Ah, Week 3, where wide-spread speculation about a team based merely on off-season acquisitions and potential is replaced by actual analysis of real game action. That said, here are a few quick hit observations from the first two weeks of NFL 2005:
-- A 2-0 start does not immediately grant a team “contender” status: Yes, the Bengals and Redskins have looked impressive out of the gates. No, they won’t be facing each other in Detroit on February 5th, 2006.
-- Conversely, an 0-2 record does not signify impending doom. The 2003 Philadelphia Eagles started 0-2 and still went on to win their division and reach the NFC championship game. Keep the faith, Chargers fan!
-- Has there been a more disappointing team thus far than the Minnesota Vikings? Maybe they’re not the most improved team in the league.
-- Speaking of Minnesota, Daunte Culpepper has as many TD passes this year as I do.
-- Another superstar QB whose numbers are down, Peyton Manning has only thrown two TD’s in two games. Captain Math tells us he’s on pace to finsh with 16 scoring tosses this year. I’m willing to bet my “Expert” status that he’ll end up with more than that this year.
-- Can I get a mulligan on my Offensive Rookie of the Year prediction? Through two games, Tampa Bay’s Carnell “Cadillac” Williams sure looks like the real deal.
Anyway, on to the business at hand. Last week’s records: 11-5 straight up (19-13 cumulative), 8-7-1 against the spread (16-15-1). We’re starting to feel it just in time for the first bye week of the year. So as Baltimore, Detroit, Houston and Washington sit at home, we roll on…
The Match-up: Carolina (-3.0) @ Miami
The Skinny: You can call this the Cyndi Lauper Bowl, because it features two teams that have seen both sides of the spectrum thus far. Carolina lost at home to New Orleans in Week 1, then upset the defending champion Patriots a week ago. Miami shocked everybody by stomping Denver in Nick Saban's debut, then only managed seven points in a loss to the Jets last week. So which team will show their true colors in Week 3? Get it, Cyndi Lauper, "True Colors?" Come on, people. Mix in some VH1.
Straight up: Carolina
Against the Spread: Carolina
The Match-up: New Orleans (+4.0) @ Minnesota
The Skinny: America's new team, the Saints, plays its third straight road game (don't let last week's "home" date with the Giants fool you). Say what you want about their resiliency, but the Saints have got to be tired of all this traveling. The Vikings are down, and now key players like Michael Bennett and Nate Burleson are starting to get dinged up. This is exactly the kind of game that the Vikings will win. It'll be close, but I like the Vikes to get off the schneid.
Straight up: Minnesota
Against the Spread: New Orleans
The Match-up: Jacksonville (+2.5) @ New York Jets
The Skinny: Byron Leftwich is a tough s.o.b. I was impressed by his ability to take shot after devastating shot and keep getting up and playing. Reminded me of that game back at Marshall when a couple of his linemen literally had to carry him to the line of scrimmage because he basically couldn't walk. How do you bet against a guy like that?
Straight up: Jacksonville
Against the Spread: Jacksonville
The Match-up: Oakland (+8.0) @ Philadelphia
The Skinny: Come Sunday afternoon, the Raiders could be the best 0-3 team in the league. Talk about a tough schedule out of the gate - at New England, vs. Kansas City, now at Philadelphia. I mean, that's three bona fide contenders in three weeks. My guess is that Darth Raider won't be sending Paul Tagliabue a Christmas card this year.
Straight up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia
The Match-up: Atlanta (off) @ Buffalo
The Skinny: Literally, a coin toss game. Ron Mexico is questionable with a hamstring injury, which might actually help Atlanta (seeing as Buffalo's run defense is very good and Mexico's back up, Matt Schaub, is a better passer). I think Mexico will play, but the Bills will steal a win.
Straight up: Buffalo
Against the Spread: Buffalo
The Match-up: Cincinnati (-3.0) @ Chicago
The Skinny: The match-up everyone will talk about is the explosive offense of theBengals facing the stout Bears defense. But they'll probably cancel each other out. Plain and simple, this game will be decided by the ability of the Bears to run the ball with Thomas Jones, control the clock, and keep Carson Palmer and the Cincinnati offense standing on the sidelines.
Straight up: Chicago
Against the Spread: Chicago
The Match-up: Tampa Bay (-3.5) @ Green Bay
The Skinny: I was only half-kidding when I said last week's Cleveland/Green Bay game was a battle for the first pick in next year's draft. But looking at the other teams in the league, is there a team in more trouble than the Packers? I'm guessing this isn't what Brett Favre had in mind when he signed on for this year.
Straight up: Tampa Bay
Against the Spread: Tampa Bay
The Match-up: Cleveland (+13.5) @ Indianapolis
The Skinny: If the Colts scored 55 points in this game, would you be surprised? Me neither. I'm very impressed with Indy's defense to this point in time. They sure look like a complete team, maybe the best in the AFC (sorry Pittsburgh and New England).
Straight up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Indianapolis
The Match-up: Tennessee (+6.5) @ St. Louis
The Skinny: Remember when these two teams played one of the best Super Bowls in recent memory? That was a great game. This one, most likely, will not be. St. Louis has historically been a great team at home on that turf.
Straight up: St. Louis
Against the Spread: St. Louis
The Match-up: Dallas (-6.5) @ San Francisco
The Skinny: Wasn't it fun watching the Cowboys fall asleep at the wheel last week and cough up a 13-point lead in the last 3:46 against Washington? To all you Dallas fans out there, that was Mark Brunell throwing the ball over your secondary's head. Just wanted to remind you of that.
Straight up: San Francisco
Against the Spread: San Francisco
The Match-up: Arizona (+6.5) @ Seattle
The Skinny: Always looking for new and exciting ways to lose football games, the Cardinals may have outdone themselves last week. With no time outs remaining, the Cards marched into field goal range, then Kurt Warner was sacked. Rather than spiking the ball and stopping the clock with about 20 seconds to go and perhaps kicking the tying field goal, Warner tried to call a play. The clock ran down to 7 seconds, and the Cards were flagged for a false start. The penalty carried a ten-second run-off, thus the game ended with Arizona on the short end of the score. Only the Cardinals.
Straight up: Seattle
Against the Spread: Seattle
The Match-up: New England (+3.0) @ Pittsburgh
The Skinny: I really wanted to take the Steelers, because I think they are a solid, solid football team. But then I started looking at the numbers and realized that even with last week's loss to Carolina, the Patriots are 35-5 over their last 40 games (including playoffs). Anyone recall the last time the Pats lost consecutive games? Exactly.
Straight up: New England
Against the Spread: New England
The Match-up: New York Giants (+5.5) @ San Diego
The Skinny: Eli Manning's first game in San Diego comes this Sunday, about 13 months later than Chargers fans thought when they drafted his first overall in 2004. The Giants have opened some eyes in the NFC, but it's the 0-2 Chargers who are in desperate need of a win. I do like San Diego to win at home, but I also like Eli and the Giants to keep it close throughout.
Straight up: San Diego
Against the Spread: New York Giants
The Match-up: Kansas City (+3.0) @ Denver
The Skinny: I'm having a hard time figuring the Broncos out this year. This week, I'll solicit a little help from the Vegas odds-makers. Denver, a team that was embarrassed in Miami in Week 1 and barely squeaked by San Diego a week ago is favored over 2-0 Kansas City? There has to be a reason for that.
Straight up: Denver
Against the Spread: Denver
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