The Week 13 Picks

"You see? You See? He’s not a machine. He’s a man! He’s a man!" – Rocky IV

That quote best describes my overwhelming thought while watching the 24-point underdog Eagles go toe-to-toe with the Patriots on Sunday. The Eagles, playing the role of Rocky (which is only fitting), had the seemingly invincible Patriots (Ivan Drago) on the ropes. They had everyone outside of Boston in their corner. They were on a mission, and they weren’t going to be denied.

Not by Jabar Gaffney and his out-of-bounds touchdown (that mysteriously wasn’t reviewed).

Not by Tom Brady’s bobble-head act which drew a couple of offsides calls.

Not by Randy Moss and his offensive pass interference.

I was so confident that after Laurence Maroney scored to give the Patriots a 31-28 lead with seven minutes to go, I was certain the Eagles were going to drive down the field and score the winning touchdown. In fact, I started crafting my "I told you so" e-mail to everyone that doubted me when I said the Birds would win the game.

Long story short, the Patriots held on to win. Still, the Eagles had earned the respect of the Patriots, the NFL, and perhaps more importantly the people of Philadelphia.

The aftermath of that game resulted in two popular misconceptions:

1. The Eagles had unveiled the blue print for beating New England to the rest of the NFL – while some of the Patriots’ deficiencies were exposed. The Eagles had a perfect game plan on offense, using the middle of the field almost exclusively. In theory, any team can do this. The difference was on defense, where the Eagles constantly pressured Brady and played press man coverage on Moss, which took him out of the game. Not every team has the personnel to match up with New England as well as the Eagles do. Even employing the same game plan does not guarantee future opponents like Baltimore and the Giants success.
2. If the Eagles play as well as they did against New England, they should win out – they key word, of course, is "if." Will the Andy Reid continue to coach as if he’s got nothing to lose? Will the players be motivated to play Seattle, New Orleans, and Buffalo, against whom they’re likely to be favored? There’s another major variable here, namely who quarterbacks this team for the rest of the season?

Not counting Thanksgiving night, this week begins the NFL Network’s live game broadcasts, which are seemingly available in only 10% of households. Great idea, NFL. The NHL on Versus thinks this is a bad idea.

Thursday, November 29, 2007

The Match-up: Green Bay (+7.0) @ Dallas
The Skinny: If Indianapolis-New England was Super Bowl 41.5, what would you call 10-1 Green Bay at 10-1 Dallas? Hopefully we call it Brett Favre’s first ever victory at the toilet that is Texas Stadium.
Straight Up: Green Bay
Against the Spread: Green Bay

Sunday, December 2, 2007

The Match-up: New York Jets (+1.5) @ Miami
The Skinny: OK, the fact that Miami is favored in this game tells me something. Basically, if they don’t win this one, they’re looking at 0-16, and perhaps LSU’s Glenn Dorsey.
Straight Up: Miami
Against the Spread: Miami

The Match-up: Detroit (+3.5) @ Minnesota
The Skinny: Don’t look now, but the Vikings have won three of their last four and, at 5-6, are in the wild card hunt in the NFC. I think some guy gave you that one back in September.
Straight Up: Minnesota
Against the Spread: Minnesota

The Match-up: Seattle (+3.0) @ Philadelphia
The Skinny: The sad thing for me, as a huge Donovan McNabb fan, is that this is starting to look like his last season with the Eagles.
Straight Up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia

The Match-up: Houston (+3.5) @ Tennessee
The Skinny: Tennessee frightens me from a gambling perspective. For that matter, so does Houston. I haven’t been able to get an accurate read on either of these teams all year. One week they look like playoff contenders, the next they get run off the field by an inferior opponent. I have to go with Vegas on this one, because quite frankly I don’t have a clue.
Straight Up: Tennessee
Against the Spread: Tennessee

The Match-up: Jacksonville (+6.5) @ Indianapolis
The Skinny: How about the Jaguars for a dark horse AFC team? They’ve got a very good defense, a great running game, and efficient quarterback who doesn’t make mistakes. Sounds like a winning formula to me.
Straight Up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Jacksonville

The Match-up: Buffalo (+5.5) @ Washington
The Skinny: In the wake of the murder of safety Sean Taylor, the Redskins are slated for two games over the next nine days. Not sure if they’ll be emotionally high or drained. I’ve got to figure the ‘Skins will rally around their fallen teammate, at least this week. R.I.P., Sean.
Straight Up: Washington
Against the Spread: Washington

The Match-up: San Diego (-5.5) @ Kansas City
The Skinny: The Chiefs fell to Oakland by three last week when coach Herm Edwards opted to go for it on 4th and 1 instead of attempting the 41-yard field goal. Um, coach? YOU PLAY TO TIE THE GAME! Hello?
Straight Up: San Diego
Against the Spread: San Diego

The Match-up: San Francisco (+3.0) @ Carolina
The Skinny: The Panthers are a mess right now. Let’s start with the fact that they haven’t won a home game in a calendar year. Steve Smith has a hamstring injury and is doubtful. Not that it matters with the guys they’re running out there at quarterback. And, Coach John Fox is rumored to be on the outs. I’ll take the Niners, who welcome Frank Gore back from the witness protection program. Wonder if he was hanging with Shaun Alexander.
Straight Up: San Francisco
Against the Spread: San Francisco

The Match-up: Atlanta (Off) @ St. Louis
The Skinny: I’d be more excited about the Rams if they hadn’t just coughed up a 19-7 lead at home last week. Or if they didn’t have to roll Gus Frerotte out there at quarterback.
Straight Up: St. Louis
Against the Spread: St. Louis

The Match-up: Cleveland (Pick) @ Arizona
The Skinny: Speaking of coughing things up, I don’t ever recall seeing a team lose in overtime because the quarterback fumbled the ball in his own end zone and the defense recovered for the game-winning score. Ladies and gentlemen, your 2007 Arizona Cardinals!
Straight Up: Cleveland
Against the Spread: Cleveland

The Match-up: Denver (-3.5) @ Oakland
The Skinny: If Denver misses the playoffs by a game, they can point squarely to last week’s tank job against the Bears in Chicago. Memo to Mike Shanahan – you may want to kick it away from Devin Hester.
Straight Up: Denver
Against the Spread: Denver

The Match-up: Tampa Bay (+3.0) @ New Orleans
The Skinny: If the Buccaneers can beat the Saints, they’ll open a three-game lead in the NFC South with four games to play. But the Saints have battled back to 5-6 after their 0-4 start, so I don’t expect them to go away without a fight.
Straight Up: New Orleans
Against the Spread: New Orleans

The Match-up: New York Giants (-1.5) @ Chicago
The Skinny: Can we officially label Eli Manning a bust yet? I’m not sure Cooper Manning could throw four interceptions with three going the other way for scores.
Straight Up: Chicago
Against the Spread: Chicago

The Match-up: Cincinnati (+7.0) @ Pittsburgh
The Skinny: Nice to see Ocho Cinco breaking out of his scoring drought with three touchdowns last week. Still, I’m not sure I understand the celebration. Hijacking the TV camera? Not really funny, OC.
Straight Up: Pittsburgh
Against the Spread: Pittsburgh

Monday, December 3, 2007

The Match-up: New England (-20.5) @ Baltimore
The Skinny: Maybe the Eagles game last week was more of a wake-up call to the Patriots than it was a blueprint for the rest of the league. Either way, it wouldn’t surprise me to see them hang 56 on a Baltimore defense that is a shell of its former self.
Straight Up: New England
Against the Spread: New England
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Week 12: 8-8 straight up; 9-7 against the spread
Season: 103-73 (.585); 80-85-11 (.485)