Nothing's Shocking

For the first time in recent memory, the eight remaining teams in the NFL are the top four seeds in each conference, all eight division winners. When the top seeds in a playoff bracket advance, they call it “Chalk.” I’m not exactly sure why, but I do know that chalk is easily erased.

My motto for this weekend’s games: Nothing’s Shocking. Would it surprise me to see the Patriots upset the Chargers in San Diego? Nope. On the flip side, if LT and the Chargers dismantled the Pats, that wouldn’t exactly shock me either. Who shows up, Dr. Rex-yll (250 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT, Bears win) or Mr. Gross-hyde (sub-30 QB rating, 3 INT, 2 fumbles, Bears loss)? Either way, I won’t be surprised. The Eagles, Saints, Colts and Ravens could all move on or fall flat.

This is by far the toughest weekend to call. I, however, feel like I’m playing with house money at this point in time. The Eagles have exceeded (almost) everyone’s expectations, and the Cowboys are out like the fat kid at a dodge ball game. What happens from here on out is gravy.

A quick aside before I get to the picks – I love the fact that Coors Light finally got some Jim Mora press conference clips into their commercials. His “Playoffs?” rant is still an all-timer. I miss Jim Mora. Can’t some team hire him to do PR? Maybe TOFU will bring him in as his new publicist, since he kicked that skeezer Kim Etheredge to the curb. I can see it now…

“Overdose? Overdose? Are you kiddin’ me? Overdose? I just hope he can catch the ball. He sucked. He just sucked. He couldn’t do diddly poo offensively. He gave ‘em the friggin’ game. In my opinion, he sucks.”

Saturday, January 13th, 2007

The Match-up: Indianapolis (+4.0) @ Baltimore
The Skinny: Here’s what scares me about the Colts this week. They’re coming off a game in which Peyton Manning threw three interceptions at home against a good but not great Kansas City defense. The Ravens defense led the league in takeaways, and they only surrendered 20+ points four times this season. Indy’s defense was impressive in shutting down Larry Johnson last week and will need a similar effort to contain Jamal Lewis. I’ve got a sneaking suspicion that the Colts are going to get it done.
Straight Up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Indianapolis
The Score: Colts 24, Ravens 19

The Match-up: Philadelphia (+5.0) @ New Orleans
The Skinny: As the old saying goes, the best defense is a good offense. Since the season-ending injury to Donovan McNabb, Brian Westbrook has emerged as a dominant every-down back. Witness last week’s win over the Giants – Westbrook ran for a career-high 141 yards on 20 carries, including a 49-yard touchdown. More importantly, the offense is more balanced, which makes it more effective. Match the running of Westbrook against the Saints’ 23rd-ranked rush defense, and it looks like the Eagles could be hated for ending the dream season of the real “America’s Team.”
Straight Up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia
The Score: Eagles 27, Saints 21

Sunday, January 14th, 2007

The Match-up: Seattle (+8.5) @ Chicago
The Skinny: In my mind, this game totally hinges on Rex Grossman. Seattle’s secondary is decimated to a point where they have safeties playing corner and former loan officers playing safety. Grossman needs to hit a couple of throws early to get his confidence going. Seattle’s only hope may be to get ahead early, then ride Shaun Alexander. If the Hawks fall behind early and have to throw it to catch up, I’m not sure they can do it. I think the Bears will win the game, but it will be closer than Bears fan might like.
Straight Up: Chicago
Against the Spread: Seattle
The Score: Bears 20, Seahawks 16

The Match-up: New England (+4.5) @ San Diego
The Skinny: The Chargers are the hottest team in the league, currently riding a 10-game winning streak. But the playoffs are a different animal altogether, and there are so many reasons not to pick San Diego. For example, Marty Schottenheimer has a lifetime 5-12 playoff record including eight one-and-done years. Philip Rivers has never started a playoff game, and he was in a walking boot after spraining his foot in the season finale against Arizona. On the other side of the ledger, Tom Brady is 11-1 all-time in the post-season, and he’s so tough to defend, even for a defense as good as San Diego’s. Blitz him and he hits the hot receiver (he made Jabar Gaffney look like Art Monk last week). Lay back and he’ll kill you underneath with dump offs to Laurence Maroney and Ben Watson. I’m a big LaDanian Tomlinson guy, but much like Larry Johnson last week, I don’t think he can do it alone. I just can’t go against the Pats.
Straight Up: New England
Against the Spread: New England
The Score: Patriots 27, Chargers 24