Making the Turn - The Week 9 Picks

It’s that time of the year. This week marks the halfway point of the season, and there’s no time like the present to re-visit some of my pre-season predictions and see how they’re looking now. To recap:

Division Winner Then Now
AFC East New England New England
AFC North Baltimore (oops) Pittsburgh
AFC South Indianapolis Indianapolis
AFC West San Diego Denver
Wild Cards Buffalo, Pittsburgh Jacksonville, San Diego

NFC East Philadelphia Philadelphia
NFC North Minnesota (my bad) Chicago
NFC South Carolina Carolina
NFC West St. Louis St. Louis
Wild Cards Atlanta, Dallas Atlanta, New York Giants

Super Bowl Philadelphia over Indianapolis (I’ll stand by that)

Other than the aforementioned, my biggest pre-season busts were my offensive rookie of the year (Did I say J.J. Arrington? I meant Heath Miller. No, seriously, I did.) and my sleeper team (which I almost nailed with the Bears before I got cold feet and switched to Buffalo). The lesson here? Trust your instincts.

As for the individual scorecard, records of 75-41 (.647) straight up and 59-54-3 (.522) against the spread are comparable to last year’s marks. But we strive for constant improvement around here, so its time to buckle down.

Here’s to a strong second half!

The Match-up: Cincinnati (-3.0) @ Baltimore
The Skinny: I figured one of these teams would be in the hunt in the AFC and the other would be a middle-of-the-road club. So I guess I was right…and wrong.
Straight up: Cincinnati
Against the Spread: Cincinnati

The Match-up: Atlanta (-2.5) @ Miami
The Skinny: Miami is one of those teams that gives me fits. Just when I think I’ve got them figured out, they burn me.
Straight up: Atlanta
Against the Spread: Atlanta

The Match-up: Detroit (0.0) @ Minnesota
The Skinny: Now that Daunte Culpepper’s season is over, the Vikings season is about to go down like a sinking ship, no pun intended. Alright, maybe it was intended.
Straight up: Detroit
Against the Spread: Detroit

The Match-up: San Diego (-6.5) @ New York Jets
The Skinny: The Jets tend to play pretty well at home, but the Chargers may be the best 4-4 team in the history of the league.
Straight up: San Diego
Against the Spread: New York Jets

The Match-up: Carolina (-1.5) @ Tampa Bay
The Skinny: The battle for first place in the NFC South takes place when the Panthers visit the Bucs, with Tampa listed as the underdog. Call it the “Chris Simms Factor.”
Straight up: Carolina
Against the Spread: Carolina

The Match-up: Tennessee (+3.0) @ Cleveland
The Skinny: Earlier I mentioned something about trusting your instincts. Well, for some reason I have a feeling the Titans will pull a mild upset in the dog pound.
Straight up: Tennessee
Against the Spread: Tennessee

The Match-up: Houston (+13.5) @ Jacksonville
The Skinny: Jacksonville doesn’t score enough to justify the high spread. It is almost time for the Texans to start thinking about whether they will take Matt Leinart or Reggie Bush with the #1 pick next April.
Straight up: Jacksonville
Against the Spread: Houston

The Match-up: Oakland (+4.5) @ Kansas City
The Skinny: KC owns Oakland at Arrowhead.
Straight up: Kansas City
Against the Spread: Kansas City

The Match-up: Chicago (-3.0) @ New Orleans
The Skinny: Last week’s OT thriller just about clinched the NFC North for the 4-3 Bears. I wish I was kidding, but I’m not.
Straight up: Chicago
Against the Spread: Chicago

The Match-up: Seattle (-4.0) @ Arizona
The Skinny: Seattle is typically not a good road team. Arizona is just not a good team.
Straight up: Seattle
Against the Spread: Seattle

The Match-up: New York Giants (-11.0) @ San Francisco
The Skinny: Each week, the Giants are looking more and more like a legitimate contender in the NFC. As for San Francisco, Cody Pickett will start at QB this week. What, were Steve Bono and Jim Druckenmiller unavailable?
Straight up: New York Giants
Against the Spread: New York Giants

The Match-up: Pittsburgh (-3.5) @ Green Bay
The Skinny: How bad are the Packers? Not only are they an underdog at Lambeau (which happens roughly once every 5 years), but they’re an underdog against a team led by Charlie Batch.
Straight up: Pittsburgh
Against the Spread: Pittsburgh

The Match-up: Philadelphia (+3.0) @ Washington
The Skinny: The next three weeks will determine a lot about the hierarchy in the NFC East – Philly visits Washington, hosts Dallas (they suck, by the way), and travels to The Meadowlands to take on the Giants. If the birds are going to win the division, they’ll need to take at least two of the next three, perhaps without T.O. Difficult, but not impossible.
Straight up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia

The Match-up: Indianapolis (-3.0) @ New England
The Skinny: Do the Colts FINALLY have New England’s number? They’ve been in this spot before (i.e., favored in Foxboro) and flopped. Will this one be any different? In a word, yes.
Straight up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Indianapolis