2005-06 NFC Preview

NFC East
Dallas Cowboys - Dallas followed up their surprising 10-6 record and run to the 2003 postseason with an equally surprising crash down to Earth, finishing 6-10 a year ago. Jerry Jones is giving Bill Parcells the power to play his system with his players. Accordingly, Parcells immediately switched the defense to the 3-4 scheme, and drafted for defensive speed. He also added QB Drew Bledsoe who is only slightly more mobile than the departed Vinny Testaverde (only Houston's David Carr has been sacked more often in the last two years than Bledsoe). There's only one real pass-catching threat, TE Jason Witten. Like most Parcells-teams, the focus on offense is on the running game, led by the promising RB Julius Jones. But this team will only go as far as the revamped defense will take them. And as much as it pains me to say this, the Cowboys will most likely find their way back into the playoffs this season.
Fantasy Focus - It's hard for me to speculate, since one of my rules for fantasy football is not to take anyone from the Cowboys (if you know me, you understand). For those of you impartial gamers, take Jones and Witten. Dallas' defense is also a safe play. If you draft Bledsoe, be sure to draft his concrete sneakers as well.

New York Giants - Year two of the Eli Manning Era in New York has not gotten off to a smooth start, as Manning injured his elbow in the second pre-season game, had an MRI (results negative) and hasn't played since. Whether or not he can go in the opener remains to be seen. The Giants did add some parts in the off-season, notably WR Plaxico Burress and LB Antonio Pierce. They also expect a healthy TE Jeremy Shockey to contribute as he did in his rookie campaign. RB Tiki Barber had the best season of his career in 2004, and he's primed for another big year. On defense, DE Osi Umenyiora will pick up where Michael Strahan leaves off, and Pierce is a tackling machine. But the Giants still have holes, notably along the offensive line and in the secondary. All told, the Giants may be better, but they still won't crack the playoff field for at least another year.
Fantasy Focus - Manning should only be taken in case if emergency. If his elbow is damaged, either Tim Hasselbeck or Jesse Palmer will start. That said, the Giants receivers are gambles. The best bet may be Shockey, who could serve as Manning's security blanket. Barber is versatile and should be among the top fantasy backs in the game.

Philadelphia Eagles - After finally breaking through the NFC Championship barrier and reaching the Super Bowl for the first time in 24 years, the Eagles seek to avoid the jinx of prior Super Bowl also-rans that took severe steps backwards following their loss in the big game. The birds had their share of unrest in the nest this off-season. To recap: DE Jerome McDougle was car-jacked and shot in Miami and will not be ready when the season opens; RB Correll Buckhalter and WR Todd Pinkston were lost for the season due to training camp injuries; RB Brian Westbrook held out of camp and is seeking a long-term deal (on par with those signed by New Orleans' Deuce McAllister and Houston's Domanick Davis); DT Corey Simon rebuked his "Franchise" tag, failed to sign his tender and was given his outright release. Oh, and the quarterback and his top wide receiver don't speak to one another (as you might have heard). Despite all the nonsense that has gone on, this is still the best team in the NFC when they line up on Sunday. McNabb and Owens don't need to talk to play like professionals (witness the first half of the Cincinnati game in week 3 of the pre-season, where McNabb threw for 256 yards and 3 TD's in the first half with 131 of those yards and a score courtesy of T.O.). The defense may be even better this year, featuring "The Freak," DE Jevon Kearse, stud MLB Jeremiah Trotter, and the best secondary in the NFL. If the Eagles can avoid letting off-field distractions disrupt their chemistry on the field, the Eagles can win the NFC again and reach their second consecutive Super Bowl.
Fantasy Focus - Finally having a deep threat on the outside led to McNabb having a career year (31 TD's, only 8 INT's). Expect big numbers from McNabb and Owens this year. Westbrook is not a between-the-tackles runner, but may be the Eagles' most dangerous weapon and is a threat to break a long TD every time he touches the ball. Don't sleep on WR Greg Lewis, elevated to #2 by Pinkston's injury. Lewis has great speed and hands. TE L.J. Smith is one of McNabb's primary red-zone targets. K David Akers is automatic.

Washington Redskins - I thought Joe Gibbs returning to the Redskins sideline was supposed to be the piece of the puzzle that returned the 'Skins to prominence. Maybe not. Gibbs went out and got RB Clinton Portis to be his featured back, which was a good move. But he also juggled QB's, then had to deal with injuries along the O-Line. Needless to say, the offense did not fare well. It's a shame, because their defense was among the league's best. For this year, the Redskins acquired smaller, faster WR's in Santana Moss and David Patten. The line is healthy, and they still have Portis and a great defense. They also still have the same lingering question at QB. They did draft Auburn's Jason campbell in the first round, but Gibbs is going to go with Patrick Ramsey. If he can't get the job done, neither will the Redskins.
Fantasy Focus - Portis should benefit from a healthy line, but unless he has a great season, he'll continue to be tagged as a guy that was the product of Denver's system. Other than Portis, cansider H-back/TE Chris Cooley, who always seems to be a factor around the goal line. Washington's defense is a great pick.

NFC North
Chicago Bears - For the second straight season, the Bears will have to deal with an injury to starting QB Rex Grossman. Grossman broke his ankle in the pre-season, a year after blowing his knee. This year, instead of starting guys like Jonathan Quinn, Chad Hutchinson, and Craig Krenzel (who combined for 8 TD's and 12 INT's), rookie Kyle Orton will be under center. The Bears drafted RB Cedric Benson 4th overall and signed free-agent WR Muhsin Muhammad, but it will really all come down to Orton and the defense (which is actually pretty good). If Orton can take care of the football and minimize his mistakes (loosely translated, hand the ball to RB Thomas Jones), the Bears could open some eyes. But I wouldn't bet the farm on it.
Fantasy Focus - Slim pickings off the Bears roster in terms of fantasy players. Jones had decent numbers last year, and thanks to Benson's holdout will be the man again this year. Muhammad was in a contract year last year and likely will not duplicate his '04 numbers. I'd only take Orton if guys like J.P. Losman and Eli Manning were off the board.

Detroit Lions - The Lions became the first team in NFL history to draft a wide receiver in the top 10 of three consecutive drafts. If Charles Rogers can stay healthy, if Roy Williams plays an entire season the way he played the first half of 2004, and if Mike Williams can shake off the rust of not having played a meaningful game in well over a year, the Lions can trot three good young pass catchers out there. Think this is a make-or-break year for Joey Harrington? Hell, Kyle Boller thinks its now or never for Harrington, who also has a yound stud in the backfield in RB Kevin Jones. Jeff Garcia's broken leg complicates matters in case Harrington struggles, but a lot of people think this young offense can carry Detroit to the playoffs. I do not happen to be one of those people, but that's just me.
Fantasy Focus - Of the WR's, Roy Williams may be the safest pick. Rogers has had two major injuries in two years, and Mike Williams (who will be sensational someday), is coming off the long layoff. Jones had a great second half and was an injury away from being the Rookie of the Year last year (as some guy predicted he would be). Harrington could have huge numbers, or he could flame out like a bottle rocket. Proceed with caution. K Jason Hanson, entering his 14th year with the Lions, is still among the game's best.

Green Bay Packers - Stop me if you've heard this before - Green Bay's offense featuring big names like QB Brett Favre, RB Ahman Green, and WR Javon Walker is very, very good, but their defense is their downfall. It's been the same old story for the last few years in Green Bay, and again they didn't do anything to improve the D. They let S Darren Sharper, aging but still an emotional leader, go to division-rival Minnesota via free agency. Their starting corners are Joey Thomas (who?) and Al "P.I." Harris, and their going with a rookie (Nick Collins) at safety. They also lost starting guards Marco Rivera and Mike Wahle and will play behind a rebuilt O-Line. In a division with the Bears and Lions, the Packers were usually a guarantee to finish first or second in the North. This year, their defense could land them in the cellar.
Fantasy Focus - Ahman Green did not have a typical Ahman Green season in 2004, and looks to boucne back. Favre, on the other hand, had a great year (4,088 yds, 30 TD's). Can he do it again? Walker is playing for a big contract next year, which should mean big numbers again. If you even contemplate taking the Packers defense, you'd better borrow Onterrio Smith's Whizzinator so you pass your next random drug test.

Minnesota Vikings - Minnesota is a chic pick to win the NFC this year, and I cetainly understand why. They did unload talented WR Randy Moss, but that may be addition by subtraction. They drafted a speed burner (Troy Williamson) as his replacement, and still have emerging young star Nate Burleson on the outside. If not for Peyton Manning having the year he did, Daunte Culpepper would have been the MVP last year (again, as predicted by some guy). Michael Bennett his finally healthy, as are Culpepper-favorites TE's Jim Kleinsasser and Jermaine Wiggins. Unlike their division-rivals from Green Bay, the Vikes addressed their defensive holes by adding run-stuffing DT Pat Williams, LB's Sam Cowart and Napolean Harris, shut-down CB Fred Smoot and S Darren Sharper. They also drafted DE Erasmus James, who has the Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila potential. The Vikings are a good pick to de-throne the Eagles in the NFC this year.
Fantasy Focus - Culpepper's numbers (4,717 yards, 39 TD's) were outstanding, and he didn't have a healthy Moss for the whole season (which would explain why the Vikings felt he was expendable). Last year's leading rusher, RB Onterrio Smith, was suspended for the year, meaning Bennett will have to carry the load. Minnesota's defense is much improved and would be a solid play week in and week out.

NFC South
Atlanta Falcons - Jim Mora Jr. coached the Falcons all the way to the NFC Championship game last year, and as such expectations are for this team to take the next step this year. QB Michael Vick (to be referred to hereafter as "Ron Mexico") may not be the best QB in the league, but he is the best athlete. Mexico's running ability, plus that of RB's Warrick Dunn and T.J. Duckett, give the Falcons a great ground game. Their defense was good in 2004 and looks better in 2005 thanks to the addition of LB Ed Hartwell, formerly of the Ravens. The air attack was Atlanta's downfall in the championship game, and Mexico will have to be a better thrower if the Falcons are going to advance to the Super Bowl.
Fantasy Focus - Lots to choose from at this fantasy buffet - Mexico accounted for 3,215 yards (902 rushing) and 17 total TD's in '04, Dunn ran for over 1,000 yards for the third time in his career (and added close to 300 yards receiving), and Duckett averaged 4.9 yards per carry and pounded 8 TD's. The best Falcons fantasy picks may be TE Alge Crumpler (774 yards, 6 TD's) and the improved defense.

Carolina Panthers - The 2005 Panthers win this year's "Dennis Rodman, Charles Barkley" award. Why? Because they're going to rebound from last year's injury-plagued 7-9 campaign in a big way. What befell the 2004 Panthers may have only made them more resilient for the 2005 season. Jake Delhomme proved he is no flash in the pan, as he carried this team at times last year when RB's Stephen Davis and DeShaun Foster were lost to injury. Also lost was top WR Steve Smith, who broke his leg in the '04 season opener. The Panthers' stellar defensive line had to deal an injury to DT Kris Jenkins. Lost in Carolina's 7-9 record is the fact that they started 1-7. Captain Math tells us that they finished 6-2 and were still in the playoff hunt right up to the end. There is reason for optimism this year despite the loss of WR Muhsin Muhammad. Davis, Foster, Smith and Jenkins are all back. The Panthers drafted LB/S hybrid Thomas Davis out of Georgia, who could be the defensive rookie of the year. And, they added WR Rod Gardner, a tall receiver to complement the speed of Smith and the youngster Keary Colbert, who saw a fair amount of playing time as a rookie. Carolina is one of the best teams in the entire league.
Fantasy Focus - Delhomme's 2004 numbers (3,889 yds, 29 TD's) were a by-product of the fact that Davis and Foster were both out. The offense should have better balance in 2005, thus Delhomme's numbers figure to decline. Foster is a home-run threat, but he's often injured. Davis is the horse, but is he 100%? Smith looks as fast as ever, but Gardner and Colbert are good red-zone targets. Don't forget about old faithful, K Jon Kasay. Carolina's defense is among the best in the NFC.

New Orleans Saints - The Saints are an enigma, personified by their QB Aaron Brooks. The rap on both is very similar - lots of talent, underachieved to this point in time, need to live up to potential. Brooks was an anonymous member of the famed QB Class of 1999 (featuring Tim Couch, Donovan McNabb, Akili Smith, Daunte Culpepper, and Cade McNown). Brooks has started 69 straight games for the Saints, threw for over 3,800 yards and 21 TD's in 2004, and he's clutch (did you know Brooks engineered five 4th quarter or overtime game-winning drives in 2004? Me neither). There's a lot talent around Brooks (RB Deuce McAllister, WR's Joe Horn and Donte' Stallworth), yet New Orleans has only made it to the post-season once during his tenure. They've drafted heavily for defense over the last few years, but they'll need results on the field or the talent on offense will again go to waist. As if they didn't have enough to deal with, the Saints will play their home games in San Antonio, Baton Rouge or Birmingham, after the Superdome was damaged during Hurricane Katrina.
Fantasy Focus - In his four full seasons as a starter, Brooks has never thrown for less than 3,500 yds and 21 TD's. Bank on those kind of stats again. McAllister had a down year in '04 but signed a big deal in the off-season. Horn established career-highs in yards and TD's last season, so there's likely only one way to go from there. New Orleans' defense is better, but still average overall.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers - The once-mighty Bucs have crashed hard after winning Super Bowl XXXVII, going a combined 12-20 in the two seasons since. While there is still some talent on defense (namely DE Simeon Rice, LB Derrick Brooks, and CB Ronde Barber), Jon Gruden's offense has undergone some major changes, and Chucky will rely on a young corps to carry them. Veteran Brian Griese will start at QB, but that may be short-lived as Chris Simms appears poised to unseat him. Rookie RB Carnell "Cadillac" Williams is atop the depth chart at running back. And, second year man WR Michael Clayton looks to build on his promising rookie campaign. Other than the aforementioned, the Bucs offense is old. Joey Galloway, Ike Hilliard, Mike Alstott. I've seen younger faces on cash. The Bucs will have a tough go of things in the top-heavy NFC South, and will extend their playoff drought to three years and running.
Fantasy Focus - As noted earlier when speaking of Williams' college teammate Ronnie Brown, rookie RB's are always a gamble, so tread lightly with "Cadillac." Ditto Brian Griese, who is a drunken stupor and a hilly driveway away from backing up Simms. The new defensive line (featuring Minnesota cast-off Chris Hovan and a healthy Anthony McFarland) is solid, but they don't have that aura of invincibility they used to.

NFC West
Arizona Cardinals - Everybody seems to think that the Arizona Cardinals will win the NFC West this season. Granted, they will be better, but I think Cardinals myopians think they signed Kurt Warner 1999-2001 and not Kurt Warner 2002-2004. Wanrer is surrounded by young talent in rookie RB J.J. Arrington and stud WR's Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald. In addition, the defense is better than you think featuring guys like DE Bert Berry (14.5 sacks in 2004), LB Karlos Dansby (60 tackles, 5 sacks), and rookie CB Antrel Rolle. But the reality is that Warner has thrown 10 TD's over the last three seasons. And I don't care how good your defense is, if your quarterback averages 3 TD's per season, you're going to lose more than you win.
Fantasy Focus - Arrington will start as a rookie, and may be the focus on offense if and when Warner struggles. Boldin and Fitzgerald have the ability to take over a game. As stated, the Cards' defense will be better than average, and will rack up some fantasy stats.

St. Louis Rams - Now, the team that should be touted as the favorite in the West (at least in my estimation), is the St. Louis Rams. Warner's successor in St. Louis, Marc Bulger, has had decent numbers and led the Rams to the playoffs in each of the last two seasons. And with guys like Marshall Faulk, Steven Jackson, Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce behind him, its easy to see why. The Rams, even in their glory years, were an offensive-minded team that tried to out-score their opponents, and it worked for a stretch. But the Rams defense is suspect, and if they can't get pressure on the quarterback via DT Jimmy Kennedy and DE Leonard "DUI" Little, their secondary can (and most liekly will) be exposed as the team's weak spot. For some reason, I still think the Rams should win the West.
Fantasy Focus - Jackson will start at RB this year, and he looked great in the pre-season. Everybody talks about T.O., Randy Moss, and Marvin Harrison being the best WR in the NFL. While one of them may be the best, "Big Game" Holt is easily the the most consistent (5 straight 1,300+ yard seasons). Bulger's interception total dropped from 22 in 2003 to 14 in 2004, and if he continues to improve in that regard, he'll be a top-10 fantasy QB. The defense will give up too many points than a fantsy owner would like. K Jeff Wilkins is among the most accurate in the league.

San Francisco 49ers - The rebuilding continues for the 49ers, with many new faces in key places. New Head Coach Mike Nolan brings a Super Bowl ring from his days on the Ravens coaching staff. The Niners drafted Utah's Alex Smith first overall in the April draft, and they expect him to play a lot this year. Also new is the 3-4 defensive scheme, which should open up the field for talented DE/LB Julian Peterson to become a big playmaker. But despite the changes, San Francisco is still a long, long way from home in terms of returning to the promience of 49ers teams of old.
Fantasy Focus - At present, Tim Rattay is listed as the starting quarterback, but don't expect him to play the full season. RB Kevan Barlow and TE Eric Johnson are probably the two biggest contributors on offense, although WR Arnaz Battle has blazing speed and could factor into scoring on punt and kick returns as well as on offense. As mentioned, aside from Peterson, the defense lacks impact players.

Seattle Seahawks - I wonder why not many people were giving the Seahawks a chance to defend their division title. After all, RB Shaun Alexander is back (for this season, anyway), and he's one of the best in the business. QB Matt Hasselbeck has established himself after a couple of solid years, and his top target, WR Darrell Jackson returns as well. Maybe it has something to do with the defense, which is very young at LB and in the secondary. Maybe its because their other starting WR, Koren Robinson, was suspended for the year and subsequently checked himself into rehab. I can't put a finger on it, but I don't get a good vibe coming out of Seattle this year either. They may prove me completely wrong, but then I won't be the only one.
Fantasy Focus - Alexander is a flat-out, top-shelf fantasy back (he's rushed for 60 TD's over the last 4 seasons), and this may be his best year ever, as he's playing for a long-term deal next year. Whether that will be in Seattle or someplace else remains to be seen. Hasselbeck should get the chance to throw a lot, since the 'Hawks look to be playing a lot of catch up. Jackson had a bad case of the dropsies a year ago, but is still a perenial 1,000 yard receiver.