The Week 17 Picks

And so we’ve reached the end of the regular season, and this weekend’s games are peppered with playoff implications, resting starters, and of course, the Reggie Bush Bowl between Houston and San Francisco (which could actually play out more like a lottery, as up to five teams could be tied for the worst record in the league). This is always one of the toughest weeks to pick, just for the record. Also, look for the first annual “Season Preview Review”coming next week. Read on, and Happy New Year to you!

The Match-up: Denver (+10.5) @ San Diego
The Skinny: The Broncos are locked into the #2 spot in the AFC, thus many of their regulars will be on the sidelines in baseball caps. San Diego, loaded as they are, should be playing for more than pride against a division rival.
Straight up: San Diego
Against the Spread: San Diego

The Match-up: New York Giants (-9.0) @ Oakland
The Skinny: Typically, I steer clear of Eli Manning on the road. However, this is a must-win for the Giants to lock up the NFC East, and Oakland shouldn’t be much of a spoiler.
Straight up: New York Giants
Against the Spread: New York Giants

The Match-up: Cincinnati (+7.5) @ Kansas City
The Skinny: Not much intrigue here other than Larry Johnson looking for his 9th straight 100-yard game. I know the Chiefs are technically still alive for the playoffs, but that’s only if Pittsburgh loses to Detroit (and that’s not going to happen).
Straight up: Kansas City
Against the Spread: Kansas City

The Match-up: Miami (+5.5) @ New England
The Skinny: The Pats still have an outside chance at the #3 seed, which would mean a home game in Foxboro and avoiding the Colts in the second round.
Straight up: New England
Against the Spread: New England

The Match-up: Buffalo (-1.5) @ New York Jets
The Skinny: The Jets are one of the teams with an outside chance at the #1 pick. I had an inclination to take them this week, but then I’ve remembered past hunches about this team and getting burned. So, I’m reluctantly taking the Bills.
Straight up: Buffalo
Against the Spread: Buffalo

The Match-up: Carolina (-4.0) @ Atlanta
The Skinny: The Panthers need a win to clinch a playoff berth, so they’ll pull out all the stops. One problem – they have lost seven straight in Atlanta and are 1-9 all time in the Georgia Dome. Atlanta may not spoil the Panthers’ season, but they’ll give them a game.
Straight up: Carolina
Against the Spread: Atlanta

The Match-up: Detroit (+13.5) @ Pittsburgh
The Skinny: See “Cincinnati (+7.5) @ Kansas City”
Straight up: Pittsburgh
Against the Spread: Pittsburgh

The Match-up: Baltimore (-3.0) @ Cleveland
The Skinny: The Browns look to bounce back from last week’s 41-0 embarrassment at the hands of the Steelers. Baltimore, meanwhile, has players and coaches fighting for jobs next season.
Straight up: Baltimore
Against the Spread: Baltimore

The Match-up: New Orleans (+13.5) @ Tampa Bay
The Skinny: The Bucs control their own destiny in terms of winning the NFC South.
Straight up: Tampa Bay
Against the Spread: Tampa Bay

The Match-up: Seattle (+4.5) @ Green Bay
The Skinny: Shaun Alexander has a chance to break the single-season touchdown record, so he’ll start. Chances are he’ll score early to clinch the record, then join the other Seattle starters on the bench.
Straight up: Green Bay
Against the Spread: Green Bay

The Match-up: Arizona (+6.5) @ Indianapolis
The Skinny: Welcome back, Coach Dungy.
Straight up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Indianapolis

The Match-up: Houston (-1.0) @ San Francisco
The Skinny: If the Texans end up with the #1 pick, guys like Domanick Davis and Johnathan Wells could end up on the trading block (Note to Texans front office – grab some offensive linemen).
Straight up: San Francisco
Against the Spread: San Francisco

The Match-up: Tennessee (+3.5) @ Jacksonville
The Skinny: Jacksonville is the #5 seed, win lose or draw, and they’re 3-1 behind David Garrard, with that one loss at the hands of the mighty Colts. So why all the talk about Byron Leftwich suiting up this week?
Straight up: Jacksonville
Against the Spread: Jacksonville

The Match-up: Chicago (+4.0) @ Minnesota
The Skinny: Normally, I would advise that the Bears sit Rex Grossman. But he’s been out for so long, and developing chemistry with the offense wouldn’t be a bad thing. Plus, if the worst happens and Grossman gets hurt (again), Kyle Orton waits in the wings, and he did a solid job as a starter in Grossman’s absence.
Straight up: Chicago
Against the Spread: Chicago

The Match-up: Washington (-7.5) @ Philadelphia
The Skinny: For the Redskins, it’s simple – win and they’re in. The Eagles would love nothing more than to spoil Washington’s hopes.
Straight up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia

The Match-up: St. Louis (+12.5) @ Dallas
The Skinny: There actually will be a perfect record in the NFL this season…16 times the Dallas Cowboys took the field, and 16 times I’ve picked against them. No playoffs for the Cowgirls, and another retirement for Bill Parcells. Good riddance, Tuna.
Straight up: St. Louis
Against the Spread: St. Louis

The Week 16 Picks

Before we get started, I want to personally express my condolences to Colts head coach Tony Dungy on the death of his son, James, who apparently committed suicide this week at the age of 18. As a father, I couldn’t imagine losing one of my children, especially around the holidays. So whether you celebrate Christmas, Hanukkah, or Kwanzaa, say a prayer for Coach Dungy and his family.

I wish you all a safe and happy holiday season

The Match-up: Tennessee (+5.5) @ Miami
The Skinny: Sounds more like a Peach Bowl than a meaningless Week 16 NFL match-up (and, quite frankly, a more intriguing one).
Straight up: Miami
Against the Spread: Miami

The Match-up: Detroit (+3.0) @ New Orleans
The Skinny: Both teams are just a mess. The Lions are back to Joey Harrington, who actually showed signs of life in relief of Jeff Garcia a week ago. New Orleans started Todd Bouman last week, and he showed up Aaron Brooks…by tossing 4 picks! Brutal.
Straight up: New Orleans
Against the Spread: New Orleans

The Match-up: Atlanta (+3.0) @ Tampa Bay
The Skinny: Ron Mexico faces his nemesis on Saturday, as the Bucs always seem to make Mexico one-dimensional (and not the good dimension, either).
Straight up: Tampa Bay
Against the Spread: Tampa Bay

The Match-up: Buffalo (+14.0) @ Cincinnati
The Skinny: Chad Johnson is at it again. He stated this week that he had a Christmas-themed TD celebration planned that would incorporate a reindeer. Fun stuff.
Straight up: Cincinnati
Against the Spread: Buffalo

The Match-up: New York Giants (+3.0) @ Washington
The Skinny: Loyal readers should know what’s coming here. Eli Manning on the road against a VERY good defense? It’s almost like stealing.
Straight up: Washington
Against the Spread: Washington

The Match-up: Cleveland (+7.0) @ Pittsburgh
The Skinny: Desperation tells me that the Steelers will come to play on Saturday. They’re still alive, and can’t afford a let-down against their bitter rival. Speaking of, I gave you Miami as a potential sleeper for next year, but how about the Browns in that same vain?
Straight up: Pittsburgh
Against the Spread: Pittsburgh

The Match-up: Dallas (+5.0) @ Carolina
The Skinny: Nice effort by the Cowgirls last week. Another loss this week in Carolina should pretty much seal their fate.
Straight up: Carolina
Against the Spread: Carolina

The Match-up: Jacksonville (-6.0) @ Houston
The Skinny: The Texans actually hurt themselves with a win last week, dropping them into a tie with San Francisco for the worst record in the Reggie Bush sweepstakes.
Straight up: Houston
Against the Spread: Houston

The Match-up: San Diego (Pick) @ Kansas City
The Skinny: Good match-up between the top-ranked Chargers run defense and the 100-yards per game streak of pro-bowler Larry Johnson. It may be hard for San Diego to get all the way up for this one (which explains the line a little bit), but I’ll take a chance on them..
Straight up: San Diego
Against the Spread: San Diego

The Match-up: San Francisco (+9.0) @ St. Louis
The Skinny: Did you know that 49ers quarterback Alex Smith, the number one overall pick of a year ago, was a high school teammate of Reggie Bush? They may be together again very, very soon.
Straight up: St. Louis
Against the Spread: St. Louis

The Match-up: Philadelphia (+1.0) @ Arizona
The Skinny: If only you could combine these two offenses and put Boldin and Fitzgerald on the Eagles…
Straight up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia

The Match-up: Indianapolis (+10.0) @ Seattle
The Skinny: Suddenly, this game seems meaningless. True, it could be a Super Bowl preview. However, questions arise. Now that the perfect season has come and gone, how much will the Colts starters play? And, will the team be able to focus with Tony Dungy dealing with the personal tragedy that befell him this week? I almost feel disrespectful making a pick in this game.
Straight up: Seattle
Against the Spread: Seattle

The Match-up: Oakland (+13.0) @ Denver
The Skinny: Even if Raiders RB LaMont Jordan was healthy, I still would have taken Denver.
Straight up: Denver
Against the Spread: Denver

The Match-up: Chicago (-7.0) @ Green Bay
The Skinny: Is this the end for Brett Favre? If so, it’s a shame to see him go out like this. Just in case, congratulations on a hall of fame career, Brett.
Straight up: Chicago
Against the Spread: Chicago

The Match-up: Minnesota (+2.5) @ Baltimore
The Skinny: Okay, as a guy who thought the Ravens were going to be a contender this year, I have to ask - where has this offense been all year?
Straight up: Baltimore
Against the Spread: Baltimore

The Match-up: New England (-5.5) @ New York Jets
The Skinny: It’s the finale for Monday Night Football on ABC, and they’ll focus more on the history of the program as opposed to the actual game. The Patriots are starting to look like, well, the Patriots, and they’re the team no one wants to play in the playoffs. The more things change, the more they stay the same.
Straight up: New England
Against the Spread: New England

And Down the Stretch they Come - The Week 15 Picks

News flash – I’m not black.

Maybe that’s why I can’t understand the comments made by J. Whyatt “Jerry” Mondesire, the head of the Philadelphia chapter of the NAACP, in which he criticized Eagles QB Donovan McNabb for not running the ball more, adding that McNabb’s failing to scramble “not only amounts to a breach of faith but also belittles the real struggles of black athletes who've had to overcome real racial stereotypcasting in addition to downright segregation.”

Um, Jerry, what the hell are you talking about?

Perhaps, in the grand scheme of things, McNabb running less this season had something to do with the bruised sternum, sports hernia, and groin injuries he was playing through. Maybe it’s not about race, but rather it’s about wins and losses. McNabb didn’t run as much last year, but the Eagles were 13-3 and a Super Bowl team. Coincidentally, there were no complaints from the NAACP about him selling out. If the Eagles were 8-5 and in the playoff hunt as opposed to 5-8 and eliminated from playoff contention, would we even know who Jerry Mondesire is?

Look, I don’t know ‘5’ personally, but I can pretty much guarantee you that when he dropped back in the pocket and saw a lane to run through, his thought process did not involve retarding the progress of black athletes across the globe. Think of it this way – did Steve Young set white people back because he was a scrambling quarterback and not the typical pocket passer? Of course not.

In case you were unaware, the last three letters of the acronym “NAACP” stand for “Advancement of Colored People.” I’m not sure how Mondesire’s comments do anything to foster the advancement of black athletes. Don’t get me wrong, he’s as entitled to his opinion as I am to mine, but it would seem to me that using the forum he did might lead someone to believe that his opinion is that of the NAACP and not that of a bitter Eagles fan.

Speaking of which, how about a little slack for the Eagles? This is a team that went to four straight NFC Championship games and a Super Bowl in the last four seasons. They have a down year, and now all of a sudden they need a new coach, a GM, a new quarterback, and new ownership. Come on, people. The reality of the situation is that the Eagles have had a lot to deal with this year (including significant injuries and a clubhouse cancer that, thankfully, was eradicated), and they slipped a little. But they don’t need to blow the whole thing up and start over. There is still a nucleus of talent with this team (McNabb, Brian Westbrook, Jevon Kearse, Jeremiah Trotter, Brian Dawkins, Sheldon Brown, Lito Sheppard, Michael Lewis, David Akers) and there are some young players in place who look like legitimate NFL players (Trent Cole, Reggie Brown, Ryan Moats, Shawn Andrews). Believe me, the Eagles will be back.

Alright, that’s enough soap box for this week. I like that the NFL starts playing on Saturdays now that college football is into the Bowl season. It gives the marginal basketball fans (like myself) something to watch on a Saturday afternoon. It’s one reason why the NFL is so popular. Another reason? Parity. That said, there are a few games that are tough to call this week, as detailed below in the Week 15 picks. Here they are.

The Match-up: Tampa Bay (+4.5) @ New England
The Skinny: If Brady was healthy, I’d probably take the Pats because of Tampa’s history in cold weather. But the Bucs impressed me by going into Carolina and dominating last week against one of the best defenses in the league.
Straight up: New England
Against the Spread: Tampa Bay

The Match-up: Kansas City (+3.0) @ New York Giants
The Skinny: The G-Men got all they could handle from the Eagles practice squad last week, and they won’t sleep on a team like K.C. Eli Manning is a much better QB at home, and since this game is in the swamps of Jersey, I like big blue.
Straight up: New York Giants
Against the Spread: New York Giants

The Match-up: Denver (-8.5) @ Buffalo
The Skinny: If only the Bills had a QB that could take advantage of the injured Broncos secondary…
Straight up: Denver
Against the Spread: Denver

The Match-up: San Francisco (+15.5) @ Jacksonville
The Skinny: Jacksonville’s last three games of the season are against Frisco, Houston, and Tennessee. In other words, there’s no need for Byron Leftwich to hurry back from his broken ankle.
Straight up: Jacksonville
Against the Spread: San Francisco

The Match-up: Arizona (-1.5) @ Houston
The Skinny: Anybody else think the Texans are tanking it to get Reggie Bush? Me too.
Straight up: Houston
Against the Spread: Houston

The Match-up: Seattle (-7.0) @ Tennessee
The Skinny: The Seahawks have had their problems on the road, but shouldn’t on Sunday.
Straight up: Seattle
Against the Spread: Seattle

The Match-up: San Diego (+7.5) @ Indianapolis
The Skinny: The Chargers need this game, and there’s no telling how long Tony Dungy will play his starters. I don’t know if San Diego will win this game, but they’ll play like it’s the post-season.
Straight up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: San Diego

The Match-up: Philadelphia (+3.5) @ St. Louis
The Skinny: I guess Ryan Fitzpatrick is not the next Kurt Warner.
Straight up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia

The Match-up: New York Jets (+8.5) @ Miami
The Skinny: The Dolphins are an early contender for a 2006 sleeper team.
Straight up: Miami
Against the Spread: Miami

The Match-up: Pittsburgh (-3.0) @ Minnesota
The Skinny: The Vikings’ winning streak has to come to an end sometime.
Straight up: Pittsburgh
Against the Spread: Pittsburgh

The Match-up: Carolina (-9.0) @ New Orleans
The Skinny: The Saints shocked the Panthers in the season opener. Don’t think that the Panthers forgot that.
Straight up: Carolina
Against the Spread: Carolina

The Match-up: Cincinnati (-8.0) @ Detroit
The Skinny: Early congratulations to the Bengals for ending their 15-year playoff drought. Here’s hoping they don’t make any more music videos.
Straight up: Cincinnati
Against the Spread: Cincinnati

The Match-up: Cleveland (+3.0) @ Oakland
The Skinny: First coach to get fired in the off-season? My money is on Norv Turner. I wonder if the Browns would have been better suited playing Charlie Frye all season.
Straight up: Oakland
Against the Spread: Oakland

The Match-up: Dallas (+3.0) @ Washington
The Skinny: Since the Eagles have been eliminated from the playoffs, I’ve adopted the “ABC” philosophy – Anybody But the Cowboys.
Straight up: Washington
Against the Spread: Washington

The Match-up: Atlanta (+3.0) @ Chicago
The Skinny: Dome teams in Chicago in December usually don’t fare well.
Straight up: Chicago
Against the Spread: Chicago

The Match-up: Green Bay (+3.5) @ Baltimore
The Skinny: As bad as the Packers are, it’s Monday Night Football and its Brett Favre. I just can’t bring myself to take the Ravens.
Straight up: Green Bay
Against the Spread: Green Bay

The Week 14 Picks

Embarrassing…

Frustrating…

Pathetic…

Unfortunate…

I know what you’re thinking - the Eagles on Monday night against Seattle. Well, yes, but I was actually referring to my Fantasy Football team. Last year, I won the championship. This year, I’m in 10th place in a ten team league. I’ve just been snake-bitten this year, as you’ll see from the following summary:

Ø For starters, I drew 9th in the draft order. My strategy was going to be to take the best RB on the board at 9, then take Donovan McNabb at 12 (except that ‘5’ went 3rd overall, hence a monkey wrench was thrown into the system).

Ø I traded Domanick Davis for Tiki Barber, only to then package Barber in a deal for Rudi Johnson, who I then traded with Reggie Wayne for Curtis Martin, Donte' Stallworth, and Duce Staley. I recently dealt Martin for convicted felon Jamal Lewis.

Ø I acquired Ahman Green for Corey Dillon. Green played about a half of football for me before rupturing a thigh tendon and being shelved for the season.

Ø I picked up Eric Moulds from Buffalo, who was just suspended by the team after failing to catch a pass last week for the first time in 121 games.

Ø I decided against trading Byron Leftwich for Drew Brees a week before Leftwich broke his ankle.

Ø Had I not made any trades, I could have fielded a team last week of Jake Plummer (11.84 points), Ben Roethlisberger (21.64), Corey Dillon (14.40), Thomas Jones (9.30), Reggie Wayne (11.00), T.J. Houshmandzadeh (21.50), Lee Evans (29.70), Randy McMichael (4.10), John Kasay (6.00), and the Jacksonville defense (6.00) for a grand total of 135.48 points. Instead, my team featuring guys like Jeff Garcia, Curtis Martin, Moulds, and Stallworth netted me a whopping 59.88 points.

Anyway, now that I have totally given up on my Fantasy team for the year, I can focus on my NFL Picks league, which I’m still winning (barely). Here are the Week 14 picks.

The Match-up: New England (-3.5) @ Buffalo
The Skinny: The Patriots can clinch the AFC East with a win and a Miami loss, both of which should happen.
Straight up: New England
Against the Spread: New England

The Match-up: Chicago (+6.0) @ Pittsburgh
The Skinny: Both defenses are virtually impenetrable, especially to offenses guided by Kyle Orton and (potentially) Tommy Maddox. This has the feel of a 13-10 game, doesn’t it?
Straight up: Pittsburgh
Against the Spread: Chicago

The Match-up: Cleveland (+12.5) @ Cincinnati
The Skinny: Outspoken Cincinnati WR Chad Johnson said the Bengals could score 40 this week. You know what? I believe him.
Straight up: Cincinnati
Against the Spread: Cincinnati

The Match-up: Tampa Bay (+5.5) @ Carolina
The Skinny: The NFC South may be the best division in football, and its two top dogs face off this week in Charlotte. This could be the game of the week.
Straight up: Carolina
Against the Spread: Carolina

The Match-up: Indianapolis (-8.0) @ Jacksonville
The Skinny: The Colts have a few high hurdles to get over en route to 16-0, the first of which is in Jacksonville this week.
Straight up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Jacksonville

The Match-up: Houston (+7.0) @ Tennessee
The Skinny: After another come-from-ahead loss last week, it’s only a matter of time until the Texans break through and actually finish a game.
Straight up: Houston
Against the Spread: Houston

The Match-up: St. Louis (+7.0) @ Minnesota
The Skinny: The resurgent Vikings could close to within a game of division-leading Chicago with a win over the Rams and a Bears loss in Pittsburgh.
Straight up: Minnesota
Against the Spread: Minnesota

The Match-up: Oakland (-3.0) @ New York Jets
The Skinny: LaMont Jordan returns to the Meadowlands, and will have to be the focal point of Oakland’s offense (with Kerry Collins benched in favor of Marques Tuiasosopo).
Straight up: Oakland
Against the Spread: Oakland

The Match-up: San Francisco (+16.0) @ Seattle
The Skinny: Shaun Alexander for NFL MVP? He’s as good a choice as anybody.
Straight up: Seattle
Against the Spread: Seattle

The Match-up: New York Giants (-9.0) @ Philadelphia
The Skinny: When is a QB Controversy not a QB Controversy? When the options are Mike McMahon and Koy Detmer.
Straight up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia

The Match-up: Washington (-4.0) @ Arizona
The Skinny: The Redskins got back on the winning track last week in St. Louis. Another road test awaits Washington this week in Arizona.
Straight up: Washington
Against the Spread: Washington

The Match-up: Miami (+13.5) @ San Diego
The Skinny: The Chargers are legit, and may be the second best team in the AFC (sorry, Bengals fans).
Straight up: San Diego
Against the Spread: Miami

The Match-up: Kansas City (+3.0) @ Dallas
The Skinny: Let me think about it…I’ll take K.C.
Straight up: Kansas City
Against the Spread: Kansas City

The Match-up: Baltimore (+14.0) @ Denver
The Skinny: After another loss in their house of horrors, Arrowhead Stadium, the Broncos return to the friendly confines of Mile High to take on the depleted Ravens.
Straight up: Denver
Against the Spread: Denver

The Match-up: Detroit (+6.0) @ Green Bay
The Skinny: It’s an epic running back battle between Artose Pinner and Samkon Gado. Save the uniforms in case Canton comes calling some day.
Straight up: Green Bay
Against the Spread: Green Bay

The Match-up: New Orleans (+10.5) @ Atlanta
The Skinny: I just traded for Aaron Brooks and Joe Horn, so look for three picks from Brooks, a season-ending injury to Horn, and a big Falcons victory.
Straight up: Atlanta
Against the Spread: Atlanta

The Week 13 Picks

As Charles Barkley or Dennis Rodman would tell you, rebounding is the key to success. That concept was employed last week, as The Kid bounced back from a dismal 7-9 and 2-14 Week 11 by nailing 14 winners in Week 12 and putting up a 12-3-1 record against the spread. Think Armando Cuko, but on a much smaller scale.

One quick note before we move onto the picks. Those of you who know me had to know I would hit on the Michael Irvin story that broke this week. Irvin, one of my all-time “favorites,” was arrested for an outstanding speeding ticket in Plano, TX and a search of his vehicle turned up drug paraphernalia (which, of course, he claimed was not his). This, of course, was not Irvin’s first run in with the law. Some years back, he pleaded no contest to drug charges when he was found in a hotel room with hookers and dinner plates full of cocaine. Since then, Irvin has stayed relatively clean (loosely translated, he hasn’t been caught doing anything wrong) and appeared to have turned his life around. I guess not. The lesson? A leopard doesn’t change its spots. Maybe I shouldn’t take such pleasure in a guy being busted for drugs, but when that guy is Michael Irvin, somehow I find it justifiable. Maybe that’s just me. But then, I’m the guy who started the standing ovation when Irvin broke his neck on the Veterans Stadium turf, so I guess we’ve all got issues.

Anyway, here are the Week 13 picks.

The Match-up: Tampa Bay (-3.5) @ New Orleans
The Skinny: The Saints always seem to give the Bucs fits, but that’s due in large part to Deuce McAllister, who is on the shelf. Tampa needs this one to keep their playoff hopes alive.
Straight up: Tampa Bay
Against the Spread: Tampa Bay

The Match-up: Dallas (+3.0) @ New York Giants
The Skinny: The winner takes control of the NFC East – for now.
Straight up: New York Giants
Against the Spread: New York Giants

The Match-up: Green Bay (+7.0) @ Chicago
The Skinny: This season can’t end fast enough for the Packers.
Straight up: Chicago
Against the Spread: Chicago

The Match-up: Cincinnati (+3.5) @ Pittsburgh
The Skinny: Tough one to call, because Big Ben is nicked up (again) and will give it a try with a bruised thumb. If he struggles, so will the Steelers. But I’ll take a shot on them.
Straight up: Pittsburgh
Against the Spread: Pittsburgh

The Match-up: Jacksonville (-3.0) @ Cleveland
The Skinny: David Garrard is in at QB for the Jags, which should not hurt Jacksonville’s playoff run, at least not this week against the Browns.
Straight up: Jacksonville
Against the Spread: Jacksonville

The Match-up: Minnesota (-3.0) @ Detroit
The Skinny: Minnesota has been on a pretty good run lately, and Detroit is in turmoil after Steve Mariucci got axed this week. So why do I like the Lions in an upset?
Straight up: Detroit
Against the Spread: Detroit

The Match-up: Tennessee (+16.0) @ Indianapolis
The Skinny: When you’re 11-0 and chasing history, every week is a challenge, only at various degrees. Monday night against the Steelers was a tough one. This week against Tennessee? Not so much.
Straight up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Indianapolis

The Match-up: Atlanta (+3.0) @ Carolina
The Skinny: Interesting stat of the week #1 – Ron Mexico is 5-0 lifetime against the Carolina Panthers. Good enough for me.
Straight up: Atlanta
Against the Spread: Atlanta

The Match-up: Houston (+8.0) @ Baltimore
The Skinny: Before blowing a 21 point lead in the second half last week, the Texans looked pretty good. If they play like that for 60 minutes, they’ll beat Baltimore. They should, at the very least, give them a game.
Straight up: Baltimore
Against the Spread: Houston

The Match-up: Buffalo (+4.0) @ Miami
The Skinny: Very impressed by the Dolphins last week, hanging 33 on the Raiders in a big road win. Will the Fish keep it going against the Bills?
Straight up: Miami
Against the Spread: Miami

The Match-up: Arizona (-3.0) @ San Francisco
The Skinny: The QB carousel in San Fran is back to rookie Alex Smith. Right, because that worked well the first time around.
Straight up: Arizona
Against the Spread: Arizona

The Match-up: Washington (-3.0) @ St. Louis
The Skinny: Remember when the Redskins were 5-2 and talking about the playoffs? Now they’re 5-6 and fighting to stay out of the NFC East cellar. That’s why they say “NFL” stands for “Not For Long.”
Straight up: St. Louis
Against the Spread: St. Louis

The Match-up: New York Jets (+10.0) @ New England
The Skinny: You know, I don’t think the Jets are a very good football team. It only took me twelve weeks to figure that out.
Straight up: New England
Against the Spread: New England

The Match-up: Denver (-1.0) @ Kansas City
The Skinny: Interesting stat of the week #2 – Denver is 1-3 in their last 4 games at Arrowhead, and the Broncos are 1-13 all time in 14 December games in Kansas City. Again, good enough for me.
Straight up: Kansas City
Against the Spread: Kansas City

The Match-up: Oakland (+11.5) @ San Diego
The Skinny: LaDanian Tomlinson always torches Oakland.
Straight up: San Diego
Against the Spread: San Diego

The Match-up: Seattle (-4.0) @ Philadelphia
The Skinny: High emotions in Philly on Monday as the Eagles pay tribute to the late, great Reggie White. How can you bet against the Eagles when they’ve got #92 in their corner?
Straight up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia

Turkey Day Leftovers - The Rest of the Week 12 Picks

What a great Thanksgiving. Not only did I feast on an outstanding dinner, but the dessert was extra sweet since those bastards from Dallas lost (I'm thankful for Ron Dayne and Jason Elam). And, by winning both games yesterday, I have already matched last week's win total of 2. Sad, I know, but there's only one way to go once you've hit rock bottom. One of the best parts about Thanksgiving is eating a cold turkey sandwich made from the leftovers from the night before. Along the same lines, these are the games left on the Week 12 slate.

The Match-up: St. Louis (-4.0) @ Houston
The Skinny: Houston has played statistically the toughest schedule in the league this year. Yeah, that's what their problem is.
Straight up: St. Louis
Against the Spread: St. Louis

The Match-up: New England (+3.0) @ Kansas City
The Skinny: The Pats may have to sign me to play corner if they lose one more player.
Straight up: Kansas City
Against the Spread: Kansas City

The Match-up: Cleveland (+4.5) @ Minnesota
The Skinny: Nice rally by the Vikings. Probably too little too late with the Bears surging as they are, but still they've showed a lot of character (yes, this is the same team that took a sex cruise on their bye week, so maybe character isn't the right word).
Straight up: Minnesota
Against the Spread: Minnesota

The Match-up: Carolina (-4.0) @ Buffalo
The Skinny: Warm-weathered Carolina favored in Buffalo tells me a lot.
Straight up: Carolina
Against the Spread: Carolina

The Match-up: Chicago (+3.0) @ Tampa Bay
The Skinny: Sure, I'll take the Bears defense plus some points against young Chris Simms.
Straight up: Chicago
Against the Spread: Chicago

The Match-up: Baltimore (+9.0) @ Cincinnati
The Skinny: Memo to Chad Johnson - look at what happened with T.O. and re-think that hold out you're planning during the off-season.
Straight up: Cincinnati
Against the Spread: Cincinnati

The Match-up: San Diego (-3.0) @ Washington
The Skinny: Both teams are in playoff contention, and a win Sunday would go a long way.
Straight up: San Diego
aging the Spread: San Diego

The Match-up: San Francisco (+7.5) @ Tennessee
The Skinny: It's all about draft positioning between these two fallen powers.
Straight up: Tennessee
Against the Spread: San Francisco

The Match-up: Miami (+7.0) @ Oakland
The Skinny: That's right, I'm wagering on Sage Rosenfels on the road in November. As the saying goes, do as I say, not as I do.
Straight up: Oakland
Against the Spread: Miami

The Match-up: Jacksonville (-3.0) @ Arizona
The Skinny: Nice showing by Kurt Warner last week, but Jacksonville's defense will provide a litmus test as to whether or not Warner is officially back.
Straight up: Jacksonville
Against the Spread: Jacksonville

The Match-up: Green Bay (+4.5) @ Philadelphia
The Skinny: You heard it here first - the Eagles will win out, finish 10-6 and sneak into the playoffs.
Straight up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia

The Match-up: New York Giants (+4.5) @ Seattle
The Skinny: Did you know that the Seahawks have the best record in the NFC? The Seahawks? Unbelievable.
Straight up: Seattle
Against the Spread: Seattle

The Match-up: New Orleans (-1.5) @ New York Jets
The Skinny: At least the Jets play a little defense.
Straight up: New York Jets
Against the Spread: New York Jets

The Match-up: Pittsburgh (+7.5) @ Indianapolis
The Skinny: I wanted to take Pittsburgh, I really did. But in Indy, I just couldn't pull the trigger.
Straight up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Indianapolis

The Thanksgiving Day Deuce

Thanksgiving is hands down my favorite holiday of the year. Why? Because I get to sit around, watch football, eat until I feel the need to undo the button on my pants, and fall asleep in the recliner. My wife would tell you that's no different from how I spend every weekend. Touche.

Anyway, my Thanksgiving ritual is basically as follows:

1) Wake up and eat an enormous breakfast of eggs, bacon, and cinnamon buns.
2) Camp out in front of the TV to watch part of the Thanksgiving Day Parade (only because it is hosted by charter "List of Five" member Kelly Ripa.
3) Watch football (root for whomever is playing against Dallas).
4) Gorge myself on turkey, mashed potatoes, stuffing, corn, bread, and gravy.
5) Watch more football as the Triptophan kicks in and gently nod off.
6) Wake up just in time for dessert.

Time to add a new feature to the ritual - share with you, my loyal readers, the Turkey Day picks (the remaining games for the weekend will follow in a later post). Enjoy, and Happy Thanksgiving to you and yours.

The Match-up: Atlanta (-3.0) @ Detroit
The Skinny: I don't think either team should be making plans to return to Ford Field in February, but I do like Ron Mexico to shine on a national stage, a la Randy Moss against the Cowgirls a few years back.
Straight up: Atlanta
Against the Spread: Atlanta

The Match-up: Denver (-2.0) @ Dallas
The Skinny: The Broncos are playing some good football right now. And what would Thanksgiving be if I didn't go against the Cowboys?
Straight up: Denver
Against the Spread: Denver

The Week 11 Picks

It's a true road game this weekend, as the picks are coming to you live from the former home front in the Philly 'burbs. I'm also working on a dial up connection, so the picks will be brief in nature (so as not to get cut off by an incoming call). I won't even bombard you with any T.O. commentary - at least not for another week or so.

FYI - I will keep track of how many times I am disconnected through the proceedings, starting with the time it just happened [one].

The Match-up: Oakland (+6.0) @ Washington
The Skinny: The Skins are the latest team to fall victim of a coach growing stones at the end of the game when Jon Gruden went for two and the win at the gun last week. Oakland fell victim to Dick Vermeil's last-second touchdown call the week before. The two meet this week, and somebody will leave FedEx Field pissed off again.
Straight up: Washington
Against the Spread: Washington

The Match-up: Miami (+2.5) @ Cleveland
The Skinny: Don't think I've picked the Browns yet this year, and I see no reason to start now. Straight up: Miami
Against the Spread: Miami

The Match-up: Pittsburgh (off) @ Baltimore
The Skinny: Tommy Maddox vs. Kyle Boller isn't exactly good theatre.
Straight up: Pittsburgh
Against the Spread: Pittsburgh

The Match-up: Detroit (+8.0) @ Dallas
The Skinny: Dallas sucks, have I mentioned that before? Just making sure I cover all my bases.
Straight up: Detroit
Against the Spread: Detroit

The Match-up: Jacksonville (-4.0) @ Tennessee
The Skinny: Other than Indianapolis at home, the Jags have a virtual cake walk to the post-season.
Straight up: Jacksonville
Against the Spread: Jacksonville

[two]

The Match-up: Arizona (+9.5) @ St. Louis
The Skinny: The Rams are starting to regain their health and round back into form.
Straight up: St. Louis
Against the Spread: St. Louis

The Match-up: New Orleans (+9.5) @ New England
The Skinny: Notice no one is talking about the Pats three-peating any more.
Straight up: New England
Against the Spread: New England

The Match-up: Philadelphia (+7.0) @ New York Giants
The Skinny: Mike McMahon to Billy McMullen for the game-winning touchdown in the fourth quarter. Hey, it could happen.
Straight up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia

The Match-up: Tampa Bay (+6.0) @ Atlanta
The Skinny: Chris Simms may have come of age last week against Washington. Down by seven twice late, he rallied the troops to the aforementioned last-second two point conversion victory. But in Atlanta is a tough go, even though the Bucs have given Ron Mexico fits in the past.
Straight up: Atlanta
Against the Spread: Atlanta

The Match-up: Carolina (-3.0) @ Chicago
The Skinny: At 7-2, the best team in the NFC right now resides in Charlotte.
Straight up: Carolina
Against the Spread: Carolina

[three]

The Match-up: Seattle (-12.5) @ San Francisco
The Skinny: Shaun Alexander is a stud - five straight years of 15+ touchdowns? Unheard of.
Straight up: Seattle
Against the Spread: Seattle

The Match-up: New York Jets (+13.0) @ Denver
The Skinny: 13 points is just too many to give the Jets, even on the road.
Straight up: Denver
Against the Spread: New York Jets

The Match-up: Buffalo (+11.0) @ San Diego
The Skinny: Bills fans should not get too excited about the showing of J.P. Losman last week. I mean, it's not like he's Jim Kelly or anything.
Straight up: San Diego
Against the Spread: San Diego

[four - this is getting ridiculous]

The Match-up: Indianapolis (-6.0) @ Cincinatti
The Skinny: In the game of the week, I like the Colts to get to 10-0, but not without a fight from the Bengals.
Straight up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Cincinnati

[five - what the chicken?]

The Match-up: Kansas City (-7.0) @ Houston
The Skinny: The Chiefs should not miss a beat without Priest Holmes, as long as Larry Johnson keeps running the way he has.
Straight up: Kansas City
Against the Spread: Kansas City

The Match-up: Minnesota (+4.5) @ Green Bay
The Skinny: Brett Favre, Lambeau Field, Monday night. Need I say more?
Straight up: Green Bay
Against the Spread: Green Bay

The Week 10 Picks

I’m a little disappointed about the whole Terrell Owens situation. My loyal readers (both of you) know I’ve been a supporter of Owens as recently as two weeks ago in this space, but this entire ordeal has really showed me the guy’s true colors. The sad thing is, this all started last December when Owens broke his leg and Donovan McNabb said in a press conference that he still thought the Eagles could win without him. T.O. took that as a personal slight, and the relationship deteriorated from there.

A couple of points that should be made:

a) What exactly was Owens expecting McNabb to say? “T.O. is hurt, so we might as well shut it down for the season.”
b) Owens claims he came back to play in the Super Bowl for the team, but its apparent that he did it for himself, as evidenced by the fact that he used that as a negotiating ploy to try and get more money.
c) T.O. claims he’s not being selfish, but everything he pulled was done with the intent of milking more money out of the Eagles. He personifies selfishness.

All of these actions virtually guarantee that Owens will never get the big money he so covets, from the Eagles or any other team. Not only is he selfish, he’s also ignorant, misguided, and not very bright. Oh, and his agent is a weasel (next question, next question, next question…what a spineless coward). Owens is the ultimate ‘Me’ player in the ultimate team sport.

But the guy can ball.

In his year and a half as an Eagle, Owens averaged almost 100 yards and a touchdown per game. So while the popular line is that the Eagles will be better off without him, I guess I’m torn. In the clubhouse, yes, they’re probably better off. But on the field, it will be tough to account for an extra seven points per game. Especially when a 4-4 record is bringing up the rear in the suddenly-stacked NFC East, and there are teams like Carolina, Atlanta, Tampa Bay and Chicago that the Eagles would have to leap frog to make the playoffs.

It could be a long, cold winter in Philly.

The Match-up: Kansas City (+2.5) @ Buffalo
The Skinny: Props to Kansas City head coach Dick Vermeil for his decision to go for the touchdown from the one yard line while down three with five seconds to go and no timeouts in last week’s game against Oakland. Don’t get me wrong, I’m pissed because I had KC -4.5 and was hoping for OT. The football Gods will get me back this week.
Straight up: Buffalo
Against the Spread: Buffalo

The Match-up: San Francisco (+13.0) @ Chicago
The Skinny: Even if Thomas Jones sits out with bruised ribs, I like the Bears to win. But Frisco plays with some tenacity, and I like that.
Straight up: Chicago
Against the Spread: San Francisco

The Match-up: Baltimore (+6.5) @ Jacksonville
The Skinny: Kyle Boller is back under center for the Ravens, but unless he had a transplant and became Johnny Unitas, it won’t make a difference in Jacksonville.
Straight up: Jacksonville
Against the Spread: Jacksonville

The Match-up: Arizona (+4.0) @ Detroit
The Skinny: Two quarterback controversies, four marginal quarterbacks, one crappy game.
Straight up: Detroit
Against the Spread: Detroit

The Match-up: Houston (+18.0) @ Indianapolis
The Skinny: Classic trap game for the NFL’s only remaining unbeaten team. The Colts finally got that gorilla off their back on Monday, and I could see them sleepwalking through the first half on Sunday. That could keep Houston in cover range.
Straight up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Houston

The Match-up: New England (-3.0) @ Miami
The Skinny: While last year’s NFC champion Eagles are 4-4 and struggling to make the playoffs, the equally 4-4 Patriots are still in first place in their division. So much for the AFC being the dominant conference.
Straight up: New England
Against the Spread: New England

The Match-up: Minnesota (+9.5) @ New York Giants
The Skinny: Anybody know the pre-season odds on the Giants to win the NFC? Not nearly as good as Minnesota’s, I’m sure. A gimpy quarterback, a drugged-up running back, and a sex cruise can do that to a team.
Straight up: New York Giants
Against the Spread: New York Giants

The Match-up: New York Jets (+9.0) @ Carolina
The Skinny: During their recent five-game winning streak, the Panthers have resembled the contender everyone predicted them to be. And, their cheerleaders know how to party.
Straight up: Carolina
Against the Spread: New York Jets

The Match-up: Denver (-3.0) @ Oakland
The Skinny: Still waiting for Jake Plummer to turn into, well, Jake Plummer. I mean, everybody else on my fantasy team has thrown it in the tank, why not “The Snake?”
Straight up: Denver
Against the Spread: Denver

The Match-up: St. Louis (+7.0) @ Seattle
The Skinny: This one’s for the division, so you can bet it will be close. Isaac Bruce and Torry Holt are both expected back for the Rams, thus I feel they’re going to be in the ball game. But Shaun Alexander and the ‘Hawks are money at home.
Straight up: Seattle
Against the Spread: St. Louis

The Match-up: Green Bay (+9.0) @ Atlanta
The Skinny: Anybody remember which team drafted Brett Favre out of Southern Miss in 1991? The answer is my pick in this game.
Straight up: Atlanta
Against the Spread: Atlanta

The Match-up: Washington (-1.5) @ Tampa Bay
The Skinny: If anyone but Mark Brunell wins the NFL’s comeback player of the year award, I’m calling for a formal investigation.
Straight up: Washington
Against the Spread: Washington

The Match-up: Cleveland (+8.0) @ Pittsburgh
The Skinny: Ben Roethlisberger is still on the shelf for the Steelers, but Willie Parker will play. The combination of Parker and Duce Staley should be enough to get it done at home for the ‘burgh.
Straight up: Pittsburgh
Against the Spread: Pittsburgh

The Match-up: Dallas (+3.0) @ Philadelphia
The Skinny: Next question.
Straight up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia

Making the Turn - The Week 9 Picks

It’s that time of the year. This week marks the halfway point of the season, and there’s no time like the present to re-visit some of my pre-season predictions and see how they’re looking now. To recap:

Division Winner Then Now
AFC East New England New England
AFC North Baltimore (oops) Pittsburgh
AFC South Indianapolis Indianapolis
AFC West San Diego Denver
Wild Cards Buffalo, Pittsburgh Jacksonville, San Diego

NFC East Philadelphia Philadelphia
NFC North Minnesota (my bad) Chicago
NFC South Carolina Carolina
NFC West St. Louis St. Louis
Wild Cards Atlanta, Dallas Atlanta, New York Giants

Super Bowl Philadelphia over Indianapolis (I’ll stand by that)

Other than the aforementioned, my biggest pre-season busts were my offensive rookie of the year (Did I say J.J. Arrington? I meant Heath Miller. No, seriously, I did.) and my sleeper team (which I almost nailed with the Bears before I got cold feet and switched to Buffalo). The lesson here? Trust your instincts.

As for the individual scorecard, records of 75-41 (.647) straight up and 59-54-3 (.522) against the spread are comparable to last year’s marks. But we strive for constant improvement around here, so its time to buckle down.

Here’s to a strong second half!

The Match-up: Cincinnati (-3.0) @ Baltimore
The Skinny: I figured one of these teams would be in the hunt in the AFC and the other would be a middle-of-the-road club. So I guess I was right…and wrong.
Straight up: Cincinnati
Against the Spread: Cincinnati

The Match-up: Atlanta (-2.5) @ Miami
The Skinny: Miami is one of those teams that gives me fits. Just when I think I’ve got them figured out, they burn me.
Straight up: Atlanta
Against the Spread: Atlanta

The Match-up: Detroit (0.0) @ Minnesota
The Skinny: Now that Daunte Culpepper’s season is over, the Vikings season is about to go down like a sinking ship, no pun intended. Alright, maybe it was intended.
Straight up: Detroit
Against the Spread: Detroit

The Match-up: San Diego (-6.5) @ New York Jets
The Skinny: The Jets tend to play pretty well at home, but the Chargers may be the best 4-4 team in the history of the league.
Straight up: San Diego
Against the Spread: New York Jets

The Match-up: Carolina (-1.5) @ Tampa Bay
The Skinny: The battle for first place in the NFC South takes place when the Panthers visit the Bucs, with Tampa listed as the underdog. Call it the “Chris Simms Factor.”
Straight up: Carolina
Against the Spread: Carolina

The Match-up: Tennessee (+3.0) @ Cleveland
The Skinny: Earlier I mentioned something about trusting your instincts. Well, for some reason I have a feeling the Titans will pull a mild upset in the dog pound.
Straight up: Tennessee
Against the Spread: Tennessee

The Match-up: Houston (+13.5) @ Jacksonville
The Skinny: Jacksonville doesn’t score enough to justify the high spread. It is almost time for the Texans to start thinking about whether they will take Matt Leinart or Reggie Bush with the #1 pick next April.
Straight up: Jacksonville
Against the Spread: Houston

The Match-up: Oakland (+4.5) @ Kansas City
The Skinny: KC owns Oakland at Arrowhead.
Straight up: Kansas City
Against the Spread: Kansas City

The Match-up: Chicago (-3.0) @ New Orleans
The Skinny: Last week’s OT thriller just about clinched the NFC North for the 4-3 Bears. I wish I was kidding, but I’m not.
Straight up: Chicago
Against the Spread: Chicago

The Match-up: Seattle (-4.0) @ Arizona
The Skinny: Seattle is typically not a good road team. Arizona is just not a good team.
Straight up: Seattle
Against the Spread: Seattle

The Match-up: New York Giants (-11.0) @ San Francisco
The Skinny: Each week, the Giants are looking more and more like a legitimate contender in the NFC. As for San Francisco, Cody Pickett will start at QB this week. What, were Steve Bono and Jim Druckenmiller unavailable?
Straight up: New York Giants
Against the Spread: New York Giants

The Match-up: Pittsburgh (-3.5) @ Green Bay
The Skinny: How bad are the Packers? Not only are they an underdog at Lambeau (which happens roughly once every 5 years), but they’re an underdog against a team led by Charlie Batch.
Straight up: Pittsburgh
Against the Spread: Pittsburgh

The Match-up: Philadelphia (+3.0) @ Washington
The Skinny: The next three weeks will determine a lot about the hierarchy in the NFC East – Philly visits Washington, hosts Dallas (they suck, by the way), and travels to The Meadowlands to take on the Giants. If the birds are going to win the division, they’ll need to take at least two of the next three, perhaps without T.O. Difficult, but not impossible.
Straight up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia

The Match-up: Indianapolis (-3.0) @ New England
The Skinny: Do the Colts FINALLY have New England’s number? They’ve been in this spot before (i.e., favored in Foxboro) and flopped. Will this one be any different? In a word, yes.
Straight up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Indianapolis

The Week 8 Picks

I’ve got to get something off my chest.

I was watching last week’s Eagles-Chargers game on CBS, a broadcast featuring the color commentary of Dan Dierdorf. After scoring a touchdown, Eagles WR Terrell Owens caught a touchdown, draped a towel over his arm, held the football up like a cocktail waitress carrying a tray of drinks and paraded around the end zone. By all accounts, it was not the best TD celebration of his career. So after San Diego’s Keenan McCardell caught a touchdown, he did the exact same thing, in essence mocking T.O. Dierdorf said that Owens got what was coming to him, or something like that.

Which got me thinking…

Remember last year when the Eagles hosted the Ravens on Halloween? T.O. scored a touchdown and did Ray Lewis’ dance, and all the announcers could talk about was how Owens was mocking Lewis, disrespecting him as a man. If memory serves me correctly, CBS’ color commentator for that game was…Dan Dierdorf!

So, what is the difference between what T.O. did a year ago and what McCardell did last week?

For that matter, other national media members talked about Owens mocking Lewis, but then didn’t say a thing the following week when Pittsburgh’s Hines Ward did T.O.’s wing flap (not once, but twice) after scoring touchdowns against the Eagles, nor did anyone think it was disrespectful when multiple members of the Patriots (specifically Mike Vrabel and Rodney Harrison) did the same in the Super Bowl.

The message? Guys like T.O. get a bad rap no matter what they do. Makes it understandable when Owens does some of the things he does. The Media will not change their perception of Owens, so he’s basically giving them a collective middle finger.

And I don’t have a problem with that.

I do have a problem with my 4-9-1 record in Week 7 (overall 53-46-3), and will attempt to correct that this week. Straight up, we’re putting up numbers (9-5 last week, 67-35 overall), and the beat goes on.

The Match-up: Washington (+2.5) @ New York Giants
The Skinny: Nice last-second win for the Giants over Denver a week ago. The rival Washington Redskins provide the first NFC East test for the Giants.
Straight up: New York Giants
Against the Spread: New York Giants

The Match-up: Green Bay (+9.0) @ Cincinnati
The Skinny: Talk about going from bad to worse. The Packers are 1-5, and now Ahman Green is out for the season with a ruptured thigh tendon. Two words, Packers fans – Reggie Bush.
Straight up: Cincinnati
Against the Spread: Cincinnati

The Match-up: Arizona (+9.0) @ Dallas
The Skinny: Josh McCown and Larry Fitzgerald pull off the upset of the year.
Straight up: Arizona
Against the Spread: Arizona

The Match-up: Minnesota (+7.5) @ Carolina
The Skinny: As long as Jake Delhomme is fully recovered from the Lindros he sustained two weeks ago, I love the Panthers.
Straight up: Carolina
Against the Spread: Carolina

The Match-up: Cleveland (+2.0) @ Houston
The Skinny: The Texans are favored? Could they finally score their elusive first win of the season?
Straight up: Houston
Against the Spread: Houston

The Match-up: Chicago (+3.0) @ Detroit
The Skinny: The winner between these two 3-3 clubs will finish 7-9, win the NFC North and make the playoffs while two teams in the NFC East will be over .500 and on the outside looking in. Even the San Diego Padres think that’s outrageous.
Straight up: Detroit
Against the Spread: Detroit

The Match-up: Oakland (-1.0) @ Tennessee
The Skinny: Randy Moss played last week and scored a touchdown. Not bad for a guy that was doubtful with bruised ribs, eh?
Straight up: Oakland
Against the Spread: Oakland

The Match-up: Jacksonville (-3.0) @ St. Louis
The Skinny: I know he won last week, but I’m still not betting on Jamie Martin. Between the Jaguars stout defense and the depleted Rams secondary, I’ll take the Jags.
Straight up: Jacksonville
Against the Spread: Jacksonville

The Match-up: Kansas City (+6.0) @ San Diego
The Skinny: How quickly can the Chargers rebound from last week’s heartbreaker? I’d say by the 4th quarter. I can see San Diego coming from behind to win a close game late.
Straight up: San Diego
Against the Spread: Kansas City

The Match-up: Miami (+2.5) @ New Orleans
The Skinny: It’s about time for some breaks to go in favor of the Saints. A couple of weeks ago, they were flagged for holding on a missed field goal, giving Atlanta another shot (which they, of course, made). Then there was last week’s fumble that wasn’t but was returned for a touchdown. The breaks always seem to even themselves out.
Straight up: New Orleans
Against the Spread: New Orleans

The Match-up: Tampa Bay (-11.0) @ San Francisco
The Skinny: I’m probably the only guy in the business that changed his pick when he saw Ken Dorsey was going to start for the Niners on Sunday. Dorsey may be able to keep San Francisco close.
Straight up: Tampa Bay
Against the Spread: San Francisco

The Match-up: Philadelphia (+3.5) @ Denver
The Skinny: The Eagles defense will need to replicate their run-stopping effort against the Broncos this week and put the game in the hands of Jake Plummer, who eventually will remember that he is Jake Plummer and start chucking interceptions again.
Straight up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia

The Match-up: Buffalo (+9.0) @ New England
The Skinny: I guess you really shouldn’t feel sorry for the two-time defending World Champions, but the Patriots have lost their air of invincibility. Not saying they’ll lose to Buffalo, especially at home, but the Bills could give them a scare.
Straight up: New England
Against the Spread: Buffalo

The Match-up: Baltimore (+10.0) @ Pittsburgh
The Skinny: Speaking of underachieving, I give you the Baltimore Ravens. How do you beat that defense? Run right at them. What is the Steelers’ offensive strength? Running the football. Uh-oh.
Straight up: Pittsburgh
Against the Spread: Pittsburgh

The Week 7 Picks

“Clutch.”

To some, it’s a car part. To the sports fan, it’s a word used to describe a play that occurs at a key time in the game, one that often changes momentum and has a direct impact on the final score. “Clutch” can also describe the player who makes such a play. On Saturday, October 15th, 2005, the term “clutch” was personified by a freshman kicker at the University of Massachusetts named Armando Cuko.

In Saturday’s game against James Madison (ranked fourth nationally in Division I-AA), Cuko kicked a 41 yard field goal with eight seconds to go lifting the Minutemen to a 10-7 win on homecoming weekend. Now, making that kick for a freshman is pressure enough. What makes Cuko’s kick so special is that the game was being played in a virtual monsoon, on a sloppy field where the mud was ankle deep in spots. Most kickers wouldn’t be able to get their footing, let alone drill the kick the way Cuko did.

Hell, even Kirk Gibson thinks Armando Cuko is clutch.

Speaking of clutch, this guy scored his best week of the season, posting 11-3 marks both straight up and against the spread. Now, I’m not saying I’m clutch like Armando Cuko (because quite frankly no one is), but I am superstitious. That said, this week’s picks will be brief in nature as last week’s were, in hopes of replicating the results.

But before I share the picks, big props to the boys who made last weekend’s road trip such a blast:

W “Laying on the Hood of the Trans Am” Jackson

The Archbishop Desmond “Dez” Jackson (Go home and go to sleep, I ain’t tryin’ to holla at you, I’m tryin’ to holla at some bitches)

My brother, Otis “I peed in the alley” Miller

And yours truly, Jake “Sideline boy at Tiki Bob’s” Miller

And to the Penn State fan from the hood, take your head out of the oven (at least long enough to read the picks). Acknowledgement is the first step.

If you have to ask, you’re probably better off not knowing…

The Match-up: Kansas City (+1.5) @ Miami
The Skinny: This game was moved to Friday due to the impending threat of Hurricane Wilma. The Dolphins may wish the game was cancelled altogether.
Straight up: Kansas City
Against the Spread: Kansas City

The Match-up: New Orleans (+3.0) @ St. Louis
The Skinny: The Saints expect to have Joe Horn back in the lineup, while the Rams will be without Marc Bulger for at least three weeks. I’m not saying Jamie Martin is Tommy Maddox, but he’s also not a guy I’d wager on.
Straight up: New Orleans
Against the Spread: New Orleans

The Match-up: Green Bay (-2.0) @ Minnesota
The Skinny: Rare is Brett Favre favored in a dome. How bad must the Vikings be?
Straight up: Green Bay
Against the Spread: Green Bay

The Match-up: San Diego (+4.0) @ Philadelphia
The Skinny: The Eagles could use a big win to silence their critics following their embarrassing loss in Dallas prior to the bye. A win over AFC power San Diego would suffice.
Straight up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia

The Match-up: San Francisco (+12.5) @ Washington
The Skinny: The trade of Tim Rattay to Tampa ensures that the 49ers will go with Alex Smith for the remainder of the season. My condolences, Niners fans.
Straight up: Washington
Against the Spread: San Francisco

The Match-up: Pittsburgh (+1.0) @ Cincinnati
The Skinny: Only because I’m not sure how healthy Ben Roethlisberger is.
Straight up: Cincinnati
Against the Spread: Cincinnati

The Match-up: Indianapolis (-16.0) @ Houston
The Skinny: The league’s last undefeated team rolls into Houston, where their fast, aggressive defense should give the Texans’ O-line fits. Perhaps David Carr could save himself some punishment by simply laying down in the pocket.
Straight up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Houston

The Match-up: Detroit (+3.0) @ Cleveland
The Skinny: Since Steve Mariucci has yet to name his starting QB, this is a tough game to pick. My guess is Joey Harrington gets one more week (Translation – take the Browns).
Straight up: Cleveland
Against the Spread: Cleveland

The Match-up: Dallas (+3.0) @ Seattle
The Skinny: Dallas sucks.
Straight up: Seattle
Against the Spread: Seattle

The Match-up: Buffalo (+3.0) @ Oakland
The Skinny: The Raiders may be without Randy Moss, which may or may not be a good thing.
Straight up: Buffalo
Against the Spread: Buffalo

The Match-up: Denver (+2.0) @ New York Giants
The Skinny: Denver has won five straight and sits atop the AFC West. And yet, they’re a road dog against the Giants. Do the math.
Straight up: New York Giants
Against the Spread: New York Giants

The Match-up: Tennessee (+3.5) @ Arizona
The Skinny: If only Dennis Green would have gone with Josh McCown all season. He did this same crap last year (you undoubtedly remember the one and only start of the John Navarre era). Hey Denny, let the kid play!
Straight up: Arizona
Against the Spread: Arizona

The Match-up: Baltimore (+1.0) @ Chicago
The Skinny: Thomas Jones sure looked healthy last week for a guy who was listed as “Doubtful” when I picked them to lose to the Vikings. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on the Bears PR staff.
Straight up: Chicago
Against the Spread: Chicago

The Match-up: New York Jets (+7.0) @ Atlanta
The Skinny: Vinny Testaverde is merely keeping the seat warm for Philip Rivers, who may make his way to New York prior to Tuesday’s trade deadline.
Straight up: Atlanta
Against the Spread: Atlanta

The Week 6 Picks

Before we get to this week’s picks, I have to comment on last week’s Eagles-Cowboys game, and in the interest of censoring myself, I shall replace all of the inappropriate terminology with the word “chicken:”

What the chicken kind of chicken game was that? How do the Eagles go down to chicken Dallas and lose to those chicken chickens? Drew chicken Bledsoe throws for three chicken TD’s? Terry chicken Glenn burns us twice (even though she’s pretty chicken fast)? Chicken. Chicken chicken. That chicken stadium is such a hole. The hole with a chicken hole in the chicken roof. And its filled with chickens. And if I have to see Jerry chicken Jones and that stupid chicken commercial, I’m going to strangle his chicken chicken so hard his chicken plastic surgery will fall of his chicken face. Chicken chicken chicken. Chicken chicken chicken chicken chicken. Mother chickens.

As for the double-digit winning streak? It’s over, thanks to last week’s 8-6 mark (chicken). A push in the Jacksonville/Cincinnati game (thanks to a late move in the line) kept me over .500 on the books for the week.

Apologies for the brevity of these picks, but it’s a road game for The Kid this weekend. Here they are.

The Match-up: Jacksonville (+3.0) @ Pittsburgh
The Skinny: Exhale, Steelers fans – Ben Roethlisberger didn’t tear anything in his knee when it was hyper-extended on Monday night. As for this game, it was a tough call without knowing the status of Roethlisberger’s knee. I mean, if Ben can’t go, the Steelers are left with Charlie Batch at QB, and that’s not good for anyone involved.
Straight up: Jacksonville
Against the Spread: Jacksonville

The Match-up: Minnesota (+3.0) @ Chicago
The Skinny: I know the Vikings have struggled this season and have their problems playing outdoors, but are they really dogs against the Bears without Thomas Jones?
Straight up: Minnesota
Against the Spread: Minnesota

The Match-up: Miami (+5.5) @ Tampa Bay
The Skinny: Watch for Ricky Williams to make his return to action. But the real story is college teammates Ronnie Brown and Carnell Williams facing each other for the first time.
Straight up: Tampa Bay
Against the Spread: Tampa Bay

The Match-up: New York Giants (+3.5) @ Dallas
The Skinny: Chicken Dallas chicken sucks. Chickens.
Straight up: New York Giants
Against the Spread: New York Giants

The Match-up: Cleveland (+5.5) @ Baltimore
The Skinny: You know, some games just don’t inspire anyone. Trent Dilfer vs. Anthony Wright…something tells me this one won’t be airing on ESPN Classic anytime soon.
Straight up: Baltimore
Against the Spread: Baltimore

The Match-up: Carolina (+1.0) @ Detroit
The Skinny: Seriously, the Lions are favored? What’s wrong with this picture?
Straight up: Carolina
Against the Spread: Carolina

The Match-up: Cincinnati (-3.0) @ Tennessee
The Skinny: Still drinking the Bengals Kool Aid despite last week’s loss in Jacksonville.
Straight up: Cincinnati
Against the Spread: Cincinnati

The Match-up: Washington (+6.0) @ Kansas City
The Skinny: Toughest game of the weekend to pick. How will the Chiefs respond off the bye (and off a big collapse at home against the Eagles)? Will the Redskins defense contain Priest Holmes and the potent Kansas City offense? Stay tuned.
Straight up: Kansas City
Against the Spread: Kansas City

The Match-up: Atlanta (-5.5) @ New Orleans
The Skinny: Ron Mexico likely returns for the Dirty Birds, and Deuce McAllister is now done for the year after tearing his ACL last week. Not a good situation for the Saints.
Straight up: Atlanta
Against the Spread: Atlanta

The Match-up: New York Jets (+3.0) @ Buffalo
The Skinny: Kelly Holcomb gets another start at QB for the Bills, and he’ll face a stern challenge from the Jets defense. Memo to Holcomb – get the ball to Lee Evans.
Straight up: Buffalo
Against the Spread: Buffalo

The Match-up: New England (+3.0) @ Denver
The Skinny: The Denver Broncos have played very well of late, especially running the ball and on defense. What’s more, Jake Plummer has gone three straight games without an interception (all three Denver wins). That just means he’s overdue.
Straight up: New England
Against the Spread: New England

The Match-up: San Diego (-2.0) @ Oakland
The Skinny: Big bounce back week for the Bolts after falling to the Steelers at home on Monday. They’ll have a short week to get ready for the Raiders.
Straight up: San Diego
Against the Spread: San Diego

The Match-up: Houston (+9.5) @ Seattle
The Skinny: Even though Matt Hasselbeck has virtually no one to throw to, he still can hand it off to Shaun Alexander, and that alone should be enough to knock off Houston.
Straight up: Seattle
Against the Spread: Seattle

The Match-up: St. Louis (+13.5) @ Indianapolis
The Skinny: St. Louis is great on turf, just not Indianapolis’ turf. The Colts offense still isn’t untracked, and they’re still undefeated. Scary.
Straight up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Indianapolis

The Week 5 Picks

Can you believe that Sunday marks Week 5 already? Its unreal how fast this season is going by. I guess we’re coming up on mid-season, and as coincidence would have it, The Kid is starting to round into mid-season form. Last week’s 10-4 record was my third consecutive 10+ win week, bringing the season record to 39-21 (only percentage points behind ESPN’s top guy, Sean Salisbury, sitting at 39-20). My 9-5 record against the spread was not only my best week of the year, but also got me back above .500 for the season. It’s usually around this time that I hang a 4-10, 3-11 week up there. You’ve been warned.

The Match-up: Baltimore (+1.5) @ Detroit
The Skinny: I know it seems like I rank on Joey Harrington every week, and I usually do. But I thought he showed some signs of life in almost leading the Lions to a road upset in Tampa a week ago. It’s a shame Harrington doesn’t play like that all the time. If he did, Lions fans wouldn’t be counting down the days until Jeff Garcia returns from his broken leg.
Straight up: Baltimore
Against the Spread: Baltimore

The Match-up: New Orleans (+3.0) @ Green Bay
The Skinny: The good news for the Green Bay Packers? Even at 0-4, they are not mathematically eliminated from the playoffs. That’s not to say I’d feel good about their chances, especially with that defense. But if the Packers are going to win 6-7 games this year (which might actually win the NFC North), they’ll need to start soon.
Straight up: Green Bay
Against the Spread: Green Bay

The Match-up: Seattle (+3.0) @ St. Louis
The Skinny: All kidding aside, the Seattle/St. Louis games of late have been good ones, and they always seem to have some impact on the division standings. Of course, with Arizona and San Francisco in the division, the Rams and Seahawks should be first and second (in some order). St. Louis draws first blood in this year’s round robin.
Straight up: St. Louis
Against the Spread: St. Louis

The Match-up: Tampa Bay (-3.5) @ New York Jets
The Skinny: Every now and again, you get a feeling in your gut about a particular game, even if common sense should tell you to feel otherwise. One of the major keys to Tampa’s early-season success has been the running of Carnell “Cadillac” Williams, but it’s highly unlikely that he’ll be able to go on Sunday. The Jets turn the reigns over to 86-year old Vinny Testaverde, a former Buccaneer, and normally that would scare me. But something is telling me that Vinny and the Jets will get it done.
Straight up: New York Jets
Against the Spread: New York Jets

The Match-up: New England (+3.0) @ Atlanta
The Skinny: Remember something I mentioned a couple of weeks back – the Patriots haven’t lost back-to-back games since Weeks 15 and 16 of the 2002 season. That is ridiculous. Against a one-dimensional Falcons offense (especially with Ron Mexico dinged), I like the Patriots to avoid their second consecutive loss.
Straight up: New England
Against the Spread: New England

The Match-up: Miami (+2.5) @ Buffalo
The Skinny: The Bills will turn to Kelly Holcomb in an attempt to jump-start their slumbering offense. Now, that’s not exactly Jim Sorgi subbing for Peyton Manning, but it probably isn’t the solution to Buffalo’s offensive problems either. The reality for the Bills is that they’ll only go as far as the legs of Willis McGahee will take them.
Straight up: Buffalo
Against the Spread: Buffalo

The Match-up: Chicago (+3.0) @ Cleveland
The Skinny: I was only half-kidding last week when I said the Bears would actually gain ground in their division while on bye last week, but that’s exactly what they did. The first place Bears return to action in Cleveland this week.
Straight up: Chicago
Against the Spread: Chicago

The Match-up: Tennessee (+3.0) @ Houston
The Skinny: In a word? Yawn. I guess somebody has to win, right? I actually liked the way Houston hung around with the mighty Bengals last week. I expect them to ride the legs of Domanick Davis to a ‘W’ this week.
Straight up: Houston
Against the Spread: Houston

The Match-up: Indianapolis (-14.0) @ San Francisco
The Skinny: Normally, a 14-point line would be cause for concern, until you realize it’s the potentially Super Bowl bound Colts taking on the 49ers. Can you imagine what the spread would be if the game was in Indianapolis? Alex Smith will make his first NFL start on Sunday, and if the Niners O-line doesn’t block Dwight Freeney, it may be Smith’s last start as well.
Straight up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Indianapolis

The Match-up: Washington (+7.0) @ Denver
The Skinny: Props to both the Redskins and Broncos on big wins last week. The ‘Skins gave up a late score, but eventually beat Seattle in OT to stay undefeated. Denver stepped into the low altitude and defensively frustrated the Jaguars. When two good defenses go head to head, you can bet the game will be tight. Clinton Portis returns to his old haunts, but it’s Denver who will get the last laugh in a tight one at Mile High.
Straight up: Denver
Against the Spread: Washington

The Match-up: Carolina (-3.0) @ Arizona
The Skinny: Anybody else get the feeling the Panthers were going to come from ahead to lose that game Monday against the Packers? They’ll have to play four full quarters to beat a Cardinals team that looks much, much better with Josh McCown under center in place of Kurt Warner.
Straight up: Carolina
Against the Spread: Carolina

The Match-up: Philadelphia (-3.5) @ Dallas
The Skinny: It’s like Christmas in October for me, as the Eagles head to that piece of crap stadium with the hole in the roof looking to win their fourth straight heading into the bye. Last year, the Birds hung 49 on Dallas on a Monday night (the infamous T.O./Nicolette Sheridan towel game). This year, the only towel involved should be the one Dallas throws in after the Eagles start running them off the field.
Straight up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia

The Match-up: Cincinnati (+2.5) @ Jacksonville
The Skinny: The 4-0 Bengals (that still sounds funny, even though I’m drunk on the Cincinnati Bengals Kool Aid) take their show to Jacksonville, where the Jags will be looking to rebound from last week’s embarrassing loss to Denver. I’m a little skeptical of the line (4-0 Cincinnati a road dog?), thus I’m taking Jacksonville. Maybe the buzz is starting to wear off.
Straight up: Jacksonville
Against the Spread: Jacksonville

The Match-up: Pittsburgh (+3.0) @ San Diego
The Skinny: Courtesy of big wins over the New York Giants and New England Patriots (scoring a combined 86 points in the two victories), the Chargers have evened their record at 2-2 and now face their third straight playoff-caliber team, the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Steelers will still have a bad taste in their mouths, as Monday will be their first game action since being upset by the Pats. That said, the Chargers offense is hot. Maybe too hot for even Pittsburgh’s defense to contain.
Straight up: San Diego
Against the Spread: San Diego