The Week 5 Picks

Can you believe that Sunday marks Week 5 already? Its unreal how fast this season is going by. I guess we’re coming up on mid-season, and as coincidence would have it, The Kid is starting to round into mid-season form. Last week’s 10-4 record was my third consecutive 10+ win week, bringing the season record to 39-21 (only percentage points behind ESPN’s top guy, Sean Salisbury, sitting at 39-20). My 9-5 record against the spread was not only my best week of the year, but also got me back above .500 for the season. It’s usually around this time that I hang a 4-10, 3-11 week up there. You’ve been warned.

The Match-up: Baltimore (+1.5) @ Detroit
The Skinny: I know it seems like I rank on Joey Harrington every week, and I usually do. But I thought he showed some signs of life in almost leading the Lions to a road upset in Tampa a week ago. It’s a shame Harrington doesn’t play like that all the time. If he did, Lions fans wouldn’t be counting down the days until Jeff Garcia returns from his broken leg.
Straight up: Baltimore
Against the Spread: Baltimore

The Match-up: New Orleans (+3.0) @ Green Bay
The Skinny: The good news for the Green Bay Packers? Even at 0-4, they are not mathematically eliminated from the playoffs. That’s not to say I’d feel good about their chances, especially with that defense. But if the Packers are going to win 6-7 games this year (which might actually win the NFC North), they’ll need to start soon.
Straight up: Green Bay
Against the Spread: Green Bay

The Match-up: Seattle (+3.0) @ St. Louis
The Skinny: All kidding aside, the Seattle/St. Louis games of late have been good ones, and they always seem to have some impact on the division standings. Of course, with Arizona and San Francisco in the division, the Rams and Seahawks should be first and second (in some order). St. Louis draws first blood in this year’s round robin.
Straight up: St. Louis
Against the Spread: St. Louis

The Match-up: Tampa Bay (-3.5) @ New York Jets
The Skinny: Every now and again, you get a feeling in your gut about a particular game, even if common sense should tell you to feel otherwise. One of the major keys to Tampa’s early-season success has been the running of Carnell “Cadillac” Williams, but it’s highly unlikely that he’ll be able to go on Sunday. The Jets turn the reigns over to 86-year old Vinny Testaverde, a former Buccaneer, and normally that would scare me. But something is telling me that Vinny and the Jets will get it done.
Straight up: New York Jets
Against the Spread: New York Jets

The Match-up: New England (+3.0) @ Atlanta
The Skinny: Remember something I mentioned a couple of weeks back – the Patriots haven’t lost back-to-back games since Weeks 15 and 16 of the 2002 season. That is ridiculous. Against a one-dimensional Falcons offense (especially with Ron Mexico dinged), I like the Patriots to avoid their second consecutive loss.
Straight up: New England
Against the Spread: New England

The Match-up: Miami (+2.5) @ Buffalo
The Skinny: The Bills will turn to Kelly Holcomb in an attempt to jump-start their slumbering offense. Now, that’s not exactly Jim Sorgi subbing for Peyton Manning, but it probably isn’t the solution to Buffalo’s offensive problems either. The reality for the Bills is that they’ll only go as far as the legs of Willis McGahee will take them.
Straight up: Buffalo
Against the Spread: Buffalo

The Match-up: Chicago (+3.0) @ Cleveland
The Skinny: I was only half-kidding last week when I said the Bears would actually gain ground in their division while on bye last week, but that’s exactly what they did. The first place Bears return to action in Cleveland this week.
Straight up: Chicago
Against the Spread: Chicago

The Match-up: Tennessee (+3.0) @ Houston
The Skinny: In a word? Yawn. I guess somebody has to win, right? I actually liked the way Houston hung around with the mighty Bengals last week. I expect them to ride the legs of Domanick Davis to a ‘W’ this week.
Straight up: Houston
Against the Spread: Houston

The Match-up: Indianapolis (-14.0) @ San Francisco
The Skinny: Normally, a 14-point line would be cause for concern, until you realize it’s the potentially Super Bowl bound Colts taking on the 49ers. Can you imagine what the spread would be if the game was in Indianapolis? Alex Smith will make his first NFL start on Sunday, and if the Niners O-line doesn’t block Dwight Freeney, it may be Smith’s last start as well.
Straight up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Indianapolis

The Match-up: Washington (+7.0) @ Denver
The Skinny: Props to both the Redskins and Broncos on big wins last week. The ‘Skins gave up a late score, but eventually beat Seattle in OT to stay undefeated. Denver stepped into the low altitude and defensively frustrated the Jaguars. When two good defenses go head to head, you can bet the game will be tight. Clinton Portis returns to his old haunts, but it’s Denver who will get the last laugh in a tight one at Mile High.
Straight up: Denver
Against the Spread: Washington

The Match-up: Carolina (-3.0) @ Arizona
The Skinny: Anybody else get the feeling the Panthers were going to come from ahead to lose that game Monday against the Packers? They’ll have to play four full quarters to beat a Cardinals team that looks much, much better with Josh McCown under center in place of Kurt Warner.
Straight up: Carolina
Against the Spread: Carolina

The Match-up: Philadelphia (-3.5) @ Dallas
The Skinny: It’s like Christmas in October for me, as the Eagles head to that piece of crap stadium with the hole in the roof looking to win their fourth straight heading into the bye. Last year, the Birds hung 49 on Dallas on a Monday night (the infamous T.O./Nicolette Sheridan towel game). This year, the only towel involved should be the one Dallas throws in after the Eagles start running them off the field.
Straight up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia

The Match-up: Cincinnati (+2.5) @ Jacksonville
The Skinny: The 4-0 Bengals (that still sounds funny, even though I’m drunk on the Cincinnati Bengals Kool Aid) take their show to Jacksonville, where the Jags will be looking to rebound from last week’s embarrassing loss to Denver. I’m a little skeptical of the line (4-0 Cincinnati a road dog?), thus I’m taking Jacksonville. Maybe the buzz is starting to wear off.
Straight up: Jacksonville
Against the Spread: Jacksonville

The Match-up: Pittsburgh (+3.0) @ San Diego
The Skinny: Courtesy of big wins over the New York Giants and New England Patriots (scoring a combined 86 points in the two victories), the Chargers have evened their record at 2-2 and now face their third straight playoff-caliber team, the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Steelers will still have a bad taste in their mouths, as Monday will be their first game action since being upset by the Pats. That said, the Chargers offense is hot. Maybe too hot for even Pittsburgh’s defense to contain.
Straight up: San Diego
Against the Spread: San Diego