The Week 17 Picks

The race for the NFL playoffs can best be described as a cluster. There are twenty teams that are mathematically still alive, nine of whom have already punched their post-season tickets. Of the eleven remaining, I’d say four have a legitimate chance. Here’s a concise scenario:

AFC
Clinched: San Diego, Baltimore, New England, Indianapolis
Control Own Destiny: New York Jets, Denver
Still Alive: Cincinnati, Jacksonville, Kansas City, Tennessee
What Will Happen: The Jets play the Raiders, and Denver hosts San Francisco, so they’re both likely in; San Diego will beat Arizona to clinch home field; Baltimore will be the two seed.

NFC
Clinched: Chicago, New Orleans, Seattle, Philadelphia, Dallas
Control Own Destiny: Technically, nobody (but the Giants hold most of the tiebreakers)
Still Alive: Atlanta, Carolina, Green Bay, St. Louis
What Will Happen: If the Giants can’t get it together for a must-win tomorrow night, they probably don’t deserve to be in the playoffs anyway; The Rams may be in the cat bird seat here, as they face the Vikings (should be a win) and the teams they need to lose all have tough match-ups (Atlanta in Philly, Carolina in New Orleans, Green Bay in Chicago). Oh, and the Eagles will win the East and be the third seed.

In short, I’d be surprised to see anyone other than the Jets, Broncos, Giants and/or Rams in the playoffs. Of course, this NFL season has been so bizarre, nothing would truly shock me at this point. With that being said, here are the Week 17 picks.

Saturday, December 30, 2006

The Match-up: New York Giants (-2.5) @ Washington
The Skinny: I’ve got Tom Coughlin as the first coach canned in the off-season, just ahead of Jim Mora Jr.
Straight Up: Washington
Against the Spread: Washington

Sunday, December 31, 2006

The Match-up: Jacksonville (+2.5) @ Kansas City
The Skinny: Call it the too little, too late bowl…
Straight Up: Kansas City
Against the Spread: Kansas City

The Match-up: St. Louis (-2.5) @ Minnesota
The Skinny: Of all the teams that the Eagles could face in round one, I think the Rams scare me the most. Steven Jackson is a straight up stud.
Straight Up: St. Louis
Against the Spread: St. Louis

The Match-up: Carolina (-3.0) @ New Orleans
The Skinny: The Saints are firmly entrenched in the number two spot in the NFC, and it’s a must-win for the Panthers. In spite of the fact that Jake del-overrated will be back under center for Carolina (or maybe because of that), I’ve got to go with the Saints.
Straight Up: New Orleans
Against the Spread: New Orleans

The Match-up: Oakland (+12.5) @ New York Jets
The Skinny: Wonder if the Raiders have started printing up replica Brady Quinn #10 jerseys yet.
Straight Up: New York Jets
Against the Spread: New York Jets

The Match-up: Pittsburgh (+6.0) @ Cincinnati
The Skinny: Where will Bill Cowher be coaching next year? My guess is Pittsburgh, because he’s not going to find greener grass anywhere.
Straight Up: Cincinnati
Against the Spread: Cincinnati

The Match-up: Detroit (+12.5) @ Dallas
The Skinny: See if you can figure out who Dallas CB Terrance Newman was talking about in the following quote: "People need to just start playing and stop talking so much. It's a show-me league and talking is not going to do anything." (I’ll give you a hint – his nickname is TOFU and he sucks)
Straight Up: Detroit
Against the Spread: Detroit

The Match-up: Seattle (+3.5) @ Tampa Bay
The Skinny: The Bucs gave Chris Simms a two-year contract extension despite the spleen-ectomy that sidelined him most of this season. That’s a real vote of confidence for Bruce Gradkowski.
Straight Up: Seattle
Against the Spread: Seattle

The Match-up: New England (+3.0) @ Tennessee
The Skinny: Why go against the next big thing at home when he’ll likely be facing a team quarterbacked by Matt Cassell in the second half? Gut feeling.
Straight Up: New England
Against the Spread: New England

The Match-up: Cleveland (+4.0) @ Houston
The Skinny: Whoever will be managing the Browns 2007 draft should look up Charlie Casserly and ask him if he would take a mulligan on the ’06 draft. Troy Smith in Cleveland could be a perfect situation for both.
Straight Up: Cleveland
Against the Spread: Cleveland

The Match-up: Atlanta (+8.0) @ Philadelphia
The Skinny: Ron Mexico threw Jim Mora under the bus this week, saying there’s too much talent on the Falcons for them to be in the position they are. Mexico should know best. He’s Exhibit A.
Straight Up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia

The Match-up: Arizona (+13.5) @ San Diego
The Skinny: Jason Taylor may not think Shawne Merriman is a viable candidate for Defensive Player of the Year, but Kurt Warner will by the end of Sunday.
Straight Up: San Diego
Against the Spread: San Diego

The Match-up: San Francisco (+10.5) @ Denver
The Skinny: Frank Gore alone may be enough to keep the game close, but the Broncos should come out on top.
Straight Up: Denver
Against the Spread: San Francisco

The Match-up: Buffalo (+9.0) @ Baltimore
The Skinny: A game featuring two teams on the east coast kicks off at 4:00, the same time as the Chargers-Cardinals game when the Chargers and Ravens are battling for the top seed in the AFC. Coincidence?
Straight Up: Baltimore
Against the Spread: Baltimore

The Match-up: Miami (+9.0) @ Indianapolis
The Skinny: There are a few reasons I was leaning towards Miami (good defense, a healthy Ronnie Brown, Indy’s porous run defense) and one overwhelming reason why I went with the Colts (Cleo Lemon will start at quarterback for the Dolphins on Sunday).
Straight Up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Indianapolis

The Match-up: Green Bay (+3.0) @ Chicago
The Skinny: The funny thing is, if the Bears were to rest Rex Grossman and Thomas Jones in favor of Brian Griese and Cedric Benson, they might have been a seven point favorite. Happy trails, Brett (just in case), and congratulations on a Hall-of-Fame career.
Straight Up: Chicago
Against the Spread: Chicago

Revisionist History

Just wanted to take a minute to announce my association with NFL Bloggers (www.nfl-bloggers.com), a portal of other NFL-related blogs. To those readers who are new to the site, welcome aboard. Here’s a little background for you (if you’ve been with me for a while, feel free to skip ahead).

The genesis of the site goes back almost six years, when I happened upon a column called “Pete’s Picks” in USA Today. A guy named Pete O’Brien picked every NFL game that weekend, straight up and against the spread, and I was astonished at how bad some of his picks were. I couldn’t believe this guy was pulling a paycheck to print them. I tracked my picks versus his for the remainder of the season, and blew him out of the water. Starting with the 2001-02 season, I documented my picks and communicated them via e-mail to a few of my friends. When the scope of the project expanded, I opted for a more public forum, hence the creation of Ant’s “Expert” NFL Page in June 2005. The title pays veiled homage to the “Experts” on sites like ESPN and CNN-SI whose record at picking games is no better than mine. If they are “Experts,” why shouldn’t I be?

There are a few caveats that you should keep in mind:

1. The picks are for entertainment purposes only. If you use my opinions as a basis for your gambling, that’s your business.
2. I am not NFL-sanctioned, therefore I am under no obligation to be objective. I am merely a football fan with opinions.
3. When making my picks, I adhere to a couple of strict rules:

a) I will ALWAYS pick the Philadelphia Eagles, regardless of opponent, venue, or point spread. It’s my right as a fan to do so.
b) Conversely, I will NEVER pick the Dallas Cowboys, regardless of opponent, venue, or point spread. In a perfect world, the Cowboys would be 0-16 every year for the rest of their miserable existence.
c) I don’t use gimmicks, like the “Upset of the Week.” I don’t want to call an upset because I’m required to. If I think one team will beat another, I’ll let you know. And you won’t find a “Lock of the Week” on this site. I think all of my picks are locks. Otherwise, I wouldn’t pick them.

Anyway, the picks are the meat and potatoes of the site, but occasionally there will be a topic that warrants some commentary, so I may share a random thought here or there. For example…

I got the Christmas present I really wanted at around 8:00 Monday night, as the Eagles were finishing up their dominance of the Cowboys in Dallas. The Eagles completed the season sweep and vaulted into first place in the NFC East and can clinch the division with a win over Atlanta on Sunday. The Cowboys, meanwhile, started sniping at each other even before there were zeroes on the clock. I watched the first half with a couple of cousins-in-law by marriage who are Cowboys fans (both from New Jersey, so figure that one out) and the second at home with my family. The only way it would have been better is if TOFU didn’t score Dallas’ touchdown.

Speaking of, not only was TOFU’s celebration cheesy (he extended both arms straight out like a “T,” then arched them over his head in the shape of an “O”), it wasn’t even original! Remember Oronde Gadsden, former wide receiver for the Dolphins circa 1996? Every time he caught a pass, he made the “O,” then a “G.” Yet one more reason why TOFU sucks.

I was going to have some picks for today, but I need to review the playoff implications for this weekend’s games and get back to you. Admittedly, Sunday could be entirely academic in the NFC if the Giants decide to show up in Washington on Saturday night.

The Week 16 Picks

I’m going off the board here with a couple of Allen Iverson thoughts. One question I heard a lot this week was, “do you think the Sixers got a good deal?” Hard to say, seeing as there’s no way to know right now what will become of the two first round picks they got. It’s kind of up to Billy King at this point. But having three first round picks in the upcoming draft should go a long way towards rebuilding.

One thing I do know is that Allen will be missed, and not just Allen the basketball player. Too often he’s gotten a bad rap, and some of it deservedly so. But I wanted to take a chance to relay a touching story about A.I. About three years ago, my friend Tim was killed in an automobile accident. He was a manager at a car wash where many of the Sixers had their vehicles detailed. A.I. stopped in shortly after the accident and when he heard what had happened, on the spot he cut a $25,000 check to Tim’s daughter. That’s the A.I. I’ll remember. Good luck in Denver, Allen, and I hope you get the championship you deserve and covet.

I’m on the road tomorrow, so here’s the short short version of the Week 16 Picks.

Thursday, December 21st, 2006

The Match-up: Minnesota (+3.0) @ Green Bay
The Skinny: Rookie Tavaris Jackson gets the start at quarterback for the Vikings. They’re only playing for the future anyway.
Straight Up: Green Bay
Against the Spread: Green Bay

Saturday, December 23rd, 2006

The Match-up: Kansas City (-6.5) @ Oakland
The Skinny: If the Chiefs didn’t go from 7-4 to 7-7 over the last three weeks, do you think Larry Johnson would be complaining about the offense? Probably.
Straight Up: Kansas City
Against the Spread: Kansas City

Sunday, December 24th, 2006

The Match-up: Chicago (-4.5) @ Detroit
The Skinny: There’s a chance, now that the Bears have clinched home field in the NFC, that they take this game lightly. I don’t know if that’s enough help for the Lions.
Straight Up: Chicago
Against the Spread: Chicago

The Match-up: Washington (+2.0) @ Seattle
The Skinny: The Redskins looked pretty good last week in New Orleans.
Straight Up: Washington
Against the Spread: Washington

The Match-up: New Orleans (+3.0) @ New York Giants
The Skinny: Really? The Saints are getting three? I’ll take that.
Straight Up: New Orleans
Against the Spread: New Orleans

The Match-up: Baltimore (+3.0) @ Pittsburgh
The Skinny: Really? The Ravens are getting three? I don’t like that.
Straight Up: Pittsburgh
Against the Spread: Pittsburgh

The Match-up: Carolina (Off) @ Atlanta
The Skinny: One team has something to play for. The other is the Carolina Panthers.
Straight Up: Atlanta
Against the Spread: Atlanta

The Match-up: New England (+3.0) @ Jacksonville
The Skinny: Tom Brady should play with a chip on his shoulder after his Pro Bowl snub. One problem? Jacksonville’s defense at home is pretty good.
Straight Up: Jacksonville
Against the Spread: Jacksonville

The Match-up: Tennessee (+4.5) @ Buffalo
The Skinny: This is basically an elimination game, as both teams are in the AFC logjam at 7-7.
Straight Up: Buffalo
Against the Spread: Tennessee

The Match-up: Indianapolis (-9.0) @ Houston
The Skinny: If Monday night is any indication, the Colts are still very much a factor.
Straight Up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Indianapolis

The Match-up: Tampa Bay (+3.0) @ Cleveland
The Skinny: Tim Rattay threw for 268 yards and 3 touchdowns in basically a half against the Bears. He should make Cleveland’s defense look like a Pop Warner team.
Straight Up: Tampa Bay
Against the Spread: Tampa Bay

The Match-up: Arizona (+4.0) @ San Francisco
The Skinny: I’m going to go way out on a limb here – Frank Gore will be a top five fantasy back next year.
Straight Up: San Francisco
Against the Spread: San Francisco

The Match-up: Cincinnati (+3.0) @ Denver
The Skinny: Cincy’s playoff chances are on life support after the loss Monday in Indy. Jay Cutler could pull the plug this week.
Straight Up: Denver
Against the Spread: Denver

The Match-up: San Diego (-4.5) @ Seattle
The Skinny: Due to the fact that the Colts and Ravens keep winning, the Chargers need to keep pace to clinch home field in the AFC.
Straight Up: San Diego
Against the Spread: San Diego

Monday, December 11th, 2006

The Match-up: Philadelphia (+7.0) @ Dallas
The Skinny: My Christmas wish? The Eagles beat the Cowboys to take the lead in the NFC East, and Jeff Garcia spits on TOFU’s face on his way off the field. TOFU is such a piece of crap. He and the Cowboys are made for each other.
Straight Up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia

The Match-up: New York Jets (+2.5) @ Miami
The Skinny: This line is puzzling. Here are the Jets, with a legitimate shot at the post season, and they’re a dog in Miami? That should raise a red flag, but it doesn’t.
Straight Up: New York Jets
Against the Spread: New York Jets

The Week 15 Picks

Before we get to the Sunday games, a quick word about Kansas City Chiefs owner Lamar Hunt, who passed away at age 74 this week. Hunt was not only an owner, but an innovator and a visionary. He was instrumental in the AFL-NFL merger and coined the phrase "Super Bowl." But his contribution to sports were not limited to football. He helped launch Major League Soccer, the North American Soccer League, and a traveling tennis circuit. He was also a part-owner of the Chicago Bulls and collected six NBA championship rings. Hunt’s impact on the sports world will live on in his legacy, and he will be missed.

Anyway, it’s Saturday night, and instead of watching the Cowboys-Falcons game on TV, I’m trying to follow it on the computer. So far, the Eagles are not getting any help from Ron Mexico, who is 0-2 with an interception that was returned for a TD and has a mere 9 rushing yards.

Sunday, December 17th, 2006

The Match-up: Tampa Bay (+13.5) @ Chicago
The Skinny: I know Rex Grossman had a decent game in St. Louis on Monday, and with their defense and special teams (especially Devin Hester), all Grossman has to do is be decent.
Straight Up: Chicago
Against the Spread: Chicago

The Match-up: Pittsburgh (Off) @ Carolina
The Skinny: Since stumbling out of the gate at 2-6, the Steelers have won four of five and get Carolina at a time where they’re sinking like a stone in the ocean.
Straight Up: Pittsburgh
Against the Spread: Pittsburgh

The Match-up: Detroit (+5.0) @ Green Bay
The Skinny: The Packers have beaten the Lions in Green Bay fourteen straight times. Brett Favre has never lost to Detroit in Lambeau. And, the Lions are 0-6 on the road this season. The way the NFL has gone this year, I was actually tempted to take the Lions. But I didn’t.
Straight Up: Green Bay
Against the Spread: Green Bay

The Match-up: Cleveland (+11.0) @ Baltimore
The Skinny: My sleeper team for this year? Still asleep, apparently.
Straight Up: Baltimore
Against the Spread: Baltimore

The Match-up: Jacksonville (-3.5) @ Tennessee
The Skinny: Until he loses again, I’ll find it hard to go against Vince Young, even against a quality opponent like the Jaguars (who have struggled on the road this season).
Straight Up: Tennessee
Against the Spread: Tennessee

The Match-up: New York Jets (+3.0) @ Minnesota
The Skinny: I think the Jets may have gotten full of themselves with so many people putting them in the playoffs, because they forgot they had to play the game against Buffalo last week. I don’t think they’ll make the same mistake in Minnesota.
Straight Up: New York Jets
Against the Spread: New York Jets

The Match-up: Houston (+11.5) @ New England
The Skinny: I’d be willing to wager that, rather than leaking audio tapes to the Texans, that neither Brady nor Belichick spoke at all this week.
Straight Up: New England
Against the Spread: New England

The Match-up: Washington (+9.5) @ New Orleans
The Skinny: The only real challenger to LaDanian Tomlinson’s MVP award is Drew Brees. Could you imagine if these guys were on the same team?
Straight Up: New Orleans
Against the Spread: New Orleans

The Match-up: Miami (+1.0) @ Buffalo
The Skinny: Florida team in Buffalo in December? I’ll take the Bills.
Straight Up: Buffalo
Against the Spread: Buffalo

The Match-up: Denver (-2.5) @ Arizona
The Skinny: Colorado team in Arizona in December? I’ll take the Broncos.
Straight Up: Denver
Against the Spread: Denver

The Match-up: St. Louis (+2.5) @ Oakland
The Skinny: I don’t like the fact that the Raiders are actually favored in this game. This one may come back to get me.
Straight Up: St. Louis
Against the Spread: St. Louis

The Match-up: Philadelphia (+5.5) @ New York Giants
The Skinny: Credit the Eagles front office for learning from last year’s mistakes and bringing in a quality back-up quarterback to play behind Donovan McNabb. Jeff Garcia is a winner, and the Eagles could really benefit from a win over the Giants.
Straight Up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia

The Match-up: Kansas City (+8.5) @ San Diego
The Skinny: With my head (straight up) and my heart (against the spread).
Straight Up: San Diego
Against the Spread: Kansas City

Monday, December 18th, 2006

The Match-up: Cincinnati (+3.0) @ Indianapolis
The Skinny: This was my pre-season AFC championship game, and if not for the Chargers, it still might be.
Straight Up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Indianapolis

More Week 15

Back in college, I had a buddy we called “Thursday Night Dave.” We’d all go out on Thursday night, and when we returned to the dorm after more than a few pops, good old Dave would scour the building, pop in on some friends, pull the mattress out from under people that were sleeping. He even interrupted at least one, um, encounter? Basically, he’d wreak havoc to the point they put a sign in the lobby reading “It’s Thursday Night. Lock Your Door.” It was much fun for everybody (well, unless you were the guy sleeping on the mattress).

Why am I telling you this? Because I haven’t had a good Thursday night seemingly since college. These Thursday NFL games are killing me, causing me to start 0-1 every week. Maybe I’ll have better luck on Saturday.

Saturday, December 16, 2006

The Match-up: Dallas (-3.0) @ Atlanta
The Skinny: The Falcons are finally wising up to my idea (floated back in September) about playing Ron Mexico and back up Matt Schaub at the same time. Of course, they’re doing it out of necessity and not creativity. Hey, whatever the reason, I just hope it works.
Straight Up: Atlanta
Against the Spread: Atlanta

The Start of Week 15

Remember my commentary on the depth of this year’s rookie class from a couple of weeks ago? Well it seems as though every week, another one comes crawling out of the woodwork. Two weeks ago, Carolina’s DeAngelo Williams put up big numbers against Philly on Monday night, and Jerrious Norwood of the Falcons torched the Redskins. Last week, Chicago’s Devin Hester set an NFL record with his sixth return touchdown of the year. So who’s next? LenDale White? Santonio Holmes? Hank Baskett? (Sorry, had to show a little love for my boy Hank).

Here’s an interesting little stat for you – with three weeks remaining in the season, an astonishing 25 of the league’s 32 teams are still mathematically alive for the playoffs, including both of tonight’s participants.

Thursday, December 14, 2006

The Match-up: San Francisco (+9.5) @ Seattle
The Skinny: I thought I had the Seahawks figured out, that is until they went and laid an egg in Arizona. But, I like them tonight for three reasons: 1) They can clinch the division with a win over Frisco; 2) They’re getting healthy again with Hasselbeck and Alexander back up to speed and Bobby Engram expected to return tonight; 3) The game is in Seattle, and the Seahawks are vastly better at home than on the road. That much I have figured out.
Straight Up: Seattle
Against the Spread: Seattle

The Week 14 Picks

Why are the next four weeks so intriguing? Because only one of the NFL’s twelve playoffs spots has been secured, and just about everybody is still in the running for the other eleven spots. The bottom line is, when the dust settles, there will be a few talented teams on the outside looking in.

Sunday, December 10th, 2006

The Match-up: Atlanta (-3.0) @ Tampa Bay
The Skinny: Ron Mexico always seems to save his biggest games for Tampa, and with the Falcons in the thick of the NFC Wild Card race, I’d expect nothing less from ol’ Double Barrel this week.
Straight Up: Atlanta
Against the Spread: Atlanta

The Match-up: Oakland (+11.0) @ Cincinnati
The Skinny: After Sunday, the Bengals take their playoff chances to Indy and Denver before getting Pittsburgh at home in the finale. Translation – they’d better take care f business against Oakland this week, or the next three may not matter.
Straight Up: Cincinnati
Against the Spread: Cincinnati

The Match-up: Philadelphia (-1.5) @ Washington
The Skinny: Speaking of tough stretch drives, the Eagles start their NFC East barnstorming tour this Sunday in the nation’s capital. The next three weeks will determine whether or not Jeff Garcia and the Eagles make it to the postseason. There’s a sentence I never thought I’d write.
Straight Up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia

The Match-up: New York Giants (Off) @ Carolina
The Skinny: Alright Panthers fans. You wanted Chris Weinke? You’ve got Chris Weinke. Jake Del-overrated is most likely out against the Giants this week, meaning Weinke will get his shot. Um, Chris, you may want to throw it to that Steve Smith guy on the outside. Just a suggestion.
Straight Up: New York Giants
Against the Spread: New York Giants

The Match-up: Minnesota (+2.5) @ Detroit
The Skinny: This game has some upset potential due to the fact that a) it’s in Detroit, b) Chester Taylor is out with a rib injury, and c) Brad Childress is actually considering benching Brad Johnson in favor of Brooks Bollinger. What in the name of Tony Romo is going on in this league?
Straight Up: Minnesota
Against the Spread: Minnesota

The Match-up: Indianapolis (-1.5) @ Jacksonville
The Skinny: Here’s an interesting stat – the Colts have not lost three consecutive games since 2001. They enter this game on a two-game losing streak. Something’s got to give, and that something may be Jacksonville’s fourth-ranked defense.
Straight Up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Indianapolis

The Match-up: Baltimore (+3.0) @ Kansas City
The Skinny: The Ravens are jockeying for home-field and a first round bye, plus their division rival Bengals are looking at an almost certain win over Oakland, so the Ravens will be motivated. Kansas City should be too, but they let a golden opportunity (and a 14-point lead) slip through their fingers in Cleveland a week ago.
Straight Up: Baltimore
Against the Spread: Baltimore

The Match-up: Tennessee (+1.5) @ Houston
The Skinny: Who’s hotter than the Titans? They’ve won five of their last seven, and Vince Young looks like the next big thing in this league. In case you haven’t heard it, like, a million times already this week, he’s a Houston native and the Texans could have selected him instead of Mario Williams in April’s draft.
Straight Up: Tennessee
Against the Spread: Tennessee

The Match-up: New England (-3.5) @ Miami
The Skinny: I know the Patriots have won four straight, but they’ve done so almost in spite of themselves. They’d better not sleep on the Dolphins in Miami, where New England has lost six of eight.
Straight Up: New England
Against the Spread: New England

The Match-up: Seattle (-3.0) @ Arizona
The Skinny: The Seahawks are getting healthy just in time to make a run in the NFC playoffs.
Straight Up: Seattle
Against the Spread: Seattle

The Match-up: Green Bay (+4.5) @ San Francisco
The Skinny: The NFC is so bad that the Packers are still mathematically alive for a post-season berth.
Straight Up: San Francisco
Against the Spread: Green Bay

The Match-up: Buffalo (+4.0) @ New York Jets
The Skinny: From the “Something’s Gotta Give” department, the Jets have won four straight home games against Buffalo, but haven’t swept the Bills in a season series since 2002.
Straight Up: New York Jets
Against the Spread: New York Jets

The Match-up: Denver (+7.5) @ San Diego
The Skinny: If you were Mike Shanahan, would you reverse gears and go back to Jake Plummer? Me neither. Jay Cutler may have struggled last week, but it’s not like Denver was going anywhere with The Snake anyway.
Straight Up: San Diego
Against the Spread: San Diego

The Match-up: New Orleans (+7.0) @ Dallas
The Skinny: Drew Brees has started to get some MVP buzz, and deservedly so. He may not be on pace to break Dan Marino’s single-season passing record, but the Saints are 8-4 and they’re 7-1 against NFC foes.
Straight Up: New Orleans
Against the Spread: New Orleans

Monday, December 11th, 2006

The Match-up: Chicago (-6.5) @ St. Louis
The Skinny: How good are Chicago’s defense and special teams? The Bears beat Minnesota last week in spite of Rex Grossman’s blood alcohol level-like quarterback rating of 1.3. Grossman has turned the ball over 18 times in the last seven games. The next thing he loses could be his job.
Straight Up: Chicago
Against the Spread: Chicago

The Week 13.5 Pick

A quick announcement in the wake of Monday night’s Eagles-Panthers game: Going forward, Jake Delhomme will be known as Jake Del-overrated.

Panther Nation has grown tired of his late-game blunders and they’ve been calling for John Fox to yank him in favor of Chris Weinke, hoping he’ll provide a Romo-esque spark. Two things warrant mentioning here. One, Chris Weinke is not Tony Romo, nor should similar results be expected. Two, the Panthers have held a fourth quarter lead in five of their six losses, meaning they could, in theory, be 11-1 instead of 6-6. Del-overrated has turned it over at Grossman-like levels in more than one of those losses. Despite this, pulling him now might not be the best solution (see point number one).

As for today, it’s another Thursday with another NFL game that exactly five people will get to watch. Needless to say, I will not be one of them.

Thursday, December 7, 2006

The Match-up: Cleveland (+7.5) @ Pittsburgh
The Skinny: Both teams come in decimated by injuries, as the Steelers may be without notables Hines Ward and Troy Polamalu, and the Browns could be forced to start Derek Anderson at quarterback in place of Charlie Frye. It was Anderson who led a fourth quarter rally against KC last week that ended up with the Browns winning in overtime. Could we be looking at yet ANOTHER quarterback controversy?
Straight Up: Pittsburgh
Against the Spread: Cleveland

The Week 13 Picks

Here we go again.

Another poor Thursday showing has The Kid starting from behind the eight ball in Week 13. Last week, we were done in by the Lions and Bucs on Thanksgiving, and last night the Bengals defense decided to show up to keep the Ravens from clinching the North.

What’s worse, I traded for a Cincinnati wide receiver this week. Chad Johnson (eight catches for 91 yards)? Nope. T.J. Hoochie-mama (ten for 106 and a TD)? No. Chris Henry (no catches, no yards, zero Fantasy points)? You guessed it.

Luckily this season, I’ve gained valuable experience at swimming upstream, skiing uphill, playing from behind. And I’m sure that trend will continue through December.

Sunday, December 3rd, 2006

The Match-up: Arizona (+6.5) @ St. Louis
The Skinny: Why would Pete Carroll want to leave a football factory like USC to take the Cardinals job (which, by the way, is still not technically available)?
Straight Up: St. Louis
Against the Spread: St. Louis

The Match-up: Detroit (+13.5) @ New England
The Skinny: The Patriots have had their way with the rest of the NFC North, why not the Lions?
Straight Up: New England
Against the Spread: New England

The Match-up: San Diego (-6.0) @ Buffalo
The Skinny: While San Diego is clearly the better team (led by the best offensive player in the league), a California team in Buffalo in December could be in for a rude awakening. I like the Chargers, but not by much.
Straight Up: San Diego
Against the Spread: Buffalo

The Match-up: San Francisco (+7.0) @ New Orleans
The Skinny: Another virtual elimination game for the Saints, who are still in the thick of the NFC playoff race and can ill-afford a loss.
Straight Up: New Orleans
Against the Spread: New Orleans

The Match-up: Minnesota (+9.0) @ Chicago
The Skinny: Rex Grossman’s grip on the starting quarterback job is slipping. Paging Brian Griese!
Straight Up: Chicago
Against the Spread: Chicago

The Match-up: Kansas City (-5.0) @ Cleveland
The Skinny: The Browns are the latest team to suffer from internal strife, with Charlie Frye and Braylon Edwards nearly going at each other on the sideline last week. And with Larry Johnson running the ball, the sideline is where Frye and Edwards will spend most of Sunday afternoon.
Straight Up: Kansas City
Against the Spread: Kansas City

The Match-up: Atlanta (+2.0) @ Washington
The Skinny: Watch out for Ron “Double Barrel” Mexico and the Falcons to rebound this week in D.C.
Straight Up: Atlanta
Against the Spread: Atlanta

The Match-up: New York Jets (-1.5) @ Green Bay
The Skinny: I’ve flip-flopped on this one a few times, but I’ve got a hunch that the Packers will play for sixty minutes at home like they did for the first thirty in Seattle on Monday.
Straight Up: Green Bay
Against the Spread: Green Bay

The Match-up: Indianapolis (-7.5) @ Tennessee
The Skinny: Peyton Manning may have more fans in Tennessee that in Indianapolis. The Titans, meanwhile, may have used up all of their good karma in their amazing comeback last week.
Straight Up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Indianapolis

The Match-up: Houston (+3.0) @ Oakland
The Skinny: The Raiders fired their offensive coordinator this week. It warrants mentioning that the guy was managing a bed and breakfast a year ago. No telling whether or not Al Davis is going to hire the Maitre D from IHOP as his replacement.
Straight Up: Oakland
Against the Spread: Oakland

The Match-up: Jacksonville (+1.5) @ Miami
The Skinny: I know the Jags have struggled on the road this year, and they’ll have a tough task against the Dolphins in Miami. But Jacksonville seems to play to the level of their competition and should do so again.
Straight Up: Jacksonville
Against the Spread: Jacksonville

The Match-up: Dallas (-3.5) @ New York Giants
The Skinny: Here’s hoping we can stop all the “Tony Romo is the next Roger Staubach” nonsense. I’d like nothing more than to see the Giants plant him next to Jimmy Hoffa in the Meadowlands turf.
Straight Up: New York Giants
Against the Spread: New York Giants

The Match-up: Tampa Bay (+7.0) @ Pittsburgh
The Skinny: Much like Carroll downplaying rumors about leaving USC for the NFL, I don’t see any reason why Bill Cowher would leave Pittsburgh for N.C. State.
Straight Up: Pittsburgh
Against the Spread: Pittsburgh

The Match-up: Seattle (+3.0) @ Denver
The Skinny: Last week’s Sunday night affair was a coming out party for rookie Joseph Addai. This week could be the same for new Broncos quarterback Jay Cutler.
Straight Up: Denver
Against the Spread: Denver

Monday, December 4th, 2006

The Match-up: Carolina (Off) @ Philadelphia
The Skinny: One of these teams needs to show some heart and effort and prove that they can still make a run to the playoffs. I think you know who I’m talking about…
Straight Up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia

Rookies of the Year? More like "Year of the Rookies"

2006 certainly is shaping up as the year of the rookie. I mean, look at some of the names, numbers, and impact these guys have had in Year One of their NFL lives:

Joseph Addai (IND): 1,023 total yards, 8 TD
Mark Anderson (CHI): 8 sacks
Reggie Bush (NO): 956 all-purpose yards, 2 TD
Marques Colston (NO): 869 receiving yards, 7 TD
Tamba Hali (KC): 5.5 sacks, 5 forced fumbles
Maurice Jones-Drew (JAX): 771 total yards, 8 TD
Matt Leinart (ARI): 1,753 passing yards, 9 TD
Laurence Maroney (NE): 798 total yards, 5 TD
DeMeco Ryans (HOU): 99 tackles
Vince Young (TEN): 1,617 total yards, 12 TD

What’s more amazing is that only Bush, Young, and Leinart were drafted in the top ten in April. The depth of the draft feeds into the NFL’s desired parity, meaning any team can instantly become a contender if they do their homework and draft well. And that Mel Kiper Jr. is flat-out stealing a paycheck from ESPN.

We may look back at the class of 2006 as one of the best ever.

This is the second week of the NFL Network’s Thursday night broadcasts, and I’ve got to say I’ve got a love/hate relationship with the NFL Network. While I love the concept of a network devoted solely to professional football, I hate the fact that I would have to pony up a bunch of cash for DirecTV simply to get the NFL Network. As popular as the NFL is, I’m sure there are a bunch of financially-sound individuals (myself included) that are not going to incur the extra expense to catch a couple of additional games. Hopefully, the NFL and cable providers can reach an agreement that would allow the network to be more readily available. In the meantime, we’ll just pick ‘em today and read about ‘em later.

Thursday, November 30, 2006

The Match-up: Baltimore (+3.0) @ Cincinnati
The Skinny: For the Ravens, the concept is simple – win and clinch the AFC north. Execution of that concept, despite the fact that Cincinnati’s defense is among the worst statistically in the league, will be more difficult. Vegas thinks so, too. That’s why the Bengals are favored. Personally, I don’t see it, and I think the Ravens will continue their physicality on offense and beat the Bengals into submission.
Straight Up: Baltimore
Against the Spread: Baltimore

Leftovers - The Rest of the Week 12 Picks

One of my favorite things about Thanksgiving? Leftovers. There’s nothing better than an open-faced turkey sandwich, re-heated mashed potatoes, and Mom’s homemade stuffing. There are some leftover football games to opine on as well, so I’ll put the fork down temporarily and take care of the business at hand.

A quick note before I go on – I know that Michigan beat Notre Dame by 26 points in South Bend in September. And it certainly appears as thought nobody is beating Ohio State this year. But if the Irish can go out to The Coliseum tomorrow night and beat USC, it wouldn’t surprise me to see the Irish in the BCS National Championship game. Would that be fair? That’s debatable. What’s not debatable is the old college football adage: When you lose matters. Notre Dame’s loss to the Wolverines occurred many, many moons ago, and a win over USC would be fresh in the voters’ minds. Basically, tomorrow night is the season for Touchdown Charlie and the Irish. Here’s a bonus pick for you this week. Notre Dame 24, USC 20. Bring on the Buckeyes!

Sunday, November 26th, 2006

The Match-up: Pittsburgh (+3.0) @ Baltimore
The Skinny: The Ravens come into this game with a 4-0 record and a re-commitment to the ground game since Brian Billick fired Jim Fassel and took over the play-calling duties. Perhaps the Steelers should be taking notes.
Straight Up: Baltimore
Against the Spread: Baltimore

The Match-up: Cincinnati (–3.0) @ Cleveland
The Skinny: Ocho Cinco is white hot, putting up ridiculous numbers (450 yards, 5 TD) in his last two games. LaDanian Tomlinson thinks Ocho is on a roll.
Straight Up: Cleveland
Against the Spread: Cleveland

The Match-up: San Francisco (+5.5) @ St. Louis
The Skinny: The 49ers are 5-5 and in the NFC playoff race, which should tell you all you need to know about the strength of the NFC. The NFL calls it “parity.” I call it the JV.
Straight Up: St. Louis
Against the Spread: St. Louis

The Match-up: Arizona (+6.0) @ Minnesota
The Skinny: It’s old home week in the NFC North. Joey Harrington led Miami to a win over his old Lions mates yesterday, and Denny Green and the Cardinals head to the Homerdome to take on the Vikings. Green may be able to spend a lot of time in the Land of Lakes come January.
Straight Up: Minnesota
Against the Spread: Minnesota

The Match-up: Houston (+6.0) @ New York Jets
The Skinny: I was intrigued to see that the Texans amassed 188 rushing yards against the Bills a week ago, and the Jets have allowed a minimum of 125 yards per game for the last nine. Not intriguing enough to pick the Texans, however, as the game is in the swamps of Jersey and Houston is 1-4 on the road.
Straight Up: New York Jets
Against the Spread: New York Jets

The Match-up: New Orleans (+3.0) @ Atlanta
The Skinny: The loser is all but eliminated from the NFC playoffs.
Straight Up: New Orleans
Against the Spread: New Orleans

The Match-up: Carolina (–4.0) @ Washington
The Skinny: Nice debut for Jason Campbell last week. Not a winning one, but still, Campbell looks like an upgrade over Mark Brunell. With the Falcons or Saints guaranteed to lose, the Panthers could grab a stranglehold on the NFC South.
Straight Up: Carolina
Against the Spread: Carolina

The Match-up: Jacksonville (–3.0) @ Buffalo
The Skinny: I know the Jags are hot (4-1 in their last five), but they’re 1-3 non the road and their defense surrenders almost fifty yards and nine points per game more on the road than at home. Gotta play the odds.
Straight Up: Buffalo
Against the Spread: Buffalo

The Match-up: Oakland (+13.0) @ San Diego
The Skinny: On the first Monday night of the season, the Chargers beat the Raiders 31-0 in Oakland. They meet again in San Diego. And the Chargers look even better than they did that night. And if possible, the Raiders look worse. Hmmm…
Straight Up: San Diego
Against the Spread: San Diego

The Match-up: New York Giants (–3.0) @ Tennessee
The Skinny: Tiki Barber is the latest Giant to express his issues with Tom Coughlin. Why? He’s hands down their best player, and he only touched the ball ten times on Monday night. No wonder they lost. And no wonder Tiki’s pissed.
Straight Up: New York Giants
Against the Spread: New York Giants

The Match-up: Chicago (+3.0) @ New England
The Skinny: The Bears could clinch the NFC North with a win over New England and losses by Minnesota and Green Bay. I only see one of those three things happening, meaning the Bears will have to clinch another day.
Straight Up: New England
Against the Spread: New England

The Match-up: Philadelphia (+9.0) @ Indianapolis
The Skinny: Remember in 2002 when Donovan McNabb broke his leg and everybody thought the Eagles were done? Wrong. Koy Detmer and A.J. Feeley led the Birds to a 5-1 record down the stretch. Now McNabb is down again, and everyone’s doubting Philly. But at 5-5, they’re still alive in the playoff race, and they could hand the reins to none other than…A.J. Feeley! Those who ignore history are doomed to repeat it.
Straight Up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia

The Match-up: Green Bay (+9.5) @ Seattle
The Skinny: Again, it’s old home week in the NFC North. Green Bay and former Seahawk Ahman Green heads to Seattle where former Packers Mike Holmgren and Matt Hasselbeck are waiting. Remember when Favre on Monday night was a lock?
Straight Up: Seattle

Against the Spread: Seattle

Going Back for Thirds...The Thanksgiving Day Picks

First, there was the Sports Illustrated cover jinx.

Then came the Madden Curse and the Super Bowl Loser curse.

Could there be such a thing as the NBC Flex Schedule curse?

When NBC signed on to broadcast NFL games, they petitioned to have the ability to choose a desirable game to show to a national audience. This means, no more pre-planned Browns at Cardinals on Sunday night.

But the flex scheduling may have upset the Football Gods. When NBC selected this weekend’s game, it was slated as a match-up between the undefeated Indianapolis Colts, chasing the ’72 Dolphins and NFL immortality, and the Philadelphia Eagles, led by superstar quarterback Donovan McNabb, who is putting up MVP-caliber numbers.

Oops.

Now NBC will televise the once-defeated Colts who suddenly don’t even look like the best team in the AFC let alone NFL history, and an Eagles offense piloted by either Jeff Garcia or A.J. Feeley.

If such a curse exists, I implore NBC to flex their corporate muscle and put the Dallas Cowboys on a Sunday night in the very near future.

As for tomorrow’s games, I have a tradition by which I always pick the Lions and whoever is playing Dallas. No sense in changing now.

Thursday, November 23rd. 2006

The Match-up: Miami (-3.0) @ Detroit
The Skinny: Surprisingly, Joey Harrington’s return to Detroit is receiving very little fanfare. Should be just like his Lions playing career.
Straight Up: Detroit
Against the Spread: Detroit

The Match-up: Tampa Bay (+11.0) @ Dallas
The Skinny: Maybe Tony Homo will get food poisoning and miss the game, relegating him to back-up status.
Straight Up: Tampa Bay
Against the Spread: Tampa Bay

The Match-up: Denver (-1.0) @ Kansas City
The Skinny: I’ll be the first to admit that I was wrong in thinking the Broncos wouldn’t cough up a big lead like they did against San Diego last week. Either the Chargers are really that good, or Denver’s defense might have been exposed. The truth probably lies somewhere in between.
Straight Up: Kansas City
Against the Spread: Kansas City

The Week 11 Picks

Apologies for the brevity of this column, however it’s a getaway day for The Kid.

While I’m thinking about it, the annual "Thanksgiving Day Deuce" will be coming to you live from my old stomping grounds, and chances are I'll be all hopped up on Pudge's cheese steaks, Rosenberger's lemon iced tea, and of course Mom's spaghetti and meatballs (easily the best in the world). Not to get ahead of myself, but I like the third game on turkey day, even if it does render the title of The Deuce obsolete. I guess I’ll have to come up with something new.

Sunday, November 19th, 2006

The Match-up: St. Louis (+7.0) @ Carolina
The Skinny: Monday night was a microcosm of the Panthers’ season – brutal first half, strong second half. Carolina is suddenly only a game back in the NFC South, and New Orleans and Atlanta both look vulnerable. The Panthers seem poised to go on a run and become the Super Bowl contender everyone thought they would be.
Straight Up: Carolina
Against the Spread: Carolina

The Match-up: New England (-5.5) @ Green Bay
The Skinny: Brett Favre must be excited that Vinny Testaverde is back in the league. Now Favre doesn’t seem so old.
Straight Up: New England
Against the Spread: New England

The Match-up: Atlanta (+4.0) @ Baltimore
The Skinny: Why do I get the funny feeling that Ron Mexico will re-emerge this week and get back to being that guy who played so well a few weeks ago? They may not win it, but they’ll be in it.
Straight Up: Baltimore
Against the Spread: Atlanta

The Match-up: Oakland (+9.5) @ Kansas City
The Skinny: Props to Herm Edwards for having the wherewithal to bring Trent Green back for a scrimmage. Wait, you mean this game counts? Somebody better tell Randy Moss. Maybe he’ll actually show up.
Straight Up: Kansas City
Against the Spread: Oakland

The Match-up: Buffalo (+2.5) @ Houston
The Skinny: The Bills actually gave the Colts a scare last week, but fell short. Set up for a let-down against Houston? That might explain why the Texans are favored.
Straight Up: Houston
Against the Spread: Houston

The Match-up: Minnesota (+3.5) @ Miami
The Skinny: It’s the first ever Daunte Culpepper Bowl! I know Culpepper doesn’t play for the Vikings anymore, but the way they’ve collapsed it seems like he never left.
Straight Up: Miami
Against the Spread: Miami

The Match-up: Cincinnati (+3.5) @ New Orleans
The Skinny: I think both of these teams have been exposed on defense of late. The Saints blew a halftime lead and gave up 38 to the Steelers in the ‘burgh. Cincinnati, meanwhile, came from 21 ahead to lose to San Diego. Could either of these defenses, I don’t know, defend?
Straight Up: Cincinnati
Against the Spread: Cincinnati

The Match-up: Chicago (-7.0) @ New York Jets
The Skinny: I hope the Bears are enjoying New York City, their home away from home. The Bears will play their second straight game in the Meadowlands, and thanks largely to last week’s beat down of the Giants, the trip would have to be deemed a success.
Straight Up: Chicago
Against the Spread: New York Jets

The Match-up: Tennessee (+13.0) @ Philadelphia
The Skinny: Reports of the demise of the Eagles may have been greatly exaggerated. Shutting down the run in a 27-3 division win over Washington should restore the swagger, and another strong showing against Vince Young and the Titans will serve notice to the rest of the league.
Straight Up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia

The Match-up: Pittsburgh (-3.5) @ Cleveland
The Skinny: A hearty welcome back to the Pittsburgh Steelers, who rediscovered their identity and ran the ball to a win over New Orleans. Running to set up the pass (as opposed to the alternative) makes Ben Roethlisberger a better quarterback.
Straight Up: Pittsburgh
Against the Spread: Pittsburgh

The Match-up: Washington (+3.0) @ Tampa Bay
The Skinny: Let’s see, young quarterback making his first NFL start on the road against a decent defense without his all-pro running back? Sounds like a recipe for disaster.
Straight Up: Tampa Bay
Against the Spread: Tampa Bay

The Match-up: Detroit (+2.0) @ Arizona
The Skinny: Yes, I’m taking the Lions on the road. That should tell you what I think about the Cardinals.
Straight Up: Detroit
Against the Spread: Detroit

The Match-up: Seattle (-4.5) @ San Francisco
The Skinny: Reports are that Shaun Alexander is back and will start Sunday against the 49ers. Matt Hasselbeck should be back soon, too. Looks like the Seahawks, despite the injuries, may have broken the Super Bowl loser’s curse.
Straight Up: Seattle
Against the Spread: Seattle

The Match-up: Indianapolis (-1.0) @ Dallas
The Skinny: As wide receivers go, there will be two guys on display in The Toilet on Sunday that are polar opposites. Indianapolis’ Marvin Harrison is all class – hard working, soft-spoken, humble, and one of the best receivers the league has ever seen. And then, there’s TOFU – narcissistic, narcoleptic, and generally a piece of crap. That alone should make you pull for the Colts.
Straight Up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Indianapolis

The Match-up: San Diego (+2.5) @ Denver
The Skinny: Despite the fact that their offense hung 49 on the Bengals last week, San Diego’s defense scares me. And if they do fall behind in Denver, sledding up the comeback trail will be a lot tougher, if not impossible.
Straight Up: Denver
Against the Spread: Denver

Monday, November 20th, 2006

The Match-up: New York Giants (+3.5) @ Jacksonville
The Skinny: Maybe David Garrard was looking over his shoulder when he threw four picks in last week’s disappointing loss to Houston. And if he wasn’t, maybe he should have been.
Straight Up: New York Giants
Against the Spread: New York Giants

The Week 10 Picks

Welcome to the stretch drive.

As it stands right now. the Colts are chasing the ’72 Dolphins (again), they’ve already beaten the Broncos and Patriots, supposedly the class of the AFC, and they are getting healthy on defense. Meanwhile, in the NFC, there are ten teams (Chicago, New York, New Orleans, Seattle, Atlanta, Philadelphia, Carolina, Dallas, Minnesota, and St. Louis) with a legitimate shot at the six post-season spots. There are no more bye weeks, literally and figuratively. One off week could mean the difference between playing in January and drafting in the teens come April.

Without further ado, on to the games…

Sunday, November 12th, 2006

The Match-up: Cleveland (Off) @ Atlanta
The Skinny: Before the game was taken off the board due to injuries to Charlie Frye, Willie McGinest, and General Winslow, Atlanta was favored by eight. As a pick, it’s a no brainer, whether or not the aforementioned injured Browns play.
Straight Up: Atlanta
Against the Spread: Atlanta

The Match-up: Washington (+7.0) @ Philadelphia
The Skinny: I can’t emphasize how important this game is to both teams. After opening 4-1 and sitting atop everybody’s list, the Eagles have stumbled and are 4-4. Washington kept their hopes alive by beating Dallas last week. A win on Sunday could set the tone for the rest of the season.
Straight Up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia

The Match-up: San Diego (-1.0) @ Cincinnati
The Skinny: The Bengals are in disarray right now. Carson Palmer may not be 100% recovered from his knee injury, Rudi Johnson wants more carries, and Ocho Cinco only has two touchdowns on the year. Sitting two games behind Baltimore, another Cincinnati loss could be the final nail in the coffin.
Straight Up: San Diego
Against the Spread: San Diego

The Match-up: San Francisco (+6.0) @ Detroit
The Skinny: If there’s one team that gives me fits, it’s the Santa Clara 49ers. Just when I think I’ve got them figured out (they’ll give the Bears a fight, so take them plus the sixteen and a half), they burn me (no way they beat Minnesota). That being said, proceed with caution on this one.
Straight Up: Detroit
Against the Spread: Detroit

The Match-up: Baltimore (-7.0) @ Tennessee
The Skinny: Steve McNair returns to Tennessee to face Vince Young, who is perhaps the next Steve McNair. Young has been impressive, and the Ravens may be without Ray Lewis and Ed Reed. This one will be closer than it should be.
Straight Up: Baltimore
Against the Spread: Tennessee

The Match-up: Buffalo (+12.0) @ Indianapolis
The Skinny: Classic donut game for the Colts, coming off an emotional win in Foxboro and a trip to The Toilet to take on the Cowgirls next week. But the Bills are without Willis McGahee, and his absence will be too much to overcome.
Straight Up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Indianapolis

The Match-up: Houston (+10.5) @ Jacksonville
The Skinny: It would seem as though David Carr got the message sent by Gary Kubiak when he was benched a couple of weeks ago. The Texans had a lead late in the Meadowlands against the Giants, but couldn’t finish. Jacksonville is due for an offensive clunker, but David Garrard is 6-1 as a starter, so he gets the job done more often than not.
Straight Up: Jacksonville
Against the Spread: Houston

The Match-up: Kansas City (-1.0) @ Miami
The Skinny: Miami won their Super Bowl last week by beating Chicago. This week, they’ll have no answer for LJ and whichever quarterback wins the Herm Edwards sweepstakes.
Straight Up: Kansas City
Against the Spread: Kansas City

The Match-up: Green Bay (+5.5) @ Minnesota
The Skinny: Minnesota’s offense has amassed ten points in their last two games. Scoring seven in a loss to New England? Acceptable. Scoring three in a loss in San Francisco? Not so much.
Straight Up: Minnesota
Against the Spread: Minnesota

The Match-up: New York Jets (+10.5) @ New England
The Skinny: At 4-4, the Jets will have a look at the playoffs. They gave the Pats a battle in Week 2, and New England is dinged, especially in the secondary with Rodney Harrison on the shelf for a couple of weeks. The Jets may fall to 4-5, but they’ll go down swinging.
Straight Up: New England
Against the Spread: New York Jets

The Match-up: Denver (-9.0) @ Oakland
The Skinny: The good news for the Raiders is that this game is not being played on a Monday. After all, Oakland has scored as many points on Monday night this year as I have, and Raider quarterbacks have been sacked 18 times in those two contests. So they may get on the scoreboard against Denver, but don’t expect much more than that.
Straight Up: Denver
Against the Spread: Denver

The Match-up: Dallas (-7.0) @ Arizona
The Skinny: Classic TOFU last week – says undiagnosed narcolepsy causes him to fall asleep in team meetings, scores a touchdown, then celebrates by laying down in the end zone and using the football as a pillow. Oh, and he dropped what would have been another touchdown that would have sealed the game and Washington ended up winning. But TOFU isn’t upset. After all, he’s got 25 million reasons to be happy.
Straight Up: Arizona
Against the Spread: Arizona

The Match-up: New Orleans (+4.5) @ Pittsburgh
The Skinny: When the overwhelming suspicions that a team has mailed it in are confirmed by a player on the team saying that the team has mailed it in, that’s not a good sign. Who thought the Steelers, the defending Super Bowl champs, would be playing the role of a spoiler on the second Sunday in November?
Straight Up: Pittsburgh
Against the Spread: New Orleans

The Match-up: St. Louis (+3.5) @ Seattle
The Skinny: How much longer can the Seahawks hold it together without Hasselbeck and Alexander? A win over the Rams could in essence lock up the division, then the ‘Hawks can focus on getting healthy for the playoffs.
Straight Up: Seattle
Against the Spread: Seattle

The Match-up: Chicago (Pick) @ New York Giants
The Skinny: What a dilemma. The key to beating the Bears is to get in Rex Grossman’s kitchen, yet the Giants will be without their top two defensive ends (Michael Strahan and Osi Umienyora). The Bears are not without their own injury concerns, as stud linebacker Brian Urlacher may be out. Tough call, but I think Tiki Barber takes over the game and will be the best player on the field.
Straight Up: New York Giants
Against the Spread: New York Giants

Monday, November 13th, 2006

The Match-up: Tampa Bay (+9.5) @ Carolina
The Skinny: The once-hallowed Tampa Bay defense now has problems stopping the run and the pass. Steve Smith always seems to have a little something extra for the Bucs, and Monday night should be no different.
Straight Up: Carolina
Against the Spread: Carolina

The Week 9 Picks

It’s Week 9 in the NFL. Eight weeks in, eight weeks after this one, meaning it’s basically halftime. And halftime is a time to review the game plan you came in with, see what’s working and what’s not, and make adjustments to have a strong second half. Sounds like a plan to me. Let’s review the pre-season picks and see how we’re shaping up at the turn.

As division winners go, looks like Baltimore, Indianapolis, Denver, and Chicago were solid (if not easy) predictions. Projected playoff teams New England, Philadelphia, New York Giants, Carolina, and Atlanta are all in contention for the post-season. As a lot of people did, I completely whiffed on the strength of the Miami Dolphins (a huge disappointment) and the weakness of the New Orleans Saints (a pleasant surprise). I wouldn’t throw dirt on San Diego, Jacksonville, or St. Louis just yet. Feel free to stick a fork in Houston, Washington, and Arizona, because they’re done.

I said Eagles and Colts in the Super Bowl, so I’ll stand by that. For now. I may want to revise that pick after the Colts visit New England on Sunday.

My sleeper team, the Cleveland Browns, have yet to come out of hibernation. After firing their offensive coordinator, they re-committed to the run with Reuben Droughns. Just as I start to come around, Corporal "Evil Kellen-evil" Winslow opens his mouth and proclaims himself the best tight end in the league (more on this clown later). The jury is still out on the Browns.

If I could get a mulligan on the individual award winners based on the first eight weeks of the year, here’s how they would look:
MVP: Peyton Manning, Indianapolis – Obviously.

Coach of the Year: Bill Belichick, New England – Maybe this isn’t the year the Patriots come back to the pack. It warrants mentioning that their receivers are Troy Brown, Reche Caldwell, Doug Gabriel, and rookie Chad Jackson.

Offensive Player of the Year: LaDanian Tomlinson, San Diego – He’s putting up sick, sick rushing and receiving numbers and scoring at will. No doubt in my mind he’s the best all-around running back in the league.

Defensive Player of the Year: Julius Peppers, Carolina – His outstanding play, coupled with the steroid suspension of San Diego’s Shawne Merriman make Peppers the odds on favorite here.

Offensive Rookie of the Year: Laurence Maroney, New England – I still like the way my pick (Joseph Addai) and everyone else’s (Reggie Bush) have played, but Maroney’s impact has been awesome.

Defensive Rookie of the Year: Mark Anderson, Chicago – What, you’ve never heard of him? I hadn’t either, until I noticed he’s already recorded 7 ½ sacks this season for the Bears, on pace to break the NFL’s rookie record of 14 ½ set by Jevon Kearse in 1999.

Lastly, a personal assessment. As the picks go, I’d give myself a C+. There was the high of the near perfect 13-1 straight up and 11-1-2 against the spread Week 5, and the mediocre three-week span that has followed (19-21; 19-20-1). Overall, the record shows 70-44 winners and 59-49-6 by the numbers. Yes, it’s halftime, and I plan to make the adjustments and have a strong second half.

And away we go.

Sunday, November 5th, 2006

The Match-up: Houston (+13.0) @ New York Giants
The Skinny: The Giants have had a relatively tough schedule thus far. They were due for a cupcake sooner or later. Enter the Houston Texans. You know you’ve hit rock bottom when you get benched in favor of Sage Rosenfels.
Straight Up: New York Giants
Against the Spread: New York Giants

The Match-up: New Orleans (–1.0) @ Tampa Bay
The Skinny: If not for a Reggie Bush punt return TD, the Bucs might have beaten the Saints in New Orleans a couple of weeks ago. I don’t see Tampa punting it to Bush if they’re protecting a lead this time.
Straight Up: Tampa Bay
Against the Spread: Tampa Bay

The Match-up: Green Bay (+3.0) @ Buffalo
The Skinny: While it may look like Brett Favre is playing good football, it should be noted that his good games of late have come against teams like Miami and Arizona. A tougher test awaits in Buffalo.
Straight Up: Buffalo
Against the Spread: Buffalo

The Match-up: Dallas (–3.0) @ Washington
The Skinny: See what happens when you start a better quarterback? The head coach is happy, the receivers are happy. I’m telling you, no good can come of this. Please, Tuna. Please get Drew Bled-slow back under center.
Straight Up: Washington
Against the Spread: Washington

The Match-up: Miami (+13.5) @ Chicago
The Skinny: I made a mistake last week of taking a clearly inferior team (San Francisco) plus a butt-load of points thinking that the Bears wouldn’t score enough points. But with that defense forcing turnovers and giving the offense a short field, I won’t make that mistake again.
Straight Up: Chicago
Against the Spread: Chicago

The Match-up: Tennessee (+9.5) @ Jacksonville
The Skinny: This looks like a classic struggle game for the Jaguars. After having their mental fortitude questioned after their 27-7 loss in Houston, the Jags manned up and smacked the Eagles in the mouth. I could see them playing down to the competition on Sunday.
Straight Up: Jacksonville
Against the Spread: Tennessee

The Match-up: Atlanta (–5.5) @ Detroit
The Skinny: Who is that guy wearing Ron Mexico’s jersey and playing quarterback in Atlanta? Seven TD passes and no picks in the last two games for R-Mex, and maybe the light finally did go on with this guy.
Straight Up: Atlanta
Against the Spread: Atlanta

The Match-up: Cincinnati (+3.0) @ Baltimore
The Skinny: Chad Johnson (sorry, I mean "Ocho Cinco") makes his living by calling out guys on the other team. But Ray Lewis? Are you crazy? Didn’t he knife a guy one time? Choose your battles wisely, Ocho.
Straight Up: Baltimore
Against the Spread: Baltimore

The Match-up: Kansas City (+2.0) @ St. Louis
The Skinny: It remains to be seen whether or not Herm Edwards will go with Trent Green at quarterback or stick with Damon Huard. Either way, I’m not sure it matters.
Straight Up: St. Louis
Against the Spread: St. Louis

The Match-up: Minnesota (–5.0) @ San Francisco
The Skinny: After being blasted at home on Monday, the Vikings need to come out strong on Sunday and reclaim the momentum they had built prior to the Patriots beat-down.
Straight Up: Minnesota
Against the Spread: Minnesota

The Match-up: Denver (+3.0) @ Pittsburgh
The Skinny: Pittsburgh should only be favored if the odds makers have advanced knowledge that Ben Roethlisberger will be lifted for Charlie Batch. Bill Cowher seems reluctant to make that move, so I’ll take Denver and the points.
Straight Up: Denver
Against the Spread: Denver

The Match-up: Cleveland (+12.5) @ San Diego
The Skinny: Corporal Winslow likened this game to a heavyweight battle between the best tight end in the league (himself) and the guy right behind him (Antonio Gates). Winslow also smacked Tony Gonzalez on the way out the door. For the record, let’s do a career tale of the tape amongst these three:

Gates – 52 GP, 226 Rec, 2,828 Yds, 29 TD
Gonzalez – 150 GP, 681 Rec, 8,251 Yds, 57 TD
Winslow – 9 GP, 45 Rec, 443 Yds, 3 TD

So Gates has more touchdowns this year that Winslow has in his career, and Gonzalez has more receptions that Winslow has yards. If there is a title fight, it’s between Gates and Gonzalez. Winslow is merely a tomato can sparring partner on the undercard.
Straight Up: San Diego
Against the Spread: Cleveland

The Match-up: Indianapolis (+3.0) @ New England
The Skinny: Look at the marquis names involved in this game – Manning, Brady, Belichick. This could be the game of the year. And wouldn’t it be some sort of poetic justice if this game came down to a Colts field goal attempt with the game on the line? I’m going with my gut (and Adam Vinatieri) in this one.
Straight Up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Indianapolis

Monday, November 6th, 2006

The Match-up: Oakland (+7.0) @ Seattle
The Skinny: I’m sure the Raiders were very disappointed to see the performance of Seattle back up quarterback Seneca Wallace in Kansas City last week. Wallace put up respectable numbers in a tough environment at Arrowhead. He’ll look even better at home.
Straight Up: Seattle
Against the Spread: Seattle

Bye Week: Arizona, Carolina, New York Jets, Philadelphia

The Week 8 Picks

For the football fan and the fantasy junkie (both of which, I am), you can’t beat NFL.com’s live scoreboard. It updates automatically with every play and live statistics. Sometimes, the web tells me what play is about to happen in the game I’m watching. Yes, I love NFL.com.

Well, at least I did until last weekend.

Imagine my jubilation at seeing this on my screen with :33 to go in the Eagles/Buccaneers game:

"TOUCHDOWN! D. McNabb to B. Westbrook for 52 Yards."

Sweet! Not only did the Eagles rally from 17 down to take the lead, but Westbrook is my fantasy go-to guy. All is well in Ant-Land.

And then, after a kickoff return, a few plays, and a couple of Bucs timeouts, the following note flashes up:

"M. Bryant 62-Yard Field Goal is GOOD!"

Wait, what did that say? No way. There’s no way. NO EFFIN’ WAY! YOU"VE GOT TO BE EFFIN’ KIDDING ME!!! GET THE EFF OUTTA HERE!!!

Sure enough, the final score read Tampa Bay 23, Philadelphia 21.

I hate NFL.com.

I also hate Ronde Barber, and I’d personally like to thank NBC for showing a replay of that little bastard’s TD return in the 2002 NFC Championship game, which almost landed me on a therapist’s couch.

I hate NBC (except, of course, for the Notre Dame broadcasts).

I also turned down a Ron Mexico-Hines Ward for Tom Brady-Reggie Williams trade, thinking Pittsburgh at Atlanta was not a strong match-up for Mex or Ward. Plus, Jacksonville was in Houston, so I was counting on big things from Williams. What happens? Mexico throws it all over the lot, chucks 4 touchdowns, and Ward goes for 180 yards and three TD’s in a 41-38 shootout. Meanwhile, Williams had zero catches, one end around for 8 yards and a grand total of 0.8 fantasy points.

I hate fantasy football, so much so that I pulled a Bob Clarke and temporarily resigned due to lost interest, handing control of "Bonzi’s Pecans" to an interim GM, who hopefully will have better luck than I have had.

Since I’m on a roll, I hate the Dallas Cowboys. I mean, I love that they are in disarray, but I wish they’d stick with that statue of Drew Bled-slow at quarterback, since TOFU favors Tony Romo. I really hate TOFU.

And I really like the Carolina Panthers this week.

Week 7 featured a statistical anomaly, as my record against the spread (7-5-1) was actually better than my straight up score (5-8). Further proof that nothing really went right last week. 100 games into the 2006-07 season, the records are about where you’d expect them to be (63-37 straight up, 53-41-6 by the books). 156 picks to go, starting now.

Sunday, October 29th, 2006

The Match-up: Jacksonville (+7.0) @ Philadelphia
The Skinny: There are no moral victories in the NFL. Nobody is going to hand the 4-3 Eagles a playoff spot because their three losses are by a combined 11 points and all three came on the last play of the game. They’re going to have to earn their way in, starting right now.
Straight Up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia

The Match-up: Atlanta (+3.5) @ Cincinnati
The Skinny: Chad Johnson wants to be known as "Ocho Cinco," and he guaranteed two TD’s against DeAngelo Hall this week. You know what? I believe him. No way Mexico throws it around like he did last week.
Straight Up: Cincinnati
Against the Spread: Cincinnati

The Match-up: Arizona (+4.5) @ Green Bay
The Skinny: I knew I would second-guess myself after sticking with Arizona in Oakland last week. That choke-job against the Bears is still with them.
Straight Up: Green Bay
Against the Spread: Green Bay

The Match-up: Houston (+3.0) @ Tennessee
The Skinny: Houston-native Vince Young shows his home-town team what they could have had. Well, that or the Texans actually show up like they did against the Jags last week.
Straight Up: Tennessee
Against the Spread: Tennessee

The Match-up: Seattle (+6.0) @ Kansas City
The Skinny: It takes a lot for me to actually bet on Damon Huard. The combination of Seneca Wallace and Maurice Morris leading Seattle’s offense does the trick.
Straight Up: Kansas City
Against the Spread: Kansas City

The Match-up: Baltimore (+2.0) @ New Orleans
The Skinny: On the recommendation of my new interim GM, I traded for Joe Horn this week. By default, I have to pick the Saints (which I was going to do anyway).
Straight Up: New Orleans
Against the Spread: New Orleans

The Match-up: Tampa Bay (+9.0) @ New York Giants
The Skinny: After their 1-2 start, the Giants have rallied to three straight wins, making me look smart, since I called it. I’m riding this wave until the Giants play the Eagles again. And Tiki, please take Ronde with you when you ride off into the sunset in January.
Straight Up: New York Giants
Against the Spread: New York Giants

The Match-up: San Francisco (+16.0) @ Chicago
The Skinny: I’m not ready to crown the Bears yet, but at 6-0, they are what we thought they were – a pretty good football team. They will feel the loss of Mike Brown, however.
Straight Up: Chicago
Against the Spread: San Francisco

The Match-up: St. Louis (+10.0) @ San Diego
The Skinny: Why are people so up in arms about the fact that Shawne Merriman will play until his suspension appeal is heard? Do the words "innocent until proven guilty" mean anything? The Merriman situation could pose a slight distraction this week, so I’d look for Bulger and the Rams to hang around.
Straight Up: San Diego
Against the Spread: St. Louis

The Match-up: New York Jets (+2.0) @ Cleveland
The Skinny: OK, I know I picked the Browns as my sleeper this year, but the Jets have played pretty well of late. I’m not sure how Cleveland is favored, but they are. Not by me, though.
Straight Up: New York Jets
Against the Spread: New York Jets

The Match-up: Indianapolis (+3.0) @ Denver
The Skinny: Remember the last time the Colts were an underdog? Me neither. Perhaps the better question is, which quarterback is more reliable in a big game? Neither. That said, I like Denver's defense and the home field advantage of Mile High.
Straight Up: Denver
Against the Spread: Denver

The Match-up: Pittsburgh (-9.0) @ Oakland
The Skinny: Why is Bill Cowher in such a rush to get Ben Roethlisberger back on the field this week against the Raiders? Big Ben picked up his second Lindros since June, and he has struggled in returning from previous injuries. Charlie Batch is 3-0 as a starter in Pittsburgh, and should get the call.
Straight Up: Pittsburgh
Against the Spread: Oakland

The Match-up: Dallas (+5.5) @ Carolina
The Skinny: Tony Romo, meet Julius Peppers. TOFU, meet Carolina’s Steve Smith, the best receiver in the NFL. What kind of odds do you think I can get on Bill Parcells being the first coach to quit or be fired at the end of this season?
Straight Up: Carolina
Against the Spread: Carolina

Monday, October 30th, 2006

The Match-up: New England (-2.0) @ Minnesota
The Skinny: Impressive as the Vikings looked in Seattle last week, it’s still Belichick and Brady on Monday night, and the Patriots continue to fly below the radar.
Straight Up: New England
Against the Spread: New England

Bye Week: Buffalo, Detroit, Miami, Washington

The Week 7 Picks

My motto to describe last week: "Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell."

In other words, don’t ask me why the Eagles couldn’t get off the field on third down in the fourth quarter. Don’t ask me what got into TOFU and his three touchdowns. Don’t ask me why I can’t catch a break with my Fantasy Football team.

And for the love of God, don’t ask me what happened to the Cardinals on Monday night. I’ve watched a lot of football in my life, and I can’t recall a game where the winning team’s quarterback turned the football over six times and had a QB rating of 10.7. No way the Bears should have won that game. The best by-product of that game was Dennis Green’s press conference, which may have been the best outburst since Jim Mora’s "Playoffs?" rant.

But you can ask me why Rams coach Scott Linehan is crying about the NFL’s ten-second run-off rule on penalties. In case you missed it, the Seahawks got flagged for what Linehan thought was a false start with four seconds to go in the game with the Rams up 28-27. Turns out the Seahawks were called for an illegal formation, which does not include the run-off. Seattle’s Kris Brown nails a 54-yard field goal and the ‘Hawks win 30-28. Linehan said that the NFL needs to change the rule. Why? BECAUSE HE LOST! If the shoe was on the other foot, you think Linehan would be complaining about that rule?

If I sound a little bitter about last week, you’re right. I won’t tell you it’s because the Birds lost, the Cowgirls won, and I went 7-6 and 6-7. Just don’t ask me about it.

Sunday, October 22nd, 2006

The Match-up: San Diego (-5.0) @ Kansas City
The Skinny: So much for that improved Kansas City defense. When last we saw them, the Chiefs were busy giving up 45 points to the struggling Steelers. You know who’s not struggling? The Chargers, who just got through routing the Niners behind LaDanian Tomlinson. Did I mention Kansas City’s defense is allowing 129 yards per game on the ground?
Straight Up: San Diego
Against the Spread: San Diego

The Match-up: Green Bay (+5.0) @ Miami
The Skinny: Brett Favre vs. Joey Harrington? Advantage Favre. Miami’s defense vs. Green Bay’s defense? Advantage Miami. Two wins combined for these teams? Advantage nobody.
Straight Up: Miami
Against the Spread: Green Bay

The Match-up: Detroit (+3.5) @ New York Jets
The Skinny: The Jets held off a furious rally from the Dolphins last week (no, seriously) and improved to 3-3. Probably no such rally coming from the Lions.
Straight Up: New York Jets
Against the Spread: New York Jets

The Match-up: Pittsburgh (-2.5) @ Atlanta
The Skinny: The Steelers got back on track a week ago, and the Falcons took one on the chin at the hands of the New York Giants. The Steelers run defense should be able to contain Ron Mexico, meaning he’ll have to throw the ball for the Falcons to have a chance.
Straight Up: Pittsburgh
Against the Spread: Pittsburgh

The Match-up: Philadelphia (-5.0) @ Tampa Bay
The Skinny: The Eagles need a big rebound, especially on defense, after failing to show up in last week’s fourth quarter. The 1-4 Bucs and Bruce Gradkowski should oblige.
Straight Up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia

The Match-up: New England (-5.5) @ Buffalo
The Skinny: Funny how nobody is talking about the Patriots when discussing the league’s elite. They’re certainly a quiet 4-1. Make that 5-1.
Straight Up: New England
Against the Spread: New England

The Match-up: Jacksonville (-9.5) @ Houston
The Skinny: While I do like the Jaguars to win, I’m not so sure the Texans won’t give them a game. From a greed perspective, I’m hoping for big things from Maurice Jones-Drew, Reggie Williams, and Josh Scobey.
Straight Up: Jacksonville
Against the Spread: Houston

The Match-up: Carolina (+3.0) @ Cincinnati
The Skinny: There’s a reason the odds makers are smarter than me. Carolina has won four straight since Steve Smith returned to the line up, and the Bengals don’t have a corner that can stay on the field with him. I know the game is in Cincinnati, but I don’t think Paul Brown Stadium is that big an advantage.
Straight Up: Carolina
Against the Spread: Carolina

The Match-up: Denver (-4.5) @ Cleveland
The Skinny: The only team in the league with fewer points scored than the Broncos? Oakland. And while the Broncos don’t give up a whole lot, they also don’t seem to blow teams out. Even teams like Cleveland.
Straight Up: Denver
Against the Spread: Cleveland

The Match-up: Arizona (-3.0) @ Oakland
The Skinny: I almost, almost, almost took the Raiders to win their first game of the year. That’s how devastating I think the Cardinals choke job could be. I just couldn’t bring myself to pick the Raiders. But don’t be surprised…
Straight Up: Arizona
Against the Spread: Arizona

The Match-up: Minnesota (+6.5) @ Seattle
The Skinny: Last week’s win in St. Louis is proof that the Seahawks can win without Shaun Alexander. They’ll have to do it again this week, as Alexander is still out.
Straight Up: Seattle
Against the Spread: Seattle

The Match-up: Washington (+9.0) @ Indianapolis
The Skinny: Let’s see. The Colts can’t stop the run, and that’s what Clinton Portis and Washington do best. Looks like Peyton Manning will need some more fourth quarter heroics to keep the Colts undefeated.
Straight Up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Washington

Monday, October 23rd, 2006

The Match-up: New York Giants (+3.5) @ Dallas
The Skinny: From the self-promotion department, I told you a week ago the Giants were better than their record. Another tough test for the G-Men in the Toilet.
Straight Up: New York Giants
Against the Spread: New York Giants

Bye Week: Baltimore, Chicago, Kansas City, New Orleans, San Francisco, St. Louis

The Week 6 Picks

Those rumblings you hear coming from Irving, Texas? That’s TOFU about to reach his boiling point. Still steaming after last week’s embarrassing return to Philadelphia (hee hee), TOFU has done everything short of undermining Bill Parcells’ authority and calling Drew Bledsoe gay. This week’s tirade included calling for the ball more (even though 13 of Bledsoe’s pass attempts were directed at TOFU, only three went for receptions) and wondering why he was signed if he was going to be a decoy (then why don’t you go away, you piece of crap?). Can’t see why nobody likes this guy. In fact, TOFU is so hated that I had people coming up to me in the office and at a local shopping establishment as I proudly donned my Donovan McNabb jersey telling me how much they loved seeing him stomping around on the sideline like a third grader in time out. To be honest, it warms my heart.

Now, I don’t want this column to be all about TOFU, but I did want to make one more point - so far this season, the following wide receivers have more touchdowns than TOFU (and to further illustrate my point, I am purposely omitting household names like Torry Holt and Randy Moss, who would also qualify):

Reggie Williams, JAX (4)
Greg Jennings, GB (3)
Marques Colston, NO (3)
Jerricho Cotchery, NYJ (3)
Daniel Wilcox, BAL (2)
Rashied Davis, CHI (2)
John Gilmore, CHI (2)
Mike Furrey, DET (2)
Owen Daniels, HOU (2)
Bryan Fletcher, IND (2)
Chris Baker, NYJ (2)
Malcom Floyd, SD (2)
Arnaz Battle, SF (2)

And, for the record, there are four Eagles with more TD grabs than "The O.D.:"

Reggie Brown (3)
Greg Lewis (2)
Donte’ Stallworth (2)
Brian Westbrook (2)

Yes, last week was almost perfect, and not just the Eagles-Cowboys result. This guy almost recorded an unblemished week, posting marks of 13-1 straight up (losing only the Kansas City-Arizona game) and 10-1-2 against the spread. After such a great week, I’m hoping I’m not set up for a let down, and yes, I’m drawing a parallel to the Eagles. Read on, boys and girls.

Sunday, October 15th 2006

The Match-up: Cincinnati (-5.5) @ Tampa Bay
The Skinny: All jokes aside, Tampa’s Bruce Gradkowski actually looked alright last week, and the Bucs almost pulled off the upset in New Orleans. Cincinnati’s run defense, or the lack thereof, should allow Cadillac Williams and Tampa to hang around. But the Bengals have the weapons to exploit the Tampa D.
Straight Up: Cincinnati
Against the Spread: Tampa Bay

The Match-up: New York Giants (+3.0) @ Atlanta
The Skinny: The philosophy on how to beat Atlanta holds true - keep Ron Mexico in the pocket and make him beat you with his arm. The Giants have the linemen to do that. And, the G-Men are 2-2 with losses to undefeated Indianapolis and 3-1 Seattle and a win over 4-1 Philly. In other words, they’re better than you think.
Straight Up: New York Giants
Against the Spread: New York Giants

The Match-up: Tennessee (+10.5) @ Washington
The Skinny: When the Titans schedule came out, no doubt they circled last week’s game with division-rival Indianapolis. That was their Super Bowl. On the heels of that heartbreaking loss, the Redskins will blow them out.
Straight Up: Washington
Against the Spread: Washington

The Match-up: Houston (+13.0) @ Dallas
The Skinny: Would you believe that David Carr is the NFL’s top rated passer? Me neither.
Straight Up: Houston
Against the Spread: Houston

The Match-up: Carolina (+3.0) @ Baltimore
The Skinny: This game should give some indication as to whether or not the Panthers have turned the corner, and whether or not the Ravens have fallen off. My guess? Yes, and no.
Straight Up: Baltimore
Against the Spread: Baltimore

The Match-up: Buffalo (-1.0) @ Detroit
The Skinny: Based on Buffalo’s performance a week ago in Chicago, I almost took the Lions. But then I realized...they’re the Lions.
Straight Up: Buffalo
Against the Spread: Buffalo

The Match-up: Seattle (-3.0) @ St. Louis
The Skinny: People might be writing off the Seahawks with Shaun Alexander on the shelf. But they’ve still got Matt Hasselbeck, a bevy of talented receivers, and an above average defense. Loosely translated, Seattle should get by St. Louis.
Straight Up: Seattle
Against the Spread: Seattle

The Match-up: Philadelphia (-3.0) @ New Orleans
The Skinny: Tall order for the Eagles in the Big Easy this week. In Andy Reid’s tenure, the Eagles are 11-4 against the Cowboys and 8-6 the following week. And the atmosphere for Saints home games is outstanding. Still, the Eagles will make a big statement on Sunday.
Straight Up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia

The Match-up: Miami (+2.5) @ New York Jets
The Skinny: They call this the "Squish the Fish" game in New York, and I think that’s exactly what’s going to happen.
Straight Up: New York Jets
Against the Spread: New York Jets

The Match-up: Kansas City (+7.0) @ Pittsburgh
The Skinny: Bizarre sequence for Kansas City - lose your starting quarterback, rally around Damon Huard (can’t believe I just wrote that), get fat on the NFC West (wins over San Francisco 41-0 and Arizona 23-20), seven point underdog to 1-3 Pittsburgh at Heinz Field. Sounds about right.
Straight Up: Pittsburgh
Against the Spread: Pittsburgh

The Match-up: San Diego (-10.0) @ San Francisco
The Skinny: Turns out this Philip Rivers kid isn’t too bad. Good things seem to happen when Marty Schottenheimer lets him throw the ball.
Straight Up: San Diego
Against the Spread: San Diego

The Match-up: Oakland (+15.0) @ Denver
The Skinny: I’ve got a funny feeling about this game. Not a feeling like the Raiders will steal a win or anything, but I could see them keeping it close, too close for Denver’s liking.
Straight Up: Denver
Against the Spread: Oakland

Monday, October 16th 2006

The Match-up: Chicago (-10.5) @ Arizona
The Skinny: Another week, another cupcake for the Bears. You want an impressive stat? In four of their five games, the Bears have outscored their opposition by 117 points (137-20), an average margin of victory of better than 29 points per game. Wow.
Straight Up: Chicago
Against the Spread: Chicago

Bye Week: Cleveland, Green Bay, Indianapolis, Jacksonville, Minnesota, New England