2006 AFC Preview

The pre-season is just about over, and thus begins my team-by-team capsule of all 32 teams. We'll start with the AFC, follow that up with the NFC, then lead into the weekly picks with the annual predictions column including division, wild card, and conference winners, MVP, and my exclusive 2006-07 Super Bowl champion (here's a hint - they wear midnight green and silver and hail from Philadelphia).

Before we get started, just wanted to pass along a quick update on "Bonzi's Pecans." The draft yielded fantasy standouts Tom Brady, Edge James, B-West, Plaxico, and the Colts defense. It also produced a pretty thin crop of wide receivers and a guy who is already out for the year (Jacksonville's Greg Jones, who at the time had a sprained MCL and would be available for the season opener). BP opens with a battle against Trent Green, LaDanian Tomlinson and the rest of "Action Jackson" in Week 1.

Here is your 2006-07 AFC Preview.

AFC East

Buffalo Bills: A few short years ago, Buffalo looked like a team on the rise. They had Drew Bledsoe, Travis Henry, Eric Moulds, and Peerless Price on offense and an above-average defense. Now, they’re basically starting over – again. The Bills recycled 118 year-old Marv Levy as GM and brought in Lions cast-off Dick Jauron as head coach. J.P. Losman won the starting quarterback job, which doesn’t sound that difficult. Willis McGahee looks to rebound from a disappointing 2005 season. Linebacker Takeo Spikes anchors the D, and he’s among the best in the game. But there’s not much help around him, and the schedule features trips to Chicago, Indianapolis, and Baltimore in addition to two games each with Miami and New England. Looks like the re-building of the Bills is still a work in progress.
Fantasy Extra: Other than McGahee, Buffalo’s top fantasy option is WR Lee Evans, who has scored 16 touchdowns in his two NFL seasons.

Miami Dolphins: In Week 15 of last season, I tabbed the Dolphins a potential sleeper in 2006, saying that Miami was a consistent quarterback away from challenging the Patriots in the East. Enter Daunte Culpepper, apparently fully recovered from a devastating knee injury suffered last October. Not since Randy Moss has Culpepper had a receiver like Chris Chambers, who is poised to have a sensational season. Second year man Ronnie Brown has all the makings of a pro-bowl running back. Did I mention that their defense is pretty good, too? Jason Taylor and Zack Thomas headline the stoppers. Super Bowl XLI is in Miami this year. Will the Fins get to play in the ultimate home game in February? Stay tuned…
Fantasy Extra: Take your pick – Culpepper, Brown, Chambers, and TE Randy McMichael, and Miami’s defense are all solid fantasy options.

New England Patriots: The Patriots had aspirations of a third consecutive championship last year, but something happened on the path to a three-peat. New England looks primed again, but they are (at present, anyway) missing a key player in wide receiver Deion Branch. Branch is looking to get paid like an elite receiver. Problem is, he’s never had a 1,000-yard season and never grabbed more than five touchdowns. He’s Tom Brady’s go-to guy, and he needs to get back with the team. Other than that, it looks like business as usual for Bill Belichick’s crew. The Patriots’ strength is on the defensive side of the ball with Richard Seymour and Tedy Bruschi. Until Miami runs them down, the Patriots are the team to beat in the East.
Fantasy Extra: Don’t sleep on rookie RB Laurence Maroney, who I think will supplant Corey Dillon as a starter by Week 8.

New York Jets: This was looking like a lean year for Gang Green even before Curtis Martin landed on the Physically Unable to Perform list. They’ve got a new head coach in Eric Mangini (a.k.a. Bill Belichick Lite), who named Chad Pennington as his starter at quarterback. The Jets will go with youngsters D’Brickashaw Ferguson and Nick Mangold on the O-line. To fill the void left by Martin’s injury, the Jets pried Kevan Barlow out of San Francisco. Rumor around the way is that they are in the Deion Branch discussion. While that would be a nice add, it won’t make them a playoff contended. The Jets suffered a major loss on defense when John Abraham was traded to Atlanta, and adding Kimo von Oelhoffen from the Steelers isn’t exactly the help that tackling-machine linebacker Jonathan Vilma could use.
Fantasy Extra: I personally wouldn’t trust Pennington, Barlow, or WR Laveranues Coles, would you?

AFC North

Baltimore Ravens: It appears as though the Kyle Boller experiment has ended in Baltimore, as the Ravens upgraded the quarterback position, reuniting Steve McNair with last year’s big acquisition, receiver Derrick Mason. They also added Mike Anderson from Denver and bolstered the defensive line with end Trevor Pryce and tackle Haloti Ngata. Oh, and they still have Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, Terrell Suggs, and Samari Rolle. Yeah, I like the Ravens chances this year. So should coach Brian Billick, because if the Ravens come up short of the post-season, Billick could be standing on the government cheese line in the spring.
Fantasy Extra: Remember how much McNair connected with TE Frank Wycheck when he was with Tennessee? Imagine the potential for Todd Heap. I’m predicting numbers for him this season.

Cincinnati Bengals: Suddenly the hunted instead of the hunter, the Bengals look to defend their division title of a season ago. Carson Palmer appears to be ready to go, and there is no doubt that he is the key to Cincinnati’s success (or failure). He’s got a dynamic receiver duo in Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh, and a franchise-type running back in Rudi Johnson. But the Bengals defense finished the 2005 season ranked 28th, which only emphasizes the importance of Palmer. As he goes, so go the Bengals (as witnessed in the playoffs last year). The rest of the North is better than they were a year ago, and the out-of-division schedule is loaded as well (at Tampa, Indy and Denver, home against New England, Carolina, Atlanta, and San Diego). If the Bengals are going to repeat, they’re going to have to earn it.
Fantasy Extra: Excessive celebration rule or not, WR Chad Johnson is sensational. But the guy to watch is Houshmandzadeh, who should see single-coverage with 85 on the other side of the field. Palmer led the league in touchdown passes a year ago. Rudi Johnson is a straight-up stud.

Cleveland Browns: When I called the Browns a potential sleeper for this year, I was looking at the potential of young guys like Charlie Frye and Braylon Edwards, plus the probable return of Corporal “Evil Kellen-evil” Winslow. They helped their case with the veteran leadership of Willie McGinest, receiver Joe Jurevicius, and prized free agent center LeCharles Bentley. Then Bentley pulled up lame in mini-camp. Regardless, the Browns are pointed in the right direction. But the ascent out of the North basement will be a slow one.
Fantasy Extra: Frye showed flashes at the end of the year, but you never know with first-time starting quarterbacks. Prior to his injury, Edwards looked like a game-breaker.

Pittsburgh Steelers: What’s not to like about a defending Super Bowl champion that as almost everybody coming back? That doesn’t mean there are no questions surrounding the Steelers. For starters, who replaces Jerome Bettis as the hammer on the goal line? Can Willie Parker replicate his success of a year ago? How serious is Hines Ward’s hamstring injury? Will the Bill Cowher Retirement Watch become a distraction? None of these issues take away from the fact that Pittsburgh is among the NFL’s elite. I’d be shocked if the Steelers didn’t make another deep run into the playoffs this year.
Fantasy Extra: If Parker can avoid wearing down as he did last year, he’s a legitimate number one fantasy back, especially since, minus The Bus, he should get more chances to punch the ball into the end zone.

AFC South

Houston Texans: The Texans took a BIG risk by passing on Reggie Bush in favor of defensive end Mario Williams. Whether or not that gamble pays off remains to be seen. Houston was active in the off-season, adding receiver Eric Moulds and tight end Jeb Putzier to run new coach Gary Kubiak’s offense. But an offensive line that continually allows quarterback David Carr little or no time to throw the ball is the Achilles Heel. Most of their off-season adds were on the defensive side of the ball, but Kubiak is in the midst of a scheme change, moving to the 4-3. The uncertain status on running back Domanick Davis further complicates matters. I don’t see the Texans making a serious run at the post-season. At least, not yet.
Fantasy Extra: If Davis can’t go, either Verrand Morency or Wali Lundy will start at RB. WR Andre Johnson should benefit from Moulds’ presence. That is, if Carr can stay upright.

Indianapolis Colts: For years the experts have wondered if the Colts could finally break through and win a championship. The more things change, the more they stay the same. Indianapolis lost one of its all-pro triplets, with Edgerrin James bolting for Arizona. But the Colts remain deep and talented on offense and will play running back by committee with Dominic Rhodes and rookie Joseph Addai. The defense, long a question mark, is good enough to carry this team far. It seems the only disconnect is between Peyton Manning’s ears. He got a rep in college as a guy who couldn’t win the big one. That rep has followed him to the pros, and until he’s the last man standing, that rep will persist. So, is this the year?
Fantasy Extra: Manning and WR Marvin Harrison are both consistent fantasy performers. The RB situation is up in the air. Indy’s defense is a potential fantasy powerhouse.

Jacksonville Jaguars: One of the most underrated defenses resides in Jacksonville, where head coach Jack Del Rio has put together a fast, aggressive, nasty unit. Del Rio was the architect of the Carolina Panthers defense, and this team has a similar feel. It all starts up front with tackles Marcus Stroud and John Henderson. The Jags defense needs to be good, because their offense is average. There’s a mini-quarterback controversy brewing, as some feel David Garrard should be under center instead of Byron Leftwich. Whoever starts will have a compliment of receivers trying to replace the retired Jimmy Smith. There is some big play potential there with Matt Jones and Reggie Williams. Jacksonville has been close to being very special. They simply need a couple of breaks to take it to the next level.
Fantasy Extra: Fred Taylor has been healthy for a few years now. Does that mean he’s due for a hamstring or groin pull? Ernest Wilford led the team in touchdown catches with 7 last season.

Tennessee Titans: Quite a conundrum in Nashville. The Titans have three quarterbacks and no starter, a bunch of running backs who want out of town or can’t stop spitting on teammates, and a first-round draft pick from a year ago at corner who can’t stay out of the back of police cars. They ran Steve McNair out of town, and there’s pressure for Jeff Fisher to throw Vince Young into a starting role. Young is probably not ready, hence the Kerry Collins signing. Chris Brown was thought to be on the block, but he’s still the starting running back. Adam “Pac Man” Jones has to be labeled a bust to this point in time. The Titans are a mess.
Fantasy Extra: Um, who is their kicker now?

AFC West

Denver Broncos: It was all set up for the Broncos last year. The AFC title game was in their barn. The sixth seeded Steelers were the opponent. And that was the moment Jake Plummer reverted back to his old ways. No wonder Denver tabbed Vanderbilt’s Jay Cutler as their quarterback of the future. Mike Shanahan must believe everything he hears about himself and how good his running system is, thus undrafted rookie Mike Bell starts behind the Snake. Denver won the Javon Walker sweepstakes, and their defense remains largely in tact. Denver’s got high hopes of hosting another AFC championship game, only this time they’re hoping for a better outcome.
Fantasy Extra: Having never played an NFL down, Mike Bell is a question mark. Tatum Bell is not out of the picture yet, either. No word on whether or not the Broncos are interested in signing Raja Bell, Jorge Bell, or Taco Bell.

Kansas City Chiefs: Expectations are high in K.C., not just for the team but for running back Larry Johnson as well. I’ve got to admit, when Johnson came out, I figured him to be the next great Penn State running back bust (Blair Thomas, Ki-Jana Carter, Curtis Enis). But he’s lived up to the hype. New coach Herm Edwards loves to run the football, which would seem to be a perfect fit for Johnson. The line may not be as strong as a year ago without left tackle Willie Roaf, but LJ will still get his. Trent Green is kind of a forgotten man in Kansas City, but he may be the key to the Chiefs playoff chances. The other key factor is the defense, where former head coach and defensive coordinator Gunther Cunningham returns. Bottom Line? LJ is electric, but he alone can’t carry this team into the post-season.
Fantasy Extra: Don’t let anybody fool you into taking Reggie Bush ahead of LJ. Remmember Tony Gonzalez? He’s still there, and will be Green’s go-to guy in the air again.

Oakland Raiders: You thought the Titans had quarterback issues? I did a double-take when I read the bottom line that said Oakland had signed Jeff George. Seriously? Isn’t he, like, 50? I mean, nobody thought Aaron Brooks was the answer. But they’ve got Andrew Walter, who Randy Moss seems to like. Why not go with him? LaMont Jordan will be facing nine and ten-man fronts. Oakland’s defense is a disaster. Warren Sapp is on the downside of his career, and Derrick Burgess likely won’t lead the league in sacks again. I hope Brady Quinn looks good in black, because the Raiders have the inside track on the first pick next April.
Fantasy Extra: If Walter plays, I like Moss. If not, avoid this team like the plague.

San Diego Chargers: The Chargers turn over a new leaf (sorry, poor choice of words) as the Philip Rivers era gets underway. Lucky for Rivers, he’s got perhaps the best all-around running back in LaDanian Tomlinson behind him. He’s also got a top tight end in Antonio Gates. Another break for Rivers? The Chargers open with Oakland and Tennessee before their bye in Week 3, meaning he should be able to ease into his new job. San Diego returns defensive rookie of the year Shawne Merriman as the playmaker in a 3-4 that was tops against the run in 2005. The Chargers are thinking playoffs, and I might be, too.
Fantasy Extra: If you don’t like Tomlinson’s game, you’ve got issues. I really like Rivers as a second QB. Watch for him to build a rapport with WR Eric Parker, who could be a gem.