"You see? You See? He’s not a machine. He’s a man! He’s a man!" – Rocky IV
That quote best describes my overwhelming thought while watching the 24-point underdog Eagles go toe-to-toe with the Patriots on Sunday. The Eagles, playing the role of Rocky (which is only fitting), had the seemingly invincible Patriots (Ivan Drago) on the ropes. They had everyone outside of Boston in their corner. They were on a mission, and they weren’t going to be denied.
Not by Jabar Gaffney and his out-of-bounds touchdown (that mysteriously wasn’t reviewed).
Not by Tom Brady’s bobble-head act which drew a couple of offsides calls.
Not by Randy Moss and his offensive pass interference.
I was so confident that after Laurence Maroney scored to give the Patriots a 31-28 lead with seven minutes to go, I was certain the Eagles were going to drive down the field and score the winning touchdown. In fact, I started crafting my "I told you so" e-mail to everyone that doubted me when I said the Birds would win the game.
Long story short, the Patriots held on to win. Still, the Eagles had earned the respect of the Patriots, the NFL, and perhaps more importantly the people of Philadelphia.
The aftermath of that game resulted in two popular misconceptions:
1. The Eagles had unveiled the blue print for beating New England to the rest of the NFL – while some of the Patriots’ deficiencies were exposed. The Eagles had a perfect game plan on offense, using the middle of the field almost exclusively. In theory, any team can do this. The difference was on defense, where the Eagles constantly pressured Brady and played press man coverage on Moss, which took him out of the game. Not every team has the personnel to match up with New England as well as the Eagles do. Even employing the same game plan does not guarantee future opponents like Baltimore and the Giants success.
2. If the Eagles play as well as they did against New England, they should win out – they key word, of course, is "if." Will the Andy Reid continue to coach as if he’s got nothing to lose? Will the players be motivated to play Seattle, New Orleans, and Buffalo, against whom they’re likely to be favored? There’s another major variable here, namely who quarterbacks this team for the rest of the season?
Not counting Thanksgiving night, this week begins the NFL Network’s live game broadcasts, which are seemingly available in only 10% of households. Great idea, NFL. The NHL on Versus thinks this is a bad idea.
Thursday, November 29, 2007
The Match-up: Green Bay (+7.0) @ Dallas
The Skinny: If Indianapolis-New England was Super Bowl 41.5, what would you call 10-1 Green Bay at 10-1 Dallas? Hopefully we call it Brett Favre’s first ever victory at the toilet that is Texas Stadium.
Straight Up: Green Bay
Against the Spread: Green Bay
Sunday, December 2, 2007
The Match-up: New York Jets (+1.5) @ Miami
The Skinny: OK, the fact that Miami is favored in this game tells me something. Basically, if they don’t win this one, they’re looking at 0-16, and perhaps LSU’s Glenn Dorsey.
Straight Up: Miami
Against the Spread: Miami
The Match-up: Detroit (+3.5) @ Minnesota
The Skinny: Don’t look now, but the Vikings have won three of their last four and, at 5-6, are in the wild card hunt in the NFC. I think some guy gave you that one back in September.
Straight Up: Minnesota
Against the Spread: Minnesota
The Match-up: Seattle (+3.0) @ Philadelphia
The Skinny: The sad thing for me, as a huge Donovan McNabb fan, is that this is starting to look like his last season with the Eagles.
Straight Up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia
The Match-up: Houston (+3.5) @ Tennessee
The Skinny: Tennessee frightens me from a gambling perspective. For that matter, so does Houston. I haven’t been able to get an accurate read on either of these teams all year. One week they look like playoff contenders, the next they get run off the field by an inferior opponent. I have to go with Vegas on this one, because quite frankly I don’t have a clue.
Straight Up: Tennessee
Against the Spread: Tennessee
The Match-up: Jacksonville (+6.5) @ Indianapolis
The Skinny: How about the Jaguars for a dark horse AFC team? They’ve got a very good defense, a great running game, and efficient quarterback who doesn’t make mistakes. Sounds like a winning formula to me.
Straight Up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Jacksonville
The Match-up: Buffalo (+5.5) @ Washington
The Skinny: In the wake of the murder of safety Sean Taylor, the Redskins are slated for two games over the next nine days. Not sure if they’ll be emotionally high or drained. I’ve got to figure the ‘Skins will rally around their fallen teammate, at least this week. R.I.P., Sean.
Straight Up: Washington
Against the Spread: Washington
The Match-up: San Diego (-5.5) @ Kansas City
The Skinny: The Chiefs fell to Oakland by three last week when coach Herm Edwards opted to go for it on 4th and 1 instead of attempting the 41-yard field goal. Um, coach? YOU PLAY TO TIE THE GAME! Hello?
Straight Up: San Diego
Against the Spread: San Diego
The Match-up: San Francisco (+3.0) @ Carolina
The Skinny: The Panthers are a mess right now. Let’s start with the fact that they haven’t won a home game in a calendar year. Steve Smith has a hamstring injury and is doubtful. Not that it matters with the guys they’re running out there at quarterback. And, Coach John Fox is rumored to be on the outs. I’ll take the Niners, who welcome Frank Gore back from the witness protection program. Wonder if he was hanging with Shaun Alexander.
Straight Up: San Francisco
Against the Spread: San Francisco
The Match-up: Atlanta (Off) @ St. Louis
The Skinny: I’d be more excited about the Rams if they hadn’t just coughed up a 19-7 lead at home last week. Or if they didn’t have to roll Gus Frerotte out there at quarterback.
Straight Up: St. Louis
Against the Spread: St. Louis
The Match-up: Cleveland (Pick) @ Arizona
The Skinny: Speaking of coughing things up, I don’t ever recall seeing a team lose in overtime because the quarterback fumbled the ball in his own end zone and the defense recovered for the game-winning score. Ladies and gentlemen, your 2007 Arizona Cardinals!
Straight Up: Cleveland
Against the Spread: Cleveland
The Match-up: Denver (-3.5) @ Oakland
The Skinny: If Denver misses the playoffs by a game, they can point squarely to last week’s tank job against the Bears in Chicago. Memo to Mike Shanahan – you may want to kick it away from Devin Hester.
Straight Up: Denver
Against the Spread: Denver
The Match-up: Tampa Bay (+3.0) @ New Orleans
The Skinny: If the Buccaneers can beat the Saints, they’ll open a three-game lead in the NFC South with four games to play. But the Saints have battled back to 5-6 after their 0-4 start, so I don’t expect them to go away without a fight.
Straight Up: New Orleans
Against the Spread: New Orleans
The Match-up: New York Giants (-1.5) @ Chicago
The Skinny: Can we officially label Eli Manning a bust yet? I’m not sure Cooper Manning could throw four interceptions with three going the other way for scores.
Straight Up: Chicago
Against the Spread: Chicago
The Match-up: Cincinnati (+7.0) @ Pittsburgh
The Skinny: Nice to see Ocho Cinco breaking out of his scoring drought with three touchdowns last week. Still, I’m not sure I understand the celebration. Hijacking the TV camera? Not really funny, OC.
Straight Up: Pittsburgh
Against the Spread: Pittsburgh
Monday, December 3, 2007
The Match-up: New England (-20.5) @ Baltimore
The Skinny: Maybe the Eagles game last week was more of a wake-up call to the Patriots than it was a blueprint for the rest of the league. Either way, it wouldn’t surprise me to see them hang 56 on a Baltimore defense that is a shell of its former self.
Straight Up: New England
Against the Spread: New England
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Week 12: 8-8 straight up; 9-7 against the spread
Season: 103-73 (.585); 80-85-11 (.485)
Thursday, November 29, 2007
Wednesday, November 21, 2007
The Week 12 Picks
As promised, here are the brief Thanksgiving week picks (home team in CAPS).
Thursday, November 22, 2007
Green Bay (-3.5) over DETROIT - This goes against my Thanksgiving tradition, but the Packers are too good to overlook.
New York Jets (+14.0) over DALLAS - Picking against Dallas is as much a Thanksgiving tradition as turkey, mashed potatoes, and suffering through the annual Thanksiving parade just to catch a glimpse of Kelly Ripa.
ATLANTA (+11.5) over Indianapolis - I like the Colts straight up, but with Harrison and Freeney on the shelf, they don't blow teams out.
Sunday, November 25, 2007
JACKSONVILLE (-7.5) over Buffalo - Buffalo hasn't been the same since the Dallas loss.
CLEVELAND (-3.5) over Houston - In New York, it's pronounced "Hows-ton."
KANSAS CITY (-5.5) over Oakland - Put JaMarcus Russell in, already!
ST. LOUIS (+3.0) over Seattle - Seattle typically struggles on the road, and the Rams have won two straight.
Minnesota (+7.0) over NEW YORK GIANTS - I like the Giants to win a close one.
TAMPA BAY (-3.0) over Washington - Jon Gruden to Michigan?
New Orleans (+3.0) over CAROLINA - Without Steve Smith, the Panthers offense really struggles.
Tennessee (Even) over CINCINNATI - I think I could score on the Bengals' defense.
San Francisco (+10.5) over ARIZONA - The Cardinals should win, though.
SAN DIEGO (-9.5) over Baltimore - The Ravens are awful.
CHICAGO (-2.5) over Denver - The Broncos aren't much better.
Philadelphia (+22.0) over NEW ENGLAND - Straight up AND against the spread!!!
Monday, November 26, 2007
PITTSBURGH (-16.0) over Miami - The Steelers severely underestimated the lowly Jets last week. No way Omar Epps lets them overlook the winless Dolphins.
Happy Thanksgiving to you and yours!
Thursday, November 22, 2007
Green Bay (-3.5) over DETROIT - This goes against my Thanksgiving tradition, but the Packers are too good to overlook.
New York Jets (+14.0) over DALLAS - Picking against Dallas is as much a Thanksgiving tradition as turkey, mashed potatoes, and suffering through the annual Thanksiving parade just to catch a glimpse of Kelly Ripa.
ATLANTA (+11.5) over Indianapolis - I like the Colts straight up, but with Harrison and Freeney on the shelf, they don't blow teams out.
Sunday, November 25, 2007
JACKSONVILLE (-7.5) over Buffalo - Buffalo hasn't been the same since the Dallas loss.
CLEVELAND (-3.5) over Houston - In New York, it's pronounced "Hows-ton."
KANSAS CITY (-5.5) over Oakland - Put JaMarcus Russell in, already!
ST. LOUIS (+3.0) over Seattle - Seattle typically struggles on the road, and the Rams have won two straight.
Minnesota (+7.0) over NEW YORK GIANTS - I like the Giants to win a close one.
TAMPA BAY (-3.0) over Washington - Jon Gruden to Michigan?
New Orleans (+3.0) over CAROLINA - Without Steve Smith, the Panthers offense really struggles.
Tennessee (Even) over CINCINNATI - I think I could score on the Bengals' defense.
San Francisco (+10.5) over ARIZONA - The Cardinals should win, though.
SAN DIEGO (-9.5) over Baltimore - The Ravens are awful.
CHICAGO (-2.5) over Denver - The Broncos aren't much better.
Philadelphia (+22.0) over NEW ENGLAND - Straight up AND against the spread!!!
Monday, November 26, 2007
PITTSBURGH (-16.0) over Miami - The Steelers severely underestimated the lowly Jets last week. No way Omar Epps lets them overlook the winless Dolphins.
Happy Thanksgiving to you and yours!
Friday, November 16, 2007
The Week 11 Picks
Apologies for the brevity of these picks, but it’s getaway day. I’m heading home for my annual Thanksgiving vacation with the family. So if you thought this week’s picks are quickies, wait until you see next week’s.
Sunday, November 18, 2007
The Match-up: San Diego (+3.0) @ Jacksonville
The Skinny: Take out the two return touchdowns by Darren Sproles and the Chargers aren’t even in that game with Indy last week. These things have a way of evening out.
Straight Up: Jacksonville
Against the Spread: Jacksonville
The Match-up: Cleveland (-3.0) @ Baltimore
The Skinny: Kyle Boller is back under center for the Ravens, who desperately need something from that side of the ball.
Straight Up: Cleveland
Against the Spread: Cleveland
The Match-up: New York Giants (-3.0) @ Detroit
The Skinny: Last week may have been the beginning of the annual Giants second-half collapse.
Straight Up: Detroit
Against the Spread: Detroit
The Match-up: New Orleans (+1.5) @ Houston
The Skinny: Remember when Vince Young torched Houston last year after they passed on drafting him? Same situation with Reggie Bush.
Straight Up: New Orleans
Against the Spread: New Orleans
The Match-up: Carolina (+9.5) @ Green Bay
The Skinny: Did you see the play where Favre threw it into double coverage last week and both Vikings had their hands on the ball, ,but it bounced off of them and Ruvell Martin caught it for a Packers touchdown? Sometimes you just get the bounces.
Straight Up: Green Bay
Against the Spread: Green Bay
The Match-up: Kansas City (+14.5) @ Indianapolis
The Skinny: The Chiefs will be without Larry Johnson, and there’s no way the Colts lose three in a row.
Straight Up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Indianapolis
The Match-up: Oakland (+5.0) @ Minnesota
The Skinny: No word on whether or not Daunte Culpepper will be chartering a sex cruise to bring him into town.
Straight Up: Oakland
Against the Spread: Oakland
The Match-up: Miami (+10.0) @ Philadelphia
The Skinny: The Birds couldn’t possibly lose to winless Miami and a rookie QB making his first NFL start, could they?
Straight Up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia
The Match-up: Tampa Bay (-3.0) @ Atlanta
The Skinny: Think about this – if the Falcons win this game, they could be a game out of the division lead. What a putrid bunch of football teams in the NFC South.
Straight Up: Tampa Bay
Against the Spread: Tampa Bay
The Match-up: Arizona (+3.0) @ Cincinnati
The Skinny: Cincinnati has to get untracked sooner or later, don’t they?
Straight Up: Cincinnati
Against the Spread: Cincinnati
The Match-up: Pittsburgh (-9.5) @ New York Jets
The Skinny: With all of the injuries in Indianapolis, I’m almost ready to crown the Steelers as the NFL’s second best team.
Straight Up: Pittsburgh
Against the Spread: Pittsburgh
The Match-up: Washington (+10.5) @ Dallas
The Skinny: Gee, let me think.
Straight Up: Washington
Against the Spread: Washington
The Match-up: St. Louis (-3.0) @ San Francisco
The Skinny: The Rams are getting healthy and showed flashes of what they can do at full power last week.
Straight Up: St. Louis
Against the Spread: St. Louis
The Match-up: Chicago (+5.5) @ Seattle
The Skinny: Rex Grossman returns from purgatory this week, but even Kyle Boller thinks that’s irrelevant.
Straight Up: Seattle
Against the Spread: Seattle
The Match-up: New England (-16.0) @ Buffalo
The Skinny: No, I don’t think the Patriots are set up for a let down. But off the bye and the highly emotional game at RCA Dome, I could see them in a tight one.
Straight Up: New England
Against the Spread: Buffalo
Monday, November 19, 2007
The Match-up: Tennessee (+2.0) @ Denver
The Skinny: So a potential playoff team in the loaded AFC is getting points? I’ll take them.
Straight Up: Tennessee
Against the Spread: Tennessee
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Week 10: 7-7 straight up; 7-6-1 against the spread
Season: 86-58; 65-70-9
Sunday, November 18, 2007
The Match-up: San Diego (+3.0) @ Jacksonville
The Skinny: Take out the two return touchdowns by Darren Sproles and the Chargers aren’t even in that game with Indy last week. These things have a way of evening out.
Straight Up: Jacksonville
Against the Spread: Jacksonville
The Match-up: Cleveland (-3.0) @ Baltimore
The Skinny: Kyle Boller is back under center for the Ravens, who desperately need something from that side of the ball.
Straight Up: Cleveland
Against the Spread: Cleveland
The Match-up: New York Giants (-3.0) @ Detroit
The Skinny: Last week may have been the beginning of the annual Giants second-half collapse.
Straight Up: Detroit
Against the Spread: Detroit
The Match-up: New Orleans (+1.5) @ Houston
The Skinny: Remember when Vince Young torched Houston last year after they passed on drafting him? Same situation with Reggie Bush.
Straight Up: New Orleans
Against the Spread: New Orleans
The Match-up: Carolina (+9.5) @ Green Bay
The Skinny: Did you see the play where Favre threw it into double coverage last week and both Vikings had their hands on the ball, ,but it bounced off of them and Ruvell Martin caught it for a Packers touchdown? Sometimes you just get the bounces.
Straight Up: Green Bay
Against the Spread: Green Bay
The Match-up: Kansas City (+14.5) @ Indianapolis
The Skinny: The Chiefs will be without Larry Johnson, and there’s no way the Colts lose three in a row.
Straight Up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Indianapolis
The Match-up: Oakland (+5.0) @ Minnesota
The Skinny: No word on whether or not Daunte Culpepper will be chartering a sex cruise to bring him into town.
Straight Up: Oakland
Against the Spread: Oakland
The Match-up: Miami (+10.0) @ Philadelphia
The Skinny: The Birds couldn’t possibly lose to winless Miami and a rookie QB making his first NFL start, could they?
Straight Up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia
The Match-up: Tampa Bay (-3.0) @ Atlanta
The Skinny: Think about this – if the Falcons win this game, they could be a game out of the division lead. What a putrid bunch of football teams in the NFC South.
Straight Up: Tampa Bay
Against the Spread: Tampa Bay
The Match-up: Arizona (+3.0) @ Cincinnati
The Skinny: Cincinnati has to get untracked sooner or later, don’t they?
Straight Up: Cincinnati
Against the Spread: Cincinnati
The Match-up: Pittsburgh (-9.5) @ New York Jets
The Skinny: With all of the injuries in Indianapolis, I’m almost ready to crown the Steelers as the NFL’s second best team.
Straight Up: Pittsburgh
Against the Spread: Pittsburgh
The Match-up: Washington (+10.5) @ Dallas
The Skinny: Gee, let me think.
Straight Up: Washington
Against the Spread: Washington
The Match-up: St. Louis (-3.0) @ San Francisco
The Skinny: The Rams are getting healthy and showed flashes of what they can do at full power last week.
Straight Up: St. Louis
Against the Spread: St. Louis
The Match-up: Chicago (+5.5) @ Seattle
The Skinny: Rex Grossman returns from purgatory this week, but even Kyle Boller thinks that’s irrelevant.
Straight Up: Seattle
Against the Spread: Seattle
The Match-up: New England (-16.0) @ Buffalo
The Skinny: No, I don’t think the Patriots are set up for a let down. But off the bye and the highly emotional game at RCA Dome, I could see them in a tight one.
Straight Up: New England
Against the Spread: Buffalo
Monday, November 19, 2007
The Match-up: Tennessee (+2.0) @ Denver
The Skinny: So a potential playoff team in the loaded AFC is getting points? I’ll take them.
Straight Up: Tennessee
Against the Spread: Tennessee
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Week 10: 7-7 straight up; 7-6-1 against the spread
Season: 86-58; 65-70-9
Friday, November 09, 2007
The Week 10 Picks
They say bad things come in threes. After last weekend, I believe them.
I spent the better part of Saturday afternoon watching the alleged offensive genius that is Charlie Weis channel his inner Bob Davie, make questionable call after questionable call, and single-handedly cost the Irish a game against Navy. In case you’ve been living under a rock, I’m sure you heard that the loss snapped Notre Dame’s 43-year winning streak over the Midshipmen.
In the grand scheme of things, the loss serves as just another blemish on an utterly disappointing season. What worries me is how they lost. Notre Dame was leading 21-20 and just forced Navy into a field gold attempt, which was no good. At that point in time, if the offense could drive the length of the field, eat up a lot of clock, and score a touchdown, Notre Dame would have led by eight and put Navy in the precarious position of needing a touchdown and two-point conversion just to force overtime, understanding that Navy’s triple option offense is heavily run-oriented and not built for a quick strike.
On first down, Weis called a pass play. Incomplete.
On second down, he called another pass play. QB Evan Sharpley was sacked, put the ball on the ground, and Navy scooped it up and ran it in for a touchdown. Tack on the deuce, and now the Irish are trailing by seven.
After the ensuing kickoff, Notre Dame started a clock-killing, run-first drive that culminated in a touchdown to tie the game (do that with the previous possession and the Irish more than likely win). Then they get the ball back again and march into field goal range. Fourth and eight, less than a minute to go, and Notre Dame can kick a 41-yard field goal to win the game.
Except that Weis opted to go for it.
Sharpley gets sacked, Navy runs out the majority of the clock, and three overtimes later, the Naval Academy is cancelling Monday classes so that the students can continue the celebration.
Look, Charlie Weis knows more about football than I ever will. I’m sure there was a method to his madness. But mismanaging games like that is what caused me to boycott ND games by the end of the Malibu Ken Davie era (I give you Davie calling a corner blitz on 4th and 14 with Michigan State at their own 32, only to watch Herb Haygood run a slant behind the blitzing corner and go 68 yards for the game-winning score). Hopefully this was an anomaly and not a pattern.
So I was hoping Sunday night’s Eagles-Cowboys game would provide some measure of redemption. After all, the Eagles were 12-4 against the Cowboys during the Andy Reid administration, and they should have played with some desperation with their season hanging in the balance.
First play from scrimmage, Donovan McNabb scrambles, gets hit from behind, coughs up the rock, and Dallas is in the end zone within two minutes. The air was out of the balloon, and the Birds got rolled. It didn’t help that TOFU went for 174 yards and a score on ten grabs. Bastard.
The loss dropped the Eagles to 3-5 and led to Philadelphia fans and media calling for Kevin Kolb. Reid has said he is sticking with McNabb…for now. In my estimation, it’s still too early for Reid to pull the trigger on that move, which would in essence end McNabb’s tenure in Philly. Kolb’s time will come, but it’s not now.
What’s the third bad thing? Take your pick – the Northeast Box Company falls for the first time in three weeks (Antonio Gates, one catch for ten yards?); the Flyers are shut out by the Rangers on Monday night; the Steelers crush the hapless Ravens, rendering my last minute switch to Baltimore +9 futile.
Maybe bad things come in fives.
Sunday, November 11, 2007
The Match-up: Cleveland (+9.5) @ Pittsburgh
The Skinny: Even if you’re not from either city, you’ve got to love Browns-Steelers. Pittsburgh manhandled Baltimore on Monday and is easily the third best team in the AFC. But this isn’t the same Cleveland team that the Steelers feasted on in Week 1.
Straight Up: Pittsburgh
Against the Spread: Cleveland
The Match-up: Minnesota (+6.0) @ Green Bay
The Skinny: I believe Adrian Peterson has locked up the Rookie of the Year award (as some guy predicted he would way back in August). He’s halfway to Eric Dickerson’s single-season record 2,105 rushing yards.
Straight Up: Green Bay
Against the Spread: Minnesota
The Match-up: Philadelphia (+3.0) @ Washington
The Skinny: Okay, NOW the Eagles have no margin for error. Beat Washington and Miami in consecutive weeks (doable) to get back to .500, then figure out how the final six games of the year will play out. It’s time to put the puzzle together.
Straight Up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia
The Match-up: Jacksonville (+4.0) @ Tennessee
The Skinny: Two very good defenses plus two relatively anemic offenses equals a closely contested low scoring football game.
Straight Up: Tennessee
Against the Spread: Jacksonville
The Match-up: Atlanta (+4.0) @ Carolina
The Skinny: Carolina should have Vinny Testaverde back under center, which should be music to Steve Smith’s ears.
Straight Up: Carolina
Against the Spread: Carolina
The Match-up: Denver (+3.0) @ Kansas City
The Skinny: If Larry Johnson can’t go with a bad ankle, Priest Holmes will get the starting nod at running back. What an inspiring story, the kind we don’t see enough in sports anymore.
Straight Up: Kansas City
Against the Spread: Kansas City
The Match-up: Buffalo (-3.0) @ Miami
The Skinny: So maybe the Bills aren’t as bad as expected. They’re 4-4 and could be 6-2 had they not lost to Denver and Dallas on the last play of the game after outplaying them both. As long as they don’t get caught looking ahead to New England next week, they should roll the winless Dolphins.
Straight Up: Buffalo
Against the Spread: Buffalo
The Match-up: St. Louis (+11.5) @ New Orleans
The Skinny: The streaking Saints have their sites set on the NFC South title and a return to the playoffs. The Rams, on the other hand, should have their sites set on LSU’s Glenn Dorsey or Michigan’s Jake Long to shore up one of their lines.
Straight Up: New Orleans
Against the Spread: St. Louis
The Match-up: Cincinnati (+4.0) @ Baltimore
The Skinny: So Chris Henry was reinstated by Roger Goodell, and his first day back on the job ends with an altercation with a parking lot attendant. Henry even played the "Do you know who I am?" card. Good to see that a Bengal doesn’t change his stripes.
Straight Up: Cincinnati
Against the Spread: Cincinnati
The Match-up: Chicago (-3.0) @ Oakland
The Skinny: Raiders coach Lane Kiffin said he will kick to Devin Hester in an effort to jump-start his 27th ranked kickoff coverage team. For that reason alone, I like the Bears.
Straight Up: Chicago
Against the Spread: Chicago
The Match-up: Dallas (-1.5) @ New York Giants
The Skinny: With all due respect to the Saints, the Giants are the hottest team in the NFC, having won six straight after opening the year 0-2. I guess the Giants will have to take care of the business the Eagles couldn’t a week ago.
Straight Up: New York Giants
Against the Spread: New York Giants
The Match-up: Detroit (+1.0) @ Arizona
The Skinny: Even the most optimistic Detroit fan will tell you that this is the only time the Lions will be playing in Arizona this season.
Straight Up: Detroit
Against the Spread: Detroit
The Match-up: Indianapolis (-3.5) @ San Diego
The Skinny: Just when you thought it was safe to call the Chargers a contender again, they get housed by AD and the Vikings. They could catch the Colts in a potential let-down situation coming off their crushing defeat to the Patriots, but it seems unlikely.
Straight Up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Indianapolis
Monday, November 12, 2007
The Match-up: San Francisco (+10.0) @ Seattle
The Skinny: A running back is only as good as his offensive line. Have you noticed how Shaun Alexander has declined since Steve Hutchinson left for Minnesota?
Straight Up: Seattle
Against the Spread: Seattle
Bye: Houston, New England, New York Jets, Tampa Bay
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Week 9: 10-4 straight up; 7-7 against the spread
Season: 79-51 (.608); 58-64-8 (.475)
I spent the better part of Saturday afternoon watching the alleged offensive genius that is Charlie Weis channel his inner Bob Davie, make questionable call after questionable call, and single-handedly cost the Irish a game against Navy. In case you’ve been living under a rock, I’m sure you heard that the loss snapped Notre Dame’s 43-year winning streak over the Midshipmen.
In the grand scheme of things, the loss serves as just another blemish on an utterly disappointing season. What worries me is how they lost. Notre Dame was leading 21-20 and just forced Navy into a field gold attempt, which was no good. At that point in time, if the offense could drive the length of the field, eat up a lot of clock, and score a touchdown, Notre Dame would have led by eight and put Navy in the precarious position of needing a touchdown and two-point conversion just to force overtime, understanding that Navy’s triple option offense is heavily run-oriented and not built for a quick strike.
On first down, Weis called a pass play. Incomplete.
On second down, he called another pass play. QB Evan Sharpley was sacked, put the ball on the ground, and Navy scooped it up and ran it in for a touchdown. Tack on the deuce, and now the Irish are trailing by seven.
After the ensuing kickoff, Notre Dame started a clock-killing, run-first drive that culminated in a touchdown to tie the game (do that with the previous possession and the Irish more than likely win). Then they get the ball back again and march into field goal range. Fourth and eight, less than a minute to go, and Notre Dame can kick a 41-yard field goal to win the game.
Except that Weis opted to go for it.
Sharpley gets sacked, Navy runs out the majority of the clock, and three overtimes later, the Naval Academy is cancelling Monday classes so that the students can continue the celebration.
Look, Charlie Weis knows more about football than I ever will. I’m sure there was a method to his madness. But mismanaging games like that is what caused me to boycott ND games by the end of the Malibu Ken Davie era (I give you Davie calling a corner blitz on 4th and 14 with Michigan State at their own 32, only to watch Herb Haygood run a slant behind the blitzing corner and go 68 yards for the game-winning score). Hopefully this was an anomaly and not a pattern.
So I was hoping Sunday night’s Eagles-Cowboys game would provide some measure of redemption. After all, the Eagles were 12-4 against the Cowboys during the Andy Reid administration, and they should have played with some desperation with their season hanging in the balance.
First play from scrimmage, Donovan McNabb scrambles, gets hit from behind, coughs up the rock, and Dallas is in the end zone within two minutes. The air was out of the balloon, and the Birds got rolled. It didn’t help that TOFU went for 174 yards and a score on ten grabs. Bastard.
The loss dropped the Eagles to 3-5 and led to Philadelphia fans and media calling for Kevin Kolb. Reid has said he is sticking with McNabb…for now. In my estimation, it’s still too early for Reid to pull the trigger on that move, which would in essence end McNabb’s tenure in Philly. Kolb’s time will come, but it’s not now.
What’s the third bad thing? Take your pick – the Northeast Box Company falls for the first time in three weeks (Antonio Gates, one catch for ten yards?); the Flyers are shut out by the Rangers on Monday night; the Steelers crush the hapless Ravens, rendering my last minute switch to Baltimore +9 futile.
Maybe bad things come in fives.
Sunday, November 11, 2007
The Match-up: Cleveland (+9.5) @ Pittsburgh
The Skinny: Even if you’re not from either city, you’ve got to love Browns-Steelers. Pittsburgh manhandled Baltimore on Monday and is easily the third best team in the AFC. But this isn’t the same Cleveland team that the Steelers feasted on in Week 1.
Straight Up: Pittsburgh
Against the Spread: Cleveland
The Match-up: Minnesota (+6.0) @ Green Bay
The Skinny: I believe Adrian Peterson has locked up the Rookie of the Year award (as some guy predicted he would way back in August). He’s halfway to Eric Dickerson’s single-season record 2,105 rushing yards.
Straight Up: Green Bay
Against the Spread: Minnesota
The Match-up: Philadelphia (+3.0) @ Washington
The Skinny: Okay, NOW the Eagles have no margin for error. Beat Washington and Miami in consecutive weeks (doable) to get back to .500, then figure out how the final six games of the year will play out. It’s time to put the puzzle together.
Straight Up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia
The Match-up: Jacksonville (+4.0) @ Tennessee
The Skinny: Two very good defenses plus two relatively anemic offenses equals a closely contested low scoring football game.
Straight Up: Tennessee
Against the Spread: Jacksonville
The Match-up: Atlanta (+4.0) @ Carolina
The Skinny: Carolina should have Vinny Testaverde back under center, which should be music to Steve Smith’s ears.
Straight Up: Carolina
Against the Spread: Carolina
The Match-up: Denver (+3.0) @ Kansas City
The Skinny: If Larry Johnson can’t go with a bad ankle, Priest Holmes will get the starting nod at running back. What an inspiring story, the kind we don’t see enough in sports anymore.
Straight Up: Kansas City
Against the Spread: Kansas City
The Match-up: Buffalo (-3.0) @ Miami
The Skinny: So maybe the Bills aren’t as bad as expected. They’re 4-4 and could be 6-2 had they not lost to Denver and Dallas on the last play of the game after outplaying them both. As long as they don’t get caught looking ahead to New England next week, they should roll the winless Dolphins.
Straight Up: Buffalo
Against the Spread: Buffalo
The Match-up: St. Louis (+11.5) @ New Orleans
The Skinny: The streaking Saints have their sites set on the NFC South title and a return to the playoffs. The Rams, on the other hand, should have their sites set on LSU’s Glenn Dorsey or Michigan’s Jake Long to shore up one of their lines.
Straight Up: New Orleans
Against the Spread: St. Louis
The Match-up: Cincinnati (+4.0) @ Baltimore
The Skinny: So Chris Henry was reinstated by Roger Goodell, and his first day back on the job ends with an altercation with a parking lot attendant. Henry even played the "Do you know who I am?" card. Good to see that a Bengal doesn’t change his stripes.
Straight Up: Cincinnati
Against the Spread: Cincinnati
The Match-up: Chicago (-3.0) @ Oakland
The Skinny: Raiders coach Lane Kiffin said he will kick to Devin Hester in an effort to jump-start his 27th ranked kickoff coverage team. For that reason alone, I like the Bears.
Straight Up: Chicago
Against the Spread: Chicago
The Match-up: Dallas (-1.5) @ New York Giants
The Skinny: With all due respect to the Saints, the Giants are the hottest team in the NFC, having won six straight after opening the year 0-2. I guess the Giants will have to take care of the business the Eagles couldn’t a week ago.
Straight Up: New York Giants
Against the Spread: New York Giants
The Match-up: Detroit (+1.0) @ Arizona
The Skinny: Even the most optimistic Detroit fan will tell you that this is the only time the Lions will be playing in Arizona this season.
Straight Up: Detroit
Against the Spread: Detroit
The Match-up: Indianapolis (-3.5) @ San Diego
The Skinny: Just when you thought it was safe to call the Chargers a contender again, they get housed by AD and the Vikings. They could catch the Colts in a potential let-down situation coming off their crushing defeat to the Patriots, but it seems unlikely.
Straight Up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Indianapolis
Monday, November 12, 2007
The Match-up: San Francisco (+10.0) @ Seattle
The Skinny: A running back is only as good as his offensive line. Have you noticed how Shaun Alexander has declined since Steve Hutchinson left for Minnesota?
Straight Up: Seattle
Against the Spread: Seattle
Bye: Houston, New England, New York Jets, Tampa Bay
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Week 9: 10-4 straight up; 7-7 against the spread
Season: 79-51 (.608); 58-64-8 (.475)
Friday, November 02, 2007
The Week 9 Picks
"Don’t believe the hype." – Public Enemy
I’m not sure if you know this or not, but the Patriots and Colts are both undefeated, and they play against each other this week. You’d think a game of this magnitude would generate some kind of buzz…
In all seriousness, I’m really excited to watch this game, being billed by some media outlets as "Super Bowl XLI and a half." Typically once the Super Bowl match-up is decided, I get a gut feeling about one of the participants, and then spend the next two weeks being sold on the other team to the point where I almost change my mind.
A lot of what I’ve heard lately circles around Indianapolis and how they’ve won twelve straight, including last year’s playoffs when they hoisted the Lombardi Trophy. The Colts are the home team, yet they’re an underdog. They’ve played the tougher schedule and come out unscathed. And they’ve got a defense that can challenge the mighty Patriots. So Indianapolis wins the game right?
Not quite.
Look, it’s not that everything I just mentioned isn’t true, because it absolutely is. But I’ve watched both teams play this season, and the Pats have passed my eye test. They aren’t just beating teams, they’re demoralizing them. They’re absolutely unstoppable, and I won’t be fooled by all of the pro-Colts hype.
And can we stop with all of this nonsense about the Patriots running up the score? It’s the NFL. There is no such thing as running up the score. To me, it’s a lot like the excessive celebration stuff. If you don’t want a guy dancing on your team’s logo in the end zone, keep him from scoring. If you’ve got a problem with a team hanging half a hundred on you, play some defense. After all, it’s obvious the Bill Belichick won’t be calling off the dogs this year.
Oh yeah, it’s also Dallas week in Philly, and I’ve been asked by more than a few people to dial up an Eagles win, including my man Giants Jim from the neighborhood. The funny thing is, this is the kind of game that the Birds will win, when nobody’s giving them a shot. A Week 7 home game against the Bears of no real significance except for the attendance of one particular fan? Come from ahead to lose by allowing a 97-yard drive in 1:43 with no timeouts. 6-1 Dallas comes to town as the odds-on favorite in the NFC?
Watch what happens.
Sunday, November 4, 2007
The Match-up: Arizona (+3.5) @ Tampa Bay
The Skinny: Jeff Garcia and the Bucs turned the ball over uncharacteristically last week in losing to Jacksonville. If they can cut out the miscues, they should be able to handle the Cardinals.
Straight Up: Tampa Bay
Against the Spread: Tampa Bay
The Match-up: Denver (+3.0) @ Detroit
The Skinny: We’ve gone down this road with Denver already. They’re simply not that good. Detroit, on the other hand, is halfway to the ten wins predicted by Jon Kitna in the pre-season. The Lions still have two games against Green Bay, plus dates with Dallas, the Giants. Not sure they’re getting to ten, but they’re still better than the Broncos.
Straight Up: Detroit
Against the Spread: Detroit
The Match-up: Carolina (+4.0) @ Tennessee
The Skinny: The Panthers are winless in three tries at home this season, yet they’re a perfect 4-0 on the road. So much for home field advantage.
Straight Up: Carolina
Against the Spread: Carolina
The Match-up: Green Bay (+2.0) @ Kansas City
The Skinny: The Packers may have solved their running game issues with former Notre Dame great Ryan Grant. I know Arrowhead is a tough place to play, but if you’re going to give me points with a 6-1 team, I’ll take them nine times out of ten.
Straight Up: Green Bay
Against the Spread: Green Bay
The Match-up: San Diego (-7.0) @ Minnesota
The Skinny: The upside-down world of the NFL is starting to right itself, as the Chargers are back beating teams with LaDanian Tomlinson dominating and Philip Rivers throwing the ball sparingly. As long as he keeps throwing it to Antonio Gates, I’m alright with it.
Straight Up: San Diego
Against the Spread: San Diego
The Match-up: Jacksonville (+3.0) @ New Orleans
The Skinny: Speaking of righting the ship, the Saints are 3-0 since I implored their fans to break out the brown paper bags and bring back the "Ain’ts." You’re welcome.
Straight Up: New Orleans
Against the Spread: New Orleans
The Match-up: San Francisco (+3.5) @ Atlanta
The Skinny: Memo to Bobby Petrino – Embrace the youth movement and hand the ball to Jerious Norwood 25 times a game. Please?
Straight Up: Atlanta
Against the Spread: Atlanta
The Match-up: Washington (-3.5) @ New York Jets
The Skinny: ESPN Radio’s Freddie Coleman broke out this gem last week: "JETS" now stands for "Just End The Season." Kellen Clemens finally gets the starting nod for gang green.
Straight Up: Washington
Against the Spread: Washington
The Match-up: Cincinnati (+1.0) @ Buffalo
The Skinny: Yes, I’m taking J.P. Losman over Carson Palmer. The Bengals train careened off the track, and the players seem so uninspired it’s almost frightening.
Straight Up: Buffalo
Against the Spread: Buffalo
The Match-up: Seattle (+1.5) @ Cleveland
The Skinny: I think I saw a picture of Shaun Alexander on the side of a milk carton the other day. Where has he disappeared to? Cleveland’s run defense should have Alexander coming out of hiding.
Straight Up: Seattle
Against the Spread: Seattle
The Match-up: New England (-5.0) @ Indianapolis
The Skinny: I think there’s been enough said about this game already.
Straight Up: New England
Against the Spread: New England
The Match-up: Houston (+3.0) @ Oakland
The Skinny: You mean Josh McCown vs. Sage Rosenfels doesn’t earn top billing on CBS this weekend?
Straight Up: Houston
Against the Spread: Houston
The Match-up: Dallas (-3.5) @ Philadelphia
The Skinny: The bottom line is the Eagles need this one. They need it for their playoff chances. They need it for their embattled head coach. They need it for their fans.
Straight Up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia
Monday, November 5, 2007
The Match-up: Baltimore (+9.0) @ Pittsburgh
The Skinny: The Steelers are at home and will be breaking out the throwback jerseys which will get the crowd all riled up. But this line seems a little high to me.
Straight Up: Pittsburgh
Against the Spread: Baltimore
Bye: Chicago, Miami, New York Giants, St. Louis
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Week 8: 9-4 straight up; 9-4 against the spread
Season: 69-47; 51-57-8
I’m not sure if you know this or not, but the Patriots and Colts are both undefeated, and they play against each other this week. You’d think a game of this magnitude would generate some kind of buzz…
In all seriousness, I’m really excited to watch this game, being billed by some media outlets as "Super Bowl XLI and a half." Typically once the Super Bowl match-up is decided, I get a gut feeling about one of the participants, and then spend the next two weeks being sold on the other team to the point where I almost change my mind.
A lot of what I’ve heard lately circles around Indianapolis and how they’ve won twelve straight, including last year’s playoffs when they hoisted the Lombardi Trophy. The Colts are the home team, yet they’re an underdog. They’ve played the tougher schedule and come out unscathed. And they’ve got a defense that can challenge the mighty Patriots. So Indianapolis wins the game right?
Not quite.
Look, it’s not that everything I just mentioned isn’t true, because it absolutely is. But I’ve watched both teams play this season, and the Pats have passed my eye test. They aren’t just beating teams, they’re demoralizing them. They’re absolutely unstoppable, and I won’t be fooled by all of the pro-Colts hype.
And can we stop with all of this nonsense about the Patriots running up the score? It’s the NFL. There is no such thing as running up the score. To me, it’s a lot like the excessive celebration stuff. If you don’t want a guy dancing on your team’s logo in the end zone, keep him from scoring. If you’ve got a problem with a team hanging half a hundred on you, play some defense. After all, it’s obvious the Bill Belichick won’t be calling off the dogs this year.
Oh yeah, it’s also Dallas week in Philly, and I’ve been asked by more than a few people to dial up an Eagles win, including my man Giants Jim from the neighborhood. The funny thing is, this is the kind of game that the Birds will win, when nobody’s giving them a shot. A Week 7 home game against the Bears of no real significance except for the attendance of one particular fan? Come from ahead to lose by allowing a 97-yard drive in 1:43 with no timeouts. 6-1 Dallas comes to town as the odds-on favorite in the NFC?
Watch what happens.
Sunday, November 4, 2007
The Match-up: Arizona (+3.5) @ Tampa Bay
The Skinny: Jeff Garcia and the Bucs turned the ball over uncharacteristically last week in losing to Jacksonville. If they can cut out the miscues, they should be able to handle the Cardinals.
Straight Up: Tampa Bay
Against the Spread: Tampa Bay
The Match-up: Denver (+3.0) @ Detroit
The Skinny: We’ve gone down this road with Denver already. They’re simply not that good. Detroit, on the other hand, is halfway to the ten wins predicted by Jon Kitna in the pre-season. The Lions still have two games against Green Bay, plus dates with Dallas, the Giants. Not sure they’re getting to ten, but they’re still better than the Broncos.
Straight Up: Detroit
Against the Spread: Detroit
The Match-up: Carolina (+4.0) @ Tennessee
The Skinny: The Panthers are winless in three tries at home this season, yet they’re a perfect 4-0 on the road. So much for home field advantage.
Straight Up: Carolina
Against the Spread: Carolina
The Match-up: Green Bay (+2.0) @ Kansas City
The Skinny: The Packers may have solved their running game issues with former Notre Dame great Ryan Grant. I know Arrowhead is a tough place to play, but if you’re going to give me points with a 6-1 team, I’ll take them nine times out of ten.
Straight Up: Green Bay
Against the Spread: Green Bay
The Match-up: San Diego (-7.0) @ Minnesota
The Skinny: The upside-down world of the NFL is starting to right itself, as the Chargers are back beating teams with LaDanian Tomlinson dominating and Philip Rivers throwing the ball sparingly. As long as he keeps throwing it to Antonio Gates, I’m alright with it.
Straight Up: San Diego
Against the Spread: San Diego
The Match-up: Jacksonville (+3.0) @ New Orleans
The Skinny: Speaking of righting the ship, the Saints are 3-0 since I implored their fans to break out the brown paper bags and bring back the "Ain’ts." You’re welcome.
Straight Up: New Orleans
Against the Spread: New Orleans
The Match-up: San Francisco (+3.5) @ Atlanta
The Skinny: Memo to Bobby Petrino – Embrace the youth movement and hand the ball to Jerious Norwood 25 times a game. Please?
Straight Up: Atlanta
Against the Spread: Atlanta
The Match-up: Washington (-3.5) @ New York Jets
The Skinny: ESPN Radio’s Freddie Coleman broke out this gem last week: "JETS" now stands for "Just End The Season." Kellen Clemens finally gets the starting nod for gang green.
Straight Up: Washington
Against the Spread: Washington
The Match-up: Cincinnati (+1.0) @ Buffalo
The Skinny: Yes, I’m taking J.P. Losman over Carson Palmer. The Bengals train careened off the track, and the players seem so uninspired it’s almost frightening.
Straight Up: Buffalo
Against the Spread: Buffalo
The Match-up: Seattle (+1.5) @ Cleveland
The Skinny: I think I saw a picture of Shaun Alexander on the side of a milk carton the other day. Where has he disappeared to? Cleveland’s run defense should have Alexander coming out of hiding.
Straight Up: Seattle
Against the Spread: Seattle
The Match-up: New England (-5.0) @ Indianapolis
The Skinny: I think there’s been enough said about this game already.
Straight Up: New England
Against the Spread: New England
The Match-up: Houston (+3.0) @ Oakland
The Skinny: You mean Josh McCown vs. Sage Rosenfels doesn’t earn top billing on CBS this weekend?
Straight Up: Houston
Against the Spread: Houston
The Match-up: Dallas (-3.5) @ Philadelphia
The Skinny: The bottom line is the Eagles need this one. They need it for their playoff chances. They need it for their embattled head coach. They need it for their fans.
Straight Up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia
Monday, November 5, 2007
The Match-up: Baltimore (+9.0) @ Pittsburgh
The Skinny: The Steelers are at home and will be breaking out the throwback jerseys which will get the crowd all riled up. But this line seems a little high to me.
Straight Up: Pittsburgh
Against the Spread: Baltimore
Bye: Chicago, Miami, New York Giants, St. Louis
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Week 8: 9-4 straight up; 9-4 against the spread
Season: 69-47; 51-57-8
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