The Week 17 Picks

The race for the NFL playoffs can best be described as a cluster. There are twenty teams that are mathematically still alive, nine of whom have already punched their post-season tickets. Of the eleven remaining, I’d say four have a legitimate chance. Here’s a concise scenario:

AFC
Clinched: San Diego, Baltimore, New England, Indianapolis
Control Own Destiny: New York Jets, Denver
Still Alive: Cincinnati, Jacksonville, Kansas City, Tennessee
What Will Happen: The Jets play the Raiders, and Denver hosts San Francisco, so they’re both likely in; San Diego will beat Arizona to clinch home field; Baltimore will be the two seed.

NFC
Clinched: Chicago, New Orleans, Seattle, Philadelphia, Dallas
Control Own Destiny: Technically, nobody (but the Giants hold most of the tiebreakers)
Still Alive: Atlanta, Carolina, Green Bay, St. Louis
What Will Happen: If the Giants can’t get it together for a must-win tomorrow night, they probably don’t deserve to be in the playoffs anyway; The Rams may be in the cat bird seat here, as they face the Vikings (should be a win) and the teams they need to lose all have tough match-ups (Atlanta in Philly, Carolina in New Orleans, Green Bay in Chicago). Oh, and the Eagles will win the East and be the third seed.

In short, I’d be surprised to see anyone other than the Jets, Broncos, Giants and/or Rams in the playoffs. Of course, this NFL season has been so bizarre, nothing would truly shock me at this point. With that being said, here are the Week 17 picks.

Saturday, December 30, 2006

The Match-up: New York Giants (-2.5) @ Washington
The Skinny: I’ve got Tom Coughlin as the first coach canned in the off-season, just ahead of Jim Mora Jr.
Straight Up: Washington
Against the Spread: Washington

Sunday, December 31, 2006

The Match-up: Jacksonville (+2.5) @ Kansas City
The Skinny: Call it the too little, too late bowl…
Straight Up: Kansas City
Against the Spread: Kansas City

The Match-up: St. Louis (-2.5) @ Minnesota
The Skinny: Of all the teams that the Eagles could face in round one, I think the Rams scare me the most. Steven Jackson is a straight up stud.
Straight Up: St. Louis
Against the Spread: St. Louis

The Match-up: Carolina (-3.0) @ New Orleans
The Skinny: The Saints are firmly entrenched in the number two spot in the NFC, and it’s a must-win for the Panthers. In spite of the fact that Jake del-overrated will be back under center for Carolina (or maybe because of that), I’ve got to go with the Saints.
Straight Up: New Orleans
Against the Spread: New Orleans

The Match-up: Oakland (+12.5) @ New York Jets
The Skinny: Wonder if the Raiders have started printing up replica Brady Quinn #10 jerseys yet.
Straight Up: New York Jets
Against the Spread: New York Jets

The Match-up: Pittsburgh (+6.0) @ Cincinnati
The Skinny: Where will Bill Cowher be coaching next year? My guess is Pittsburgh, because he’s not going to find greener grass anywhere.
Straight Up: Cincinnati
Against the Spread: Cincinnati

The Match-up: Detroit (+12.5) @ Dallas
The Skinny: See if you can figure out who Dallas CB Terrance Newman was talking about in the following quote: "People need to just start playing and stop talking so much. It's a show-me league and talking is not going to do anything." (I’ll give you a hint – his nickname is TOFU and he sucks)
Straight Up: Detroit
Against the Spread: Detroit

The Match-up: Seattle (+3.5) @ Tampa Bay
The Skinny: The Bucs gave Chris Simms a two-year contract extension despite the spleen-ectomy that sidelined him most of this season. That’s a real vote of confidence for Bruce Gradkowski.
Straight Up: Seattle
Against the Spread: Seattle

The Match-up: New England (+3.0) @ Tennessee
The Skinny: Why go against the next big thing at home when he’ll likely be facing a team quarterbacked by Matt Cassell in the second half? Gut feeling.
Straight Up: New England
Against the Spread: New England

The Match-up: Cleveland (+4.0) @ Houston
The Skinny: Whoever will be managing the Browns 2007 draft should look up Charlie Casserly and ask him if he would take a mulligan on the ’06 draft. Troy Smith in Cleveland could be a perfect situation for both.
Straight Up: Cleveland
Against the Spread: Cleveland

The Match-up: Atlanta (+8.0) @ Philadelphia
The Skinny: Ron Mexico threw Jim Mora under the bus this week, saying there’s too much talent on the Falcons for them to be in the position they are. Mexico should know best. He’s Exhibit A.
Straight Up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia

The Match-up: Arizona (+13.5) @ San Diego
The Skinny: Jason Taylor may not think Shawne Merriman is a viable candidate for Defensive Player of the Year, but Kurt Warner will by the end of Sunday.
Straight Up: San Diego
Against the Spread: San Diego

The Match-up: San Francisco (+10.5) @ Denver
The Skinny: Frank Gore alone may be enough to keep the game close, but the Broncos should come out on top.
Straight Up: Denver
Against the Spread: San Francisco

The Match-up: Buffalo (+9.0) @ Baltimore
The Skinny: A game featuring two teams on the east coast kicks off at 4:00, the same time as the Chargers-Cardinals game when the Chargers and Ravens are battling for the top seed in the AFC. Coincidence?
Straight Up: Baltimore
Against the Spread: Baltimore

The Match-up: Miami (+9.0) @ Indianapolis
The Skinny: There are a few reasons I was leaning towards Miami (good defense, a healthy Ronnie Brown, Indy’s porous run defense) and one overwhelming reason why I went with the Colts (Cleo Lemon will start at quarterback for the Dolphins on Sunday).
Straight Up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Indianapolis

The Match-up: Green Bay (+3.0) @ Chicago
The Skinny: The funny thing is, if the Bears were to rest Rex Grossman and Thomas Jones in favor of Brian Griese and Cedric Benson, they might have been a seven point favorite. Happy trails, Brett (just in case), and congratulations on a Hall-of-Fame career.
Straight Up: Chicago
Against the Spread: Chicago