The Week 3 Picks

Ah, Week 3, where wide-spread speculation about a team based merely on off-season acquisitions and potential is replaced by actual analysis of real game action. That said, here are a few quick hit observations from the first two weeks of NFL 2005:

-- A 2-0 start does not immediately grant a team “contender” status: Yes, the Bengals and Redskins have looked impressive out of the gates. No, they won’t be facing each other in Detroit on February 5th, 2006.
-- Conversely, an 0-2 record does not signify impending doom. The 2003 Philadelphia Eagles started 0-2 and still went on to win their division and reach the NFC championship game. Keep the faith, Chargers fan!
-- Has there been a more disappointing team thus far than the Minnesota Vikings? Maybe they’re not the most improved team in the league.
-- Speaking of Minnesota, Daunte Culpepper has as many TD passes this year as I do.
-- Another superstar QB whose numbers are down, Peyton Manning has only thrown two TD’s in two games. Captain Math tells us he’s on pace to finsh with 16 scoring tosses this year. I’m willing to bet my “Expert” status that he’ll end up with more than that this year.
-- Can I get a mulligan on my Offensive Rookie of the Year prediction? Through two games, Tampa Bay’s Carnell “Cadillac” Williams sure looks like the real deal.

Anyway, on to the business at hand. Last week’s records: 11-5 straight up (19-13 cumulative), 8-7-1 against the spread (16-15-1). We’re starting to feel it just in time for the first bye week of the year. So as Baltimore, Detroit, Houston and Washington sit at home, we roll on…

The Match-up: Carolina (-3.0) @ Miami
The Skinny: You can call this the Cyndi Lauper Bowl, because it features two teams that have seen both sides of the spectrum thus far. Carolina lost at home to New Orleans in Week 1, then upset the defending champion Patriots a week ago. Miami shocked everybody by stomping Denver in Nick Saban's debut, then only managed seven points in a loss to the Jets last week. So which team will show their true colors in Week 3? Get it, Cyndi Lauper, "True Colors?" Come on, people. Mix in some VH1.
Straight up: Carolina
Against the Spread: Carolina

The Match-up: New Orleans (+4.0) @ Minnesota
The Skinny: America's new team, the Saints, plays its third straight road game (don't let last week's "home" date with the Giants fool you). Say what you want about their resiliency, but the Saints have got to be tired of all this traveling. The Vikings are down, and now key players like Michael Bennett and Nate Burleson are starting to get dinged up. This is exactly the kind of game that the Vikings will win. It'll be close, but I like the Vikes to get off the schneid.
Straight up: Minnesota
Against the Spread: New Orleans

The Match-up: Jacksonville (+2.5) @ New York Jets
The Skinny: Byron Leftwich is a tough s.o.b. I was impressed by his ability to take shot after devastating shot and keep getting up and playing. Reminded me of that game back at Marshall when a couple of his linemen literally had to carry him to the line of scrimmage because he basically couldn't walk. How do you bet against a guy like that?
Straight up: Jacksonville
Against the Spread: Jacksonville

The Match-up: Oakland (+8.0) @ Philadelphia
The Skinny: Come Sunday afternoon, the Raiders could be the best 0-3 team in the league. Talk about a tough schedule out of the gate - at New England, vs. Kansas City, now at Philadelphia. I mean, that's three bona fide contenders in three weeks. My guess is that Darth Raider won't be sending Paul Tagliabue a Christmas card this year.
Straight up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia

The Match-up: Atlanta (off) @ Buffalo
The Skinny: Literally, a coin toss game. Ron Mexico is questionable with a hamstring injury, which might actually help Atlanta (seeing as Buffalo's run defense is very good and Mexico's back up, Matt Schaub, is a better passer). I think Mexico will play, but the Bills will steal a win.
Straight up: Buffalo
Against the Spread: Buffalo

The Match-up: Cincinnati (-3.0) @ Chicago
The Skinny: The match-up everyone will talk about is the explosive offense of theBengals facing the stout Bears defense. But they'll probably cancel each other out. Plain and simple, this game will be decided by the ability of the Bears to run the ball with Thomas Jones, control the clock, and keep Carson Palmer and the Cincinnati offense standing on the sidelines.
Straight up: Chicago
Against the Spread: Chicago

The Match-up: Tampa Bay (-3.5) @ Green Bay
The Skinny: I was only half-kidding when I said last week's Cleveland/Green Bay game was a battle for the first pick in next year's draft. But looking at the other teams in the league, is there a team in more trouble than the Packers? I'm guessing this isn't what Brett Favre had in mind when he signed on for this year.
Straight up: Tampa Bay
Against the Spread: Tampa Bay

The Match-up: Cleveland (+13.5) @ Indianapolis
The Skinny: If the Colts scored 55 points in this game, would you be surprised? Me neither. I'm very impressed with Indy's defense to this point in time. They sure look like a complete team, maybe the best in the AFC (sorry Pittsburgh and New England).
Straight up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Indianapolis

The Match-up: Tennessee (+6.5) @ St. Louis
The Skinny: Remember when these two teams played one of the best Super Bowls in recent memory? That was a great game. This one, most likely, will not be. St. Louis has historically been a great team at home on that turf.
Straight up: St. Louis
Against the Spread: St. Louis

The Match-up: Dallas (-6.5) @ San Francisco
The Skinny: Wasn't it fun watching the Cowboys fall asleep at the wheel last week and cough up a 13-point lead in the last 3:46 against Washington? To all you Dallas fans out there, that was Mark Brunell throwing the ball over your secondary's head. Just wanted to remind you of that.
Straight up: San Francisco
Against the Spread: San Francisco

The Match-up: Arizona (+6.5) @ Seattle
The Skinny: Always looking for new and exciting ways to lose football games, the Cardinals may have outdone themselves last week. With no time outs remaining, the Cards marched into field goal range, then Kurt Warner was sacked. Rather than spiking the ball and stopping the clock with about 20 seconds to go and perhaps kicking the tying field goal, Warner tried to call a play. The clock ran down to 7 seconds, and the Cards were flagged for a false start. The penalty carried a ten-second run-off, thus the game ended with Arizona on the short end of the score. Only the Cardinals.
Straight up: Seattle
Against the Spread: Seattle

The Match-up: New England (+3.0) @ Pittsburgh
The Skinny: I really wanted to take the Steelers, because I think they are a solid, solid football team. But then I started looking at the numbers and realized that even with last week's loss to Carolina, the Patriots are 35-5 over their last 40 games (including playoffs). Anyone recall the last time the Pats lost consecutive games? Exactly.
Straight up: New England
Against the Spread: New England

The Match-up: New York Giants (+5.5) @ San Diego
The Skinny: Eli Manning's first game in San Diego comes this Sunday, about 13 months later than Chargers fans thought when they drafted his first overall in 2004. The Giants have opened some eyes in the NFC, but it's the 0-2 Chargers who are in desperate need of a win. I do like San Diego to win at home, but I also like Eli and the Giants to keep it close throughout.
Straight up: San Diego
Against the Spread: New York Giants

The Match-up: Kansas City (+3.0) @ Denver
The Skinny: I'm having a hard time figuring the Broncos out this year. This week, I'll solicit a little help from the Vegas odds-makers. Denver, a team that was embarrassed in Miami in Week 1 and barely squeaked by San Diego a week ago is favored over 2-0 Kansas City? There has to be a reason for that.
Straight up: Denver
Against the Spread: Denver

The Week 2 Picks

Week 1 was full of surprises, to say the least. Who could have figured that Miami would stomp Denver like that? I mean, did they bring Dan Marino, Mark Duper, Mark Clayton and Mercury Morris out of retirement or something? ESPN Magazine picked the Vikings to win the Super Bowl this year, yet they get embarrassed at home by Tampa Bay? St. Louis and Carolina also fell in Week 1, meaning all three players in my suicide pool have already, well, died.

In the immortal words of former Packers coach Vince Lombardi: "What the hell's going on out here?"

When the dust all settled, all I had to show for it was an 8-8 record both ways. Not great, but with all those land mines out there, not all that bad either. Here's hoping Week 2 is much more predictable.

The Match-up: New England (-3.0) @ Carolina
The Skinny: There's always one game a week that you can go back and forth on. I really like Carolina this year, but the Patriots are consistently among the league's elite. The game is in Charlotte, but the Panthers are already down a man, with DT Kris Jenkins out for the season. Even if Carolina was 100% healthy, I'd still probably take the Pats.
Straight Up: New England
Against the Spread: New England

The Match-up: Pittsburgh (-6.0) @ Houston
The Skinny: I know Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger is questionable with a bum knee, and the prospect of Tommy Maddox starting does scare me a little bit. Not enough to make me bet against Pittsburgh and that defense, but still its not a slam dunk. So is Pittsburgh RB Willie Parker the next Jerome Bettis, or the next Amos Zereoue? To be determined, I guess.
Straight up: Pittsburgh
Against the Spread: Pittsburgh

The Match-up: Baltimore (-3.5) @ Tennessee
The Skinny: Kyle Boller's injury may end up being a blessing in disguise. Anthony Wright will start at QB for Baltimore this week, and the Ravens offense seemed to flow a little bit better with Wright and the helm. Tennessee got thumped by a Steelers team that was without Jerome Bettis and Duce Staley last week, with Willie Parker running for 160 yards and Ben Roethlisberger scoring a perfect QB rating. The Titans' reward? A fired up Ravens defense that can ill-afford to fall to 0-2. I love Baltimore this week.
Straight Up: Baltimore
Against the Spread: Baltimore

The Match-up: Jacksonville (+9.0) @ Indianapolis
The Skinny: Interesting divisional match-up with the underrated Jaguars defense forced to contend with a Colts offense that hung 24 on Baltimore last week. The game could be decided by the ability of the Jags' offense to move the ball against a very good Indy D. The game will be close, but the Colts will pull away late.
Straight Up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Indianapolis

The Match-up: San Francisco (off) @ Philadelphia
The Skinny: No need to push the panic button in Philly. Yes, they lost on Monday, but they escaped without major injury (Donovan McNabb will start this week despite the bruised sternum). And even without Jeremiah Trotter and with David "Automatic" Akers missing two field goals, the Eagles were driving at the end with a chance to win the game. The Eagles are at home against San Francisco and Oakland in the next two weeks, so they'll be 2-1 on Sept. 19th.
Straight Up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia

The Match-up: Detroit (-1.5) @ Chicago
The Skinny: I told you at the beginning of this thing that I would only pick an upset where I felt it was warranted. Well, it's time. Yes, Detroit won at home last week (albeit against Green Bay, who looked absolutely awful), and the Bears lost a tight one at Washington. But I like Chicago to win at home this week.
Straight Up: Chicago
Against the Spread: Chicago

The Match-up: Minnesota (+3.0) @ Cincinnati
The Skinny: No way the Vikings go to 0-2, right? No way Daunte Culpepper has another game like that, right? If it sounds like I'm trying to convince myself, you may be right. I've got it in my head that the Vikings are the better team here, so I'm going with Minnesota.
Straight Up: Minnesota
Against the Spread: Minnesota

The Match-up: Buffalo (+2.5) @ Tampa Bay
The Skinny: The Bucs pulled off one of the Week 1 shockers, knocking off the Vikings in the Homerdome. Brian Griese continues to play well, and Carnell "Cadillac" Williams made an early statement as the rookie of the year. A good early test for Tampa's revamped offense comes on Sunday against the Bills. Tight game, but I'll go with Tampa at home.
Straight Up: Tampa Bay
Against the Spread: Tampa Bay

The Match-up: St. Louis (+1.0) @ Arizona
The Skinny: One of these NFC West powers (no, seriously) will be 0-2 after this week. St. Louis was embarrassed in San Francisco, falling behind 28-9 before rallying to only lose by three. Arizona, on the other hand, flew across the country and gave up 42 to the Giants. St. Louis has been dreadful on the road lately, but I can't bring myself to take the Cards.
Straight Up: St. Louis
Against the Spread: St. Louis

The Match-up: Atlanta (+1.0) @ Seattle
The Skinny: This line should tell me something, but I'm having a hard time getting it. The Falcons are 1-0 having just survived their Monday night battle with the Eagles, and the Seahawks lost in Jacksonville. But Seattle is favored by a point? All signs tell me to pick the 'Hawks, but I just can't bring myself to do it.
Straight Up: Atlanta
Against the Spread: Atlanta

The Match-up: Cleveland (+6.5) @ Green Bay
The Skinny: Sad to say, but this may be the battle for the top pick in the 2006 draft. Let's start with the Packers, who not only lost a game last week but lost their best WR Javon Walker for the season as well. As for the Browns, they also fell last week, and were never really in the game with Cincinnati. I won't believe the Packers really are this bad unless they do something like, I don't know, lose at home to Cleveland. No way that happens, right?
Straight Up: Green Bay
Against the Spread: Green Bay

The Match-up: Miami (+6.0) @ New York Jets
The Skinny: Dan Marino, uh, I mean Gus Frerotte led the Fish to a 34-10 stomping of the Broncos in Week 1, and now they take the air show on the road to New York, where Chad Fumble-ton and the Jets await. The Jets played hot potato with the football in Kansas City a week ago, coughing it up 6 times. They'll be better this week (because they can't really be worse), but Miami's defense keeps them in it. This could be a field goal battle, thus six points is about 4 too many for me to take the Jets.
Straight Up: New York Jets
Against the Spread: Miami

The Match-up: San Diego (+3.0) @ Denver
The Skinny: Another battle between 0-1 division foes. The Chargers hope to get a boost from the return of Antonio Gates (think he would have helped their goal line offense against Dallas last week?), and they still have LaDanian Tomlinson to hand the ball to. Denver needs a better game from Jake Plummer, who personally turned the ball over three times in the second half against Miami. This time, the line does tell me something. Denver must be favored for a reason. I like the Broncos the get into the win column as the '04 AFC West champs fall to 0-2.
Straight Up: Denver
Against the Spread: Denver

The Match-up: Kansas City (-1.5) @ Oakland
The Skinny: How many points will it take to win this game? 35? 38? 42? Who knows? The bottom line is that both of these offenses can move the ball up and down the field. The defense that can step up and make plays will determine who wins this game. Personally, I like the Chiefs for two reasons. One, they have the better defense. Two, the Raiders haven't played in a week and a half, so they may be rusty. Kansas City is the pick.
Straight Up: Kansas City
Against the Spread: Kansas City

The Match-up: New York Giants (-3.0) @ New Orleans
The Skinny: Monday Night Football, Part I kicks off at 7:30 Monday night, with the 1-0 Saints hosting the 1-0 Giants. Except that the game will be played in New York. New Orleans pulled off a big upset last week, winning in Carolina. The Giants scored two TD's on kick returns in their win over Arizona. No doubt special teams will be a focus this week. I got burned by New Orleans last week, so I hope they don't burn me again, because I'm taking the Giants on the road (sort of) over New Orleans.
Straight Up: New York Giants
Against the Spread: New York Giants

The Match-up: Washington (+6.0) @ Dallas
The Skinny: Monday Night Football, Part II goes off at 9:00, with the Cowboys hosting the Redskins. Dallas will induct Troy Aikman, Emmitt Smith, and Michael Irvin in their ring of honor prior to kick off, and here's hoping that's the highlight of the evening for Cowboys fans. Mark Brunell will start for Washington, and their defense will put pressure Drew Bledsoe. Surprise, surprise, I'm taking the 'Skins in an upset.
Straight Up: Washington
Against the Spread: Washington

The Week 1 Picks

One game into the season, and The Kid is still undefeated. Maybe I should resign now...nah. The Patriots outlasted Oakland on Thursday, and did so by 10 points, thus a win and a cover, and we're off and running. I'll try to keep the momentum going with the rest of the Week 1 picks.

The Match-up: Houston (+4.5) @ Buffalo
The Skinny: The Buffalo Bills have the good fortune of giving new quarterback J.P. Losman his first NFL start at home against the Houston Texans. This game features two of the game's most exciting young running backs, Houston's Domanick Davis and Buffalo's Willis McGahee. The difference in this one should be the Bills defense, which looks to pick up right where they left off at the end of the 2004 campaign. I like the Bills to open the J.P. Losman era with a win over Houston.
Straight Up: Buffalo
Against the Spread: Buffalo

The Match-up: Chicago (+6.0) @ Washington
The Skinny: The Redskins host the Bears in a game that features two teams with a similar profile - good defense, a lot to prove on offense. Both offenses should revolve around the running game, which leaves Washington and Clinton Portis an advantage. But the defenses should keep the game tight. The 'Skins will win it, but it will be closer than you'd think.
Straight Up: Washington
Against the Spread: Chicago

The Match-up: Cincinnati (-3.5) @ Cleveland
The Skinny: The first installment of the 2005 version of the "Battle of Ohio" goes down on Sunday. The Browns, who have not been able to rebuild since being reinvented a few years ago, but they may be on the right track by hiring defensive-minded Romeo Crennel as their head coach. The Bengals did something similar a few years ago with Marvin Lewis, and they've been respectable. Cleveland may get there, too, but they're not there yet.
Straight Up: Cincinnati
Against the Spread: Cincinnati

The Match-up: New Orleans (+7.0) @ Carolina
The Skinny: Will the New Orleans Saints, in the wake of the damage caused to their area by Hurricane Katrina, become the feel-good story of the 2005 season? Maybe, but not against a team as strong as the Carolina Panthers.
Straight Up: Carolina
Against the Spread: Carolina

The Match-up: Seattle (+3.0) @ Jacksonville
The Skinny: Jacksonville's new vertical passing game debuts at home against what looks to be an accomodating defense. Byron Leftwich should have all day to find his targets downfield, and when he can't, he'll be able to dump the ball of to Fred Taylor. The priority for Jacksonville's defense is a simple one - contain Shaun Alexander. Easier said than done, but if they can do that, they can win this game.
Straight Up: Jacksonville
Against the Spread: Jacksonville

The Match-up: New York Jets (+3.0) @ Kansas City
The Skinny: Some people are talking about the Jets as a dark horse pick to unseat the Patriots atop the AFC East, yet they're an underdog? Granted, they're on the road and Arrowhead Stadium is a tough place to play, but still. Personally, I don't see the Jets being a threat to New England. They should, however, beat Kansas City.
Straight Up: New York Jets
Against the Spread: New York Jets

The Match-up: Denver (-5.0) @ Miami
The Skinny: How dire is the quarterback situation in Miami? Well, Gus Frerotte is the starter, if that gives you any indication. On top of that, his back up is Sage Rosenfels. It could be another long year for the Fish. Jake Plummer and the Broncos will start the season off on the right foot.
Straight Up: Denver
Against the Spread: Denver

The Match-up: Tampa Bay (+6.0) @ Minnesota
The Skinny: Former division rivals hook up in the Metrodome on Sunday, and the Vikings have certainly garnered some attention from the national media, some picking them to go all the way. I do think Minnesota will be one of the best in the NFC. The Bucs, on the other hand, will not. "Culpepper to Burleson" is the new phrase that pays, and the Vikes open with a big win.
Straight Up: Minnesota
Against the Spread: Minnesota

The Match-up: Tennessee (+7.0) @ Pittsburgh
The Skinny: The Steelers finished 15-1 last season, but stumbled at the end, losing at home to the eventual-champion Patriots in the AFC title game. This season, Pittsburgh will be on a mission to finish the job, and that starts in Week 1 with former AFC power Tennessee. Injuries to Duce Staley and Jerome Bettis might be a factor against a New England or Indy, but shouldn't be against the Titans.
Straight Up: Pittsburgh
Against the Spread: Pittsburgh

The Match-up: St. Louis (-5.5) @ San Francisco
The Skinny: It's a new era in San Francisco, with new coach Mike Nolan and top draft pick Alex Smith set to debut on Sunday. The problem is, neither one of them will be on the field. St. Louis comes to town and looks strong behind QB Marc Bulger, WR's Isaac Bruce and Torry Holt, and RB Steven Jackson (who I think will have a big game). The Rams will win in a blowout.
Straight Up: St. Louis
Against the Spread: St. Louis

The Match-up: Green Bay (+3.0) @ Detroit
The Skinny: The first test for the new and improved Lions comes at home against the old and inferior Packers. The game plan to beat Detroit (as I see it, anyway) is to gang up on the run, shut down Kevin Jones, and make Joey Harrington beat you with his arm. Problem for Green Bay is they don't have the defense to execute the plan. Besides, Brett Favre seems to struggle in domes. All that said, I like the Lions to keep the Ford Field roof closed and knock off the Pack.
Straight Up: Detroit
Against the Spread: Detroit

The Match-up: Arizona (+2.5) @ New York Giants
The Skinny: Another line I don't really understand. I thought everybody was in love with the Cardinals, that they were going to win the West, and that Kurt Warner was resurrected and would lead Arizona to prominence. So how are they a dog at the mediocre-at-best Giants? I like New York in this one.
Straight Up: New York Giants
Against the Spread: New York Giants

The Match-up: Dallas (+4.5) @ San Diego
The Skinny: Pop quiz for all the new readers - how will Ant pick in this one? a) Dallas to win on the road; b) The Chargers to win by a field goal, so take the Cowboys and the points; c) San Diego, simply because they're playing Dallas. The correct answer, of course, is 'c.' If you guessed another answer, you've got problems.
Straight Up: San Diego
Against the Spread: San Diego

The Match-up: Indianapolis (-3.0) @ Baltimore
The Skinny: Perhaps the most intriguing match up of the weekend is a preview of my predicted AFC Championship game this year, with the Ravens hosting the Colts. This will be the best game of the weekend, in my estimation. and even though Indianapolis is my pick to win the AFC, something in my gut tells me that Baltimore will flat out win this game. Don't ask me why.
Straight Up: Baltimore
Against the Spread: Baltimore

The Match-up: Philadelphia (-1.5) @ Atlanta
The Skinny: In a rematch of the NFC Title game, the Eagles head to Atlanta to take on Ron Mexico and the Falcons. The good news for the Eagles is that apparently T.O. and Donovan McNabb have reconciled and have their sites set on the common goal of winning the Super Bowl. The bad news is that RB Brian Westbrook is the newest disgruntled Eagle, having broken off long-term contract talks. As always amidst the turmoil, the question is can they put the off-the-field b.s. aside and just win football games. Yes they can, and yes they will, starting with a Monday night victory over Atlanta.
Straight Up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia

Sept. 8th - Oakland @ New England

Before I get to the game, I feel the need to review a few caveats that I live by when it comes to making the picks.

For starters, I am not sanctioned by the NFL, which means I need not be impartial. In other words, I will pick the Eagles straight up and against the spread every week regardless of opponent. Conversely, I will never, EVER pick Dallas. Ever. Under no circumstances. It's a formula that has worked for me in the past. Just trust me.

Speaking of trusting me, the picks are intended for entertainment purposes only. If you choose to use this information as a basis to feed your gambling habit, don't come crying to me when you lose. I may be an "Expert," but I'm not perfect.

Finally, I don't employ gimmicks like some of the writers at other publications do. Some of these dopes pick a "Lock of the Week," or an "Upset Special." Personally, I think all of my picks are locks (or else I wouldn't pick them). And some weeks, there may be an upset I like, while others there may not. I'm not going to pick an upset just to satisfy a weekly quota.

All that said, the 2005-06 season is less than 48 hours from commencement, kicking off with...

The Match-up: Oakland (+7.5) @ New England
The Skinny: The NFL's newest tradition is having the defending Super Bowl champions open at home on the Thursday of opening weekend. And so it's the Patriots (again) hosting the rebuilt offense of the Oakland Raiders. Oakland's biggest moves in the off-season were on the offensive side of the ball, trading for enigmatic WR Randy Moss and signing RB Lamont Jordan as a free agent. Their defense, however, is still suspect. New England will attempt to carry on minus offensive coordinator Charlie Weis (now the head coach at Notre Dame) and defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel (manning the sidelines in Cleveland). They also lost LB Tedy Bruschi, who suffered a stroke and will not play this year. Not to go all Stephen A. Smith on you, but they still have Tom Brady, and quite frankly...ah, let's not go there. The key to this game will be the ability of the Patriots defense to neutralize Oakland's big play ability. Bill Belichick is one of the best game-plan coaches in the NFL, and he has had success in shutting down high-scoring offenses (i.e., the Indianapolis Colts). Corey Dillon will run for about 120 yards and 2 TD's and the Patriots will open their title defense with a win over the Raiders.
Straight Up: New England
Against the Spread: New England

Carve 'em in Stone - The Predictions

Division Winners
AFC East: New England
AFC North: Baltimore
AFC South: Indianapolis
AFC West: San Diego
Wild Cards: Buffalo, Pittsburgh

NFC East: Philadelphia
NFC North: Minnesota
NFC South: Carolina
NFC West: St. Louis
Wild Cards: Atlanta, Dallas

AFC Championship
Indianapolis over Baltimore - This is finally the year that the Colts get over the hump. Their offense is still as explosive as ever, and they've done enough to improve their defense via the draft and free agency (including recently added DT Corey Simon) to make them the most complete team in the conference. Peyton Manning finally sheds the "can't win the big game" label, and Indianapolis wins the AFC.

NFC Championship
Philadelphia over Carolina - The Eagles have been one of the most consistent teams in the entire league. Despite all of the off-the-field drama that plagues this team in the off-season, they are still the best team in the NFC. Barring an injury to one of the big three (McNabb, T.O., or Westbrook), the Eagles will return to the Super Bowl.

Super Bowl XL
Philadelphia over Indianapolis (If you're surprised, you're obviously new to this) - Playing the role of the Patriots, the Eagles defense manages to frustrate Manning enough, applying pressure and forcing him to throw two costly interceptions. McNabb hits Owens for a 46 yard TD to seal the deal for Philly. Afterwards, Owens and McNabb hug, then McNabb accepts the super Bowl MVP trophy before barfing up a lung. Meanwhile, Owens strips down to a camouflage tank top and does sit-ups on the Ford Field podium.

Individual Awards
Most Valuable Player: Donovan McNabb, Philadelphia Eagles - I struggled with this one for a long time. The easy pick would have been Peyton Manning, but I don't know if he'll have numbers like he did a year ago (which voters might view as a down year). Instead, I'll go with the guy who I want to win the award, and '5' is my guy. (Honorable Mention - Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts; LaDanian Tomlinson, San Diego Chargers)

Coach of the Year: Andy Reid, Philadelphia Eagles - Reid's reward for managing to keep the Eagles on track throughout the whole circus atmosphere surrounding his team garners him his second coach of the year award. (Honorable Mention - Jon Fox, Carolina Panthers; Jim Mora, Jr., Atlanta Falcons; Mike Mularkey, Buffalo Bills)

Offensive Player of the Year: LaDanian Tomlinson, San Diego Chargers - Tomlinson said before the season that his goal for the 2005 season was 2,200 rushing yards. I'm not saying he'll get there, but he is the man. (Honorable Mention: Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts; Terrell Owens, Philadelphia Eagles)

Defensive Player of the Year: Julius Peppers, Carolina Panthers - Peppers has won the award before, but looks stronger and yet somehow faster this season. He can rush the passer, stop the run, or cover a tight end or a back out of the backfield. (Honorable Mention: Ray Lewis, Baltimore Ravens; Ed Reed, Baltimore Ravens; Takeo Spikes, Buffalo Bills)

Offensive Rookie of the Year: J.J. Arrington, Arizona Cardinals - He wasn't the first running back selected in the draft (he wasn't second or third, either). But he may be the best of the bunch, and he'll start right away in Dennis Green's three wide receiver offense, which means Arrington should make the biggest splash. (Honorable Mention: Mike Williams, Detroit Lions; Carnell Williams, Tampa Bay Buccaneers)

Defensive Rookie of the Year: Derrick Johnson, Kansas City Chiefs - Like Arrington, Johnson will start immediately. He's a fast, sideline-to-sideline LB who has perfected a tackling technique designed to force fumbles. He'll make a name for himself quickly. (Honorable Mention - Thomas Davis, Carolina Panthers; Antrel Rolle, Arizona Cardinals)

Sleeper Team: Buffalo Bills - Prior to Rex Grossman's injury, I had the Chicago Bears in this spot. And I know J.P. Losman isn't exactly seasoned, but I give the Bills the nod because of the talent around Losman. McGahee, Moulds and Evans comprise a solid supporting staff, thus I think the Bills will surprise a few people and make the playoffs this year.