The Week 5 Picks

"The Eagles need to pull out the yellow and blue jerseys again." – Christopher Benson, on the heels of the Eagles’ embarrassing 16-3 loss to the Giants in Week 4.

What’s worse, the fact that the Eagles have scored twice as many points in their one win where they busted out the Team Sweden throwbacks than they have in their three losses combined, or the fact that Andy Reid still seems oblivious to the notion that you can win football games without chucking it 45 times a game?

I’m fearful that the Eagles system that has been so successful over the last nine years is starting to break down. Donovan McNabb could get away with mediocre receivers in the past because he was elusive, explosive, and a threat to run. Now that he’s had three major lower-body injuries in the last five years, he’s not as mobile as he used to be. The receivers they have can’t get any kind of separation from the defender, meaning opposing corners can play press man-to-man coverage and blitz the hell out of McNabb, who has basically two seconds to throw the ball before he gets sacked.

Here are three simple things they could do to help Donovan McNabb:
1. Bring in an elite wide receiver or two that can stretch the field – I know they used to have one who will remain nameless, but he was a piece of crap, so he had to go. Someone of his caliber who can get off a jam at the line of scrimmage and get downfield would be a tremendous asset.
2. Play a second tight end in lieu of a fullback – Against a two tight end set, opposing defenses probably wouldn’t play nickel, meaning they could sneak Brian Westbrook out of the backfield against a safety or linebacker, which is a favorable match-up no matter who’s trying to defend him.
3. Run the football more – Westbrook can do it, Correll Buckhalter can do it, I’d bet even Tony Hunt could do it if given the chance. But the bottom line is they need to be more balanced on offense. I thought Reid would have learned this lesson last November, but evidently not.

Look, it’s still waaaaaaaaaaaaaaay to early to press the panic button. The fact is, other than Dallas and Green Bay, nobody’s running away in the NFC. I know Seattle is 3-1 (and I think they may have already clinched the West) and Tampa Bay is off to a nice start, but they aren’t considered elite teams yet. Chicago and New Orleans are both in the tank, and everybody’s sleepers San Francisco and Arizona have quarterback issues. The Birds have played without pro-bowlers Brian Dawkins, Lito Sheppard, William "Tra" Thomas, tight end L.J. Smith, and their MVP, Westbrook. If the Eagles can get healthy over the bye week and string together a few wins, they’ll be right back in the playoff picture.

It’s also too early to press the panic button on my picks. Last week, nine underdogs not only covered but won outright. So it’s not just me struggling through these games. If Vegas can’t get it right, who can? I am, however, reverting to simply picking by gut feel. Starting right now.

Sunday, October 7, 2007

The Match-up: Atlanta (+8.5) @ Tennessee
The Skinny: OK, Vince Young, I’m sold. Young has carried the Titans to a 2-1 record, including 2-0 on the road and a narrow two-point home loss to the defending champion Colts. I know Joey Harrington has played well in his last two games, but even a broken clock is right twice a day.
Straight Up: Tennessee
Against the Spread: Tennessee

The Match-up: Miami (+5.5) @ Houston
The Skinny: Despite his team’s struggles, Miami’s Ronnie Brown is putting up monster numbers this season, averaging better than five yards a carry. Too bad he can’t play quarterback.
Straight Up: Houston
Against the Spread: Houston

The Match-up: Jacksonville (-2.0) @ Kansas City
The Skinny: Kansas City WR Dwayne Bowe looks like the early front-runner for offensive rookie of the year. Coincidentally, the Chiefs have won two straight after opening 0-2. And, the Chiefs are typically tough to beat at Arrowhead Stadium. So why am I picking Jacksonville? Because despite all the things in Kansas City’s favor, they’re still an underdog. There’s got to be a reason why, right?
Straight Up: Jacksonville
Against the Spread: Jacksonville

The Match-up: Arizona (-3.5) @ St. Louis
The Skinny: If you’re Ken Whisenhunt, how can you not start Kurt Warner in St. Louis this week? As for the Rams, Gus Frerotte handing off to Brian Leonard…is this Week 5 or the pre-season?
Straight Up: Arizona
Against the Spread: Arizona

The Match-up: Cleveland (+16.5) @ New England
The Skinny: Looking for a chink in the Patriots’ armor? How about this – after scoring 38 point in each of their first three games this season, they only managed 34 against Cincinnati on Monday. They’re slipping.
Straight Up: New England
Against the Spread: Cleveland

The Match-up: Carolina (+3.0) @ New Orleans
The Skinny: So much for that vaunted Saints offense. New Orleans has only managed to score 38 points this season. Hell, that’s one week’s total for the Patriots. Or a half for the Eagles. If the Saints don’t get it going this week (without Deuce McAllister, who is out for the year with a torn ACL), you can go ahead and throw dirt on them.
Straight Up: New Orleans
Against the Spread: New Orleans

The Match-up: New York Jets (+3.5) @ New York Giants
The Skinny: After surrendering 97 points in their first ten quarters of the season, the Giants defense has given up only three in six quarters since. My guess is that they won’t notch 12 sacks against Chad Pennington and the Jets, but the Giants defense could make the difference in The Jersey Bowl.
Straight Up: New York Giants
Against the Spread: New York Giants

The Match-up: Seattle (+5.5) @ Pittsburgh
The Skinny: No revenge for the Seahawks in this Super Bowl rematch. Seattle’s pass defense has been torched this year, and Steelers WR Santonio Holmes is averaging move than 20 yards per catch.
Straight Up: Pittsburgh
Against the Spread: Pittsburgh

The Match-up: Detroit (+3.5) @ Washington
The Skinny: Typically, one-dimensional teams are easier to defend. And despite their high-powered passing offense, the Lions simply cannot run the football. Washington’s secondary is very good, and they’ll have their hands full with Roy Williams. But the Redskins are a good running, ball control team and should be able to keep Jon Kitna and company on the sidelines for large chunks of time.
Straight Up: Washington
Against the Spread: Washington

The Match-up: Tampa Bay (+10.0) @ Indianapolis
The Skinny: The bad news for the Bucs? RB Carnell "Cadillac" Williams was placed on injured reserve with a torn patella tendon. The good news? Michael Pittman and Earnest Graham appear capable of carrying the load. The bad news? The Bucs head to Indianapolis this week. The good news? Anyone?
Straight Up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Indianapolis

The Match-up: San Diego (+1.5) @ Denver
The Skinny: So what’s wrong with the Chargers? Was it all Marty Schottenheimer? Not exactly. Remember, the Chargers lost their offensive and defensive coordinators to head coaching vacancies, then GM A.J. Smith fired Schottenheimer. Young QB Philip Rivers is now in his third offensive system in four seasons (no wonder he’s struggling), and his troubles are magnified by the fact that defenses are ganging up on LT and challenging Rivers to beat them. So far, he hasn’t.
Straight Up: Denver
Against the Spread: Denver

The Match-up: Baltimore (-3.5) @ San Francisco
The Skinny: Subplots abound in this one, with former Super Bowl champion QB Trent Dilfer facing his old Ravens club, the same club with which 49ers head coach Mike Nolan cut his NFL teeth. Baltimore’s defense hasn’t look as menacing as in seasons past, and this could be Frank Gore’s official coming out party for the 2007 season.
Straight Up: San Francisco
Against the Spread: San Francisco

The Match-up: Chicago (+3.0) @ Green Bay
The Skinny: Maybe it wasn’t all "Train Wrecks" Grossman’s fault. The Bears finally made a QB switch last week, and Brian Griese threw three picks in a Chicago loss. QB isn’t the issue with the Bears. The lack of a running game is. Letting Thomas Jones walk in the off-season was a horrible decision that is now coming home to roost.
Straight Up: Green Bay
Against the Spread: Green Bay

Monday, October 8, 2007

The Match-up: Dallas (-10.0) @ Buffalo
The Skinny: Nobody circles the wagons like the Buffalo Bills!
Straight Up: Buffalo
Against the Spread: Buffalo

Bye: Cincinnati, Minnesota, Oakland, Philadelphia
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Week 4: 5-9 straight up; 5-9 against the spread
Season: 35-27; 23-33-6