The Week 7 Picks

Sunday, October 21, 2007

The Match-up: Tennessee (-1.5) @ Houston
The Skinny: The overwhelming story line remains the fact that Houston passed on native son Vince Young and he burned them twice last season. I know he’s dinged up, but you just know VY will play and likely be the difference maker – again.
Straight Up: Tennessee
Against the Spread: Tennessee

The Match-up: Tampa Bay (+2.0) @ Detroit
The Skinny: The Bucs have been one of the more pleasant surprises this season, yet they’re a dog on the road in Detroit. Tampa QB Jeff Garcia had a cup of coffee with the Lions a few years back and didn’t exactly light it up.
Straight Up: Detroit
Against the Spread: Detroit

The Match-up: New England (-16.5) @ Miami
The Skinny: Every week the Patriots are a double-digit favorite and every week I take the underdog and the points. A few problems with that strategy: 1) The Dolphins suck; 2) The Patriots are playing with a severe chip on their shoulder; 3) There’s no way New England is looking ahead to their potential AFC Championship game with the Colts next week.
Straight Up: New England
Against the Spread: New England

The Match-up: Atlanta (+9.0) @ New Orleans
The Skinny: Fresh off their Monday night loss to the Giants, the Falcons will elevate QB Byron Leftwich to the top of the depth chart. Whether or not he can elevate the Falcons remains to be seen.
Straight Up: New Orleans
Against the Spread: Atlanta

The Match-up: San Francisco (+9.0) @ New York Giants
The Skinny: Memo to 49ers cornerbacks – you may want to actually cover Plaxico Burress. He’ll be the guy behind you on his way to the end zone.
Straight Up: New York Giants
Against the Spread: New York Giants

The Match-up: Baltimore (-3.0) @ Buffalo
The Skinny: When last we saw the Bills, they were scaring the crap out of the Cowboys two Mondays ago. The problem is, that was their Super Bowl. No way they get up like that this week, especially against former Bill Willis McGahee who will likely run a little harder on Sunday.
Straight Up: Baltimore
Against the Spread: Baltimore

The Match-up: Arizona (+8.5) @ Washington
The Skinny: Kurt Warner will likely play (at least part-time) despite torn ligaments in his non-throwing elbow. The Cards will also have WR Anquan Boldin back from a hip injury.
Straight Up: Washington
Against the Spread: Arizona

The Match-up: Kansas City (+2.5) @ Oakland
The Skinny: The Chiefs were comfortable enough with the progress of Priest Holmes that they traded back-up RB Michael Bennett to Tampa. If they have to use Holmes, it’s probably bad news for Kansas City.
Straight Up: Oakland
Against the Spread: Oakland

The Match-up: New York Jets (+6.5) @ Cincinnati
The Skinny: Has there been a more disappointing team then the Bengals this season? Their defense is so bad that I even think the Jets can put up some points. Maybe not enough to win, but they’ll hang around.
Straight Up: Cincinnati
Against the Spread: New York Jets

The Match-up: Chicago (+5.5) @ Philadelphia
The Skinny: Last time I attended an Eagles game (December 2004), Donovan McNabb threw for over 300 yards and 5 TD’s…in the first half. Brian Westbrook scored three times and the Birds crushed the Packers. Guess where I’ll be on Sunday?
Straight Up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia

The Match-up: St. Louis (+8.5) @ Seattle
The Skinny: I think the Seahawks learned a lesson about taking a winless team lightly once the Saints marched in and did them in their own backyard. I don’t think Mike Holmgren will let that happen again.
Straight Up: Seattle
Against the Spread: Seattle

The Match-up: Minnesota (+9.5) @ Dallas
The Skinny: I believe some guy gave you Adrian Peterson as the rookie of the year for 2007. How’s he doing so far? He’s only leading the league in rushing and just hung 224 yards on the Bears last week. Hope TOFU has his popcorn ready for the "AD" show. "AD," by the way, stands for "All Day."
Straight Up: Minnesota
Against the Spread: Minnesota

The Match-up: Pittsburgh (-3.5) @ Denver
The Skinny: Flying under the radar thanks to all the attention being paid to New England and Indianapolis, the Steelers are having a great season and are looking at another win this week in Denver, who will be without WR Javon Walker indefinitely with a knee injury.
Straight Up: Pittsburgh
Against the Spread: Pittsburgh

Monday, October 22, 2007

The Match-up: Indianapolis (-3.0) @ Jacksonville
The Skinny: This is easily the most entertaining game of the weekend (except for the Eagles game, of course). The Jaguars always give the Colts fits, and now the Maurice Jones-Drew has awoken from his early-season slumber, I’d expect another tight one.
Straight Up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Indianapolis

Bye: Carolina, Cleveland, Green Bay, San Diego
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Week 5: 7-6 straight up; 4-7-2 against the spread
Season: 51-38; 34-47-8 (this is why I don’t gamble)