The Week 10 Picks

They say bad things come in threes. After last weekend, I believe them.

I spent the better part of Saturday afternoon watching the alleged offensive genius that is Charlie Weis channel his inner Bob Davie, make questionable call after questionable call, and single-handedly cost the Irish a game against Navy. In case you’ve been living under a rock, I’m sure you heard that the loss snapped Notre Dame’s 43-year winning streak over the Midshipmen.

In the grand scheme of things, the loss serves as just another blemish on an utterly disappointing season. What worries me is how they lost. Notre Dame was leading 21-20 and just forced Navy into a field gold attempt, which was no good. At that point in time, if the offense could drive the length of the field, eat up a lot of clock, and score a touchdown, Notre Dame would have led by eight and put Navy in the precarious position of needing a touchdown and two-point conversion just to force overtime, understanding that Navy’s triple option offense is heavily run-oriented and not built for a quick strike.

On first down, Weis called a pass play. Incomplete.

On second down, he called another pass play. QB Evan Sharpley was sacked, put the ball on the ground, and Navy scooped it up and ran it in for a touchdown. Tack on the deuce, and now the Irish are trailing by seven.

After the ensuing kickoff, Notre Dame started a clock-killing, run-first drive that culminated in a touchdown to tie the game (do that with the previous possession and the Irish more than likely win). Then they get the ball back again and march into field goal range. Fourth and eight, less than a minute to go, and Notre Dame can kick a 41-yard field goal to win the game.

Except that Weis opted to go for it.

Sharpley gets sacked, Navy runs out the majority of the clock, and three overtimes later, the Naval Academy is cancelling Monday classes so that the students can continue the celebration.

Look, Charlie Weis knows more about football than I ever will. I’m sure there was a method to his madness. But mismanaging games like that is what caused me to boycott ND games by the end of the Malibu Ken Davie era (I give you Davie calling a corner blitz on 4th and 14 with Michigan State at their own 32, only to watch Herb Haygood run a slant behind the blitzing corner and go 68 yards for the game-winning score). Hopefully this was an anomaly and not a pattern.

So I was hoping Sunday night’s Eagles-Cowboys game would provide some measure of redemption. After all, the Eagles were 12-4 against the Cowboys during the Andy Reid administration, and they should have played with some desperation with their season hanging in the balance.

First play from scrimmage, Donovan McNabb scrambles, gets hit from behind, coughs up the rock, and Dallas is in the end zone within two minutes. The air was out of the balloon, and the Birds got rolled. It didn’t help that TOFU went for 174 yards and a score on ten grabs. Bastard.

The loss dropped the Eagles to 3-5 and led to Philadelphia fans and media calling for Kevin Kolb. Reid has said he is sticking with McNabb…for now. In my estimation, it’s still too early for Reid to pull the trigger on that move, which would in essence end McNabb’s tenure in Philly. Kolb’s time will come, but it’s not now.

What’s the third bad thing? Take your pick – the Northeast Box Company falls for the first time in three weeks (Antonio Gates, one catch for ten yards?); the Flyers are shut out by the Rangers on Monday night; the Steelers crush the hapless Ravens, rendering my last minute switch to Baltimore +9 futile.

Maybe bad things come in fives.

Sunday, November 11, 2007

The Match-up: Cleveland (+9.5) @ Pittsburgh
The Skinny: Even if you’re not from either city, you’ve got to love Browns-Steelers. Pittsburgh manhandled Baltimore on Monday and is easily the third best team in the AFC. But this isn’t the same Cleveland team that the Steelers feasted on in Week 1.
Straight Up: Pittsburgh
Against the Spread: Cleveland

The Match-up: Minnesota (+6.0) @ Green Bay
The Skinny: I believe Adrian Peterson has locked up the Rookie of the Year award (as some guy predicted he would way back in August). He’s halfway to Eric Dickerson’s single-season record 2,105 rushing yards.
Straight Up: Green Bay
Against the Spread: Minnesota

The Match-up: Philadelphia (+3.0) @ Washington
The Skinny: Okay, NOW the Eagles have no margin for error. Beat Washington and Miami in consecutive weeks (doable) to get back to .500, then figure out how the final six games of the year will play out. It’s time to put the puzzle together.
Straight Up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia

The Match-up: Jacksonville (+4.0) @ Tennessee
The Skinny: Two very good defenses plus two relatively anemic offenses equals a closely contested low scoring football game.
Straight Up: Tennessee
Against the Spread: Jacksonville

The Match-up: Atlanta (+4.0) @ Carolina
The Skinny: Carolina should have Vinny Testaverde back under center, which should be music to Steve Smith’s ears.
Straight Up: Carolina
Against the Spread: Carolina

The Match-up: Denver (+3.0) @ Kansas City
The Skinny: If Larry Johnson can’t go with a bad ankle, Priest Holmes will get the starting nod at running back. What an inspiring story, the kind we don’t see enough in sports anymore.
Straight Up: Kansas City
Against the Spread: Kansas City

The Match-up: Buffalo (-3.0) @ Miami
The Skinny: So maybe the Bills aren’t as bad as expected. They’re 4-4 and could be 6-2 had they not lost to Denver and Dallas on the last play of the game after outplaying them both. As long as they don’t get caught looking ahead to New England next week, they should roll the winless Dolphins.
Straight Up: Buffalo
Against the Spread: Buffalo

The Match-up: St. Louis (+11.5) @ New Orleans
The Skinny: The streaking Saints have their sites set on the NFC South title and a return to the playoffs. The Rams, on the other hand, should have their sites set on LSU’s Glenn Dorsey or Michigan’s Jake Long to shore up one of their lines.
Straight Up: New Orleans
Against the Spread: St. Louis

The Match-up: Cincinnati (+4.0) @ Baltimore
The Skinny: So Chris Henry was reinstated by Roger Goodell, and his first day back on the job ends with an altercation with a parking lot attendant. Henry even played the "Do you know who I am?" card. Good to see that a Bengal doesn’t change his stripes.
Straight Up: Cincinnati
Against the Spread: Cincinnati

The Match-up: Chicago (-3.0) @ Oakland
The Skinny: Raiders coach Lane Kiffin said he will kick to Devin Hester in an effort to jump-start his 27th ranked kickoff coverage team. For that reason alone, I like the Bears.
Straight Up: Chicago
Against the Spread: Chicago

The Match-up: Dallas (-1.5) @ New York Giants
The Skinny: With all due respect to the Saints, the Giants are the hottest team in the NFC, having won six straight after opening the year 0-2. I guess the Giants will have to take care of the business the Eagles couldn’t a week ago.
Straight Up: New York Giants
Against the Spread: New York Giants

The Match-up: Detroit (+1.0) @ Arizona
The Skinny: Even the most optimistic Detroit fan will tell you that this is the only time the Lions will be playing in Arizona this season.
Straight Up: Detroit
Against the Spread: Detroit

The Match-up: Indianapolis (-3.5) @ San Diego
The Skinny: Just when you thought it was safe to call the Chargers a contender again, they get housed by AD and the Vikings. They could catch the Colts in a potential let-down situation coming off their crushing defeat to the Patriots, but it seems unlikely.
Straight Up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Indianapolis

Monday, November 12, 2007

The Match-up: San Francisco (+10.0) @ Seattle
The Skinny: A running back is only as good as his offensive line. Have you noticed how Shaun Alexander has declined since Steve Hutchinson left for Minnesota?
Straight Up: Seattle
Against the Spread: Seattle

Bye: Houston, New England, New York Jets, Tampa Bay
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Week 9: 10-4 straight up; 7-7 against the spread
Season: 79-51 (.608); 58-64-8 (.475)