The Week 4 Picks

Ever been to Vegas? In case you haven’t, it’s a pretty cool place. There are big, tall resort hotels and casinos covered in bright lights, and they’re always building more of them. It truly is an oasis in the middle of the desert. And how can they afford to keep doing this? Because of suckers like me, that’s how. As proven in the past, anyone can pick winners (and I nailed 10 of them last week, bringing my season’s record to 29-17). But those guys that set the lines do so for a reason – to make money. That’s why more often than not a 10-4 straight-up record is accompanied by a 5-9 mark against the spread.

Bye weeks this week for Chicago, Cleveland, Miami and Pittsburgh. No bye week for this guy. That said, here are the Week 4 picks.

The Match-up: Detroit (+6.5) @ Tampa Bay
The Skinny: The scorecard so far on Joey Harrington's "make or break" year? Break. After squeaking by the Packers in Week 1, the Lions looked like, well, the Lions against Chicago the week before the bye. A road trip to red-hot Tampa is imminent.
Straight up: Tampa Bay
Against the Spread: Tampa Bay

The Match-up: Seattle (+2.0) @ Washington
The Skinny: The bye week may have come at a bad time for Washington. Will the Redskins be able to rediscover the momentum they gained during the last 3:46 of the Dallas game on Monday night of Week 2? They’ll have a good chance against a Seattle team that has been abysmal on the road. But I think the ‘Skins are more of the team we saw for the first 56:14 of the Dallas game as opposed to the guys who completed the miracle comeback.
Straight up: Seattle
Against the Spread: Seattle

The Match-up: Houston (+9.5) @ Cincinnati
The Skinny: What in the name of Jack Thompson, “The Throwin’ Samoan,” is going on with the Bengals? I’m not sure if they’re as good as they look or if they’re playing against inferior teams, but the Bengals look great so far. I hope there’s still room on the Bengals bandwagon, because I’m about to climb aboard.
Straight up: Cincinnati
Against the Spread: Cincinnati

The Match-up: Denver (+4.0) @ Jacksonville
The Skinny: Jacksonville may possess the modern-day version of the ‘No Name’ defense. Their not loaded with superstars, but they play an aggressive style predicated on pressuring the quarterback and forcing turnovers. Against a guy prone to the interception like Jake Plummer, the Jags are always a solid play.
Straight up: Jacksonville
Against the Spread: Jacksonville

The Match-up: Indianapolis (-7.0) @ Tennessee
The Skinny: Seriously, Peyton Manning is still playing for the Colts, right? If you would have told me that Manning would have two TD tosses through three games, I would have guessed the Colts would be 0-3 or 1-2. But they’re 3-0 and have allowed a total of 16 points on the season. If you do that, I could be your quarterback and you’d be 3-0.
Straight up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Indianapolis

The Match-up: San Diego (+5.5) @ New England
The Skinny: There's been much said about the Patriots' ability to lose a player to injury or free agency and simply plug in an able body and continue on without missing a beat. But the loss of Rodney Harrison will be extremely hard to cope with, especially against a good running team like San Diego.
Straight up: New England
Against the Spread: San Diego

The Match-up: Buffalo (pick) @ New Orleans
The Skinny: You might as well call the Saints Willie Nelson, because they’re on the road again. This is their third game in less than three weeks. Two of the three were home games but all three will take place in three different stadiums. Figure that out. Much like the Week 1 win over Carolina where emotion carried the Saints, such will be the case in San Antonio on Sunday (especially against a Buffalo defense suddenly minus Takeo Spikes).
Straight up: New Orleans
Against the Spread: New Orleans

The Match-up: St. Louis (+3.0) @ New York Giants
The Skinny: Someone forgot to tell the Giants that they had to play two halves in San Diego last Sunday. After hanging around with the Bolts through the first 30 minutes, the Giants got bum rushed in the second and ended up losing by 22. At lease Eli survived the rabid San Diego crowd.
Straight up: New York Giants
Against the Spread: New York Giants

The Match-up: New York Jets (+7.0) @ Baltimore
The Skinny: Imagine the gambler’s delight upon reading the following sentence as it scrolled along ESPN’s Bottom line: ‘Jets QB Brooks Bollinger expected to start Sunday at Baltimore.’ Brooks, meet Ray Lewis.
Straight up: Baltimore
Against the Spread: Baltimore

The Match-up: Minnesota (+6.0) @ Atlanta
The Skinny: Sad to say that courtesy of last week's win, the 1-2 Vikings are now tied with the Chicago Bears for 2nd place in the NFC North (trailing 1-1 Detroit by mere percentage points). Luckily, if the Vikings fall to 1-3 in Atlanta on Sunday, they're probably still going to be in 2nd place. Can you sense the sarcasm?
Straight up: Atlanta
Against the Spread: Atlanta

The Match-up: Philadelphia (+2.0) @ Kansas City
The Skinny: To be perfectly honest, the line on this game scares me a little bit. It’s not often that the Eagles are underdogs, but they are this week. So does that mean I'm going to break one of my golden rules? Never.
Straight up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia

The Match-up: Dallas (+3.0) @ Oakland
The Skinny: As referenced above, I will never break one of my golden rules, therefore I'm taking the 0-3 (but much better than their record indicates) Raiders to finally break into the win column.
Straight up: Oakland
Against the Spread: Oakland

The Match-up: San Francisco (+2.5) @ Arizona
The Skinny: What a Sunday night barn-burner: 1-2 San Francisco at 0-3 Arizona. I'm sure national TV audiences will be clamoring for this one. Remember everyone saying Arizona was going to win the West? I think some guy pointed out at the beginning of the year that they weren't going to be that good…
Straight up: San Francisco
Against the Spread: San Francisco

The Match-up: Green Bay (+7.5) @ Carolina
The Skinny: An old adage applies here, and its one I’ve committed to memory because I’ve been burned by it in the past – Never bet against Brett Favre on a Monday night.
Straight up: Carolina
Against the Spread: Green Bay