The Week 1 Picks

One game into the season, and The Kid is still undefeated. Maybe I should resign now...nah. The Patriots outlasted Oakland on Thursday, and did so by 10 points, thus a win and a cover, and we're off and running. I'll try to keep the momentum going with the rest of the Week 1 picks.

The Match-up: Houston (+4.5) @ Buffalo
The Skinny: The Buffalo Bills have the good fortune of giving new quarterback J.P. Losman his first NFL start at home against the Houston Texans. This game features two of the game's most exciting young running backs, Houston's Domanick Davis and Buffalo's Willis McGahee. The difference in this one should be the Bills defense, which looks to pick up right where they left off at the end of the 2004 campaign. I like the Bills to open the J.P. Losman era with a win over Houston.
Straight Up: Buffalo
Against the Spread: Buffalo

The Match-up: Chicago (+6.0) @ Washington
The Skinny: The Redskins host the Bears in a game that features two teams with a similar profile - good defense, a lot to prove on offense. Both offenses should revolve around the running game, which leaves Washington and Clinton Portis an advantage. But the defenses should keep the game tight. The 'Skins will win it, but it will be closer than you'd think.
Straight Up: Washington
Against the Spread: Chicago

The Match-up: Cincinnati (-3.5) @ Cleveland
The Skinny: The first installment of the 2005 version of the "Battle of Ohio" goes down on Sunday. The Browns, who have not been able to rebuild since being reinvented a few years ago, but they may be on the right track by hiring defensive-minded Romeo Crennel as their head coach. The Bengals did something similar a few years ago with Marvin Lewis, and they've been respectable. Cleveland may get there, too, but they're not there yet.
Straight Up: Cincinnati
Against the Spread: Cincinnati

The Match-up: New Orleans (+7.0) @ Carolina
The Skinny: Will the New Orleans Saints, in the wake of the damage caused to their area by Hurricane Katrina, become the feel-good story of the 2005 season? Maybe, but not against a team as strong as the Carolina Panthers.
Straight Up: Carolina
Against the Spread: Carolina

The Match-up: Seattle (+3.0) @ Jacksonville
The Skinny: Jacksonville's new vertical passing game debuts at home against what looks to be an accomodating defense. Byron Leftwich should have all day to find his targets downfield, and when he can't, he'll be able to dump the ball of to Fred Taylor. The priority for Jacksonville's defense is a simple one - contain Shaun Alexander. Easier said than done, but if they can do that, they can win this game.
Straight Up: Jacksonville
Against the Spread: Jacksonville

The Match-up: New York Jets (+3.0) @ Kansas City
The Skinny: Some people are talking about the Jets as a dark horse pick to unseat the Patriots atop the AFC East, yet they're an underdog? Granted, they're on the road and Arrowhead Stadium is a tough place to play, but still. Personally, I don't see the Jets being a threat to New England. They should, however, beat Kansas City.
Straight Up: New York Jets
Against the Spread: New York Jets

The Match-up: Denver (-5.0) @ Miami
The Skinny: How dire is the quarterback situation in Miami? Well, Gus Frerotte is the starter, if that gives you any indication. On top of that, his back up is Sage Rosenfels. It could be another long year for the Fish. Jake Plummer and the Broncos will start the season off on the right foot.
Straight Up: Denver
Against the Spread: Denver

The Match-up: Tampa Bay (+6.0) @ Minnesota
The Skinny: Former division rivals hook up in the Metrodome on Sunday, and the Vikings have certainly garnered some attention from the national media, some picking them to go all the way. I do think Minnesota will be one of the best in the NFC. The Bucs, on the other hand, will not. "Culpepper to Burleson" is the new phrase that pays, and the Vikes open with a big win.
Straight Up: Minnesota
Against the Spread: Minnesota

The Match-up: Tennessee (+7.0) @ Pittsburgh
The Skinny: The Steelers finished 15-1 last season, but stumbled at the end, losing at home to the eventual-champion Patriots in the AFC title game. This season, Pittsburgh will be on a mission to finish the job, and that starts in Week 1 with former AFC power Tennessee. Injuries to Duce Staley and Jerome Bettis might be a factor against a New England or Indy, but shouldn't be against the Titans.
Straight Up: Pittsburgh
Against the Spread: Pittsburgh

The Match-up: St. Louis (-5.5) @ San Francisco
The Skinny: It's a new era in San Francisco, with new coach Mike Nolan and top draft pick Alex Smith set to debut on Sunday. The problem is, neither one of them will be on the field. St. Louis comes to town and looks strong behind QB Marc Bulger, WR's Isaac Bruce and Torry Holt, and RB Steven Jackson (who I think will have a big game). The Rams will win in a blowout.
Straight Up: St. Louis
Against the Spread: St. Louis

The Match-up: Green Bay (+3.0) @ Detroit
The Skinny: The first test for the new and improved Lions comes at home against the old and inferior Packers. The game plan to beat Detroit (as I see it, anyway) is to gang up on the run, shut down Kevin Jones, and make Joey Harrington beat you with his arm. Problem for Green Bay is they don't have the defense to execute the plan. Besides, Brett Favre seems to struggle in domes. All that said, I like the Lions to keep the Ford Field roof closed and knock off the Pack.
Straight Up: Detroit
Against the Spread: Detroit

The Match-up: Arizona (+2.5) @ New York Giants
The Skinny: Another line I don't really understand. I thought everybody was in love with the Cardinals, that they were going to win the West, and that Kurt Warner was resurrected and would lead Arizona to prominence. So how are they a dog at the mediocre-at-best Giants? I like New York in this one.
Straight Up: New York Giants
Against the Spread: New York Giants

The Match-up: Dallas (+4.5) @ San Diego
The Skinny: Pop quiz for all the new readers - how will Ant pick in this one? a) Dallas to win on the road; b) The Chargers to win by a field goal, so take the Cowboys and the points; c) San Diego, simply because they're playing Dallas. The correct answer, of course, is 'c.' If you guessed another answer, you've got problems.
Straight Up: San Diego
Against the Spread: San Diego

The Match-up: Indianapolis (-3.0) @ Baltimore
The Skinny: Perhaps the most intriguing match up of the weekend is a preview of my predicted AFC Championship game this year, with the Ravens hosting the Colts. This will be the best game of the weekend, in my estimation. and even though Indianapolis is my pick to win the AFC, something in my gut tells me that Baltimore will flat out win this game. Don't ask me why.
Straight Up: Baltimore
Against the Spread: Baltimore

The Match-up: Philadelphia (-1.5) @ Atlanta
The Skinny: In a rematch of the NFC Title game, the Eagles head to Atlanta to take on Ron Mexico and the Falcons. The good news for the Eagles is that apparently T.O. and Donovan McNabb have reconciled and have their sites set on the common goal of winning the Super Bowl. The bad news is that RB Brian Westbrook is the newest disgruntled Eagle, having broken off long-term contract talks. As always amidst the turmoil, the question is can they put the off-the-field b.s. aside and just win football games. Yes they can, and yes they will, starting with a Monday night victory over Atlanta.
Straight Up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia