The extra week between the conference championship games and the Super Bowl provides the media with plenty of time to hype up basically everything except the game itself. I’ve read all about the city of Miami, South Beach, Super Bowl rings, Peyton Manning and the gorilla on his back, Rex Grossman and his 20 interceptions, oh, and the fact that Chicago’s Lovie Smith and Indianapolis’ Tony Dungy and the first two black coaches in Super Bowl history. I’m not saying these things are insignificant, but in truth they have no impact on the game.
Now that we’re T-minus 52 hours to kickoff, the game is becoming more and more in focus. So far, the overwhelming majority seems to be on board with the Colts. In fact, I haven’t heard anyone pick the Bears to win this game. I could actually make an argument for either team. But I can only pick one winner, and I’ll do so shortly.
There have been some NFL developments that have nothing to do with the Bears and Colts. For starters, Brett Favre announced today that he will return to Green Bay for his 17th NFL season. Looking at the Packers situation, I think this is a good thing. They improved from 4-12 in 2005 to 8-8 in 2006 and ended the year on a four-game winning streak. Favre showed he still has plenty of gas in the tank, and the Packers don’t have another NFL-caliber quarterback on the roster. I don’t have a problem with him returning.
The coaching scene has finally taken shape, except in Dallas where Jerry Jones is still deciding between 49ers Offensive Coordinator Norv Turner, San Francisco Assistant Head Coach Mike Singletary, and Bears Defensive Coordinator Ron Rivera. There’s also still a chance that Jones will come down from the front office and coach the team himself (as he did in 1995 and 1996 during the Barry Switzer administration). I, personally, hope it’s Turner, whose track record as a head coach is not exactly stellar, and because he’s already hinted that he thinks TOFU’s money could be better spent. I agree with that sentiment, by the way, and wouldn’t mind seeing TOFU on the government cheese line.
Donovan McNabb spoke to the press for the first time since his injury and quickly dispelled the rumors that he’s upset and wants out of Philly. If you know me at all, you know where I stand on McNabb. I love the guy and want him running my team. I appreciate what Jeff Garcia did for the Eagles this season, but let’s be honest – the Eagles resurgence had more to do with Brian Westbrook getting the ball 25-30 times a game. The offense will be even better with a healthy McNabb if they continue to feed Westbrook. I also think Jeff Garcia will cash in with a free agent contract somewhere other than Philadelphia, so there should be no controversy there. Now if only there were some blue-chip linebackers available in the draft…
Speaking of the NFL’s Annual Selection Meeting, the talent pool is deeper thanks in large part to the college juniors that have declared themselves eligible. And, I had fun doing my mock draft last year, so look for that coming in the spring.
Before we get to spring, there’s one more game to pick.
Sunday, February 4th, 2007
The Match-up: Chicago Bears (+7.0) vs. Indianapolis Colts
The Skinny: If I’m a Colts fan, I’m actually encouraged by Peyton Manning’s two touchdowns and six interceptions. The fact that the Colts are in this game is a testament to the quality of the team around Manning. They can run the ball with Joseph Addai and Dominic Rhodes. Their leading receiver in the playoffs isn’t Marvin Harrison or Reggie Wayne. It’s Dallas Clark. Their defense has been much better in January than they were in November and December, thanks largely to the return of safety Bob Sanders. I don’t remember Adam Vinatieri ever missing a kick that mattered in the post-season. With all that being said, the recipe for beating the Colts includes taking the ball away from Manning when he’s got it, and keeping it away from him when he doesn’t. And those are two of the things the Bears do best. Chicago’s offensive line is sensational and can take over a game, especially one where they face an undersized defensive front. The Bears defense is outstanding, and they led the league in turnover margin this season. I completely disagree with the popular notion that Rex Grossman needs to have the game of his life if the Bears are going to have a shot. The bottom line is, all Grossman has to do in manage the game, something along the lines of 13-21 for 165 yards, a TD and a pick. Chicago is better in two of the three phases of the game - defense and special teams. I like the Bears to win Super Bowl XLI.
Straight Up: Chicago
Against the Spread: Chicago
The Score: Bears 26, Colts 23
Friday, February 02, 2007
Thursday, January 18, 2007
Role Reversal: Championship Weekend
On the heels of last week’s playoff games, two issues need to be addressed.
For starters, the Eagles fell 27-24 to the Saints in New Orleans, but had ample chances to win the game. To say they should have won would take credit away from the Saints, who played a great game and deserved to win. But the Eagles loss did not hinge solely on Andy Reid’s decision to punt on 4th and 15 with 1:56 to play. The thinking being, if they could have pinned the Saints deep in their own end, use their remaining timeouts and force a punt, they would have had a short field to work with only needing a field goal to send the game into overtime. Reid’s other option would have been to go for it on fourth down, where if they don’t convert, the Saints take over already in field goal range. Assuming the defense holds and the Saints extend their lead to six, the Eagles would have had to go the length of the field in less than a minute with no timeouts needing a touchdown to win the game. Reid opted to kick it away, and the rest, as they say, is history. Reid simply made the wrong decision. And why was it the wrong decision?
Because it didn’t work.
For my money, punting was still the right thing to do. Converting a fourth and long to keep a game-winning drive is a one-in-a-million shot, and that lightning already struck the Eagles (remember McNabb to FredEx on 4th and 26?). The bottom line is, if they would have gone for it on 4th and 15 and didn’t make it, Reid would be catching hell for not kicking it away. Instead of burying Reid and the Eagles, let’s commend them for winning six straight, winning the East, and holding it together without Donovan McNabb.
On Sunday, to the surprise of nobody, the Patriots beat the Chargers in San Diego, and celebrated by doing the Shawne Merriman “Lights Out” dance at midfield, which sparked the ire of the ever-classy LaDanian Tomlinson, who took a shot at Bill Belicheck afterwards. Much of the talk has been about the Patriots and how they are the gold standard in the league and should be above this kind of showmanship.
Here’s my question – why is everyone acting like the Patriots are a bunch of choirboys? This is the same team that, two years ago, did the Eagles wing flap every time they made a play. Their coach wouldn’t shake hands with a guy that used to work for him, then he chucked a photographer aside to give him a hug (which was all for show anyway). What, because they’ve won three Super Bowls in the last five years they’re immune to all the trash talk? The guys on this team are no different than guys on other teams.
Don’t get me wrong. I’m not saying the Patriots shouldn’t have done what they did. Rewind to last season when the Chargers went to Foxboro and beat the Patriots, snapping their 21-game home winning streak in the process. Word is a bunch of guys from the Chargers were yapping like Clubber Lang in “Rocky III.” The Patriots are a proud bunch, and I bet that had something to do with their reaction last week.
Plus, it’s not like the Chargers didn’t have it coming. Memo to the Chargers – if it’s going to piss you off to see someone come into your house and dance on your field, maybe next time you should win the game.
Complete role reversal for me this weekend. A week ago I was on an 0-4 streak but had the Eagles to fall back on. Last week, I went 4-0, but the Birds lost. Now that I don’t have a dog in the fight, I can actually pick objectively. Sort of.
Sunday, January 21st, 2007
The Match-up: New Orleans (+2.5) @ Chicago
The Skinny: On the surface, it would seem as though a dome team playing in Chicago in January would be at a severe disadvantage. But the Saints are 6-2 on the road this year, and they are balanced enough offensively to challenge the Bears defense. Chicago gave up 100 yards and two touchdowns to Shaun Alexander last week, and Deuce McAllister and Reggie Bush are both capable of taking over the game. Rex Grossman didn’t play half bad last week, and he’ll be tested by an underrated New Orleans defense. The Saints are hands down the best story in the league this year, and I hope they keep it going.
Straight Up: New Orleans
Against the Spread: New Orleans
The Score: Saints 27, Bears 20
The Match-up: New England (+3.0) @ Indianapolis
The Skinny: Really, could it be any other way? The difference is, this version of Patriots-Colts in the AFC title game is that this game is being played indoors, in the friendly confines of the RCA Dome, where the Colts are undefeated this year. Another difference? Adam Vinatieri kicks for the Colts now, and wouldn’t it be ironic of the game came down to a Vinatieri field goal? Look, sooner or later, Peyton Manning is going to have to cash one of these opportunities in, and this may be his best look at it. I think it’s finally his time.
Straight Up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Indianapolis
The Score: Colts 31, Patriots 23
For starters, the Eagles fell 27-24 to the Saints in New Orleans, but had ample chances to win the game. To say they should have won would take credit away from the Saints, who played a great game and deserved to win. But the Eagles loss did not hinge solely on Andy Reid’s decision to punt on 4th and 15 with 1:56 to play. The thinking being, if they could have pinned the Saints deep in their own end, use their remaining timeouts and force a punt, they would have had a short field to work with only needing a field goal to send the game into overtime. Reid’s other option would have been to go for it on fourth down, where if they don’t convert, the Saints take over already in field goal range. Assuming the defense holds and the Saints extend their lead to six, the Eagles would have had to go the length of the field in less than a minute with no timeouts needing a touchdown to win the game. Reid opted to kick it away, and the rest, as they say, is history. Reid simply made the wrong decision. And why was it the wrong decision?
Because it didn’t work.
For my money, punting was still the right thing to do. Converting a fourth and long to keep a game-winning drive is a one-in-a-million shot, and that lightning already struck the Eagles (remember McNabb to FredEx on 4th and 26?). The bottom line is, if they would have gone for it on 4th and 15 and didn’t make it, Reid would be catching hell for not kicking it away. Instead of burying Reid and the Eagles, let’s commend them for winning six straight, winning the East, and holding it together without Donovan McNabb.
On Sunday, to the surprise of nobody, the Patriots beat the Chargers in San Diego, and celebrated by doing the Shawne Merriman “Lights Out” dance at midfield, which sparked the ire of the ever-classy LaDanian Tomlinson, who took a shot at Bill Belicheck afterwards. Much of the talk has been about the Patriots and how they are the gold standard in the league and should be above this kind of showmanship.
Here’s my question – why is everyone acting like the Patriots are a bunch of choirboys? This is the same team that, two years ago, did the Eagles wing flap every time they made a play. Their coach wouldn’t shake hands with a guy that used to work for him, then he chucked a photographer aside to give him a hug (which was all for show anyway). What, because they’ve won three Super Bowls in the last five years they’re immune to all the trash talk? The guys on this team are no different than guys on other teams.
Don’t get me wrong. I’m not saying the Patriots shouldn’t have done what they did. Rewind to last season when the Chargers went to Foxboro and beat the Patriots, snapping their 21-game home winning streak in the process. Word is a bunch of guys from the Chargers were yapping like Clubber Lang in “Rocky III.” The Patriots are a proud bunch, and I bet that had something to do with their reaction last week.
Plus, it’s not like the Chargers didn’t have it coming. Memo to the Chargers – if it’s going to piss you off to see someone come into your house and dance on your field, maybe next time you should win the game.
Complete role reversal for me this weekend. A week ago I was on an 0-4 streak but had the Eagles to fall back on. Last week, I went 4-0, but the Birds lost. Now that I don’t have a dog in the fight, I can actually pick objectively. Sort of.
Sunday, January 21st, 2007
The Match-up: New Orleans (+2.5) @ Chicago
The Skinny: On the surface, it would seem as though a dome team playing in Chicago in January would be at a severe disadvantage. But the Saints are 6-2 on the road this year, and they are balanced enough offensively to challenge the Bears defense. Chicago gave up 100 yards and two touchdowns to Shaun Alexander last week, and Deuce McAllister and Reggie Bush are both capable of taking over the game. Rex Grossman didn’t play half bad last week, and he’ll be tested by an underrated New Orleans defense. The Saints are hands down the best story in the league this year, and I hope they keep it going.
Straight Up: New Orleans
Against the Spread: New Orleans
The Score: Saints 27, Bears 20
The Match-up: New England (+3.0) @ Indianapolis
The Skinny: Really, could it be any other way? The difference is, this version of Patriots-Colts in the AFC title game is that this game is being played indoors, in the friendly confines of the RCA Dome, where the Colts are undefeated this year. Another difference? Adam Vinatieri kicks for the Colts now, and wouldn’t it be ironic of the game came down to a Vinatieri field goal? Look, sooner or later, Peyton Manning is going to have to cash one of these opportunities in, and this may be his best look at it. I think it’s finally his time.
Straight Up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Indianapolis
The Score: Colts 31, Patriots 23
Friday, January 12, 2007
Nothing's Shocking
For the first time in recent memory, the eight remaining teams in the NFL are the top four seeds in each conference, all eight division winners. When the top seeds in a playoff bracket advance, they call it “Chalk.” I’m not exactly sure why, but I do know that chalk is easily erased.
My motto for this weekend’s games: Nothing’s Shocking. Would it surprise me to see the Patriots upset the Chargers in San Diego? Nope. On the flip side, if LT and the Chargers dismantled the Pats, that wouldn’t exactly shock me either. Who shows up, Dr. Rex-yll (250 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT, Bears win) or Mr. Gross-hyde (sub-30 QB rating, 3 INT, 2 fumbles, Bears loss)? Either way, I won’t be surprised. The Eagles, Saints, Colts and Ravens could all move on or fall flat.
This is by far the toughest weekend to call. I, however, feel like I’m playing with house money at this point in time. The Eagles have exceeded (almost) everyone’s expectations, and the Cowboys are out like the fat kid at a dodge ball game. What happens from here on out is gravy.
A quick aside before I get to the picks – I love the fact that Coors Light finally got some Jim Mora press conference clips into their commercials. His “Playoffs?” rant is still an all-timer. I miss Jim Mora. Can’t some team hire him to do PR? Maybe TOFU will bring him in as his new publicist, since he kicked that skeezer Kim Etheredge to the curb. I can see it now…
“Overdose? Overdose? Are you kiddin’ me? Overdose? I just hope he can catch the ball. He sucked. He just sucked. He couldn’t do diddly poo offensively. He gave ‘em the friggin’ game. In my opinion, he sucks.”
Saturday, January 13th, 2007
The Match-up: Indianapolis (+4.0) @ Baltimore
The Skinny: Here’s what scares me about the Colts this week. They’re coming off a game in which Peyton Manning threw three interceptions at home against a good but not great Kansas City defense. The Ravens defense led the league in takeaways, and they only surrendered 20+ points four times this season. Indy’s defense was impressive in shutting down Larry Johnson last week and will need a similar effort to contain Jamal Lewis. I’ve got a sneaking suspicion that the Colts are going to get it done.
Straight Up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Indianapolis
The Score: Colts 24, Ravens 19
The Match-up: Philadelphia (+5.0) @ New Orleans
The Skinny: As the old saying goes, the best defense is a good offense. Since the season-ending injury to Donovan McNabb, Brian Westbrook has emerged as a dominant every-down back. Witness last week’s win over the Giants – Westbrook ran for a career-high 141 yards on 20 carries, including a 49-yard touchdown. More importantly, the offense is more balanced, which makes it more effective. Match the running of Westbrook against the Saints’ 23rd-ranked rush defense, and it looks like the Eagles could be hated for ending the dream season of the real “America’s Team.”
Straight Up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia
The Score: Eagles 27, Saints 21
Sunday, January 14th, 2007
The Match-up: Seattle (+8.5) @ Chicago
The Skinny: In my mind, this game totally hinges on Rex Grossman. Seattle’s secondary is decimated to a point where they have safeties playing corner and former loan officers playing safety. Grossman needs to hit a couple of throws early to get his confidence going. Seattle’s only hope may be to get ahead early, then ride Shaun Alexander. If the Hawks fall behind early and have to throw it to catch up, I’m not sure they can do it. I think the Bears will win the game, but it will be closer than Bears fan might like.
Straight Up: Chicago
Against the Spread: Seattle
The Score: Bears 20, Seahawks 16
The Match-up: New England (+4.5) @ San Diego
The Skinny: The Chargers are the hottest team in the league, currently riding a 10-game winning streak. But the playoffs are a different animal altogether, and there are so many reasons not to pick San Diego. For example, Marty Schottenheimer has a lifetime 5-12 playoff record including eight one-and-done years. Philip Rivers has never started a playoff game, and he was in a walking boot after spraining his foot in the season finale against Arizona. On the other side of the ledger, Tom Brady is 11-1 all-time in the post-season, and he’s so tough to defend, even for a defense as good as San Diego’s. Blitz him and he hits the hot receiver (he made Jabar Gaffney look like Art Monk last week). Lay back and he’ll kill you underneath with dump offs to Laurence Maroney and Ben Watson. I’m a big LaDanian Tomlinson guy, but much like Larry Johnson last week, I don’t think he can do it alone. I just can’t go against the Pats.
Straight Up: New England
Against the Spread: New England
The Score: Patriots 27, Chargers 24
My motto for this weekend’s games: Nothing’s Shocking. Would it surprise me to see the Patriots upset the Chargers in San Diego? Nope. On the flip side, if LT and the Chargers dismantled the Pats, that wouldn’t exactly shock me either. Who shows up, Dr. Rex-yll (250 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT, Bears win) or Mr. Gross-hyde (sub-30 QB rating, 3 INT, 2 fumbles, Bears loss)? Either way, I won’t be surprised. The Eagles, Saints, Colts and Ravens could all move on or fall flat.
This is by far the toughest weekend to call. I, however, feel like I’m playing with house money at this point in time. The Eagles have exceeded (almost) everyone’s expectations, and the Cowboys are out like the fat kid at a dodge ball game. What happens from here on out is gravy.
A quick aside before I get to the picks – I love the fact that Coors Light finally got some Jim Mora press conference clips into their commercials. His “Playoffs?” rant is still an all-timer. I miss Jim Mora. Can’t some team hire him to do PR? Maybe TOFU will bring him in as his new publicist, since he kicked that skeezer Kim Etheredge to the curb. I can see it now…
“Overdose? Overdose? Are you kiddin’ me? Overdose? I just hope he can catch the ball. He sucked. He just sucked. He couldn’t do diddly poo offensively. He gave ‘em the friggin’ game. In my opinion, he sucks.”
Saturday, January 13th, 2007
The Match-up: Indianapolis (+4.0) @ Baltimore
The Skinny: Here’s what scares me about the Colts this week. They’re coming off a game in which Peyton Manning threw three interceptions at home against a good but not great Kansas City defense. The Ravens defense led the league in takeaways, and they only surrendered 20+ points four times this season. Indy’s defense was impressive in shutting down Larry Johnson last week and will need a similar effort to contain Jamal Lewis. I’ve got a sneaking suspicion that the Colts are going to get it done.
Straight Up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Indianapolis
The Score: Colts 24, Ravens 19
The Match-up: Philadelphia (+5.0) @ New Orleans
The Skinny: As the old saying goes, the best defense is a good offense. Since the season-ending injury to Donovan McNabb, Brian Westbrook has emerged as a dominant every-down back. Witness last week’s win over the Giants – Westbrook ran for a career-high 141 yards on 20 carries, including a 49-yard touchdown. More importantly, the offense is more balanced, which makes it more effective. Match the running of Westbrook against the Saints’ 23rd-ranked rush defense, and it looks like the Eagles could be hated for ending the dream season of the real “America’s Team.”
Straight Up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia
The Score: Eagles 27, Saints 21
Sunday, January 14th, 2007
The Match-up: Seattle (+8.5) @ Chicago
The Skinny: In my mind, this game totally hinges on Rex Grossman. Seattle’s secondary is decimated to a point where they have safeties playing corner and former loan officers playing safety. Grossman needs to hit a couple of throws early to get his confidence going. Seattle’s only hope may be to get ahead early, then ride Shaun Alexander. If the Hawks fall behind early and have to throw it to catch up, I’m not sure they can do it. I think the Bears will win the game, but it will be closer than Bears fan might like.
Straight Up: Chicago
Against the Spread: Seattle
The Score: Bears 20, Seahawks 16
The Match-up: New England (+4.5) @ San Diego
The Skinny: The Chargers are the hottest team in the league, currently riding a 10-game winning streak. But the playoffs are a different animal altogether, and there are so many reasons not to pick San Diego. For example, Marty Schottenheimer has a lifetime 5-12 playoff record including eight one-and-done years. Philip Rivers has never started a playoff game, and he was in a walking boot after spraining his foot in the season finale against Arizona. On the other side of the ledger, Tom Brady is 11-1 all-time in the post-season, and he’s so tough to defend, even for a defense as good as San Diego’s. Blitz him and he hits the hot receiver (he made Jabar Gaffney look like Art Monk last week). Lay back and he’ll kill you underneath with dump offs to Laurence Maroney and Ben Watson. I’m a big LaDanian Tomlinson guy, but much like Larry Johnson last week, I don’t think he can do it alone. I just can’t go against the Pats.
Straight Up: New England
Against the Spread: New England
The Score: Patriots 27, Chargers 24
Monday, January 08, 2007
Wild Card Wrap Up
This is why I don’t gamble.
Despite the fact that I picked all four winners (Indianapolis, Seattle, New England, Philadelphia) in round one of the NFL playoffs, I also took the collar against the spread, as Kansas City, Seattle, the Jets and Eagles all failed to cover.
Don’t get me wrong. I’m not complaining about the results. I mean, the Eagles win and advance to face a tough Saints team in New Orleans, meanwhile the Cowboys fumble away a potential win over the Seahawks thus ending their season. What a gaffe that was. Somebody better check on Tony Romo today and make sure he’s not sitting in his car in his garage with the engine running.
I’m sure TOFU isn’t too upset about it. He’s sitting at home after one playoff game (in which he turned in a stellar, two-catch, 26-yard performance) while the Eagles, led by Jeff Garcia, are on a six-game winning streak and still alive. But that shouldn’t bother TOFU. After all, he’s got 25 million reasons why he should be happy. At least that’s what his skeezer publicist would have you believe.
So much for the notion that Larry Johnson would single-handedly carry the Chiefs past the Colts and their horrendous run defense. LJ finished with just 32 yards on 13 carries and the Colts overcame three Peyton Manning picks to move on. Baltimore awaits.
Could we be destined for yet another Colts-Patriots AFC championship game? The Patriots did a number on the Jets yesterday and now head to San Diego. Who really knows what to expect from the Chargers? Can you believe in Philip Rivers? Or Marty Schottenheimer? I’m really on the fence about this one.
Way back in May, CNN-Si.com writer Jeffri Chadiha penned a column in which he discounted the Super Bowl chances of five teams. The second team he mentioned? The Philadelphia Eagles. Chadiha’s peril of wisdom read:
“If I'm an Eagles fan, I have some major concerns about this offense. It's starting to look a lot like it did back in the days before Terrell Owens blew into town. There isn't a receiver who really scares a defense. The running game isn't intimidating either, not when Brian Westbrook will be splitting carries with Ryan Moats and the oft-injured Correll Buckhalter. Even with a healthy Donovan McNabb back at quarterback, there are plenty of reasons to think that the best days of this perennial NFC contender have passed. One look at the competition in the NFC East -- where Washington, Dallas and the New York Giants have improved -- should cement that opinion.”
I e-mailed this genius when I read the article, noting that the offense prior to TOFU was in three straight NFC championship games, and that Brian Westbrook was one of the most underrated players in the league, and that the receiving corps would be better than advertised. He invited his readers to e-mail him back at the end of the season, and when I do I will point how the not-so-intimidating Westbrook amassed better than 1,900 yards from scrimmage, how the Eagles went 5-1 against their vastly improved NFC East foes, and how the Eagles are the only team from the East still in contention. It warrants mentioning that Chadiha also tabbed the Kansas City Chiefs (9-7 and in the playoffs) and San Diego Chargers (14-2 and the best team in the league) as hopeless. Mel Kiper Jr. thinks this guy is stealing a paycheck. Next year when Chadiha publishes his ‘Five Teams with No Chance’ column, I’m flying to Vegas and betting the farm on those five teams (as long as the Cowboys are not among them).
Look for the second round picks later in the week.
Despite the fact that I picked all four winners (Indianapolis, Seattle, New England, Philadelphia) in round one of the NFL playoffs, I also took the collar against the spread, as Kansas City, Seattle, the Jets and Eagles all failed to cover.
Don’t get me wrong. I’m not complaining about the results. I mean, the Eagles win and advance to face a tough Saints team in New Orleans, meanwhile the Cowboys fumble away a potential win over the Seahawks thus ending their season. What a gaffe that was. Somebody better check on Tony Romo today and make sure he’s not sitting in his car in his garage with the engine running.
I’m sure TOFU isn’t too upset about it. He’s sitting at home after one playoff game (in which he turned in a stellar, two-catch, 26-yard performance) while the Eagles, led by Jeff Garcia, are on a six-game winning streak and still alive. But that shouldn’t bother TOFU. After all, he’s got 25 million reasons why he should be happy. At least that’s what his skeezer publicist would have you believe.
So much for the notion that Larry Johnson would single-handedly carry the Chiefs past the Colts and their horrendous run defense. LJ finished with just 32 yards on 13 carries and the Colts overcame three Peyton Manning picks to move on. Baltimore awaits.
Could we be destined for yet another Colts-Patriots AFC championship game? The Patriots did a number on the Jets yesterday and now head to San Diego. Who really knows what to expect from the Chargers? Can you believe in Philip Rivers? Or Marty Schottenheimer? I’m really on the fence about this one.
Way back in May, CNN-Si.com writer Jeffri Chadiha penned a column in which he discounted the Super Bowl chances of five teams. The second team he mentioned? The Philadelphia Eagles. Chadiha’s peril of wisdom read:
“If I'm an Eagles fan, I have some major concerns about this offense. It's starting to look a lot like it did back in the days before Terrell Owens blew into town. There isn't a receiver who really scares a defense. The running game isn't intimidating either, not when Brian Westbrook will be splitting carries with Ryan Moats and the oft-injured Correll Buckhalter. Even with a healthy Donovan McNabb back at quarterback, there are plenty of reasons to think that the best days of this perennial NFC contender have passed. One look at the competition in the NFC East -- where Washington, Dallas and the New York Giants have improved -- should cement that opinion.”
I e-mailed this genius when I read the article, noting that the offense prior to TOFU was in three straight NFC championship games, and that Brian Westbrook was one of the most underrated players in the league, and that the receiving corps would be better than advertised. He invited his readers to e-mail him back at the end of the season, and when I do I will point how the not-so-intimidating Westbrook amassed better than 1,900 yards from scrimmage, how the Eagles went 5-1 against their vastly improved NFC East foes, and how the Eagles are the only team from the East still in contention. It warrants mentioning that Chadiha also tabbed the Kansas City Chiefs (9-7 and in the playoffs) and San Diego Chargers (14-2 and the best team in the league) as hopeless. Mel Kiper Jr. thinks this guy is stealing a paycheck. Next year when Chadiha publishes his ‘Five Teams with No Chance’ column, I’m flying to Vegas and betting the farm on those five teams (as long as the Cowboys are not among them).
Look for the second round picks later in the week.
Wednesday, January 03, 2007
Wild Card Weekend
Well, 2006 certainly ended on a high note.
Let me rewind to Saturday, December 30th. I was enjoying a nice steak dinner at Ruth’s Chris Steak House in Cary, NC with a couple of friends when I glanced to my right and saw Derian Hatcher, Peter Forsberg, Robert Esche, Antero Niittymaki, Mike Knuble, and Alexei Zhitnik sitting at the table next to ours. The Flyers were in town to play the Hurricanes. We ordered a round of beers for their table, and after dinner Esche came over and shook all of our hands. He went out and had 40 saves in a 5-2 victory Sunday night. Must have been the extra Bud Light he threw down.
Speaking of that game, I was tipped off to the fact that the Flyers morning skate would be open to the public, so I took my 4 ½ year-old son to the arena to watch, knowing full well that I wouldn’t be able to take him to an 8:00 PM face off on New Year’s Eve. Anyway, the doors closest to where we parked were locked, but a door on the other side of the building was propped open. We entered and were greeted by a security guard, leading to the following exchange:
Me: “We’re here for the Flyers skate.”
Security Guard: “Are you with the Flyers Fan Club?”
Me: “Um…yes.” (I’m not, but whatever).
Security Guard: “OK, the rest of your party is right down here.”
We were escorted to a section of seats about five rows back of the glass as the Hurricanes were finishing their practice. Once they were finished, all of the Caniacs in attendance were told to leave and the Flyers Fan Club, myself included, moved down into the front rows. The Zamboni cleaned the rink (clearly the highlight of Ryan’s day), and then the Flyers took the ice. Following practice, as the players were filtering off, a few waved and smiled, and we received a couple of practice pucks as souvenirs. A good time had by all.
I made it home just in time to tune into Week 17 of the NFL, which had lost some luster thanks to the fact that the Giants defeat of Washington on Saturday night mathematically eliminated many of the NFC teams. But I did get to watch a lot of the Kansas City-Jacksonville game and followed other scores on the computer. One game in particular I was paying close attention to went exactly the way I hoped it would…
Detroit 39, Dallas 31.
I said the 2-13 Detroit Lions, jockeying for the first overall pick in April’s draft, hung 39 points on a Dallas team playing at home in the Toilet still with a chance to win the NFC East. The Lions win clinched the fifth NFC East division title for the Eagles in the last six years. It also rendered the Eagles-Falcons game merely an exhibition, meaning Jeff Garcia, Brian Westbrook, and most of the other key starters got to rest after the first series. Philadelphia will host the Giants on Sunday (more on this and the other playoff games in a minute).
So to sum up New Year’s Eve, the Eagles won, the Flyers won, and the Cowboys choked on one. That’s a pretty good New Year’s as far as I’m concerned.
2007 did not start out as well. My daughter was sick and proceeded to barf all over me at about 7:30 in the morning on the 1st. I’ve yet to decide if getting yanked on is a good or bad omen for ’07. I’ll have to get back to you on that one.
Here are a few other random thoughts before I get to this weekend’s playoff games.
* Condolences to the family and friends of Broncos cornerback Darrent Williams, who was shot and killed early Monday morning outside a night club in Denver. The 24 year-old left behind two young children, and it sounds as though Williams was simply in the wrong place at the wrong time, which is a real shame.
* Tennessee Titans quarterback Vince Young and Houston Texans linebacker DeMeco Ryans were named offensive and defensive rookies of the year, and I completely agree with both choices. Can you believe the Texans could have had both?
* Is anybody really surprised that Nick Saban left the Dolphins to take the Alabama job? For starters, they waved a boatload of cash at him ($32 million guaranteed over eight years). Plus, he’s more suited to the college game as his records at Michigan State and LSU would indicate. Dolphins fans shouldn’t be too upset about losing Saban, as he only compiled a 15-17 record and no playoff appearances during his two-year tenure. There are plenty of guys that can do that.
* I had Tom Coughlin as the first coach to get the axe, but the Giants at least made it to the playoffs. I still think he’s dead man walking, but he’s not the first to be let go. That honor was shared between Jim Mora and Dennis Green, dismissed by Atlanta and Arizona, respectively. With Saban gone and Coughlin soon to follow (like, on Monday) there are already four head coaching vacancies in the NFL, and the season has only been officially over for three days.
* Interesting Stat #1 – In his last five starts, Cowboys QB Tony Romo has thrown eight interceptions and fumbled the ball seven times. By my count, that’s 15 turnovers, or three per start. Welcome to the Turnover Factory, Mr. Romo! Mr. Warner will now show you to your office, then Mr. Grossman will be taking you out to lunch.
* Interesting Stat #2 – The Philadelphia Eagles enter the playoffs on a five-game winning streak for the second time in franchise history. The last time they did so was 1949, when the Eagles went on to win the NFL Championship. Talk about a good omen.
In what must be termed a down year in terms of the picks, I finished 2006 with records of 157-99 straight up and 129-120-7 against the spread. Despite the fact that both marks declined from 2005, I still picked more winners than all but one of ESPN’s so-called “Experts,” and the one was Mike Golic, a Notre Dame guy, so I’m cool with that.
One final piece of business. Last year, when I made my playoff picks, I did so for the entire post-season in one fell swoop. Courtesy of the coin toss system, I predicted the NFC without flaw, which was pretty funny. I have opted to go week by week this year, starting with this weekend’s wild card games. I’ll even give you scores.
Saturday, January 6th, 2007
The Match-up: Kansas City (+6.5) @ Indianapolis
The Skinny: Herm Edwards has been adamant that the Chiefs did not back into the playoffs, and on some level I agree with him. Kansas City did win their final two games to get to 9-7, but they only got in because some other teams (notably, Denver) threw it in the tank. KC didn’t back in, the Broncos backed out. Now some people are thinking the Chiefs can upset the Colts, and with the combination of Larry Johnson and Indy’s run defense, it’s not out of the realm of possibility. However, I could see Peyton Manning running a perfect two-minute drill to put Indianapolis ahead for good late in the game.
Straight Up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Kansas City
The Score: Colts 24, Chiefs 20
The Match-up: Dallas (+3.0) @ Seattle
The Skinny: Neither team is exactly on a roll right now. Both the Seahawks and Cowboys have lost three of their last four, the difference being Seattle hung on to win their mediocre division. That’s why this game is being played in the Pacific Northwest. Dallas’ defense has been an abomination, surrendering 131 points in their last four games. No reason to think that Matt Hasselbeck and Shaun Alexander can’t run roughshod over the Cowboys.
Straight Up: Seattle
Against the Spread: Seattle
The Score: Seahawks 34, Cowboys 23
Sunday, January 7th, 2007
The Match-up: New York Jets (+9.0) @ New England
The Skinny: The two played tight games both times they faced each other this year, with the Patriots winning 24-17 in Foxboro and the Jets 17-14 in the swamps of Jersey. Much has been made of the contentious relationship between Bill Belichick and Eric Mangini, but hopefully that doesn’t overshadow what might be the most entertaining game of the weekend. It’s January, it’s Foxboro, it’s Brady and Belichick, therefore it’s the Pats in a close one.
Straight Up: New England
Against the Spread: New York Jets
The Score: Patriots 24, Jets 23
The Match-up: New York Giants (+6.5) @ Philadelphia
The Skinny: I’ll admit I was a little nervous when I saw the kind of numbers Tiki Barber put up against the Redskins on Saturday – 23 carries, 234 yards, 3 scores. Tiki, like his brother, has been a thorn in the Eagles side before. But the more I thought about it, I began to realize that the Birds dominated the Giants for seven of the nine quarters they played this year, the two exceptions being the fourth quarter and overtime of their Week 2 match up when Andy Reid went Marty Schottenheimer and took the air our of the ball. With Jeff Garcia at quarterback, the Eagles offense is perhaps the most balanced of the playoff teams. The offensive line has played very well of late, and the defense seems to have turned a corner during this five-game winning streak. The Eagles will take Tiki out of play and make She-li Manning win the game for New York, and I don’t think he’s capable of doing that.
Straight Up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia
The Score: Eagles 31, Giants 17
Let me rewind to Saturday, December 30th. I was enjoying a nice steak dinner at Ruth’s Chris Steak House in Cary, NC with a couple of friends when I glanced to my right and saw Derian Hatcher, Peter Forsberg, Robert Esche, Antero Niittymaki, Mike Knuble, and Alexei Zhitnik sitting at the table next to ours. The Flyers were in town to play the Hurricanes. We ordered a round of beers for their table, and after dinner Esche came over and shook all of our hands. He went out and had 40 saves in a 5-2 victory Sunday night. Must have been the extra Bud Light he threw down.
Speaking of that game, I was tipped off to the fact that the Flyers morning skate would be open to the public, so I took my 4 ½ year-old son to the arena to watch, knowing full well that I wouldn’t be able to take him to an 8:00 PM face off on New Year’s Eve. Anyway, the doors closest to where we parked were locked, but a door on the other side of the building was propped open. We entered and were greeted by a security guard, leading to the following exchange:
Me: “We’re here for the Flyers skate.”
Security Guard: “Are you with the Flyers Fan Club?”
Me: “Um…yes.” (I’m not, but whatever).
Security Guard: “OK, the rest of your party is right down here.”
We were escorted to a section of seats about five rows back of the glass as the Hurricanes were finishing their practice. Once they were finished, all of the Caniacs in attendance were told to leave and the Flyers Fan Club, myself included, moved down into the front rows. The Zamboni cleaned the rink (clearly the highlight of Ryan’s day), and then the Flyers took the ice. Following practice, as the players were filtering off, a few waved and smiled, and we received a couple of practice pucks as souvenirs. A good time had by all.
I made it home just in time to tune into Week 17 of the NFL, which had lost some luster thanks to the fact that the Giants defeat of Washington on Saturday night mathematically eliminated many of the NFC teams. But I did get to watch a lot of the Kansas City-Jacksonville game and followed other scores on the computer. One game in particular I was paying close attention to went exactly the way I hoped it would…
Detroit 39, Dallas 31.
I said the 2-13 Detroit Lions, jockeying for the first overall pick in April’s draft, hung 39 points on a Dallas team playing at home in the Toilet still with a chance to win the NFC East. The Lions win clinched the fifth NFC East division title for the Eagles in the last six years. It also rendered the Eagles-Falcons game merely an exhibition, meaning Jeff Garcia, Brian Westbrook, and most of the other key starters got to rest after the first series. Philadelphia will host the Giants on Sunday (more on this and the other playoff games in a minute).
So to sum up New Year’s Eve, the Eagles won, the Flyers won, and the Cowboys choked on one. That’s a pretty good New Year’s as far as I’m concerned.
2007 did not start out as well. My daughter was sick and proceeded to barf all over me at about 7:30 in the morning on the 1st. I’ve yet to decide if getting yanked on is a good or bad omen for ’07. I’ll have to get back to you on that one.
Here are a few other random thoughts before I get to this weekend’s playoff games.
* Condolences to the family and friends of Broncos cornerback Darrent Williams, who was shot and killed early Monday morning outside a night club in Denver. The 24 year-old left behind two young children, and it sounds as though Williams was simply in the wrong place at the wrong time, which is a real shame.
* Tennessee Titans quarterback Vince Young and Houston Texans linebacker DeMeco Ryans were named offensive and defensive rookies of the year, and I completely agree with both choices. Can you believe the Texans could have had both?
* Is anybody really surprised that Nick Saban left the Dolphins to take the Alabama job? For starters, they waved a boatload of cash at him ($32 million guaranteed over eight years). Plus, he’s more suited to the college game as his records at Michigan State and LSU would indicate. Dolphins fans shouldn’t be too upset about losing Saban, as he only compiled a 15-17 record and no playoff appearances during his two-year tenure. There are plenty of guys that can do that.
* I had Tom Coughlin as the first coach to get the axe, but the Giants at least made it to the playoffs. I still think he’s dead man walking, but he’s not the first to be let go. That honor was shared between Jim Mora and Dennis Green, dismissed by Atlanta and Arizona, respectively. With Saban gone and Coughlin soon to follow (like, on Monday) there are already four head coaching vacancies in the NFL, and the season has only been officially over for three days.
* Interesting Stat #1 – In his last five starts, Cowboys QB Tony Romo has thrown eight interceptions and fumbled the ball seven times. By my count, that’s 15 turnovers, or three per start. Welcome to the Turnover Factory, Mr. Romo! Mr. Warner will now show you to your office, then Mr. Grossman will be taking you out to lunch.
* Interesting Stat #2 – The Philadelphia Eagles enter the playoffs on a five-game winning streak for the second time in franchise history. The last time they did so was 1949, when the Eagles went on to win the NFL Championship. Talk about a good omen.
In what must be termed a down year in terms of the picks, I finished 2006 with records of 157-99 straight up and 129-120-7 against the spread. Despite the fact that both marks declined from 2005, I still picked more winners than all but one of ESPN’s so-called “Experts,” and the one was Mike Golic, a Notre Dame guy, so I’m cool with that.
One final piece of business. Last year, when I made my playoff picks, I did so for the entire post-season in one fell swoop. Courtesy of the coin toss system, I predicted the NFC without flaw, which was pretty funny. I have opted to go week by week this year, starting with this weekend’s wild card games. I’ll even give you scores.
Saturday, January 6th, 2007
The Match-up: Kansas City (+6.5) @ Indianapolis
The Skinny: Herm Edwards has been adamant that the Chiefs did not back into the playoffs, and on some level I agree with him. Kansas City did win their final two games to get to 9-7, but they only got in because some other teams (notably, Denver) threw it in the tank. KC didn’t back in, the Broncos backed out. Now some people are thinking the Chiefs can upset the Colts, and with the combination of Larry Johnson and Indy’s run defense, it’s not out of the realm of possibility. However, I could see Peyton Manning running a perfect two-minute drill to put Indianapolis ahead for good late in the game.
Straight Up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Kansas City
The Score: Colts 24, Chiefs 20
The Match-up: Dallas (+3.0) @ Seattle
The Skinny: Neither team is exactly on a roll right now. Both the Seahawks and Cowboys have lost three of their last four, the difference being Seattle hung on to win their mediocre division. That’s why this game is being played in the Pacific Northwest. Dallas’ defense has been an abomination, surrendering 131 points in their last four games. No reason to think that Matt Hasselbeck and Shaun Alexander can’t run roughshod over the Cowboys.
Straight Up: Seattle
Against the Spread: Seattle
The Score: Seahawks 34, Cowboys 23
Sunday, January 7th, 2007
The Match-up: New York Jets (+9.0) @ New England
The Skinny: The two played tight games both times they faced each other this year, with the Patriots winning 24-17 in Foxboro and the Jets 17-14 in the swamps of Jersey. Much has been made of the contentious relationship between Bill Belichick and Eric Mangini, but hopefully that doesn’t overshadow what might be the most entertaining game of the weekend. It’s January, it’s Foxboro, it’s Brady and Belichick, therefore it’s the Pats in a close one.
Straight Up: New England
Against the Spread: New York Jets
The Score: Patriots 24, Jets 23
The Match-up: New York Giants (+6.5) @ Philadelphia
The Skinny: I’ll admit I was a little nervous when I saw the kind of numbers Tiki Barber put up against the Redskins on Saturday – 23 carries, 234 yards, 3 scores. Tiki, like his brother, has been a thorn in the Eagles side before. But the more I thought about it, I began to realize that the Birds dominated the Giants for seven of the nine quarters they played this year, the two exceptions being the fourth quarter and overtime of their Week 2 match up when Andy Reid went Marty Schottenheimer and took the air our of the ball. With Jeff Garcia at quarterback, the Eagles offense is perhaps the most balanced of the playoff teams. The offensive line has played very well of late, and the defense seems to have turned a corner during this five-game winning streak. The Eagles will take Tiki out of play and make She-li Manning win the game for New York, and I don’t think he’s capable of doing that.
Straight Up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia
The Score: Eagles 31, Giants 17
Friday, December 29, 2006
The Week 17 Picks
The race for the NFL playoffs can best be described as a cluster. There are twenty teams that are mathematically still alive, nine of whom have already punched their post-season tickets. Of the eleven remaining, I’d say four have a legitimate chance. Here’s a concise scenario:
AFC
Clinched: San Diego, Baltimore, New England, Indianapolis
Control Own Destiny: New York Jets, Denver
Still Alive: Cincinnati, Jacksonville, Kansas City, Tennessee
What Will Happen: The Jets play the Raiders, and Denver hosts San Francisco, so they’re both likely in; San Diego will beat Arizona to clinch home field; Baltimore will be the two seed.
NFC
Clinched: Chicago, New Orleans, Seattle, Philadelphia, Dallas
Control Own Destiny: Technically, nobody (but the Giants hold most of the tiebreakers)
Still Alive: Atlanta, Carolina, Green Bay, St. Louis
What Will Happen: If the Giants can’t get it together for a must-win tomorrow night, they probably don’t deserve to be in the playoffs anyway; The Rams may be in the cat bird seat here, as they face the Vikings (should be a win) and the teams they need to lose all have tough match-ups (Atlanta in Philly, Carolina in New Orleans, Green Bay in Chicago). Oh, and the Eagles will win the East and be the third seed.
In short, I’d be surprised to see anyone other than the Jets, Broncos, Giants and/or Rams in the playoffs. Of course, this NFL season has been so bizarre, nothing would truly shock me at this point. With that being said, here are the Week 17 picks.
Saturday, December 30, 2006
The Match-up: New York Giants (-2.5) @ Washington
The Skinny: I’ve got Tom Coughlin as the first coach canned in the off-season, just ahead of Jim Mora Jr.
Straight Up: Washington
Against the Spread: Washington
Sunday, December 31, 2006
The Match-up: Jacksonville (+2.5) @ Kansas City
The Skinny: Call it the too little, too late bowl…
Straight Up: Kansas City
Against the Spread: Kansas City
The Match-up: St. Louis (-2.5) @ Minnesota
The Skinny: Of all the teams that the Eagles could face in round one, I think the Rams scare me the most. Steven Jackson is a straight up stud.
Straight Up: St. Louis
Against the Spread: St. Louis
The Match-up: Carolina (-3.0) @ New Orleans
The Skinny: The Saints are firmly entrenched in the number two spot in the NFC, and it’s a must-win for the Panthers. In spite of the fact that Jake del-overrated will be back under center for Carolina (or maybe because of that), I’ve got to go with the Saints.
Straight Up: New Orleans
Against the Spread: New Orleans
The Match-up: Oakland (+12.5) @ New York Jets
The Skinny: Wonder if the Raiders have started printing up replica Brady Quinn #10 jerseys yet.
Straight Up: New York Jets
Against the Spread: New York Jets
The Match-up: Pittsburgh (+6.0) @ Cincinnati
The Skinny: Where will Bill Cowher be coaching next year? My guess is Pittsburgh, because he’s not going to find greener grass anywhere.
Straight Up: Cincinnati
Against the Spread: Cincinnati
The Match-up: Detroit (+12.5) @ Dallas
The Skinny: See if you can figure out who Dallas CB Terrance Newman was talking about in the following quote: "People need to just start playing and stop talking so much. It's a show-me league and talking is not going to do anything." (I’ll give you a hint – his nickname is TOFU and he sucks)
Straight Up: Detroit
Against the Spread: Detroit
The Match-up: Seattle (+3.5) @ Tampa Bay
The Skinny: The Bucs gave Chris Simms a two-year contract extension despite the spleen-ectomy that sidelined him most of this season. That’s a real vote of confidence for Bruce Gradkowski.
Straight Up: Seattle
Against the Spread: Seattle
The Match-up: New England (+3.0) @ Tennessee
The Skinny: Why go against the next big thing at home when he’ll likely be facing a team quarterbacked by Matt Cassell in the second half? Gut feeling.
Straight Up: New England
Against the Spread: New England
The Match-up: Cleveland (+4.0) @ Houston
The Skinny: Whoever will be managing the Browns 2007 draft should look up Charlie Casserly and ask him if he would take a mulligan on the ’06 draft. Troy Smith in Cleveland could be a perfect situation for both.
Straight Up: Cleveland
Against the Spread: Cleveland
The Match-up: Atlanta (+8.0) @ Philadelphia
The Skinny: Ron Mexico threw Jim Mora under the bus this week, saying there’s too much talent on the Falcons for them to be in the position they are. Mexico should know best. He’s Exhibit A.
Straight Up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia
The Match-up: Arizona (+13.5) @ San Diego
The Skinny: Jason Taylor may not think Shawne Merriman is a viable candidate for Defensive Player of the Year, but Kurt Warner will by the end of Sunday.
Straight Up: San Diego
Against the Spread: San Diego
The Match-up: San Francisco (+10.5) @ Denver
The Skinny: Frank Gore alone may be enough to keep the game close, but the Broncos should come out on top.
Straight Up: Denver
Against the Spread: San Francisco
The Match-up: Buffalo (+9.0) @ Baltimore
The Skinny: A game featuring two teams on the east coast kicks off at 4:00, the same time as the Chargers-Cardinals game when the Chargers and Ravens are battling for the top seed in the AFC. Coincidence?
Straight Up: Baltimore
Against the Spread: Baltimore
The Match-up: Miami (+9.0) @ Indianapolis
The Skinny: There are a few reasons I was leaning towards Miami (good defense, a healthy Ronnie Brown, Indy’s porous run defense) and one overwhelming reason why I went with the Colts (Cleo Lemon will start at quarterback for the Dolphins on Sunday).
Straight Up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Indianapolis
The Match-up: Green Bay (+3.0) @ Chicago
The Skinny: The funny thing is, if the Bears were to rest Rex Grossman and Thomas Jones in favor of Brian Griese and Cedric Benson, they might have been a seven point favorite. Happy trails, Brett (just in case), and congratulations on a Hall-of-Fame career.
Straight Up: Chicago
Against the Spread: Chicago
AFC
Clinched: San Diego, Baltimore, New England, Indianapolis
Control Own Destiny: New York Jets, Denver
Still Alive: Cincinnati, Jacksonville, Kansas City, Tennessee
What Will Happen: The Jets play the Raiders, and Denver hosts San Francisco, so they’re both likely in; San Diego will beat Arizona to clinch home field; Baltimore will be the two seed.
NFC
Clinched: Chicago, New Orleans, Seattle, Philadelphia, Dallas
Control Own Destiny: Technically, nobody (but the Giants hold most of the tiebreakers)
Still Alive: Atlanta, Carolina, Green Bay, St. Louis
What Will Happen: If the Giants can’t get it together for a must-win tomorrow night, they probably don’t deserve to be in the playoffs anyway; The Rams may be in the cat bird seat here, as they face the Vikings (should be a win) and the teams they need to lose all have tough match-ups (Atlanta in Philly, Carolina in New Orleans, Green Bay in Chicago). Oh, and the Eagles will win the East and be the third seed.
In short, I’d be surprised to see anyone other than the Jets, Broncos, Giants and/or Rams in the playoffs. Of course, this NFL season has been so bizarre, nothing would truly shock me at this point. With that being said, here are the Week 17 picks.
Saturday, December 30, 2006
The Match-up: New York Giants (-2.5) @ Washington
The Skinny: I’ve got Tom Coughlin as the first coach canned in the off-season, just ahead of Jim Mora Jr.
Straight Up: Washington
Against the Spread: Washington
Sunday, December 31, 2006
The Match-up: Jacksonville (+2.5) @ Kansas City
The Skinny: Call it the too little, too late bowl…
Straight Up: Kansas City
Against the Spread: Kansas City
The Match-up: St. Louis (-2.5) @ Minnesota
The Skinny: Of all the teams that the Eagles could face in round one, I think the Rams scare me the most. Steven Jackson is a straight up stud.
Straight Up: St. Louis
Against the Spread: St. Louis
The Match-up: Carolina (-3.0) @ New Orleans
The Skinny: The Saints are firmly entrenched in the number two spot in the NFC, and it’s a must-win for the Panthers. In spite of the fact that Jake del-overrated will be back under center for Carolina (or maybe because of that), I’ve got to go with the Saints.
Straight Up: New Orleans
Against the Spread: New Orleans
The Match-up: Oakland (+12.5) @ New York Jets
The Skinny: Wonder if the Raiders have started printing up replica Brady Quinn #10 jerseys yet.
Straight Up: New York Jets
Against the Spread: New York Jets
The Match-up: Pittsburgh (+6.0) @ Cincinnati
The Skinny: Where will Bill Cowher be coaching next year? My guess is Pittsburgh, because he’s not going to find greener grass anywhere.
Straight Up: Cincinnati
Against the Spread: Cincinnati
The Match-up: Detroit (+12.5) @ Dallas
The Skinny: See if you can figure out who Dallas CB Terrance Newman was talking about in the following quote: "People need to just start playing and stop talking so much. It's a show-me league and talking is not going to do anything." (I’ll give you a hint – his nickname is TOFU and he sucks)
Straight Up: Detroit
Against the Spread: Detroit
The Match-up: Seattle (+3.5) @ Tampa Bay
The Skinny: The Bucs gave Chris Simms a two-year contract extension despite the spleen-ectomy that sidelined him most of this season. That’s a real vote of confidence for Bruce Gradkowski.
Straight Up: Seattle
Against the Spread: Seattle
The Match-up: New England (+3.0) @ Tennessee
The Skinny: Why go against the next big thing at home when he’ll likely be facing a team quarterbacked by Matt Cassell in the second half? Gut feeling.
Straight Up: New England
Against the Spread: New England
The Match-up: Cleveland (+4.0) @ Houston
The Skinny: Whoever will be managing the Browns 2007 draft should look up Charlie Casserly and ask him if he would take a mulligan on the ’06 draft. Troy Smith in Cleveland could be a perfect situation for both.
Straight Up: Cleveland
Against the Spread: Cleveland
The Match-up: Atlanta (+8.0) @ Philadelphia
The Skinny: Ron Mexico threw Jim Mora under the bus this week, saying there’s too much talent on the Falcons for them to be in the position they are. Mexico should know best. He’s Exhibit A.
Straight Up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia
The Match-up: Arizona (+13.5) @ San Diego
The Skinny: Jason Taylor may not think Shawne Merriman is a viable candidate for Defensive Player of the Year, but Kurt Warner will by the end of Sunday.
Straight Up: San Diego
Against the Spread: San Diego
The Match-up: San Francisco (+10.5) @ Denver
The Skinny: Frank Gore alone may be enough to keep the game close, but the Broncos should come out on top.
Straight Up: Denver
Against the Spread: San Francisco
The Match-up: Buffalo (+9.0) @ Baltimore
The Skinny: A game featuring two teams on the east coast kicks off at 4:00, the same time as the Chargers-Cardinals game when the Chargers and Ravens are battling for the top seed in the AFC. Coincidence?
Straight Up: Baltimore
Against the Spread: Baltimore
The Match-up: Miami (+9.0) @ Indianapolis
The Skinny: There are a few reasons I was leaning towards Miami (good defense, a healthy Ronnie Brown, Indy’s porous run defense) and one overwhelming reason why I went with the Colts (Cleo Lemon will start at quarterback for the Dolphins on Sunday).
Straight Up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Indianapolis
The Match-up: Green Bay (+3.0) @ Chicago
The Skinny: The funny thing is, if the Bears were to rest Rex Grossman and Thomas Jones in favor of Brian Griese and Cedric Benson, they might have been a seven point favorite. Happy trails, Brett (just in case), and congratulations on a Hall-of-Fame career.
Straight Up: Chicago
Against the Spread: Chicago
Thursday, December 28, 2006
Revisionist History
Just wanted to take a minute to announce my association with NFL Bloggers (www.nfl-bloggers.com), a portal of other NFL-related blogs. To those readers who are new to the site, welcome aboard. Here’s a little background for you (if you’ve been with me for a while, feel free to skip ahead).
The genesis of the site goes back almost six years, when I happened upon a column called “Pete’s Picks” in USA Today. A guy named Pete O’Brien picked every NFL game that weekend, straight up and against the spread, and I was astonished at how bad some of his picks were. I couldn’t believe this guy was pulling a paycheck to print them. I tracked my picks versus his for the remainder of the season, and blew him out of the water. Starting with the 2001-02 season, I documented my picks and communicated them via e-mail to a few of my friends. When the scope of the project expanded, I opted for a more public forum, hence the creation of Ant’s “Expert” NFL Page in June 2005. The title pays veiled homage to the “Experts” on sites like ESPN and CNN-SI whose record at picking games is no better than mine. If they are “Experts,” why shouldn’t I be?
There are a few caveats that you should keep in mind:
1. The picks are for entertainment purposes only. If you use my opinions as a basis for your gambling, that’s your business.
2. I am not NFL-sanctioned, therefore I am under no obligation to be objective. I am merely a football fan with opinions.
3. When making my picks, I adhere to a couple of strict rules:
a) I will ALWAYS pick the Philadelphia Eagles, regardless of opponent, venue, or point spread. It’s my right as a fan to do so.
b) Conversely, I will NEVER pick the Dallas Cowboys, regardless of opponent, venue, or point spread. In a perfect world, the Cowboys would be 0-16 every year for the rest of their miserable existence.
c) I don’t use gimmicks, like the “Upset of the Week.” I don’t want to call an upset because I’m required to. If I think one team will beat another, I’ll let you know. And you won’t find a “Lock of the Week” on this site. I think all of my picks are locks. Otherwise, I wouldn’t pick them.
Anyway, the picks are the meat and potatoes of the site, but occasionally there will be a topic that warrants some commentary, so I may share a random thought here or there. For example…
I got the Christmas present I really wanted at around 8:00 Monday night, as the Eagles were finishing up their dominance of the Cowboys in Dallas. The Eagles completed the season sweep and vaulted into first place in the NFC East and can clinch the division with a win over Atlanta on Sunday. The Cowboys, meanwhile, started sniping at each other even before there were zeroes on the clock. I watched the first half with a couple of cousins-in-law by marriage who are Cowboys fans (both from New Jersey, so figure that one out) and the second at home with my family. The only way it would have been better is if TOFU didn’t score Dallas’ touchdown.
Speaking of, not only was TOFU’s celebration cheesy (he extended both arms straight out like a “T,” then arched them over his head in the shape of an “O”), it wasn’t even original! Remember Oronde Gadsden, former wide receiver for the Dolphins circa 1996? Every time he caught a pass, he made the “O,” then a “G.” Yet one more reason why TOFU sucks.
I was going to have some picks for today, but I need to review the playoff implications for this weekend’s games and get back to you. Admittedly, Sunday could be entirely academic in the NFC if the Giants decide to show up in Washington on Saturday night.
Thursday, December 21, 2006
The Week 16 Picks
I’m going off the board here with a couple of Allen Iverson thoughts. One question I heard a lot this week was, “do you think the Sixers got a good deal?” Hard to say, seeing as there’s no way to know right now what will become of the two first round picks they got. It’s kind of up to Billy King at this point. But having three first round picks in the upcoming draft should go a long way towards rebuilding.
One thing I do know is that Allen will be missed, and not just Allen the basketball player. Too often he’s gotten a bad rap, and some of it deservedly so. But I wanted to take a chance to relay a touching story about A.I. About three years ago, my friend Tim was killed in an automobile accident. He was a manager at a car wash where many of the Sixers had their vehicles detailed. A.I. stopped in shortly after the accident and when he heard what had happened, on the spot he cut a $25,000 check to Tim’s daughter. That’s the A.I. I’ll remember. Good luck in Denver, Allen, and I hope you get the championship you deserve and covet.
I’m on the road tomorrow, so here’s the short short version of the Week 16 Picks.
Thursday, December 21st, 2006
The Match-up: Minnesota (+3.0) @ Green Bay
The Skinny: Rookie Tavaris Jackson gets the start at quarterback for the Vikings. They’re only playing for the future anyway.
Straight Up: Green Bay
Against the Spread: Green Bay
Saturday, December 23rd, 2006
The Match-up: Kansas City (-6.5) @ Oakland
The Skinny: If the Chiefs didn’t go from 7-4 to 7-7 over the last three weeks, do you think Larry Johnson would be complaining about the offense? Probably.
Straight Up: Kansas City
Against the Spread: Kansas City
Sunday, December 24th, 2006
The Match-up: Chicago (-4.5) @ Detroit
The Skinny: There’s a chance, now that the Bears have clinched home field in the NFC, that they take this game lightly. I don’t know if that’s enough help for the Lions.
Straight Up: Chicago
Against the Spread: Chicago
The Match-up: Washington (+2.0) @ Seattle
The Skinny: The Redskins looked pretty good last week in New Orleans.
Straight Up: Washington
Against the Spread: Washington
The Match-up: New Orleans (+3.0) @ New York Giants
The Skinny: Really? The Saints are getting three? I’ll take that.
Straight Up: New Orleans
Against the Spread: New Orleans
The Match-up: Baltimore (+3.0) @ Pittsburgh
The Skinny: Really? The Ravens are getting three? I don’t like that.
Straight Up: Pittsburgh
Against the Spread: Pittsburgh
The Match-up: Carolina (Off) @ Atlanta
The Skinny: One team has something to play for. The other is the Carolina Panthers.
Straight Up: Atlanta
Against the Spread: Atlanta
The Match-up: New England (+3.0) @ Jacksonville
The Skinny: Tom Brady should play with a chip on his shoulder after his Pro Bowl snub. One problem? Jacksonville’s defense at home is pretty good.
Straight Up: Jacksonville
Against the Spread: Jacksonville
The Match-up: Tennessee (+4.5) @ Buffalo
The Skinny: This is basically an elimination game, as both teams are in the AFC logjam at 7-7.
Straight Up: Buffalo
Against the Spread: Tennessee
The Match-up: Indianapolis (-9.0) @ Houston
The Skinny: If Monday night is any indication, the Colts are still very much a factor.
Straight Up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Indianapolis
The Match-up: Tampa Bay (+3.0) @ Cleveland
The Skinny: Tim Rattay threw for 268 yards and 3 touchdowns in basically a half against the Bears. He should make Cleveland’s defense look like a Pop Warner team.
Straight Up: Tampa Bay
Against the Spread: Tampa Bay
The Match-up: Arizona (+4.0) @ San Francisco
The Skinny: I’m going to go way out on a limb here – Frank Gore will be a top five fantasy back next year.
Straight Up: San Francisco
Against the Spread: San Francisco
The Match-up: Cincinnati (+3.0) @ Denver
The Skinny: Cincy’s playoff chances are on life support after the loss Monday in Indy. Jay Cutler could pull the plug this week.
Straight Up: Denver
Against the Spread: Denver
The Match-up: San Diego (-4.5) @ Seattle
The Skinny: Due to the fact that the Colts and Ravens keep winning, the Chargers need to keep pace to clinch home field in the AFC.
Straight Up: San Diego
Against the Spread: San Diego
Monday, December 11th, 2006
The Match-up: Philadelphia (+7.0) @ Dallas
The Skinny: My Christmas wish? The Eagles beat the Cowboys to take the lead in the NFC East, and Jeff Garcia spits on TOFU’s face on his way off the field. TOFU is such a piece of crap. He and the Cowboys are made for each other.
Straight Up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia
The Match-up: New York Jets (+2.5) @ Miami
The Skinny: This line is puzzling. Here are the Jets, with a legitimate shot at the post season, and they’re a dog in Miami? That should raise a red flag, but it doesn’t.
Straight Up: New York Jets
Against the Spread: New York Jets
One thing I do know is that Allen will be missed, and not just Allen the basketball player. Too often he’s gotten a bad rap, and some of it deservedly so. But I wanted to take a chance to relay a touching story about A.I. About three years ago, my friend Tim was killed in an automobile accident. He was a manager at a car wash where many of the Sixers had their vehicles detailed. A.I. stopped in shortly after the accident and when he heard what had happened, on the spot he cut a $25,000 check to Tim’s daughter. That’s the A.I. I’ll remember. Good luck in Denver, Allen, and I hope you get the championship you deserve and covet.
I’m on the road tomorrow, so here’s the short short version of the Week 16 Picks.
Thursday, December 21st, 2006
The Match-up: Minnesota (+3.0) @ Green Bay
The Skinny: Rookie Tavaris Jackson gets the start at quarterback for the Vikings. They’re only playing for the future anyway.
Straight Up: Green Bay
Against the Spread: Green Bay
Saturday, December 23rd, 2006
The Match-up: Kansas City (-6.5) @ Oakland
The Skinny: If the Chiefs didn’t go from 7-4 to 7-7 over the last three weeks, do you think Larry Johnson would be complaining about the offense? Probably.
Straight Up: Kansas City
Against the Spread: Kansas City
Sunday, December 24th, 2006
The Match-up: Chicago (-4.5) @ Detroit
The Skinny: There’s a chance, now that the Bears have clinched home field in the NFC, that they take this game lightly. I don’t know if that’s enough help for the Lions.
Straight Up: Chicago
Against the Spread: Chicago
The Match-up: Washington (+2.0) @ Seattle
The Skinny: The Redskins looked pretty good last week in New Orleans.
Straight Up: Washington
Against the Spread: Washington
The Match-up: New Orleans (+3.0) @ New York Giants
The Skinny: Really? The Saints are getting three? I’ll take that.
Straight Up: New Orleans
Against the Spread: New Orleans
The Match-up: Baltimore (+3.0) @ Pittsburgh
The Skinny: Really? The Ravens are getting three? I don’t like that.
Straight Up: Pittsburgh
Against the Spread: Pittsburgh
The Match-up: Carolina (Off) @ Atlanta
The Skinny: One team has something to play for. The other is the Carolina Panthers.
Straight Up: Atlanta
Against the Spread: Atlanta
The Match-up: New England (+3.0) @ Jacksonville
The Skinny: Tom Brady should play with a chip on his shoulder after his Pro Bowl snub. One problem? Jacksonville’s defense at home is pretty good.
Straight Up: Jacksonville
Against the Spread: Jacksonville
The Match-up: Tennessee (+4.5) @ Buffalo
The Skinny: This is basically an elimination game, as both teams are in the AFC logjam at 7-7.
Straight Up: Buffalo
Against the Spread: Tennessee
The Match-up: Indianapolis (-9.0) @ Houston
The Skinny: If Monday night is any indication, the Colts are still very much a factor.
Straight Up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Indianapolis
The Match-up: Tampa Bay (+3.0) @ Cleveland
The Skinny: Tim Rattay threw for 268 yards and 3 touchdowns in basically a half against the Bears. He should make Cleveland’s defense look like a Pop Warner team.
Straight Up: Tampa Bay
Against the Spread: Tampa Bay
The Match-up: Arizona (+4.0) @ San Francisco
The Skinny: I’m going to go way out on a limb here – Frank Gore will be a top five fantasy back next year.
Straight Up: San Francisco
Against the Spread: San Francisco
The Match-up: Cincinnati (+3.0) @ Denver
The Skinny: Cincy’s playoff chances are on life support after the loss Monday in Indy. Jay Cutler could pull the plug this week.
Straight Up: Denver
Against the Spread: Denver
The Match-up: San Diego (-4.5) @ Seattle
The Skinny: Due to the fact that the Colts and Ravens keep winning, the Chargers need to keep pace to clinch home field in the AFC.
Straight Up: San Diego
Against the Spread: San Diego
Monday, December 11th, 2006
The Match-up: Philadelphia (+7.0) @ Dallas
The Skinny: My Christmas wish? The Eagles beat the Cowboys to take the lead in the NFC East, and Jeff Garcia spits on TOFU’s face on his way off the field. TOFU is such a piece of crap. He and the Cowboys are made for each other.
Straight Up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia
The Match-up: New York Jets (+2.5) @ Miami
The Skinny: This line is puzzling. Here are the Jets, with a legitimate shot at the post season, and they’re a dog in Miami? That should raise a red flag, but it doesn’t.
Straight Up: New York Jets
Against the Spread: New York Jets
Saturday, December 16, 2006
The Week 15 Picks
Before we get to the Sunday games, a quick word about Kansas City Chiefs owner Lamar Hunt, who passed away at age 74 this week. Hunt was not only an owner, but an innovator and a visionary. He was instrumental in the AFL-NFL merger and coined the phrase "Super Bowl." But his contribution to sports were not limited to football. He helped launch Major League Soccer, the North American Soccer League, and a traveling tennis circuit. He was also a part-owner of the Chicago Bulls and collected six NBA championship rings. Hunt’s impact on the sports world will live on in his legacy, and he will be missed.
Anyway, it’s Saturday night, and instead of watching the Cowboys-Falcons game on TV, I’m trying to follow it on the computer. So far, the Eagles are not getting any help from Ron Mexico, who is 0-2 with an interception that was returned for a TD and has a mere 9 rushing yards.
Sunday, December 17th, 2006
The Match-up: Tampa Bay (+13.5) @ Chicago
The Skinny: I know Rex Grossman had a decent game in St. Louis on Monday, and with their defense and special teams (especially Devin Hester), all Grossman has to do is be decent.
Straight Up: Chicago
Against the Spread: Chicago
The Match-up: Pittsburgh (Off) @ Carolina
The Skinny: Since stumbling out of the gate at 2-6, the Steelers have won four of five and get Carolina at a time where they’re sinking like a stone in the ocean.
Straight Up: Pittsburgh
Against the Spread: Pittsburgh
The Match-up: Detroit (+5.0) @ Green Bay
The Skinny: The Packers have beaten the Lions in Green Bay fourteen straight times. Brett Favre has never lost to Detroit in Lambeau. And, the Lions are 0-6 on the road this season. The way the NFL has gone this year, I was actually tempted to take the Lions. But I didn’t.
Straight Up: Green Bay
Against the Spread: Green Bay
The Match-up: Cleveland (+11.0) @ Baltimore
The Skinny: My sleeper team for this year? Still asleep, apparently.
Straight Up: Baltimore
Against the Spread: Baltimore
The Match-up: Jacksonville (-3.5) @ Tennessee
The Skinny: Until he loses again, I’ll find it hard to go against Vince Young, even against a quality opponent like the Jaguars (who have struggled on the road this season).
Straight Up: Tennessee
Against the Spread: Tennessee
The Match-up: New York Jets (+3.0) @ Minnesota
The Skinny: I think the Jets may have gotten full of themselves with so many people putting them in the playoffs, because they forgot they had to play the game against Buffalo last week. I don’t think they’ll make the same mistake in Minnesota.
Straight Up: New York Jets
Against the Spread: New York Jets
The Match-up: Houston (+11.5) @ New England
The Skinny: I’d be willing to wager that, rather than leaking audio tapes to the Texans, that neither Brady nor Belichick spoke at all this week.
Straight Up: New England
Against the Spread: New England
The Match-up: Washington (+9.5) @ New Orleans
The Skinny: The only real challenger to LaDanian Tomlinson’s MVP award is Drew Brees. Could you imagine if these guys were on the same team?
Straight Up: New Orleans
Against the Spread: New Orleans
The Match-up: Miami (+1.0) @ Buffalo
The Skinny: Florida team in Buffalo in December? I’ll take the Bills.
Straight Up: Buffalo
Against the Spread: Buffalo
The Match-up: Denver (-2.5) @ Arizona
The Skinny: Colorado team in Arizona in December? I’ll take the Broncos.
Straight Up: Denver
Against the Spread: Denver
The Match-up: St. Louis (+2.5) @ Oakland
The Skinny: I don’t like the fact that the Raiders are actually favored in this game. This one may come back to get me.
Straight Up: St. Louis
Against the Spread: St. Louis
The Match-up: Philadelphia (+5.5) @ New York Giants
The Skinny: Credit the Eagles front office for learning from last year’s mistakes and bringing in a quality back-up quarterback to play behind Donovan McNabb. Jeff Garcia is a winner, and the Eagles could really benefit from a win over the Giants.
Straight Up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia
The Match-up: Kansas City (+8.5) @ San Diego
The Skinny: With my head (straight up) and my heart (against the spread).
Straight Up: San Diego
Against the Spread: Kansas City
Monday, December 18th, 2006
The Match-up: Cincinnati (+3.0) @ Indianapolis
The Skinny: This was my pre-season AFC championship game, and if not for the Chargers, it still might be.
Straight Up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Indianapolis
Anyway, it’s Saturday night, and instead of watching the Cowboys-Falcons game on TV, I’m trying to follow it on the computer. So far, the Eagles are not getting any help from Ron Mexico, who is 0-2 with an interception that was returned for a TD and has a mere 9 rushing yards.
Sunday, December 17th, 2006
The Match-up: Tampa Bay (+13.5) @ Chicago
The Skinny: I know Rex Grossman had a decent game in St. Louis on Monday, and with their defense and special teams (especially Devin Hester), all Grossman has to do is be decent.
Straight Up: Chicago
Against the Spread: Chicago
The Match-up: Pittsburgh (Off) @ Carolina
The Skinny: Since stumbling out of the gate at 2-6, the Steelers have won four of five and get Carolina at a time where they’re sinking like a stone in the ocean.
Straight Up: Pittsburgh
Against the Spread: Pittsburgh
The Match-up: Detroit (+5.0) @ Green Bay
The Skinny: The Packers have beaten the Lions in Green Bay fourteen straight times. Brett Favre has never lost to Detroit in Lambeau. And, the Lions are 0-6 on the road this season. The way the NFL has gone this year, I was actually tempted to take the Lions. But I didn’t.
Straight Up: Green Bay
Against the Spread: Green Bay
The Match-up: Cleveland (+11.0) @ Baltimore
The Skinny: My sleeper team for this year? Still asleep, apparently.
Straight Up: Baltimore
Against the Spread: Baltimore
The Match-up: Jacksonville (-3.5) @ Tennessee
The Skinny: Until he loses again, I’ll find it hard to go against Vince Young, even against a quality opponent like the Jaguars (who have struggled on the road this season).
Straight Up: Tennessee
Against the Spread: Tennessee
The Match-up: New York Jets (+3.0) @ Minnesota
The Skinny: I think the Jets may have gotten full of themselves with so many people putting them in the playoffs, because they forgot they had to play the game against Buffalo last week. I don’t think they’ll make the same mistake in Minnesota.
Straight Up: New York Jets
Against the Spread: New York Jets
The Match-up: Houston (+11.5) @ New England
The Skinny: I’d be willing to wager that, rather than leaking audio tapes to the Texans, that neither Brady nor Belichick spoke at all this week.
Straight Up: New England
Against the Spread: New England
The Match-up: Washington (+9.5) @ New Orleans
The Skinny: The only real challenger to LaDanian Tomlinson’s MVP award is Drew Brees. Could you imagine if these guys were on the same team?
Straight Up: New Orleans
Against the Spread: New Orleans
The Match-up: Miami (+1.0) @ Buffalo
The Skinny: Florida team in Buffalo in December? I’ll take the Bills.
Straight Up: Buffalo
Against the Spread: Buffalo
The Match-up: Denver (-2.5) @ Arizona
The Skinny: Colorado team in Arizona in December? I’ll take the Broncos.
Straight Up: Denver
Against the Spread: Denver
The Match-up: St. Louis (+2.5) @ Oakland
The Skinny: I don’t like the fact that the Raiders are actually favored in this game. This one may come back to get me.
Straight Up: St. Louis
Against the Spread: St. Louis
The Match-up: Philadelphia (+5.5) @ New York Giants
The Skinny: Credit the Eagles front office for learning from last year’s mistakes and bringing in a quality back-up quarterback to play behind Donovan McNabb. Jeff Garcia is a winner, and the Eagles could really benefit from a win over the Giants.
Straight Up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia
The Match-up: Kansas City (+8.5) @ San Diego
The Skinny: With my head (straight up) and my heart (against the spread).
Straight Up: San Diego
Against the Spread: Kansas City
Monday, December 18th, 2006
The Match-up: Cincinnati (+3.0) @ Indianapolis
The Skinny: This was my pre-season AFC championship game, and if not for the Chargers, it still might be.
Straight Up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Indianapolis
More Week 15
Back in college, I had a buddy we called “Thursday Night Dave.” We’d all go out on Thursday night, and when we returned to the dorm after more than a few pops, good old Dave would scour the building, pop in on some friends, pull the mattress out from under people that were sleeping. He even interrupted at least one, um, encounter? Basically, he’d wreak havoc to the point they put a sign in the lobby reading “It’s Thursday Night. Lock Your Door.” It was much fun for everybody (well, unless you were the guy sleeping on the mattress).
Why am I telling you this? Because I haven’t had a good Thursday night seemingly since college. These Thursday NFL games are killing me, causing me to start 0-1 every week. Maybe I’ll have better luck on Saturday.
Saturday, December 16, 2006
The Match-up: Dallas (-3.0) @ Atlanta
The Skinny: The Falcons are finally wising up to my idea (floated back in September) about playing Ron Mexico and back up Matt Schaub at the same time. Of course, they’re doing it out of necessity and not creativity. Hey, whatever the reason, I just hope it works.
Straight Up: Atlanta
Against the Spread: Atlanta
Why am I telling you this? Because I haven’t had a good Thursday night seemingly since college. These Thursday NFL games are killing me, causing me to start 0-1 every week. Maybe I’ll have better luck on Saturday.
Saturday, December 16, 2006
The Match-up: Dallas (-3.0) @ Atlanta
The Skinny: The Falcons are finally wising up to my idea (floated back in September) about playing Ron Mexico and back up Matt Schaub at the same time. Of course, they’re doing it out of necessity and not creativity. Hey, whatever the reason, I just hope it works.
Straight Up: Atlanta
Against the Spread: Atlanta
Thursday, December 14, 2006
The Start of Week 15
Remember my commentary on the depth of this year’s rookie class from a couple of weeks ago? Well it seems as though every week, another one comes crawling out of the woodwork. Two weeks ago, Carolina’s DeAngelo Williams put up big numbers against Philly on Monday night, and Jerrious Norwood of the Falcons torched the Redskins. Last week, Chicago’s Devin Hester set an NFL record with his sixth return touchdown of the year. So who’s next? LenDale White? Santonio Holmes? Hank Baskett? (Sorry, had to show a little love for my boy Hank).
Here’s an interesting little stat for you – with three weeks remaining in the season, an astonishing 25 of the league’s 32 teams are still mathematically alive for the playoffs, including both of tonight’s participants.
Thursday, December 14, 2006
The Match-up: San Francisco (+9.5) @ Seattle
The Skinny: I thought I had the Seahawks figured out, that is until they went and laid an egg in Arizona. But, I like them tonight for three reasons: 1) They can clinch the division with a win over Frisco; 2) They’re getting healthy again with Hasselbeck and Alexander back up to speed and Bobby Engram expected to return tonight; 3) The game is in Seattle, and the Seahawks are vastly better at home than on the road. That much I have figured out.
Straight Up: Seattle
Against the Spread: Seattle
Here’s an interesting little stat for you – with three weeks remaining in the season, an astonishing 25 of the league’s 32 teams are still mathematically alive for the playoffs, including both of tonight’s participants.
Thursday, December 14, 2006
The Match-up: San Francisco (+9.5) @ Seattle
The Skinny: I thought I had the Seahawks figured out, that is until they went and laid an egg in Arizona. But, I like them tonight for three reasons: 1) They can clinch the division with a win over Frisco; 2) They’re getting healthy again with Hasselbeck and Alexander back up to speed and Bobby Engram expected to return tonight; 3) The game is in Seattle, and the Seahawks are vastly better at home than on the road. That much I have figured out.
Straight Up: Seattle
Against the Spread: Seattle
Friday, December 08, 2006
The Week 14 Picks
Why are the next four weeks so intriguing? Because only one of the NFL’s twelve playoffs spots has been secured, and just about everybody is still in the running for the other eleven spots. The bottom line is, when the dust settles, there will be a few talented teams on the outside looking in.
Sunday, December 10th, 2006
The Match-up: Atlanta (-3.0) @ Tampa Bay
The Skinny: Ron Mexico always seems to save his biggest games for Tampa, and with the Falcons in the thick of the NFC Wild Card race, I’d expect nothing less from ol’ Double Barrel this week.
Straight Up: Atlanta
Against the Spread: Atlanta
The Match-up: Oakland (+11.0) @ Cincinnati
The Skinny: After Sunday, the Bengals take their playoff chances to Indy and Denver before getting Pittsburgh at home in the finale. Translation – they’d better take care f business against Oakland this week, or the next three may not matter.
Straight Up: Cincinnati
Against the Spread: Cincinnati
The Match-up: Philadelphia (-1.5) @ Washington
The Skinny: Speaking of tough stretch drives, the Eagles start their NFC East barnstorming tour this Sunday in the nation’s capital. The next three weeks will determine whether or not Jeff Garcia and the Eagles make it to the postseason. There’s a sentence I never thought I’d write.
Straight Up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia
The Match-up: New York Giants (Off) @ Carolina
The Skinny: Alright Panthers fans. You wanted Chris Weinke? You’ve got Chris Weinke. Jake Del-overrated is most likely out against the Giants this week, meaning Weinke will get his shot. Um, Chris, you may want to throw it to that Steve Smith guy on the outside. Just a suggestion.
Straight Up: New York Giants
Against the Spread: New York Giants
The Match-up: Minnesota (+2.5) @ Detroit
The Skinny: This game has some upset potential due to the fact that a) it’s in Detroit, b) Chester Taylor is out with a rib injury, and c) Brad Childress is actually considering benching Brad Johnson in favor of Brooks Bollinger. What in the name of Tony Romo is going on in this league?
Straight Up: Minnesota
Against the Spread: Minnesota
The Match-up: Indianapolis (-1.5) @ Jacksonville
The Skinny: Here’s an interesting stat – the Colts have not lost three consecutive games since 2001. They enter this game on a two-game losing streak. Something’s got to give, and that something may be Jacksonville’s fourth-ranked defense.
Straight Up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Indianapolis
The Match-up: Baltimore (+3.0) @ Kansas City
The Skinny: The Ravens are jockeying for home-field and a first round bye, plus their division rival Bengals are looking at an almost certain win over Oakland, so the Ravens will be motivated. Kansas City should be too, but they let a golden opportunity (and a 14-point lead) slip through their fingers in Cleveland a week ago.
Straight Up: Baltimore
Against the Spread: Baltimore
The Match-up: Tennessee (+1.5) @ Houston
The Skinny: Who’s hotter than the Titans? They’ve won five of their last seven, and Vince Young looks like the next big thing in this league. In case you haven’t heard it, like, a million times already this week, he’s a Houston native and the Texans could have selected him instead of Mario Williams in April’s draft.
Straight Up: Tennessee
Against the Spread: Tennessee
The Match-up: New England (-3.5) @ Miami
The Skinny: I know the Patriots have won four straight, but they’ve done so almost in spite of themselves. They’d better not sleep on the Dolphins in Miami, where New England has lost six of eight.
Straight Up: New England
Against the Spread: New England
The Match-up: Seattle (-3.0) @ Arizona
The Skinny: The Seahawks are getting healthy just in time to make a run in the NFC playoffs.
Straight Up: Seattle
Against the Spread: Seattle
The Match-up: Green Bay (+4.5) @ San Francisco
The Skinny: The NFC is so bad that the Packers are still mathematically alive for a post-season berth.
Straight Up: San Francisco
Against the Spread: Green Bay
The Match-up: Buffalo (+4.0) @ New York Jets
The Skinny: From the “Something’s Gotta Give” department, the Jets have won four straight home games against Buffalo, but haven’t swept the Bills in a season series since 2002.
Straight Up: New York Jets
Against the Spread: New York Jets
The Match-up: Denver (+7.5) @ San Diego
The Skinny: If you were Mike Shanahan, would you reverse gears and go back to Jake Plummer? Me neither. Jay Cutler may have struggled last week, but it’s not like Denver was going anywhere with The Snake anyway.
Straight Up: San Diego
Against the Spread: San Diego
The Match-up: New Orleans (+7.0) @ Dallas
The Skinny: Drew Brees has started to get some MVP buzz, and deservedly so. He may not be on pace to break Dan Marino’s single-season passing record, but the Saints are 8-4 and they’re 7-1 against NFC foes.
Straight Up: New Orleans
Against the Spread: New Orleans
Monday, December 11th, 2006
The Match-up: Chicago (-6.5) @ St. Louis
The Skinny: How good are Chicago’s defense and special teams? The Bears beat Minnesota last week in spite of Rex Grossman’s blood alcohol level-like quarterback rating of 1.3. Grossman has turned the ball over 18 times in the last seven games. The next thing he loses could be his job.
Straight Up: Chicago
Against the Spread: Chicago
Sunday, December 10th, 2006
The Match-up: Atlanta (-3.0) @ Tampa Bay
The Skinny: Ron Mexico always seems to save his biggest games for Tampa, and with the Falcons in the thick of the NFC Wild Card race, I’d expect nothing less from ol’ Double Barrel this week.
Straight Up: Atlanta
Against the Spread: Atlanta
The Match-up: Oakland (+11.0) @ Cincinnati
The Skinny: After Sunday, the Bengals take their playoff chances to Indy and Denver before getting Pittsburgh at home in the finale. Translation – they’d better take care f business against Oakland this week, or the next three may not matter.
Straight Up: Cincinnati
Against the Spread: Cincinnati
The Match-up: Philadelphia (-1.5) @ Washington
The Skinny: Speaking of tough stretch drives, the Eagles start their NFC East barnstorming tour this Sunday in the nation’s capital. The next three weeks will determine whether or not Jeff Garcia and the Eagles make it to the postseason. There’s a sentence I never thought I’d write.
Straight Up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia
The Match-up: New York Giants (Off) @ Carolina
The Skinny: Alright Panthers fans. You wanted Chris Weinke? You’ve got Chris Weinke. Jake Del-overrated is most likely out against the Giants this week, meaning Weinke will get his shot. Um, Chris, you may want to throw it to that Steve Smith guy on the outside. Just a suggestion.
Straight Up: New York Giants
Against the Spread: New York Giants
The Match-up: Minnesota (+2.5) @ Detroit
The Skinny: This game has some upset potential due to the fact that a) it’s in Detroit, b) Chester Taylor is out with a rib injury, and c) Brad Childress is actually considering benching Brad Johnson in favor of Brooks Bollinger. What in the name of Tony Romo is going on in this league?
Straight Up: Minnesota
Against the Spread: Minnesota
The Match-up: Indianapolis (-1.5) @ Jacksonville
The Skinny: Here’s an interesting stat – the Colts have not lost three consecutive games since 2001. They enter this game on a two-game losing streak. Something’s got to give, and that something may be Jacksonville’s fourth-ranked defense.
Straight Up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Indianapolis
The Match-up: Baltimore (+3.0) @ Kansas City
The Skinny: The Ravens are jockeying for home-field and a first round bye, plus their division rival Bengals are looking at an almost certain win over Oakland, so the Ravens will be motivated. Kansas City should be too, but they let a golden opportunity (and a 14-point lead) slip through their fingers in Cleveland a week ago.
Straight Up: Baltimore
Against the Spread: Baltimore
The Match-up: Tennessee (+1.5) @ Houston
The Skinny: Who’s hotter than the Titans? They’ve won five of their last seven, and Vince Young looks like the next big thing in this league. In case you haven’t heard it, like, a million times already this week, he’s a Houston native and the Texans could have selected him instead of Mario Williams in April’s draft.
Straight Up: Tennessee
Against the Spread: Tennessee
The Match-up: New England (-3.5) @ Miami
The Skinny: I know the Patriots have won four straight, but they’ve done so almost in spite of themselves. They’d better not sleep on the Dolphins in Miami, where New England has lost six of eight.
Straight Up: New England
Against the Spread: New England
The Match-up: Seattle (-3.0) @ Arizona
The Skinny: The Seahawks are getting healthy just in time to make a run in the NFC playoffs.
Straight Up: Seattle
Against the Spread: Seattle
The Match-up: Green Bay (+4.5) @ San Francisco
The Skinny: The NFC is so bad that the Packers are still mathematically alive for a post-season berth.
Straight Up: San Francisco
Against the Spread: Green Bay
The Match-up: Buffalo (+4.0) @ New York Jets
The Skinny: From the “Something’s Gotta Give” department, the Jets have won four straight home games against Buffalo, but haven’t swept the Bills in a season series since 2002.
Straight Up: New York Jets
Against the Spread: New York Jets
The Match-up: Denver (+7.5) @ San Diego
The Skinny: If you were Mike Shanahan, would you reverse gears and go back to Jake Plummer? Me neither. Jay Cutler may have struggled last week, but it’s not like Denver was going anywhere with The Snake anyway.
Straight Up: San Diego
Against the Spread: San Diego
The Match-up: New Orleans (+7.0) @ Dallas
The Skinny: Drew Brees has started to get some MVP buzz, and deservedly so. He may not be on pace to break Dan Marino’s single-season passing record, but the Saints are 8-4 and they’re 7-1 against NFC foes.
Straight Up: New Orleans
Against the Spread: New Orleans
Monday, December 11th, 2006
The Match-up: Chicago (-6.5) @ St. Louis
The Skinny: How good are Chicago’s defense and special teams? The Bears beat Minnesota last week in spite of Rex Grossman’s blood alcohol level-like quarterback rating of 1.3. Grossman has turned the ball over 18 times in the last seven games. The next thing he loses could be his job.
Straight Up: Chicago
Against the Spread: Chicago
Thursday, December 07, 2006
The Week 13.5 Pick
A quick announcement in the wake of Monday night’s Eagles-Panthers game: Going forward, Jake Delhomme will be known as Jake Del-overrated.
Panther Nation has grown tired of his late-game blunders and they’ve been calling for John Fox to yank him in favor of Chris Weinke, hoping he’ll provide a Romo-esque spark. Two things warrant mentioning here. One, Chris Weinke is not Tony Romo, nor should similar results be expected. Two, the Panthers have held a fourth quarter lead in five of their six losses, meaning they could, in theory, be 11-1 instead of 6-6. Del-overrated has turned it over at Grossman-like levels in more than one of those losses. Despite this, pulling him now might not be the best solution (see point number one).
As for today, it’s another Thursday with another NFL game that exactly five people will get to watch. Needless to say, I will not be one of them.
Thursday, December 7, 2006
The Match-up: Cleveland (+7.5) @ Pittsburgh
The Skinny: Both teams come in decimated by injuries, as the Steelers may be without notables Hines Ward and Troy Polamalu, and the Browns could be forced to start Derek Anderson at quarterback in place of Charlie Frye. It was Anderson who led a fourth quarter rally against KC last week that ended up with the Browns winning in overtime. Could we be looking at yet ANOTHER quarterback controversy?
Straight Up: Pittsburgh
Against the Spread: Cleveland
Panther Nation has grown tired of his late-game blunders and they’ve been calling for John Fox to yank him in favor of Chris Weinke, hoping he’ll provide a Romo-esque spark. Two things warrant mentioning here. One, Chris Weinke is not Tony Romo, nor should similar results be expected. Two, the Panthers have held a fourth quarter lead in five of their six losses, meaning they could, in theory, be 11-1 instead of 6-6. Del-overrated has turned it over at Grossman-like levels in more than one of those losses. Despite this, pulling him now might not be the best solution (see point number one).
As for today, it’s another Thursday with another NFL game that exactly five people will get to watch. Needless to say, I will not be one of them.
Thursday, December 7, 2006
The Match-up: Cleveland (+7.5) @ Pittsburgh
The Skinny: Both teams come in decimated by injuries, as the Steelers may be without notables Hines Ward and Troy Polamalu, and the Browns could be forced to start Derek Anderson at quarterback in place of Charlie Frye. It was Anderson who led a fourth quarter rally against KC last week that ended up with the Browns winning in overtime. Could we be looking at yet ANOTHER quarterback controversy?
Straight Up: Pittsburgh
Against the Spread: Cleveland
Friday, December 01, 2006
The Week 13 Picks
Here we go again.
Another poor Thursday showing has The Kid starting from behind the eight ball in Week 13. Last week, we were done in by the Lions and Bucs on Thanksgiving, and last night the Bengals defense decided to show up to keep the Ravens from clinching the North.
What’s worse, I traded for a Cincinnati wide receiver this week. Chad Johnson (eight catches for 91 yards)? Nope. T.J. Hoochie-mama (ten for 106 and a TD)? No. Chris Henry (no catches, no yards, zero Fantasy points)? You guessed it.
Luckily this season, I’ve gained valuable experience at swimming upstream, skiing uphill, playing from behind. And I’m sure that trend will continue through December.
Sunday, December 3rd, 2006
The Match-up: Arizona (+6.5) @ St. Louis
The Skinny: Why would Pete Carroll want to leave a football factory like USC to take the Cardinals job (which, by the way, is still not technically available)?
Straight Up: St. Louis
Against the Spread: St. Louis
The Match-up: Detroit (+13.5) @ New England
The Skinny: The Patriots have had their way with the rest of the NFC North, why not the Lions?
Straight Up: New England
Against the Spread: New England
The Match-up: San Diego (-6.0) @ Buffalo
The Skinny: While San Diego is clearly the better team (led by the best offensive player in the league), a California team in Buffalo in December could be in for a rude awakening. I like the Chargers, but not by much.
Straight Up: San Diego
Against the Spread: Buffalo
The Match-up: San Francisco (+7.0) @ New Orleans
The Skinny: Another virtual elimination game for the Saints, who are still in the thick of the NFC playoff race and can ill-afford a loss.
Straight Up: New Orleans
Against the Spread: New Orleans
The Match-up: Minnesota (+9.0) @ Chicago
The Skinny: Rex Grossman’s grip on the starting quarterback job is slipping. Paging Brian Griese!
Straight Up: Chicago
Against the Spread: Chicago
The Match-up: Kansas City (-5.0) @ Cleveland
The Skinny: The Browns are the latest team to suffer from internal strife, with Charlie Frye and Braylon Edwards nearly going at each other on the sideline last week. And with Larry Johnson running the ball, the sideline is where Frye and Edwards will spend most of Sunday afternoon.
Straight Up: Kansas City
Against the Spread: Kansas City
The Match-up: Atlanta (+2.0) @ Washington
The Skinny: Watch out for Ron “Double Barrel” Mexico and the Falcons to rebound this week in D.C.
Straight Up: Atlanta
Against the Spread: Atlanta
The Match-up: New York Jets (-1.5) @ Green Bay
The Skinny: I’ve flip-flopped on this one a few times, but I’ve got a hunch that the Packers will play for sixty minutes at home like they did for the first thirty in Seattle on Monday.
Straight Up: Green Bay
Against the Spread: Green Bay
The Match-up: Indianapolis (-7.5) @ Tennessee
The Skinny: Peyton Manning may have more fans in Tennessee that in Indianapolis. The Titans, meanwhile, may have used up all of their good karma in their amazing comeback last week.
Straight Up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Indianapolis
The Match-up: Houston (+3.0) @ Oakland
The Skinny: The Raiders fired their offensive coordinator this week. It warrants mentioning that the guy was managing a bed and breakfast a year ago. No telling whether or not Al Davis is going to hire the Maitre D from IHOP as his replacement.
Straight Up: Oakland
Against the Spread: Oakland
The Match-up: Jacksonville (+1.5) @ Miami
The Skinny: I know the Jags have struggled on the road this year, and they’ll have a tough task against the Dolphins in Miami. But Jacksonville seems to play to the level of their competition and should do so again.
Straight Up: Jacksonville
Against the Spread: Jacksonville
The Match-up: Dallas (-3.5) @ New York Giants
The Skinny: Here’s hoping we can stop all the “Tony Romo is the next Roger Staubach” nonsense. I’d like nothing more than to see the Giants plant him next to Jimmy Hoffa in the Meadowlands turf.
Straight Up: New York Giants
Against the Spread: New York Giants
The Match-up: Tampa Bay (+7.0) @ Pittsburgh
The Skinny: Much like Carroll downplaying rumors about leaving USC for the NFL, I don’t see any reason why Bill Cowher would leave Pittsburgh for N.C. State.
Straight Up: Pittsburgh
Against the Spread: Pittsburgh
The Match-up: Seattle (+3.0) @ Denver
The Skinny: Last week’s Sunday night affair was a coming out party for rookie Joseph Addai. This week could be the same for new Broncos quarterback Jay Cutler.
Straight Up: Denver
Against the Spread: Denver
Monday, December 4th, 2006
The Match-up: Carolina (Off) @ Philadelphia
The Skinny: One of these teams needs to show some heart and effort and prove that they can still make a run to the playoffs. I think you know who I’m talking about…
Straight Up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia
Another poor Thursday showing has The Kid starting from behind the eight ball in Week 13. Last week, we were done in by the Lions and Bucs on Thanksgiving, and last night the Bengals defense decided to show up to keep the Ravens from clinching the North.
What’s worse, I traded for a Cincinnati wide receiver this week. Chad Johnson (eight catches for 91 yards)? Nope. T.J. Hoochie-mama (ten for 106 and a TD)? No. Chris Henry (no catches, no yards, zero Fantasy points)? You guessed it.
Luckily this season, I’ve gained valuable experience at swimming upstream, skiing uphill, playing from behind. And I’m sure that trend will continue through December.
Sunday, December 3rd, 2006
The Match-up: Arizona (+6.5) @ St. Louis
The Skinny: Why would Pete Carroll want to leave a football factory like USC to take the Cardinals job (which, by the way, is still not technically available)?
Straight Up: St. Louis
Against the Spread: St. Louis
The Match-up: Detroit (+13.5) @ New England
The Skinny: The Patriots have had their way with the rest of the NFC North, why not the Lions?
Straight Up: New England
Against the Spread: New England
The Match-up: San Diego (-6.0) @ Buffalo
The Skinny: While San Diego is clearly the better team (led by the best offensive player in the league), a California team in Buffalo in December could be in for a rude awakening. I like the Chargers, but not by much.
Straight Up: San Diego
Against the Spread: Buffalo
The Match-up: San Francisco (+7.0) @ New Orleans
The Skinny: Another virtual elimination game for the Saints, who are still in the thick of the NFC playoff race and can ill-afford a loss.
Straight Up: New Orleans
Against the Spread: New Orleans
The Match-up: Minnesota (+9.0) @ Chicago
The Skinny: Rex Grossman’s grip on the starting quarterback job is slipping. Paging Brian Griese!
Straight Up: Chicago
Against the Spread: Chicago
The Match-up: Kansas City (-5.0) @ Cleveland
The Skinny: The Browns are the latest team to suffer from internal strife, with Charlie Frye and Braylon Edwards nearly going at each other on the sideline last week. And with Larry Johnson running the ball, the sideline is where Frye and Edwards will spend most of Sunday afternoon.
Straight Up: Kansas City
Against the Spread: Kansas City
The Match-up: Atlanta (+2.0) @ Washington
The Skinny: Watch out for Ron “Double Barrel” Mexico and the Falcons to rebound this week in D.C.
Straight Up: Atlanta
Against the Spread: Atlanta
The Match-up: New York Jets (-1.5) @ Green Bay
The Skinny: I’ve flip-flopped on this one a few times, but I’ve got a hunch that the Packers will play for sixty minutes at home like they did for the first thirty in Seattle on Monday.
Straight Up: Green Bay
Against the Spread: Green Bay
The Match-up: Indianapolis (-7.5) @ Tennessee
The Skinny: Peyton Manning may have more fans in Tennessee that in Indianapolis. The Titans, meanwhile, may have used up all of their good karma in their amazing comeback last week.
Straight Up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Indianapolis
The Match-up: Houston (+3.0) @ Oakland
The Skinny: The Raiders fired their offensive coordinator this week. It warrants mentioning that the guy was managing a bed and breakfast a year ago. No telling whether or not Al Davis is going to hire the Maitre D from IHOP as his replacement.
Straight Up: Oakland
Against the Spread: Oakland
The Match-up: Jacksonville (+1.5) @ Miami
The Skinny: I know the Jags have struggled on the road this year, and they’ll have a tough task against the Dolphins in Miami. But Jacksonville seems to play to the level of their competition and should do so again.
Straight Up: Jacksonville
Against the Spread: Jacksonville
The Match-up: Dallas (-3.5) @ New York Giants
The Skinny: Here’s hoping we can stop all the “Tony Romo is the next Roger Staubach” nonsense. I’d like nothing more than to see the Giants plant him next to Jimmy Hoffa in the Meadowlands turf.
Straight Up: New York Giants
Against the Spread: New York Giants
The Match-up: Tampa Bay (+7.0) @ Pittsburgh
The Skinny: Much like Carroll downplaying rumors about leaving USC for the NFL, I don’t see any reason why Bill Cowher would leave Pittsburgh for N.C. State.
Straight Up: Pittsburgh
Against the Spread: Pittsburgh
The Match-up: Seattle (+3.0) @ Denver
The Skinny: Last week’s Sunday night affair was a coming out party for rookie Joseph Addai. This week could be the same for new Broncos quarterback Jay Cutler.
Straight Up: Denver
Against the Spread: Denver
Monday, December 4th, 2006
The Match-up: Carolina (Off) @ Philadelphia
The Skinny: One of these teams needs to show some heart and effort and prove that they can still make a run to the playoffs. I think you know who I’m talking about…
Straight Up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia
Thursday, November 30, 2006
Rookies of the Year? More like "Year of the Rookies"
2006 certainly is shaping up as the year of the rookie. I mean, look at some of the names, numbers, and impact these guys have had in Year One of their NFL lives:
Joseph Addai (IND): 1,023 total yards, 8 TD
Mark Anderson (CHI): 8 sacks
Reggie Bush (NO): 956 all-purpose yards, 2 TD
Marques Colston (NO): 869 receiving yards, 7 TD
Tamba Hali (KC): 5.5 sacks, 5 forced fumbles
Maurice Jones-Drew (JAX): 771 total yards, 8 TD
Matt Leinart (ARI): 1,753 passing yards, 9 TD
Laurence Maroney (NE): 798 total yards, 5 TD
DeMeco Ryans (HOU): 99 tackles
Vince Young (TEN): 1,617 total yards, 12 TD
What’s more amazing is that only Bush, Young, and Leinart were drafted in the top ten in April. The depth of the draft feeds into the NFL’s desired parity, meaning any team can instantly become a contender if they do their homework and draft well. And that Mel Kiper Jr. is flat-out stealing a paycheck from ESPN.
We may look back at the class of 2006 as one of the best ever.
This is the second week of the NFL Network’s Thursday night broadcasts, and I’ve got to say I’ve got a love/hate relationship with the NFL Network. While I love the concept of a network devoted solely to professional football, I hate the fact that I would have to pony up a bunch of cash for DirecTV simply to get the NFL Network. As popular as the NFL is, I’m sure there are a bunch of financially-sound individuals (myself included) that are not going to incur the extra expense to catch a couple of additional games. Hopefully, the NFL and cable providers can reach an agreement that would allow the network to be more readily available. In the meantime, we’ll just pick ‘em today and read about ‘em later.
Thursday, November 30, 2006
The Match-up: Baltimore (+3.0) @ Cincinnati
The Skinny: For the Ravens, the concept is simple – win and clinch the AFC north. Execution of that concept, despite the fact that Cincinnati’s defense is among the worst statistically in the league, will be more difficult. Vegas thinks so, too. That’s why the Bengals are favored. Personally, I don’t see it, and I think the Ravens will continue their physicality on offense and beat the Bengals into submission.
Straight Up: Baltimore
Against the Spread: Baltimore
Joseph Addai (IND): 1,023 total yards, 8 TD
Mark Anderson (CHI): 8 sacks
Reggie Bush (NO): 956 all-purpose yards, 2 TD
Marques Colston (NO): 869 receiving yards, 7 TD
Tamba Hali (KC): 5.5 sacks, 5 forced fumbles
Maurice Jones-Drew (JAX): 771 total yards, 8 TD
Matt Leinart (ARI): 1,753 passing yards, 9 TD
Laurence Maroney (NE): 798 total yards, 5 TD
DeMeco Ryans (HOU): 99 tackles
Vince Young (TEN): 1,617 total yards, 12 TD
What’s more amazing is that only Bush, Young, and Leinart were drafted in the top ten in April. The depth of the draft feeds into the NFL’s desired parity, meaning any team can instantly become a contender if they do their homework and draft well. And that Mel Kiper Jr. is flat-out stealing a paycheck from ESPN.
We may look back at the class of 2006 as one of the best ever.
This is the second week of the NFL Network’s Thursday night broadcasts, and I’ve got to say I’ve got a love/hate relationship with the NFL Network. While I love the concept of a network devoted solely to professional football, I hate the fact that I would have to pony up a bunch of cash for DirecTV simply to get the NFL Network. As popular as the NFL is, I’m sure there are a bunch of financially-sound individuals (myself included) that are not going to incur the extra expense to catch a couple of additional games. Hopefully, the NFL and cable providers can reach an agreement that would allow the network to be more readily available. In the meantime, we’ll just pick ‘em today and read about ‘em later.
Thursday, November 30, 2006
The Match-up: Baltimore (+3.0) @ Cincinnati
The Skinny: For the Ravens, the concept is simple – win and clinch the AFC north. Execution of that concept, despite the fact that Cincinnati’s defense is among the worst statistically in the league, will be more difficult. Vegas thinks so, too. That’s why the Bengals are favored. Personally, I don’t see it, and I think the Ravens will continue their physicality on offense and beat the Bengals into submission.
Straight Up: Baltimore
Against the Spread: Baltimore
Friday, November 24, 2006
Leftovers - The Rest of the Week 12 Picks
One of my favorite things about Thanksgiving? Leftovers. There’s nothing better than an open-faced turkey sandwich, re-heated mashed potatoes, and Mom’s homemade stuffing. There are some leftover football games to opine on as well, so I’ll put the fork down temporarily and take care of the business at hand.
A quick note before I go on – I know that Michigan beat Notre Dame by 26 points in South Bend in September. And it certainly appears as thought nobody is beating Ohio State this year. But if the Irish can go out to The Coliseum tomorrow night and beat USC, it wouldn’t surprise me to see the Irish in the BCS National Championship game. Would that be fair? That’s debatable. What’s not debatable is the old college football adage: When you lose matters. Notre Dame’s loss to the Wolverines occurred many, many moons ago, and a win over USC would be fresh in the voters’ minds. Basically, tomorrow night is the season for Touchdown Charlie and the Irish. Here’s a bonus pick for you this week. Notre Dame 24, USC 20. Bring on the Buckeyes!
A quick note before I go on – I know that Michigan beat Notre Dame by 26 points in South Bend in September. And it certainly appears as thought nobody is beating Ohio State this year. But if the Irish can go out to The Coliseum tomorrow night and beat USC, it wouldn’t surprise me to see the Irish in the BCS National Championship game. Would that be fair? That’s debatable. What’s not debatable is the old college football adage: When you lose matters. Notre Dame’s loss to the Wolverines occurred many, many moons ago, and a win over USC would be fresh in the voters’ minds. Basically, tomorrow night is the season for Touchdown Charlie and the Irish. Here’s a bonus pick for you this week. Notre Dame 24, USC 20. Bring on the Buckeyes!
Sunday, November 26th, 2006
The Match-up: Pittsburgh (+3.0) @ Baltimore
The Skinny: The Ravens come into this game with a 4-0 record and a re-commitment to the ground game since Brian Billick fired Jim Fassel and took over the play-calling duties. Perhaps the Steelers should be taking notes.
Straight Up: Baltimore
Against the Spread: Baltimore
The Match-up: Cincinnati (–3.0) @ Cleveland
The Skinny: Ocho Cinco is white hot, putting up ridiculous numbers (450 yards, 5 TD) in his last two games. LaDanian Tomlinson thinks Ocho is on a roll.
Straight Up: Cleveland
Against the Spread: Cleveland
The Match-up: San Francisco (+5.5) @ St. Louis
The Skinny: The 49ers are 5-5 and in the NFC playoff race, which should tell you all you need to know about the strength of the NFC. The NFL calls it “parity.” I call it the JV.
Straight Up: St. Louis
Against the Spread: St. Louis
The Match-up: Arizona (+6.0) @ Minnesota
The Skinny: It’s old home week in the NFC North. Joey Harrington led Miami to a win over his old Lions mates yesterday, and Denny Green and the Cardinals head to the Homerdome to take on the Vikings. Green may be able to spend a lot of time in the Land of Lakes come January.
Straight Up: Minnesota
Against the Spread: Minnesota
The Match-up: Houston (+6.0) @ New York Jets
The Skinny: I was intrigued to see that the Texans amassed 188 rushing yards against the Bills a week ago, and the Jets have allowed a minimum of 125 yards per game for the last nine. Not intriguing enough to pick the Texans, however, as the game is in the swamps of Jersey and Houston is 1-4 on the road.
Straight Up: New York Jets
Against the Spread: New York Jets
The Match-up: New Orleans (+3.0) @ Atlanta
The Skinny: The loser is all but eliminated from the NFC playoffs.
Straight Up: New Orleans
Against the Spread: New Orleans
The Match-up: Carolina (–4.0) @ Washington
The Skinny: Nice debut for Jason Campbell last week. Not a winning one, but still, Campbell looks like an upgrade over Mark Brunell. With the Falcons or Saints guaranteed to lose, the Panthers could grab a stranglehold on the NFC South.
Straight Up: Carolina
Against the Spread: Carolina
The Match-up: Jacksonville (–3.0) @ Buffalo
The Skinny: I know the Jags are hot (4-1 in their last five), but they’re 1-3 non the road and their defense surrenders almost fifty yards and nine points per game more on the road than at home. Gotta play the odds.
Straight Up: Buffalo
Against the Spread: Buffalo
The Match-up: Oakland (+13.0) @ San Diego
The Skinny: On the first Monday night of the season, the Chargers beat the Raiders 31-0 in Oakland. They meet again in San Diego. And the Chargers look even better than they did that night. And if possible, the Raiders look worse. Hmmm…
Straight Up: San Diego
Against the Spread: San Diego
The Match-up: New York Giants (–3.0) @ Tennessee
The Skinny: Tiki Barber is the latest Giant to express his issues with Tom Coughlin. Why? He’s hands down their best player, and he only touched the ball ten times on Monday night. No wonder they lost. And no wonder Tiki’s pissed.
Straight Up: New York Giants
Against the Spread: New York Giants
The Match-up: Chicago (+3.0) @ New England
The Skinny: The Bears could clinch the NFC North with a win over New England and losses by Minnesota and Green Bay. I only see one of those three things happening, meaning the Bears will have to clinch another day.
Straight Up: New England
Against the Spread: New England
The Match-up: Philadelphia (+9.0) @ Indianapolis
The Skinny: Remember in 2002 when Donovan McNabb broke his leg and everybody thought the Eagles were done? Wrong. Koy Detmer and A.J. Feeley led the Birds to a 5-1 record down the stretch. Now McNabb is down again, and everyone’s doubting Philly. But at 5-5, they’re still alive in the playoff race, and they could hand the reins to none other than…A.J. Feeley! Those who ignore history are doomed to repeat it.
Straight Up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia
The Match-up: Green Bay (+9.5) @ Seattle
The Skinny: Again, it’s old home week in the NFC North. Green Bay and former Seahawk Ahman Green heads to Seattle where former Packers Mike Holmgren and Matt Hasselbeck are waiting. Remember when Favre on Monday night was a lock?
Straight Up: Seattle
Wednesday, November 22, 2006
Going Back for Thirds...The Thanksgiving Day Picks
First, there was the Sports Illustrated cover jinx.
Then came the Madden Curse and the Super Bowl Loser curse.
Could there be such a thing as the NBC Flex Schedule curse?
When NBC signed on to broadcast NFL games, they petitioned to have the ability to choose a desirable game to show to a national audience. This means, no more pre-planned Browns at Cardinals on Sunday night.
But the flex scheduling may have upset the Football Gods. When NBC selected this weekend’s game, it was slated as a match-up between the undefeated Indianapolis Colts, chasing the ’72 Dolphins and NFL immortality, and the Philadelphia Eagles, led by superstar quarterback Donovan McNabb, who is putting up MVP-caliber numbers.
Oops.
Now NBC will televise the once-defeated Colts who suddenly don’t even look like the best team in the AFC let alone NFL history, and an Eagles offense piloted by either Jeff Garcia or A.J. Feeley.
If such a curse exists, I implore NBC to flex their corporate muscle and put the Dallas Cowboys on a Sunday night in the very near future.
As for tomorrow’s games, I have a tradition by which I always pick the Lions and whoever is playing Dallas. No sense in changing now.
Thursday, November 23rd. 2006
The Match-up: Miami (-3.0) @ Detroit
The Skinny: Surprisingly, Joey Harrington’s return to Detroit is receiving very little fanfare. Should be just like his Lions playing career.
Straight Up: Detroit
Against the Spread: Detroit
The Match-up: Tampa Bay (+11.0) @ Dallas
The Skinny: Maybe Tony Homo will get food poisoning and miss the game, relegating him to back-up status.
Straight Up: Tampa Bay
Against the Spread: Tampa Bay
The Match-up: Denver (-1.0) @ Kansas City
The Skinny: I’ll be the first to admit that I was wrong in thinking the Broncos wouldn’t cough up a big lead like they did against San Diego last week. Either the Chargers are really that good, or Denver’s defense might have been exposed. The truth probably lies somewhere in between.
Straight Up: Kansas City
Against the Spread: Kansas City
Then came the Madden Curse and the Super Bowl Loser curse.
Could there be such a thing as the NBC Flex Schedule curse?
When NBC signed on to broadcast NFL games, they petitioned to have the ability to choose a desirable game to show to a national audience. This means, no more pre-planned Browns at Cardinals on Sunday night.
But the flex scheduling may have upset the Football Gods. When NBC selected this weekend’s game, it was slated as a match-up between the undefeated Indianapolis Colts, chasing the ’72 Dolphins and NFL immortality, and the Philadelphia Eagles, led by superstar quarterback Donovan McNabb, who is putting up MVP-caliber numbers.
Oops.
Now NBC will televise the once-defeated Colts who suddenly don’t even look like the best team in the AFC let alone NFL history, and an Eagles offense piloted by either Jeff Garcia or A.J. Feeley.
If such a curse exists, I implore NBC to flex their corporate muscle and put the Dallas Cowboys on a Sunday night in the very near future.
As for tomorrow’s games, I have a tradition by which I always pick the Lions and whoever is playing Dallas. No sense in changing now.
Thursday, November 23rd. 2006
The Match-up: Miami (-3.0) @ Detroit
The Skinny: Surprisingly, Joey Harrington’s return to Detroit is receiving very little fanfare. Should be just like his Lions playing career.
Straight Up: Detroit
Against the Spread: Detroit
The Match-up: Tampa Bay (+11.0) @ Dallas
The Skinny: Maybe Tony Homo will get food poisoning and miss the game, relegating him to back-up status.
Straight Up: Tampa Bay
Against the Spread: Tampa Bay
The Match-up: Denver (-1.0) @ Kansas City
The Skinny: I’ll be the first to admit that I was wrong in thinking the Broncos wouldn’t cough up a big lead like they did against San Diego last week. Either the Chargers are really that good, or Denver’s defense might have been exposed. The truth probably lies somewhere in between.
Straight Up: Kansas City
Against the Spread: Kansas City
Thursday, November 16, 2006
The Week 11 Picks
Apologies for the brevity of this column, however it’s a getaway day for The Kid.
While I’m thinking about it, the annual "Thanksgiving Day Deuce" will be coming to you live from my old stomping grounds, and chances are I'll be all hopped up on Pudge's cheese steaks, Rosenberger's lemon iced tea, and of course Mom's spaghetti and meatballs (easily the best in the world). Not to get ahead of myself, but I like the third game on turkey day, even if it does render the title of The Deuce obsolete. I guess I’ll have to come up with something new.
Sunday, November 19th, 2006
The Match-up: St. Louis (+7.0) @ Carolina
The Skinny: Monday night was a microcosm of the Panthers’ season – brutal first half, strong second half. Carolina is suddenly only a game back in the NFC South, and New Orleans and Atlanta both look vulnerable. The Panthers seem poised to go on a run and become the Super Bowl contender everyone thought they would be.
Straight Up: Carolina
Against the Spread: Carolina
The Match-up: New England (-5.5) @ Green Bay
The Skinny: Brett Favre must be excited that Vinny Testaverde is back in the league. Now Favre doesn’t seem so old.
Straight Up: New England
Against the Spread: New England
The Match-up: Atlanta (+4.0) @ Baltimore
The Skinny: Why do I get the funny feeling that Ron Mexico will re-emerge this week and get back to being that guy who played so well a few weeks ago? They may not win it, but they’ll be in it.
Straight Up: Baltimore
Against the Spread: Atlanta
The Match-up: Oakland (+9.5) @ Kansas City
The Skinny: Props to Herm Edwards for having the wherewithal to bring Trent Green back for a scrimmage. Wait, you mean this game counts? Somebody better tell Randy Moss. Maybe he’ll actually show up.
Straight Up: Kansas City
Against the Spread: Oakland
The Match-up: Buffalo (+2.5) @ Houston
The Skinny: The Bills actually gave the Colts a scare last week, but fell short. Set up for a let-down against Houston? That might explain why the Texans are favored.
Straight Up: Houston
Against the Spread: Houston
The Match-up: Minnesota (+3.5) @ Miami
The Skinny: It’s the first ever Daunte Culpepper Bowl! I know Culpepper doesn’t play for the Vikings anymore, but the way they’ve collapsed it seems like he never left.
Straight Up: Miami
Against the Spread: Miami
The Match-up: Cincinnati (+3.5) @ New Orleans
The Skinny: I think both of these teams have been exposed on defense of late. The Saints blew a halftime lead and gave up 38 to the Steelers in the ‘burgh. Cincinnati, meanwhile, came from 21 ahead to lose to San Diego. Could either of these defenses, I don’t know, defend?
Straight Up: Cincinnati
Against the Spread: Cincinnati
The Match-up: Chicago (-7.0) @ New York Jets
The Skinny: I hope the Bears are enjoying New York City, their home away from home. The Bears will play their second straight game in the Meadowlands, and thanks largely to last week’s beat down of the Giants, the trip would have to be deemed a success.
Straight Up: Chicago
Against the Spread: New York Jets
The Match-up: Tennessee (+13.0) @ Philadelphia
The Skinny: Reports of the demise of the Eagles may have been greatly exaggerated. Shutting down the run in a 27-3 division win over Washington should restore the swagger, and another strong showing against Vince Young and the Titans will serve notice to the rest of the league.
Straight Up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia
The Match-up: Pittsburgh (-3.5) @ Cleveland
The Skinny: A hearty welcome back to the Pittsburgh Steelers, who rediscovered their identity and ran the ball to a win over New Orleans. Running to set up the pass (as opposed to the alternative) makes Ben Roethlisberger a better quarterback.
Straight Up: Pittsburgh
Against the Spread: Pittsburgh
The Match-up: Washington (+3.0) @ Tampa Bay
The Skinny: Let’s see, young quarterback making his first NFL start on the road against a decent defense without his all-pro running back? Sounds like a recipe for disaster.
Straight Up: Tampa Bay
Against the Spread: Tampa Bay
The Match-up: Detroit (+2.0) @ Arizona
The Skinny: Yes, I’m taking the Lions on the road. That should tell you what I think about the Cardinals.
Straight Up: Detroit
Against the Spread: Detroit
The Match-up: Seattle (-4.5) @ San Francisco
The Skinny: Reports are that Shaun Alexander is back and will start Sunday against the 49ers. Matt Hasselbeck should be back soon, too. Looks like the Seahawks, despite the injuries, may have broken the Super Bowl loser’s curse.
Straight Up: Seattle
Against the Spread: Seattle
The Match-up: Indianapolis (-1.0) @ Dallas
The Skinny: As wide receivers go, there will be two guys on display in The Toilet on Sunday that are polar opposites. Indianapolis’ Marvin Harrison is all class – hard working, soft-spoken, humble, and one of the best receivers the league has ever seen. And then, there’s TOFU – narcissistic, narcoleptic, and generally a piece of crap. That alone should make you pull for the Colts.
Straight Up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Indianapolis
The Match-up: San Diego (+2.5) @ Denver
The Skinny: Despite the fact that their offense hung 49 on the Bengals last week, San Diego’s defense scares me. And if they do fall behind in Denver, sledding up the comeback trail will be a lot tougher, if not impossible.
Straight Up: Denver
Against the Spread: Denver
Monday, November 20th, 2006
The Match-up: New York Giants (+3.5) @ Jacksonville
The Skinny: Maybe David Garrard was looking over his shoulder when he threw four picks in last week’s disappointing loss to Houston. And if he wasn’t, maybe he should have been.
Straight Up: New York Giants
Against the Spread: New York Giants
While I’m thinking about it, the annual "Thanksgiving Day Deuce" will be coming to you live from my old stomping grounds, and chances are I'll be all hopped up on Pudge's cheese steaks, Rosenberger's lemon iced tea, and of course Mom's spaghetti and meatballs (easily the best in the world). Not to get ahead of myself, but I like the third game on turkey day, even if it does render the title of The Deuce obsolete. I guess I’ll have to come up with something new.
Sunday, November 19th, 2006
The Match-up: St. Louis (+7.0) @ Carolina
The Skinny: Monday night was a microcosm of the Panthers’ season – brutal first half, strong second half. Carolina is suddenly only a game back in the NFC South, and New Orleans and Atlanta both look vulnerable. The Panthers seem poised to go on a run and become the Super Bowl contender everyone thought they would be.
Straight Up: Carolina
Against the Spread: Carolina
The Match-up: New England (-5.5) @ Green Bay
The Skinny: Brett Favre must be excited that Vinny Testaverde is back in the league. Now Favre doesn’t seem so old.
Straight Up: New England
Against the Spread: New England
The Match-up: Atlanta (+4.0) @ Baltimore
The Skinny: Why do I get the funny feeling that Ron Mexico will re-emerge this week and get back to being that guy who played so well a few weeks ago? They may not win it, but they’ll be in it.
Straight Up: Baltimore
Against the Spread: Atlanta
The Match-up: Oakland (+9.5) @ Kansas City
The Skinny: Props to Herm Edwards for having the wherewithal to bring Trent Green back for a scrimmage. Wait, you mean this game counts? Somebody better tell Randy Moss. Maybe he’ll actually show up.
Straight Up: Kansas City
Against the Spread: Oakland
The Match-up: Buffalo (+2.5) @ Houston
The Skinny: The Bills actually gave the Colts a scare last week, but fell short. Set up for a let-down against Houston? That might explain why the Texans are favored.
Straight Up: Houston
Against the Spread: Houston
The Match-up: Minnesota (+3.5) @ Miami
The Skinny: It’s the first ever Daunte Culpepper Bowl! I know Culpepper doesn’t play for the Vikings anymore, but the way they’ve collapsed it seems like he never left.
Straight Up: Miami
Against the Spread: Miami
The Match-up: Cincinnati (+3.5) @ New Orleans
The Skinny: I think both of these teams have been exposed on defense of late. The Saints blew a halftime lead and gave up 38 to the Steelers in the ‘burgh. Cincinnati, meanwhile, came from 21 ahead to lose to San Diego. Could either of these defenses, I don’t know, defend?
Straight Up: Cincinnati
Against the Spread: Cincinnati
The Match-up: Chicago (-7.0) @ New York Jets
The Skinny: I hope the Bears are enjoying New York City, their home away from home. The Bears will play their second straight game in the Meadowlands, and thanks largely to last week’s beat down of the Giants, the trip would have to be deemed a success.
Straight Up: Chicago
Against the Spread: New York Jets
The Match-up: Tennessee (+13.0) @ Philadelphia
The Skinny: Reports of the demise of the Eagles may have been greatly exaggerated. Shutting down the run in a 27-3 division win over Washington should restore the swagger, and another strong showing against Vince Young and the Titans will serve notice to the rest of the league.
Straight Up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia
The Match-up: Pittsburgh (-3.5) @ Cleveland
The Skinny: A hearty welcome back to the Pittsburgh Steelers, who rediscovered their identity and ran the ball to a win over New Orleans. Running to set up the pass (as opposed to the alternative) makes Ben Roethlisberger a better quarterback.
Straight Up: Pittsburgh
Against the Spread: Pittsburgh
The Match-up: Washington (+3.0) @ Tampa Bay
The Skinny: Let’s see, young quarterback making his first NFL start on the road against a decent defense without his all-pro running back? Sounds like a recipe for disaster.
Straight Up: Tampa Bay
Against the Spread: Tampa Bay
The Match-up: Detroit (+2.0) @ Arizona
The Skinny: Yes, I’m taking the Lions on the road. That should tell you what I think about the Cardinals.
Straight Up: Detroit
Against the Spread: Detroit
The Match-up: Seattle (-4.5) @ San Francisco
The Skinny: Reports are that Shaun Alexander is back and will start Sunday against the 49ers. Matt Hasselbeck should be back soon, too. Looks like the Seahawks, despite the injuries, may have broken the Super Bowl loser’s curse.
Straight Up: Seattle
Against the Spread: Seattle
The Match-up: Indianapolis (-1.0) @ Dallas
The Skinny: As wide receivers go, there will be two guys on display in The Toilet on Sunday that are polar opposites. Indianapolis’ Marvin Harrison is all class – hard working, soft-spoken, humble, and one of the best receivers the league has ever seen. And then, there’s TOFU – narcissistic, narcoleptic, and generally a piece of crap. That alone should make you pull for the Colts.
Straight Up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Indianapolis
The Match-up: San Diego (+2.5) @ Denver
The Skinny: Despite the fact that their offense hung 49 on the Bengals last week, San Diego’s defense scares me. And if they do fall behind in Denver, sledding up the comeback trail will be a lot tougher, if not impossible.
Straight Up: Denver
Against the Spread: Denver
Monday, November 20th, 2006
The Match-up: New York Giants (+3.5) @ Jacksonville
The Skinny: Maybe David Garrard was looking over his shoulder when he threw four picks in last week’s disappointing loss to Houston. And if he wasn’t, maybe he should have been.
Straight Up: New York Giants
Against the Spread: New York Giants
Thursday, November 09, 2006
The Week 10 Picks
Welcome to the stretch drive.
As it stands right now. the Colts are chasing the ’72 Dolphins (again), they’ve already beaten the Broncos and Patriots, supposedly the class of the AFC, and they are getting healthy on defense. Meanwhile, in the NFC, there are ten teams (Chicago, New York, New Orleans, Seattle, Atlanta, Philadelphia, Carolina, Dallas, Minnesota, and St. Louis) with a legitimate shot at the six post-season spots. There are no more bye weeks, literally and figuratively. One off week could mean the difference between playing in January and drafting in the teens come April.
Without further ado, on to the games…
Sunday, November 12th, 2006
The Match-up: Cleveland (Off) @ Atlanta
The Skinny: Before the game was taken off the board due to injuries to Charlie Frye, Willie McGinest, and General Winslow, Atlanta was favored by eight. As a pick, it’s a no brainer, whether or not the aforementioned injured Browns play.
Straight Up: Atlanta
Against the Spread: Atlanta
The Match-up: Washington (+7.0) @ Philadelphia
The Skinny: I can’t emphasize how important this game is to both teams. After opening 4-1 and sitting atop everybody’s list, the Eagles have stumbled and are 4-4. Washington kept their hopes alive by beating Dallas last week. A win on Sunday could set the tone for the rest of the season.
Straight Up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia
The Match-up: San Diego (-1.0) @ Cincinnati
The Skinny: The Bengals are in disarray right now. Carson Palmer may not be 100% recovered from his knee injury, Rudi Johnson wants more carries, and Ocho Cinco only has two touchdowns on the year. Sitting two games behind Baltimore, another Cincinnati loss could be the final nail in the coffin.
Straight Up: San Diego
Against the Spread: San Diego
The Match-up: San Francisco (+6.0) @ Detroit
The Skinny: If there’s one team that gives me fits, it’s the Santa Clara 49ers. Just when I think I’ve got them figured out (they’ll give the Bears a fight, so take them plus the sixteen and a half), they burn me (no way they beat Minnesota). That being said, proceed with caution on this one.
Straight Up: Detroit
Against the Spread: Detroit
The Match-up: Baltimore (-7.0) @ Tennessee
The Skinny: Steve McNair returns to Tennessee to face Vince Young, who is perhaps the next Steve McNair. Young has been impressive, and the Ravens may be without Ray Lewis and Ed Reed. This one will be closer than it should be.
Straight Up: Baltimore
Against the Spread: Tennessee
The Match-up: Buffalo (+12.0) @ Indianapolis
The Skinny: Classic donut game for the Colts, coming off an emotional win in Foxboro and a trip to The Toilet to take on the Cowgirls next week. But the Bills are without Willis McGahee, and his absence will be too much to overcome.
Straight Up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Indianapolis
The Match-up: Houston (+10.5) @ Jacksonville
The Skinny: It would seem as though David Carr got the message sent by Gary Kubiak when he was benched a couple of weeks ago. The Texans had a lead late in the Meadowlands against the Giants, but couldn’t finish. Jacksonville is due for an offensive clunker, but David Garrard is 6-1 as a starter, so he gets the job done more often than not.
Straight Up: Jacksonville
Against the Spread: Houston
The Match-up: Kansas City (-1.0) @ Miami
The Skinny: Miami won their Super Bowl last week by beating Chicago. This week, they’ll have no answer for LJ and whichever quarterback wins the Herm Edwards sweepstakes.
Straight Up: Kansas City
Against the Spread: Kansas City
The Match-up: Green Bay (+5.5) @ Minnesota
The Skinny: Minnesota’s offense has amassed ten points in their last two games. Scoring seven in a loss to New England? Acceptable. Scoring three in a loss in San Francisco? Not so much.
Straight Up: Minnesota
Against the Spread: Minnesota
The Match-up: New York Jets (+10.5) @ New England
The Skinny: At 4-4, the Jets will have a look at the playoffs. They gave the Pats a battle in Week 2, and New England is dinged, especially in the secondary with Rodney Harrison on the shelf for a couple of weeks. The Jets may fall to 4-5, but they’ll go down swinging.
Straight Up: New England
Against the Spread: New York Jets
The Match-up: Denver (-9.0) @ Oakland
The Skinny: The good news for the Raiders is that this game is not being played on a Monday. After all, Oakland has scored as many points on Monday night this year as I have, and Raider quarterbacks have been sacked 18 times in those two contests. So they may get on the scoreboard against Denver, but don’t expect much more than that.
Straight Up: Denver
Against the Spread: Denver
The Match-up: Dallas (-7.0) @ Arizona
The Skinny: Classic TOFU last week – says undiagnosed narcolepsy causes him to fall asleep in team meetings, scores a touchdown, then celebrates by laying down in the end zone and using the football as a pillow. Oh, and he dropped what would have been another touchdown that would have sealed the game and Washington ended up winning. But TOFU isn’t upset. After all, he’s got 25 million reasons to be happy.
Straight Up: Arizona
Against the Spread: Arizona
The Match-up: New Orleans (+4.5) @ Pittsburgh
The Skinny: When the overwhelming suspicions that a team has mailed it in are confirmed by a player on the team saying that the team has mailed it in, that’s not a good sign. Who thought the Steelers, the defending Super Bowl champs, would be playing the role of a spoiler on the second Sunday in November?
Straight Up: Pittsburgh
Against the Spread: New Orleans
The Match-up: St. Louis (+3.5) @ Seattle
The Skinny: How much longer can the Seahawks hold it together without Hasselbeck and Alexander? A win over the Rams could in essence lock up the division, then the ‘Hawks can focus on getting healthy for the playoffs.
Straight Up: Seattle
Against the Spread: Seattle
The Match-up: Chicago (Pick) @ New York Giants
The Skinny: What a dilemma. The key to beating the Bears is to get in Rex Grossman’s kitchen, yet the Giants will be without their top two defensive ends (Michael Strahan and Osi Umienyora). The Bears are not without their own injury concerns, as stud linebacker Brian Urlacher may be out. Tough call, but I think Tiki Barber takes over the game and will be the best player on the field.
Straight Up: New York Giants
Against the Spread: New York Giants
Monday, November 13th, 2006
The Match-up: Tampa Bay (+9.5) @ Carolina
The Skinny: The once-hallowed Tampa Bay defense now has problems stopping the run and the pass. Steve Smith always seems to have a little something extra for the Bucs, and Monday night should be no different.
Straight Up: Carolina
Against the Spread: Carolina
As it stands right now. the Colts are chasing the ’72 Dolphins (again), they’ve already beaten the Broncos and Patriots, supposedly the class of the AFC, and they are getting healthy on defense. Meanwhile, in the NFC, there are ten teams (Chicago, New York, New Orleans, Seattle, Atlanta, Philadelphia, Carolina, Dallas, Minnesota, and St. Louis) with a legitimate shot at the six post-season spots. There are no more bye weeks, literally and figuratively. One off week could mean the difference between playing in January and drafting in the teens come April.
Without further ado, on to the games…
Sunday, November 12th, 2006
The Match-up: Cleveland (Off) @ Atlanta
The Skinny: Before the game was taken off the board due to injuries to Charlie Frye, Willie McGinest, and General Winslow, Atlanta was favored by eight. As a pick, it’s a no brainer, whether or not the aforementioned injured Browns play.
Straight Up: Atlanta
Against the Spread: Atlanta
The Match-up: Washington (+7.0) @ Philadelphia
The Skinny: I can’t emphasize how important this game is to both teams. After opening 4-1 and sitting atop everybody’s list, the Eagles have stumbled and are 4-4. Washington kept their hopes alive by beating Dallas last week. A win on Sunday could set the tone for the rest of the season.
Straight Up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia
The Match-up: San Diego (-1.0) @ Cincinnati
The Skinny: The Bengals are in disarray right now. Carson Palmer may not be 100% recovered from his knee injury, Rudi Johnson wants more carries, and Ocho Cinco only has two touchdowns on the year. Sitting two games behind Baltimore, another Cincinnati loss could be the final nail in the coffin.
Straight Up: San Diego
Against the Spread: San Diego
The Match-up: San Francisco (+6.0) @ Detroit
The Skinny: If there’s one team that gives me fits, it’s the Santa Clara 49ers. Just when I think I’ve got them figured out (they’ll give the Bears a fight, so take them plus the sixteen and a half), they burn me (no way they beat Minnesota). That being said, proceed with caution on this one.
Straight Up: Detroit
Against the Spread: Detroit
The Match-up: Baltimore (-7.0) @ Tennessee
The Skinny: Steve McNair returns to Tennessee to face Vince Young, who is perhaps the next Steve McNair. Young has been impressive, and the Ravens may be without Ray Lewis and Ed Reed. This one will be closer than it should be.
Straight Up: Baltimore
Against the Spread: Tennessee
The Match-up: Buffalo (+12.0) @ Indianapolis
The Skinny: Classic donut game for the Colts, coming off an emotional win in Foxboro and a trip to The Toilet to take on the Cowgirls next week. But the Bills are without Willis McGahee, and his absence will be too much to overcome.
Straight Up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Indianapolis
The Match-up: Houston (+10.5) @ Jacksonville
The Skinny: It would seem as though David Carr got the message sent by Gary Kubiak when he was benched a couple of weeks ago. The Texans had a lead late in the Meadowlands against the Giants, but couldn’t finish. Jacksonville is due for an offensive clunker, but David Garrard is 6-1 as a starter, so he gets the job done more often than not.
Straight Up: Jacksonville
Against the Spread: Houston
The Match-up: Kansas City (-1.0) @ Miami
The Skinny: Miami won their Super Bowl last week by beating Chicago. This week, they’ll have no answer for LJ and whichever quarterback wins the Herm Edwards sweepstakes.
Straight Up: Kansas City
Against the Spread: Kansas City
The Match-up: Green Bay (+5.5) @ Minnesota
The Skinny: Minnesota’s offense has amassed ten points in their last two games. Scoring seven in a loss to New England? Acceptable. Scoring three in a loss in San Francisco? Not so much.
Straight Up: Minnesota
Against the Spread: Minnesota
The Match-up: New York Jets (+10.5) @ New England
The Skinny: At 4-4, the Jets will have a look at the playoffs. They gave the Pats a battle in Week 2, and New England is dinged, especially in the secondary with Rodney Harrison on the shelf for a couple of weeks. The Jets may fall to 4-5, but they’ll go down swinging.
Straight Up: New England
Against the Spread: New York Jets
The Match-up: Denver (-9.0) @ Oakland
The Skinny: The good news for the Raiders is that this game is not being played on a Monday. After all, Oakland has scored as many points on Monday night this year as I have, and Raider quarterbacks have been sacked 18 times in those two contests. So they may get on the scoreboard against Denver, but don’t expect much more than that.
Straight Up: Denver
Against the Spread: Denver
The Match-up: Dallas (-7.0) @ Arizona
The Skinny: Classic TOFU last week – says undiagnosed narcolepsy causes him to fall asleep in team meetings, scores a touchdown, then celebrates by laying down in the end zone and using the football as a pillow. Oh, and he dropped what would have been another touchdown that would have sealed the game and Washington ended up winning. But TOFU isn’t upset. After all, he’s got 25 million reasons to be happy.
Straight Up: Arizona
Against the Spread: Arizona
The Match-up: New Orleans (+4.5) @ Pittsburgh
The Skinny: When the overwhelming suspicions that a team has mailed it in are confirmed by a player on the team saying that the team has mailed it in, that’s not a good sign. Who thought the Steelers, the defending Super Bowl champs, would be playing the role of a spoiler on the second Sunday in November?
Straight Up: Pittsburgh
Against the Spread: New Orleans
The Match-up: St. Louis (+3.5) @ Seattle
The Skinny: How much longer can the Seahawks hold it together without Hasselbeck and Alexander? A win over the Rams could in essence lock up the division, then the ‘Hawks can focus on getting healthy for the playoffs.
Straight Up: Seattle
Against the Spread: Seattle
The Match-up: Chicago (Pick) @ New York Giants
The Skinny: What a dilemma. The key to beating the Bears is to get in Rex Grossman’s kitchen, yet the Giants will be without their top two defensive ends (Michael Strahan and Osi Umienyora). The Bears are not without their own injury concerns, as stud linebacker Brian Urlacher may be out. Tough call, but I think Tiki Barber takes over the game and will be the best player on the field.
Straight Up: New York Giants
Against the Spread: New York Giants
Monday, November 13th, 2006
The Match-up: Tampa Bay (+9.5) @ Carolina
The Skinny: The once-hallowed Tampa Bay defense now has problems stopping the run and the pass. Steve Smith always seems to have a little something extra for the Bucs, and Monday night should be no different.
Straight Up: Carolina
Against the Spread: Carolina
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