There are an abnormal number of road favorites this week, and as I am heading on the road myself, the picks will be brief in nature.
Sunday, September 30, 2007
The Match-up: Green Bay (-1.5) @ Minnesota
The Skinny: The Packers have one nine straight games dating back to 2006, and are 3-0 against three playoff teams of a year ago. Impressive. Brett Favre in a dome? Not impressive.
Straight Up: Minnesota
Against the Spread: Minnesota
The Match-up: Houston (-3.0) @ Atlanta
The Skinny: Matt Schaub torches the Falcons in his homecoming effort.
Straight Up: Houston
Against the Spread: Houston
The Match-up: New York Jets (-3.5) @ Buffalo
The Skinny: The Jets run defense hasn’t been good, but they’re facing a rookie starting quarterback, so they’ll key on Marshawn Lynch.
Straight Up: New York Jets
Against the Spread: New York Jets
The Match-up: Baltimore (-4.5) @ Cleveland
The Skinny: Speaking of poor run defenses, the Browns are allowing 176 yards per game on the ground. Hello, Willis McGahee!
Straight Up: Baltimore
Against the Spread: Baltimore
The Match-up: St. Louis (+12.5) @ Dallas
The Skinny: If you don’t know the name Brian Leonard, you will by Sunday at 4:15.
Straight Up: St. Louis
Against the Spread: St. Louis
The Match-up: Chicago (-2.5) @ Detroit
The Skinny: Brian Griese gets the start for Chicago in place of the ineffective "Wrecks" Grossman.
Straight Up: Chicago
Against the Spread: Chicago
The Match-up: Oakland (+4.0) @ Miami
The Skinny: Can you call this a homecoming for Daunte Culpepper? He did only play five games for Miami, and not well at that.
Straight Up: Oakland
Against the Spread: Oakland
The Match-up: Seattle (-2.0) @ San Francisco
The Skinny: The road has not been kind to the Seahawks in the past.
Straight Up: Seattle
Against the Spread: Seattle
The Match-up: Tampa Bay (Off) @ Carolina
The Skinny: Carolina may start David Carr at quarterback with Jake Del-overrated on the shelf.
Straight Up: Tampa Bay
Against the Spread: Tampa Bay
The Match-up: Pittsburgh (-6.0) @ Arizona
The Skinny: Fortunately for the Northeast Box Company, Kurt Warner came in last week and started throwing the ball to Anquan Boldin.
Straight Up: Pittsburgh
Against the Spread: Pittsburgh
The Match-up: Kansas City (+11.5) @ San Diego
The Skinny: The Saints think the Chargers are struggling.
Straight Up: San Diego
Against the Spread: Kansas City
The Match-up: Denver (+9.5) @ Indianapolis
The Skinny: I knew Denver was bad, yet couldn’t talk myself into a Jaguars upset last week. No such convincing needed this week.
Straight Up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Indianapolis
The Match-up: Philadelphia (-3.0) @ New York Giants
The Skinny: Justice for me would have been Donovan McNabb entering his post-game press conference last week and, without saying a word, holding up a sign with his stats (21/26, 381 Yards, 4 TD, 0 INT, perfect QB rating) and a middle finger for all of his critics.
Straight Up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia
Monday, October 1, 2007
The Match-up: New England (-7.0) @ Cincinnati
The Skinny: this is the kind of game where the Bengals will explode and scare the crap out of Bill Beli-cheat.
Straight Up: New England
Against the Spread: Cincinnati
Bye: Jacksonville, New Orleans, Tennessee, Washington
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Week 2: 9-7 straight up; 5-8-3 against the spread
Season: 30-18; 18-24-6
Thursday, September 27, 2007
Friday, September 21, 2007
The Week 3 Picks
Please forgive me if I seem a little irritable.
You see, as my sports teams go, I go. And right now, nothing seems to be working for me. Yes, the Fightin’ Phils are making a push for their first playoff appearance since 1993. Sure, Flyers training camp is open and they looked poised to return to contender status after a one year blip off the NHL’s radar.
I shouldn’t be focused on the Phillies and Flyers at this time of year, but that’s what happens when my college football team scores like A.C. Green, and when I watch my pro football team stumble out of the gate like a three-legged horse. I’m about as angry as O.J. busting commando-style into a hotel room looking for some stolen memorabilia. And now I’ll be dropping F-bombs like Samuel L. Jackson and Denis Leary, so if foul language offends you, feel free to skip ahead to the picks…
Let’s start with Notre Dame and their offensive ineptitude. I know they’re rebuilding (sorry, Charlie, that’s the word), but this is ridiculous. The Michigan game was a fucking embarrassment. It’s like there wasn’t even an offensive line on the field. Two of the first five snaps went over Jimmy Clausen’s head. They can’t run block (as evidenced by their 120th-ranked rushing offense, worst in the NCAA), nor can they pass block (Irish quarterbacks have been sacked 23 times in three games, also an NCAA worst). On one play, the Wolverines rushed only their four down linemen AND ALL FOUR TACKLED CLAUSEN AT THE SAME TIME!!! What the fuck is that about? How does that even happen? You’d think the five O-linemen might at least get a piece of somebody. The defense may be the strength of the team, and they are on the field for 45 fucking minutes a game because the offense can’t sustain drives. Charlie Weis says they’re going back to the drawing board and starting over, but in the immortal words of S. Phil Hunter, "you can’t make chicken salad out of chicken shit." Take a look at the schedule and see who’s on the horizon – Michigan State (who always gives us fits), Purdue (ditto), UCLA, Boston Fucking College (that’s their official name, by the way), and USC. To be honest, I’m not sure I feel good about Stanford and the service academies, either. Can we beat Duke? Are we really looking at 1-11? I think I need a barf bag.
Remember last year when Donovan McNabb tore his ACL and the Eagles rallied around Brian Westbrook and a renewed commitment to the running game? Well, neither do they. Why the hell are they still throwing the ball 75 percent of the time when you’ve got Westbrook averaging better than five yards per carry? Is Marty Mornhinweg still calling the plays, or is he locked in an equipment trunk somewhere? Reggie Brown and Kevin Curtis are dropping the ball like it’s a fucking hand grenade without a pin. The only guy that catches the ball consistently is Hank Baskett, and he’s basically been relegated to special teams because Andy Reid’s got a boner for Jason Avant. During Monday night’s debacle against Washington, I actually - you may want to sit for this – wished they could get T.O. back. Is it really a coincidence that the one time they made it to the Super Bowl they actually had a legitimate number one receiver?
Look, there’s not a bigger McNabb fan on the planet than me. I’ve been his biggest supporter during his entire tenure in Philly, and he’s been unfairly criticized a lot. Never has a superstar quarterback been asked to do so much with so little. But he shouldn’t be the focal point of the offense, especially if he’s only operating at 80% efficiency right now as he recovers from his ACL surgery. They’ve got to do a better job of running the ball, committing to it 25-30 times a game between Westbrook, Correll Buckhalter, and even Tony Hunt if the other two are spent.
And if McNabb is accurate in his assessment that they need to close the deal sooner than later (and I agree, by the way), they’d better do something about the play-calling and the pu-pu platter of receivers before they have to blow the whole thing up and start over.
Serenity now…serenity now.
Sunday, September 23, 2007
The Match-up: Indianapolis (-6.0) @ Houston
The Skinny: At full strength, I think the Texans could give the Colts a game. No, seriously. But they’ll be without the most under-the-radar WR in the league, Andre Johnson, who’s got a bum knee.
Straight Up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Indianapolis
The Match-up: Buffalo (+16.5) @ New England
The Skinny: I’m not sure if Sunday’s game told me more about the Patriots or the Chargers. Either way, I’m convinced that the Pats are the best team in the league right now. I guess Randy Moss feels like playing this year.
Straight Up: New England
Against the Spread: Buffalo
The Match-up: Miami (+3.0) @ New York Jets
The Skinny: My buddy Keith calls this the "Squish the Fish" game. But Dolphins aren’t fish, they’re mammals. Either way, I think they’ll get squished.
Straight Up: New York Jets
Against the Spread: New York Jets
The Match-up: Detroit (+6.0) @ Philadelphia
The Skinny: Yes, the Eagles are 0-2. They were also 0-2 in 2003, then won 12 of their next 13 and finished the year as the top seed in the NFC. So while I may be concerned, I’m not pushing the panic button…yet.
Straight Up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia
The Match-up: San Francisco (+9.0) @ Pittsburgh
The Skinny: Yes, the Steelers have looked great this season, albeit against inferior opponents Cleveland and Buffalo. It’s not like the 49ers are the ’72 Dolphins, but they should provide a better assessment as to how good the Steelers really are.
Straight Up: Pittsburgh
Against the Spread: Pittsburgh
The Match-up: St. Louis (+3.5) @ Tampa Bay
The Skinny: While neither has offense has lit the world on fire so far, at least the Rams have the potential to explode. Sooner or later, Steven Jackson is going to bust out. Not sure the same can be said of "Cadillac" Williams.
Straight Up: St. Louis
Against the Spread: St. Louis
The Match-up: San Diego (-5.0) @ Green Bay
The Skinny: Dating back to last season, the Packers are on an eight game winning streak. But the Chargers need a rebound after Sunday’s abysmal performance in Foxboro.
Straight Up: San Diego
Against the Spread: Green Bay
The Match-up: Arizona (+8.0) @ Baltimore
The Skinny: New Cardinals head coach should be plenty familiar with the Ravens having spent some time with their division-rival Steelers. This game could come down to the field goal kickers, and Neil Rackers and Matt Stover can both boot them.
Straight Up: Baltimore
Against the Spread: Arizona
The Match-up: Minnesota (+3.0) @ Kansas City
The Skinny: The Vikings are making me look pretty smart for tabbing them as my sleeper team for this year.
Straight Up: Minnesota
Against the Spread: Minnesota
The Match-up: Cleveland (+3.0) @ Oakland
The Skinny: Wait, those were really the Cleveland Browns racking up 51 points last week? They may not score 51 points over the next four weeks.
Straight Up: Oakland
Against the Spread: Oakland
The Match-up: Cincinnati (+3.5) @ Seattle
The Skinny: Maybe the Bengals defense isn’t new and improved. I’m sure a lot of people picked them up on waivers for their fantasy teams and got burned.
Straight Up: Seattle
Against the Spread: Seattle
The Match-up: Jacksonville (+3.0) @ Denver
The Skinny: The Broncos have to be the most unimpressive 2-0 team in the league. They needed a last second field goal to beat Buffalo, and overtime to knock off Oakland. At home against a Jacksonville team that can’t seem to find its offense, they’re probably looking at another squeaker.
Straight Up: Denver
Against the Spread: Denver
The Match-up: Carolina (-3.5) @ Atlanta
The Skinny: I figure if I keep picking them to win, maybe they’ll lose (since they’ve already screwed me twice this season).
Straight Up: Carolina
Against the Spread: Carolina
The Match-up: New York Giants (+3.5) @ Washington
The Skinny: I thought the MNF guys made a good point the other night – all of Washington’s starters in the secondary are former first-round picks. So glad the Eagles decided to chuck it 46 times against them. Serenity now…serenity now.
Straight Up: Washington
Against the Spread: Washington
The Match-up: Dallas (+3.0) @ Chicago
The Skinny: If I’m Lovie Smith, I’m getting Devin Hester on the field in every possible situation. I say he breaks one against the stinkin’ Cowboys.
Straight Up: Chicago
Against the Spread: Chicago
Monday, September 24, 2007
The Match-up: Tennessee (+4.0) @ New Orleans
The Skinny: So were the Saints an anomaly last year, or are they truly better than they’ve been this year? They were outstanding in front of their home crowd in 2006. I’m banking on them feeding off that again.
Straight Up: New Orleans
Against the Spread: New Orleans
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Week 2: 9-7 straight up; 6-9-1 against the spread
Season: 21-11; 13-16-3
You see, as my sports teams go, I go. And right now, nothing seems to be working for me. Yes, the Fightin’ Phils are making a push for their first playoff appearance since 1993. Sure, Flyers training camp is open and they looked poised to return to contender status after a one year blip off the NHL’s radar.
I shouldn’t be focused on the Phillies and Flyers at this time of year, but that’s what happens when my college football team scores like A.C. Green, and when I watch my pro football team stumble out of the gate like a three-legged horse. I’m about as angry as O.J. busting commando-style into a hotel room looking for some stolen memorabilia. And now I’ll be dropping F-bombs like Samuel L. Jackson and Denis Leary, so if foul language offends you, feel free to skip ahead to the picks…
Let’s start with Notre Dame and their offensive ineptitude. I know they’re rebuilding (sorry, Charlie, that’s the word), but this is ridiculous. The Michigan game was a fucking embarrassment. It’s like there wasn’t even an offensive line on the field. Two of the first five snaps went over Jimmy Clausen’s head. They can’t run block (as evidenced by their 120th-ranked rushing offense, worst in the NCAA), nor can they pass block (Irish quarterbacks have been sacked 23 times in three games, also an NCAA worst). On one play, the Wolverines rushed only their four down linemen AND ALL FOUR TACKLED CLAUSEN AT THE SAME TIME!!! What the fuck is that about? How does that even happen? You’d think the five O-linemen might at least get a piece of somebody. The defense may be the strength of the team, and they are on the field for 45 fucking minutes a game because the offense can’t sustain drives. Charlie Weis says they’re going back to the drawing board and starting over, but in the immortal words of S. Phil Hunter, "you can’t make chicken salad out of chicken shit." Take a look at the schedule and see who’s on the horizon – Michigan State (who always gives us fits), Purdue (ditto), UCLA, Boston Fucking College (that’s their official name, by the way), and USC. To be honest, I’m not sure I feel good about Stanford and the service academies, either. Can we beat Duke? Are we really looking at 1-11? I think I need a barf bag.
Remember last year when Donovan McNabb tore his ACL and the Eagles rallied around Brian Westbrook and a renewed commitment to the running game? Well, neither do they. Why the hell are they still throwing the ball 75 percent of the time when you’ve got Westbrook averaging better than five yards per carry? Is Marty Mornhinweg still calling the plays, or is he locked in an equipment trunk somewhere? Reggie Brown and Kevin Curtis are dropping the ball like it’s a fucking hand grenade without a pin. The only guy that catches the ball consistently is Hank Baskett, and he’s basically been relegated to special teams because Andy Reid’s got a boner for Jason Avant. During Monday night’s debacle against Washington, I actually - you may want to sit for this – wished they could get T.O. back. Is it really a coincidence that the one time they made it to the Super Bowl they actually had a legitimate number one receiver?
Look, there’s not a bigger McNabb fan on the planet than me. I’ve been his biggest supporter during his entire tenure in Philly, and he’s been unfairly criticized a lot. Never has a superstar quarterback been asked to do so much with so little. But he shouldn’t be the focal point of the offense, especially if he’s only operating at 80% efficiency right now as he recovers from his ACL surgery. They’ve got to do a better job of running the ball, committing to it 25-30 times a game between Westbrook, Correll Buckhalter, and even Tony Hunt if the other two are spent.
And if McNabb is accurate in his assessment that they need to close the deal sooner than later (and I agree, by the way), they’d better do something about the play-calling and the pu-pu platter of receivers before they have to blow the whole thing up and start over.
Serenity now…serenity now.
Sunday, September 23, 2007
The Match-up: Indianapolis (-6.0) @ Houston
The Skinny: At full strength, I think the Texans could give the Colts a game. No, seriously. But they’ll be without the most under-the-radar WR in the league, Andre Johnson, who’s got a bum knee.
Straight Up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Indianapolis
The Match-up: Buffalo (+16.5) @ New England
The Skinny: I’m not sure if Sunday’s game told me more about the Patriots or the Chargers. Either way, I’m convinced that the Pats are the best team in the league right now. I guess Randy Moss feels like playing this year.
Straight Up: New England
Against the Spread: Buffalo
The Match-up: Miami (+3.0) @ New York Jets
The Skinny: My buddy Keith calls this the "Squish the Fish" game. But Dolphins aren’t fish, they’re mammals. Either way, I think they’ll get squished.
Straight Up: New York Jets
Against the Spread: New York Jets
The Match-up: Detroit (+6.0) @ Philadelphia
The Skinny: Yes, the Eagles are 0-2. They were also 0-2 in 2003, then won 12 of their next 13 and finished the year as the top seed in the NFC. So while I may be concerned, I’m not pushing the panic button…yet.
Straight Up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia
The Match-up: San Francisco (+9.0) @ Pittsburgh
The Skinny: Yes, the Steelers have looked great this season, albeit against inferior opponents Cleveland and Buffalo. It’s not like the 49ers are the ’72 Dolphins, but they should provide a better assessment as to how good the Steelers really are.
Straight Up: Pittsburgh
Against the Spread: Pittsburgh
The Match-up: St. Louis (+3.5) @ Tampa Bay
The Skinny: While neither has offense has lit the world on fire so far, at least the Rams have the potential to explode. Sooner or later, Steven Jackson is going to bust out. Not sure the same can be said of "Cadillac" Williams.
Straight Up: St. Louis
Against the Spread: St. Louis
The Match-up: San Diego (-5.0) @ Green Bay
The Skinny: Dating back to last season, the Packers are on an eight game winning streak. But the Chargers need a rebound after Sunday’s abysmal performance in Foxboro.
Straight Up: San Diego
Against the Spread: Green Bay
The Match-up: Arizona (+8.0) @ Baltimore
The Skinny: New Cardinals head coach should be plenty familiar with the Ravens having spent some time with their division-rival Steelers. This game could come down to the field goal kickers, and Neil Rackers and Matt Stover can both boot them.
Straight Up: Baltimore
Against the Spread: Arizona
The Match-up: Minnesota (+3.0) @ Kansas City
The Skinny: The Vikings are making me look pretty smart for tabbing them as my sleeper team for this year.
Straight Up: Minnesota
Against the Spread: Minnesota
The Match-up: Cleveland (+3.0) @ Oakland
The Skinny: Wait, those were really the Cleveland Browns racking up 51 points last week? They may not score 51 points over the next four weeks.
Straight Up: Oakland
Against the Spread: Oakland
The Match-up: Cincinnati (+3.5) @ Seattle
The Skinny: Maybe the Bengals defense isn’t new and improved. I’m sure a lot of people picked them up on waivers for their fantasy teams and got burned.
Straight Up: Seattle
Against the Spread: Seattle
The Match-up: Jacksonville (+3.0) @ Denver
The Skinny: The Broncos have to be the most unimpressive 2-0 team in the league. They needed a last second field goal to beat Buffalo, and overtime to knock off Oakland. At home against a Jacksonville team that can’t seem to find its offense, they’re probably looking at another squeaker.
Straight Up: Denver
Against the Spread: Denver
The Match-up: Carolina (-3.5) @ Atlanta
The Skinny: I figure if I keep picking them to win, maybe they’ll lose (since they’ve already screwed me twice this season).
Straight Up: Carolina
Against the Spread: Carolina
The Match-up: New York Giants (+3.5) @ Washington
The Skinny: I thought the MNF guys made a good point the other night – all of Washington’s starters in the secondary are former first-round picks. So glad the Eagles decided to chuck it 46 times against them. Serenity now…serenity now.
Straight Up: Washington
Against the Spread: Washington
The Match-up: Dallas (+3.0) @ Chicago
The Skinny: If I’m Lovie Smith, I’m getting Devin Hester on the field in every possible situation. I say he breaks one against the stinkin’ Cowboys.
Straight Up: Chicago
Against the Spread: Chicago
Monday, September 24, 2007
The Match-up: Tennessee (+4.0) @ New Orleans
The Skinny: So were the Saints an anomaly last year, or are they truly better than they’ve been this year? They were outstanding in front of their home crowd in 2006. I’m banking on them feeding off that again.
Straight Up: New Orleans
Against the Spread: New Orleans
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Week 2: 9-7 straight up; 6-9-1 against the spread
Season: 21-11; 13-16-3
Friday, September 14, 2007
The Week 2 Picks
If you’re not cheating, you’re not trying.
I’m not sure who originally penned that phrase, but growing up playing sports, I heard it uttered countless times. I guess the implication was that athletes bend the rules in order to gain a competitive edge.
Here’s another one I heard a lot - It’s only cheating if you get caught.
Well, this week, the Patriots got caught. A team representative was nabbed for videotaping the Jets coaching staff in an effort to determine defensive calls and things of that nature. Obviously, it worked (the Pats rolled, 38-14). What’s worse, New England coach Bill Belichick is apparently a repeat offender, having been accused of these types of tactics before. It’s not like Roger Goodell came down hard. Belichick was assessed a $500,000 fine, the team another $250,000, and the Patriots will forfeit one of their two 2008 first-round picks. Personally, I think a suspension would have been in order, especially with some of the other, stiffer punishments doled out by the commish.
With all this in mind, I wonder about the legitimacy of the Patriots’ 24-21 win over the Eagles in Super Bowl XXXIX. As stated in this article, the evidence is damning. New England amassed only 45 yards in the first quarter, and 268 for the remaining three. The Eagles would blitz, and the Pats would run a little screen pass to that side.
Hmmmm…
So am I just crazy? Or am I a conspiracy theorist? Or am I a bitter Eagles fan who now feels like we deserved a better fate in that game?
Yes, yes, and yes.
And, if they were to somehow, some way award the Eagles a victory in that game, would I celebrate it three years later?
You bet your asterisk I would.
Sunday, September 16, 2007
The Match-up: Houston (+6.5) @ Carolina
The Skinny: So the good Jake Del-overrated showed up last week for the Panthers. Will he show up again?
Straight Up: Carolina
Against the Spread: Carolina
The Match-up: Atlanta (+10.0) @ Jacksonville
The Skinny: Neither of these teams impressed last week, with the Jaguars losing at home to Tennessee and the Falcons falling to Houston. If their opener is any indication, the Falcons should be able to run the ball at will, which will at the very least keep it close.
Straight Up: Jacksonville
Against the Spread: Atlanta
The Match-up: Indianapolis (-7.0) @ Tennessee
The Skinny: It seems like forever ago that the Colts opened their Super Bowl defense with a 31- point dismantling of the Saints. I bet Vince Young sees it every time he closes his eyes.
Straight Up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Indianapolis
The Match-up: San Francisco (+3.0) @ St. Louis
The Skinny: While San Francisco didn’t look great in winning last week, St. Louis looked awful in losing. Just a hunch here, but both teams are likely better than they showed a week ago.
Straight Up: San Francisco
Against the Spread: San Francisco
The Match-up: Green Bay (Pick) @ New York Giants
The Skinny: Now starting at quarterback for your New York Giants – the Pillsbury Throwboy!!!
Straight Up: Green Bay
Against the Spread: Green Bay
The Match-up: Buffalo (+9.5) @ Pittsburgh
The Skinny: A gimpy Travis Henry racked up 139 yards against Buffalo in Buffalo last week. Willie Parker should be chomping at the bit right now.
Straight Up: Pittsburgh
Against the Spread: Pittsburgh
The Match-up: Cincinnati (-6.5) @ Cleveland
The Skinny: Memo to Browns brain trust – I know you think you’re trying to protect your investment by keeping Brady Quinn on the sideline in a baseball cap. You’re going to have to start him sooner or later. Why not now?
Straight Up: Cincinnati
Against the Spread: Cincinnati
The Match-up: New Orleans (-3.5) @ Tampa Bay
The Skinny: Even in their hey day, the Buccaneers defense was susceptible to the run. Enter Deuce McAllister.
Straight Up: New Orleans
Against the Spread: New Orleans
The Match-up: Minnesota (+3.0) @ Detroit
The Skinny: With a win on Sunday, the Lions could be 2-0 for the first time since the Barry Sanders administration. But the Vikings are my sleeper for a reason. Their defense was sensational last week, and Adrian Peterson is as good as advertised.
Straight Up: Minnesota
Against the Spread: Minnesota
The Match-up: Dallas (-3.5) @ Miami
The Skinny: At least the Cowboys will be challenged by Miami’s defense.
Straight Up: Miami
Against the Spread: Miami
The Match-up: Seattle (-3.0) @ Arizona
The Skinny: Good omen for the Seahawks – they are 30-6 when Shaun Alexander runs for over 100 yards. Even if he has to carry the ball 30 times to get there.
Straight Up: Seattle
Against the Spread: Seattle
The Match-up: New York Jets (+10.0) @ Baltimore
The Skinny: I’m not sure why this line is so high. I’d venture to argue that the drop off from Steve McNair to Kyle Boller is greater than Chad Pennington to Kellen Clemens. I almost want to take the Jets to win outright.
Straight Up: Baltimore
Against the Spread: New York Jets
The Match-up: Kansas City (+12.0) @ Chicago
The Skinny: If the Bears defense can replicate their effort of a week ago, when they put the clamps on San Diego’s potent offense, Kansas City has pretty much no shot.
Straight Up: Chicago
Against the Spread: Chicago
The Match-up: Oakland (+10.0) @ Denver
The Skinny: Weird win for the Broncos last week. They outgained Buffalo 470-184, yet needed a Jason Elam field goal at the gun to beat the Bills. Not sure if I’m encouraged or discouraged by that kind of performance.
Straight Up: Denver
Against the Spread: Denver
The Match-up: San Diego (+3.5) @ New England
The Skinny: So, will “Videogate” be a distraction to the Patriots? Or, will they be able to beat San Diego without taped assistance? Until proven otherwise, I still don’t feel comfortable going against New England at home.
Straight Up: New England
Against the Spread: New England
Monday, September 17, 2007
The Match-up: Washington (+6.5) @ Philadelphia
The Skinny: Last week’s game illustrates just how important special teams are. If the Eagles could fair catch a punt, they’d be 1-0 right now. Welcome home, Reno Mahe!
Straight Up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia
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Week 1: 12-4 straight up; 7-7-2 against the spread
Season: 12-4; 7-7-2
I’m not sure who originally penned that phrase, but growing up playing sports, I heard it uttered countless times. I guess the implication was that athletes bend the rules in order to gain a competitive edge.
Here’s another one I heard a lot - It’s only cheating if you get caught.
Well, this week, the Patriots got caught. A team representative was nabbed for videotaping the Jets coaching staff in an effort to determine defensive calls and things of that nature. Obviously, it worked (the Pats rolled, 38-14). What’s worse, New England coach Bill Belichick is apparently a repeat offender, having been accused of these types of tactics before. It’s not like Roger Goodell came down hard. Belichick was assessed a $500,000 fine, the team another $250,000, and the Patriots will forfeit one of their two 2008 first-round picks. Personally, I think a suspension would have been in order, especially with some of the other, stiffer punishments doled out by the commish.
With all this in mind, I wonder about the legitimacy of the Patriots’ 24-21 win over the Eagles in Super Bowl XXXIX. As stated in this article, the evidence is damning. New England amassed only 45 yards in the first quarter, and 268 for the remaining three. The Eagles would blitz, and the Pats would run a little screen pass to that side.
Hmmmm…
So am I just crazy? Or am I a conspiracy theorist? Or am I a bitter Eagles fan who now feels like we deserved a better fate in that game?
Yes, yes, and yes.
And, if they were to somehow, some way award the Eagles a victory in that game, would I celebrate it three years later?
You bet your asterisk I would.
Sunday, September 16, 2007
The Match-up: Houston (+6.5) @ Carolina
The Skinny: So the good Jake Del-overrated showed up last week for the Panthers. Will he show up again?
Straight Up: Carolina
Against the Spread: Carolina
The Match-up: Atlanta (+10.0) @ Jacksonville
The Skinny: Neither of these teams impressed last week, with the Jaguars losing at home to Tennessee and the Falcons falling to Houston. If their opener is any indication, the Falcons should be able to run the ball at will, which will at the very least keep it close.
Straight Up: Jacksonville
Against the Spread: Atlanta
The Match-up: Indianapolis (-7.0) @ Tennessee
The Skinny: It seems like forever ago that the Colts opened their Super Bowl defense with a 31- point dismantling of the Saints. I bet Vince Young sees it every time he closes his eyes.
Straight Up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Indianapolis
The Match-up: San Francisco (+3.0) @ St. Louis
The Skinny: While San Francisco didn’t look great in winning last week, St. Louis looked awful in losing. Just a hunch here, but both teams are likely better than they showed a week ago.
Straight Up: San Francisco
Against the Spread: San Francisco
The Match-up: Green Bay (Pick) @ New York Giants
The Skinny: Now starting at quarterback for your New York Giants – the Pillsbury Throwboy!!!
Straight Up: Green Bay
Against the Spread: Green Bay
The Match-up: Buffalo (+9.5) @ Pittsburgh
The Skinny: A gimpy Travis Henry racked up 139 yards against Buffalo in Buffalo last week. Willie Parker should be chomping at the bit right now.
Straight Up: Pittsburgh
Against the Spread: Pittsburgh
The Match-up: Cincinnati (-6.5) @ Cleveland
The Skinny: Memo to Browns brain trust – I know you think you’re trying to protect your investment by keeping Brady Quinn on the sideline in a baseball cap. You’re going to have to start him sooner or later. Why not now?
Straight Up: Cincinnati
Against the Spread: Cincinnati
The Match-up: New Orleans (-3.5) @ Tampa Bay
The Skinny: Even in their hey day, the Buccaneers defense was susceptible to the run. Enter Deuce McAllister.
Straight Up: New Orleans
Against the Spread: New Orleans
The Match-up: Minnesota (+3.0) @ Detroit
The Skinny: With a win on Sunday, the Lions could be 2-0 for the first time since the Barry Sanders administration. But the Vikings are my sleeper for a reason. Their defense was sensational last week, and Adrian Peterson is as good as advertised.
Straight Up: Minnesota
Against the Spread: Minnesota
The Match-up: Dallas (-3.5) @ Miami
The Skinny: At least the Cowboys will be challenged by Miami’s defense.
Straight Up: Miami
Against the Spread: Miami
The Match-up: Seattle (-3.0) @ Arizona
The Skinny: Good omen for the Seahawks – they are 30-6 when Shaun Alexander runs for over 100 yards. Even if he has to carry the ball 30 times to get there.
Straight Up: Seattle
Against the Spread: Seattle
The Match-up: New York Jets (+10.0) @ Baltimore
The Skinny: I’m not sure why this line is so high. I’d venture to argue that the drop off from Steve McNair to Kyle Boller is greater than Chad Pennington to Kellen Clemens. I almost want to take the Jets to win outright.
Straight Up: Baltimore
Against the Spread: New York Jets
The Match-up: Kansas City (+12.0) @ Chicago
The Skinny: If the Bears defense can replicate their effort of a week ago, when they put the clamps on San Diego’s potent offense, Kansas City has pretty much no shot.
Straight Up: Chicago
Against the Spread: Chicago
The Match-up: Oakland (+10.0) @ Denver
The Skinny: Weird win for the Broncos last week. They outgained Buffalo 470-184, yet needed a Jason Elam field goal at the gun to beat the Bills. Not sure if I’m encouraged or discouraged by that kind of performance.
Straight Up: Denver
Against the Spread: Denver
The Match-up: San Diego (+3.5) @ New England
The Skinny: So, will “Videogate” be a distraction to the Patriots? Or, will they be able to beat San Diego without taped assistance? Until proven otherwise, I still don’t feel comfortable going against New England at home.
Straight Up: New England
Against the Spread: New England
Monday, September 17, 2007
The Match-up: Washington (+6.5) @ Philadelphia
The Skinny: Last week’s game illustrates just how important special teams are. If the Eagles could fair catch a punt, they’d be 1-0 right now. Welcome home, Reno Mahe!
Straight Up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia
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Week 1: 12-4 straight up; 7-7-2 against the spread
Season: 12-4; 7-7-2
Friday, September 07, 2007
The Week 1 Picks
Sunday, September 9, 2007
The Match-up: Denver (-3.0) @ Buffalo
The Skinny: Buffalo’s run defense surrendered an average of 141 yards a game last year. And what to the Broncos do best?
Straight Up: Denver
Against the Spread: Denver
The Match-up: Miami (+3.0) @ Washington
The Skinny: Redskins QB Jason Campbell barely played in the pre-season due to a knee injury and RB Clinton Portis didn’t suit up at all. Yet Washington is still favored in this game. That should tell you all you need to know about the Dolphins.
Straight Up: Washington
Against the Spread: Washington
The Match-up: Pittsburgh (-4.5) @ Cleveland
The Skinny: I know the Browns are sitting Brady Quinn because they play some tough defenses, including the Steelers, early in the year. But why not throw the kid in the pool and see if he can swim? I’m hoping for a big week from Steelers RB Willie Parker, first round draft choice of the Northeast Box Company.
Straight Up: Pittsburgh
Against the Spread: Pittsburgh
The Match-up: Tennessee (+6.5) @ Jacksonville
The Skinny: Even though David Garrard edged out Byron Leftwich for the QB job in Jacksonville, I wouldn’t look for much of an aerial attack from the Jaguars. With runners like Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew, why throw it at all?
Straight Up: Jacksonville
Against the Spread: Jacksonville
The Match-up: Kansas City (+3.0) @ Houston
The Skinny: I know Damon Huard was 5-1 as a starter for the Chiefs last year, but the Kansas City offense is still one-dimensional, and that one dimension missed most of training camp due to a contract hold out. I can’t see the Chiefs stumping Matt Schaub and the Texans.
Straight Up: Houston
Against the Spread: Houston
The Match-up: Philadelphia (-3.0) @ Green Bay
The Skinny: Including the post-season, Eagles head coach Andy Reid is 5-1 lifetime against his former employer. Make that 6-1.
Straight Up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia
The Match-up: Carolina (+1.0) @ St. Louis
The Skinny: Panthers QB Jake Del-overrated went undrafted in my 12 team, 14 player Fantasy Football league. Just thought it was worth mentioning.
Straight Up: St. Louis
Against the Spread: St. Louis
The Match-up: Atlanta (+3.0) @ Minnesota
The Skinny: Let’s see, one team is my sleeper for 2007, and the other will start Joey Harrington in place of the con-Vick-ted felon they had a season ago. Minnesota’s defense is very underrated, and should impact this game one way or another.
Straight Up: Minnesota
Against the Spread: Minnesota
The Match-up: New England (-6.5) @ New York Jets
The Skinny: This is a scary game for the Pats on many fronts. Richard Seymour and Rodney Harrison are out. Asante Samuel and Randy Moss haven’t played in a while. And, Eric Mangini is extremely motivated to face his former boss, the uber-genius Bill Belichick. I don’t know if the Jets will win, but they’ll keep it interesting.
Straight Up: New England
Against the Spread: New York Jets
The Match-up: Tampa Bay (+6.0) @ Seattle
The Skinny: It seems that nobody is talking about in the Seahawks as an NFC contender, but they could change all that on Sunday.
Straight Up: Seattle
Against the Spread: Seattle
The Match-up: Detroit (+1.5) @ Oakland
The Skinny: Honestly, I never thought I’d be talking about a match-up between the "high-powered Detroit offense" and "mauling Oakland defense." In truth, it could be the Raiders offense (or lack thereof) that decides this game.
Straight Up: Detroit
Against the Spread: Detroit
The Match-up: Chicago (+6.0) @ San Diego
The Skinny: Let’s hope this potential Super Bowl preview is more entertaining than the one witnessed last night.
Straight Up: San Diego
Against the Spread: San Diego
The Match-up: New York Giants (+5.5) @ Dallas
The Skinny: Dallas WR Terry Glenn will miss the game with a bad knee, but I’m sure she’ll be fine in the long-term. Eli Manning always starts the season relatively well.
Straight Up: New York Giants
Against the Spread: New York Giants
Monday, September 10, 2007
The Match-up: Baltimore (+2.5) @ Cincinnati
The Skinny: The line tells me a lot here. The Ravens are widely viewed as one of the top five teams in the AFC, yet they’re an underdog in Cincinnati. Ocho Cinco and Ray Lewis have already been trash-talking.
Straight Up: Cincinnati
Against the Spread: Cincinnati
The Match-up: Arizona (+3.0) @ San Francisco
The Skinny: Showcase game for two of the league’s up-and-coming QB’s, Arizona’s Matt Leinart and San Francisco’s Alex Smith.
Straight Up: San Francisco
Against the Spread: San Francisco
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Week 1: 1-0 Straight up; 0-1 Against the Spread
Season: 1-0; 0-1
The Match-up: Denver (-3.0) @ Buffalo
The Skinny: Buffalo’s run defense surrendered an average of 141 yards a game last year. And what to the Broncos do best?
Straight Up: Denver
Against the Spread: Denver
The Match-up: Miami (+3.0) @ Washington
The Skinny: Redskins QB Jason Campbell barely played in the pre-season due to a knee injury and RB Clinton Portis didn’t suit up at all. Yet Washington is still favored in this game. That should tell you all you need to know about the Dolphins.
Straight Up: Washington
Against the Spread: Washington
The Match-up: Pittsburgh (-4.5) @ Cleveland
The Skinny: I know the Browns are sitting Brady Quinn because they play some tough defenses, including the Steelers, early in the year. But why not throw the kid in the pool and see if he can swim? I’m hoping for a big week from Steelers RB Willie Parker, first round draft choice of the Northeast Box Company.
Straight Up: Pittsburgh
Against the Spread: Pittsburgh
The Match-up: Tennessee (+6.5) @ Jacksonville
The Skinny: Even though David Garrard edged out Byron Leftwich for the QB job in Jacksonville, I wouldn’t look for much of an aerial attack from the Jaguars. With runners like Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew, why throw it at all?
Straight Up: Jacksonville
Against the Spread: Jacksonville
The Match-up: Kansas City (+3.0) @ Houston
The Skinny: I know Damon Huard was 5-1 as a starter for the Chiefs last year, but the Kansas City offense is still one-dimensional, and that one dimension missed most of training camp due to a contract hold out. I can’t see the Chiefs stumping Matt Schaub and the Texans.
Straight Up: Houston
Against the Spread: Houston
The Match-up: Philadelphia (-3.0) @ Green Bay
The Skinny: Including the post-season, Eagles head coach Andy Reid is 5-1 lifetime against his former employer. Make that 6-1.
Straight Up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia
The Match-up: Carolina (+1.0) @ St. Louis
The Skinny: Panthers QB Jake Del-overrated went undrafted in my 12 team, 14 player Fantasy Football league. Just thought it was worth mentioning.
Straight Up: St. Louis
Against the Spread: St. Louis
The Match-up: Atlanta (+3.0) @ Minnesota
The Skinny: Let’s see, one team is my sleeper for 2007, and the other will start Joey Harrington in place of the con-Vick-ted felon they had a season ago. Minnesota’s defense is very underrated, and should impact this game one way or another.
Straight Up: Minnesota
Against the Spread: Minnesota
The Match-up: New England (-6.5) @ New York Jets
The Skinny: This is a scary game for the Pats on many fronts. Richard Seymour and Rodney Harrison are out. Asante Samuel and Randy Moss haven’t played in a while. And, Eric Mangini is extremely motivated to face his former boss, the uber-genius Bill Belichick. I don’t know if the Jets will win, but they’ll keep it interesting.
Straight Up: New England
Against the Spread: New York Jets
The Match-up: Tampa Bay (+6.0) @ Seattle
The Skinny: It seems that nobody is talking about in the Seahawks as an NFC contender, but they could change all that on Sunday.
Straight Up: Seattle
Against the Spread: Seattle
The Match-up: Detroit (+1.5) @ Oakland
The Skinny: Honestly, I never thought I’d be talking about a match-up between the "high-powered Detroit offense" and "mauling Oakland defense." In truth, it could be the Raiders offense (or lack thereof) that decides this game.
Straight Up: Detroit
Against the Spread: Detroit
The Match-up: Chicago (+6.0) @ San Diego
The Skinny: Let’s hope this potential Super Bowl preview is more entertaining than the one witnessed last night.
Straight Up: San Diego
Against the Spread: San Diego
The Match-up: New York Giants (+5.5) @ Dallas
The Skinny: Dallas WR Terry Glenn will miss the game with a bad knee, but I’m sure she’ll be fine in the long-term. Eli Manning always starts the season relatively well.
Straight Up: New York Giants
Against the Spread: New York Giants
Monday, September 10, 2007
The Match-up: Baltimore (+2.5) @ Cincinnati
The Skinny: The line tells me a lot here. The Ravens are widely viewed as one of the top five teams in the AFC, yet they’re an underdog in Cincinnati. Ocho Cinco and Ray Lewis have already been trash-talking.
Straight Up: Cincinnati
Against the Spread: Cincinnati
The Match-up: Arizona (+3.0) @ San Francisco
The Skinny: Showcase game for two of the league’s up-and-coming QB’s, Arizona’s Matt Leinart and San Francisco’s Alex Smith.
Straight Up: San Francisco
Against the Spread: San Francisco
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Week 1: 1-0 Straight up; 0-1 Against the Spread
Season: 1-0; 0-1
Wednesday, September 05, 2007
Bombshells in New England and the Opening Night Pick
There's been a lot of news lately coming out of New England, and none of it has to do with anyone Tom Brady impregnated. For starters, DE Richard Seymour was placed on the Physically Unable to Perform (PUP) list, meaning he'll miss the first six weeks of the season. To make matters worse, S Rodney Harrison will be shelved for the first four after admitting to using performance-enhancing drugs. But the biggest shocker of all...the Patriots released WR Reche Caldwell! Needless to say, he was surprised...
For the love of God, someone please sign Reche Caldwell so I can keep using that picture!
********************************************************************
The NFL season officially starts tomorrow, with what should be an outstanding contest between the team that just climbed the mountain, and one of the leading contenders to knock them back down.
The Match-up: New Orleans (+6.0) @ Indianapolis
The Skinny: It's sort of a homecoming for both all-pro quarterbacks. Peyton Manning originally hails from New Orleans, and Drew Brees played his college ball at Purdue, about an hour away from Indianapolis. As for the game itself, here's an interesting trend: In each of the last three seasons, the defending Super Bowl champion has opened the season at home on Thursday...and won. Advantage, Indianapolis. The Saints, however, are 7-2 against the spread in their last nine road games. Advantage, Saints.
Straight up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: New Orleans
Up next - the rest of the Week 1 picks.
Saturday, September 01, 2007
2007-08 Season Preview
The NFL season kicks off in less than a week, and so it’s time for the annual season preview. To be honest, I had grander plans for this correspondence, but I really wasn’t satisfied with the quality of the piece. Maybe I’m burned out and couldn’t commit the time necessary to get my points across, or maybe I’m just tired of the constant Michael con-Vick-t coverage. Either way, the preview is a down and dirty look at the upcoming campaign, including division standings, conference champions, MVP, rookie and coach of the year, and of course, your Super Bowl XLII champions (and if you’re surprised that I’ve tabbed the Philadelphia Eagles to hoist the Lombardi Trophy in Arizona next February, well then you’re obviously new to this).
Without further ado, the 2007-08 Season Preview (* indicates playoff team).
American Football Conference
East
1. New England Patriots* – The Pats are loaded from top to bottom. Tom Brady’s got a cache of weapons, and Bill Belichick knows how to deploy them all. As long as Randy Moss isn’t divisive, New England will be hard to stop.
2. New York Jets – Thanks to a tougher schedule (and due credit to Eric Mangini’s rookie campaign), the Jets won’t sneak up on anyone this season.
3. Miami Dolphins – They’re adjusting to new coach and a new quarterback, but they return the same old defense. Maybe too old, but that’s to be determined.
4. Buffalo Bills – Marv Levy couldn’t keep any of their free agents, and subsequently the Bills have slipped. Personally, I think rookie RB Marshawn Lynch will flop.
North
1. Pittsburgh Steelers* – Under Omar Epps, the Steelers will be more balanced on offense, yet still menacing on defense. I think Pittsburgh is the team to beat in this division.
2. Baltimore Ravens* – The addition of RB Willis McGahee should be mutually beneficial. Baltimore’s defense led the league in turnover margin a year ago.
3. Cincinnati Bengals – Sadly, they still don’t have the defense to compliment their explosive offense. Ocho Cinco has promised to put on a show this year. I’ll be watching.
4. Cleveland Browns – The future is bright, but the present is cloudy. QB Brady Quinn should be starting by Week 4 (if not sooner).
South
1. Indianapolis Colts* – Yes, they lost a lot on defense, but they’re still the class of the division. Like Phil Mickelson after busting out and winning a major, Peyton Manning seems poised for multiple championships.
2. Jacksonville Jaguars – The Jags are a dangerous team, but not a deadly one. Seems like they should have done more by now, doesn’t it?
Note: Just as I was getting ready to publish, the news broke that the Jaguars would start David Garrard at QB and cut ties with Byron Leftwich. I don’t think that changes my order of finish in the division, but where Leftwich lands might. I better get this out before I have to re-write the whole thing.
3. Tennessee Titans – It’s a crying shame they didn’t do much to help Vince Young in the off-season. Looks like VY will have to carry them again.
4. Houston Texans – Houston is an offensive lineman or two away from climbing out of the cellar. So far, it looks like the Texans got the better of the Matt Schaub trade.
West
1. San Diego Chargers* – Widely regarded as the most talented on the field, the Chargers are breaking in a new coach and new coordinators. Will the new regime be able to do what the old one couldn’t? They’d better, or they won’t be able to justify canning 14-2 Marty Schottenheimer.
2. Denver Broncos* – A perennial playoff contender, the Broncos added RB Travis Henry, who is good when healthy, but that’s been the problem. Their defense is good enough to get them to the playoffs.
3. Kansas City Chiefs – Sorry, LJ, but history hasn’t been kind to 400+ carry running backs the year after. Plus, the Chiefs have unresolved issues at QB.
4. Oakland Raiders – Commitment to Rebuilding.
National Football Conference
East
1. Philadelphia Eagles* – QB Donovan McNabb is back, and with the emergence of RB Brian Westbrook as an every down back (told you), the offense is finally well-balanced. The defense should be better despite waiving vocal leader Jeremiah Trotter. The Birds still rule the roost in the NFC East.
2. New York Giants – It’s been an interesting off-season for the Giants. Tiki Barber retired, Mike Strahan may do the same, and Eli Manning hasn’t fulfilled his promise yet. Tom Coughlin looks like a lame duck.
3. Washington Redskins – They may finally have their QB in Jason Campbell, and they’re deep at running back with Clinton Portis and Ladell Betts. But their defense stinks, and even Tom Coughlin thinks Joe Gibbs is a lame duck.
4. Dallas Cowboys – They suck.
North
1. Chicago Bears* – If only their QB could hold on to the football.
2. Minnesota Vikings – The Vikes are my sleeper team, as first noted last December. They’re heaping a lot on QB Tavaris Jackson, who coach Brad Childress says reminds him of a young Donovan McNabb. That’s some high praise.
3. Detroit Lions – Lions QB Jon Kitna says they have the talent to win 10 games this season. I say, maybe they do, but no they won’t.
4. Green Bay Packers – Seriously, Brett. Feel free to ride off into that sunset any year now.
South
1. New Orleans Saints* – Like most, I was surprised by the Saints a year ago. Like many, I don’t think they were a flash in the pan. The Saints probably run the best offense in the NFL, and the rest of their division is down.
2. Carolina Panthers – The Panthers are easily the most enigmatic team in the NFL. They could be great, or they could tank. It will kind of depend on the play of QB Jake Del-overrated (or they guy who should be starting, David Carr).
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Is Jon Gruden on the hot seat in Tampa? If he is, I don’t know that a four-quarterback rotation is going to do anything to save him. Will the real Cadillac Williams please stand up?
4. Atlanta Falcons – They’ll be better off without a con-Vick-ted felon at quarterback. And they weren’t even that good last year.
West
1. St. Louis Rams* – In what may be the most balanced division in football, the Rams seemingly have it all on offense. And just enough on defense.
2. Seattle Seahawks* – This has been Seattle’s division to lose for the last three or four years. This year, I think they finally will.
3. San Francisco 49ers* – San Francisco is certainly on the way up – good young QB, stud RB, free agents galore on defense. But they’re about a year away from being a factor, especially in this division.
4. Arizona Cardinals – The Cardinals are everyone’s darling, the majority expecting them to make the playoffs. While I think they’ll be better, I’m not sure they’ll be in the running for the ultimate home game.
AFC Championship: New England over Indianapolis – Like a year ago, the Patriots and Colts are probably the two best teams in the AFC. Unlike a year ago (but as they’ve done so often in the past), the Pats will advance.
NFC Championship: Philadelphia over New Orleans – Another playoff rematch from 2007 with a different result. McNabb said it was time for the Eagles to "seal the deal." Winning the NFC is a step towards that deal.
Super Bowl XLII: Philadelphia over New England – At the risk of going Chris Berman (whose career evidently jumped the shark about three years ago), New England and Philly meet for the championship. The Eagles will exact some overdue revenge for Super Bowl XXXIV, and the city will claim its first title since 1983. That is, unless the Fightin’ Phils sneak into the playoffs and shock the world. More on this in a minute…
NFL MVP: Donovan McNabb, Philadelphia – McNabb was on an MVP-pace before shredding his knee last season. As he goes, so go the Birds, and that is the textbook definition of an MVP.
Coach of the Year: Bill Belichick, New England – As mentioned before, holding this team of talented players together will be harder than it seems, especially when one of those players hasn’t gotten along with anyone, anywhere in his career.
Rookie of the Year: Adrian Peterson, Minnesota – This kid is the real deal. I thought he should have won the Heisman Trophy his freshman year at Oklahoma. Injuries pushed him out of the spotlight a little bit, but he’s probably the most NFL-ready back to enter the league in recent memory.
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Coming soon - "Ant’s Expert NFL Picks." The picks are basically the meat and potatoes of this site. This will be year six of this little experiment that proves I am as qualified as an "Expert" as any of the talking heads you see on TV, or any of the writers you read. My lifetime record currently stands at 814-465-1 (.636) straight up and 649-613-18 (.514) against the spread.
And, as always, we will follow two general principles when making the picks:
1. I will ALWAYS pick the Eagles to win and cover, regardless of opponent or location.
2. I will NEVER pick Dallas to win or cover, regardless of opponent or location.
All other games will be picked objectively, without the same gimmicks you get from other sites. For instance, I don’t pick an "Upset of the Week." As I’ve said before, I won’t be forced to pick an upset just to meet some criteria. By the same token, I won’t name a "Lock of the Week." I think all of my picks are locks. Otherwise, I wouldn’t pick them. The same general disclaimer still applies – the picks are for entertainment purposes only. If you choose to bet money, your car, your house, or your kid, I won’t be held responsible for your losses. I will, however, accept kickbacks if you prosper.
********************************************************************
A quick baseball take before I go. The Phillies have used 18 pitchers this year and have had 29 players at one point or another on the disabled list, yet after completing a four-game sweep of the Mets, they sit only two games out of the NL East lead. Centerfielder Aaron Rowand, a member of the world champion Chicago White Sox in 2005, was asked if he got the same kind of feeling from this club as he did in 2005. He said he did, and quite frankly I do, too. This team reminds me of the ’93 club that just refused to give up, on a game or a season, regardless of the situation. Manager Charlie Manuel, who has taken his fair share of criticism, deserves a lot of the credit for holding this team together, and they never stopped believing.
What an October it could be in Philadelphia.
Without further ado, the 2007-08 Season Preview (* indicates playoff team).
American Football Conference
East
1. New England Patriots* – The Pats are loaded from top to bottom. Tom Brady’s got a cache of weapons, and Bill Belichick knows how to deploy them all. As long as Randy Moss isn’t divisive, New England will be hard to stop.
2. New York Jets – Thanks to a tougher schedule (and due credit to Eric Mangini’s rookie campaign), the Jets won’t sneak up on anyone this season.
3. Miami Dolphins – They’re adjusting to new coach and a new quarterback, but they return the same old defense. Maybe too old, but that’s to be determined.
4. Buffalo Bills – Marv Levy couldn’t keep any of their free agents, and subsequently the Bills have slipped. Personally, I think rookie RB Marshawn Lynch will flop.
North
1. Pittsburgh Steelers* – Under Omar Epps, the Steelers will be more balanced on offense, yet still menacing on defense. I think Pittsburgh is the team to beat in this division.
2. Baltimore Ravens* – The addition of RB Willis McGahee should be mutually beneficial. Baltimore’s defense led the league in turnover margin a year ago.
3. Cincinnati Bengals – Sadly, they still don’t have the defense to compliment their explosive offense. Ocho Cinco has promised to put on a show this year. I’ll be watching.
4. Cleveland Browns – The future is bright, but the present is cloudy. QB Brady Quinn should be starting by Week 4 (if not sooner).
South
1. Indianapolis Colts* – Yes, they lost a lot on defense, but they’re still the class of the division. Like Phil Mickelson after busting out and winning a major, Peyton Manning seems poised for multiple championships.
2. Jacksonville Jaguars – The Jags are a dangerous team, but not a deadly one. Seems like they should have done more by now, doesn’t it?
Note: Just as I was getting ready to publish, the news broke that the Jaguars would start David Garrard at QB and cut ties with Byron Leftwich. I don’t think that changes my order of finish in the division, but where Leftwich lands might. I better get this out before I have to re-write the whole thing.
3. Tennessee Titans – It’s a crying shame they didn’t do much to help Vince Young in the off-season. Looks like VY will have to carry them again.
4. Houston Texans – Houston is an offensive lineman or two away from climbing out of the cellar. So far, it looks like the Texans got the better of the Matt Schaub trade.
West
1. San Diego Chargers* – Widely regarded as the most talented on the field, the Chargers are breaking in a new coach and new coordinators. Will the new regime be able to do what the old one couldn’t? They’d better, or they won’t be able to justify canning 14-2 Marty Schottenheimer.
2. Denver Broncos* – A perennial playoff contender, the Broncos added RB Travis Henry, who is good when healthy, but that’s been the problem. Their defense is good enough to get them to the playoffs.
3. Kansas City Chiefs – Sorry, LJ, but history hasn’t been kind to 400+ carry running backs the year after. Plus, the Chiefs have unresolved issues at QB.
4. Oakland Raiders – Commitment to Rebuilding.
National Football Conference
East
1. Philadelphia Eagles* – QB Donovan McNabb is back, and with the emergence of RB Brian Westbrook as an every down back (told you), the offense is finally well-balanced. The defense should be better despite waiving vocal leader Jeremiah Trotter. The Birds still rule the roost in the NFC East.
2. New York Giants – It’s been an interesting off-season for the Giants. Tiki Barber retired, Mike Strahan may do the same, and Eli Manning hasn’t fulfilled his promise yet. Tom Coughlin looks like a lame duck.
3. Washington Redskins – They may finally have their QB in Jason Campbell, and they’re deep at running back with Clinton Portis and Ladell Betts. But their defense stinks, and even Tom Coughlin thinks Joe Gibbs is a lame duck.
4. Dallas Cowboys – They suck.
North
1. Chicago Bears* – If only their QB could hold on to the football.
2. Minnesota Vikings – The Vikes are my sleeper team, as first noted last December. They’re heaping a lot on QB Tavaris Jackson, who coach Brad Childress says reminds him of a young Donovan McNabb. That’s some high praise.
3. Detroit Lions – Lions QB Jon Kitna says they have the talent to win 10 games this season. I say, maybe they do, but no they won’t.
4. Green Bay Packers – Seriously, Brett. Feel free to ride off into that sunset any year now.
South
1. New Orleans Saints* – Like most, I was surprised by the Saints a year ago. Like many, I don’t think they were a flash in the pan. The Saints probably run the best offense in the NFL, and the rest of their division is down.
2. Carolina Panthers – The Panthers are easily the most enigmatic team in the NFL. They could be great, or they could tank. It will kind of depend on the play of QB Jake Del-overrated (or they guy who should be starting, David Carr).
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Is Jon Gruden on the hot seat in Tampa? If he is, I don’t know that a four-quarterback rotation is going to do anything to save him. Will the real Cadillac Williams please stand up?
4. Atlanta Falcons – They’ll be better off without a con-Vick-ted felon at quarterback. And they weren’t even that good last year.
West
1. St. Louis Rams* – In what may be the most balanced division in football, the Rams seemingly have it all on offense. And just enough on defense.
2. Seattle Seahawks* – This has been Seattle’s division to lose for the last three or four years. This year, I think they finally will.
3. San Francisco 49ers* – San Francisco is certainly on the way up – good young QB, stud RB, free agents galore on defense. But they’re about a year away from being a factor, especially in this division.
4. Arizona Cardinals – The Cardinals are everyone’s darling, the majority expecting them to make the playoffs. While I think they’ll be better, I’m not sure they’ll be in the running for the ultimate home game.
AFC Championship: New England over Indianapolis – Like a year ago, the Patriots and Colts are probably the two best teams in the AFC. Unlike a year ago (but as they’ve done so often in the past), the Pats will advance.
NFC Championship: Philadelphia over New Orleans – Another playoff rematch from 2007 with a different result. McNabb said it was time for the Eagles to "seal the deal." Winning the NFC is a step towards that deal.
Super Bowl XLII: Philadelphia over New England – At the risk of going Chris Berman (whose career evidently jumped the shark about three years ago), New England and Philly meet for the championship. The Eagles will exact some overdue revenge for Super Bowl XXXIV, and the city will claim its first title since 1983. That is, unless the Fightin’ Phils sneak into the playoffs and shock the world. More on this in a minute…
NFL MVP: Donovan McNabb, Philadelphia – McNabb was on an MVP-pace before shredding his knee last season. As he goes, so go the Birds, and that is the textbook definition of an MVP.
Coach of the Year: Bill Belichick, New England – As mentioned before, holding this team of talented players together will be harder than it seems, especially when one of those players hasn’t gotten along with anyone, anywhere in his career.
Rookie of the Year: Adrian Peterson, Minnesota – This kid is the real deal. I thought he should have won the Heisman Trophy his freshman year at Oklahoma. Injuries pushed him out of the spotlight a little bit, but he’s probably the most NFL-ready back to enter the league in recent memory.
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Coming soon - "Ant’s Expert NFL Picks." The picks are basically the meat and potatoes of this site. This will be year six of this little experiment that proves I am as qualified as an "Expert" as any of the talking heads you see on TV, or any of the writers you read. My lifetime record currently stands at 814-465-1 (.636) straight up and 649-613-18 (.514) against the spread.
And, as always, we will follow two general principles when making the picks:
1. I will ALWAYS pick the Eagles to win and cover, regardless of opponent or location.
2. I will NEVER pick Dallas to win or cover, regardless of opponent or location.
All other games will be picked objectively, without the same gimmicks you get from other sites. For instance, I don’t pick an "Upset of the Week." As I’ve said before, I won’t be forced to pick an upset just to meet some criteria. By the same token, I won’t name a "Lock of the Week." I think all of my picks are locks. Otherwise, I wouldn’t pick them. The same general disclaimer still applies – the picks are for entertainment purposes only. If you choose to bet money, your car, your house, or your kid, I won’t be held responsible for your losses. I will, however, accept kickbacks if you prosper.
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A quick baseball take before I go. The Phillies have used 18 pitchers this year and have had 29 players at one point or another on the disabled list, yet after completing a four-game sweep of the Mets, they sit only two games out of the NL East lead. Centerfielder Aaron Rowand, a member of the world champion Chicago White Sox in 2005, was asked if he got the same kind of feeling from this club as he did in 2005. He said he did, and quite frankly I do, too. This team reminds me of the ’93 club that just refused to give up, on a game or a season, regardless of the situation. Manager Charlie Manuel, who has taken his fair share of criticism, deserves a lot of the credit for holding this team together, and they never stopped believing.
What an October it could be in Philadelphia.
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