The Week 9 Picks

"Don’t believe the hype." – Public Enemy

I’m not sure if you know this or not, but the Patriots and Colts are both undefeated, and they play against each other this week. You’d think a game of this magnitude would generate some kind of buzz…

In all seriousness, I’m really excited to watch this game, being billed by some media outlets as "Super Bowl XLI and a half." Typically once the Super Bowl match-up is decided, I get a gut feeling about one of the participants, and then spend the next two weeks being sold on the other team to the point where I almost change my mind.

A lot of what I’ve heard lately circles around Indianapolis and how they’ve won twelve straight, including last year’s playoffs when they hoisted the Lombardi Trophy. The Colts are the home team, yet they’re an underdog. They’ve played the tougher schedule and come out unscathed. And they’ve got a defense that can challenge the mighty Patriots. So Indianapolis wins the game right?

Not quite.

Look, it’s not that everything I just mentioned isn’t true, because it absolutely is. But I’ve watched both teams play this season, and the Pats have passed my eye test. They aren’t just beating teams, they’re demoralizing them. They’re absolutely unstoppable, and I won’t be fooled by all of the pro-Colts hype.

And can we stop with all of this nonsense about the Patriots running up the score? It’s the NFL. There is no such thing as running up the score. To me, it’s a lot like the excessive celebration stuff. If you don’t want a guy dancing on your team’s logo in the end zone, keep him from scoring. If you’ve got a problem with a team hanging half a hundred on you, play some defense. After all, it’s obvious the Bill Belichick won’t be calling off the dogs this year.

Oh yeah, it’s also Dallas week in Philly, and I’ve been asked by more than a few people to dial up an Eagles win, including my man Giants Jim from the neighborhood. The funny thing is, this is the kind of game that the Birds will win, when nobody’s giving them a shot. A Week 7 home game against the Bears of no real significance except for the attendance of one particular fan? Come from ahead to lose by allowing a 97-yard drive in 1:43 with no timeouts. 6-1 Dallas comes to town as the odds-on favorite in the NFC?

Watch what happens.

Sunday, November 4, 2007

The Match-up: Arizona (+3.5) @ Tampa Bay
The Skinny: Jeff Garcia and the Bucs turned the ball over uncharacteristically last week in losing to Jacksonville. If they can cut out the miscues, they should be able to handle the Cardinals.
Straight Up: Tampa Bay
Against the Spread: Tampa Bay

The Match-up: Denver (+3.0) @ Detroit
The Skinny: We’ve gone down this road with Denver already. They’re simply not that good. Detroit, on the other hand, is halfway to the ten wins predicted by Jon Kitna in the pre-season. The Lions still have two games against Green Bay, plus dates with Dallas, the Giants. Not sure they’re getting to ten, but they’re still better than the Broncos.
Straight Up: Detroit
Against the Spread: Detroit

The Match-up: Carolina (+4.0) @ Tennessee
The Skinny: The Panthers are winless in three tries at home this season, yet they’re a perfect 4-0 on the road. So much for home field advantage.
Straight Up: Carolina
Against the Spread: Carolina

The Match-up: Green Bay (+2.0) @ Kansas City
The Skinny: The Packers may have solved their running game issues with former Notre Dame great Ryan Grant. I know Arrowhead is a tough place to play, but if you’re going to give me points with a 6-1 team, I’ll take them nine times out of ten.
Straight Up: Green Bay
Against the Spread: Green Bay

The Match-up: San Diego (-7.0) @ Minnesota
The Skinny: The upside-down world of the NFL is starting to right itself, as the Chargers are back beating teams with LaDanian Tomlinson dominating and Philip Rivers throwing the ball sparingly. As long as he keeps throwing it to Antonio Gates, I’m alright with it.
Straight Up: San Diego
Against the Spread: San Diego

The Match-up: Jacksonville (+3.0) @ New Orleans
The Skinny: Speaking of righting the ship, the Saints are 3-0 since I implored their fans to break out the brown paper bags and bring back the "Ain’ts." You’re welcome.
Straight Up: New Orleans
Against the Spread: New Orleans

The Match-up: San Francisco (+3.5) @ Atlanta
The Skinny: Memo to Bobby Petrino – Embrace the youth movement and hand the ball to Jerious Norwood 25 times a game. Please?
Straight Up: Atlanta
Against the Spread: Atlanta

The Match-up: Washington (-3.5) @ New York Jets
The Skinny: ESPN Radio’s Freddie Coleman broke out this gem last week: "JETS" now stands for "Just End The Season." Kellen Clemens finally gets the starting nod for gang green.
Straight Up: Washington
Against the Spread: Washington

The Match-up: Cincinnati (+1.0) @ Buffalo
The Skinny: Yes, I’m taking J.P. Losman over Carson Palmer. The Bengals train careened off the track, and the players seem so uninspired it’s almost frightening.
Straight Up: Buffalo
Against the Spread: Buffalo

The Match-up: Seattle (+1.5) @ Cleveland
The Skinny: I think I saw a picture of Shaun Alexander on the side of a milk carton the other day. Where has he disappeared to? Cleveland’s run defense should have Alexander coming out of hiding.
Straight Up: Seattle
Against the Spread: Seattle

The Match-up: New England (-5.0) @ Indianapolis
The Skinny: I think there’s been enough said about this game already.
Straight Up: New England
Against the Spread: New England

The Match-up: Houston (+3.0) @ Oakland
The Skinny: You mean Josh McCown vs. Sage Rosenfels doesn’t earn top billing on CBS this weekend?
Straight Up: Houston
Against the Spread: Houston

The Match-up: Dallas (-3.5) @ Philadelphia
The Skinny: The bottom line is the Eagles need this one. They need it for their playoff chances. They need it for their embattled head coach. They need it for their fans.
Straight Up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia

Monday, November 5, 2007

The Match-up: Baltimore (+9.0) @ Pittsburgh
The Skinny: The Steelers are at home and will be breaking out the throwback jerseys which will get the crowd all riled up. But this line seems a little high to me.
Straight Up: Pittsburgh
Against the Spread: Baltimore

Bye: Chicago, Miami, New York Giants, St. Louis
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Week 8: 9-4 straight up; 9-4 against the spread
Season: 69-47; 51-57-8