Last weekend was interesting.
Let’s start with the fact that I attended the Eagles-Bears game in Philly courtesy of my buddy Long Legs, who hooked us up with some sweet seats. We had such a good view that I could see first-hand just how mediocre the Eagles receivers really are. Reggie Brown and Kevin Curtis both dropped balls, Brown’s a sure touchdown that could have rendered Chicago’s 97-yard game-winning drive irrelevant. As it is, the Birds are 2-4, head to Minnesota this weekend, then host Dallas the following Sunday.
In case you couldn’t already tell, the sky is falling in Philadelphia.
During the post-mortem that was the Monday flight home, I read an interesting stat in the Philadelphia Daily News regarding the Eagles’ sudden red zone ineptitude. Excluding the demolition of the Lions in Week 3, the offense has entered the red zone 15 times and come away with exactly two touchdowns. And field goals do not typically pave the way to victory.
So what can the Eagles do to salvage their season? For one thing, the solution isn’t to bench Donovan McNabb in favor of Kevin Kolb, as one genius in the section over from me suggested. (And, no, it wasn’t Pennsylvania Governor Ed Rendell).
The fix for the Eagles is actually quite simple: Be better.
Andy Reid and Marty Mornhinweg need to be better at red-zone play-calling, which includes keeping Brian Westbrook heavily involved via the run. Donovan McNabb needs to be better at putting the football in places where his guys can catch it. And, perhaps most importantly, the receivers have to actually hold on to the ball. The defense could also be better at pressuring the quarterback, especially in a prevent situation. The special teams could certainly be better at establishing field position.
I may be in the minority, but I think the Eagles can still turn this thing around. And even if this season goes by the boards, their proverbial window of opportunity can be extended. How, you ask?
Trade for Ocho Cinco.
I know, I know, we’ve been down the road of the Prima Donna wide receiver before, and it didn’t end well. But it sure started well. See, there’s one huge difference between OC and TO. OC may be loud and brash and egotistical. OC has never been divisive, despite his end-zone and sideline antics.
There are a lot of factors that would have to fall into place. The rumor is that the Bengals will try to trade OC, but it’s purely conjecture at this point. Assuming they do try and trade him, they’ll probably demand a king’s ransom. Is he worth a mid-to-late first round pick? Eagles owner Jeffery Lurie would also have to buy in to the whole thing, and he was burned badly by TO. What I’m saying is, there’s an 85% chance it won’t happen.
But imagine if it did…
For the record, last week also represented my best gambling week of the season. Not sure what’s worse – the fact that 8-6 is my high water mark for the year, or the fact that it took me seven weeks to get there. Come to think of it, let’s just move on.
Sunday, October 28, 2007
The Match-up: Detroit (+5.0) @ Chicago
The Skinny: So will Brian Griese play like Peyton Manning as he did in orchestrating the two-minute offense to perfection in the comeback win at Philly? Or will he regress and play like, well, like Brian Griese?
Straight Up: Chicago
Against the Spread: Chicago
The Match-up: Pittsburgh (-3.5) @ Cincinnati
The Skinny: No way Omar Epps lets the Steelers lapse in consecutive weeks. Losing in Denver is unconscionable. Losing in Cincinnati would be unforgivable.
Straight Up: Pittsburgh
Against the Spread: Pittsburgh
The Match-up: Indianapolis (-6.5) @ Carolina
The Skinny: This would be a potential trap game for the Colts if they weren’t facing a team quarterbacked by 71-year old Vinny Testaverde.
Straight Up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Indianapolis
The Match-up: Oakland (+7.5) @ Tennessee
The Skinny: Admit it – you saw Tennessee put up 38 points last week and thought for sure Vince Young went off. No, that would have been Rod Bironas setting an NFL record by booting eight field goals last week.
Straight Up: Tennessee
Against the Spread: Oakland
The Match-up: Cleveland (-3.0) @ St. Louis
The Skinny: Steven Jackson is back and imploring fans to start him on their fantasy teams this week. Seeing as I traded for Jackson a couple of weeks ago, I’ll oblige.
Straight Up: St. Louis
Against the Spread: St. Louis
The Match-up: New York Giants (-9.5) @ Scottish Claymores (er, the Miami Dolphins)
The Skinny: Actually the Claymores, nee of the NFL Europe league, might give the Giants a better game. Why is the NFL trying to promote its game via the Miami Dolphins? Are they that internationally recognizable?
Straight Up: New York Giants
Against the Spread: New York Giants
The Match-up: Philadelphia (-1.0) @ Minnesota
The Skinny: If you’re Brad Childress, why aren’t you giving the ball to Adrian Peterson 25 times a game? AD only carried it 12 times last week in Dallas. He should be a workhorse…starting next week.
Straight Up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia
The Match-up: Buffalo (+3.0) @ New York Jets
The Skinny: Somehow, someway, the 1-6 Jets are favored over the juggernaut 2-4 Bills. That tells me a lot about Buffalo’s chances.
Straight Up: New York Jets
Against the Spread: New York Jets
The Match-up: Houston (NL) @ San Diego
The Skinny: The league has yet to determine if, when, or where this game will be played. I’m sure those details are the least concerns of the people of San Diego.
Straight Up: San Diego
Against the Spread: San Diego
The Match-up: Jacksonville (+4.0) @ Tampa Bay
The Skinny: The Jaguars are down to essentially their third string quarterback, a guy named Quinn Gray who wears a heavily-tinted visor a la LaDanian Tomlinson. The NFL is so upside down this year that this is the kind of game Jacksonville will win.
Straight Up: Tampa Bay
Against the Spread: Jacksonville
The Match-up: New Orleans (-3.0) @ San Francisco
The Skinny: The 49ers welcome back quarterback Alex Smith, who will likely hand the ball to Frank Gore early and often. The Saints appear to have been revived and believe it or not can still challenge for the NFC South title.
Straight Up: New Orleans
Against the Spread: New Orleans
The Match-up: Washington (+16.5) @ New England
The Skinny: Like the Colts, the Patriots face what could be viewed as a trap game. But this Pats team is playing with such an attitude; they’ll probably beat up on the Redskins as if they’ve seen them on video.
Straight Up: New England
Against the Spread: New England
Monday, October 29, 2007
The Match-up: Green Bay (+3.0) @ Denver
The Skinny: If the Red Sox sweep Colorado (which looks entirely possible at this point), there won’t be a conflict between the Broncos game and Game 5 of the World Series. Want to have some fun? Find a Sox fan and tell them that their team has morphed into the Yankees. They love that.
Straight Up: Green Bay
Against the Spread: Green Bay
Bye: Arizona, Atlanta, Baltimore, Dallas, Kansas City, Seattle
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Week 7: 9-5 straight up; 8-6 against the spread
Season: 60-43; 42-53-8
Sunday, October 21, 2007
The Match-up: Tennessee (-1.5) @ Houston
The Skinny: The overwhelming story line remains the fact that Houston passed on native son Vince Young and he burned them twice last season. I know he’s dinged up, but you just know VY will play and likely be the difference maker – again.
Straight Up: Tennessee
Against the Spread: Tennessee
The Match-up: Tampa Bay (+2.0) @ Detroit
The Skinny: The Bucs have been one of the more pleasant surprises this season, yet they’re a dog on the road in Detroit. Tampa QB Jeff Garcia had a cup of coffee with the Lions a few years back and didn’t exactly light it up.
Straight Up: Detroit
Against the Spread: Detroit
The Match-up: New England (-16.5) @ Miami
The Skinny: Every week the Patriots are a double-digit favorite and every week I take the underdog and the points. A few problems with that strategy: 1) The Dolphins suck; 2) The Patriots are playing with a severe chip on their shoulder; 3) There’s no way New England is looking ahead to their potential AFC Championship game with the Colts next week.
Straight Up: New England
Against the Spread: New England
The Match-up: Atlanta (+9.0) @ New Orleans
The Skinny: Fresh off their Monday night loss to the Giants, the Falcons will elevate QB Byron Leftwich to the top of the depth chart. Whether or not he can elevate the Falcons remains to be seen.
Straight Up: New Orleans
Against the Spread: Atlanta
The Match-up: San Francisco (+9.0) @ New York Giants
The Skinny: Memo to 49ers cornerbacks – you may want to actually cover Plaxico Burress. He’ll be the guy behind you on his way to the end zone.
Straight Up: New York Giants
Against the Spread: New York Giants
The Match-up: Baltimore (-3.0) @ Buffalo
The Skinny: When last we saw the Bills, they were scaring the crap out of the Cowboys two Mondays ago. The problem is, that was their Super Bowl. No way they get up like that this week, especially against former Bill Willis McGahee who will likely run a little harder on Sunday.
Straight Up: Baltimore
Against the Spread: Baltimore
The Match-up: Arizona (+8.5) @ Washington
The Skinny: Kurt Warner will likely play (at least part-time) despite torn ligaments in his non-throwing elbow. The Cards will also have WR Anquan Boldin back from a hip injury.
Straight Up: Washington
Against the Spread: Arizona
The Match-up: Kansas City (+2.5) @ Oakland
The Skinny: The Chiefs were comfortable enough with the progress of Priest Holmes that they traded back-up RB Michael Bennett to Tampa. If they have to use Holmes, it’s probably bad news for Kansas City.
Straight Up: Oakland
Against the Spread: Oakland
The Match-up: New York Jets (+6.5) @ Cincinnati
The Skinny: Has there been a more disappointing team then the Bengals this season? Their defense is so bad that I even think the Jets can put up some points. Maybe not enough to win, but they’ll hang around.
Straight Up: Cincinnati
Against the Spread: New York Jets
The Match-up: Chicago (+5.5) @ Philadelphia
The Skinny: Last time I attended an Eagles game (December 2004), Donovan McNabb threw for over 300 yards and 5 TD’s…in the first half. Brian Westbrook scored three times and the Birds crushed the Packers. Guess where I’ll be on Sunday?
Straight Up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia
The Match-up: St. Louis (+8.5) @ Seattle
The Skinny: I think the Seahawks learned a lesson about taking a winless team lightly once the Saints marched in and did them in their own backyard. I don’t think Mike Holmgren will let that happen again.
Straight Up: Seattle
Against the Spread: Seattle
The Match-up: Minnesota (+9.5) @ Dallas
The Skinny: I believe some guy gave you Adrian Peterson as the rookie of the year for 2007. How’s he doing so far? He’s only leading the league in rushing and just hung 224 yards on the Bears last week. Hope TOFU has his popcorn ready for the "AD" show. "AD," by the way, stands for "All Day."
Straight Up: Minnesota
Against the Spread: Minnesota
The Match-up: Pittsburgh (-3.5) @ Denver
The Skinny: Flying under the radar thanks to all the attention being paid to New England and Indianapolis, the Steelers are having a great season and are looking at another win this week in Denver, who will be without WR Javon Walker indefinitely with a knee injury.
Straight Up: Pittsburgh
Against the Spread: Pittsburgh
Monday, October 22, 2007
The Match-up: Indianapolis (-3.0) @ Jacksonville
The Skinny: This is easily the most entertaining game of the weekend (except for the Eagles game, of course). The Jaguars always give the Colts fits, and now the Maurice Jones-Drew has awoken from his early-season slumber, I’d expect another tight one.
Straight Up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Indianapolis
Bye: Carolina, Cleveland, Green Bay, San Diego
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Week 5: 7-6 straight up; 4-7-2 against the spread
Season: 51-38; 34-47-8 (this is why I don’t gamble)
Sunday, October 14, 2007
The Match-up: Tennessee (+3.0) @ Tampa Bay
The Skinny: Bucs coach Jon Gruden is looking for a running back, even mentioning CB Ronde Barber’s twin brother by name. No such issues for Tennessee, whose QB is a better running back than anyone on Tampa’s active roster.
Straight Up: Tennessee
Against the Spread: Tennessee
The Match-up: Minnesota (+5.0) @ Chicago
The Skinny: The Bears absolutely had to have last week’s win over Green Bay to stay within shouting distance in the NFC North. Lucky for them, the Packers obliged.
Straight Up: Chicago
Against the Spread: Chicago
The Match-up: Houston (+6.5) @ Jacksonville
The Skinny: Don’t look now, but the Jaguars are 3-1, playing good defense, and their running game is starting to round into form. It’s a shame they don’t play in the NFC or they may have clinched a playoff berth by now.
Straight Up: Jacksonville
Against the Spread: Houston
The Match-up: Miami (+4.5) @ Cleveland
The Skinny: Enough with the Joey Porter vs. Kellen Winslow trash talk. Can we just let the two of them beat each other into submission so we don’t have to watch them play this week?
Straight Up: Cleveland
Against the Spread: Cleveland
The Match-up: St. Louis (+9.5) @ Baltimore
The Skinny: The Ravens squeaked by a San Francisco team quarterbacked by Trent Dilfer. This week they get a Rams team with Gus Frerotte under center. Seems we’ve been down this road before…
Straight Up: Baltimore
Against the Spread: St. Louis
The Match-up: Washington (+3.0) @ Green Bay
The Skinny: Here’s the story of the Packers running game. It stinks. The end. Not being able to run the ball against a very good Redskins defense means Green Bay will follow its 8-game winning streak with a two-game slide.
Straight Up: Washington
Against the Spread: Washington
The Match-up: Cincinnati (-3.0) @ Kansas City
The Skinny: How bad is the AFC West? The Chiefs are 2-3 and have scored 63 points this season. That’s good enough for second place in the division, a half game behind the surging Oakland Raiders. I only wish I was kidding.
Straight Up: Cincinnati
Against the Spread: Cincinnati
The Match-up: Philadelphia (-3.0) @ New York Jets
The Skinny: I know it seems like the sky is falling in Philly. But starting this week, the Eagles go to New York to take on the 1-4 Jets, then host the 2-3 Bears (with this guy in attendance), then get the Vikings in Minnesota. Loosely translated – the Birds sould be 4-3 heading into their Monday nighter with Dallas, a.k.a. the worst 5-0 team in history.
Straight Up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia
The Match-up: Carolina (+4.0) @ Arizona
The Skinny: Good back up QB situation? Arizona’s Matt Leinart goes down for the season with a broken collarbone and is replaced by a two-time NFL MVP and Super Bowl champion. Bad back up QB situation? Carolina’s Jake Del-overrated is done for the year with an elbow injury, meaning the Panthers will start either David Carr and his ailing back or 62-year old Vinny Testaverde, who was signed this week.
Straight Up: Arizona
Against the Spread: Arizona
The Match-up: Oakland (+9.5) @ San Diego
The Skinny: Sorry, but a 41-3 beat down of the Broncos does not mean the Chargers are back. Denver isn’t even as good as their 2-3 record. San Diego may win again and start to put a streak together, but the Raiders will make them earn it.
Straight Up: San Diego
Against the Spread: Oakland
The Match-up: New England (-5.5) @ Dallas
The Skinny: Dallas may be unbeaten, but they’re highly overrated. They beat the Giants despite surrendering 35 points, then struggled with winless Miami (trailing in the second half), beat the Bears (not that good), knocked off the winless Rams, then needed smoke and mirrors to overtake the 1-4 Buffalo Bills. Dallas’ opponents are a combined 6-19. New England is going to beat them by at least 20.
Straight Up: New England
Against the Spread: New England
The Match-up: New Orleans (+6.5) @ Seattle
The Skinny: Break out the paper bags, Saints fans, "The Ain’ts" are back!
Straight Up: Seattle
Against the Spread: Seattle
Monday, October 15, 2007
The Match-up: New York Giants (-3.5) @ Atlanta
The Skinny: Not sure if it matters whether or not the Falcons start Joey Harrington or Byron Leftwich at quarterback. Either way, they could learn a lesson from the Eagles and try to block Osi Umenyiora.
Straight Up: New York Giants
Against the Spread: New York Giants
Bye: Buffalo, Denver, Detroit, Indianapolis, Pittsburgh, San Francisco
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Week 5: 9-5 straight up; 7-7 against the spread
Season: 44-32; 30-40-6
"The Eagles need to pull out the yellow and blue jerseys again." – Christopher Benson, on the heels of the Eagles’ embarrassing 16-3 loss to the Giants in Week 4.
What’s worse, the fact that the Eagles have scored twice as many points in their one win where they busted out the Team Sweden throwbacks than they have in their three losses combined, or the fact that Andy Reid still seems oblivious to the notion that you can win football games without chucking it 45 times a game?
I’m fearful that the Eagles system that has been so successful over the last nine years is starting to break down. Donovan McNabb could get away with mediocre receivers in the past because he was elusive, explosive, and a threat to run. Now that he’s had three major lower-body injuries in the last five years, he’s not as mobile as he used to be. The receivers they have can’t get any kind of separation from the defender, meaning opposing corners can play press man-to-man coverage and blitz the hell out of McNabb, who has basically two seconds to throw the ball before he gets sacked.
Here are three simple things they could do to help Donovan McNabb:
1. Bring in an elite wide receiver or two that can stretch the field – I know they used to have one who will remain nameless, but he was a piece of crap, so he had to go. Someone of his caliber who can get off a jam at the line of scrimmage and get downfield would be a tremendous asset.
2. Play a second tight end in lieu of a fullback – Against a two tight end set, opposing defenses probably wouldn’t play nickel, meaning they could sneak Brian Westbrook out of the backfield against a safety or linebacker, which is a favorable match-up no matter who’s trying to defend him.
3. Run the football more – Westbrook can do it, Correll Buckhalter can do it, I’d bet even Tony Hunt could do it if given the chance. But the bottom line is they need to be more balanced on offense. I thought Reid would have learned this lesson last November, but evidently not.
Look, it’s still waaaaaaaaaaaaaaay to early to press the panic button. The fact is, other than Dallas and Green Bay, nobody’s running away in the NFC. I know Seattle is 3-1 (and I think they may have already clinched the West) and Tampa Bay is off to a nice start, but they aren’t considered elite teams yet. Chicago and New Orleans are both in the tank, and everybody’s sleepers San Francisco and Arizona have quarterback issues. The Birds have played without pro-bowlers Brian Dawkins, Lito Sheppard, William "Tra" Thomas, tight end L.J. Smith, and their MVP, Westbrook. If the Eagles can get healthy over the bye week and string together a few wins, they’ll be right back in the playoff picture.
It’s also too early to press the panic button on my picks. Last week, nine underdogs not only covered but won outright. So it’s not just me struggling through these games. If Vegas can’t get it right, who can? I am, however, reverting to simply picking by gut feel. Starting right now.
Sunday, October 7, 2007
The Match-up: Atlanta (+8.5) @ Tennessee
The Skinny: OK, Vince Young, I’m sold. Young has carried the Titans to a 2-1 record, including 2-0 on the road and a narrow two-point home loss to the defending champion Colts. I know Joey Harrington has played well in his last two games, but even a broken clock is right twice a day.
Straight Up: Tennessee
Against the Spread: Tennessee
The Match-up: Miami (+5.5) @ Houston
The Skinny: Despite his team’s struggles, Miami’s Ronnie Brown is putting up monster numbers this season, averaging better than five yards a carry. Too bad he can’t play quarterback.
Straight Up: Houston
Against the Spread: Houston
The Match-up: Jacksonville (-2.0) @ Kansas City
The Skinny: Kansas City WR Dwayne Bowe looks like the early front-runner for offensive rookie of the year. Coincidentally, the Chiefs have won two straight after opening 0-2. And, the Chiefs are typically tough to beat at Arrowhead Stadium. So why am I picking Jacksonville? Because despite all the things in Kansas City’s favor, they’re still an underdog. There’s got to be a reason why, right?
Straight Up: Jacksonville
Against the Spread: Jacksonville
The Match-up: Arizona (-3.5) @ St. Louis
The Skinny: If you’re Ken Whisenhunt, how can you not start Kurt Warner in St. Louis this week? As for the Rams, Gus Frerotte handing off to Brian Leonard…is this Week 5 or the pre-season?
Straight Up: Arizona
Against the Spread: Arizona
The Match-up: Cleveland (+16.5) @ New England
The Skinny: Looking for a chink in the Patriots’ armor? How about this – after scoring 38 point in each of their first three games this season, they only managed 34 against Cincinnati on Monday. They’re slipping.
Straight Up: New England
Against the Spread: Cleveland
The Match-up: Carolina (+3.0) @ New Orleans
The Skinny: So much for that vaunted Saints offense. New Orleans has only managed to score 38 points this season. Hell, that’s one week’s total for the Patriots. Or a half for the Eagles. If the Saints don’t get it going this week (without Deuce McAllister, who is out for the year with a torn ACL), you can go ahead and throw dirt on them.
Straight Up: New Orleans
Against the Spread: New Orleans
The Match-up: New York Jets (+3.5) @ New York Giants
The Skinny: After surrendering 97 points in their first ten quarters of the season, the Giants defense has given up only three in six quarters since. My guess is that they won’t notch 12 sacks against Chad Pennington and the Jets, but the Giants defense could make the difference in The Jersey Bowl.
Straight Up: New York Giants
Against the Spread: New York Giants
The Match-up: Seattle (+5.5) @ Pittsburgh
The Skinny: No revenge for the Seahawks in this Super Bowl rematch. Seattle’s pass defense has been torched this year, and Steelers WR Santonio Holmes is averaging move than 20 yards per catch.
Straight Up: Pittsburgh
Against the Spread: Pittsburgh
The Match-up: Detroit (+3.5) @ Washington
The Skinny: Typically, one-dimensional teams are easier to defend. And despite their high-powered passing offense, the Lions simply cannot run the football. Washington’s secondary is very good, and they’ll have their hands full with Roy Williams. But the Redskins are a good running, ball control team and should be able to keep Jon Kitna and company on the sidelines for large chunks of time.
Straight Up: Washington
Against the Spread: Washington
The Match-up: Tampa Bay (+10.0) @ Indianapolis
The Skinny: The bad news for the Bucs? RB Carnell "Cadillac" Williams was placed on injured reserve with a torn patella tendon. The good news? Michael Pittman and Earnest Graham appear capable of carrying the load. The bad news? The Bucs head to Indianapolis this week. The good news? Anyone?
Straight Up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Indianapolis
The Match-up: San Diego (+1.5) @ Denver
The Skinny: So what’s wrong with the Chargers? Was it all Marty Schottenheimer? Not exactly. Remember, the Chargers lost their offensive and defensive coordinators to head coaching vacancies, then GM A.J. Smith fired Schottenheimer. Young QB Philip Rivers is now in his third offensive system in four seasons (no wonder he’s struggling), and his troubles are magnified by the fact that defenses are ganging up on LT and challenging Rivers to beat them. So far, he hasn’t.
Straight Up: Denver
Against the Spread: Denver
The Match-up: Baltimore (-3.5) @ San Francisco
The Skinny: Subplots abound in this one, with former Super Bowl champion QB Trent Dilfer facing his old Ravens club, the same club with which 49ers head coach Mike Nolan cut his NFL teeth. Baltimore’s defense hasn’t look as menacing as in seasons past, and this could be Frank Gore’s official coming out party for the 2007 season.
Straight Up: San Francisco
Against the Spread: San Francisco
The Match-up: Chicago (+3.0) @ Green Bay
The Skinny: Maybe it wasn’t all "Train Wrecks" Grossman’s fault. The Bears finally made a QB switch last week, and Brian Griese threw three picks in a Chicago loss. QB isn’t the issue with the Bears. The lack of a running game is. Letting Thomas Jones walk in the off-season was a horrible decision that is now coming home to roost.
Straight Up: Green Bay
Against the Spread: Green Bay
Monday, October 8, 2007
The Match-up: Dallas (-10.0) @ Buffalo
The Skinny: Nobody circles the wagons like the Buffalo Bills!
Straight Up: Buffalo
Against the Spread: Buffalo
Bye: Cincinnati, Minnesota, Oakland, Philadelphia
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Week 4: 5-9 straight up; 5-9 against the spread
Season: 35-27; 23-33-6
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