On the heels of last week’s playoff games, two issues need to be addressed.
For starters, the Eagles fell 27-24 to the Saints in New Orleans, but had ample chances to win the game. To say they should have won would take credit away from the Saints, who played a great game and deserved to win. But the Eagles loss did not hinge solely on Andy Reid’s decision to punt on 4th and 15 with 1:56 to play. The thinking being, if they could have pinned the Saints deep in their own end, use their remaining timeouts and force a punt, they would have had a short field to work with only needing a field goal to send the game into overtime. Reid’s other option would have been to go for it on fourth down, where if they don’t convert, the Saints take over already in field goal range. Assuming the defense holds and the Saints extend their lead to six, the Eagles would have had to go the length of the field in less than a minute with no timeouts needing a touchdown to win the game. Reid opted to kick it away, and the rest, as they say, is history. Reid simply made the wrong decision. And why was it the wrong decision?
Because it didn’t work.
For my money, punting was still the right thing to do. Converting a fourth and long to keep a game-winning drive is a one-in-a-million shot, and that lightning already struck the Eagles (remember McNabb to FredEx on 4th and 26?). The bottom line is, if they would have gone for it on 4th and 15 and didn’t make it, Reid would be catching hell for not kicking it away. Instead of burying Reid and the Eagles, let’s commend them for winning six straight, winning the East, and holding it together without Donovan McNabb.
On Sunday, to the surprise of nobody, the Patriots beat the Chargers in San Diego, and celebrated by doing the Shawne Merriman “Lights Out” dance at midfield, which sparked the ire of the ever-classy LaDanian Tomlinson, who took a shot at Bill Belicheck afterwards. Much of the talk has been about the Patriots and how they are the gold standard in the league and should be above this kind of showmanship.
Here’s my question – why is everyone acting like the Patriots are a bunch of choirboys? This is the same team that, two years ago, did the Eagles wing flap every time they made a play. Their coach wouldn’t shake hands with a guy that used to work for him, then he chucked a photographer aside to give him a hug (which was all for show anyway). What, because they’ve won three Super Bowls in the last five years they’re immune to all the trash talk? The guys on this team are no different than guys on other teams.
Don’t get me wrong. I’m not saying the Patriots shouldn’t have done what they did. Rewind to last season when the Chargers went to Foxboro and beat the Patriots, snapping their 21-game home winning streak in the process. Word is a bunch of guys from the Chargers were yapping like Clubber Lang in “Rocky III.” The Patriots are a proud bunch, and I bet that had something to do with their reaction last week.
Plus, it’s not like the Chargers didn’t have it coming. Memo to the Chargers – if it’s going to piss you off to see someone come into your house and dance on your field, maybe next time you should win the game.
Complete role reversal for me this weekend. A week ago I was on an 0-4 streak but had the Eagles to fall back on. Last week, I went 4-0, but the Birds lost. Now that I don’t have a dog in the fight, I can actually pick objectively. Sort of.
Sunday, January 21st, 2007
The Match-up: New Orleans (+2.5) @ Chicago
The Skinny: On the surface, it would seem as though a dome team playing in Chicago in January would be at a severe disadvantage. But the Saints are 6-2 on the road this year, and they are balanced enough offensively to challenge the Bears defense. Chicago gave up 100 yards and two touchdowns to Shaun Alexander last week, and Deuce McAllister and Reggie Bush are both capable of taking over the game. Rex Grossman didn’t play half bad last week, and he’ll be tested by an underrated New Orleans defense. The Saints are hands down the best story in the league this year, and I hope they keep it going.
Straight Up: New Orleans
Against the Spread: New Orleans
The Score: Saints 27, Bears 20
The Match-up: New England (+3.0) @ Indianapolis
The Skinny: Really, could it be any other way? The difference is, this version of Patriots-Colts in the AFC title game is that this game is being played indoors, in the friendly confines of the RCA Dome, where the Colts are undefeated this year. Another difference? Adam Vinatieri kicks for the Colts now, and wouldn’t it be ironic of the game came down to a Vinatieri field goal? Look, sooner or later, Peyton Manning is going to have to cash one of these opportunities in, and this may be his best look at it. I think it’s finally his time.
Straight Up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Indianapolis
The Score: Colts 31, Patriots 23
Thursday, January 18, 2007
Friday, January 12, 2007
Nothing's Shocking
For the first time in recent memory, the eight remaining teams in the NFL are the top four seeds in each conference, all eight division winners. When the top seeds in a playoff bracket advance, they call it “Chalk.” I’m not exactly sure why, but I do know that chalk is easily erased.
My motto for this weekend’s games: Nothing’s Shocking. Would it surprise me to see the Patriots upset the Chargers in San Diego? Nope. On the flip side, if LT and the Chargers dismantled the Pats, that wouldn’t exactly shock me either. Who shows up, Dr. Rex-yll (250 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT, Bears win) or Mr. Gross-hyde (sub-30 QB rating, 3 INT, 2 fumbles, Bears loss)? Either way, I won’t be surprised. The Eagles, Saints, Colts and Ravens could all move on or fall flat.
This is by far the toughest weekend to call. I, however, feel like I’m playing with house money at this point in time. The Eagles have exceeded (almost) everyone’s expectations, and the Cowboys are out like the fat kid at a dodge ball game. What happens from here on out is gravy.
A quick aside before I get to the picks – I love the fact that Coors Light finally got some Jim Mora press conference clips into their commercials. His “Playoffs?” rant is still an all-timer. I miss Jim Mora. Can’t some team hire him to do PR? Maybe TOFU will bring him in as his new publicist, since he kicked that skeezer Kim Etheredge to the curb. I can see it now…
“Overdose? Overdose? Are you kiddin’ me? Overdose? I just hope he can catch the ball. He sucked. He just sucked. He couldn’t do diddly poo offensively. He gave ‘em the friggin’ game. In my opinion, he sucks.”
Saturday, January 13th, 2007
The Match-up: Indianapolis (+4.0) @ Baltimore
The Skinny: Here’s what scares me about the Colts this week. They’re coming off a game in which Peyton Manning threw three interceptions at home against a good but not great Kansas City defense. The Ravens defense led the league in takeaways, and they only surrendered 20+ points four times this season. Indy’s defense was impressive in shutting down Larry Johnson last week and will need a similar effort to contain Jamal Lewis. I’ve got a sneaking suspicion that the Colts are going to get it done.
Straight Up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Indianapolis
The Score: Colts 24, Ravens 19
The Match-up: Philadelphia (+5.0) @ New Orleans
The Skinny: As the old saying goes, the best defense is a good offense. Since the season-ending injury to Donovan McNabb, Brian Westbrook has emerged as a dominant every-down back. Witness last week’s win over the Giants – Westbrook ran for a career-high 141 yards on 20 carries, including a 49-yard touchdown. More importantly, the offense is more balanced, which makes it more effective. Match the running of Westbrook against the Saints’ 23rd-ranked rush defense, and it looks like the Eagles could be hated for ending the dream season of the real “America’s Team.”
Straight Up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia
The Score: Eagles 27, Saints 21
Sunday, January 14th, 2007
The Match-up: Seattle (+8.5) @ Chicago
The Skinny: In my mind, this game totally hinges on Rex Grossman. Seattle’s secondary is decimated to a point where they have safeties playing corner and former loan officers playing safety. Grossman needs to hit a couple of throws early to get his confidence going. Seattle’s only hope may be to get ahead early, then ride Shaun Alexander. If the Hawks fall behind early and have to throw it to catch up, I’m not sure they can do it. I think the Bears will win the game, but it will be closer than Bears fan might like.
Straight Up: Chicago
Against the Spread: Seattle
The Score: Bears 20, Seahawks 16
The Match-up: New England (+4.5) @ San Diego
The Skinny: The Chargers are the hottest team in the league, currently riding a 10-game winning streak. But the playoffs are a different animal altogether, and there are so many reasons not to pick San Diego. For example, Marty Schottenheimer has a lifetime 5-12 playoff record including eight one-and-done years. Philip Rivers has never started a playoff game, and he was in a walking boot after spraining his foot in the season finale against Arizona. On the other side of the ledger, Tom Brady is 11-1 all-time in the post-season, and he’s so tough to defend, even for a defense as good as San Diego’s. Blitz him and he hits the hot receiver (he made Jabar Gaffney look like Art Monk last week). Lay back and he’ll kill you underneath with dump offs to Laurence Maroney and Ben Watson. I’m a big LaDanian Tomlinson guy, but much like Larry Johnson last week, I don’t think he can do it alone. I just can’t go against the Pats.
Straight Up: New England
Against the Spread: New England
The Score: Patriots 27, Chargers 24
My motto for this weekend’s games: Nothing’s Shocking. Would it surprise me to see the Patriots upset the Chargers in San Diego? Nope. On the flip side, if LT and the Chargers dismantled the Pats, that wouldn’t exactly shock me either. Who shows up, Dr. Rex-yll (250 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT, Bears win) or Mr. Gross-hyde (sub-30 QB rating, 3 INT, 2 fumbles, Bears loss)? Either way, I won’t be surprised. The Eagles, Saints, Colts and Ravens could all move on or fall flat.
This is by far the toughest weekend to call. I, however, feel like I’m playing with house money at this point in time. The Eagles have exceeded (almost) everyone’s expectations, and the Cowboys are out like the fat kid at a dodge ball game. What happens from here on out is gravy.
A quick aside before I get to the picks – I love the fact that Coors Light finally got some Jim Mora press conference clips into their commercials. His “Playoffs?” rant is still an all-timer. I miss Jim Mora. Can’t some team hire him to do PR? Maybe TOFU will bring him in as his new publicist, since he kicked that skeezer Kim Etheredge to the curb. I can see it now…
“Overdose? Overdose? Are you kiddin’ me? Overdose? I just hope he can catch the ball. He sucked. He just sucked. He couldn’t do diddly poo offensively. He gave ‘em the friggin’ game. In my opinion, he sucks.”
Saturday, January 13th, 2007
The Match-up: Indianapolis (+4.0) @ Baltimore
The Skinny: Here’s what scares me about the Colts this week. They’re coming off a game in which Peyton Manning threw three interceptions at home against a good but not great Kansas City defense. The Ravens defense led the league in takeaways, and they only surrendered 20+ points four times this season. Indy’s defense was impressive in shutting down Larry Johnson last week and will need a similar effort to contain Jamal Lewis. I’ve got a sneaking suspicion that the Colts are going to get it done.
Straight Up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Indianapolis
The Score: Colts 24, Ravens 19
The Match-up: Philadelphia (+5.0) @ New Orleans
The Skinny: As the old saying goes, the best defense is a good offense. Since the season-ending injury to Donovan McNabb, Brian Westbrook has emerged as a dominant every-down back. Witness last week’s win over the Giants – Westbrook ran for a career-high 141 yards on 20 carries, including a 49-yard touchdown. More importantly, the offense is more balanced, which makes it more effective. Match the running of Westbrook against the Saints’ 23rd-ranked rush defense, and it looks like the Eagles could be hated for ending the dream season of the real “America’s Team.”
Straight Up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia
The Score: Eagles 27, Saints 21
Sunday, January 14th, 2007
The Match-up: Seattle (+8.5) @ Chicago
The Skinny: In my mind, this game totally hinges on Rex Grossman. Seattle’s secondary is decimated to a point where they have safeties playing corner and former loan officers playing safety. Grossman needs to hit a couple of throws early to get his confidence going. Seattle’s only hope may be to get ahead early, then ride Shaun Alexander. If the Hawks fall behind early and have to throw it to catch up, I’m not sure they can do it. I think the Bears will win the game, but it will be closer than Bears fan might like.
Straight Up: Chicago
Against the Spread: Seattle
The Score: Bears 20, Seahawks 16
The Match-up: New England (+4.5) @ San Diego
The Skinny: The Chargers are the hottest team in the league, currently riding a 10-game winning streak. But the playoffs are a different animal altogether, and there are so many reasons not to pick San Diego. For example, Marty Schottenheimer has a lifetime 5-12 playoff record including eight one-and-done years. Philip Rivers has never started a playoff game, and he was in a walking boot after spraining his foot in the season finale against Arizona. On the other side of the ledger, Tom Brady is 11-1 all-time in the post-season, and he’s so tough to defend, even for a defense as good as San Diego’s. Blitz him and he hits the hot receiver (he made Jabar Gaffney look like Art Monk last week). Lay back and he’ll kill you underneath with dump offs to Laurence Maroney and Ben Watson. I’m a big LaDanian Tomlinson guy, but much like Larry Johnson last week, I don’t think he can do it alone. I just can’t go against the Pats.
Straight Up: New England
Against the Spread: New England
The Score: Patriots 27, Chargers 24
Monday, January 08, 2007
Wild Card Wrap Up
This is why I don’t gamble.
Despite the fact that I picked all four winners (Indianapolis, Seattle, New England, Philadelphia) in round one of the NFL playoffs, I also took the collar against the spread, as Kansas City, Seattle, the Jets and Eagles all failed to cover.
Don’t get me wrong. I’m not complaining about the results. I mean, the Eagles win and advance to face a tough Saints team in New Orleans, meanwhile the Cowboys fumble away a potential win over the Seahawks thus ending their season. What a gaffe that was. Somebody better check on Tony Romo today and make sure he’s not sitting in his car in his garage with the engine running.
I’m sure TOFU isn’t too upset about it. He’s sitting at home after one playoff game (in which he turned in a stellar, two-catch, 26-yard performance) while the Eagles, led by Jeff Garcia, are on a six-game winning streak and still alive. But that shouldn’t bother TOFU. After all, he’s got 25 million reasons why he should be happy. At least that’s what his skeezer publicist would have you believe.
So much for the notion that Larry Johnson would single-handedly carry the Chiefs past the Colts and their horrendous run defense. LJ finished with just 32 yards on 13 carries and the Colts overcame three Peyton Manning picks to move on. Baltimore awaits.
Could we be destined for yet another Colts-Patriots AFC championship game? The Patriots did a number on the Jets yesterday and now head to San Diego. Who really knows what to expect from the Chargers? Can you believe in Philip Rivers? Or Marty Schottenheimer? I’m really on the fence about this one.
Way back in May, CNN-Si.com writer Jeffri Chadiha penned a column in which he discounted the Super Bowl chances of five teams. The second team he mentioned? The Philadelphia Eagles. Chadiha’s peril of wisdom read:
“If I'm an Eagles fan, I have some major concerns about this offense. It's starting to look a lot like it did back in the days before Terrell Owens blew into town. There isn't a receiver who really scares a defense. The running game isn't intimidating either, not when Brian Westbrook will be splitting carries with Ryan Moats and the oft-injured Correll Buckhalter. Even with a healthy Donovan McNabb back at quarterback, there are plenty of reasons to think that the best days of this perennial NFC contender have passed. One look at the competition in the NFC East -- where Washington, Dallas and the New York Giants have improved -- should cement that opinion.”
I e-mailed this genius when I read the article, noting that the offense prior to TOFU was in three straight NFC championship games, and that Brian Westbrook was one of the most underrated players in the league, and that the receiving corps would be better than advertised. He invited his readers to e-mail him back at the end of the season, and when I do I will point how the not-so-intimidating Westbrook amassed better than 1,900 yards from scrimmage, how the Eagles went 5-1 against their vastly improved NFC East foes, and how the Eagles are the only team from the East still in contention. It warrants mentioning that Chadiha also tabbed the Kansas City Chiefs (9-7 and in the playoffs) and San Diego Chargers (14-2 and the best team in the league) as hopeless. Mel Kiper Jr. thinks this guy is stealing a paycheck. Next year when Chadiha publishes his ‘Five Teams with No Chance’ column, I’m flying to Vegas and betting the farm on those five teams (as long as the Cowboys are not among them).
Look for the second round picks later in the week.
Despite the fact that I picked all four winners (Indianapolis, Seattle, New England, Philadelphia) in round one of the NFL playoffs, I also took the collar against the spread, as Kansas City, Seattle, the Jets and Eagles all failed to cover.
Don’t get me wrong. I’m not complaining about the results. I mean, the Eagles win and advance to face a tough Saints team in New Orleans, meanwhile the Cowboys fumble away a potential win over the Seahawks thus ending their season. What a gaffe that was. Somebody better check on Tony Romo today and make sure he’s not sitting in his car in his garage with the engine running.
I’m sure TOFU isn’t too upset about it. He’s sitting at home after one playoff game (in which he turned in a stellar, two-catch, 26-yard performance) while the Eagles, led by Jeff Garcia, are on a six-game winning streak and still alive. But that shouldn’t bother TOFU. After all, he’s got 25 million reasons why he should be happy. At least that’s what his skeezer publicist would have you believe.
So much for the notion that Larry Johnson would single-handedly carry the Chiefs past the Colts and their horrendous run defense. LJ finished with just 32 yards on 13 carries and the Colts overcame three Peyton Manning picks to move on. Baltimore awaits.
Could we be destined for yet another Colts-Patriots AFC championship game? The Patriots did a number on the Jets yesterday and now head to San Diego. Who really knows what to expect from the Chargers? Can you believe in Philip Rivers? Or Marty Schottenheimer? I’m really on the fence about this one.
Way back in May, CNN-Si.com writer Jeffri Chadiha penned a column in which he discounted the Super Bowl chances of five teams. The second team he mentioned? The Philadelphia Eagles. Chadiha’s peril of wisdom read:
“If I'm an Eagles fan, I have some major concerns about this offense. It's starting to look a lot like it did back in the days before Terrell Owens blew into town. There isn't a receiver who really scares a defense. The running game isn't intimidating either, not when Brian Westbrook will be splitting carries with Ryan Moats and the oft-injured Correll Buckhalter. Even with a healthy Donovan McNabb back at quarterback, there are plenty of reasons to think that the best days of this perennial NFC contender have passed. One look at the competition in the NFC East -- where Washington, Dallas and the New York Giants have improved -- should cement that opinion.”
I e-mailed this genius when I read the article, noting that the offense prior to TOFU was in three straight NFC championship games, and that Brian Westbrook was one of the most underrated players in the league, and that the receiving corps would be better than advertised. He invited his readers to e-mail him back at the end of the season, and when I do I will point how the not-so-intimidating Westbrook amassed better than 1,900 yards from scrimmage, how the Eagles went 5-1 against their vastly improved NFC East foes, and how the Eagles are the only team from the East still in contention. It warrants mentioning that Chadiha also tabbed the Kansas City Chiefs (9-7 and in the playoffs) and San Diego Chargers (14-2 and the best team in the league) as hopeless. Mel Kiper Jr. thinks this guy is stealing a paycheck. Next year when Chadiha publishes his ‘Five Teams with No Chance’ column, I’m flying to Vegas and betting the farm on those five teams (as long as the Cowboys are not among them).
Look for the second round picks later in the week.
Wednesday, January 03, 2007
Wild Card Weekend
Well, 2006 certainly ended on a high note.
Let me rewind to Saturday, December 30th. I was enjoying a nice steak dinner at Ruth’s Chris Steak House in Cary, NC with a couple of friends when I glanced to my right and saw Derian Hatcher, Peter Forsberg, Robert Esche, Antero Niittymaki, Mike Knuble, and Alexei Zhitnik sitting at the table next to ours. The Flyers were in town to play the Hurricanes. We ordered a round of beers for their table, and after dinner Esche came over and shook all of our hands. He went out and had 40 saves in a 5-2 victory Sunday night. Must have been the extra Bud Light he threw down.
Speaking of that game, I was tipped off to the fact that the Flyers morning skate would be open to the public, so I took my 4 ½ year-old son to the arena to watch, knowing full well that I wouldn’t be able to take him to an 8:00 PM face off on New Year’s Eve. Anyway, the doors closest to where we parked were locked, but a door on the other side of the building was propped open. We entered and were greeted by a security guard, leading to the following exchange:
Me: “We’re here for the Flyers skate.”
Security Guard: “Are you with the Flyers Fan Club?”
Me: “Um…yes.” (I’m not, but whatever).
Security Guard: “OK, the rest of your party is right down here.”
We were escorted to a section of seats about five rows back of the glass as the Hurricanes were finishing their practice. Once they were finished, all of the Caniacs in attendance were told to leave and the Flyers Fan Club, myself included, moved down into the front rows. The Zamboni cleaned the rink (clearly the highlight of Ryan’s day), and then the Flyers took the ice. Following practice, as the players were filtering off, a few waved and smiled, and we received a couple of practice pucks as souvenirs. A good time had by all.
I made it home just in time to tune into Week 17 of the NFL, which had lost some luster thanks to the fact that the Giants defeat of Washington on Saturday night mathematically eliminated many of the NFC teams. But I did get to watch a lot of the Kansas City-Jacksonville game and followed other scores on the computer. One game in particular I was paying close attention to went exactly the way I hoped it would…
Detroit 39, Dallas 31.
I said the 2-13 Detroit Lions, jockeying for the first overall pick in April’s draft, hung 39 points on a Dallas team playing at home in the Toilet still with a chance to win the NFC East. The Lions win clinched the fifth NFC East division title for the Eagles in the last six years. It also rendered the Eagles-Falcons game merely an exhibition, meaning Jeff Garcia, Brian Westbrook, and most of the other key starters got to rest after the first series. Philadelphia will host the Giants on Sunday (more on this and the other playoff games in a minute).
So to sum up New Year’s Eve, the Eagles won, the Flyers won, and the Cowboys choked on one. That’s a pretty good New Year’s as far as I’m concerned.
2007 did not start out as well. My daughter was sick and proceeded to barf all over me at about 7:30 in the morning on the 1st. I’ve yet to decide if getting yanked on is a good or bad omen for ’07. I’ll have to get back to you on that one.
Here are a few other random thoughts before I get to this weekend’s playoff games.
* Condolences to the family and friends of Broncos cornerback Darrent Williams, who was shot and killed early Monday morning outside a night club in Denver. The 24 year-old left behind two young children, and it sounds as though Williams was simply in the wrong place at the wrong time, which is a real shame.
* Tennessee Titans quarterback Vince Young and Houston Texans linebacker DeMeco Ryans were named offensive and defensive rookies of the year, and I completely agree with both choices. Can you believe the Texans could have had both?
* Is anybody really surprised that Nick Saban left the Dolphins to take the Alabama job? For starters, they waved a boatload of cash at him ($32 million guaranteed over eight years). Plus, he’s more suited to the college game as his records at Michigan State and LSU would indicate. Dolphins fans shouldn’t be too upset about losing Saban, as he only compiled a 15-17 record and no playoff appearances during his two-year tenure. There are plenty of guys that can do that.
* I had Tom Coughlin as the first coach to get the axe, but the Giants at least made it to the playoffs. I still think he’s dead man walking, but he’s not the first to be let go. That honor was shared between Jim Mora and Dennis Green, dismissed by Atlanta and Arizona, respectively. With Saban gone and Coughlin soon to follow (like, on Monday) there are already four head coaching vacancies in the NFL, and the season has only been officially over for three days.
* Interesting Stat #1 – In his last five starts, Cowboys QB Tony Romo has thrown eight interceptions and fumbled the ball seven times. By my count, that’s 15 turnovers, or three per start. Welcome to the Turnover Factory, Mr. Romo! Mr. Warner will now show you to your office, then Mr. Grossman will be taking you out to lunch.
* Interesting Stat #2 – The Philadelphia Eagles enter the playoffs on a five-game winning streak for the second time in franchise history. The last time they did so was 1949, when the Eagles went on to win the NFL Championship. Talk about a good omen.
In what must be termed a down year in terms of the picks, I finished 2006 with records of 157-99 straight up and 129-120-7 against the spread. Despite the fact that both marks declined from 2005, I still picked more winners than all but one of ESPN’s so-called “Experts,” and the one was Mike Golic, a Notre Dame guy, so I’m cool with that.
One final piece of business. Last year, when I made my playoff picks, I did so for the entire post-season in one fell swoop. Courtesy of the coin toss system, I predicted the NFC without flaw, which was pretty funny. I have opted to go week by week this year, starting with this weekend’s wild card games. I’ll even give you scores.
Saturday, January 6th, 2007
The Match-up: Kansas City (+6.5) @ Indianapolis
The Skinny: Herm Edwards has been adamant that the Chiefs did not back into the playoffs, and on some level I agree with him. Kansas City did win their final two games to get to 9-7, but they only got in because some other teams (notably, Denver) threw it in the tank. KC didn’t back in, the Broncos backed out. Now some people are thinking the Chiefs can upset the Colts, and with the combination of Larry Johnson and Indy’s run defense, it’s not out of the realm of possibility. However, I could see Peyton Manning running a perfect two-minute drill to put Indianapolis ahead for good late in the game.
Straight Up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Kansas City
The Score: Colts 24, Chiefs 20
The Match-up: Dallas (+3.0) @ Seattle
The Skinny: Neither team is exactly on a roll right now. Both the Seahawks and Cowboys have lost three of their last four, the difference being Seattle hung on to win their mediocre division. That’s why this game is being played in the Pacific Northwest. Dallas’ defense has been an abomination, surrendering 131 points in their last four games. No reason to think that Matt Hasselbeck and Shaun Alexander can’t run roughshod over the Cowboys.
Straight Up: Seattle
Against the Spread: Seattle
The Score: Seahawks 34, Cowboys 23
Sunday, January 7th, 2007
The Match-up: New York Jets (+9.0) @ New England
The Skinny: The two played tight games both times they faced each other this year, with the Patriots winning 24-17 in Foxboro and the Jets 17-14 in the swamps of Jersey. Much has been made of the contentious relationship between Bill Belichick and Eric Mangini, but hopefully that doesn’t overshadow what might be the most entertaining game of the weekend. It’s January, it’s Foxboro, it’s Brady and Belichick, therefore it’s the Pats in a close one.
Straight Up: New England
Against the Spread: New York Jets
The Score: Patriots 24, Jets 23
The Match-up: New York Giants (+6.5) @ Philadelphia
The Skinny: I’ll admit I was a little nervous when I saw the kind of numbers Tiki Barber put up against the Redskins on Saturday – 23 carries, 234 yards, 3 scores. Tiki, like his brother, has been a thorn in the Eagles side before. But the more I thought about it, I began to realize that the Birds dominated the Giants for seven of the nine quarters they played this year, the two exceptions being the fourth quarter and overtime of their Week 2 match up when Andy Reid went Marty Schottenheimer and took the air our of the ball. With Jeff Garcia at quarterback, the Eagles offense is perhaps the most balanced of the playoff teams. The offensive line has played very well of late, and the defense seems to have turned a corner during this five-game winning streak. The Eagles will take Tiki out of play and make She-li Manning win the game for New York, and I don’t think he’s capable of doing that.
Straight Up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia
The Score: Eagles 31, Giants 17
Let me rewind to Saturday, December 30th. I was enjoying a nice steak dinner at Ruth’s Chris Steak House in Cary, NC with a couple of friends when I glanced to my right and saw Derian Hatcher, Peter Forsberg, Robert Esche, Antero Niittymaki, Mike Knuble, and Alexei Zhitnik sitting at the table next to ours. The Flyers were in town to play the Hurricanes. We ordered a round of beers for their table, and after dinner Esche came over and shook all of our hands. He went out and had 40 saves in a 5-2 victory Sunday night. Must have been the extra Bud Light he threw down.
Speaking of that game, I was tipped off to the fact that the Flyers morning skate would be open to the public, so I took my 4 ½ year-old son to the arena to watch, knowing full well that I wouldn’t be able to take him to an 8:00 PM face off on New Year’s Eve. Anyway, the doors closest to where we parked were locked, but a door on the other side of the building was propped open. We entered and were greeted by a security guard, leading to the following exchange:
Me: “We’re here for the Flyers skate.”
Security Guard: “Are you with the Flyers Fan Club?”
Me: “Um…yes.” (I’m not, but whatever).
Security Guard: “OK, the rest of your party is right down here.”
We were escorted to a section of seats about five rows back of the glass as the Hurricanes were finishing their practice. Once they were finished, all of the Caniacs in attendance were told to leave and the Flyers Fan Club, myself included, moved down into the front rows. The Zamboni cleaned the rink (clearly the highlight of Ryan’s day), and then the Flyers took the ice. Following practice, as the players were filtering off, a few waved and smiled, and we received a couple of practice pucks as souvenirs. A good time had by all.
I made it home just in time to tune into Week 17 of the NFL, which had lost some luster thanks to the fact that the Giants defeat of Washington on Saturday night mathematically eliminated many of the NFC teams. But I did get to watch a lot of the Kansas City-Jacksonville game and followed other scores on the computer. One game in particular I was paying close attention to went exactly the way I hoped it would…
Detroit 39, Dallas 31.
I said the 2-13 Detroit Lions, jockeying for the first overall pick in April’s draft, hung 39 points on a Dallas team playing at home in the Toilet still with a chance to win the NFC East. The Lions win clinched the fifth NFC East division title for the Eagles in the last six years. It also rendered the Eagles-Falcons game merely an exhibition, meaning Jeff Garcia, Brian Westbrook, and most of the other key starters got to rest after the first series. Philadelphia will host the Giants on Sunday (more on this and the other playoff games in a minute).
So to sum up New Year’s Eve, the Eagles won, the Flyers won, and the Cowboys choked on one. That’s a pretty good New Year’s as far as I’m concerned.
2007 did not start out as well. My daughter was sick and proceeded to barf all over me at about 7:30 in the morning on the 1st. I’ve yet to decide if getting yanked on is a good or bad omen for ’07. I’ll have to get back to you on that one.
Here are a few other random thoughts before I get to this weekend’s playoff games.
* Condolences to the family and friends of Broncos cornerback Darrent Williams, who was shot and killed early Monday morning outside a night club in Denver. The 24 year-old left behind two young children, and it sounds as though Williams was simply in the wrong place at the wrong time, which is a real shame.
* Tennessee Titans quarterback Vince Young and Houston Texans linebacker DeMeco Ryans were named offensive and defensive rookies of the year, and I completely agree with both choices. Can you believe the Texans could have had both?
* Is anybody really surprised that Nick Saban left the Dolphins to take the Alabama job? For starters, they waved a boatload of cash at him ($32 million guaranteed over eight years). Plus, he’s more suited to the college game as his records at Michigan State and LSU would indicate. Dolphins fans shouldn’t be too upset about losing Saban, as he only compiled a 15-17 record and no playoff appearances during his two-year tenure. There are plenty of guys that can do that.
* I had Tom Coughlin as the first coach to get the axe, but the Giants at least made it to the playoffs. I still think he’s dead man walking, but he’s not the first to be let go. That honor was shared between Jim Mora and Dennis Green, dismissed by Atlanta and Arizona, respectively. With Saban gone and Coughlin soon to follow (like, on Monday) there are already four head coaching vacancies in the NFL, and the season has only been officially over for three days.
* Interesting Stat #1 – In his last five starts, Cowboys QB Tony Romo has thrown eight interceptions and fumbled the ball seven times. By my count, that’s 15 turnovers, or three per start. Welcome to the Turnover Factory, Mr. Romo! Mr. Warner will now show you to your office, then Mr. Grossman will be taking you out to lunch.
* Interesting Stat #2 – The Philadelphia Eagles enter the playoffs on a five-game winning streak for the second time in franchise history. The last time they did so was 1949, when the Eagles went on to win the NFL Championship. Talk about a good omen.
In what must be termed a down year in terms of the picks, I finished 2006 with records of 157-99 straight up and 129-120-7 against the spread. Despite the fact that both marks declined from 2005, I still picked more winners than all but one of ESPN’s so-called “Experts,” and the one was Mike Golic, a Notre Dame guy, so I’m cool with that.
One final piece of business. Last year, when I made my playoff picks, I did so for the entire post-season in one fell swoop. Courtesy of the coin toss system, I predicted the NFC without flaw, which was pretty funny. I have opted to go week by week this year, starting with this weekend’s wild card games. I’ll even give you scores.
Saturday, January 6th, 2007
The Match-up: Kansas City (+6.5) @ Indianapolis
The Skinny: Herm Edwards has been adamant that the Chiefs did not back into the playoffs, and on some level I agree with him. Kansas City did win their final two games to get to 9-7, but they only got in because some other teams (notably, Denver) threw it in the tank. KC didn’t back in, the Broncos backed out. Now some people are thinking the Chiefs can upset the Colts, and with the combination of Larry Johnson and Indy’s run defense, it’s not out of the realm of possibility. However, I could see Peyton Manning running a perfect two-minute drill to put Indianapolis ahead for good late in the game.
Straight Up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Kansas City
The Score: Colts 24, Chiefs 20
The Match-up: Dallas (+3.0) @ Seattle
The Skinny: Neither team is exactly on a roll right now. Both the Seahawks and Cowboys have lost three of their last four, the difference being Seattle hung on to win their mediocre division. That’s why this game is being played in the Pacific Northwest. Dallas’ defense has been an abomination, surrendering 131 points in their last four games. No reason to think that Matt Hasselbeck and Shaun Alexander can’t run roughshod over the Cowboys.
Straight Up: Seattle
Against the Spread: Seattle
The Score: Seahawks 34, Cowboys 23
Sunday, January 7th, 2007
The Match-up: New York Jets (+9.0) @ New England
The Skinny: The two played tight games both times they faced each other this year, with the Patriots winning 24-17 in Foxboro and the Jets 17-14 in the swamps of Jersey. Much has been made of the contentious relationship between Bill Belichick and Eric Mangini, but hopefully that doesn’t overshadow what might be the most entertaining game of the weekend. It’s January, it’s Foxboro, it’s Brady and Belichick, therefore it’s the Pats in a close one.
Straight Up: New England
Against the Spread: New York Jets
The Score: Patriots 24, Jets 23
The Match-up: New York Giants (+6.5) @ Philadelphia
The Skinny: I’ll admit I was a little nervous when I saw the kind of numbers Tiki Barber put up against the Redskins on Saturday – 23 carries, 234 yards, 3 scores. Tiki, like his brother, has been a thorn in the Eagles side before. But the more I thought about it, I began to realize that the Birds dominated the Giants for seven of the nine quarters they played this year, the two exceptions being the fourth quarter and overtime of their Week 2 match up when Andy Reid went Marty Schottenheimer and took the air our of the ball. With Jeff Garcia at quarterback, the Eagles offense is perhaps the most balanced of the playoff teams. The offensive line has played very well of late, and the defense seems to have turned a corner during this five-game winning streak. The Eagles will take Tiki out of play and make She-li Manning win the game for New York, and I don’t think he’s capable of doing that.
Straight Up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia
The Score: Eagles 31, Giants 17
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