The Week 9 Picks

It’s Week 9 in the NFL. Eight weeks in, eight weeks after this one, meaning it’s basically halftime. And halftime is a time to review the game plan you came in with, see what’s working and what’s not, and make adjustments to have a strong second half. Sounds like a plan to me. Let’s review the pre-season picks and see how we’re shaping up at the turn.

As division winners go, looks like Baltimore, Indianapolis, Denver, and Chicago were solid (if not easy) predictions. Projected playoff teams New England, Philadelphia, New York Giants, Carolina, and Atlanta are all in contention for the post-season. As a lot of people did, I completely whiffed on the strength of the Miami Dolphins (a huge disappointment) and the weakness of the New Orleans Saints (a pleasant surprise). I wouldn’t throw dirt on San Diego, Jacksonville, or St. Louis just yet. Feel free to stick a fork in Houston, Washington, and Arizona, because they’re done.

I said Eagles and Colts in the Super Bowl, so I’ll stand by that. For now. I may want to revise that pick after the Colts visit New England on Sunday.

My sleeper team, the Cleveland Browns, have yet to come out of hibernation. After firing their offensive coordinator, they re-committed to the run with Reuben Droughns. Just as I start to come around, Corporal "Evil Kellen-evil" Winslow opens his mouth and proclaims himself the best tight end in the league (more on this clown later). The jury is still out on the Browns.

If I could get a mulligan on the individual award winners based on the first eight weeks of the year, here’s how they would look:
MVP: Peyton Manning, Indianapolis – Obviously.

Coach of the Year: Bill Belichick, New England – Maybe this isn’t the year the Patriots come back to the pack. It warrants mentioning that their receivers are Troy Brown, Reche Caldwell, Doug Gabriel, and rookie Chad Jackson.

Offensive Player of the Year: LaDanian Tomlinson, San Diego – He’s putting up sick, sick rushing and receiving numbers and scoring at will. No doubt in my mind he’s the best all-around running back in the league.

Defensive Player of the Year: Julius Peppers, Carolina – His outstanding play, coupled with the steroid suspension of San Diego’s Shawne Merriman make Peppers the odds on favorite here.

Offensive Rookie of the Year: Laurence Maroney, New England – I still like the way my pick (Joseph Addai) and everyone else’s (Reggie Bush) have played, but Maroney’s impact has been awesome.

Defensive Rookie of the Year: Mark Anderson, Chicago – What, you’ve never heard of him? I hadn’t either, until I noticed he’s already recorded 7 ½ sacks this season for the Bears, on pace to break the NFL’s rookie record of 14 ½ set by Jevon Kearse in 1999.

Lastly, a personal assessment. As the picks go, I’d give myself a C+. There was the high of the near perfect 13-1 straight up and 11-1-2 against the spread Week 5, and the mediocre three-week span that has followed (19-21; 19-20-1). Overall, the record shows 70-44 winners and 59-49-6 by the numbers. Yes, it’s halftime, and I plan to make the adjustments and have a strong second half.

And away we go.

Sunday, November 5th, 2006

The Match-up: Houston (+13.0) @ New York Giants
The Skinny: The Giants have had a relatively tough schedule thus far. They were due for a cupcake sooner or later. Enter the Houston Texans. You know you’ve hit rock bottom when you get benched in favor of Sage Rosenfels.
Straight Up: New York Giants
Against the Spread: New York Giants

The Match-up: New Orleans (–1.0) @ Tampa Bay
The Skinny: If not for a Reggie Bush punt return TD, the Bucs might have beaten the Saints in New Orleans a couple of weeks ago. I don’t see Tampa punting it to Bush if they’re protecting a lead this time.
Straight Up: Tampa Bay
Against the Spread: Tampa Bay

The Match-up: Green Bay (+3.0) @ Buffalo
The Skinny: While it may look like Brett Favre is playing good football, it should be noted that his good games of late have come against teams like Miami and Arizona. A tougher test awaits in Buffalo.
Straight Up: Buffalo
Against the Spread: Buffalo

The Match-up: Dallas (–3.0) @ Washington
The Skinny: See what happens when you start a better quarterback? The head coach is happy, the receivers are happy. I’m telling you, no good can come of this. Please, Tuna. Please get Drew Bled-slow back under center.
Straight Up: Washington
Against the Spread: Washington

The Match-up: Miami (+13.5) @ Chicago
The Skinny: I made a mistake last week of taking a clearly inferior team (San Francisco) plus a butt-load of points thinking that the Bears wouldn’t score enough points. But with that defense forcing turnovers and giving the offense a short field, I won’t make that mistake again.
Straight Up: Chicago
Against the Spread: Chicago

The Match-up: Tennessee (+9.5) @ Jacksonville
The Skinny: This looks like a classic struggle game for the Jaguars. After having their mental fortitude questioned after their 27-7 loss in Houston, the Jags manned up and smacked the Eagles in the mouth. I could see them playing down to the competition on Sunday.
Straight Up: Jacksonville
Against the Spread: Tennessee

The Match-up: Atlanta (–5.5) @ Detroit
The Skinny: Who is that guy wearing Ron Mexico’s jersey and playing quarterback in Atlanta? Seven TD passes and no picks in the last two games for R-Mex, and maybe the light finally did go on with this guy.
Straight Up: Atlanta
Against the Spread: Atlanta

The Match-up: Cincinnati (+3.0) @ Baltimore
The Skinny: Chad Johnson (sorry, I mean "Ocho Cinco") makes his living by calling out guys on the other team. But Ray Lewis? Are you crazy? Didn’t he knife a guy one time? Choose your battles wisely, Ocho.
Straight Up: Baltimore
Against the Spread: Baltimore

The Match-up: Kansas City (+2.0) @ St. Louis
The Skinny: It remains to be seen whether or not Herm Edwards will go with Trent Green at quarterback or stick with Damon Huard. Either way, I’m not sure it matters.
Straight Up: St. Louis
Against the Spread: St. Louis

The Match-up: Minnesota (–5.0) @ San Francisco
The Skinny: After being blasted at home on Monday, the Vikings need to come out strong on Sunday and reclaim the momentum they had built prior to the Patriots beat-down.
Straight Up: Minnesota
Against the Spread: Minnesota

The Match-up: Denver (+3.0) @ Pittsburgh
The Skinny: Pittsburgh should only be favored if the odds makers have advanced knowledge that Ben Roethlisberger will be lifted for Charlie Batch. Bill Cowher seems reluctant to make that move, so I’ll take Denver and the points.
Straight Up: Denver
Against the Spread: Denver

The Match-up: Cleveland (+12.5) @ San Diego
The Skinny: Corporal Winslow likened this game to a heavyweight battle between the best tight end in the league (himself) and the guy right behind him (Antonio Gates). Winslow also smacked Tony Gonzalez on the way out the door. For the record, let’s do a career tale of the tape amongst these three:

Gates – 52 GP, 226 Rec, 2,828 Yds, 29 TD
Gonzalez – 150 GP, 681 Rec, 8,251 Yds, 57 TD
Winslow – 9 GP, 45 Rec, 443 Yds, 3 TD

So Gates has more touchdowns this year that Winslow has in his career, and Gonzalez has more receptions that Winslow has yards. If there is a title fight, it’s between Gates and Gonzalez. Winslow is merely a tomato can sparring partner on the undercard.
Straight Up: San Diego
Against the Spread: Cleveland

The Match-up: Indianapolis (+3.0) @ New England
The Skinny: Look at the marquis names involved in this game – Manning, Brady, Belichick. This could be the game of the year. And wouldn’t it be some sort of poetic justice if this game came down to a Colts field goal attempt with the game on the line? I’m going with my gut (and Adam Vinatieri) in this one.
Straight Up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Indianapolis

Monday, November 6th, 2006

The Match-up: Oakland (+7.0) @ Seattle
The Skinny: I’m sure the Raiders were very disappointed to see the performance of Seattle back up quarterback Seneca Wallace in Kansas City last week. Wallace put up respectable numbers in a tough environment at Arrowhead. He’ll look even better at home.
Straight Up: Seattle
Against the Spread: Seattle

Bye Week: Arizona, Carolina, New York Jets, Philadelphia