Thursday, December 6, 2007
The Match-up: Chicago (+3.0) @ Washington
The Skinny: Joe Gibbs, Hall-of-Famer or no, shouldn’t get a pass for last week’s catastrophe. No truth to the rumor that he hired Chris Webber as his quality control coach for the remainder of the season. As for the Redskins players, emotion will have to carry them through this short week during which they buried their fallen teammate.
Straight Up: Washington
Against the Spread: Washington
Sunday, December 9, 2007
The Match-up: Miami (+7.0) @ Buffalo
The Skinny: So much for the bounces and the law of averages eventually turning in Miami’s favor. It’s starting to look like an 0-16 finish is not only a possibility, but a certainty.
Straight Up: Buffalo
Against the Spread: Buffalo
The Match-up: St. Louis (Off) @ Cincinnati
The Skinny: Now that they’re healthy, the Rams have won three of their last four. Now that they’re all but eliminated in the AFC, the Bengals should implode.
Straight Up: St. Louis
Against the Spread: St. Louis
The Match-up: Carolina (+10.5) @ Jacksonville
The Skinny: Congratulations to the Carolina Panthers for notching their first home victory in 2007. Granted it came against Trent Dilfer and the 49ers, but still, it’s a building block.
Straight Up: Jacksonville
Against the Spread: Jacksonville
The Match-up: Dallas (-10.5) @ Detroit
The Skinny: Remember when the Lions were 6-2 and everybody thought they’d coast into the playoffs? Now at 6-6, the S.S. Lion has taken on water and there’s no pump in sight.
Straight Up: Detroit
Against the Spread: Detroit
The Match-up: Tampa Bay (Off) @ Houston
The Skinny: Here’s why I hate picking these games early. By Sunday, Matt Schaub might be ready to go. If he’s not, Sage Rosenfels will get the nod. Thanks, NFL Network.
Straight Up: Tampa Bay
Against the Spread: Tampa Bay
The Match-up: Oakland (+10.5) @ Green Bay
The Skinny: If there’s a silver lining in Green Bay, it’s that maybe there is a future after Brett Favre. Aaron Rodgers played well in relief against Dallas and had the Packers in position to win if not for that bogus pass interference penalty called by an official 35 yards away from the play and not the two guys standing right there. Talk about the fix being in…
Straight Up: Green Bay
Against the Spread: Oakland
The Match-up: San Diego (Pick) @ Tennessee
The Skinny: Albert Haynesworth for MVP? The Titans DT missed the previous three games, which Tennessee lost. Haynesworth returns, and the Titans defeat Houston and keep their AFC wild card chances alive. Sounds pretty valuable to me.
Straight Up: San Diego
Against the Spread: San Diego
The Match-up: New York Giants (+3.0) @ Philadelphia
The Skinny: Two weeks ago, the Eagles were giving the Patriots everything they could handle in Foxboro and everyone was back in their corner. Last week, A.J. Feeley did his best Eli Manning impression, tossing four picks and forcing everyone off the Eagles bandwagon. Donovan McNabb should return this week, but it may be too little too late.
Straight Up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia
The Match-up: Minnesota (-9.0) @ San Francisco
The Skinny: The one question mark regarding the Vikings and their playoff chances was the play of QB Tavaris Jackson. Well, over the last three games (all Viking wins), Jackson has completed 76 percent of his passes (45/58) for 504 yards, thrown for three scores, and has an average QB rating of 109.8. If he keeps this up, that question mark will become an exclamation point.
Straight Up: Minnesota
Against the Spread: San Francisco
The Match-up: Arizona (+7.0) @ Seattle
The Skinny: All the talk in the NFC is about Dallas and Green Bay. Meanwhile, the Seahawks are 8-4, playing well defensively, and starting to get healthy on offense. Matt Hasselbeck is having an outstanding season. Seattle may just wind up in the NFC Championship game.
Straight Up: Seattle
Against the Spread: Seattle
The Match-up: Kansas City (+6.5) @ Denver
The Skinny: While on record as not being a huge believer in the 2007 Broncos, I’ll take my chances at home with Jay Cutler and Travis Henry against Tyler Thigpen on the road. In case you didn’t know (and why would you?), Thigpen is the third-string QB in Kansas City and will probably start this week. Tyler Thigpen? Seriously?
Straight Up: Denver
Against the Spread: Denver
The Match-up: Pittsburgh (+10.5) @ New England
The Skinny: If the last two weeks are any indication, the Patriots will get the Steelers’ best shot, be trailing in the fourth quarter, get the benefit of a few calls, take the lead on a disputed touchdown by Jabar Gaffney, and escape with a win. Either that or the Steelers will absolutely crush them. Hoping for the latter, expecting the former.
Straight Up: New England
Against the Spread: Pittsburgh
The Match-up: Cleveland (-3.0) @ New York Jets
The Skinny: Yes, Kellen Winslow was forced out and his touchdown should have counted. No, it shouldn’t have even come down to that.
Straight Up: Cleveland
Against the Spread: Cleveland
The Match-up: Indianapolis (-9.0) @ Baltimore
The Skinny: As A.J. Feeley and the Eagles could tell you, it’s hard to play with the same intensity a week after expending everything to try and knock off New England. Monday’s loss will still be fresh in the minds of the Ravens, and the Colts will take advantage.
Straight Up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Indianapolis
Monday, December 10, 2007
The Match-up: New Orleans (-4.0) @ Atlanta
The Skinny: NFL coaches are smart (even Wade Phillips). They even outsmart themselves sometimes. How else can you explain Sean Payton calling a reverse toss sweep with the Saints nursing a three-point lead with about three minutes to go? Of course, the play was botched, Tampa recovered, and the Buccaneers scored the game-winning touchdown. That play and loss may have cost the Saints a shot at the division.
Straight Up: New Orleans
Against the Spread: New Orleans
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Week 13: 7-9 straight up; 6-10 against the spread
Season: 110-82 (.573); 86-95-11 (.475)
Thursday, December 06, 2007
Thursday, November 29, 2007
The Week 13 Picks
"You see? You See? He’s not a machine. He’s a man! He’s a man!" – Rocky IV
That quote best describes my overwhelming thought while watching the 24-point underdog Eagles go toe-to-toe with the Patriots on Sunday. The Eagles, playing the role of Rocky (which is only fitting), had the seemingly invincible Patriots (Ivan Drago) on the ropes. They had everyone outside of Boston in their corner. They were on a mission, and they weren’t going to be denied.
Not by Jabar Gaffney and his out-of-bounds touchdown (that mysteriously wasn’t reviewed).
Not by Tom Brady’s bobble-head act which drew a couple of offsides calls.
Not by Randy Moss and his offensive pass interference.
I was so confident that after Laurence Maroney scored to give the Patriots a 31-28 lead with seven minutes to go, I was certain the Eagles were going to drive down the field and score the winning touchdown. In fact, I started crafting my "I told you so" e-mail to everyone that doubted me when I said the Birds would win the game.
Long story short, the Patriots held on to win. Still, the Eagles had earned the respect of the Patriots, the NFL, and perhaps more importantly the people of Philadelphia.
The aftermath of that game resulted in two popular misconceptions:
1. The Eagles had unveiled the blue print for beating New England to the rest of the NFL – while some of the Patriots’ deficiencies were exposed. The Eagles had a perfect game plan on offense, using the middle of the field almost exclusively. In theory, any team can do this. The difference was on defense, where the Eagles constantly pressured Brady and played press man coverage on Moss, which took him out of the game. Not every team has the personnel to match up with New England as well as the Eagles do. Even employing the same game plan does not guarantee future opponents like Baltimore and the Giants success.
2. If the Eagles play as well as they did against New England, they should win out – they key word, of course, is "if." Will the Andy Reid continue to coach as if he’s got nothing to lose? Will the players be motivated to play Seattle, New Orleans, and Buffalo, against whom they’re likely to be favored? There’s another major variable here, namely who quarterbacks this team for the rest of the season?
Not counting Thanksgiving night, this week begins the NFL Network’s live game broadcasts, which are seemingly available in only 10% of households. Great idea, NFL. The NHL on Versus thinks this is a bad idea.
Thursday, November 29, 2007
The Match-up: Green Bay (+7.0) @ Dallas
The Skinny: If Indianapolis-New England was Super Bowl 41.5, what would you call 10-1 Green Bay at 10-1 Dallas? Hopefully we call it Brett Favre’s first ever victory at the toilet that is Texas Stadium.
Straight Up: Green Bay
Against the Spread: Green Bay
Sunday, December 2, 2007
The Match-up: New York Jets (+1.5) @ Miami
The Skinny: OK, the fact that Miami is favored in this game tells me something. Basically, if they don’t win this one, they’re looking at 0-16, and perhaps LSU’s Glenn Dorsey.
Straight Up: Miami
Against the Spread: Miami
The Match-up: Detroit (+3.5) @ Minnesota
The Skinny: Don’t look now, but the Vikings have won three of their last four and, at 5-6, are in the wild card hunt in the NFC. I think some guy gave you that one back in September.
Straight Up: Minnesota
Against the Spread: Minnesota
The Match-up: Seattle (+3.0) @ Philadelphia
The Skinny: The sad thing for me, as a huge Donovan McNabb fan, is that this is starting to look like his last season with the Eagles.
Straight Up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia
The Match-up: Houston (+3.5) @ Tennessee
The Skinny: Tennessee frightens me from a gambling perspective. For that matter, so does Houston. I haven’t been able to get an accurate read on either of these teams all year. One week they look like playoff contenders, the next they get run off the field by an inferior opponent. I have to go with Vegas on this one, because quite frankly I don’t have a clue.
Straight Up: Tennessee
Against the Spread: Tennessee
The Match-up: Jacksonville (+6.5) @ Indianapolis
The Skinny: How about the Jaguars for a dark horse AFC team? They’ve got a very good defense, a great running game, and efficient quarterback who doesn’t make mistakes. Sounds like a winning formula to me.
Straight Up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Jacksonville
The Match-up: Buffalo (+5.5) @ Washington
The Skinny: In the wake of the murder of safety Sean Taylor, the Redskins are slated for two games over the next nine days. Not sure if they’ll be emotionally high or drained. I’ve got to figure the ‘Skins will rally around their fallen teammate, at least this week. R.I.P., Sean.
Straight Up: Washington
Against the Spread: Washington
The Match-up: San Diego (-5.5) @ Kansas City
The Skinny: The Chiefs fell to Oakland by three last week when coach Herm Edwards opted to go for it on 4th and 1 instead of attempting the 41-yard field goal. Um, coach? YOU PLAY TO TIE THE GAME! Hello?
Straight Up: San Diego
Against the Spread: San Diego
The Match-up: San Francisco (+3.0) @ Carolina
The Skinny: The Panthers are a mess right now. Let’s start with the fact that they haven’t won a home game in a calendar year. Steve Smith has a hamstring injury and is doubtful. Not that it matters with the guys they’re running out there at quarterback. And, Coach John Fox is rumored to be on the outs. I’ll take the Niners, who welcome Frank Gore back from the witness protection program. Wonder if he was hanging with Shaun Alexander.
Straight Up: San Francisco
Against the Spread: San Francisco
The Match-up: Atlanta (Off) @ St. Louis
The Skinny: I’d be more excited about the Rams if they hadn’t just coughed up a 19-7 lead at home last week. Or if they didn’t have to roll Gus Frerotte out there at quarterback.
Straight Up: St. Louis
Against the Spread: St. Louis
The Match-up: Cleveland (Pick) @ Arizona
The Skinny: Speaking of coughing things up, I don’t ever recall seeing a team lose in overtime because the quarterback fumbled the ball in his own end zone and the defense recovered for the game-winning score. Ladies and gentlemen, your 2007 Arizona Cardinals!
Straight Up: Cleveland
Against the Spread: Cleveland
The Match-up: Denver (-3.5) @ Oakland
The Skinny: If Denver misses the playoffs by a game, they can point squarely to last week’s tank job against the Bears in Chicago. Memo to Mike Shanahan – you may want to kick it away from Devin Hester.
Straight Up: Denver
Against the Spread: Denver
The Match-up: Tampa Bay (+3.0) @ New Orleans
The Skinny: If the Buccaneers can beat the Saints, they’ll open a three-game lead in the NFC South with four games to play. But the Saints have battled back to 5-6 after their 0-4 start, so I don’t expect them to go away without a fight.
Straight Up: New Orleans
Against the Spread: New Orleans
The Match-up: New York Giants (-1.5) @ Chicago
The Skinny: Can we officially label Eli Manning a bust yet? I’m not sure Cooper Manning could throw four interceptions with three going the other way for scores.
Straight Up: Chicago
Against the Spread: Chicago
The Match-up: Cincinnati (+7.0) @ Pittsburgh
The Skinny: Nice to see Ocho Cinco breaking out of his scoring drought with three touchdowns last week. Still, I’m not sure I understand the celebration. Hijacking the TV camera? Not really funny, OC.
Straight Up: Pittsburgh
Against the Spread: Pittsburgh
Monday, December 3, 2007
The Match-up: New England (-20.5) @ Baltimore
The Skinny: Maybe the Eagles game last week was more of a wake-up call to the Patriots than it was a blueprint for the rest of the league. Either way, it wouldn’t surprise me to see them hang 56 on a Baltimore defense that is a shell of its former self.
Straight Up: New England
Against the Spread: New England
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Week 12: 8-8 straight up; 9-7 against the spread
Season: 103-73 (.585); 80-85-11 (.485)
That quote best describes my overwhelming thought while watching the 24-point underdog Eagles go toe-to-toe with the Patriots on Sunday. The Eagles, playing the role of Rocky (which is only fitting), had the seemingly invincible Patriots (Ivan Drago) on the ropes. They had everyone outside of Boston in their corner. They were on a mission, and they weren’t going to be denied.
Not by Jabar Gaffney and his out-of-bounds touchdown (that mysteriously wasn’t reviewed).
Not by Tom Brady’s bobble-head act which drew a couple of offsides calls.
Not by Randy Moss and his offensive pass interference.
I was so confident that after Laurence Maroney scored to give the Patriots a 31-28 lead with seven minutes to go, I was certain the Eagles were going to drive down the field and score the winning touchdown. In fact, I started crafting my "I told you so" e-mail to everyone that doubted me when I said the Birds would win the game.
Long story short, the Patriots held on to win. Still, the Eagles had earned the respect of the Patriots, the NFL, and perhaps more importantly the people of Philadelphia.
The aftermath of that game resulted in two popular misconceptions:
1. The Eagles had unveiled the blue print for beating New England to the rest of the NFL – while some of the Patriots’ deficiencies were exposed. The Eagles had a perfect game plan on offense, using the middle of the field almost exclusively. In theory, any team can do this. The difference was on defense, where the Eagles constantly pressured Brady and played press man coverage on Moss, which took him out of the game. Not every team has the personnel to match up with New England as well as the Eagles do. Even employing the same game plan does not guarantee future opponents like Baltimore and the Giants success.
2. If the Eagles play as well as they did against New England, they should win out – they key word, of course, is "if." Will the Andy Reid continue to coach as if he’s got nothing to lose? Will the players be motivated to play Seattle, New Orleans, and Buffalo, against whom they’re likely to be favored? There’s another major variable here, namely who quarterbacks this team for the rest of the season?
Not counting Thanksgiving night, this week begins the NFL Network’s live game broadcasts, which are seemingly available in only 10% of households. Great idea, NFL. The NHL on Versus thinks this is a bad idea.
Thursday, November 29, 2007
The Match-up: Green Bay (+7.0) @ Dallas
The Skinny: If Indianapolis-New England was Super Bowl 41.5, what would you call 10-1 Green Bay at 10-1 Dallas? Hopefully we call it Brett Favre’s first ever victory at the toilet that is Texas Stadium.
Straight Up: Green Bay
Against the Spread: Green Bay
Sunday, December 2, 2007
The Match-up: New York Jets (+1.5) @ Miami
The Skinny: OK, the fact that Miami is favored in this game tells me something. Basically, if they don’t win this one, they’re looking at 0-16, and perhaps LSU’s Glenn Dorsey.
Straight Up: Miami
Against the Spread: Miami
The Match-up: Detroit (+3.5) @ Minnesota
The Skinny: Don’t look now, but the Vikings have won three of their last four and, at 5-6, are in the wild card hunt in the NFC. I think some guy gave you that one back in September.
Straight Up: Minnesota
Against the Spread: Minnesota
The Match-up: Seattle (+3.0) @ Philadelphia
The Skinny: The sad thing for me, as a huge Donovan McNabb fan, is that this is starting to look like his last season with the Eagles.
Straight Up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia
The Match-up: Houston (+3.5) @ Tennessee
The Skinny: Tennessee frightens me from a gambling perspective. For that matter, so does Houston. I haven’t been able to get an accurate read on either of these teams all year. One week they look like playoff contenders, the next they get run off the field by an inferior opponent. I have to go with Vegas on this one, because quite frankly I don’t have a clue.
Straight Up: Tennessee
Against the Spread: Tennessee
The Match-up: Jacksonville (+6.5) @ Indianapolis
The Skinny: How about the Jaguars for a dark horse AFC team? They’ve got a very good defense, a great running game, and efficient quarterback who doesn’t make mistakes. Sounds like a winning formula to me.
Straight Up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Jacksonville
The Match-up: Buffalo (+5.5) @ Washington
The Skinny: In the wake of the murder of safety Sean Taylor, the Redskins are slated for two games over the next nine days. Not sure if they’ll be emotionally high or drained. I’ve got to figure the ‘Skins will rally around their fallen teammate, at least this week. R.I.P., Sean.
Straight Up: Washington
Against the Spread: Washington
The Match-up: San Diego (-5.5) @ Kansas City
The Skinny: The Chiefs fell to Oakland by three last week when coach Herm Edwards opted to go for it on 4th and 1 instead of attempting the 41-yard field goal. Um, coach? YOU PLAY TO TIE THE GAME! Hello?
Straight Up: San Diego
Against the Spread: San Diego
The Match-up: San Francisco (+3.0) @ Carolina
The Skinny: The Panthers are a mess right now. Let’s start with the fact that they haven’t won a home game in a calendar year. Steve Smith has a hamstring injury and is doubtful. Not that it matters with the guys they’re running out there at quarterback. And, Coach John Fox is rumored to be on the outs. I’ll take the Niners, who welcome Frank Gore back from the witness protection program. Wonder if he was hanging with Shaun Alexander.
Straight Up: San Francisco
Against the Spread: San Francisco
The Match-up: Atlanta (Off) @ St. Louis
The Skinny: I’d be more excited about the Rams if they hadn’t just coughed up a 19-7 lead at home last week. Or if they didn’t have to roll Gus Frerotte out there at quarterback.
Straight Up: St. Louis
Against the Spread: St. Louis
The Match-up: Cleveland (Pick) @ Arizona
The Skinny: Speaking of coughing things up, I don’t ever recall seeing a team lose in overtime because the quarterback fumbled the ball in his own end zone and the defense recovered for the game-winning score. Ladies and gentlemen, your 2007 Arizona Cardinals!
Straight Up: Cleveland
Against the Spread: Cleveland
The Match-up: Denver (-3.5) @ Oakland
The Skinny: If Denver misses the playoffs by a game, they can point squarely to last week’s tank job against the Bears in Chicago. Memo to Mike Shanahan – you may want to kick it away from Devin Hester.
Straight Up: Denver
Against the Spread: Denver
The Match-up: Tampa Bay (+3.0) @ New Orleans
The Skinny: If the Buccaneers can beat the Saints, they’ll open a three-game lead in the NFC South with four games to play. But the Saints have battled back to 5-6 after their 0-4 start, so I don’t expect them to go away without a fight.
Straight Up: New Orleans
Against the Spread: New Orleans
The Match-up: New York Giants (-1.5) @ Chicago
The Skinny: Can we officially label Eli Manning a bust yet? I’m not sure Cooper Manning could throw four interceptions with three going the other way for scores.
Straight Up: Chicago
Against the Spread: Chicago
The Match-up: Cincinnati (+7.0) @ Pittsburgh
The Skinny: Nice to see Ocho Cinco breaking out of his scoring drought with three touchdowns last week. Still, I’m not sure I understand the celebration. Hijacking the TV camera? Not really funny, OC.
Straight Up: Pittsburgh
Against the Spread: Pittsburgh
Monday, December 3, 2007
The Match-up: New England (-20.5) @ Baltimore
The Skinny: Maybe the Eagles game last week was more of a wake-up call to the Patriots than it was a blueprint for the rest of the league. Either way, it wouldn’t surprise me to see them hang 56 on a Baltimore defense that is a shell of its former self.
Straight Up: New England
Against the Spread: New England
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Week 12: 8-8 straight up; 9-7 against the spread
Season: 103-73 (.585); 80-85-11 (.485)
Wednesday, November 21, 2007
The Week 12 Picks
As promised, here are the brief Thanksgiving week picks (home team in CAPS).
Thursday, November 22, 2007
Green Bay (-3.5) over DETROIT - This goes against my Thanksgiving tradition, but the Packers are too good to overlook.
New York Jets (+14.0) over DALLAS - Picking against Dallas is as much a Thanksgiving tradition as turkey, mashed potatoes, and suffering through the annual Thanksiving parade just to catch a glimpse of Kelly Ripa.
ATLANTA (+11.5) over Indianapolis - I like the Colts straight up, but with Harrison and Freeney on the shelf, they don't blow teams out.
Sunday, November 25, 2007
JACKSONVILLE (-7.5) over Buffalo - Buffalo hasn't been the same since the Dallas loss.
CLEVELAND (-3.5) over Houston - In New York, it's pronounced "Hows-ton."
KANSAS CITY (-5.5) over Oakland - Put JaMarcus Russell in, already!
ST. LOUIS (+3.0) over Seattle - Seattle typically struggles on the road, and the Rams have won two straight.
Minnesota (+7.0) over NEW YORK GIANTS - I like the Giants to win a close one.
TAMPA BAY (-3.0) over Washington - Jon Gruden to Michigan?
New Orleans (+3.0) over CAROLINA - Without Steve Smith, the Panthers offense really struggles.
Tennessee (Even) over CINCINNATI - I think I could score on the Bengals' defense.
San Francisco (+10.5) over ARIZONA - The Cardinals should win, though.
SAN DIEGO (-9.5) over Baltimore - The Ravens are awful.
CHICAGO (-2.5) over Denver - The Broncos aren't much better.
Philadelphia (+22.0) over NEW ENGLAND - Straight up AND against the spread!!!
Monday, November 26, 2007
PITTSBURGH (-16.0) over Miami - The Steelers severely underestimated the lowly Jets last week. No way Omar Epps lets them overlook the winless Dolphins.
Happy Thanksgiving to you and yours!
Thursday, November 22, 2007
Green Bay (-3.5) over DETROIT - This goes against my Thanksgiving tradition, but the Packers are too good to overlook.
New York Jets (+14.0) over DALLAS - Picking against Dallas is as much a Thanksgiving tradition as turkey, mashed potatoes, and suffering through the annual Thanksiving parade just to catch a glimpse of Kelly Ripa.
ATLANTA (+11.5) over Indianapolis - I like the Colts straight up, but with Harrison and Freeney on the shelf, they don't blow teams out.
Sunday, November 25, 2007
JACKSONVILLE (-7.5) over Buffalo - Buffalo hasn't been the same since the Dallas loss.
CLEVELAND (-3.5) over Houston - In New York, it's pronounced "Hows-ton."
KANSAS CITY (-5.5) over Oakland - Put JaMarcus Russell in, already!
ST. LOUIS (+3.0) over Seattle - Seattle typically struggles on the road, and the Rams have won two straight.
Minnesota (+7.0) over NEW YORK GIANTS - I like the Giants to win a close one.
TAMPA BAY (-3.0) over Washington - Jon Gruden to Michigan?
New Orleans (+3.0) over CAROLINA - Without Steve Smith, the Panthers offense really struggles.
Tennessee (Even) over CINCINNATI - I think I could score on the Bengals' defense.
San Francisco (+10.5) over ARIZONA - The Cardinals should win, though.
SAN DIEGO (-9.5) over Baltimore - The Ravens are awful.
CHICAGO (-2.5) over Denver - The Broncos aren't much better.
Philadelphia (+22.0) over NEW ENGLAND - Straight up AND against the spread!!!
Monday, November 26, 2007
PITTSBURGH (-16.0) over Miami - The Steelers severely underestimated the lowly Jets last week. No way Omar Epps lets them overlook the winless Dolphins.
Happy Thanksgiving to you and yours!
Friday, November 16, 2007
The Week 11 Picks
Apologies for the brevity of these picks, but it’s getaway day. I’m heading home for my annual Thanksgiving vacation with the family. So if you thought this week’s picks are quickies, wait until you see next week’s.
Sunday, November 18, 2007
The Match-up: San Diego (+3.0) @ Jacksonville
The Skinny: Take out the two return touchdowns by Darren Sproles and the Chargers aren’t even in that game with Indy last week. These things have a way of evening out.
Straight Up: Jacksonville
Against the Spread: Jacksonville
The Match-up: Cleveland (-3.0) @ Baltimore
The Skinny: Kyle Boller is back under center for the Ravens, who desperately need something from that side of the ball.
Straight Up: Cleveland
Against the Spread: Cleveland
The Match-up: New York Giants (-3.0) @ Detroit
The Skinny: Last week may have been the beginning of the annual Giants second-half collapse.
Straight Up: Detroit
Against the Spread: Detroit
The Match-up: New Orleans (+1.5) @ Houston
The Skinny: Remember when Vince Young torched Houston last year after they passed on drafting him? Same situation with Reggie Bush.
Straight Up: New Orleans
Against the Spread: New Orleans
The Match-up: Carolina (+9.5) @ Green Bay
The Skinny: Did you see the play where Favre threw it into double coverage last week and both Vikings had their hands on the ball, ,but it bounced off of them and Ruvell Martin caught it for a Packers touchdown? Sometimes you just get the bounces.
Straight Up: Green Bay
Against the Spread: Green Bay
The Match-up: Kansas City (+14.5) @ Indianapolis
The Skinny: The Chiefs will be without Larry Johnson, and there’s no way the Colts lose three in a row.
Straight Up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Indianapolis
The Match-up: Oakland (+5.0) @ Minnesota
The Skinny: No word on whether or not Daunte Culpepper will be chartering a sex cruise to bring him into town.
Straight Up: Oakland
Against the Spread: Oakland
The Match-up: Miami (+10.0) @ Philadelphia
The Skinny: The Birds couldn’t possibly lose to winless Miami and a rookie QB making his first NFL start, could they?
Straight Up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia
The Match-up: Tampa Bay (-3.0) @ Atlanta
The Skinny: Think about this – if the Falcons win this game, they could be a game out of the division lead. What a putrid bunch of football teams in the NFC South.
Straight Up: Tampa Bay
Against the Spread: Tampa Bay
The Match-up: Arizona (+3.0) @ Cincinnati
The Skinny: Cincinnati has to get untracked sooner or later, don’t they?
Straight Up: Cincinnati
Against the Spread: Cincinnati
The Match-up: Pittsburgh (-9.5) @ New York Jets
The Skinny: With all of the injuries in Indianapolis, I’m almost ready to crown the Steelers as the NFL’s second best team.
Straight Up: Pittsburgh
Against the Spread: Pittsburgh
The Match-up: Washington (+10.5) @ Dallas
The Skinny: Gee, let me think.
Straight Up: Washington
Against the Spread: Washington
The Match-up: St. Louis (-3.0) @ San Francisco
The Skinny: The Rams are getting healthy and showed flashes of what they can do at full power last week.
Straight Up: St. Louis
Against the Spread: St. Louis
The Match-up: Chicago (+5.5) @ Seattle
The Skinny: Rex Grossman returns from purgatory this week, but even Kyle Boller thinks that’s irrelevant.
Straight Up: Seattle
Against the Spread: Seattle
The Match-up: New England (-16.0) @ Buffalo
The Skinny: No, I don’t think the Patriots are set up for a let down. But off the bye and the highly emotional game at RCA Dome, I could see them in a tight one.
Straight Up: New England
Against the Spread: Buffalo
Monday, November 19, 2007
The Match-up: Tennessee (+2.0) @ Denver
The Skinny: So a potential playoff team in the loaded AFC is getting points? I’ll take them.
Straight Up: Tennessee
Against the Spread: Tennessee
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Week 10: 7-7 straight up; 7-6-1 against the spread
Season: 86-58; 65-70-9
Sunday, November 18, 2007
The Match-up: San Diego (+3.0) @ Jacksonville
The Skinny: Take out the two return touchdowns by Darren Sproles and the Chargers aren’t even in that game with Indy last week. These things have a way of evening out.
Straight Up: Jacksonville
Against the Spread: Jacksonville
The Match-up: Cleveland (-3.0) @ Baltimore
The Skinny: Kyle Boller is back under center for the Ravens, who desperately need something from that side of the ball.
Straight Up: Cleveland
Against the Spread: Cleveland
The Match-up: New York Giants (-3.0) @ Detroit
The Skinny: Last week may have been the beginning of the annual Giants second-half collapse.
Straight Up: Detroit
Against the Spread: Detroit
The Match-up: New Orleans (+1.5) @ Houston
The Skinny: Remember when Vince Young torched Houston last year after they passed on drafting him? Same situation with Reggie Bush.
Straight Up: New Orleans
Against the Spread: New Orleans
The Match-up: Carolina (+9.5) @ Green Bay
The Skinny: Did you see the play where Favre threw it into double coverage last week and both Vikings had their hands on the ball, ,but it bounced off of them and Ruvell Martin caught it for a Packers touchdown? Sometimes you just get the bounces.
Straight Up: Green Bay
Against the Spread: Green Bay
The Match-up: Kansas City (+14.5) @ Indianapolis
The Skinny: The Chiefs will be without Larry Johnson, and there’s no way the Colts lose three in a row.
Straight Up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Indianapolis
The Match-up: Oakland (+5.0) @ Minnesota
The Skinny: No word on whether or not Daunte Culpepper will be chartering a sex cruise to bring him into town.
Straight Up: Oakland
Against the Spread: Oakland
The Match-up: Miami (+10.0) @ Philadelphia
The Skinny: The Birds couldn’t possibly lose to winless Miami and a rookie QB making his first NFL start, could they?
Straight Up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia
The Match-up: Tampa Bay (-3.0) @ Atlanta
The Skinny: Think about this – if the Falcons win this game, they could be a game out of the division lead. What a putrid bunch of football teams in the NFC South.
Straight Up: Tampa Bay
Against the Spread: Tampa Bay
The Match-up: Arizona (+3.0) @ Cincinnati
The Skinny: Cincinnati has to get untracked sooner or later, don’t they?
Straight Up: Cincinnati
Against the Spread: Cincinnati
The Match-up: Pittsburgh (-9.5) @ New York Jets
The Skinny: With all of the injuries in Indianapolis, I’m almost ready to crown the Steelers as the NFL’s second best team.
Straight Up: Pittsburgh
Against the Spread: Pittsburgh
The Match-up: Washington (+10.5) @ Dallas
The Skinny: Gee, let me think.
Straight Up: Washington
Against the Spread: Washington
The Match-up: St. Louis (-3.0) @ San Francisco
The Skinny: The Rams are getting healthy and showed flashes of what they can do at full power last week.
Straight Up: St. Louis
Against the Spread: St. Louis
The Match-up: Chicago (+5.5) @ Seattle
The Skinny: Rex Grossman returns from purgatory this week, but even Kyle Boller thinks that’s irrelevant.
Straight Up: Seattle
Against the Spread: Seattle
The Match-up: New England (-16.0) @ Buffalo
The Skinny: No, I don’t think the Patriots are set up for a let down. But off the bye and the highly emotional game at RCA Dome, I could see them in a tight one.
Straight Up: New England
Against the Spread: Buffalo
Monday, November 19, 2007
The Match-up: Tennessee (+2.0) @ Denver
The Skinny: So a potential playoff team in the loaded AFC is getting points? I’ll take them.
Straight Up: Tennessee
Against the Spread: Tennessee
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Week 10: 7-7 straight up; 7-6-1 against the spread
Season: 86-58; 65-70-9
Friday, November 09, 2007
The Week 10 Picks
They say bad things come in threes. After last weekend, I believe them.
I spent the better part of Saturday afternoon watching the alleged offensive genius that is Charlie Weis channel his inner Bob Davie, make questionable call after questionable call, and single-handedly cost the Irish a game against Navy. In case you’ve been living under a rock, I’m sure you heard that the loss snapped Notre Dame’s 43-year winning streak over the Midshipmen.
In the grand scheme of things, the loss serves as just another blemish on an utterly disappointing season. What worries me is how they lost. Notre Dame was leading 21-20 and just forced Navy into a field gold attempt, which was no good. At that point in time, if the offense could drive the length of the field, eat up a lot of clock, and score a touchdown, Notre Dame would have led by eight and put Navy in the precarious position of needing a touchdown and two-point conversion just to force overtime, understanding that Navy’s triple option offense is heavily run-oriented and not built for a quick strike.
On first down, Weis called a pass play. Incomplete.
On second down, he called another pass play. QB Evan Sharpley was sacked, put the ball on the ground, and Navy scooped it up and ran it in for a touchdown. Tack on the deuce, and now the Irish are trailing by seven.
After the ensuing kickoff, Notre Dame started a clock-killing, run-first drive that culminated in a touchdown to tie the game (do that with the previous possession and the Irish more than likely win). Then they get the ball back again and march into field goal range. Fourth and eight, less than a minute to go, and Notre Dame can kick a 41-yard field goal to win the game.
Except that Weis opted to go for it.
Sharpley gets sacked, Navy runs out the majority of the clock, and three overtimes later, the Naval Academy is cancelling Monday classes so that the students can continue the celebration.
Look, Charlie Weis knows more about football than I ever will. I’m sure there was a method to his madness. But mismanaging games like that is what caused me to boycott ND games by the end of the Malibu Ken Davie era (I give you Davie calling a corner blitz on 4th and 14 with Michigan State at their own 32, only to watch Herb Haygood run a slant behind the blitzing corner and go 68 yards for the game-winning score). Hopefully this was an anomaly and not a pattern.
So I was hoping Sunday night’s Eagles-Cowboys game would provide some measure of redemption. After all, the Eagles were 12-4 against the Cowboys during the Andy Reid administration, and they should have played with some desperation with their season hanging in the balance.
First play from scrimmage, Donovan McNabb scrambles, gets hit from behind, coughs up the rock, and Dallas is in the end zone within two minutes. The air was out of the balloon, and the Birds got rolled. It didn’t help that TOFU went for 174 yards and a score on ten grabs. Bastard.
The loss dropped the Eagles to 3-5 and led to Philadelphia fans and media calling for Kevin Kolb. Reid has said he is sticking with McNabb…for now. In my estimation, it’s still too early for Reid to pull the trigger on that move, which would in essence end McNabb’s tenure in Philly. Kolb’s time will come, but it’s not now.
What’s the third bad thing? Take your pick – the Northeast Box Company falls for the first time in three weeks (Antonio Gates, one catch for ten yards?); the Flyers are shut out by the Rangers on Monday night; the Steelers crush the hapless Ravens, rendering my last minute switch to Baltimore +9 futile.
Maybe bad things come in fives.
Sunday, November 11, 2007
The Match-up: Cleveland (+9.5) @ Pittsburgh
The Skinny: Even if you’re not from either city, you’ve got to love Browns-Steelers. Pittsburgh manhandled Baltimore on Monday and is easily the third best team in the AFC. But this isn’t the same Cleveland team that the Steelers feasted on in Week 1.
Straight Up: Pittsburgh
Against the Spread: Cleveland
The Match-up: Minnesota (+6.0) @ Green Bay
The Skinny: I believe Adrian Peterson has locked up the Rookie of the Year award (as some guy predicted he would way back in August). He’s halfway to Eric Dickerson’s single-season record 2,105 rushing yards.
Straight Up: Green Bay
Against the Spread: Minnesota
The Match-up: Philadelphia (+3.0) @ Washington
The Skinny: Okay, NOW the Eagles have no margin for error. Beat Washington and Miami in consecutive weeks (doable) to get back to .500, then figure out how the final six games of the year will play out. It’s time to put the puzzle together.
Straight Up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia
The Match-up: Jacksonville (+4.0) @ Tennessee
The Skinny: Two very good defenses plus two relatively anemic offenses equals a closely contested low scoring football game.
Straight Up: Tennessee
Against the Spread: Jacksonville
The Match-up: Atlanta (+4.0) @ Carolina
The Skinny: Carolina should have Vinny Testaverde back under center, which should be music to Steve Smith’s ears.
Straight Up: Carolina
Against the Spread: Carolina
The Match-up: Denver (+3.0) @ Kansas City
The Skinny: If Larry Johnson can’t go with a bad ankle, Priest Holmes will get the starting nod at running back. What an inspiring story, the kind we don’t see enough in sports anymore.
Straight Up: Kansas City
Against the Spread: Kansas City
The Match-up: Buffalo (-3.0) @ Miami
The Skinny: So maybe the Bills aren’t as bad as expected. They’re 4-4 and could be 6-2 had they not lost to Denver and Dallas on the last play of the game after outplaying them both. As long as they don’t get caught looking ahead to New England next week, they should roll the winless Dolphins.
Straight Up: Buffalo
Against the Spread: Buffalo
The Match-up: St. Louis (+11.5) @ New Orleans
The Skinny: The streaking Saints have their sites set on the NFC South title and a return to the playoffs. The Rams, on the other hand, should have their sites set on LSU’s Glenn Dorsey or Michigan’s Jake Long to shore up one of their lines.
Straight Up: New Orleans
Against the Spread: St. Louis
The Match-up: Cincinnati (+4.0) @ Baltimore
The Skinny: So Chris Henry was reinstated by Roger Goodell, and his first day back on the job ends with an altercation with a parking lot attendant. Henry even played the "Do you know who I am?" card. Good to see that a Bengal doesn’t change his stripes.
Straight Up: Cincinnati
Against the Spread: Cincinnati
The Match-up: Chicago (-3.0) @ Oakland
The Skinny: Raiders coach Lane Kiffin said he will kick to Devin Hester in an effort to jump-start his 27th ranked kickoff coverage team. For that reason alone, I like the Bears.
Straight Up: Chicago
Against the Spread: Chicago
The Match-up: Dallas (-1.5) @ New York Giants
The Skinny: With all due respect to the Saints, the Giants are the hottest team in the NFC, having won six straight after opening the year 0-2. I guess the Giants will have to take care of the business the Eagles couldn’t a week ago.
Straight Up: New York Giants
Against the Spread: New York Giants
The Match-up: Detroit (+1.0) @ Arizona
The Skinny: Even the most optimistic Detroit fan will tell you that this is the only time the Lions will be playing in Arizona this season.
Straight Up: Detroit
Against the Spread: Detroit
The Match-up: Indianapolis (-3.5) @ San Diego
The Skinny: Just when you thought it was safe to call the Chargers a contender again, they get housed by AD and the Vikings. They could catch the Colts in a potential let-down situation coming off their crushing defeat to the Patriots, but it seems unlikely.
Straight Up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Indianapolis
Monday, November 12, 2007
The Match-up: San Francisco (+10.0) @ Seattle
The Skinny: A running back is only as good as his offensive line. Have you noticed how Shaun Alexander has declined since Steve Hutchinson left for Minnesota?
Straight Up: Seattle
Against the Spread: Seattle
Bye: Houston, New England, New York Jets, Tampa Bay
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Week 9: 10-4 straight up; 7-7 against the spread
Season: 79-51 (.608); 58-64-8 (.475)
I spent the better part of Saturday afternoon watching the alleged offensive genius that is Charlie Weis channel his inner Bob Davie, make questionable call after questionable call, and single-handedly cost the Irish a game against Navy. In case you’ve been living under a rock, I’m sure you heard that the loss snapped Notre Dame’s 43-year winning streak over the Midshipmen.
In the grand scheme of things, the loss serves as just another blemish on an utterly disappointing season. What worries me is how they lost. Notre Dame was leading 21-20 and just forced Navy into a field gold attempt, which was no good. At that point in time, if the offense could drive the length of the field, eat up a lot of clock, and score a touchdown, Notre Dame would have led by eight and put Navy in the precarious position of needing a touchdown and two-point conversion just to force overtime, understanding that Navy’s triple option offense is heavily run-oriented and not built for a quick strike.
On first down, Weis called a pass play. Incomplete.
On second down, he called another pass play. QB Evan Sharpley was sacked, put the ball on the ground, and Navy scooped it up and ran it in for a touchdown. Tack on the deuce, and now the Irish are trailing by seven.
After the ensuing kickoff, Notre Dame started a clock-killing, run-first drive that culminated in a touchdown to tie the game (do that with the previous possession and the Irish more than likely win). Then they get the ball back again and march into field goal range. Fourth and eight, less than a minute to go, and Notre Dame can kick a 41-yard field goal to win the game.
Except that Weis opted to go for it.
Sharpley gets sacked, Navy runs out the majority of the clock, and three overtimes later, the Naval Academy is cancelling Monday classes so that the students can continue the celebration.
Look, Charlie Weis knows more about football than I ever will. I’m sure there was a method to his madness. But mismanaging games like that is what caused me to boycott ND games by the end of the Malibu Ken Davie era (I give you Davie calling a corner blitz on 4th and 14 with Michigan State at their own 32, only to watch Herb Haygood run a slant behind the blitzing corner and go 68 yards for the game-winning score). Hopefully this was an anomaly and not a pattern.
So I was hoping Sunday night’s Eagles-Cowboys game would provide some measure of redemption. After all, the Eagles were 12-4 against the Cowboys during the Andy Reid administration, and they should have played with some desperation with their season hanging in the balance.
First play from scrimmage, Donovan McNabb scrambles, gets hit from behind, coughs up the rock, and Dallas is in the end zone within two minutes. The air was out of the balloon, and the Birds got rolled. It didn’t help that TOFU went for 174 yards and a score on ten grabs. Bastard.
The loss dropped the Eagles to 3-5 and led to Philadelphia fans and media calling for Kevin Kolb. Reid has said he is sticking with McNabb…for now. In my estimation, it’s still too early for Reid to pull the trigger on that move, which would in essence end McNabb’s tenure in Philly. Kolb’s time will come, but it’s not now.
What’s the third bad thing? Take your pick – the Northeast Box Company falls for the first time in three weeks (Antonio Gates, one catch for ten yards?); the Flyers are shut out by the Rangers on Monday night; the Steelers crush the hapless Ravens, rendering my last minute switch to Baltimore +9 futile.
Maybe bad things come in fives.
Sunday, November 11, 2007
The Match-up: Cleveland (+9.5) @ Pittsburgh
The Skinny: Even if you’re not from either city, you’ve got to love Browns-Steelers. Pittsburgh manhandled Baltimore on Monday and is easily the third best team in the AFC. But this isn’t the same Cleveland team that the Steelers feasted on in Week 1.
Straight Up: Pittsburgh
Against the Spread: Cleveland
The Match-up: Minnesota (+6.0) @ Green Bay
The Skinny: I believe Adrian Peterson has locked up the Rookie of the Year award (as some guy predicted he would way back in August). He’s halfway to Eric Dickerson’s single-season record 2,105 rushing yards.
Straight Up: Green Bay
Against the Spread: Minnesota
The Match-up: Philadelphia (+3.0) @ Washington
The Skinny: Okay, NOW the Eagles have no margin for error. Beat Washington and Miami in consecutive weeks (doable) to get back to .500, then figure out how the final six games of the year will play out. It’s time to put the puzzle together.
Straight Up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia
The Match-up: Jacksonville (+4.0) @ Tennessee
The Skinny: Two very good defenses plus two relatively anemic offenses equals a closely contested low scoring football game.
Straight Up: Tennessee
Against the Spread: Jacksonville
The Match-up: Atlanta (+4.0) @ Carolina
The Skinny: Carolina should have Vinny Testaverde back under center, which should be music to Steve Smith’s ears.
Straight Up: Carolina
Against the Spread: Carolina
The Match-up: Denver (+3.0) @ Kansas City
The Skinny: If Larry Johnson can’t go with a bad ankle, Priest Holmes will get the starting nod at running back. What an inspiring story, the kind we don’t see enough in sports anymore.
Straight Up: Kansas City
Against the Spread: Kansas City
The Match-up: Buffalo (-3.0) @ Miami
The Skinny: So maybe the Bills aren’t as bad as expected. They’re 4-4 and could be 6-2 had they not lost to Denver and Dallas on the last play of the game after outplaying them both. As long as they don’t get caught looking ahead to New England next week, they should roll the winless Dolphins.
Straight Up: Buffalo
Against the Spread: Buffalo
The Match-up: St. Louis (+11.5) @ New Orleans
The Skinny: The streaking Saints have their sites set on the NFC South title and a return to the playoffs. The Rams, on the other hand, should have their sites set on LSU’s Glenn Dorsey or Michigan’s Jake Long to shore up one of their lines.
Straight Up: New Orleans
Against the Spread: St. Louis
The Match-up: Cincinnati (+4.0) @ Baltimore
The Skinny: So Chris Henry was reinstated by Roger Goodell, and his first day back on the job ends with an altercation with a parking lot attendant. Henry even played the "Do you know who I am?" card. Good to see that a Bengal doesn’t change his stripes.
Straight Up: Cincinnati
Against the Spread: Cincinnati
The Match-up: Chicago (-3.0) @ Oakland
The Skinny: Raiders coach Lane Kiffin said he will kick to Devin Hester in an effort to jump-start his 27th ranked kickoff coverage team. For that reason alone, I like the Bears.
Straight Up: Chicago
Against the Spread: Chicago
The Match-up: Dallas (-1.5) @ New York Giants
The Skinny: With all due respect to the Saints, the Giants are the hottest team in the NFC, having won six straight after opening the year 0-2. I guess the Giants will have to take care of the business the Eagles couldn’t a week ago.
Straight Up: New York Giants
Against the Spread: New York Giants
The Match-up: Detroit (+1.0) @ Arizona
The Skinny: Even the most optimistic Detroit fan will tell you that this is the only time the Lions will be playing in Arizona this season.
Straight Up: Detroit
Against the Spread: Detroit
The Match-up: Indianapolis (-3.5) @ San Diego
The Skinny: Just when you thought it was safe to call the Chargers a contender again, they get housed by AD and the Vikings. They could catch the Colts in a potential let-down situation coming off their crushing defeat to the Patriots, but it seems unlikely.
Straight Up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Indianapolis
Monday, November 12, 2007
The Match-up: San Francisco (+10.0) @ Seattle
The Skinny: A running back is only as good as his offensive line. Have you noticed how Shaun Alexander has declined since Steve Hutchinson left for Minnesota?
Straight Up: Seattle
Against the Spread: Seattle
Bye: Houston, New England, New York Jets, Tampa Bay
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Week 9: 10-4 straight up; 7-7 against the spread
Season: 79-51 (.608); 58-64-8 (.475)
Friday, November 02, 2007
The Week 9 Picks
"Don’t believe the hype." – Public Enemy
I’m not sure if you know this or not, but the Patriots and Colts are both undefeated, and they play against each other this week. You’d think a game of this magnitude would generate some kind of buzz…
In all seriousness, I’m really excited to watch this game, being billed by some media outlets as "Super Bowl XLI and a half." Typically once the Super Bowl match-up is decided, I get a gut feeling about one of the participants, and then spend the next two weeks being sold on the other team to the point where I almost change my mind.
A lot of what I’ve heard lately circles around Indianapolis and how they’ve won twelve straight, including last year’s playoffs when they hoisted the Lombardi Trophy. The Colts are the home team, yet they’re an underdog. They’ve played the tougher schedule and come out unscathed. And they’ve got a defense that can challenge the mighty Patriots. So Indianapolis wins the game right?
Not quite.
Look, it’s not that everything I just mentioned isn’t true, because it absolutely is. But I’ve watched both teams play this season, and the Pats have passed my eye test. They aren’t just beating teams, they’re demoralizing them. They’re absolutely unstoppable, and I won’t be fooled by all of the pro-Colts hype.
And can we stop with all of this nonsense about the Patriots running up the score? It’s the NFL. There is no such thing as running up the score. To me, it’s a lot like the excessive celebration stuff. If you don’t want a guy dancing on your team’s logo in the end zone, keep him from scoring. If you’ve got a problem with a team hanging half a hundred on you, play some defense. After all, it’s obvious the Bill Belichick won’t be calling off the dogs this year.
Oh yeah, it’s also Dallas week in Philly, and I’ve been asked by more than a few people to dial up an Eagles win, including my man Giants Jim from the neighborhood. The funny thing is, this is the kind of game that the Birds will win, when nobody’s giving them a shot. A Week 7 home game against the Bears of no real significance except for the attendance of one particular fan? Come from ahead to lose by allowing a 97-yard drive in 1:43 with no timeouts. 6-1 Dallas comes to town as the odds-on favorite in the NFC?
Watch what happens.
Sunday, November 4, 2007
The Match-up: Arizona (+3.5) @ Tampa Bay
The Skinny: Jeff Garcia and the Bucs turned the ball over uncharacteristically last week in losing to Jacksonville. If they can cut out the miscues, they should be able to handle the Cardinals.
Straight Up: Tampa Bay
Against the Spread: Tampa Bay
The Match-up: Denver (+3.0) @ Detroit
The Skinny: We’ve gone down this road with Denver already. They’re simply not that good. Detroit, on the other hand, is halfway to the ten wins predicted by Jon Kitna in the pre-season. The Lions still have two games against Green Bay, plus dates with Dallas, the Giants. Not sure they’re getting to ten, but they’re still better than the Broncos.
Straight Up: Detroit
Against the Spread: Detroit
The Match-up: Carolina (+4.0) @ Tennessee
The Skinny: The Panthers are winless in three tries at home this season, yet they’re a perfect 4-0 on the road. So much for home field advantage.
Straight Up: Carolina
Against the Spread: Carolina
The Match-up: Green Bay (+2.0) @ Kansas City
The Skinny: The Packers may have solved their running game issues with former Notre Dame great Ryan Grant. I know Arrowhead is a tough place to play, but if you’re going to give me points with a 6-1 team, I’ll take them nine times out of ten.
Straight Up: Green Bay
Against the Spread: Green Bay
The Match-up: San Diego (-7.0) @ Minnesota
The Skinny: The upside-down world of the NFL is starting to right itself, as the Chargers are back beating teams with LaDanian Tomlinson dominating and Philip Rivers throwing the ball sparingly. As long as he keeps throwing it to Antonio Gates, I’m alright with it.
Straight Up: San Diego
Against the Spread: San Diego
The Match-up: Jacksonville (+3.0) @ New Orleans
The Skinny: Speaking of righting the ship, the Saints are 3-0 since I implored their fans to break out the brown paper bags and bring back the "Ain’ts." You’re welcome.
Straight Up: New Orleans
Against the Spread: New Orleans
The Match-up: San Francisco (+3.5) @ Atlanta
The Skinny: Memo to Bobby Petrino – Embrace the youth movement and hand the ball to Jerious Norwood 25 times a game. Please?
Straight Up: Atlanta
Against the Spread: Atlanta
The Match-up: Washington (-3.5) @ New York Jets
The Skinny: ESPN Radio’s Freddie Coleman broke out this gem last week: "JETS" now stands for "Just End The Season." Kellen Clemens finally gets the starting nod for gang green.
Straight Up: Washington
Against the Spread: Washington
The Match-up: Cincinnati (+1.0) @ Buffalo
The Skinny: Yes, I’m taking J.P. Losman over Carson Palmer. The Bengals train careened off the track, and the players seem so uninspired it’s almost frightening.
Straight Up: Buffalo
Against the Spread: Buffalo
The Match-up: Seattle (+1.5) @ Cleveland
The Skinny: I think I saw a picture of Shaun Alexander on the side of a milk carton the other day. Where has he disappeared to? Cleveland’s run defense should have Alexander coming out of hiding.
Straight Up: Seattle
Against the Spread: Seattle
The Match-up: New England (-5.0) @ Indianapolis
The Skinny: I think there’s been enough said about this game already.
Straight Up: New England
Against the Spread: New England
The Match-up: Houston (+3.0) @ Oakland
The Skinny: You mean Josh McCown vs. Sage Rosenfels doesn’t earn top billing on CBS this weekend?
Straight Up: Houston
Against the Spread: Houston
The Match-up: Dallas (-3.5) @ Philadelphia
The Skinny: The bottom line is the Eagles need this one. They need it for their playoff chances. They need it for their embattled head coach. They need it for their fans.
Straight Up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia
Monday, November 5, 2007
The Match-up: Baltimore (+9.0) @ Pittsburgh
The Skinny: The Steelers are at home and will be breaking out the throwback jerseys which will get the crowd all riled up. But this line seems a little high to me.
Straight Up: Pittsburgh
Against the Spread: Baltimore
Bye: Chicago, Miami, New York Giants, St. Louis
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Week 8: 9-4 straight up; 9-4 against the spread
Season: 69-47; 51-57-8
I’m not sure if you know this or not, but the Patriots and Colts are both undefeated, and they play against each other this week. You’d think a game of this magnitude would generate some kind of buzz…
In all seriousness, I’m really excited to watch this game, being billed by some media outlets as "Super Bowl XLI and a half." Typically once the Super Bowl match-up is decided, I get a gut feeling about one of the participants, and then spend the next two weeks being sold on the other team to the point where I almost change my mind.
A lot of what I’ve heard lately circles around Indianapolis and how they’ve won twelve straight, including last year’s playoffs when they hoisted the Lombardi Trophy. The Colts are the home team, yet they’re an underdog. They’ve played the tougher schedule and come out unscathed. And they’ve got a defense that can challenge the mighty Patriots. So Indianapolis wins the game right?
Not quite.
Look, it’s not that everything I just mentioned isn’t true, because it absolutely is. But I’ve watched both teams play this season, and the Pats have passed my eye test. They aren’t just beating teams, they’re demoralizing them. They’re absolutely unstoppable, and I won’t be fooled by all of the pro-Colts hype.
And can we stop with all of this nonsense about the Patriots running up the score? It’s the NFL. There is no such thing as running up the score. To me, it’s a lot like the excessive celebration stuff. If you don’t want a guy dancing on your team’s logo in the end zone, keep him from scoring. If you’ve got a problem with a team hanging half a hundred on you, play some defense. After all, it’s obvious the Bill Belichick won’t be calling off the dogs this year.
Oh yeah, it’s also Dallas week in Philly, and I’ve been asked by more than a few people to dial up an Eagles win, including my man Giants Jim from the neighborhood. The funny thing is, this is the kind of game that the Birds will win, when nobody’s giving them a shot. A Week 7 home game against the Bears of no real significance except for the attendance of one particular fan? Come from ahead to lose by allowing a 97-yard drive in 1:43 with no timeouts. 6-1 Dallas comes to town as the odds-on favorite in the NFC?
Watch what happens.
Sunday, November 4, 2007
The Match-up: Arizona (+3.5) @ Tampa Bay
The Skinny: Jeff Garcia and the Bucs turned the ball over uncharacteristically last week in losing to Jacksonville. If they can cut out the miscues, they should be able to handle the Cardinals.
Straight Up: Tampa Bay
Against the Spread: Tampa Bay
The Match-up: Denver (+3.0) @ Detroit
The Skinny: We’ve gone down this road with Denver already. They’re simply not that good. Detroit, on the other hand, is halfway to the ten wins predicted by Jon Kitna in the pre-season. The Lions still have two games against Green Bay, plus dates with Dallas, the Giants. Not sure they’re getting to ten, but they’re still better than the Broncos.
Straight Up: Detroit
Against the Spread: Detroit
The Match-up: Carolina (+4.0) @ Tennessee
The Skinny: The Panthers are winless in three tries at home this season, yet they’re a perfect 4-0 on the road. So much for home field advantage.
Straight Up: Carolina
Against the Spread: Carolina
The Match-up: Green Bay (+2.0) @ Kansas City
The Skinny: The Packers may have solved their running game issues with former Notre Dame great Ryan Grant. I know Arrowhead is a tough place to play, but if you’re going to give me points with a 6-1 team, I’ll take them nine times out of ten.
Straight Up: Green Bay
Against the Spread: Green Bay
The Match-up: San Diego (-7.0) @ Minnesota
The Skinny: The upside-down world of the NFL is starting to right itself, as the Chargers are back beating teams with LaDanian Tomlinson dominating and Philip Rivers throwing the ball sparingly. As long as he keeps throwing it to Antonio Gates, I’m alright with it.
Straight Up: San Diego
Against the Spread: San Diego
The Match-up: Jacksonville (+3.0) @ New Orleans
The Skinny: Speaking of righting the ship, the Saints are 3-0 since I implored their fans to break out the brown paper bags and bring back the "Ain’ts." You’re welcome.
Straight Up: New Orleans
Against the Spread: New Orleans
The Match-up: San Francisco (+3.5) @ Atlanta
The Skinny: Memo to Bobby Petrino – Embrace the youth movement and hand the ball to Jerious Norwood 25 times a game. Please?
Straight Up: Atlanta
Against the Spread: Atlanta
The Match-up: Washington (-3.5) @ New York Jets
The Skinny: ESPN Radio’s Freddie Coleman broke out this gem last week: "JETS" now stands for "Just End The Season." Kellen Clemens finally gets the starting nod for gang green.
Straight Up: Washington
Against the Spread: Washington
The Match-up: Cincinnati (+1.0) @ Buffalo
The Skinny: Yes, I’m taking J.P. Losman over Carson Palmer. The Bengals train careened off the track, and the players seem so uninspired it’s almost frightening.
Straight Up: Buffalo
Against the Spread: Buffalo
The Match-up: Seattle (+1.5) @ Cleveland
The Skinny: I think I saw a picture of Shaun Alexander on the side of a milk carton the other day. Where has he disappeared to? Cleveland’s run defense should have Alexander coming out of hiding.
Straight Up: Seattle
Against the Spread: Seattle
The Match-up: New England (-5.0) @ Indianapolis
The Skinny: I think there’s been enough said about this game already.
Straight Up: New England
Against the Spread: New England
The Match-up: Houston (+3.0) @ Oakland
The Skinny: You mean Josh McCown vs. Sage Rosenfels doesn’t earn top billing on CBS this weekend?
Straight Up: Houston
Against the Spread: Houston
The Match-up: Dallas (-3.5) @ Philadelphia
The Skinny: The bottom line is the Eagles need this one. They need it for their playoff chances. They need it for their embattled head coach. They need it for their fans.
Straight Up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia
Monday, November 5, 2007
The Match-up: Baltimore (+9.0) @ Pittsburgh
The Skinny: The Steelers are at home and will be breaking out the throwback jerseys which will get the crowd all riled up. But this line seems a little high to me.
Straight Up: Pittsburgh
Against the Spread: Baltimore
Bye: Chicago, Miami, New York Giants, St. Louis
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Week 8: 9-4 straight up; 9-4 against the spread
Season: 69-47; 51-57-8
Friday, October 26, 2007
The Week 8 Picks
Last weekend was interesting.
Let’s start with the fact that I attended the Eagles-Bears game in Philly courtesy of my buddy Long Legs, who hooked us up with some sweet seats. We had such a good view that I could see first-hand just how mediocre the Eagles receivers really are. Reggie Brown and Kevin Curtis both dropped balls, Brown’s a sure touchdown that could have rendered Chicago’s 97-yard game-winning drive irrelevant. As it is, the Birds are 2-4, head to Minnesota this weekend, then host Dallas the following Sunday.
In case you couldn’t already tell, the sky is falling in Philadelphia.
During the post-mortem that was the Monday flight home, I read an interesting stat in the Philadelphia Daily News regarding the Eagles’ sudden red zone ineptitude. Excluding the demolition of the Lions in Week 3, the offense has entered the red zone 15 times and come away with exactly two touchdowns. And field goals do not typically pave the way to victory.
So what can the Eagles do to salvage their season? For one thing, the solution isn’t to bench Donovan McNabb in favor of Kevin Kolb, as one genius in the section over from me suggested. (And, no, it wasn’t Pennsylvania Governor Ed Rendell).
The fix for the Eagles is actually quite simple: Be better.
Andy Reid and Marty Mornhinweg need to be better at red-zone play-calling, which includes keeping Brian Westbrook heavily involved via the run. Donovan McNabb needs to be better at putting the football in places where his guys can catch it. And, perhaps most importantly, the receivers have to actually hold on to the ball. The defense could also be better at pressuring the quarterback, especially in a prevent situation. The special teams could certainly be better at establishing field position.
I may be in the minority, but I think the Eagles can still turn this thing around. And even if this season goes by the boards, their proverbial window of opportunity can be extended. How, you ask?
Trade for Ocho Cinco.
I know, I know, we’ve been down the road of the Prima Donna wide receiver before, and it didn’t end well. But it sure started well. See, there’s one huge difference between OC and TO. OC may be loud and brash and egotistical. OC has never been divisive, despite his end-zone and sideline antics.
There are a lot of factors that would have to fall into place. The rumor is that the Bengals will try to trade OC, but it’s purely conjecture at this point. Assuming they do try and trade him, they’ll probably demand a king’s ransom. Is he worth a mid-to-late first round pick? Eagles owner Jeffery Lurie would also have to buy in to the whole thing, and he was burned badly by TO. What I’m saying is, there’s an 85% chance it won’t happen.
But imagine if it did…
For the record, last week also represented my best gambling week of the season. Not sure what’s worse – the fact that 8-6 is my high water mark for the year, or the fact that it took me seven weeks to get there. Come to think of it, let’s just move on.
Sunday, October 28, 2007
The Match-up: Detroit (+5.0) @ Chicago
The Skinny: So will Brian Griese play like Peyton Manning as he did in orchestrating the two-minute offense to perfection in the comeback win at Philly? Or will he regress and play like, well, like Brian Griese?
Straight Up: Chicago
Against the Spread: Chicago
The Match-up: Pittsburgh (-3.5) @ Cincinnati
The Skinny: No way Omar Epps lets the Steelers lapse in consecutive weeks. Losing in Denver is unconscionable. Losing in Cincinnati would be unforgivable.
Straight Up: Pittsburgh
Against the Spread: Pittsburgh
The Match-up: Indianapolis (-6.5) @ Carolina
The Skinny: This would be a potential trap game for the Colts if they weren’t facing a team quarterbacked by 71-year old Vinny Testaverde.
Straight Up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Indianapolis
The Match-up: Oakland (+7.5) @ Tennessee
The Skinny: Admit it – you saw Tennessee put up 38 points last week and thought for sure Vince Young went off. No, that would have been Rod Bironas setting an NFL record by booting eight field goals last week.
Straight Up: Tennessee
Against the Spread: Oakland
The Match-up: Cleveland (-3.0) @ St. Louis
The Skinny: Steven Jackson is back and imploring fans to start him on their fantasy teams this week. Seeing as I traded for Jackson a couple of weeks ago, I’ll oblige.
Straight Up: St. Louis
Against the Spread: St. Louis
The Match-up: New York Giants (-9.5) @ Scottish Claymores (er, the Miami Dolphins)
The Skinny: Actually the Claymores, nee of the NFL Europe league, might give the Giants a better game. Why is the NFL trying to promote its game via the Miami Dolphins? Are they that internationally recognizable?
Straight Up: New York Giants
Against the Spread: New York Giants
The Match-up: Philadelphia (-1.0) @ Minnesota
The Skinny: If you’re Brad Childress, why aren’t you giving the ball to Adrian Peterson 25 times a game? AD only carried it 12 times last week in Dallas. He should be a workhorse…starting next week.
Straight Up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia
The Match-up: Buffalo (+3.0) @ New York Jets
The Skinny: Somehow, someway, the 1-6 Jets are favored over the juggernaut 2-4 Bills. That tells me a lot about Buffalo’s chances.
Straight Up: New York Jets
Against the Spread: New York Jets
The Match-up: Houston (NL) @ San Diego
The Skinny: The league has yet to determine if, when, or where this game will be played. I’m sure those details are the least concerns of the people of San Diego.
Straight Up: San Diego
Against the Spread: San Diego
The Match-up: Jacksonville (+4.0) @ Tampa Bay
The Skinny: The Jaguars are down to essentially their third string quarterback, a guy named Quinn Gray who wears a heavily-tinted visor a la LaDanian Tomlinson. The NFL is so upside down this year that this is the kind of game Jacksonville will win.
Straight Up: Tampa Bay
Against the Spread: Jacksonville
The Match-up: New Orleans (-3.0) @ San Francisco
The Skinny: The 49ers welcome back quarterback Alex Smith, who will likely hand the ball to Frank Gore early and often. The Saints appear to have been revived and believe it or not can still challenge for the NFC South title.
Straight Up: New Orleans
Against the Spread: New Orleans
The Match-up: Washington (+16.5) @ New England
The Skinny: Like the Colts, the Patriots face what could be viewed as a trap game. But this Pats team is playing with such an attitude; they’ll probably beat up on the Redskins as if they’ve seen them on video.
Straight Up: New England
Against the Spread: New England
Monday, October 29, 2007
The Match-up: Green Bay (+3.0) @ Denver
The Skinny: If the Red Sox sweep Colorado (which looks entirely possible at this point), there won’t be a conflict between the Broncos game and Game 5 of the World Series. Want to have some fun? Find a Sox fan and tell them that their team has morphed into the Yankees. They love that.
Straight Up: Green Bay
Against the Spread: Green Bay
Bye: Arizona, Atlanta, Baltimore, Dallas, Kansas City, Seattle
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Week 7: 9-5 straight up; 8-6 against the spread
Season: 60-43; 42-53-8
Let’s start with the fact that I attended the Eagles-Bears game in Philly courtesy of my buddy Long Legs, who hooked us up with some sweet seats. We had such a good view that I could see first-hand just how mediocre the Eagles receivers really are. Reggie Brown and Kevin Curtis both dropped balls, Brown’s a sure touchdown that could have rendered Chicago’s 97-yard game-winning drive irrelevant. As it is, the Birds are 2-4, head to Minnesota this weekend, then host Dallas the following Sunday.
In case you couldn’t already tell, the sky is falling in Philadelphia.
During the post-mortem that was the Monday flight home, I read an interesting stat in the Philadelphia Daily News regarding the Eagles’ sudden red zone ineptitude. Excluding the demolition of the Lions in Week 3, the offense has entered the red zone 15 times and come away with exactly two touchdowns. And field goals do not typically pave the way to victory.
So what can the Eagles do to salvage their season? For one thing, the solution isn’t to bench Donovan McNabb in favor of Kevin Kolb, as one genius in the section over from me suggested. (And, no, it wasn’t Pennsylvania Governor Ed Rendell).
The fix for the Eagles is actually quite simple: Be better.
Andy Reid and Marty Mornhinweg need to be better at red-zone play-calling, which includes keeping Brian Westbrook heavily involved via the run. Donovan McNabb needs to be better at putting the football in places where his guys can catch it. And, perhaps most importantly, the receivers have to actually hold on to the ball. The defense could also be better at pressuring the quarterback, especially in a prevent situation. The special teams could certainly be better at establishing field position.
I may be in the minority, but I think the Eagles can still turn this thing around. And even if this season goes by the boards, their proverbial window of opportunity can be extended. How, you ask?
Trade for Ocho Cinco.
I know, I know, we’ve been down the road of the Prima Donna wide receiver before, and it didn’t end well. But it sure started well. See, there’s one huge difference between OC and TO. OC may be loud and brash and egotistical. OC has never been divisive, despite his end-zone and sideline antics.
There are a lot of factors that would have to fall into place. The rumor is that the Bengals will try to trade OC, but it’s purely conjecture at this point. Assuming they do try and trade him, they’ll probably demand a king’s ransom. Is he worth a mid-to-late first round pick? Eagles owner Jeffery Lurie would also have to buy in to the whole thing, and he was burned badly by TO. What I’m saying is, there’s an 85% chance it won’t happen.
But imagine if it did…
For the record, last week also represented my best gambling week of the season. Not sure what’s worse – the fact that 8-6 is my high water mark for the year, or the fact that it took me seven weeks to get there. Come to think of it, let’s just move on.
Sunday, October 28, 2007
The Match-up: Detroit (+5.0) @ Chicago
The Skinny: So will Brian Griese play like Peyton Manning as he did in orchestrating the two-minute offense to perfection in the comeback win at Philly? Or will he regress and play like, well, like Brian Griese?
Straight Up: Chicago
Against the Spread: Chicago
The Match-up: Pittsburgh (-3.5) @ Cincinnati
The Skinny: No way Omar Epps lets the Steelers lapse in consecutive weeks. Losing in Denver is unconscionable. Losing in Cincinnati would be unforgivable.
Straight Up: Pittsburgh
Against the Spread: Pittsburgh
The Match-up: Indianapolis (-6.5) @ Carolina
The Skinny: This would be a potential trap game for the Colts if they weren’t facing a team quarterbacked by 71-year old Vinny Testaverde.
Straight Up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Indianapolis
The Match-up: Oakland (+7.5) @ Tennessee
The Skinny: Admit it – you saw Tennessee put up 38 points last week and thought for sure Vince Young went off. No, that would have been Rod Bironas setting an NFL record by booting eight field goals last week.
Straight Up: Tennessee
Against the Spread: Oakland
The Match-up: Cleveland (-3.0) @ St. Louis
The Skinny: Steven Jackson is back and imploring fans to start him on their fantasy teams this week. Seeing as I traded for Jackson a couple of weeks ago, I’ll oblige.
Straight Up: St. Louis
Against the Spread: St. Louis
The Match-up: New York Giants (-9.5) @ Scottish Claymores (er, the Miami Dolphins)
The Skinny: Actually the Claymores, nee of the NFL Europe league, might give the Giants a better game. Why is the NFL trying to promote its game via the Miami Dolphins? Are they that internationally recognizable?
Straight Up: New York Giants
Against the Spread: New York Giants
The Match-up: Philadelphia (-1.0) @ Minnesota
The Skinny: If you’re Brad Childress, why aren’t you giving the ball to Adrian Peterson 25 times a game? AD only carried it 12 times last week in Dallas. He should be a workhorse…starting next week.
Straight Up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia
The Match-up: Buffalo (+3.0) @ New York Jets
The Skinny: Somehow, someway, the 1-6 Jets are favored over the juggernaut 2-4 Bills. That tells me a lot about Buffalo’s chances.
Straight Up: New York Jets
Against the Spread: New York Jets
The Match-up: Houston (NL) @ San Diego
The Skinny: The league has yet to determine if, when, or where this game will be played. I’m sure those details are the least concerns of the people of San Diego.
Straight Up: San Diego
Against the Spread: San Diego
The Match-up: Jacksonville (+4.0) @ Tampa Bay
The Skinny: The Jaguars are down to essentially their third string quarterback, a guy named Quinn Gray who wears a heavily-tinted visor a la LaDanian Tomlinson. The NFL is so upside down this year that this is the kind of game Jacksonville will win.
Straight Up: Tampa Bay
Against the Spread: Jacksonville
The Match-up: New Orleans (-3.0) @ San Francisco
The Skinny: The 49ers welcome back quarterback Alex Smith, who will likely hand the ball to Frank Gore early and often. The Saints appear to have been revived and believe it or not can still challenge for the NFC South title.
Straight Up: New Orleans
Against the Spread: New Orleans
The Match-up: Washington (+16.5) @ New England
The Skinny: Like the Colts, the Patriots face what could be viewed as a trap game. But this Pats team is playing with such an attitude; they’ll probably beat up on the Redskins as if they’ve seen them on video.
Straight Up: New England
Against the Spread: New England
Monday, October 29, 2007
The Match-up: Green Bay (+3.0) @ Denver
The Skinny: If the Red Sox sweep Colorado (which looks entirely possible at this point), there won’t be a conflict between the Broncos game and Game 5 of the World Series. Want to have some fun? Find a Sox fan and tell them that their team has morphed into the Yankees. They love that.
Straight Up: Green Bay
Against the Spread: Green Bay
Bye: Arizona, Atlanta, Baltimore, Dallas, Kansas City, Seattle
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Week 7: 9-5 straight up; 8-6 against the spread
Season: 60-43; 42-53-8
Saturday, October 20, 2007
The Week 7 Picks
Sunday, October 21, 2007
The Match-up: Tennessee (-1.5) @ Houston
The Skinny: The overwhelming story line remains the fact that Houston passed on native son Vince Young and he burned them twice last season. I know he’s dinged up, but you just know VY will play and likely be the difference maker – again.
Straight Up: Tennessee
Against the Spread: Tennessee
The Match-up: Tampa Bay (+2.0) @ Detroit
The Skinny: The Bucs have been one of the more pleasant surprises this season, yet they’re a dog on the road in Detroit. Tampa QB Jeff Garcia had a cup of coffee with the Lions a few years back and didn’t exactly light it up.
Straight Up: Detroit
Against the Spread: Detroit
The Match-up: New England (-16.5) @ Miami
The Skinny: Every week the Patriots are a double-digit favorite and every week I take the underdog and the points. A few problems with that strategy: 1) The Dolphins suck; 2) The Patriots are playing with a severe chip on their shoulder; 3) There’s no way New England is looking ahead to their potential AFC Championship game with the Colts next week.
Straight Up: New England
Against the Spread: New England
The Match-up: Atlanta (+9.0) @ New Orleans
The Skinny: Fresh off their Monday night loss to the Giants, the Falcons will elevate QB Byron Leftwich to the top of the depth chart. Whether or not he can elevate the Falcons remains to be seen.
Straight Up: New Orleans
Against the Spread: Atlanta
The Match-up: San Francisco (+9.0) @ New York Giants
The Skinny: Memo to 49ers cornerbacks – you may want to actually cover Plaxico Burress. He’ll be the guy behind you on his way to the end zone.
Straight Up: New York Giants
Against the Spread: New York Giants
The Match-up: Baltimore (-3.0) @ Buffalo
The Skinny: When last we saw the Bills, they were scaring the crap out of the Cowboys two Mondays ago. The problem is, that was their Super Bowl. No way they get up like that this week, especially against former Bill Willis McGahee who will likely run a little harder on Sunday.
Straight Up: Baltimore
Against the Spread: Baltimore
The Match-up: Arizona (+8.5) @ Washington
The Skinny: Kurt Warner will likely play (at least part-time) despite torn ligaments in his non-throwing elbow. The Cards will also have WR Anquan Boldin back from a hip injury.
Straight Up: Washington
Against the Spread: Arizona
The Match-up: Kansas City (+2.5) @ Oakland
The Skinny: The Chiefs were comfortable enough with the progress of Priest Holmes that they traded back-up RB Michael Bennett to Tampa. If they have to use Holmes, it’s probably bad news for Kansas City.
Straight Up: Oakland
Against the Spread: Oakland
The Match-up: New York Jets (+6.5) @ Cincinnati
The Skinny: Has there been a more disappointing team then the Bengals this season? Their defense is so bad that I even think the Jets can put up some points. Maybe not enough to win, but they’ll hang around.
Straight Up: Cincinnati
Against the Spread: New York Jets
The Match-up: Chicago (+5.5) @ Philadelphia
The Skinny: Last time I attended an Eagles game (December 2004), Donovan McNabb threw for over 300 yards and 5 TD’s…in the first half. Brian Westbrook scored three times and the Birds crushed the Packers. Guess where I’ll be on Sunday?
Straight Up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia
The Match-up: St. Louis (+8.5) @ Seattle
The Skinny: I think the Seahawks learned a lesson about taking a winless team lightly once the Saints marched in and did them in their own backyard. I don’t think Mike Holmgren will let that happen again.
Straight Up: Seattle
Against the Spread: Seattle
The Match-up: Minnesota (+9.5) @ Dallas
The Skinny: I believe some guy gave you Adrian Peterson as the rookie of the year for 2007. How’s he doing so far? He’s only leading the league in rushing and just hung 224 yards on the Bears last week. Hope TOFU has his popcorn ready for the "AD" show. "AD," by the way, stands for "All Day."
Straight Up: Minnesota
Against the Spread: Minnesota
The Match-up: Pittsburgh (-3.5) @ Denver
The Skinny: Flying under the radar thanks to all the attention being paid to New England and Indianapolis, the Steelers are having a great season and are looking at another win this week in Denver, who will be without WR Javon Walker indefinitely with a knee injury.
Straight Up: Pittsburgh
Against the Spread: Pittsburgh
Monday, October 22, 2007
The Match-up: Indianapolis (-3.0) @ Jacksonville
The Skinny: This is easily the most entertaining game of the weekend (except for the Eagles game, of course). The Jaguars always give the Colts fits, and now the Maurice Jones-Drew has awoken from his early-season slumber, I’d expect another tight one.
Straight Up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Indianapolis
Bye: Carolina, Cleveland, Green Bay, San Diego
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Week 5: 7-6 straight up; 4-7-2 against the spread
Season: 51-38; 34-47-8 (this is why I don’t gamble)
The Match-up: Tennessee (-1.5) @ Houston
The Skinny: The overwhelming story line remains the fact that Houston passed on native son Vince Young and he burned them twice last season. I know he’s dinged up, but you just know VY will play and likely be the difference maker – again.
Straight Up: Tennessee
Against the Spread: Tennessee
The Match-up: Tampa Bay (+2.0) @ Detroit
The Skinny: The Bucs have been one of the more pleasant surprises this season, yet they’re a dog on the road in Detroit. Tampa QB Jeff Garcia had a cup of coffee with the Lions a few years back and didn’t exactly light it up.
Straight Up: Detroit
Against the Spread: Detroit
The Match-up: New England (-16.5) @ Miami
The Skinny: Every week the Patriots are a double-digit favorite and every week I take the underdog and the points. A few problems with that strategy: 1) The Dolphins suck; 2) The Patriots are playing with a severe chip on their shoulder; 3) There’s no way New England is looking ahead to their potential AFC Championship game with the Colts next week.
Straight Up: New England
Against the Spread: New England
The Match-up: Atlanta (+9.0) @ New Orleans
The Skinny: Fresh off their Monday night loss to the Giants, the Falcons will elevate QB Byron Leftwich to the top of the depth chart. Whether or not he can elevate the Falcons remains to be seen.
Straight Up: New Orleans
Against the Spread: Atlanta
The Match-up: San Francisco (+9.0) @ New York Giants
The Skinny: Memo to 49ers cornerbacks – you may want to actually cover Plaxico Burress. He’ll be the guy behind you on his way to the end zone.
Straight Up: New York Giants
Against the Spread: New York Giants
The Match-up: Baltimore (-3.0) @ Buffalo
The Skinny: When last we saw the Bills, they were scaring the crap out of the Cowboys two Mondays ago. The problem is, that was their Super Bowl. No way they get up like that this week, especially against former Bill Willis McGahee who will likely run a little harder on Sunday.
Straight Up: Baltimore
Against the Spread: Baltimore
The Match-up: Arizona (+8.5) @ Washington
The Skinny: Kurt Warner will likely play (at least part-time) despite torn ligaments in his non-throwing elbow. The Cards will also have WR Anquan Boldin back from a hip injury.
Straight Up: Washington
Against the Spread: Arizona
The Match-up: Kansas City (+2.5) @ Oakland
The Skinny: The Chiefs were comfortable enough with the progress of Priest Holmes that they traded back-up RB Michael Bennett to Tampa. If they have to use Holmes, it’s probably bad news for Kansas City.
Straight Up: Oakland
Against the Spread: Oakland
The Match-up: New York Jets (+6.5) @ Cincinnati
The Skinny: Has there been a more disappointing team then the Bengals this season? Their defense is so bad that I even think the Jets can put up some points. Maybe not enough to win, but they’ll hang around.
Straight Up: Cincinnati
Against the Spread: New York Jets
The Match-up: Chicago (+5.5) @ Philadelphia
The Skinny: Last time I attended an Eagles game (December 2004), Donovan McNabb threw for over 300 yards and 5 TD’s…in the first half. Brian Westbrook scored three times and the Birds crushed the Packers. Guess where I’ll be on Sunday?
Straight Up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia
The Match-up: St. Louis (+8.5) @ Seattle
The Skinny: I think the Seahawks learned a lesson about taking a winless team lightly once the Saints marched in and did them in their own backyard. I don’t think Mike Holmgren will let that happen again.
Straight Up: Seattle
Against the Spread: Seattle
The Match-up: Minnesota (+9.5) @ Dallas
The Skinny: I believe some guy gave you Adrian Peterson as the rookie of the year for 2007. How’s he doing so far? He’s only leading the league in rushing and just hung 224 yards on the Bears last week. Hope TOFU has his popcorn ready for the "AD" show. "AD," by the way, stands for "All Day."
Straight Up: Minnesota
Against the Spread: Minnesota
The Match-up: Pittsburgh (-3.5) @ Denver
The Skinny: Flying under the radar thanks to all the attention being paid to New England and Indianapolis, the Steelers are having a great season and are looking at another win this week in Denver, who will be without WR Javon Walker indefinitely with a knee injury.
Straight Up: Pittsburgh
Against the Spread: Pittsburgh
Monday, October 22, 2007
The Match-up: Indianapolis (-3.0) @ Jacksonville
The Skinny: This is easily the most entertaining game of the weekend (except for the Eagles game, of course). The Jaguars always give the Colts fits, and now the Maurice Jones-Drew has awoken from his early-season slumber, I’d expect another tight one.
Straight Up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Indianapolis
Bye: Carolina, Cleveland, Green Bay, San Diego
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Week 5: 7-6 straight up; 4-7-2 against the spread
Season: 51-38; 34-47-8 (this is why I don’t gamble)
Friday, October 12, 2007
The Week 6 Picks
Sunday, October 14, 2007
The Match-up: Tennessee (+3.0) @ Tampa Bay
The Skinny: Bucs coach Jon Gruden is looking for a running back, even mentioning CB Ronde Barber’s twin brother by name. No such issues for Tennessee, whose QB is a better running back than anyone on Tampa’s active roster.
Straight Up: Tennessee
Against the Spread: Tennessee
The Match-up: Minnesota (+5.0) @ Chicago
The Skinny: The Bears absolutely had to have last week’s win over Green Bay to stay within shouting distance in the NFC North. Lucky for them, the Packers obliged.
Straight Up: Chicago
Against the Spread: Chicago
The Match-up: Houston (+6.5) @ Jacksonville
The Skinny: Don’t look now, but the Jaguars are 3-1, playing good defense, and their running game is starting to round into form. It’s a shame they don’t play in the NFC or they may have clinched a playoff berth by now.
Straight Up: Jacksonville
Against the Spread: Houston
The Match-up: Miami (+4.5) @ Cleveland
The Skinny: Enough with the Joey Porter vs. Kellen Winslow trash talk. Can we just let the two of them beat each other into submission so we don’t have to watch them play this week?
Straight Up: Cleveland
Against the Spread: Cleveland
The Match-up: St. Louis (+9.5) @ Baltimore
The Skinny: The Ravens squeaked by a San Francisco team quarterbacked by Trent Dilfer. This week they get a Rams team with Gus Frerotte under center. Seems we’ve been down this road before…
Straight Up: Baltimore
Against the Spread: St. Louis
The Match-up: Washington (+3.0) @ Green Bay
The Skinny: Here’s the story of the Packers running game. It stinks. The end. Not being able to run the ball against a very good Redskins defense means Green Bay will follow its 8-game winning streak with a two-game slide.
Straight Up: Washington
Against the Spread: Washington
The Match-up: Cincinnati (-3.0) @ Kansas City
The Skinny: How bad is the AFC West? The Chiefs are 2-3 and have scored 63 points this season. That’s good enough for second place in the division, a half game behind the surging Oakland Raiders. I only wish I was kidding.
Straight Up: Cincinnati
Against the Spread: Cincinnati
The Match-up: Philadelphia (-3.0) @ New York Jets
The Skinny: I know it seems like the sky is falling in Philly. But starting this week, the Eagles go to New York to take on the 1-4 Jets, then host the 2-3 Bears (with this guy in attendance), then get the Vikings in Minnesota. Loosely translated – the Birds sould be 4-3 heading into their Monday nighter with Dallas, a.k.a. the worst 5-0 team in history.
Straight Up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia
The Match-up: Carolina (+4.0) @ Arizona
The Skinny: Good back up QB situation? Arizona’s Matt Leinart goes down for the season with a broken collarbone and is replaced by a two-time NFL MVP and Super Bowl champion. Bad back up QB situation? Carolina’s Jake Del-overrated is done for the year with an elbow injury, meaning the Panthers will start either David Carr and his ailing back or 62-year old Vinny Testaverde, who was signed this week.
Straight Up: Arizona
Against the Spread: Arizona
The Match-up: Oakland (+9.5) @ San Diego
The Skinny: Sorry, but a 41-3 beat down of the Broncos does not mean the Chargers are back. Denver isn’t even as good as their 2-3 record. San Diego may win again and start to put a streak together, but the Raiders will make them earn it.
Straight Up: San Diego
Against the Spread: Oakland
The Match-up: New England (-5.5) @ Dallas
The Skinny: Dallas may be unbeaten, but they’re highly overrated. They beat the Giants despite surrendering 35 points, then struggled with winless Miami (trailing in the second half), beat the Bears (not that good), knocked off the winless Rams, then needed smoke and mirrors to overtake the 1-4 Buffalo Bills. Dallas’ opponents are a combined 6-19. New England is going to beat them by at least 20.
Straight Up: New England
Against the Spread: New England
The Match-up: New Orleans (+6.5) @ Seattle
The Skinny: Break out the paper bags, Saints fans, "The Ain’ts" are back!
Straight Up: Seattle
Against the Spread: Seattle
Monday, October 15, 2007
The Match-up: New York Giants (-3.5) @ Atlanta
The Skinny: Not sure if it matters whether or not the Falcons start Joey Harrington or Byron Leftwich at quarterback. Either way, they could learn a lesson from the Eagles and try to block Osi Umenyiora.
Straight Up: New York Giants
Against the Spread: New York Giants
Bye: Buffalo, Denver, Detroit, Indianapolis, Pittsburgh, San Francisco
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Week 5: 9-5 straight up; 7-7 against the spread
Season: 44-32; 30-40-6
The Match-up: Tennessee (+3.0) @ Tampa Bay
The Skinny: Bucs coach Jon Gruden is looking for a running back, even mentioning CB Ronde Barber’s twin brother by name. No such issues for Tennessee, whose QB is a better running back than anyone on Tampa’s active roster.
Straight Up: Tennessee
Against the Spread: Tennessee
The Match-up: Minnesota (+5.0) @ Chicago
The Skinny: The Bears absolutely had to have last week’s win over Green Bay to stay within shouting distance in the NFC North. Lucky for them, the Packers obliged.
Straight Up: Chicago
Against the Spread: Chicago
The Match-up: Houston (+6.5) @ Jacksonville
The Skinny: Don’t look now, but the Jaguars are 3-1, playing good defense, and their running game is starting to round into form. It’s a shame they don’t play in the NFC or they may have clinched a playoff berth by now.
Straight Up: Jacksonville
Against the Spread: Houston
The Match-up: Miami (+4.5) @ Cleveland
The Skinny: Enough with the Joey Porter vs. Kellen Winslow trash talk. Can we just let the two of them beat each other into submission so we don’t have to watch them play this week?
Straight Up: Cleveland
Against the Spread: Cleveland
The Match-up: St. Louis (+9.5) @ Baltimore
The Skinny: The Ravens squeaked by a San Francisco team quarterbacked by Trent Dilfer. This week they get a Rams team with Gus Frerotte under center. Seems we’ve been down this road before…
Straight Up: Baltimore
Against the Spread: St. Louis
The Match-up: Washington (+3.0) @ Green Bay
The Skinny: Here’s the story of the Packers running game. It stinks. The end. Not being able to run the ball against a very good Redskins defense means Green Bay will follow its 8-game winning streak with a two-game slide.
Straight Up: Washington
Against the Spread: Washington
The Match-up: Cincinnati (-3.0) @ Kansas City
The Skinny: How bad is the AFC West? The Chiefs are 2-3 and have scored 63 points this season. That’s good enough for second place in the division, a half game behind the surging Oakland Raiders. I only wish I was kidding.
Straight Up: Cincinnati
Against the Spread: Cincinnati
The Match-up: Philadelphia (-3.0) @ New York Jets
The Skinny: I know it seems like the sky is falling in Philly. But starting this week, the Eagles go to New York to take on the 1-4 Jets, then host the 2-3 Bears (with this guy in attendance), then get the Vikings in Minnesota. Loosely translated – the Birds sould be 4-3 heading into their Monday nighter with Dallas, a.k.a. the worst 5-0 team in history.
Straight Up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia
The Match-up: Carolina (+4.0) @ Arizona
The Skinny: Good back up QB situation? Arizona’s Matt Leinart goes down for the season with a broken collarbone and is replaced by a two-time NFL MVP and Super Bowl champion. Bad back up QB situation? Carolina’s Jake Del-overrated is done for the year with an elbow injury, meaning the Panthers will start either David Carr and his ailing back or 62-year old Vinny Testaverde, who was signed this week.
Straight Up: Arizona
Against the Spread: Arizona
The Match-up: Oakland (+9.5) @ San Diego
The Skinny: Sorry, but a 41-3 beat down of the Broncos does not mean the Chargers are back. Denver isn’t even as good as their 2-3 record. San Diego may win again and start to put a streak together, but the Raiders will make them earn it.
Straight Up: San Diego
Against the Spread: Oakland
The Match-up: New England (-5.5) @ Dallas
The Skinny: Dallas may be unbeaten, but they’re highly overrated. They beat the Giants despite surrendering 35 points, then struggled with winless Miami (trailing in the second half), beat the Bears (not that good), knocked off the winless Rams, then needed smoke and mirrors to overtake the 1-4 Buffalo Bills. Dallas’ opponents are a combined 6-19. New England is going to beat them by at least 20.
Straight Up: New England
Against the Spread: New England
The Match-up: New Orleans (+6.5) @ Seattle
The Skinny: Break out the paper bags, Saints fans, "The Ain’ts" are back!
Straight Up: Seattle
Against the Spread: Seattle
Monday, October 15, 2007
The Match-up: New York Giants (-3.5) @ Atlanta
The Skinny: Not sure if it matters whether or not the Falcons start Joey Harrington or Byron Leftwich at quarterback. Either way, they could learn a lesson from the Eagles and try to block Osi Umenyiora.
Straight Up: New York Giants
Against the Spread: New York Giants
Bye: Buffalo, Denver, Detroit, Indianapolis, Pittsburgh, San Francisco
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Week 5: 9-5 straight up; 7-7 against the spread
Season: 44-32; 30-40-6
Friday, October 05, 2007
The Week 5 Picks
"The Eagles need to pull out the yellow and blue jerseys again." – Christopher Benson, on the heels of the Eagles’ embarrassing 16-3 loss to the Giants in Week 4.
What’s worse, the fact that the Eagles have scored twice as many points in their one win where they busted out the Team Sweden throwbacks than they have in their three losses combined, or the fact that Andy Reid still seems oblivious to the notion that you can win football games without chucking it 45 times a game?
I’m fearful that the Eagles system that has been so successful over the last nine years is starting to break down. Donovan McNabb could get away with mediocre receivers in the past because he was elusive, explosive, and a threat to run. Now that he’s had three major lower-body injuries in the last five years, he’s not as mobile as he used to be. The receivers they have can’t get any kind of separation from the defender, meaning opposing corners can play press man-to-man coverage and blitz the hell out of McNabb, who has basically two seconds to throw the ball before he gets sacked.
Here are three simple things they could do to help Donovan McNabb:
1. Bring in an elite wide receiver or two that can stretch the field – I know they used to have one who will remain nameless, but he was a piece of crap, so he had to go. Someone of his caliber who can get off a jam at the line of scrimmage and get downfield would be a tremendous asset.
2. Play a second tight end in lieu of a fullback – Against a two tight end set, opposing defenses probably wouldn’t play nickel, meaning they could sneak Brian Westbrook out of the backfield against a safety or linebacker, which is a favorable match-up no matter who’s trying to defend him.
3. Run the football more – Westbrook can do it, Correll Buckhalter can do it, I’d bet even Tony Hunt could do it if given the chance. But the bottom line is they need to be more balanced on offense. I thought Reid would have learned this lesson last November, but evidently not.
Look, it’s still waaaaaaaaaaaaaaay to early to press the panic button. The fact is, other than Dallas and Green Bay, nobody’s running away in the NFC. I know Seattle is 3-1 (and I think they may have already clinched the West) and Tampa Bay is off to a nice start, but they aren’t considered elite teams yet. Chicago and New Orleans are both in the tank, and everybody’s sleepers San Francisco and Arizona have quarterback issues. The Birds have played without pro-bowlers Brian Dawkins, Lito Sheppard, William "Tra" Thomas, tight end L.J. Smith, and their MVP, Westbrook. If the Eagles can get healthy over the bye week and string together a few wins, they’ll be right back in the playoff picture.
It’s also too early to press the panic button on my picks. Last week, nine underdogs not only covered but won outright. So it’s not just me struggling through these games. If Vegas can’t get it right, who can? I am, however, reverting to simply picking by gut feel. Starting right now.
Sunday, October 7, 2007
The Match-up: Atlanta (+8.5) @ Tennessee
The Skinny: OK, Vince Young, I’m sold. Young has carried the Titans to a 2-1 record, including 2-0 on the road and a narrow two-point home loss to the defending champion Colts. I know Joey Harrington has played well in his last two games, but even a broken clock is right twice a day.
Straight Up: Tennessee
Against the Spread: Tennessee
The Match-up: Miami (+5.5) @ Houston
The Skinny: Despite his team’s struggles, Miami’s Ronnie Brown is putting up monster numbers this season, averaging better than five yards a carry. Too bad he can’t play quarterback.
Straight Up: Houston
Against the Spread: Houston
The Match-up: Jacksonville (-2.0) @ Kansas City
The Skinny: Kansas City WR Dwayne Bowe looks like the early front-runner for offensive rookie of the year. Coincidentally, the Chiefs have won two straight after opening 0-2. And, the Chiefs are typically tough to beat at Arrowhead Stadium. So why am I picking Jacksonville? Because despite all the things in Kansas City’s favor, they’re still an underdog. There’s got to be a reason why, right?
Straight Up: Jacksonville
Against the Spread: Jacksonville
The Match-up: Arizona (-3.5) @ St. Louis
The Skinny: If you’re Ken Whisenhunt, how can you not start Kurt Warner in St. Louis this week? As for the Rams, Gus Frerotte handing off to Brian Leonard…is this Week 5 or the pre-season?
Straight Up: Arizona
Against the Spread: Arizona
The Match-up: Cleveland (+16.5) @ New England
The Skinny: Looking for a chink in the Patriots’ armor? How about this – after scoring 38 point in each of their first three games this season, they only managed 34 against Cincinnati on Monday. They’re slipping.
Straight Up: New England
Against the Spread: Cleveland
The Match-up: Carolina (+3.0) @ New Orleans
The Skinny: So much for that vaunted Saints offense. New Orleans has only managed to score 38 points this season. Hell, that’s one week’s total for the Patriots. Or a half for the Eagles. If the Saints don’t get it going this week (without Deuce McAllister, who is out for the year with a torn ACL), you can go ahead and throw dirt on them.
Straight Up: New Orleans
Against the Spread: New Orleans
The Match-up: New York Jets (+3.5) @ New York Giants
The Skinny: After surrendering 97 points in their first ten quarters of the season, the Giants defense has given up only three in six quarters since. My guess is that they won’t notch 12 sacks against Chad Pennington and the Jets, but the Giants defense could make the difference in The Jersey Bowl.
Straight Up: New York Giants
Against the Spread: New York Giants
The Match-up: Seattle (+5.5) @ Pittsburgh
The Skinny: No revenge for the Seahawks in this Super Bowl rematch. Seattle’s pass defense has been torched this year, and Steelers WR Santonio Holmes is averaging move than 20 yards per catch.
Straight Up: Pittsburgh
Against the Spread: Pittsburgh
The Match-up: Detroit (+3.5) @ Washington
The Skinny: Typically, one-dimensional teams are easier to defend. And despite their high-powered passing offense, the Lions simply cannot run the football. Washington’s secondary is very good, and they’ll have their hands full with Roy Williams. But the Redskins are a good running, ball control team and should be able to keep Jon Kitna and company on the sidelines for large chunks of time.
Straight Up: Washington
Against the Spread: Washington
The Match-up: Tampa Bay (+10.0) @ Indianapolis
The Skinny: The bad news for the Bucs? RB Carnell "Cadillac" Williams was placed on injured reserve with a torn patella tendon. The good news? Michael Pittman and Earnest Graham appear capable of carrying the load. The bad news? The Bucs head to Indianapolis this week. The good news? Anyone?
Straight Up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Indianapolis
The Match-up: San Diego (+1.5) @ Denver
The Skinny: So what’s wrong with the Chargers? Was it all Marty Schottenheimer? Not exactly. Remember, the Chargers lost their offensive and defensive coordinators to head coaching vacancies, then GM A.J. Smith fired Schottenheimer. Young QB Philip Rivers is now in his third offensive system in four seasons (no wonder he’s struggling), and his troubles are magnified by the fact that defenses are ganging up on LT and challenging Rivers to beat them. So far, he hasn’t.
Straight Up: Denver
Against the Spread: Denver
The Match-up: Baltimore (-3.5) @ San Francisco
The Skinny: Subplots abound in this one, with former Super Bowl champion QB Trent Dilfer facing his old Ravens club, the same club with which 49ers head coach Mike Nolan cut his NFL teeth. Baltimore’s defense hasn’t look as menacing as in seasons past, and this could be Frank Gore’s official coming out party for the 2007 season.
Straight Up: San Francisco
Against the Spread: San Francisco
The Match-up: Chicago (+3.0) @ Green Bay
The Skinny: Maybe it wasn’t all "Train Wrecks" Grossman’s fault. The Bears finally made a QB switch last week, and Brian Griese threw three picks in a Chicago loss. QB isn’t the issue with the Bears. The lack of a running game is. Letting Thomas Jones walk in the off-season was a horrible decision that is now coming home to roost.
Straight Up: Green Bay
Against the Spread: Green Bay
Monday, October 8, 2007
The Match-up: Dallas (-10.0) @ Buffalo
The Skinny: Nobody circles the wagons like the Buffalo Bills!
Straight Up: Buffalo
Against the Spread: Buffalo
Bye: Cincinnati, Minnesota, Oakland, Philadelphia
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Week 4: 5-9 straight up; 5-9 against the spread
Season: 35-27; 23-33-6
What’s worse, the fact that the Eagles have scored twice as many points in their one win where they busted out the Team Sweden throwbacks than they have in their three losses combined, or the fact that Andy Reid still seems oblivious to the notion that you can win football games without chucking it 45 times a game?
I’m fearful that the Eagles system that has been so successful over the last nine years is starting to break down. Donovan McNabb could get away with mediocre receivers in the past because he was elusive, explosive, and a threat to run. Now that he’s had three major lower-body injuries in the last five years, he’s not as mobile as he used to be. The receivers they have can’t get any kind of separation from the defender, meaning opposing corners can play press man-to-man coverage and blitz the hell out of McNabb, who has basically two seconds to throw the ball before he gets sacked.
Here are three simple things they could do to help Donovan McNabb:
1. Bring in an elite wide receiver or two that can stretch the field – I know they used to have one who will remain nameless, but he was a piece of crap, so he had to go. Someone of his caliber who can get off a jam at the line of scrimmage and get downfield would be a tremendous asset.
2. Play a second tight end in lieu of a fullback – Against a two tight end set, opposing defenses probably wouldn’t play nickel, meaning they could sneak Brian Westbrook out of the backfield against a safety or linebacker, which is a favorable match-up no matter who’s trying to defend him.
3. Run the football more – Westbrook can do it, Correll Buckhalter can do it, I’d bet even Tony Hunt could do it if given the chance. But the bottom line is they need to be more balanced on offense. I thought Reid would have learned this lesson last November, but evidently not.
Look, it’s still waaaaaaaaaaaaaaay to early to press the panic button. The fact is, other than Dallas and Green Bay, nobody’s running away in the NFC. I know Seattle is 3-1 (and I think they may have already clinched the West) and Tampa Bay is off to a nice start, but they aren’t considered elite teams yet. Chicago and New Orleans are both in the tank, and everybody’s sleepers San Francisco and Arizona have quarterback issues. The Birds have played without pro-bowlers Brian Dawkins, Lito Sheppard, William "Tra" Thomas, tight end L.J. Smith, and their MVP, Westbrook. If the Eagles can get healthy over the bye week and string together a few wins, they’ll be right back in the playoff picture.
It’s also too early to press the panic button on my picks. Last week, nine underdogs not only covered but won outright. So it’s not just me struggling through these games. If Vegas can’t get it right, who can? I am, however, reverting to simply picking by gut feel. Starting right now.
Sunday, October 7, 2007
The Match-up: Atlanta (+8.5) @ Tennessee
The Skinny: OK, Vince Young, I’m sold. Young has carried the Titans to a 2-1 record, including 2-0 on the road and a narrow two-point home loss to the defending champion Colts. I know Joey Harrington has played well in his last two games, but even a broken clock is right twice a day.
Straight Up: Tennessee
Against the Spread: Tennessee
The Match-up: Miami (+5.5) @ Houston
The Skinny: Despite his team’s struggles, Miami’s Ronnie Brown is putting up monster numbers this season, averaging better than five yards a carry. Too bad he can’t play quarterback.
Straight Up: Houston
Against the Spread: Houston
The Match-up: Jacksonville (-2.0) @ Kansas City
The Skinny: Kansas City WR Dwayne Bowe looks like the early front-runner for offensive rookie of the year. Coincidentally, the Chiefs have won two straight after opening 0-2. And, the Chiefs are typically tough to beat at Arrowhead Stadium. So why am I picking Jacksonville? Because despite all the things in Kansas City’s favor, they’re still an underdog. There’s got to be a reason why, right?
Straight Up: Jacksonville
Against the Spread: Jacksonville
The Match-up: Arizona (-3.5) @ St. Louis
The Skinny: If you’re Ken Whisenhunt, how can you not start Kurt Warner in St. Louis this week? As for the Rams, Gus Frerotte handing off to Brian Leonard…is this Week 5 or the pre-season?
Straight Up: Arizona
Against the Spread: Arizona
The Match-up: Cleveland (+16.5) @ New England
The Skinny: Looking for a chink in the Patriots’ armor? How about this – after scoring 38 point in each of their first three games this season, they only managed 34 against Cincinnati on Monday. They’re slipping.
Straight Up: New England
Against the Spread: Cleveland
The Match-up: Carolina (+3.0) @ New Orleans
The Skinny: So much for that vaunted Saints offense. New Orleans has only managed to score 38 points this season. Hell, that’s one week’s total for the Patriots. Or a half for the Eagles. If the Saints don’t get it going this week (without Deuce McAllister, who is out for the year with a torn ACL), you can go ahead and throw dirt on them.
Straight Up: New Orleans
Against the Spread: New Orleans
The Match-up: New York Jets (+3.5) @ New York Giants
The Skinny: After surrendering 97 points in their first ten quarters of the season, the Giants defense has given up only three in six quarters since. My guess is that they won’t notch 12 sacks against Chad Pennington and the Jets, but the Giants defense could make the difference in The Jersey Bowl.
Straight Up: New York Giants
Against the Spread: New York Giants
The Match-up: Seattle (+5.5) @ Pittsburgh
The Skinny: No revenge for the Seahawks in this Super Bowl rematch. Seattle’s pass defense has been torched this year, and Steelers WR Santonio Holmes is averaging move than 20 yards per catch.
Straight Up: Pittsburgh
Against the Spread: Pittsburgh
The Match-up: Detroit (+3.5) @ Washington
The Skinny: Typically, one-dimensional teams are easier to defend. And despite their high-powered passing offense, the Lions simply cannot run the football. Washington’s secondary is very good, and they’ll have their hands full with Roy Williams. But the Redskins are a good running, ball control team and should be able to keep Jon Kitna and company on the sidelines for large chunks of time.
Straight Up: Washington
Against the Spread: Washington
The Match-up: Tampa Bay (+10.0) @ Indianapolis
The Skinny: The bad news for the Bucs? RB Carnell "Cadillac" Williams was placed on injured reserve with a torn patella tendon. The good news? Michael Pittman and Earnest Graham appear capable of carrying the load. The bad news? The Bucs head to Indianapolis this week. The good news? Anyone?
Straight Up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Indianapolis
The Match-up: San Diego (+1.5) @ Denver
The Skinny: So what’s wrong with the Chargers? Was it all Marty Schottenheimer? Not exactly. Remember, the Chargers lost their offensive and defensive coordinators to head coaching vacancies, then GM A.J. Smith fired Schottenheimer. Young QB Philip Rivers is now in his third offensive system in four seasons (no wonder he’s struggling), and his troubles are magnified by the fact that defenses are ganging up on LT and challenging Rivers to beat them. So far, he hasn’t.
Straight Up: Denver
Against the Spread: Denver
The Match-up: Baltimore (-3.5) @ San Francisco
The Skinny: Subplots abound in this one, with former Super Bowl champion QB Trent Dilfer facing his old Ravens club, the same club with which 49ers head coach Mike Nolan cut his NFL teeth. Baltimore’s defense hasn’t look as menacing as in seasons past, and this could be Frank Gore’s official coming out party for the 2007 season.
Straight Up: San Francisco
Against the Spread: San Francisco
The Match-up: Chicago (+3.0) @ Green Bay
The Skinny: Maybe it wasn’t all "Train Wrecks" Grossman’s fault. The Bears finally made a QB switch last week, and Brian Griese threw three picks in a Chicago loss. QB isn’t the issue with the Bears. The lack of a running game is. Letting Thomas Jones walk in the off-season was a horrible decision that is now coming home to roost.
Straight Up: Green Bay
Against the Spread: Green Bay
Monday, October 8, 2007
The Match-up: Dallas (-10.0) @ Buffalo
The Skinny: Nobody circles the wagons like the Buffalo Bills!
Straight Up: Buffalo
Against the Spread: Buffalo
Bye: Cincinnati, Minnesota, Oakland, Philadelphia
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Week 4: 5-9 straight up; 5-9 against the spread
Season: 35-27; 23-33-6
Thursday, September 27, 2007
The Week 4 Picks
There are an abnormal number of road favorites this week, and as I am heading on the road myself, the picks will be brief in nature.
Sunday, September 30, 2007
The Match-up: Green Bay (-1.5) @ Minnesota
The Skinny: The Packers have one nine straight games dating back to 2006, and are 3-0 against three playoff teams of a year ago. Impressive. Brett Favre in a dome? Not impressive.
Straight Up: Minnesota
Against the Spread: Minnesota
The Match-up: Houston (-3.0) @ Atlanta
The Skinny: Matt Schaub torches the Falcons in his homecoming effort.
Straight Up: Houston
Against the Spread: Houston
The Match-up: New York Jets (-3.5) @ Buffalo
The Skinny: The Jets run defense hasn’t been good, but they’re facing a rookie starting quarterback, so they’ll key on Marshawn Lynch.
Straight Up: New York Jets
Against the Spread: New York Jets
The Match-up: Baltimore (-4.5) @ Cleveland
The Skinny: Speaking of poor run defenses, the Browns are allowing 176 yards per game on the ground. Hello, Willis McGahee!
Straight Up: Baltimore
Against the Spread: Baltimore
The Match-up: St. Louis (+12.5) @ Dallas
The Skinny: If you don’t know the name Brian Leonard, you will by Sunday at 4:15.
Straight Up: St. Louis
Against the Spread: St. Louis
The Match-up: Chicago (-2.5) @ Detroit
The Skinny: Brian Griese gets the start for Chicago in place of the ineffective "Wrecks" Grossman.
Straight Up: Chicago
Against the Spread: Chicago
The Match-up: Oakland (+4.0) @ Miami
The Skinny: Can you call this a homecoming for Daunte Culpepper? He did only play five games for Miami, and not well at that.
Straight Up: Oakland
Against the Spread: Oakland
The Match-up: Seattle (-2.0) @ San Francisco
The Skinny: The road has not been kind to the Seahawks in the past.
Straight Up: Seattle
Against the Spread: Seattle
The Match-up: Tampa Bay (Off) @ Carolina
The Skinny: Carolina may start David Carr at quarterback with Jake Del-overrated on the shelf.
Straight Up: Tampa Bay
Against the Spread: Tampa Bay
The Match-up: Pittsburgh (-6.0) @ Arizona
The Skinny: Fortunately for the Northeast Box Company, Kurt Warner came in last week and started throwing the ball to Anquan Boldin.
Straight Up: Pittsburgh
Against the Spread: Pittsburgh
The Match-up: Kansas City (+11.5) @ San Diego
The Skinny: The Saints think the Chargers are struggling.
Straight Up: San Diego
Against the Spread: Kansas City
The Match-up: Denver (+9.5) @ Indianapolis
The Skinny: I knew Denver was bad, yet couldn’t talk myself into a Jaguars upset last week. No such convincing needed this week.
Straight Up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Indianapolis
The Match-up: Philadelphia (-3.0) @ New York Giants
The Skinny: Justice for me would have been Donovan McNabb entering his post-game press conference last week and, without saying a word, holding up a sign with his stats (21/26, 381 Yards, 4 TD, 0 INT, perfect QB rating) and a middle finger for all of his critics.
Straight Up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia
Monday, October 1, 2007
The Match-up: New England (-7.0) @ Cincinnati
The Skinny: this is the kind of game where the Bengals will explode and scare the crap out of Bill Beli-cheat.
Straight Up: New England
Against the Spread: Cincinnati
Bye: Jacksonville, New Orleans, Tennessee, Washington
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Week 2: 9-7 straight up; 5-8-3 against the spread
Season: 30-18; 18-24-6
Sunday, September 30, 2007
The Match-up: Green Bay (-1.5) @ Minnesota
The Skinny: The Packers have one nine straight games dating back to 2006, and are 3-0 against three playoff teams of a year ago. Impressive. Brett Favre in a dome? Not impressive.
Straight Up: Minnesota
Against the Spread: Minnesota
The Match-up: Houston (-3.0) @ Atlanta
The Skinny: Matt Schaub torches the Falcons in his homecoming effort.
Straight Up: Houston
Against the Spread: Houston
The Match-up: New York Jets (-3.5) @ Buffalo
The Skinny: The Jets run defense hasn’t been good, but they’re facing a rookie starting quarterback, so they’ll key on Marshawn Lynch.
Straight Up: New York Jets
Against the Spread: New York Jets
The Match-up: Baltimore (-4.5) @ Cleveland
The Skinny: Speaking of poor run defenses, the Browns are allowing 176 yards per game on the ground. Hello, Willis McGahee!
Straight Up: Baltimore
Against the Spread: Baltimore
The Match-up: St. Louis (+12.5) @ Dallas
The Skinny: If you don’t know the name Brian Leonard, you will by Sunday at 4:15.
Straight Up: St. Louis
Against the Spread: St. Louis
The Match-up: Chicago (-2.5) @ Detroit
The Skinny: Brian Griese gets the start for Chicago in place of the ineffective "Wrecks" Grossman.
Straight Up: Chicago
Against the Spread: Chicago
The Match-up: Oakland (+4.0) @ Miami
The Skinny: Can you call this a homecoming for Daunte Culpepper? He did only play five games for Miami, and not well at that.
Straight Up: Oakland
Against the Spread: Oakland
The Match-up: Seattle (-2.0) @ San Francisco
The Skinny: The road has not been kind to the Seahawks in the past.
Straight Up: Seattle
Against the Spread: Seattle
The Match-up: Tampa Bay (Off) @ Carolina
The Skinny: Carolina may start David Carr at quarterback with Jake Del-overrated on the shelf.
Straight Up: Tampa Bay
Against the Spread: Tampa Bay
The Match-up: Pittsburgh (-6.0) @ Arizona
The Skinny: Fortunately for the Northeast Box Company, Kurt Warner came in last week and started throwing the ball to Anquan Boldin.
Straight Up: Pittsburgh
Against the Spread: Pittsburgh
The Match-up: Kansas City (+11.5) @ San Diego
The Skinny: The Saints think the Chargers are struggling.
Straight Up: San Diego
Against the Spread: Kansas City
The Match-up: Denver (+9.5) @ Indianapolis
The Skinny: I knew Denver was bad, yet couldn’t talk myself into a Jaguars upset last week. No such convincing needed this week.
Straight Up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Indianapolis
The Match-up: Philadelphia (-3.0) @ New York Giants
The Skinny: Justice for me would have been Donovan McNabb entering his post-game press conference last week and, without saying a word, holding up a sign with his stats (21/26, 381 Yards, 4 TD, 0 INT, perfect QB rating) and a middle finger for all of his critics.
Straight Up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia
Monday, October 1, 2007
The Match-up: New England (-7.0) @ Cincinnati
The Skinny: this is the kind of game where the Bengals will explode and scare the crap out of Bill Beli-cheat.
Straight Up: New England
Against the Spread: Cincinnati
Bye: Jacksonville, New Orleans, Tennessee, Washington
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Week 2: 9-7 straight up; 5-8-3 against the spread
Season: 30-18; 18-24-6
Friday, September 21, 2007
The Week 3 Picks
Please forgive me if I seem a little irritable.
You see, as my sports teams go, I go. And right now, nothing seems to be working for me. Yes, the Fightin’ Phils are making a push for their first playoff appearance since 1993. Sure, Flyers training camp is open and they looked poised to return to contender status after a one year blip off the NHL’s radar.
I shouldn’t be focused on the Phillies and Flyers at this time of year, but that’s what happens when my college football team scores like A.C. Green, and when I watch my pro football team stumble out of the gate like a three-legged horse. I’m about as angry as O.J. busting commando-style into a hotel room looking for some stolen memorabilia. And now I’ll be dropping F-bombs like Samuel L. Jackson and Denis Leary, so if foul language offends you, feel free to skip ahead to the picks…
Let’s start with Notre Dame and their offensive ineptitude. I know they’re rebuilding (sorry, Charlie, that’s the word), but this is ridiculous. The Michigan game was a fucking embarrassment. It’s like there wasn’t even an offensive line on the field. Two of the first five snaps went over Jimmy Clausen’s head. They can’t run block (as evidenced by their 120th-ranked rushing offense, worst in the NCAA), nor can they pass block (Irish quarterbacks have been sacked 23 times in three games, also an NCAA worst). On one play, the Wolverines rushed only their four down linemen AND ALL FOUR TACKLED CLAUSEN AT THE SAME TIME!!! What the fuck is that about? How does that even happen? You’d think the five O-linemen might at least get a piece of somebody. The defense may be the strength of the team, and they are on the field for 45 fucking minutes a game because the offense can’t sustain drives. Charlie Weis says they’re going back to the drawing board and starting over, but in the immortal words of S. Phil Hunter, "you can’t make chicken salad out of chicken shit." Take a look at the schedule and see who’s on the horizon – Michigan State (who always gives us fits), Purdue (ditto), UCLA, Boston Fucking College (that’s their official name, by the way), and USC. To be honest, I’m not sure I feel good about Stanford and the service academies, either. Can we beat Duke? Are we really looking at 1-11? I think I need a barf bag.
Remember last year when Donovan McNabb tore his ACL and the Eagles rallied around Brian Westbrook and a renewed commitment to the running game? Well, neither do they. Why the hell are they still throwing the ball 75 percent of the time when you’ve got Westbrook averaging better than five yards per carry? Is Marty Mornhinweg still calling the plays, or is he locked in an equipment trunk somewhere? Reggie Brown and Kevin Curtis are dropping the ball like it’s a fucking hand grenade without a pin. The only guy that catches the ball consistently is Hank Baskett, and he’s basically been relegated to special teams because Andy Reid’s got a boner for Jason Avant. During Monday night’s debacle against Washington, I actually - you may want to sit for this – wished they could get T.O. back. Is it really a coincidence that the one time they made it to the Super Bowl they actually had a legitimate number one receiver?
Look, there’s not a bigger McNabb fan on the planet than me. I’ve been his biggest supporter during his entire tenure in Philly, and he’s been unfairly criticized a lot. Never has a superstar quarterback been asked to do so much with so little. But he shouldn’t be the focal point of the offense, especially if he’s only operating at 80% efficiency right now as he recovers from his ACL surgery. They’ve got to do a better job of running the ball, committing to it 25-30 times a game between Westbrook, Correll Buckhalter, and even Tony Hunt if the other two are spent.
And if McNabb is accurate in his assessment that they need to close the deal sooner than later (and I agree, by the way), they’d better do something about the play-calling and the pu-pu platter of receivers before they have to blow the whole thing up and start over.
Serenity now…serenity now.
Sunday, September 23, 2007
The Match-up: Indianapolis (-6.0) @ Houston
The Skinny: At full strength, I think the Texans could give the Colts a game. No, seriously. But they’ll be without the most under-the-radar WR in the league, Andre Johnson, who’s got a bum knee.
Straight Up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Indianapolis
The Match-up: Buffalo (+16.5) @ New England
The Skinny: I’m not sure if Sunday’s game told me more about the Patriots or the Chargers. Either way, I’m convinced that the Pats are the best team in the league right now. I guess Randy Moss feels like playing this year.
Straight Up: New England
Against the Spread: Buffalo
The Match-up: Miami (+3.0) @ New York Jets
The Skinny: My buddy Keith calls this the "Squish the Fish" game. But Dolphins aren’t fish, they’re mammals. Either way, I think they’ll get squished.
Straight Up: New York Jets
Against the Spread: New York Jets
The Match-up: Detroit (+6.0) @ Philadelphia
The Skinny: Yes, the Eagles are 0-2. They were also 0-2 in 2003, then won 12 of their next 13 and finished the year as the top seed in the NFC. So while I may be concerned, I’m not pushing the panic button…yet.
Straight Up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia
The Match-up: San Francisco (+9.0) @ Pittsburgh
The Skinny: Yes, the Steelers have looked great this season, albeit against inferior opponents Cleveland and Buffalo. It’s not like the 49ers are the ’72 Dolphins, but they should provide a better assessment as to how good the Steelers really are.
Straight Up: Pittsburgh
Against the Spread: Pittsburgh
The Match-up: St. Louis (+3.5) @ Tampa Bay
The Skinny: While neither has offense has lit the world on fire so far, at least the Rams have the potential to explode. Sooner or later, Steven Jackson is going to bust out. Not sure the same can be said of "Cadillac" Williams.
Straight Up: St. Louis
Against the Spread: St. Louis
The Match-up: San Diego (-5.0) @ Green Bay
The Skinny: Dating back to last season, the Packers are on an eight game winning streak. But the Chargers need a rebound after Sunday’s abysmal performance in Foxboro.
Straight Up: San Diego
Against the Spread: Green Bay
The Match-up: Arizona (+8.0) @ Baltimore
The Skinny: New Cardinals head coach should be plenty familiar with the Ravens having spent some time with their division-rival Steelers. This game could come down to the field goal kickers, and Neil Rackers and Matt Stover can both boot them.
Straight Up: Baltimore
Against the Spread: Arizona
The Match-up: Minnesota (+3.0) @ Kansas City
The Skinny: The Vikings are making me look pretty smart for tabbing them as my sleeper team for this year.
Straight Up: Minnesota
Against the Spread: Minnesota
The Match-up: Cleveland (+3.0) @ Oakland
The Skinny: Wait, those were really the Cleveland Browns racking up 51 points last week? They may not score 51 points over the next four weeks.
Straight Up: Oakland
Against the Spread: Oakland
The Match-up: Cincinnati (+3.5) @ Seattle
The Skinny: Maybe the Bengals defense isn’t new and improved. I’m sure a lot of people picked them up on waivers for their fantasy teams and got burned.
Straight Up: Seattle
Against the Spread: Seattle
The Match-up: Jacksonville (+3.0) @ Denver
The Skinny: The Broncos have to be the most unimpressive 2-0 team in the league. They needed a last second field goal to beat Buffalo, and overtime to knock off Oakland. At home against a Jacksonville team that can’t seem to find its offense, they’re probably looking at another squeaker.
Straight Up: Denver
Against the Spread: Denver
The Match-up: Carolina (-3.5) @ Atlanta
The Skinny: I figure if I keep picking them to win, maybe they’ll lose (since they’ve already screwed me twice this season).
Straight Up: Carolina
Against the Spread: Carolina
The Match-up: New York Giants (+3.5) @ Washington
The Skinny: I thought the MNF guys made a good point the other night – all of Washington’s starters in the secondary are former first-round picks. So glad the Eagles decided to chuck it 46 times against them. Serenity now…serenity now.
Straight Up: Washington
Against the Spread: Washington
The Match-up: Dallas (+3.0) @ Chicago
The Skinny: If I’m Lovie Smith, I’m getting Devin Hester on the field in every possible situation. I say he breaks one against the stinkin’ Cowboys.
Straight Up: Chicago
Against the Spread: Chicago
Monday, September 24, 2007
The Match-up: Tennessee (+4.0) @ New Orleans
The Skinny: So were the Saints an anomaly last year, or are they truly better than they’ve been this year? They were outstanding in front of their home crowd in 2006. I’m banking on them feeding off that again.
Straight Up: New Orleans
Against the Spread: New Orleans
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Week 2: 9-7 straight up; 6-9-1 against the spread
Season: 21-11; 13-16-3
You see, as my sports teams go, I go. And right now, nothing seems to be working for me. Yes, the Fightin’ Phils are making a push for their first playoff appearance since 1993. Sure, Flyers training camp is open and they looked poised to return to contender status after a one year blip off the NHL’s radar.
I shouldn’t be focused on the Phillies and Flyers at this time of year, but that’s what happens when my college football team scores like A.C. Green, and when I watch my pro football team stumble out of the gate like a three-legged horse. I’m about as angry as O.J. busting commando-style into a hotel room looking for some stolen memorabilia. And now I’ll be dropping F-bombs like Samuel L. Jackson and Denis Leary, so if foul language offends you, feel free to skip ahead to the picks…
Let’s start with Notre Dame and their offensive ineptitude. I know they’re rebuilding (sorry, Charlie, that’s the word), but this is ridiculous. The Michigan game was a fucking embarrassment. It’s like there wasn’t even an offensive line on the field. Two of the first five snaps went over Jimmy Clausen’s head. They can’t run block (as evidenced by their 120th-ranked rushing offense, worst in the NCAA), nor can they pass block (Irish quarterbacks have been sacked 23 times in three games, also an NCAA worst). On one play, the Wolverines rushed only their four down linemen AND ALL FOUR TACKLED CLAUSEN AT THE SAME TIME!!! What the fuck is that about? How does that even happen? You’d think the five O-linemen might at least get a piece of somebody. The defense may be the strength of the team, and they are on the field for 45 fucking minutes a game because the offense can’t sustain drives. Charlie Weis says they’re going back to the drawing board and starting over, but in the immortal words of S. Phil Hunter, "you can’t make chicken salad out of chicken shit." Take a look at the schedule and see who’s on the horizon – Michigan State (who always gives us fits), Purdue (ditto), UCLA, Boston Fucking College (that’s their official name, by the way), and USC. To be honest, I’m not sure I feel good about Stanford and the service academies, either. Can we beat Duke? Are we really looking at 1-11? I think I need a barf bag.
Remember last year when Donovan McNabb tore his ACL and the Eagles rallied around Brian Westbrook and a renewed commitment to the running game? Well, neither do they. Why the hell are they still throwing the ball 75 percent of the time when you’ve got Westbrook averaging better than five yards per carry? Is Marty Mornhinweg still calling the plays, or is he locked in an equipment trunk somewhere? Reggie Brown and Kevin Curtis are dropping the ball like it’s a fucking hand grenade without a pin. The only guy that catches the ball consistently is Hank Baskett, and he’s basically been relegated to special teams because Andy Reid’s got a boner for Jason Avant. During Monday night’s debacle against Washington, I actually - you may want to sit for this – wished they could get T.O. back. Is it really a coincidence that the one time they made it to the Super Bowl they actually had a legitimate number one receiver?
Look, there’s not a bigger McNabb fan on the planet than me. I’ve been his biggest supporter during his entire tenure in Philly, and he’s been unfairly criticized a lot. Never has a superstar quarterback been asked to do so much with so little. But he shouldn’t be the focal point of the offense, especially if he’s only operating at 80% efficiency right now as he recovers from his ACL surgery. They’ve got to do a better job of running the ball, committing to it 25-30 times a game between Westbrook, Correll Buckhalter, and even Tony Hunt if the other two are spent.
And if McNabb is accurate in his assessment that they need to close the deal sooner than later (and I agree, by the way), they’d better do something about the play-calling and the pu-pu platter of receivers before they have to blow the whole thing up and start over.
Serenity now…serenity now.
Sunday, September 23, 2007
The Match-up: Indianapolis (-6.0) @ Houston
The Skinny: At full strength, I think the Texans could give the Colts a game. No, seriously. But they’ll be without the most under-the-radar WR in the league, Andre Johnson, who’s got a bum knee.
Straight Up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Indianapolis
The Match-up: Buffalo (+16.5) @ New England
The Skinny: I’m not sure if Sunday’s game told me more about the Patriots or the Chargers. Either way, I’m convinced that the Pats are the best team in the league right now. I guess Randy Moss feels like playing this year.
Straight Up: New England
Against the Spread: Buffalo
The Match-up: Miami (+3.0) @ New York Jets
The Skinny: My buddy Keith calls this the "Squish the Fish" game. But Dolphins aren’t fish, they’re mammals. Either way, I think they’ll get squished.
Straight Up: New York Jets
Against the Spread: New York Jets
The Match-up: Detroit (+6.0) @ Philadelphia
The Skinny: Yes, the Eagles are 0-2. They were also 0-2 in 2003, then won 12 of their next 13 and finished the year as the top seed in the NFC. So while I may be concerned, I’m not pushing the panic button…yet.
Straight Up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia
The Match-up: San Francisco (+9.0) @ Pittsburgh
The Skinny: Yes, the Steelers have looked great this season, albeit against inferior opponents Cleveland and Buffalo. It’s not like the 49ers are the ’72 Dolphins, but they should provide a better assessment as to how good the Steelers really are.
Straight Up: Pittsburgh
Against the Spread: Pittsburgh
The Match-up: St. Louis (+3.5) @ Tampa Bay
The Skinny: While neither has offense has lit the world on fire so far, at least the Rams have the potential to explode. Sooner or later, Steven Jackson is going to bust out. Not sure the same can be said of "Cadillac" Williams.
Straight Up: St. Louis
Against the Spread: St. Louis
The Match-up: San Diego (-5.0) @ Green Bay
The Skinny: Dating back to last season, the Packers are on an eight game winning streak. But the Chargers need a rebound after Sunday’s abysmal performance in Foxboro.
Straight Up: San Diego
Against the Spread: Green Bay
The Match-up: Arizona (+8.0) @ Baltimore
The Skinny: New Cardinals head coach should be plenty familiar with the Ravens having spent some time with their division-rival Steelers. This game could come down to the field goal kickers, and Neil Rackers and Matt Stover can both boot them.
Straight Up: Baltimore
Against the Spread: Arizona
The Match-up: Minnesota (+3.0) @ Kansas City
The Skinny: The Vikings are making me look pretty smart for tabbing them as my sleeper team for this year.
Straight Up: Minnesota
Against the Spread: Minnesota
The Match-up: Cleveland (+3.0) @ Oakland
The Skinny: Wait, those were really the Cleveland Browns racking up 51 points last week? They may not score 51 points over the next four weeks.
Straight Up: Oakland
Against the Spread: Oakland
The Match-up: Cincinnati (+3.5) @ Seattle
The Skinny: Maybe the Bengals defense isn’t new and improved. I’m sure a lot of people picked them up on waivers for their fantasy teams and got burned.
Straight Up: Seattle
Against the Spread: Seattle
The Match-up: Jacksonville (+3.0) @ Denver
The Skinny: The Broncos have to be the most unimpressive 2-0 team in the league. They needed a last second field goal to beat Buffalo, and overtime to knock off Oakland. At home against a Jacksonville team that can’t seem to find its offense, they’re probably looking at another squeaker.
Straight Up: Denver
Against the Spread: Denver
The Match-up: Carolina (-3.5) @ Atlanta
The Skinny: I figure if I keep picking them to win, maybe they’ll lose (since they’ve already screwed me twice this season).
Straight Up: Carolina
Against the Spread: Carolina
The Match-up: New York Giants (+3.5) @ Washington
The Skinny: I thought the MNF guys made a good point the other night – all of Washington’s starters in the secondary are former first-round picks. So glad the Eagles decided to chuck it 46 times against them. Serenity now…serenity now.
Straight Up: Washington
Against the Spread: Washington
The Match-up: Dallas (+3.0) @ Chicago
The Skinny: If I’m Lovie Smith, I’m getting Devin Hester on the field in every possible situation. I say he breaks one against the stinkin’ Cowboys.
Straight Up: Chicago
Against the Spread: Chicago
Monday, September 24, 2007
The Match-up: Tennessee (+4.0) @ New Orleans
The Skinny: So were the Saints an anomaly last year, or are they truly better than they’ve been this year? They were outstanding in front of their home crowd in 2006. I’m banking on them feeding off that again.
Straight Up: New Orleans
Against the Spread: New Orleans
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Week 2: 9-7 straight up; 6-9-1 against the spread
Season: 21-11; 13-16-3
Friday, September 14, 2007
The Week 2 Picks
If you’re not cheating, you’re not trying.
I’m not sure who originally penned that phrase, but growing up playing sports, I heard it uttered countless times. I guess the implication was that athletes bend the rules in order to gain a competitive edge.
Here’s another one I heard a lot - It’s only cheating if you get caught.
Well, this week, the Patriots got caught. A team representative was nabbed for videotaping the Jets coaching staff in an effort to determine defensive calls and things of that nature. Obviously, it worked (the Pats rolled, 38-14). What’s worse, New England coach Bill Belichick is apparently a repeat offender, having been accused of these types of tactics before. It’s not like Roger Goodell came down hard. Belichick was assessed a $500,000 fine, the team another $250,000, and the Patriots will forfeit one of their two 2008 first-round picks. Personally, I think a suspension would have been in order, especially with some of the other, stiffer punishments doled out by the commish.
With all this in mind, I wonder about the legitimacy of the Patriots’ 24-21 win over the Eagles in Super Bowl XXXIX. As stated in this article, the evidence is damning. New England amassed only 45 yards in the first quarter, and 268 for the remaining three. The Eagles would blitz, and the Pats would run a little screen pass to that side.
Hmmmm…
So am I just crazy? Or am I a conspiracy theorist? Or am I a bitter Eagles fan who now feels like we deserved a better fate in that game?
Yes, yes, and yes.
And, if they were to somehow, some way award the Eagles a victory in that game, would I celebrate it three years later?
You bet your asterisk I would.
Sunday, September 16, 2007
The Match-up: Houston (+6.5) @ Carolina
The Skinny: So the good Jake Del-overrated showed up last week for the Panthers. Will he show up again?
Straight Up: Carolina
Against the Spread: Carolina
The Match-up: Atlanta (+10.0) @ Jacksonville
The Skinny: Neither of these teams impressed last week, with the Jaguars losing at home to Tennessee and the Falcons falling to Houston. If their opener is any indication, the Falcons should be able to run the ball at will, which will at the very least keep it close.
Straight Up: Jacksonville
Against the Spread: Atlanta
The Match-up: Indianapolis (-7.0) @ Tennessee
The Skinny: It seems like forever ago that the Colts opened their Super Bowl defense with a 31- point dismantling of the Saints. I bet Vince Young sees it every time he closes his eyes.
Straight Up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Indianapolis
The Match-up: San Francisco (+3.0) @ St. Louis
The Skinny: While San Francisco didn’t look great in winning last week, St. Louis looked awful in losing. Just a hunch here, but both teams are likely better than they showed a week ago.
Straight Up: San Francisco
Against the Spread: San Francisco
The Match-up: Green Bay (Pick) @ New York Giants
The Skinny: Now starting at quarterback for your New York Giants – the Pillsbury Throwboy!!!
Straight Up: Green Bay
Against the Spread: Green Bay
The Match-up: Buffalo (+9.5) @ Pittsburgh
The Skinny: A gimpy Travis Henry racked up 139 yards against Buffalo in Buffalo last week. Willie Parker should be chomping at the bit right now.
Straight Up: Pittsburgh
Against the Spread: Pittsburgh
The Match-up: Cincinnati (-6.5) @ Cleveland
The Skinny: Memo to Browns brain trust – I know you think you’re trying to protect your investment by keeping Brady Quinn on the sideline in a baseball cap. You’re going to have to start him sooner or later. Why not now?
Straight Up: Cincinnati
Against the Spread: Cincinnati
The Match-up: New Orleans (-3.5) @ Tampa Bay
The Skinny: Even in their hey day, the Buccaneers defense was susceptible to the run. Enter Deuce McAllister.
Straight Up: New Orleans
Against the Spread: New Orleans
The Match-up: Minnesota (+3.0) @ Detroit
The Skinny: With a win on Sunday, the Lions could be 2-0 for the first time since the Barry Sanders administration. But the Vikings are my sleeper for a reason. Their defense was sensational last week, and Adrian Peterson is as good as advertised.
Straight Up: Minnesota
Against the Spread: Minnesota
The Match-up: Dallas (-3.5) @ Miami
The Skinny: At least the Cowboys will be challenged by Miami’s defense.
Straight Up: Miami
Against the Spread: Miami
The Match-up: Seattle (-3.0) @ Arizona
The Skinny: Good omen for the Seahawks – they are 30-6 when Shaun Alexander runs for over 100 yards. Even if he has to carry the ball 30 times to get there.
Straight Up: Seattle
Against the Spread: Seattle
The Match-up: New York Jets (+10.0) @ Baltimore
The Skinny: I’m not sure why this line is so high. I’d venture to argue that the drop off from Steve McNair to Kyle Boller is greater than Chad Pennington to Kellen Clemens. I almost want to take the Jets to win outright.
Straight Up: Baltimore
Against the Spread: New York Jets
The Match-up: Kansas City (+12.0) @ Chicago
The Skinny: If the Bears defense can replicate their effort of a week ago, when they put the clamps on San Diego’s potent offense, Kansas City has pretty much no shot.
Straight Up: Chicago
Against the Spread: Chicago
The Match-up: Oakland (+10.0) @ Denver
The Skinny: Weird win for the Broncos last week. They outgained Buffalo 470-184, yet needed a Jason Elam field goal at the gun to beat the Bills. Not sure if I’m encouraged or discouraged by that kind of performance.
Straight Up: Denver
Against the Spread: Denver
The Match-up: San Diego (+3.5) @ New England
The Skinny: So, will “Videogate” be a distraction to the Patriots? Or, will they be able to beat San Diego without taped assistance? Until proven otherwise, I still don’t feel comfortable going against New England at home.
Straight Up: New England
Against the Spread: New England
Monday, September 17, 2007
The Match-up: Washington (+6.5) @ Philadelphia
The Skinny: Last week’s game illustrates just how important special teams are. If the Eagles could fair catch a punt, they’d be 1-0 right now. Welcome home, Reno Mahe!
Straight Up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Week 1: 12-4 straight up; 7-7-2 against the spread
Season: 12-4; 7-7-2
I’m not sure who originally penned that phrase, but growing up playing sports, I heard it uttered countless times. I guess the implication was that athletes bend the rules in order to gain a competitive edge.
Here’s another one I heard a lot - It’s only cheating if you get caught.
Well, this week, the Patriots got caught. A team representative was nabbed for videotaping the Jets coaching staff in an effort to determine defensive calls and things of that nature. Obviously, it worked (the Pats rolled, 38-14). What’s worse, New England coach Bill Belichick is apparently a repeat offender, having been accused of these types of tactics before. It’s not like Roger Goodell came down hard. Belichick was assessed a $500,000 fine, the team another $250,000, and the Patriots will forfeit one of their two 2008 first-round picks. Personally, I think a suspension would have been in order, especially with some of the other, stiffer punishments doled out by the commish.
With all this in mind, I wonder about the legitimacy of the Patriots’ 24-21 win over the Eagles in Super Bowl XXXIX. As stated in this article, the evidence is damning. New England amassed only 45 yards in the first quarter, and 268 for the remaining three. The Eagles would blitz, and the Pats would run a little screen pass to that side.
Hmmmm…
So am I just crazy? Or am I a conspiracy theorist? Or am I a bitter Eagles fan who now feels like we deserved a better fate in that game?
Yes, yes, and yes.
And, if they were to somehow, some way award the Eagles a victory in that game, would I celebrate it three years later?
You bet your asterisk I would.
Sunday, September 16, 2007
The Match-up: Houston (+6.5) @ Carolina
The Skinny: So the good Jake Del-overrated showed up last week for the Panthers. Will he show up again?
Straight Up: Carolina
Against the Spread: Carolina
The Match-up: Atlanta (+10.0) @ Jacksonville
The Skinny: Neither of these teams impressed last week, with the Jaguars losing at home to Tennessee and the Falcons falling to Houston. If their opener is any indication, the Falcons should be able to run the ball at will, which will at the very least keep it close.
Straight Up: Jacksonville
Against the Spread: Atlanta
The Match-up: Indianapolis (-7.0) @ Tennessee
The Skinny: It seems like forever ago that the Colts opened their Super Bowl defense with a 31- point dismantling of the Saints. I bet Vince Young sees it every time he closes his eyes.
Straight Up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Indianapolis
The Match-up: San Francisco (+3.0) @ St. Louis
The Skinny: While San Francisco didn’t look great in winning last week, St. Louis looked awful in losing. Just a hunch here, but both teams are likely better than they showed a week ago.
Straight Up: San Francisco
Against the Spread: San Francisco
The Match-up: Green Bay (Pick) @ New York Giants
The Skinny: Now starting at quarterback for your New York Giants – the Pillsbury Throwboy!!!
Straight Up: Green Bay
Against the Spread: Green Bay
The Match-up: Buffalo (+9.5) @ Pittsburgh
The Skinny: A gimpy Travis Henry racked up 139 yards against Buffalo in Buffalo last week. Willie Parker should be chomping at the bit right now.
Straight Up: Pittsburgh
Against the Spread: Pittsburgh
The Match-up: Cincinnati (-6.5) @ Cleveland
The Skinny: Memo to Browns brain trust – I know you think you’re trying to protect your investment by keeping Brady Quinn on the sideline in a baseball cap. You’re going to have to start him sooner or later. Why not now?
Straight Up: Cincinnati
Against the Spread: Cincinnati
The Match-up: New Orleans (-3.5) @ Tampa Bay
The Skinny: Even in their hey day, the Buccaneers defense was susceptible to the run. Enter Deuce McAllister.
Straight Up: New Orleans
Against the Spread: New Orleans
The Match-up: Minnesota (+3.0) @ Detroit
The Skinny: With a win on Sunday, the Lions could be 2-0 for the first time since the Barry Sanders administration. But the Vikings are my sleeper for a reason. Their defense was sensational last week, and Adrian Peterson is as good as advertised.
Straight Up: Minnesota
Against the Spread: Minnesota
The Match-up: Dallas (-3.5) @ Miami
The Skinny: At least the Cowboys will be challenged by Miami’s defense.
Straight Up: Miami
Against the Spread: Miami
The Match-up: Seattle (-3.0) @ Arizona
The Skinny: Good omen for the Seahawks – they are 30-6 when Shaun Alexander runs for over 100 yards. Even if he has to carry the ball 30 times to get there.
Straight Up: Seattle
Against the Spread: Seattle
The Match-up: New York Jets (+10.0) @ Baltimore
The Skinny: I’m not sure why this line is so high. I’d venture to argue that the drop off from Steve McNair to Kyle Boller is greater than Chad Pennington to Kellen Clemens. I almost want to take the Jets to win outright.
Straight Up: Baltimore
Against the Spread: New York Jets
The Match-up: Kansas City (+12.0) @ Chicago
The Skinny: If the Bears defense can replicate their effort of a week ago, when they put the clamps on San Diego’s potent offense, Kansas City has pretty much no shot.
Straight Up: Chicago
Against the Spread: Chicago
The Match-up: Oakland (+10.0) @ Denver
The Skinny: Weird win for the Broncos last week. They outgained Buffalo 470-184, yet needed a Jason Elam field goal at the gun to beat the Bills. Not sure if I’m encouraged or discouraged by that kind of performance.
Straight Up: Denver
Against the Spread: Denver
The Match-up: San Diego (+3.5) @ New England
The Skinny: So, will “Videogate” be a distraction to the Patriots? Or, will they be able to beat San Diego without taped assistance? Until proven otherwise, I still don’t feel comfortable going against New England at home.
Straight Up: New England
Against the Spread: New England
Monday, September 17, 2007
The Match-up: Washington (+6.5) @ Philadelphia
The Skinny: Last week’s game illustrates just how important special teams are. If the Eagles could fair catch a punt, they’d be 1-0 right now. Welcome home, Reno Mahe!
Straight Up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Week 1: 12-4 straight up; 7-7-2 against the spread
Season: 12-4; 7-7-2
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