The Week 4 Picks

Random thoughts as a pre-cursor to the Week 4 Picks…

I don’t want to pay a whole lot of attention to the TOFU alleged drug overdose-suicide attempt, but I have made a few observations:

1. We all knew TOFU had issues, but maybe they’re deeper than anyone imagined.

2. TOFU’s publicist, Kim Etheredge, who called 911 and reportedly had to pry two more pills out of TOFU’s mouth, said TOFU has "25 million reasons" to stay alive. This sums up TOFU in a nutshell – never mind living for his family, his friends, his teammates and the chance to win a Super Bowl. Nope, it’s all about the money with this guy, proving again that TOFU is all about TOFU. Besides, what does TOFU’s paycheck have anything to do with this? Like rich people can’t have mental issues.
Etheredge, by the way, is pretty shady. Not Drew Weasel-haus shady, but close. My instinct was that she was lying through her teeth at the press conference. Next question.

3. Where does the league stand on this issue? The guy either has severe psychological issues or has a drug problem, yet the league has done nothing to intervene? Strange.

4. Is TOFU to fragile to play next weekend in Philly? Can you hear the pill bottles rattling in the hands of 60,000 Philly fans? It’s going to be fun.

Excellent effort in New Orleans on Monday, from the U2-Green Day performance, to the atmosphere in the crowd, to the game itself. How could I not pick the Saints to win that game?

Ed Hochuli is diesel. Are NFL Officials subject to the same drug testing as the players? Somebody make that guy pee in a cup.

I don’t really know if there is such a thing as the "Madden Curse," but Shaun Alexander broke his foot, the latest in a run of bad luck for the video game cover boys. Any chance we can petition Madden to put the 2006-07 Dallas Cowboys team photo on his next game?

Of all the highly touted rookie quarterbacks (Matt Leinart, Vince Young, Jay Cutler), who had Bruce Gradkowski as the first to get a start in ’06? Not sure what made me mention him by name last week.

The Week 3 Records: 9-5 straight up (30-16 for the season), 6-6-2 against the spread (deuces wild on the year, 22-22-2).

One more thing – I’m writing with a heavy heart, as today would have been my father’s 67th birthday. I miss you, Pop. Thanks for keeping an eye on me.

Sunday, October 1, 2006

The Match-up: Arizona (+7.0) @ Atlanta
The Skinny: Denny Green said Matt Leinart would start this week, then reversed fields and decided to stick with the Turnover Factory, Kurt Warner. With the Factory under center, I like the Falcons.
Straight Up: Atlanta
Against the Spread: Atlanta

The Match-up: New Orleans (+7.5) @ Carolina
The Skinny: It will be damn near impossible for the Saints to get up for this game the way they did on Monday. But I’ve learned my lesson – I’m not going against them until they give me a reason to.
Straight Up: Carolina
Against the Spread: New Orleans

The Match-up: Minnesota (+1.0) @ Buffalo
The Skinny: If this game were being played in December and the dome-team Vikings were heading to Buffalo, I’d expect them to be underdogs. But I don’t like this line one bit. Something’s not right.
Straight Up: Buffalo
Against the Spread: Buffalo

The Match-up: San Diego (-2.5) @ Baltimore
The Skinny: Probably not much offense in this one, with the resurgent Ravens defense facing a quarterback making only his third NFL start, and the nasty, aggressive Chargers D lining up against a guy that is clearly on the downside of his NFL career.
Straight Up: San Diego
Against the Spread: San Diego

The Match-up: Miami (-3.5) @ Houston
The Skinny: So Gary Kubiak is disappointed with the play first overall pick Mario Williams? Is this really a surprise to anyone? Outside of the Texans brain trust, did anyone think Williams would be the impact player than, say, Reggie Bush has been?
Straight Up: Miami
Against the Spread: Miami

The Match-up: Dallas (-9.5) @ Tennessee
The Skinny: You can tell that Bill Parcells is starting to get annoyed with TOFU and all his baggage. So much so that he had to take time this week and talk about TOFU instead of preparing for the Titans. Prediction – Vince Young plays because he’s more elusive and can pose problems for the Dallas defense, and the Titans pull off the colossal upset.
Straight Up: Tennessee
Against the Spread: Tennessee

The Match-up: San Francisco (+7.0) @ Kansas City
The Skinny: Damon Huard is still starting for the Chiefs, right? Good enough for me.
Straight Up: San Francisco
Against the Spread: San Francisco

The Match-up: Indianapolis (-9.0) @ New York Jets
The Skinny: For all the hype the Bengals have gotten for getting out of the gates at 3-0, the equally-undefeated Colts are kind of hovering under the radar now. After we were inundated with home movies of Peyton Manning before and during Week 1, we’ve almost forgotten about him. Unless of course you count the commercials for Sprint, DirecTV, Gatorade...
Straight Up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: New York Jets

The Match-up: Detroit (+5.5) @ St. Louis
The Skinny: Now that I think about it, Lions WR Roy Williams was right. It’s sick to think how close the Lions are to scoring 40 points. They’ve scored 37…in three games. Like I said, sick.
Straight Up: St. Louis
Against the Spread: St. Louis

The Match-up: Jacksonville (-3.0) @ Washington
The Skinny: Even in defeat last week, I think the Jaguars established themselves as a legitimate power in the AFC. Jacksonville may have uncovered a weapon in Maurice Jones-Drew, who amassed better than 100 yards and a touchdown and would seem to be a perfect compliment to Fred Taylor.
Straight Up: Jacksonville
Against the Spread: Jacksonville

The Match-up: New England (+6.0) @ Cincinnati
The Skinny: So Patriots fan, how does it feel to know that your owner let go of proven commodities like Deion Branch, Adam Vinatieri, and Willie McGinest, but remains $13 million under the cap? At least you’ve got three rings to fall back on.
Straight Up: Cincinnati
Against the Spread: Cincinnati

The Match-up: Cleveland (-3.0) @ Oakland
The Skinny: The Raiders have managed six points this season, or three per game. Since they’re a three-point dog, that means the Browns only have to score seven to cover. They should be able to do that.
Straight Up: Cleveland
Against the Spread: Cleveland

The Match-up: Seattle (+3.0) @ Chicago
The Skinny: The classic match-up in this one will be between Seattle’s dynamic offense (potentially with Shaun Alexander) against the stout Chicago D. But the game within the game in Chicago this week will be the ability of the Bears offense to move the ball against the underrated Seahawks defense.
Straight Up: Chicago
Against the Spread: Chicago

Monday, October 2nd, 2006

The Match-up: Green Bay (+11.0) @ Philadelphia
The Skinny: There is a chance that the Phillies will host a one-game playoff at Citizen’s Bank Park prior to the Eagles game at The Linc. Hopefully much good sports Karma for the city of Philly.
Straight Up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia

The Week 3 Picks

What, no Week 2 wrap up, you say? Fine, here it is in a nutshell - it sucked.

After the high of Week 1 featuring 12 winners (10 against the spread), a fantasy football win, and hitting the trifecta - Notre Dame wins, Eagles win, Cowboys lose - Week 2 was filled with nothing but lows.

The Week 2 records? 9-7 straight up, 6-10 against the spread.

"Bonzi’s Pecans" fell to Peyton Manning and the "Tarheels"

Notre Dame? Embarrassed by Michigan. The Eagles? Choked away a sure win against the Giants. Dallas? Man-handled the Redskins.

Call it the crap-fecta.

Anyway, what’s done is done. And Week 3 is a chance to bounce back, for the Irish, the Birds, and The Kid.

Sunday, September 24, 2006

The Match-up: Chicago (-3.0) @ Minnesota
The Skinny: Scary thought # 1 - Rex Grossman gives the Bears a legitimate offense, the kind that can move the ball and score points. Couple that with a defense that doesn’t surrender a whole lot, and you’re looking at the NFC’s best team (after two weeks).
Straight Up: Chicago
Against the Spread: Chicago

The Match-up: Cincinnati (+1.5) @ Pittsburgh
The Skinny: Carson Palmer says he hates the Steelers even more than he hates UCLA. I thought he wasn’t bitter about that hit in last year’s playoffs. Anyway, Palmer may hate the Steelers even more after Sunday. And thanks, NFL, for abolishing the excessive celebrations. Now instead of laughing at Chad Johnson’s creative end zone antics, I’m watching him do the chicken dance like some schmuck at a wedding in a fire house.
Straight Up: Pittsburgh
Against the Spread: Pittsburgh

The Match-up: New York Jets (+5.5) @ Buffalo
The Skinny: After falling behind 24-0 to New England, Chad Pennington, Laveranues Coles and the Jets showed much heart, rallying to cut the score to 24-17. They did lose the game, but if the Jets play the way they did in that second half against the Pats, they might just be alright.
Straight Up: New York Jets
Against the Spread: New York Jets

The Match-up: Carolina (-3.0) @ Tampa Bay
The Skinny: Scary thought # 2 - one of these two teams that was predicted to contend for a Super Bowl will be 0-3 after Sunday. And 0-3 is a lot worse than 0-2. By the way, Tampa’s back up quarterback is Bruce Gradkowski, if you need him.
Straight Up: Carolina
Against the Spread: Carolina

The Match-up: Green Bay (+7.0) @ Detroit
The Skinny: The struggling Lions inquired about the status of disgruntled Oakland wide receiver Jerry Porter. What, was Koren "DUI" Robinson off the market? Oh yeah, he signed with the Packers. Two pretty bad football teams on display in this one.
Straight Up: Detroit
Against the Spread: Green Bay

The Match-up: Washington (-4.0) @ Houston
The Skinny: You could argue that no offense suffers more from the absence of one player than Washington and Clinton Portis. The good news for the ‘Skins is that Portis is expected to play. The better news? So are the Texans.
Straight Up: Washington
Against the Spread: Washington

The Match-up: Jacksonville (+7.0) @ Indianapolis
The Skinny: Are the Jags for real? They’ve beaten Dallas and Pittsburgh, two quality opponents, behind a defense that looks as good as ever. But this week in Indianapolis will be the real litmus test. Me? I’m drinking the teal and black Kool-Aid (in small doses).
Straight Up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Jacksonville

The Match-up: Tennessee (+11.0) @ Miami
The Skinny: The Dolphins have to be the most disappointing 0-2 team thus far. Losing to Pittsburgh at Heinz Field is acceptable. Losing at home to Buffalo is not. A setback to 0-2 Tennessee could land Daunte Culpepper in Nick Saban’s dog house.
Straight Up: Miami
Against the Spread: Tennessee

The Match-up: Baltimore (-6.5) @ Cleveland
The Skinny: Please don’t confuse the message with the messenger. If a prominent member of the Browns (oxymoron) came out and said "we’ve got nothing to lose, so let’s open it up on offense," it would carry some weight. When it’s Private Kellen Winslow II, it falls on deaf ears.
Straight Up: Baltimore
Against the Spread: Baltimore

The Match-up: St. Louis (+4.5) @ Arizona
The Skinny: I’ve got a funny feeling that this game could turn into a shootout. Think about the weapons on offense - Bulger, Jackson, Holt, Bruce, Warner, James, Fitzgerald, Boldin. Now think about the big names on defense. There’s...um, you’ve got...um...well, anyway. You get the idea.
Straight Up: Arizona
Against the Spread: Arizona

The Match-up: Philadelphia (-6.0) @ San Francisco
The Skinny: Alright, I’m always quick to defend Andy Reid when people criticize. But I can’t do it after last week’s gag job. You’ve got an all-pro quarterback and one of the most versatile running backs in the league and you go run-run-pass-punt for the last 18 minutes of the game? Teams that have a killer instinct don’t give up 17-point leads in the second half. The Eagles better develop that mentality, and fast.
Straight Up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia

The Match-up: New York Giants (+3.5) @ Seattle
The Skinny: The talk around Giants Nation is that Sunday’s comeback represented the coming of age of Eli Manning. We’ll see how he plays in Seattle on Sunday. Alexander vs. Tiki is always an intriguing match-up.
Straight Up: Seattle
Against the Spread: Seattle

The Match-up: Denver (+7.0) @ New England
The Skinny: I can only assume that Tom Brady’s slow start has been partially due to the fact that he’s been looking ahead to this game - a chance for redemption after the Broncos handed Brady his first ever playoff loss in January. Well, that and the fact that he’s got nobody to throw to anymore.
Straight Up: New England
Against the Spread: New England

Monday, September 25, 2006

The Match-up: Atlanta (-3.5) @ New Orleans
The Skinny: The Saints are back home in New Orleans, and 46-year old Morten Andersen will be kicking for the Falcons. Just like old times in the Big Easy. If Ron Mexico keeps playing like this, I might have to stop calling him Ron Mexico.
Straight Up: Atlanta
Against the Spread: Atlanta

Bye Week: Dallas, Kansas City, Oakland, San Diego

The Week 2 Picks

Welcome to Week 2, a week that features multiple intriguing division match-ups and five games with double-digit point spreads. In terms of picking winners, double-digit lines make things pretty easy. But how many points are too many to leave on the board? Always tough to call. And yes, I’m hedging...

Sunday, September 17, 2006

The Match-up: Oakland (+12.0) @ Baltimore
The Skinny: Either the Chargers defense is one of the best in the NFL, or the Raiders or just that bad. Actually, it’s probably a little of both. Or a lot of both. No relief in site for Oakland, as the Raiders head to Baltimore. The Ravens are coming off their own dominant defensive effort in Tampa in which they made Chris Simms look like, well, Aaron Brooks.
Straight Up: Baltimore
Against the Spread: Baltimore

The Match-up: New Orleans (-2.0) @ Green Bay
The Skinny: It seems to be a regular occurrence now, but there used to be a time when it would be headline news if the Packers were a home dog, especially against a team like New Orleans. I’m not ready to stick the fork in Brett Favre just yet. But check with me again on Monday.
Straight Up: Green Bay
Against the Spread: Green Bay

The Match-up: Houston (+13.5) @ Indianapolis
The Skinny: The Texans traded for Green Bay RB Samkon Gado this week, meaning their running back depth chart now reads Wali Lundy, Ron Dayne, Samkon Gado. I don’t know, do you think that Reggie Bush guy might have helped out any? Even Sam Bowie thinks the Texans botched the 2006 draft.
Straight Up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Indianapolis

The Match-up: Buffalo (+6.5) @ Miami
The Skinny: Miami should be well rested coming off an 11-day layoff, and they had chance to beat the Steelers in the season-opener. Buffalo, on the other hand, came from ahead to lose on a safety in New England a week ago. I’m guessing they won’t stay that close to the Dolphins.
Straight Up: Miami
Against the Spread: Miami

The Match-up: Carolina (-1.5) @ Minnesota
The Skinny: So, even without Steve Smith, the 0-1 Panthers who were dismantled by Atlanta at home last week are favored in Minnesota, fresh off their road win Monday in Washington? That tells me a lot.
Straight Up: Carolina
Against the Spread: Carolina

The Match-up: Tampa Bay (+5.5) @ Atlanta
The Skinny: If you thought Ray Lewis made life difficult for Chris Simms, wait until you see what John Abraham does. I know it was only one game, but I can’t think of a free agent defensive player that had as much of an impact as Abraham did last week in Carolina.
Straight Up: Atlanta
Against the Spread: Atlanta

The Match-up: New York Giants (+3.0) @ Philadelphia
The Skinny: The Giants and Eagles were both impressive a week ago - the Eagles in victory, the Giants in defeat. Either way, we learned a lot about both teams. We’ll learn a lot more after the NFC East opener at the Linc.
Straight Up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia

The Match-up: Detroit (+8.5) @ Chicago
The Skinny: Lions WR Roy Williams was running his gums this week, saying that there’s not a defense that can stop the Lions’ offense. Actually, I can think of a couple. At the top of the list are the Chicago Bears. Across the field this week are the Chicago Bears. Williams said film study revealed that the Lions were close to scoring 40 points against Seattle. They finished with six. I do expect better a better offensive effort from Detroit, but not enough to upset the Bears (as predicted by Williams).
Straight Up: Chicago
Against the Spread: Detroit

The Match-up: Cleveland (+10.0) @ Cincinnati
The Skinny: The Bengals offense was very ho-hum against the Chiefs last week, but that could change if T.J. Who’s-your-momma returns to the line up and gives Carson Palmer another target. Chad Johnson has been surprisingly quiet coming into a game against a secondary to which he once sent cases of Pepto Bismol. Makes me think he’s planning something big.
Straight Up: Cincinnati
Against the Spread: Cleveland

The Match-up: St. Louis (-3.0) @ San Francisco
The Skinny: Even though he only threw one touchdown pass against the Cardinals, Niners QB Alex Smith already matched his TD total from 2005. The new Rams game plan appears to be predicated on running the ball and playing good defense. Coincidentally, Mike Martz is no longer their coach.
Straight Up: St. Louis
Against the Spread: St. Louis

The Match-up: Arizona (+7.0) @ Seattle
The Skinny: There are some who feel Arizona can challenge Seattle in the NFC West. An upset of the Seahawks in Seattle this week would go a long way towards building their case. While I like Arizona’s receivers, I’m not crazy about their offensive line. I could see the underrated Seahawks defense taking over this game.
Straight Up: Seattle
Against the Spread: Seattle

The Match-up: Kansas City (+10.5) @ Denver
The Skinny: If Trent Green didn’t think he was Batman, I would take Kansas City and the points in Denver. As it turns out, Damon Huard will get the start for the Chiefs. I said Damon Huard. Suddenly Jake Plummer isn’t looking so bad, is he?
Straight Up: Denver
Against the Spread: Denver

The Match-up: New England (-6.0) @ New York Jets
The Skinny: Perhaps having some closure to the Deion Branch debacle will help the Patriots focus on the guys that are actually on the field. Tom Brady and company get untracked this week against the Jets.
Straight Up: New England
Against the Spread: New England

The Match-up: Tennessee (+11.5) @ San Diego
The Skinny: The new version of the ‘85 Bears host a Tennessee team featuring Kerry Collins at QB. It warrants mentioning that Collins was dismissed by the Raiders in favor of Aaron Brooks, who San Diego had their way with on Monday. Could be another big game for Shawne Merriman and company.
Straight Up: San Diego
Against the Spread: San Diego

The Match-up: Washington (+6.0) @ Dallas
The Skinny: Instead of spending Monday night bumping elbows with Tom Cruise, Daniel Snyder should have been on the phone trying to address his quarterback deficiency. Mark Brunell and the Redskin offense converted on only four of 13 third down chances, and that cost them the game against the Vikings. The Scientologist can’t help you there, Danny, but I hear Jeff George is available.
Straight Up: Washington
Against the Spread: Washington

Monday, September 18, 2006

The Match-up: Pittsburgh (-1.5) @ Jacksonville
The Skinny: Not sure why so many people are saying Jacksonville "upset" Dallas last week. The Jags (who were 12-4 last year by the way) were favored to win the game. Needless to say, I was not surprised that they delivered. Dethroning the World Champions who may or may not have Ben Roethlisberger back under center? That would qualify as an upset.
Straight Up: Pittsburgh
Against the Spread: Pittsburgh

Week 1 Wrap Up

Week 1 is in the books, and this guy hit the Weekend Trifecta – Notre Dame won on Saturday (throttling Penn State 41-17), the Eagles won on Sunday (24-10 over the Reggie Bush-less Houston Texans), and the stinkin’ Cowboys lost in Jacksonville (hee hee).

Ah, but the good fortune was only beginning. It turns out that the San Diego Chargers nine-sack shutout of the Oakland Raiders not only propelled "Bonzi’s Pecans" to a Week 1 win over "Action Jackson," but also resulted in the high point total for the Week, and an extra few bucks in this guy’s pocket.

And, showing no signs of rust from the long off-season, The Kid opens 2006 with a 12-4 straight-up record and a 10-6 mark against the spread. As for the lifetime record, I was able to recover the file. The tale of the tape is as follows:

Straight Up
2002 157-98-1 (.616)
2003 159-97-0 (.621)
2004 170-86-0 (.664)
2005 171-85-0 (.668)

Against the Spread
2002 129-127-0 (.504)
2003 120-136-0 (.469)
2004 137-119-0 (.535)
134-111-11 (.547)

The 12-4 and 10-6 Week 1 records represent my best opening week since I’ve been doing this. Usually it takes a couple of weeks to know who’s for real and who’s not, so the fact that Week 1 was so strong is hopefully a sign of good things to come. Stay tuned.

Here are some random thoughts from Week 1…

Most Impressive Teams
Baltimore Ravens: The new-look Ravens, with a new quarterback and the same old defense, went to Tampa and hung a 27-0 beat down on the Bucs. After only one week, Steve McNair sure looks like the missing link. Ray Lewis is back at 100% health, and maybe its because he missed 10 games last year, but you almost forget how dominant he can be.

Atlanta Falcons: The Falcons opened with a very impressive win in Carolina, behind the running of Warrick Dunn and the play making of Ron Mexico. Atlanta’s defense completely shut down Carolina’s short-handed offense (more on this in a minute).

Least Impressive Teams
Carolina Panthers: I know they were without Steve Smith, but Carolina’s vaunted defense was gashed for 253 yards on the ground, and they lost two players (LT Travelle Wharton and LB Dan Morgan) to injury. I don’t think it’s time for everybody’s Super Bowl pick to push the panic button, but the Panthers’ weakness may have been exposed.

Seattle Seahawks: How’s that Super Bowl runner-up curse working for you? I know they won, but maybe they miss LG Steve Hutchinson more than they let on. Shaun Alexander garnered 51 yards and a fumble, and the rest of the Seahawk offense could only accumulate nine points against the Detroit Lions? They’re not the ’85 Bears. Seattle did trade for disgruntled Patriot Deion Branch, so we’ll see how that works out.

Denver Broncos: Jake Plummer looked like a different quarterback all of last season, tossing only seven picks and becoming a much better game-manager. Jake Plummer of Sunday looked like Jake Plummer circa 2003, turning the ball over three times in Denver’s loss to St. Louis.

Offensive Player of the Week
Frank Gore, San Francisco 49ers – Gore amassed 170 total yards and 2 TD’s on 22 touches. He was very impressive in a losing effort.

Defensive Player of the Week
(tie) John Abraham, Atlanta Falcons; Shawne Merriman, San Diego Chargers – Abraham was all over the field in Carolina, recording 5 tackles, a sack, a pass break-up, and 2 forced fumbles. Merriman was equally unblockable, notching 6 tackles and 3 sacks in Monday night’s shutout of the Raiders.

Quick Hitters
Nice debut for Reggie Bush in New Orleans, eh?

Attention Fantasy Footballers – pick up Jay Cutler – now.

High marks for the new Monday Night Football crew. I’ve been a Pardon the Interruption fan for a while, so I’m a big Tony Kornheiser guy. And a lot of people seem to be down on Joe Theismann, but he’s a Domer, meaning he’s alright by me.

Speaking of MNF, I can’t look at Suzy Kolber without thinking of an inebriated Joe Namath falling all over her. One of the funniest things I’ve ever seen.

What’s up with the sissy throwing of the red challenge flags? Nick Saban and Bill Parcells both threw in their flags late and did so in passive fashion. Hard to say if it cost either, but you’d better believe if Bill Cowher wants to challenge a play, he’d hit the referee with the flag before he’s let it go unseen.

The Week 1 Picks

Sunday, September 10th

The Match-up: Baltimore (+3.0) @ Tampa Bay
The Skinny: Nothing like starting off the year with a flip-flop game. My gut tells me that Tampa is good, but not great and that the Ravens are exponentially better with Steve McNair at quarterback.
Straight Up: Baltimore
Against the Spread: Baltimore

The Match-up: New Orleans (+3.0) @ Cleveland
The Skinny: You think I’m going against my sleeper this early? I am interested to see how many carries Reggie Bush gets, but I like the Browns to start off on a good note in the pound.
Straight Up: Cleveland
Against the Spread: Cleveland

The Match-up: Atlanta (+5.0) @ Carolina
The Skinny: Atlanta’s DeAngelo Hall might catch a break after calling out Panthers WR Steve Smith this week, because if Smith is on the field, he’ll beat Hall like a rented mule.
Straight Up: Carolina
Against the Spread: Atlanta

The Match-up: Seattle (-6.0) @ Detroit
The Skinny: The Seahawks open their NFC title defense in Motown looking to break the dreaded Super Bowl loser curse. If it’s going to unravel for Seattle, it probably won’t be this week.
Straight Up: Seattle
Against the Spread: Seattle

The Match-up: Philadelphia (-4.5) @ Houston
The Skinny: You’ve got to love a match up between an outstanding Philadelphia defensive line and a Houston offensive front that surrendered a league high 68 sacks a year ago. Well, unless you’re David Carr.
Straight Up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia

The Match-up: New York Jets (+3.0) @ Tennessee
The Skinny: Kerry Collins will likely start for the Titans after joining the club on August 28th. And the Titans drafted Vince Young 3rd overall in the April draft. Nice knowing you, Billy Volek!
Straight Up: Tennessee
Against the Spread: Tennessee

The Match-up: Cincinnati (+2.5) @ Kansas City
The Skinny: This line should tell me something. Cincinnati, one of my picks for the AFC Championship game, is an underdog in Kansas City? I don’t see it. Arrowhead is a tough place to play, but I’m on board with the Bengals this year. This could be the first game where I second-guess myself.
Straight Up: Cincinnati
Against the Spread: Cincinnati

The Match-up: Denver (-3.5) @ St. Louis
The Skinny: To prepare Jake Plummer for this season, Denver coach Mike Shanahan pumped in noise of the Broncos faithful vociferously calling for rookie Jay Cutler. Get used to it, Jake.
Straight Up: Denver
Against the Spread: Denver

The Match-up: Buffalo (+9.0) @ New England
The Skinny: If Deion Branch had any sense, he’d get his butt to Foxboro ASAP. He’s not going to find in a better situation than the one he’s got in New England. The Patriots will roll, even without Branch.
Straight Up: New England
Against the Spread: New England

The Match-up: Dallas (+2.5) @ Jacksonville
The Skinny: Memo to Jaguars defense – please take it easy on TOFU and his "strained hamstring." I don’t want that scrub to have any excuse to miss the October 8th game in Philly.
Straight Up: Jacksonville
Against the Spread: Jacksonville

The Match-up: Chicago (-3.5) @ Green Bay
The Skinny: Sunday marks what could be the beginning of the Brett Favre farewell tour. The same could be said for Chicago’s Rex Grossman. It’s possible that neither will be starting by the end of the year. Or by the end of this game.
Straight Up: Chicago
Against the Spread: Chicago

The Match-up: San Francisco (+7.5) @ Arizona
The Skinny: The last time the Cardinals were favored by seven and a half? 1986. Alright, I made that up. But it sounds believable, doesn’t it?
Straight Up: Arizona
Against the Spread: Arizona

The Match-up: Indianapolis (-3.5) @ New York Giants
The Skinny: Though it’s being billed as Manning Bowl I, this game is really all about defense, and which of these two talented units can make more plays. I’m going with the Colts, because I think Eli is more turnover-prone than Peyton.
Straight Up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Indianapolis

Monday, September 11, 2006

The Match-up: Minnesota (+4.5) @ Washington
The Skinny: The Redskins may be without Clinton Portis, putting them at a huge disadvantage. Even if Portis plays, Minnesota’s defense could take over this game by shutting him down and putting the game in Mark Brunell’s hands. It wouldn’t surprise me if the Vikings stole one in D.C.
Straight Up: Minnesota
Against the Spread: Minnesota

The Match-up: San Diego (-3.0) @ Oakland
The Skinny: So, the Raiders were so unhappy with their quarterbacks that they signed Jeff George off the scrap heap only to cut him, leaving them in a worse situation with Aaron Brooks back at the top of the depth chart. I wonder if Brady Quinn has started to plan his John Elway escape strategy yet.
Straight Up: San Diego
Against the Spread: San Diego

A Sleeper, Caveats, and a Pick...the 2006 Season Starts Tonight!

One final order of business before we get into the 2006-07 season. My sleeper team for this year is...the Cleveland Browns! Now, when some people think of a sleeper, they think of a team that comes out of nowhere to win a championship. I view a sleeper as a team that nobody is talking about that will be better than people think, and will be a tough out if they’re on the schedule. I had a few teams in mind, but they don’t fit my true definition, therefore I’m going with one of the two teams I named in Week 15 last season (the other team was Miami, and nobody is sleeping on them). Cleveland has good young players on offense (QB Charlie Frye, WR Braylon Edwards, and TE Kellen Winslow II), a decent defense (bolstered by the veteran leadership of ex-Pat Willie McGinest) and a head coach that possesses a winning attitude and pedigree. The Browns are headed in the right direction.

And now, the 2006 picks. If you’re new to this, you need to no a few general rules I live by in terms of picking games, such as:
1. I always take the Eagles, straight up and against the spread, regardless of opponent, location, or line.
2. I NEVER take the Cowboys, straight up and against the spread, regardless of opponent, location, or line.
3. I am not sanctioned by the NFL, which means I can tell you if I think a team sucks without repercussions.
4. Some "experts" have a ‘Lock of the Week’ and/or an ‘Upset of the Week,’ which is simply a gimmick. I do not imply such tactics. If I don’t see an upset happening in a particular week, I won’t call for one. And I think all of my picks are locks, or else I wouldn’t pick them.
5. Last and perhaps most importantly, the picks are provided for your entertainment only. If you use them to gamble and win some money, I don’t accept kickbacks. Conversely, if you lose your lunch money for listening to my dumb ass, that’s on you. I will not be held responsible.

This is the beginning of my fifth year of picking every NFL game, which started as me reading a column by a guy named Pete O’Brien in USA Today about six years ago. Some of the guy’s picks were so out of line that I jotted down my own picks and compared to his on Monday. Needless to say, I hit most of my picks. I actually compiled my record over the last four seasons. Unfortunately, computer problems preclude me from accessing the file right now, but I will pass it along when I can. One thing I do remember is that my win totals have increased in each of the four years. And last I checked, Pete O’Brien is no longer employed by USA Today. Score one for The Kid...

The Match-up: Miami (Pick) @ Pittsburgh
The Skinny: I’ve gone back and forth on this one. After Ben Roethlisberger’s appendectomy shelved him for the opener, I started leaning towards the Fins. But in Pittsburgh, where they will hang a Super Bowl banner and honor the recently retired Jerome Bettis, the atmosphere should be sensational. While I like the look of the Dolphins this year, I think the Steelers will ride the emotion of Heinz Field and the defense (and The Bus) to a close win over Miami.
Straight Up: Pittsburgh
Against the Spread: Pittsburgh

For the Record, the 2006 Predictions

Divisional Standings ("*" indicates playoff team)

AFC East
1. Miami Dolphins*
2. New England Patriots*
3. New York Jets
4. Buffalo Bills

AFC North
1. Baltimore Ravens*
2. Cincinnati Bengals*
3. Pittsburgh Steelers
4. Cleveland Browns

AFC South
1. Indianapolis Colts*
2. Jacksonville Jaguars
3. Houston Texans
4. Tennessee Titans

AFC West
1. Denver Broncos*
2. San Diego Chargers
3. Kansas City Chiefs
4. Oakland Raiders

NFC East
1. Philadelphia Eagles*
2. New York Giants*
3. Washington Redskins
4. Dallas Cowboys

NFC North
1. Chicago Bears*
2. Minnesota Vikings
3. Detroit Lions
4. Green Bay Packers

NFC South
1. Carolina Panthers*
2. Atlanta Falcons*
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
4. New Orleans Saints

NFC West
1. Seattle Seahwaks*
2. Arizona Cardinals
3. St. Louis Rams
4. San Francisco 49ers

AFC Championship: Indianapolis over Cincinnati
NFC Championship: Philadelphia over Carolina
Super Bowl XLI: Philadelphia over Indianapolis

Individual Awards

Most Valuable Player: Carson Palmer, Cincinnati - There will be plenty of worthy candidates, but I’m going with Palmer. You can’t emphasize his importance enough, not just for his physical ability but maybe more valuable is the emotional lift he brings to his team. I firmly believe that Palmer will lead the Bengals back to the playoffs, and Cincinnati can make a run at the AFC Championship.
Honorable Mention: Donovan McNabb, Philadelphia; Peyton Manning, Indianapolis

Offensive Player of the Year: Larry Johnson, Kansas City - I’m going on the assumption that last year’s second half was no fluke. True, he’ll miss Al Saunders’ system and left tackle Willie Roaf, but Herm Edwards is a run-first guy, and he’ll put the ball in Johnson’s hands on first, second, and third down. A 2,000-yard season is not out of the question, even if the post-season is.
Honorable Mention: Shaun Alexander, Seattle; Tiki Barber, New York Giants

Defensive Player of the Year: Shawne Merriman, San Diego - Last year’s defensive rookie of the year is a freak, and covers the field like nobody the league has seen in a while. Merriman can blitz off the edge in San Diego’s 3-4, can chase down running backs, and he can even play coverage. Merriman is the best of the new breed of defensive player in the NFL.
Honorable Mention: Brian Urlacher, Chicago; Jeremiah Trotter, Philadelphia

Offensive Rookie of the Year: Joseph Addai, Indianapolis - Bet you thought I was going to take the easy way out with Reggie Bush, huh? Addai will be starting for the Colts by the end of the year, and with the threat of Peyton Manning and the aerial attack, he’ll find plenty of running space for a team that could (should?) win the AFC.
Honorable Mention: Reggie Bush, New Orleans; DeAngelo Williams, Carolina

Defensive Rookie of the Year: Brodrick Bunkley, Philadelphia - On a defense replete with pro bowl talent, Bunkley ascended to opening week starter despite missing the first 29 practices of training camp. You don’t do that if you’re not incredibly talented. Bunkley’s impact will be felt almost as quickly.
Honroable Mention: Kamerion Wimbley, Cleveland; Mario Williams, Houston

Coach of the Year: Andy Reid, Philadelphia - After all the Eagles had to endure last year, with the injuries and the sophomoric behavior of a particular piece of crap receiver, the Eagles will return to their rightful place among the NFC’s elite. Credit Reid for resurrecting the locker room that was split a year ago, and for his unwavering belief in his team’s leaders (McNabb, Dawkins, and Trotter) to handle the rest.
Honorable Mention: Marvin Lewis, Cincinnati; Brian Billick, Baltimore

Comeback Player of the Year: Daunte Culpepper, Miami - Not only has Culpepper made it all the way back from a knee injury that almost ended his career, but he’s landed on his feet with a new team and in perhaps the best possible situation with outstanding players around him.
Honorable Mention: Carson Palmer, Cincinnati; Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh

2006 NFC Preview

NFC East

Dallas Cowboys: They suck.
Fantasy Extra: I never comment on Cowboys players from a fantasy perspective, since they are never even under consideration. I told a couple of other Eagles fans in my league that if any of them drafted TOFU, I would kick them in the balls. We do have a Dallas fan in the league, and he of course drafted TOFU. I hope he enjoys his five weeks of TOFU, because his season ends October 8th when he goes across the middle and Brian Dawkins freakin’ obliterates him. That is, if TOFU doesn’t jake it and come up with another "strained hamstring."

New York Giants: The G-Men climbed to the top of the NFC East last season in Eli Manning’s first year as the full-time starter, largely because of his supporting cast. Since he re-committed himself to taking care of the football, Tiki Barber has been among the most valuable running backs in the league. Plaxico Burress came over from the Steelers after the 2004 year and put up 1,200+ yards as a perfect compliment to tight end Jeremy Shockey in the passing game. The Giants defense, featuring new linebacker LaVar Arrington, is strong, especially up front. Both Michael Strahan and Osi Umenyiora can get after the quarterback, which masks a suspect secondary. This should be the year Eli makes the leap, and the Giants are thinking more than playoffs this time around.
Fantasy Extra: Manning won’t put up the same numbers as big brother Peyton, but he should make fewer mistakes. The Giants love big back Brandon Jacobs in short yardage and goal line situations.

Philadelphia Eagles: The post-Super Bowl curse got the Eagles last year, and they sunk like a stone in the ocean. Sure, it had a lot to do with TOFU, but injuries to key players like Donovan McNabb and Brian Westbrook derailed the offense, and the cupboard behind them was bare. This year, things certainly look different. The Eagles are stronger along the offensive line (they average 6’5", 331 lbs), the receiving corps is deeper than most people want to give them credit for, and McNabb and Westbrook are healthy and ready to lead this team back to prominence. The defense appears re-focused and looks like the defense that carried the Birds to four straight NFC championship games. As favorable as the early schedule appears, the late schedule looks equally brutal. I love that the Eagles are flying under the radar. They are going to shock the world.
Fantasy Extra: The acquisition of Donte’ Stallworth might be just what the doctor ordered for McNabb. Westbrook is a threat to score every time he touches the ball. Keep an eye on WR Reggie Brown. David "Automatic" Akers should rack up the points.

Washington Redskins: Boy, have the Redskins had a tough pre-season. First, star running back Clinton Portis separated his shoulder in the first pre-season game (making a tackle following a Mark Brunell interception). Then, the ‘Skins got blasted 41-0 in New England. All this after Daniel Snyder bought everyone he wanted in the off-season (including Tom Cruise). The offense has struggled without Portis, and Gregg Williams’ defense has been shredded. The Redskins did go out and get T.J. Duckett, but he’s not a featured back. Washington was in the playoffs last year, but they don’t look like a playoff team right now. Are they really as bad as they seem, or did they just have a bad exhibition season? Time will tell.
Fantasy Extra: If Portis is healthy, he should benefit immensely from new offensive coordinator Al Saunders’ scheme as Larry Johnson did a year ago.

NFC North

Chicago Bears: How far can a defense carry a team? Well, in the NFC North, all the way to a division title and a first-round bye. Unfortunately for the Bears, the end of the line was that bye week. It’s not that the offense doesn’t have talent (both Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson are capable running backs). Quarterback Rex Grossman can’t seem to stay healthy, which prompted the signing of Brian Griese, who might unseat Grossman as the starter even if he’s not injured. The combination of Griese, Jones/Benson, and wide receiver Muhsin Muhammad should provide at least a little bit of offense. And with their defense and the lack of competition within the division, a little might be enough.
Fantasy Extra: All eleven starters from last year’s top ranked defense, including reigning defensive player of the year (LB Brian Urlacher), are back. Go ahead and take a chance on Griese.

Detroit Lions: There are those who believe that the Lions can legitimately challenge the Bears for the North division title. I do not happen to be among this group. I do think they have improved on offense with the addition of Jon Kitna (hey, they used to have Joey Harrington). But I’m not sure they’ve totally recovered from blowing three straight first round draft choices on receivers. One, Charles Rogers, was released yesterday, and the other, Mike Williams, is buried on the depth chart. I like Kevin Jones running the ball, and Roy Williams makes highlight-reel catches. Defensively, the Lions are solid, but not spectacular. They may be the second best team in the North, but that’s like being the second most talented Baldwin brother.
Fantasy Extra: Jones and Williams should put up decent numbers, and Kitna isn’t the worst option as a back-up QB. Kicker Jason Hanson remains reliable, especially with eight home games indoors.

Green Bay Packers: I’m the first guy to say that a player like Brett Favre should be able to walk away from the game on his own terms. But I’m shocked that he didn’t walk after last year. The 4-12 Packers certainly appear to have bottomed out, led by Favre and his 29 picks. At some point in time, they’re going to have to figure out if Aaron Rodgers can be a starter in this league or if they’re going to have to tank the year to try and get Brady Quinn. Ahman Green is over the hill, and Donald Driver is the only receiver who Favre seems to trust. The defense picked up some names (like corner Charles Woodson and linebacker A.J. Hawk, their number one draft choice), but the team is about two years overdue for re-building.
Fantasy Extra: For all of the interceptions, Favre still throws for a lot of yards and TD’s, probably because the Packers are often playing from behind. Wait, that didn’t really sound good. Let’s just move on…

Minnesota Vikings: To say that the 2005 Minnesota Vikings had off-field issues would be a colossal understatement. Mike Tice got busted for Super Bowl ticket scalping and was dismissed as head coach. There was also the infamous ‘Sex Cruise,’ which earned a couple of players a date in court. This year hasn’t started much better, with receiver Koren Robinson being released after his DUI and safety Dwight Smith’s public fornication arrest. Other than that, it’s a new era in Minnesota, with a new head coach (Brad Childress), an old quarterback (Brad Johnson), and a revamped defense that will be better than people expect, especially up front. It might not be enough to challenge Chicago, but Minnesota should be looking down at Detroit and Green Bay.
Fantasy Extra: The Vikings really like RB Chester Taylor, imported from Baltimore, for his versatility. The defense suffered a blow when LB Chad Greenway was lost for the year, but they’re still not a bad play with cupcakes like San Fran, Buffalo, the Jets and Green Bay on the schedule.

NFC South

Atlanta Falcons: Speaking to an Atlanta Falcons insider, I’ve got a pretty good feeling about this team. Their defense, which was their obvious weakness a year ago, is much improved with the acquisition of defensive end John Abraham and signing of run-stuffing tackle Grady Jackson and safety Lawyer Milloy. They also added another receiver in Ashley Lelie, who might actually be an asset to Ron Mexico for his ability to stretch the field. T.J. Duckett is gone, and the new back up to Warrick Dunn is a rookie with the look of a sensational back in Jerrious Norwood. About the only thing that isn’t in Atlanta’s favor is the schedule. The South is tough, plus the Falcons play the NFC East and NFC North, meaning games with the Giants, Eagles, Redskins, Ravens, Bengals, and Steelers. Tough sledding, indeed.
Fantasy Extra: Mexico’s favorite target is TE Alge Crumpler, and with the deep threats at wideout, Crumpler could put up big numbers. So could Dunn, who won’t be removed on the goal line anymore.

Carolina Panthers: There’s a reason that everyone is picking Carolina to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. They’re talented, they’re deep, they’re well-coached, and after last year’s loss in the NFC championship game, they’re hungry. The added players like receiver Keyshawn Johnson, linebacker Na’il Diggs, and rookie running back DeAngelo Williams who should all fill in gaps. The defense might be the best in the league, with playmakers like Julius Peppers, Kris Jenkins, Dan Morgan, Mike Minter and Chris Gamble. And I haven’t mentioned Steve Smith yet. Smith was constantly double-teamed last year and still managed to amass 1,500+ yards and 12 touchdowns. He’s scary good. If Jake Delhomme avoids major injury, the Panthers are as good as choice as any to end up in Miami.
Fantasy Extra: DeAngelo Williams is a fantasy sleeper. He was the NCAA’s all-purpose yardage leader, and not only will he return kicks but he’s the back-up to injury-prone RB DeShaun Foster.

New Orleans Saints: The good news for the Saints? Houston passed on Reggie Bush, so New Orleans drafted him number two. They get Deuce McAllister back from injury and sign free agent quarterback Drew Brees. They’ll actually play their home games in New Orleans after the Superdome re-opens after being damaged during Hurricane Katrina. The bad news? The Saints have a new head coach, a porous defense that can’t compete in the loaded NFC South, and they dealt receiver Donte’ Stallworth after his breakout year last year. Bush will bring some excitement, but the bottom line is the Saints are still light years behind the rest of the division (and most of the conference for that matter).
Fantasy Extra: Brees is coming off a major shoulder injury, and without Stallworth, his only option is the aging Joe Horn. McAllister will start at RB, but Bush will see a lot of reps.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Quick, who won the NFC South last year? You guessed it. The Bucs rode quarterback Chris Simms and rookie of the year running back Carnell "Cadillac" Williams to the division crown. Simms, now the unquestioned starter with Brian Griese jettisoned to Chicago, is poised for another big year. Jon Gruden is hoping that new receiver David Boston finds the same fountain of youth that Joey Galloway discovered last year. The rest of the offense is relatively unchanged. Another constant is the defense, with Super Bowl holdovers Simeon Rice, Derrick Brooks, and Ronde Barber. What is new are the expectations. Nobody was picking the Bucs last year and they kind of flew under the radar. How will they deal with the tables turned?
Fantasy Extra: Tampa had the top-ranked statistical defense last year, so look for them to maybe take a small step backwards. A sophomore slump for Cadillac? Hardly.

NFC West

Arizona Cardinals: There’s a lot of ‘New’ with the Arizona Cardinals. There’s a new franchise running back (Edgerrin James), a beautiful new stadium with a retractable roof and a natural grass field that gets rolled in on game days, and an all-new feeling of optimism within the organization. Why? In addition to the aforementioned, did you know that Kurt Warner led the league in 300-yard games last year? Or that the Cards own a pair of 1,000-yard receivers? Or that their defense was ranked eighth in the league last year? Eighth! Oh, and they drafted this Matt Leinart kid, who I hear was pretty good in college. Yes, there are a lot of people picking the Cards to not only make the playoffs, but maybe even challenge the defending NFC champion Seahawks for the division. Arizona hosting a playoff game that isn’t a Super Bowl. That certainly would be ‘New.’
Fantasy Extra: I was down on James at the beginning of training camp, but I’ve started to come around, and not just because I drafted him. In two games each against San Francisco and St. Louis, James should be good for 500 yards and 4-5 TD’s. Take a good hard look at Leinart. You know Warner is.

San Francisco 49ers: 2006 will be better for the 49ers. Why? Because, quite frankly, it can’t get worse than last year. Well, maybe it could. Mike Nolan enters his second year as head coach, and he continues to unload pieces of the old regime. Gone are linebackers Julian Peterson and Andre Carter, cornerback Mike Rumph, and running back Kevan Barlow. In are one-time pro-bowl guard Larry Allen and rookie freak tight end Vernon Davis. By all accounts, Smith has had a decent camp, but it will take a lot for the former number one overall pick to will this team. The defense is depleted, and the offense won’t be able to score enough to compensate for their deficiencies.
Fantasy Extra: The lone bright spot for the Niners could be RB Frank Gore, whose impressive rookie campaign made Barlow expendable.

Seattle Seahawks: I’ve been waiting for a team to buck the trend of Super Bowl losers failing to make the playoffs the following year. I think the wait is over. Seattle is still one of the most talented teams in the entire league, returning all-pros at quarterback (Matt Hasselbeck) and running back (league MVP Shaun Alexander). They’ve added versatile linebacker Julian Peterson to an already-strong defense. And, in case you haven’t noticed, the NFC West is relatively weak. Like the Eagles of two years ago, it would seemingly take a lot to keep Seattle from repeating as NFC champions. Lucky for them, TOFU can’t tear them apart.
Fantasy Extra: Alexander is still the top fantasy performer as far as I’m concerned. Hasselbeck has a great receiving corps with Nate Burleson coming over from the Vikings to pair with Darrell Jackson and Bobby Engram.

St. Louis Rams: Now that the tent has folded on "The Greatest Show on Turf," the Rams have committed to running the ball more, which makes sense since quarterback Marc Bulger seems to be hurt quite a bit. Running back Steven Jackson will be the focal point of the offense, though you could argue that St. Louis would still be better suited to attack through the air with receivers like Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce. Offense was never the question with the Rams, and they’ve changed coaches from the offensive-minded Mike Martz to the equally offensive-minded Scott Linehan, formerly with the Vikings. Again, defense is a major area of concern for St. Louis, and they won’t score 500 points like the Warner-Faulk-Holt Rams of old. Loosely translated, they’ll be on the outside looking in at the playoffs.
Fantasy Extra: Holt has been a model of consistency in terms of production, eclipsing 80 catches and 1,300 yards for the last six seasons. I’m not saying to dodge Bulger, but grab a capable back up just to be safe.

2006 AFC Preview

The pre-season is just about over, and thus begins my team-by-team capsule of all 32 teams. We'll start with the AFC, follow that up with the NFC, then lead into the weekly picks with the annual predictions column including division, wild card, and conference winners, MVP, and my exclusive 2006-07 Super Bowl champion (here's a hint - they wear midnight green and silver and hail from Philadelphia).

Before we get started, just wanted to pass along a quick update on "Bonzi's Pecans." The draft yielded fantasy standouts Tom Brady, Edge James, B-West, Plaxico, and the Colts defense. It also produced a pretty thin crop of wide receivers and a guy who is already out for the year (Jacksonville's Greg Jones, who at the time had a sprained MCL and would be available for the season opener). BP opens with a battle against Trent Green, LaDanian Tomlinson and the rest of "Action Jackson" in Week 1.

Here is your 2006-07 AFC Preview.

AFC East

Buffalo Bills: A few short years ago, Buffalo looked like a team on the rise. They had Drew Bledsoe, Travis Henry, Eric Moulds, and Peerless Price on offense and an above-average defense. Now, they’re basically starting over – again. The Bills recycled 118 year-old Marv Levy as GM and brought in Lions cast-off Dick Jauron as head coach. J.P. Losman won the starting quarterback job, which doesn’t sound that difficult. Willis McGahee looks to rebound from a disappointing 2005 season. Linebacker Takeo Spikes anchors the D, and he’s among the best in the game. But there’s not much help around him, and the schedule features trips to Chicago, Indianapolis, and Baltimore in addition to two games each with Miami and New England. Looks like the re-building of the Bills is still a work in progress.
Fantasy Extra: Other than McGahee, Buffalo’s top fantasy option is WR Lee Evans, who has scored 16 touchdowns in his two NFL seasons.

Miami Dolphins: In Week 15 of last season, I tabbed the Dolphins a potential sleeper in 2006, saying that Miami was a consistent quarterback away from challenging the Patriots in the East. Enter Daunte Culpepper, apparently fully recovered from a devastating knee injury suffered last October. Not since Randy Moss has Culpepper had a receiver like Chris Chambers, who is poised to have a sensational season. Second year man Ronnie Brown has all the makings of a pro-bowl running back. Did I mention that their defense is pretty good, too? Jason Taylor and Zack Thomas headline the stoppers. Super Bowl XLI is in Miami this year. Will the Fins get to play in the ultimate home game in February? Stay tuned…
Fantasy Extra: Take your pick – Culpepper, Brown, Chambers, and TE Randy McMichael, and Miami’s defense are all solid fantasy options.

New England Patriots: The Patriots had aspirations of a third consecutive championship last year, but something happened on the path to a three-peat. New England looks primed again, but they are (at present, anyway) missing a key player in wide receiver Deion Branch. Branch is looking to get paid like an elite receiver. Problem is, he’s never had a 1,000-yard season and never grabbed more than five touchdowns. He’s Tom Brady’s go-to guy, and he needs to get back with the team. Other than that, it looks like business as usual for Bill Belichick’s crew. The Patriots’ strength is on the defensive side of the ball with Richard Seymour and Tedy Bruschi. Until Miami runs them down, the Patriots are the team to beat in the East.
Fantasy Extra: Don’t sleep on rookie RB Laurence Maroney, who I think will supplant Corey Dillon as a starter by Week 8.

New York Jets: This was looking like a lean year for Gang Green even before Curtis Martin landed on the Physically Unable to Perform list. They’ve got a new head coach in Eric Mangini (a.k.a. Bill Belichick Lite), who named Chad Pennington as his starter at quarterback. The Jets will go with youngsters D’Brickashaw Ferguson and Nick Mangold on the O-line. To fill the void left by Martin’s injury, the Jets pried Kevan Barlow out of San Francisco. Rumor around the way is that they are in the Deion Branch discussion. While that would be a nice add, it won’t make them a playoff contended. The Jets suffered a major loss on defense when John Abraham was traded to Atlanta, and adding Kimo von Oelhoffen from the Steelers isn’t exactly the help that tackling-machine linebacker Jonathan Vilma could use.
Fantasy Extra: I personally wouldn’t trust Pennington, Barlow, or WR Laveranues Coles, would you?

AFC North

Baltimore Ravens: It appears as though the Kyle Boller experiment has ended in Baltimore, as the Ravens upgraded the quarterback position, reuniting Steve McNair with last year’s big acquisition, receiver Derrick Mason. They also added Mike Anderson from Denver and bolstered the defensive line with end Trevor Pryce and tackle Haloti Ngata. Oh, and they still have Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, Terrell Suggs, and Samari Rolle. Yeah, I like the Ravens chances this year. So should coach Brian Billick, because if the Ravens come up short of the post-season, Billick could be standing on the government cheese line in the spring.
Fantasy Extra: Remember how much McNair connected with TE Frank Wycheck when he was with Tennessee? Imagine the potential for Todd Heap. I’m predicting numbers for him this season.

Cincinnati Bengals: Suddenly the hunted instead of the hunter, the Bengals look to defend their division title of a season ago. Carson Palmer appears to be ready to go, and there is no doubt that he is the key to Cincinnati’s success (or failure). He’s got a dynamic receiver duo in Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh, and a franchise-type running back in Rudi Johnson. But the Bengals defense finished the 2005 season ranked 28th, which only emphasizes the importance of Palmer. As he goes, so go the Bengals (as witnessed in the playoffs last year). The rest of the North is better than they were a year ago, and the out-of-division schedule is loaded as well (at Tampa, Indy and Denver, home against New England, Carolina, Atlanta, and San Diego). If the Bengals are going to repeat, they’re going to have to earn it.
Fantasy Extra: Excessive celebration rule or not, WR Chad Johnson is sensational. But the guy to watch is Houshmandzadeh, who should see single-coverage with 85 on the other side of the field. Palmer led the league in touchdown passes a year ago. Rudi Johnson is a straight-up stud.

Cleveland Browns: When I called the Browns a potential sleeper for this year, I was looking at the potential of young guys like Charlie Frye and Braylon Edwards, plus the probable return of Corporal “Evil Kellen-evil” Winslow. They helped their case with the veteran leadership of Willie McGinest, receiver Joe Jurevicius, and prized free agent center LeCharles Bentley. Then Bentley pulled up lame in mini-camp. Regardless, the Browns are pointed in the right direction. But the ascent out of the North basement will be a slow one.
Fantasy Extra: Frye showed flashes at the end of the year, but you never know with first-time starting quarterbacks. Prior to his injury, Edwards looked like a game-breaker.

Pittsburgh Steelers: What’s not to like about a defending Super Bowl champion that as almost everybody coming back? That doesn’t mean there are no questions surrounding the Steelers. For starters, who replaces Jerome Bettis as the hammer on the goal line? Can Willie Parker replicate his success of a year ago? How serious is Hines Ward’s hamstring injury? Will the Bill Cowher Retirement Watch become a distraction? None of these issues take away from the fact that Pittsburgh is among the NFL’s elite. I’d be shocked if the Steelers didn’t make another deep run into the playoffs this year.
Fantasy Extra: If Parker can avoid wearing down as he did last year, he’s a legitimate number one fantasy back, especially since, minus The Bus, he should get more chances to punch the ball into the end zone.

AFC South

Houston Texans: The Texans took a BIG risk by passing on Reggie Bush in favor of defensive end Mario Williams. Whether or not that gamble pays off remains to be seen. Houston was active in the off-season, adding receiver Eric Moulds and tight end Jeb Putzier to run new coach Gary Kubiak’s offense. But an offensive line that continually allows quarterback David Carr little or no time to throw the ball is the Achilles Heel. Most of their off-season adds were on the defensive side of the ball, but Kubiak is in the midst of a scheme change, moving to the 4-3. The uncertain status on running back Domanick Davis further complicates matters. I don’t see the Texans making a serious run at the post-season. At least, not yet.
Fantasy Extra: If Davis can’t go, either Verrand Morency or Wali Lundy will start at RB. WR Andre Johnson should benefit from Moulds’ presence. That is, if Carr can stay upright.

Indianapolis Colts: For years the experts have wondered if the Colts could finally break through and win a championship. The more things change, the more they stay the same. Indianapolis lost one of its all-pro triplets, with Edgerrin James bolting for Arizona. But the Colts remain deep and talented on offense and will play running back by committee with Dominic Rhodes and rookie Joseph Addai. The defense, long a question mark, is good enough to carry this team far. It seems the only disconnect is between Peyton Manning’s ears. He got a rep in college as a guy who couldn’t win the big one. That rep has followed him to the pros, and until he’s the last man standing, that rep will persist. So, is this the year?
Fantasy Extra: Manning and WR Marvin Harrison are both consistent fantasy performers. The RB situation is up in the air. Indy’s defense is a potential fantasy powerhouse.

Jacksonville Jaguars: One of the most underrated defenses resides in Jacksonville, where head coach Jack Del Rio has put together a fast, aggressive, nasty unit. Del Rio was the architect of the Carolina Panthers defense, and this team has a similar feel. It all starts up front with tackles Marcus Stroud and John Henderson. The Jags defense needs to be good, because their offense is average. There’s a mini-quarterback controversy brewing, as some feel David Garrard should be under center instead of Byron Leftwich. Whoever starts will have a compliment of receivers trying to replace the retired Jimmy Smith. There is some big play potential there with Matt Jones and Reggie Williams. Jacksonville has been close to being very special. They simply need a couple of breaks to take it to the next level.
Fantasy Extra: Fred Taylor has been healthy for a few years now. Does that mean he’s due for a hamstring or groin pull? Ernest Wilford led the team in touchdown catches with 7 last season.

Tennessee Titans: Quite a conundrum in Nashville. The Titans have three quarterbacks and no starter, a bunch of running backs who want out of town or can’t stop spitting on teammates, and a first-round draft pick from a year ago at corner who can’t stay out of the back of police cars. They ran Steve McNair out of town, and there’s pressure for Jeff Fisher to throw Vince Young into a starting role. Young is probably not ready, hence the Kerry Collins signing. Chris Brown was thought to be on the block, but he’s still the starting running back. Adam “Pac Man” Jones has to be labeled a bust to this point in time. The Titans are a mess.
Fantasy Extra: Um, who is their kicker now?

AFC West

Denver Broncos: It was all set up for the Broncos last year. The AFC title game was in their barn. The sixth seeded Steelers were the opponent. And that was the moment Jake Plummer reverted back to his old ways. No wonder Denver tabbed Vanderbilt’s Jay Cutler as their quarterback of the future. Mike Shanahan must believe everything he hears about himself and how good his running system is, thus undrafted rookie Mike Bell starts behind the Snake. Denver won the Javon Walker sweepstakes, and their defense remains largely in tact. Denver’s got high hopes of hosting another AFC championship game, only this time they’re hoping for a better outcome.
Fantasy Extra: Having never played an NFL down, Mike Bell is a question mark. Tatum Bell is not out of the picture yet, either. No word on whether or not the Broncos are interested in signing Raja Bell, Jorge Bell, or Taco Bell.

Kansas City Chiefs: Expectations are high in K.C., not just for the team but for running back Larry Johnson as well. I’ve got to admit, when Johnson came out, I figured him to be the next great Penn State running back bust (Blair Thomas, Ki-Jana Carter, Curtis Enis). But he’s lived up to the hype. New coach Herm Edwards loves to run the football, which would seem to be a perfect fit for Johnson. The line may not be as strong as a year ago without left tackle Willie Roaf, but LJ will still get his. Trent Green is kind of a forgotten man in Kansas City, but he may be the key to the Chiefs playoff chances. The other key factor is the defense, where former head coach and defensive coordinator Gunther Cunningham returns. Bottom Line? LJ is electric, but he alone can’t carry this team into the post-season.
Fantasy Extra: Don’t let anybody fool you into taking Reggie Bush ahead of LJ. Remmember Tony Gonzalez? He’s still there, and will be Green’s go-to guy in the air again.

Oakland Raiders: You thought the Titans had quarterback issues? I did a double-take when I read the bottom line that said Oakland had signed Jeff George. Seriously? Isn’t he, like, 50? I mean, nobody thought Aaron Brooks was the answer. But they’ve got Andrew Walter, who Randy Moss seems to like. Why not go with him? LaMont Jordan will be facing nine and ten-man fronts. Oakland’s defense is a disaster. Warren Sapp is on the downside of his career, and Derrick Burgess likely won’t lead the league in sacks again. I hope Brady Quinn looks good in black, because the Raiders have the inside track on the first pick next April.
Fantasy Extra: If Walter plays, I like Moss. If not, avoid this team like the plague.

San Diego Chargers: The Chargers turn over a new leaf (sorry, poor choice of words) as the Philip Rivers era gets underway. Lucky for Rivers, he’s got perhaps the best all-around running back in LaDanian Tomlinson behind him. He’s also got a top tight end in Antonio Gates. Another break for Rivers? The Chargers open with Oakland and Tennessee before their bye in Week 3, meaning he should be able to ease into his new job. San Diego returns defensive rookie of the year Shawne Merriman as the playmaker in a 3-4 that was tops against the run in 2005. The Chargers are thinking playoffs, and I might be, too.
Fantasy Extra: If you don’t like Tomlinson’s game, you’ve got issues. I really like Rivers as a second QB. Watch for him to build a rapport with WR Eric Parker, who could be a gem.