2005-06 AFC Preview

This is the first of a three-part 2005-06 season preview. Below are team capsules for the 16 AFC teams (including a fantasy focus section). Part two will be the NFC preview, and part three will be predictions of division, conference, and Super Bowl winners as well as individual award winners. It all leads into the not exactly world famous "Expert" NFL picks, starting with the Raiders and Patriots on September 8th.

AFC East
Buffalo Bills - One of the more surprising teams in the AFC last season, the Bills look to make their mark by contending for the playoffs this year behind QB J.P. Losman. The Bills cut ties with last year's starter, Drew Bledsoe, handing the reigns to Losman, the former first round pick out of Tulane. There are weapons around him on offense, including RB Willis McGahee and WR's Eric Moulds and Lee Evans. Buffalo's defense will miss run-stuffing DT Pat Williams, but should still be among one of the league's top units. In fact, their biggest nemesis may be their schedule, as Buffalo faces potentially dangerous opponents Atlanta, Kansas City, Carolina, and Denver at home and Oakland and San Diego on the road. Plus, division foes New England and the New York Jets will provide stern tests for the young Bills. If Buffalo is going to be in the playoffs, they're going to have to earn it.
Fantasy Focus - McGahee is poised for a breakout year, but teams will key on him until Losman proves he can beat them with his arm. Moulds is getting on in years, but Evans is a speed burner who knows how to find the end zone. Buffalo's defense and special teams should score well again.

Miami Dolphins - Lots of changes to talk about with last year's AFC East doormat. Nick Saban is in as head coach, and he's named Gus Frerotte his starting QB. The Dolphins drafted RB Ronnie Brown second overall, and the running game could get a boost from a an old familiar face, Ricky Williams, who will miss the first four weeks of the season due to a drug suspension (shocking, isn't it?). What will the rest of the offense bring to the table? Their receivers aren't all bad, with Chris Chambers and a finally healthy David Boston. And, TE Randy McMichael may be Frerotte's go-to guy if he can stop beating his wife and stay on the field. Defensive mainstays Jason Taylor and Zach Thomas are back, but could wear down if forced to play 35-40 minutes a game. The Fish will be better than last year (which isn't really saying much), but they're still not playoff material.
Fantasy Focus - It's hard to put a lot of credence into rookie RB's so I'd avoid Brown like the plague. Chambers and McMichael may be decent, but do you trust Gus Frerotte to get them the ball? Me neither. If you draft their defense, you may be trading them or waiving them by week 8. That leaves, ummm...Olindo Mare?

New England Patriots - For the first time in recent memory, there are a lot of unanswered questions surrounding the two-time defending world champions. How will the Pats fare without offensive coordinator Charlie Weis and defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel? Who will pick up the slack for Tedy Bruschi and Ty Law? Has the rest of the AFC started to catch up? All of these issues need to be addressed if the Patriots are going to become the first three-peat Super Bowl champions. The good news for New England is that they still have Bill Belichick, QB Tom Brady, RB Corey Dillon, and WR Deion Branch. And, if there's a team in the league that can roll with the punches, interchange players and move on without missing a beat, it's New England. There's a reason no team has ever won three consecutive Super Bowls, so I don't see them winning it all this year. But they're still top dog until someone knocks them off.
Fantasy Focus - The Patriots are one of the best teams in the league, so accordingly their individual players are not stellar fantasy picks. Dillon had a sensational year in 2004, but the way Brady spreads the ball around, none of New England's receivers is a "go-to" guy. Their defense is money, as is K Adam Vinatieri. TE Daniel Graham caught a bunch of TD's last year, but his touches will be down if Ben Watson emerges as more of a red-zone threat.

New York Jets - The Jets were one of my two sleeper teams last year, and they made me look smart (which isn't an easy thing to do) by going to the playoffs and actually winning a wild card game in San Diego before choking one away in Pittsburgh. Needless to say, K Doug Brien is gone. In fact, the Jets drafted Mike Nugent out of THE Ohio State University in the 2nd round, the highest a kicker has been drafted since the Raiders picked Sebastian "GHB" Janikowski in the 1st round of the 2000 draft. QB Chad Pennington appears fully recovered from off-season shoulder surgery, and he'll be happy to find his old buddy Laveranues Coles back in green and white. RB Curtis Martin was the oldest rushing champion in league history, edging Seattle's Shaun Alexander by one yard. But the Jets suffered a huge loss on defense when DT Jason Ferguson jumped ship. DE John Abraham's hold out also complicates matters. The Jets probably took a small step backwards, and that may cost them a shot at the post-season.
Fantasy Focus - Martin is consistent, but he caught lightning in a bottle last year. No way he has that good a year again this year. Still, he's a solid pick, as are Pennington, Coles, and WR Justin McCairens. Looking for a good late-round receiver? Watch out for Jericho Cotchery, who has looked outstanding in the pre-season and could have an impact this year. I wouldn't touch the Jets defense with a ten-foot pole.

AFC North
Baltimore Ravens - I love what the Ravens did this off-season. They added CB Samari Rolle to an already-stout defense which, oh by the way, still features the reigning defensive player of the year (S Ed Reed) and one of the best LB's in the league in Ray Lewis. Then, they addressed their lack of a passing game on offense by signing free agent WR Derrick Mason and drafting rookie Mark Clayton out of Oklahoma in the first round. Jamal Lewis' ankle injury (and legal problems) are in the past, and if Kyle Boller can finally make the leap, Baltimore will factor heavily in the AFC playoff picture, and may be the last team standing when the dust settles.
Fantasy Focus - A healthy Jamal Lewis would benefit from Kyle Boller making plays, which he has no excuses not to anymore. Mason is a terrific receiver, and Clayton will see the field a lot as a rook. And if there's a better defense in the league than the Ravens, I haven't seen it.

Cincinnati Bengals - After consecutive 8-8 campaigns, many are expecting this to be the year the Bengals break through and return to the playoffs. And why not? They've got a good young QB in Carson Palmer, an underrated RB Rudi Johnson, and an above-average receiving corps featuring Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh (gesundheit). But if the Bengals are going to succeed, their defense is going to have to step it up a notch, led by LB Brian Simmons. Cincinnati will benefit from two games against Cleveland, but the rest of their division schedule is tough. The rest of the schedule is light, save for home dates with Minnesota and Indianapolis. Looks like another ho-hum 8-8 year for the Bengals. Will that be acceptable?
Fantasy Focus - When drafting Bengals for your fantasy squad, remember this - Johnson & Johnson. No, not baby powder, shampoo, and Tylenol. I mean Rudi and Chad. Both are studs as evidenced by their 2004 numbers (Rudi: 1,454 yards, 12 TD's; Chad: 1,274 yards, 9 TD's). Other than that, Houshmandzadeh and K Shayne Graham are your best bets.

Cleveland Browns - Those guys in the dawg pund may want to trade in their rubber dog masks for brown paper bags, because the Browns look dreadful this year. At least on paper. Former Super Bowl champion (no kidding) Trent Difler is atop the depth chart at QB, and their starting wideouts are Andre Davis and Dennis Northcutt. Yikes. The Browns' best options all play the same position, and RB's Lee Suggs, Reuben Droughns, and William Green can't all be on the field at the same time, unless you count special teams. The Browns will also be without TE "Evil Kellen-evil" Winslow, who pulled a Jeff Kent and crashed his motorcycle and is gone for the year. The Browns are switching to a 3-4 defense, but will it matter? Should be a long first season for new head coach Romeo Crennel.
Fantasy Focus - There are no real slam dunks on this team. The RB's will all share touches, so it's tough to pick the #1 guy there. Go ahead and draft Dilfer. I dare you.

Pittsburgh Steelers - Stop me if you've heard this before, but the Steelers are loaded. I know they're a little banged up at RB right now, but expect a healthy Duce Staley and/or Jerome Bettis to give the offense some balance. QB Ben Roethlisberger was 13-0 as a starter in the regular season, though he struggled towards the end and played poorly in the AFC title game. Can he avoid the mythical sophomore jinx? WR Hines Ward put his contract squabbles to bed and came into camp, and should have another big season. And in case you haven't noticed, Pittsburgh's defense is pretty good. OK, that's a lie. Theyr'e very, very good. They will be challenged by the Ravens, but the AFC North is still Pittsburgh's division to win.
Fantasy Focus - Take Pittsburgh's defense - early. As for the rest of the Steelers, they're solid but not spectacular (with the exception of Ward). This is a defense-first football team who likely won't put up Madden-like numbers on offense. Bettis will start early, but when Staley is back, he should be the man. If you draft one, plan on him being a part-time starter. Another fantasy sleeper may be rookie TE Heath Miller, who has great hands and will be one of Big Ben's best red-zone optiions.

AFC South
Houston Texans - The Texans enter their third year of existence, and the young franchise has young talent at the skill positions in QB David Carr, RB Domanick Davis, and WR Andre Johnson. They plucked TE Mark Bruener off the Steelers' roster, and added Victor Riley to the O-Line. Houston's most significant addition was on the defensive side of the ball - CB Philip Buchanon, who will partner with 2nd year man Dunta Robinson as a formidable duo. And in a divison with Indianapolis and Jacksonville, you can never have too many good corners. The rest of the defense is above average, but again, with high-powered offenses in their own division, there will be some games that have the potential to get out of hand. No doubt the young Texans are on the rise, but they've still got a little ways to go.
Fantasy Focus - All of Houston's skill position players are good fantasy picks because they all put up numbers. Carr and Johnson are solid, but the best of the bunch by far is Davis, who may be one of the top 5 fantasy RB's in the league (14 total TD's in 2004). K Kris Brown is another good pick. Let the buyer beware the Texans defense. There are planty of better options around the league.

Indianapolis Colts - Let's see, when you think of the Indianapolis Colts, you immediately think of, I don't know, defense and special teams? Well if you're a Colts fan, that's all you should be thinking about. Because their offense has been among the NFL's best the last couple of years, and they still haven't cashed one in to a Super Bowl appearance. The Colts have made a conscious effort to bolster their defense in recent years, adding hard-hitting S Bob Sanders in the '05 draft to go with a decent crop of linebackers and budding superstar DE Dwight Freeney. For all his accolades, Peyton Manning just can't seem to beat the Patriots. They might as well have "Gators" written on their helmets. Many people think the Colts are the team to beat in the AFC and the NFL this year. I'm not saying I disagree, even though there are enough reasons to doubt them.
Fantasy Focus - Take your pick of these weapons: Manning, RB Edgerrin James (2,031 total yards and 9 TD's a year ago), WR's Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne, and Brandon Stokely (all of which had 10+ TD's last year). And just for good measure, TE Dallas Clark added 5 TD's. K Mike Vanderjagt racked up a ton of extra points and is still among the most accurate FG kickers. Indy's defense is a good pick because they record a lot of sacks and turnovers, which equal fantasy points.

Jacksonville Jaguars - My other sleeper team from '04, the Jaguars, were thisclose to making the playoffs, alas they fell just short. This year, the Jags offense is going to more of a vertical passing game, which suits QB Byron Leftwich nicely. He played in a similar system at Marshall and thrived, and he's got great pass-catchers in Jimmy Smith, Reggie Williams, and converted QB Matt Jones, who is an absolute freak of nature. And I think we can take the "injury-prone" label off of RB Fred Taylor now, as he hasn't sustained a serious injury in a couple of years (and yes, I just jinxed him). Jacksonville's fast, aggresive defense was one of the biggest surprises a year ago, and should be just as good if not better. It's a shame that Jacksonville plays in the loaded AFC, becauase they could go 10-6 and still miss the playoffs.
Fantasy Focus - Let the buyer beware Fred Taylor, not because of injuries but because his TD total from last year (2) indicates that Jacksonville will go to a big back (LaBrandon Toefield) in goal-line situations, and throw it around with height at the WR position. Leftwich is a decent pick, but he may throw a bunch of INT's thanks to the new vertical passing game. The Jags' defense was among the league leaders in points allowed, and they are capable of making the big sack or turnover.

Tennessee Titans - Still trying to dig out from the salary cap hell they created, the Titans welcome back former league MVP QB Steve McNair (remember him?), and have also added Buffalo cast-off RB Travis Henry. The problem for the Titans will be on the defensive side of the ball, especially since they lost CB Samari Rolle to free agency, then wasted a first round pick Adam "Pac Man" Jones, who was a holdout and is currently the 6th corner on Tennessee's depth chart (a little sidebar on Jones - ESPN draft guru Mel Kiper Jr. had him as the top CB in the draft last year, ahead of guys like Antrel Rolle, Carlos Rogers, and Marlon Jackson. Huh? Rolle may start in Arizona this year, and Rogers and Jackson will not only play but contribute, while Jones is SIXTH on the Titans depth chart? I should have Mel Kiper's job. But I digress). Anyway, I wouldn't expect a whole lot from the Titans this year.
Fantasy Focus - Well, McNair was great once when he had guys like Eddie George, Derrick Mason, and Frank Wycheck around him. Whether or not he can regain his former MVP form remains to be seen. Henry will share carries with last year's starter, Chris Brown. Drew Bennett is a decent receiver who had an outstanding second half lst year, but again, he's a bit of a gamble.

AFC West
Denver Broncos - If I was a fan of the Denver Broncos, my motto for the 2005-06 season would be "Avoid the Colts at all Costs." The Colts have ejected the Broncos from the last two post-seasons by a combined score of 90-34. The Broncos are back with the usual suspects, namely QB Jake Plummer, RB's Mike Anderson and Tatum Bell, and WR's Rod Smith and Ashley Lelie. They did lose Reuben Droughns, who was the latest in a line of many Bronco running backs to benefit from their offensive system, but they can offset that loss because of depth (and the fact that the next 1,000 rusher is probably a sixth round pick away, and it's not Maurice Clarett). Denver's biggest changes are on the defensive side of the ball, where Mike Shanahan must have been sipping Brown kool-aid, because he added former Cleveland D-Limeman Courtney Brown and Ebenezer Ekuban. Why? I'm not entirely sure. The Broncos are consistent if nothing else, and would be a good dark-horse candidate to win the AFC West.
Fantasy Focus - If not for all of the interceptions, Plummer would be one of the best fantasy players in the league. As it is, he still puts up decent enough numbers. It's hard to say whether Anderson or Bell is atop the running back depth chart, though it appears as though Anderson has the edge. Still a risky fantasy play. As is Rod Smith, who is around 65 years old. Lelie is a great deep threat. You may want to stay clear of Jerry Rice (yes, that Jerry Rice).

Kansas City Chiefs - Some guy (OK, it was me) thought the Chiefs could win the AFC last year with a dynamic offense making up for the lack of a dominating defense. That's my bad. But Kansas City did address a few defensive deficiencies by adding CB Patrick Surtain from the Dolphins and drafting LB Derrick Johnson out of Texas in the 1st round. But their bread and butter is still on the offensive side of the ball. And with Priest Holmes in the backfield, why wouldn't it be? Holmes missed the second half of the '04 season, but still had 14 TD's. Would a healthy Holmes have made a difference? Only if he could play defense. The bottom line is the Chiefs will be better, but they still will not contend for the AFC crown.
Fantasy Focus - Despite injury concerns, Holmes is still worthy of #1 pick status. His back up, Larry Johnson, will also get some carries. QB Trent Green and TE Tony Gonzalez are among the best fantasy players at their respective positions. I know they'll be better, but I still wouldn't hang my hat on Kansas City's defense.

Oakland Raiders -This year's "Chuck D, Flava Flav, Public Enemy" award goes to the Oakland Raiders. Why? Because I don't believe the hype. I know they added WR Randy Moss via trade, and they made a big splash by signing free agent RB Lamont Jordan as their workhorse. That can only help QB Kerry Collins, who has a strong arm but isn't deadly accurate. Moss can go up and get the ball, which will make Collins look better (as will a healthy Jerry Porter). But have you seen the Raiders defense? Oakland should score a ton of points, but if they can't stop anyone, they're simply the 2004 Chiefs, and we saw how they fared.
Fantasy Focus - These guys are a fantasy owner's dream. Moss is an absolute stud, and Collins will put up points. Jordan has never been a #1 back, so he's a bit of a gamble. He's got the size and speed to be among the game's elite. He could also fall flat on his face. Time will tell. Porter should see single-coverage early with Moss across the field.

San Diego Chargers - The surprise winner of the AFC West in 2004, the Chargers look to be primed for another strong season. And with San Diego, it all starts with RB LaDanian Tomlinson, who is perhaps the best RB in the NFL right now. Tomlinson set a personal goal of 2,200 rushing yards (not just in the two games against the Raiders, but for the season). QB Drew Brees, thought to be on the way out when the Chargers acquired Philip Rivers at #4 overall a year ago, was the comeback player of the year and earned himself another year under center in San Diego. The Chargers defense is good, but not great. It wouldn't surprise me if the Chargers made it to the post season. It would be a shock, however, if Marty Schottenheimer actually won a playoff game. Safe to say the only way Marty is in Detroit on Feb. 5, 2006 is if he buys a ticket from Mike Tice.
Fantasy Focus - If Tomlinson isn't #1 on your draft board, you may want to seek a refund on your entry fee. Brees is a little risky, as he could revert to 2003 Drew Brees. TE Antonio Gates caught 13 TD's last year, but held out and will miss at least the season-opener against Dallas. The Chargers defense won't wow you, but they won't kill you either.