The Week 5 Picks

Let’s see…there’s playoff baseball on TV (not featuring the Phillies, unfortunately), and as I write I’m watching the Flyers-Penguins opening night game on the NHL Center Ice package on my digital cable (3-0 Pens right now, and the Flyers are making Mark Andre Fleury look like the second coming of Patrick Roy). That means it must be October.

So why does it feel like Christmas?

Oh yeah, maybe it’s because TOFU comes back to Philly for the first time as a stinkin’ Cowboy, and you’d better believe Eagles fans will be ready. In fact, it started Monday night against Green Bay, as witnessed by a couple of signs seen in the stands:

"T.O., Get Well Soon, So We Can Hurt You."

"Get a Refill. You’re Going to Need Those Pills Soon."

"Next, Time, Make Sure to Get Your Whole Head in Front of the Shotgun." (OK, I made that one up).

There were even unconfirmed rumors of an "O.D." chant.

I can only imagine what’s coming this week, especially with a 4:15 start, meaning an extra three hours of tailgate time, which translates to loosely 180,000 additional beers to be imbibed.

Memo to TOFU – put your helmet on before you get off the bus, and leave it on until you’re on a plane back to Dallas. You’ve been warned.

One more TOFU point - Speaking to the press this week, Donovan McNabb sad he text messaged TOFU after his failed suicide (oops, my bad, I mean accidental overdose) to wish him well and offered an ear if he needed to talk. TOFU defiantly claims he didn’t receive the message. Who do you believe, a guy who has been nothing but class since he entered the league, or the guy who has been a cancer everywhere he’s been? Me too.

By the way, if you get a chance, check out Michael Smith’s article on espn.com about McNabb. It’s an outstanding piece written by a very good journalist that not a lot of people give credit to.

Last Week’s records: 8-6 straight up (38-22 overall), 7-6-1 against the spread (29-28-3).

Sunday, October 8th, 2006

The Match-up: Miami (+9.5) @ New England
The Skinny: So, are the Patriots officially back, or were the Bengals simply overrated. Speaking of overrated, the Daunte Culpepper and the Dolphins will be in Foxboro this week.
Straight Up: New England
Against the Spread: New England

The Match-up: Tampa Bay (+6.5) @ New Orleans
The Skinny: It’s the start of the Bruce Gradkowski era in Tampa, which means the Saints will see a healthy does of Cadillac Williams. I think the Bucs will be able to keep it close, but nobody beats the Saints in New Orleans.
Straight Up: New Orleans
Against the Spread: Tampa Bay

The Match-up: Washington (+4.5) @ New York Giants
The Skinny: The Giants have looked rather ordinary through their first three games, albeit against quality opponents Indianapolis, Philly, and Seattle. In reality, the G-Men are lucky they're not 0-3 right now. Even at 1-2, my gut tells me the Giants at home are the play over the resurgent Redskins.
Straight Up: New York Giants
Against the Spread: New York Giants

The Match-up: Buffalo (+10.0) @ Chicago
The Skinny: The line for this game opened at 11 points and dropped to ten by Wednesday, meaning a lot of people were ramping up on the Bills and the points. Sounds like a pretty good plan to me.
Straight Up: Chicago
Against the Spread: Buffalo

The Match-up: St. Louis (-3.0) @ Green Bay
The Skinny: Who had a worse week then Ahmed Carroll? Reggie Brown and Greg Lewis abused the Packers’ former first round pick on Monday, then he got cut by Green Bay on Tuesday. Ouch.
Straight Up: St. Louis
Against the Spread: St. Louis

The Match-up: Cleveland (+8.0) @ Carolina
The Skinny: The Panthers are back in the thick of the NFC, evening their record at 2-2 with last week’s squeaker over the Saints. Another tight game for Carolina at home. This just in – Steve Smith is pretty good.
Straight Up: Carolina
Against the Spread: Cleveland

The Match-up: Tennessee (+18.0) @ Indianapolis
The Skinny: I thought this was a misprint at first. Eighteen points? That’s crazy. Basically it means Indy is a very good team, and Tennessee basically sucks. Still, I can’t justify leaving that many points on the board.
Straight Up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Tennessee

The Match-up: Detroit (+6.5) @ Minnesota
The Skinny: Congratulations to the Lions for finally scoring in double-digits. Too bad their defense got pasted for 41 points by the Rams.
Straight Up: Minnesota
Against the Spread: Minnesota

The Match-up: Kansas City (-3.5) @ Arizona
The Skinny: I can’t believe Kansas City is as good as they looked last week. I also can’t believe it took Dennis Green this long to hand the car keys to Matt Leinart, who’s got "superstar" written all over him.
Straight Up: Arizona
Against the Spread: Arizona

The Match-up: Oakland (+3.5) @ San Francisco
The Skinny: While this might be a pretty good baseball game, it’s shaping up to be an awful, awful football game.
Straight Up: San Francisco
Against the Spread: San Francisco

The Match-up: New York Jets (+7.0) @ Jacksonville
The Skinny: Remember a couple of weeks ago when some people were labeling Jacksonville as the favorite to emerge from the AFC? Since then, they’re 0-2 and they just allowed Mark Brunell to hang 36 points on them. I still don’t think they’re as bad as they looked in Washington.
Straight Up: Jacksonville
Against the Spread: Jacksonville

The Match-up: Dallas (+2.0) @ Philadelphia
The Skinny: Bottom line – if the Eagles beat Dallas, I don’t care how many yards TOFU gains. But if they hold his sorry ass to 2 catches for 26 yards but the Eagles lose? Nobody’s happy. With any luck, TOFU will go across the middle and Dawk will literally take his head off. Then the Birds will finish off the rest of those sorry bastards.
Straight Up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia

The Match-up: Pittsburgh (+3.5) @ San Diego
The Skinny: The term "Marty-ball" has been thrown around a lot this week, and if you’re not familiar with the concept, it’s basically when a coach calls plays not with the intent to win, but rather trying to avoid the loss. Invariably, the scheme backfires. No more "Marty-ball" from the Chargers, who should have beaten Baltimore.
Straight Up: San Diego
Against the Spread: San Diego

Monday, October 9th, 2006

The Match-up: Baltimore (Off) @ Denver
The Skinny: To be honest, I’m not sure why this game is off the board. I know I picked Baltimore to be pretty good this year, and their 4-0 record has me looking pretty smart. But they’ve needed last-second heroics in consecutive weeks, and you can’t bank on Steve McNair to keep making plays the way he has.
Straight Up: Denver
Against the Spread: Denver

Bye Week: Atlanta, Cincinnati, Houston, Seattle