The Week 10 Picks

Welcome to the stretch drive.

As it stands right now. the Colts are chasing the ’72 Dolphins (again), they’ve already beaten the Broncos and Patriots, supposedly the class of the AFC, and they are getting healthy on defense. Meanwhile, in the NFC, there are ten teams (Chicago, New York, New Orleans, Seattle, Atlanta, Philadelphia, Carolina, Dallas, Minnesota, and St. Louis) with a legitimate shot at the six post-season spots. There are no more bye weeks, literally and figuratively. One off week could mean the difference between playing in January and drafting in the teens come April.

Without further ado, on to the games…

Sunday, November 12th, 2006

The Match-up: Cleveland (Off) @ Atlanta
The Skinny: Before the game was taken off the board due to injuries to Charlie Frye, Willie McGinest, and General Winslow, Atlanta was favored by eight. As a pick, it’s a no brainer, whether or not the aforementioned injured Browns play.
Straight Up: Atlanta
Against the Spread: Atlanta

The Match-up: Washington (+7.0) @ Philadelphia
The Skinny: I can’t emphasize how important this game is to both teams. After opening 4-1 and sitting atop everybody’s list, the Eagles have stumbled and are 4-4. Washington kept their hopes alive by beating Dallas last week. A win on Sunday could set the tone for the rest of the season.
Straight Up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia

The Match-up: San Diego (-1.0) @ Cincinnati
The Skinny: The Bengals are in disarray right now. Carson Palmer may not be 100% recovered from his knee injury, Rudi Johnson wants more carries, and Ocho Cinco only has two touchdowns on the year. Sitting two games behind Baltimore, another Cincinnati loss could be the final nail in the coffin.
Straight Up: San Diego
Against the Spread: San Diego

The Match-up: San Francisco (+6.0) @ Detroit
The Skinny: If there’s one team that gives me fits, it’s the Santa Clara 49ers. Just when I think I’ve got them figured out (they’ll give the Bears a fight, so take them plus the sixteen and a half), they burn me (no way they beat Minnesota). That being said, proceed with caution on this one.
Straight Up: Detroit
Against the Spread: Detroit

The Match-up: Baltimore (-7.0) @ Tennessee
The Skinny: Steve McNair returns to Tennessee to face Vince Young, who is perhaps the next Steve McNair. Young has been impressive, and the Ravens may be without Ray Lewis and Ed Reed. This one will be closer than it should be.
Straight Up: Baltimore
Against the Spread: Tennessee

The Match-up: Buffalo (+12.0) @ Indianapolis
The Skinny: Classic donut game for the Colts, coming off an emotional win in Foxboro and a trip to The Toilet to take on the Cowgirls next week. But the Bills are without Willis McGahee, and his absence will be too much to overcome.
Straight Up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Indianapolis

The Match-up: Houston (+10.5) @ Jacksonville
The Skinny: It would seem as though David Carr got the message sent by Gary Kubiak when he was benched a couple of weeks ago. The Texans had a lead late in the Meadowlands against the Giants, but couldn’t finish. Jacksonville is due for an offensive clunker, but David Garrard is 6-1 as a starter, so he gets the job done more often than not.
Straight Up: Jacksonville
Against the Spread: Houston

The Match-up: Kansas City (-1.0) @ Miami
The Skinny: Miami won their Super Bowl last week by beating Chicago. This week, they’ll have no answer for LJ and whichever quarterback wins the Herm Edwards sweepstakes.
Straight Up: Kansas City
Against the Spread: Kansas City

The Match-up: Green Bay (+5.5) @ Minnesota
The Skinny: Minnesota’s offense has amassed ten points in their last two games. Scoring seven in a loss to New England? Acceptable. Scoring three in a loss in San Francisco? Not so much.
Straight Up: Minnesota
Against the Spread: Minnesota

The Match-up: New York Jets (+10.5) @ New England
The Skinny: At 4-4, the Jets will have a look at the playoffs. They gave the Pats a battle in Week 2, and New England is dinged, especially in the secondary with Rodney Harrison on the shelf for a couple of weeks. The Jets may fall to 4-5, but they’ll go down swinging.
Straight Up: New England
Against the Spread: New York Jets

The Match-up: Denver (-9.0) @ Oakland
The Skinny: The good news for the Raiders is that this game is not being played on a Monday. After all, Oakland has scored as many points on Monday night this year as I have, and Raider quarterbacks have been sacked 18 times in those two contests. So they may get on the scoreboard against Denver, but don’t expect much more than that.
Straight Up: Denver
Against the Spread: Denver

The Match-up: Dallas (-7.0) @ Arizona
The Skinny: Classic TOFU last week – says undiagnosed narcolepsy causes him to fall asleep in team meetings, scores a touchdown, then celebrates by laying down in the end zone and using the football as a pillow. Oh, and he dropped what would have been another touchdown that would have sealed the game and Washington ended up winning. But TOFU isn’t upset. After all, he’s got 25 million reasons to be happy.
Straight Up: Arizona
Against the Spread: Arizona

The Match-up: New Orleans (+4.5) @ Pittsburgh
The Skinny: When the overwhelming suspicions that a team has mailed it in are confirmed by a player on the team saying that the team has mailed it in, that’s not a good sign. Who thought the Steelers, the defending Super Bowl champs, would be playing the role of a spoiler on the second Sunday in November?
Straight Up: Pittsburgh
Against the Spread: New Orleans

The Match-up: St. Louis (+3.5) @ Seattle
The Skinny: How much longer can the Seahawks hold it together without Hasselbeck and Alexander? A win over the Rams could in essence lock up the division, then the ‘Hawks can focus on getting healthy for the playoffs.
Straight Up: Seattle
Against the Spread: Seattle

The Match-up: Chicago (Pick) @ New York Giants
The Skinny: What a dilemma. The key to beating the Bears is to get in Rex Grossman’s kitchen, yet the Giants will be without their top two defensive ends (Michael Strahan and Osi Umienyora). The Bears are not without their own injury concerns, as stud linebacker Brian Urlacher may be out. Tough call, but I think Tiki Barber takes over the game and will be the best player on the field.
Straight Up: New York Giants
Against the Spread: New York Giants

Monday, November 13th, 2006

The Match-up: Tampa Bay (+9.5) @ Carolina
The Skinny: The once-hallowed Tampa Bay defense now has problems stopping the run and the pass. Steve Smith always seems to have a little something extra for the Bucs, and Monday night should be no different.
Straight Up: Carolina
Against the Spread: Carolina