The Week 8 Picks

Last weekend was interesting.

Let’s start with the fact that I attended the Eagles-Bears game in Philly courtesy of my buddy Long Legs, who hooked us up with some sweet seats. We had such a good view that I could see first-hand just how mediocre the Eagles receivers really are. Reggie Brown and Kevin Curtis both dropped balls, Brown’s a sure touchdown that could have rendered Chicago’s 97-yard game-winning drive irrelevant. As it is, the Birds are 2-4, head to Minnesota this weekend, then host Dallas the following Sunday.

In case you couldn’t already tell, the sky is falling in Philadelphia.

During the post-mortem that was the Monday flight home, I read an interesting stat in the Philadelphia Daily News regarding the Eagles’ sudden red zone ineptitude. Excluding the demolition of the Lions in Week 3, the offense has entered the red zone 15 times and come away with exactly two touchdowns. And field goals do not typically pave the way to victory.

So what can the Eagles do to salvage their season? For one thing, the solution isn’t to bench Donovan McNabb in favor of Kevin Kolb, as one genius in the section over from me suggested. (And, no, it wasn’t Pennsylvania Governor Ed Rendell).




The fix for the Eagles is actually quite simple: Be better.

Andy Reid and Marty Mornhinweg need to be better at red-zone play-calling, which includes keeping Brian Westbrook heavily involved via the run. Donovan McNabb needs to be better at putting the football in places where his guys can catch it. And, perhaps most importantly, the receivers have to actually hold on to the ball. The defense could also be better at pressuring the quarterback, especially in a prevent situation. The special teams could certainly be better at establishing field position.

I may be in the minority, but I think the Eagles can still turn this thing around. And even if this season goes by the boards, their proverbial window of opportunity can be extended. How, you ask?

Trade for Ocho Cinco.

I know, I know, we’ve been down the road of the Prima Donna wide receiver before, and it didn’t end well. But it sure started well. See, there’s one huge difference between OC and TO. OC may be loud and brash and egotistical. OC has never been divisive, despite his end-zone and sideline antics.

There are a lot of factors that would have to fall into place. The rumor is that the Bengals will try to trade OC, but it’s purely conjecture at this point. Assuming they do try and trade him, they’ll probably demand a king’s ransom. Is he worth a mid-to-late first round pick? Eagles owner Jeffery Lurie would also have to buy in to the whole thing, and he was burned badly by TO. What I’m saying is, there’s an 85% chance it won’t happen.

But imagine if it did…

For the record, last week also represented my best gambling week of the season. Not sure what’s worse – the fact that 8-6 is my high water mark for the year, or the fact that it took me seven weeks to get there. Come to think of it, let’s just move on.

Sunday, October 28, 2007

The Match-up: Detroit (+5.0) @ Chicago
The Skinny: So will Brian Griese play like Peyton Manning as he did in orchestrating the two-minute offense to perfection in the comeback win at Philly? Or will he regress and play like, well, like Brian Griese?
Straight Up: Chicago
Against the Spread: Chicago

The Match-up: Pittsburgh (-3.5) @ Cincinnati
The Skinny: No way Omar Epps lets the Steelers lapse in consecutive weeks. Losing in Denver is unconscionable. Losing in Cincinnati would be unforgivable.
Straight Up: Pittsburgh
Against the Spread: Pittsburgh

The Match-up: Indianapolis (-6.5) @ Carolina
The Skinny: This would be a potential trap game for the Colts if they weren’t facing a team quarterbacked by 71-year old Vinny Testaverde.
Straight Up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Indianapolis

The Match-up: Oakland (+7.5) @ Tennessee
The Skinny: Admit it – you saw Tennessee put up 38 points last week and thought for sure Vince Young went off. No, that would have been Rod Bironas setting an NFL record by booting eight field goals last week.
Straight Up: Tennessee
Against the Spread: Oakland

The Match-up: Cleveland (-3.0) @ St. Louis
The Skinny: Steven Jackson is back and imploring fans to start him on their fantasy teams this week. Seeing as I traded for Jackson a couple of weeks ago, I’ll oblige.
Straight Up: St. Louis
Against the Spread: St. Louis

The Match-up: New York Giants (-9.5) @ Scottish Claymores (er, the Miami Dolphins)
The Skinny: Actually the Claymores, nee of the NFL Europe league, might give the Giants a better game. Why is the NFL trying to promote its game via the Miami Dolphins? Are they that internationally recognizable?
Straight Up: New York Giants
Against the Spread: New York Giants

The Match-up: Philadelphia (-1.0) @ Minnesota
The Skinny: If you’re Brad Childress, why aren’t you giving the ball to Adrian Peterson 25 times a game? AD only carried it 12 times last week in Dallas. He should be a workhorse…starting next week.
Straight Up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia

The Match-up: Buffalo (+3.0) @ New York Jets
The Skinny: Somehow, someway, the 1-6 Jets are favored over the juggernaut 2-4 Bills. That tells me a lot about Buffalo’s chances.
Straight Up: New York Jets
Against the Spread: New York Jets

The Match-up: Houston (NL) @ San Diego
The Skinny: The league has yet to determine if, when, or where this game will be played. I’m sure those details are the least concerns of the people of San Diego.
Straight Up: San Diego
Against the Spread: San Diego

The Match-up: Jacksonville (+4.0) @ Tampa Bay
The Skinny: The Jaguars are down to essentially their third string quarterback, a guy named Quinn Gray who wears a heavily-tinted visor a la LaDanian Tomlinson. The NFL is so upside down this year that this is the kind of game Jacksonville will win.
Straight Up: Tampa Bay
Against the Spread: Jacksonville

The Match-up: New Orleans (-3.0) @ San Francisco
The Skinny: The 49ers welcome back quarterback Alex Smith, who will likely hand the ball to Frank Gore early and often. The Saints appear to have been revived and believe it or not can still challenge for the NFC South title.
Straight Up: New Orleans
Against the Spread: New Orleans

The Match-up: Washington (+16.5) @ New England
The Skinny: Like the Colts, the Patriots face what could be viewed as a trap game. But this Pats team is playing with such an attitude; they’ll probably beat up on the Redskins as if they’ve seen them on video.
Straight Up: New England
Against the Spread: New England

Monday, October 29, 2007

The Match-up: Green Bay (+3.0) @ Denver
The Skinny: If the Red Sox sweep Colorado (which looks entirely possible at this point), there won’t be a conflict between the Broncos game and Game 5 of the World Series. Want to have some fun? Find a Sox fan and tell them that their team has morphed into the Yankees. They love that.
Straight Up: Green Bay
Against the Spread: Green Bay

Bye: Arizona, Atlanta, Baltimore, Dallas, Kansas City, Seattle
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Week 7: 9-5 straight up; 8-6 against the spread
Season: 60-43; 42-53-8

The Week 7 Picks

Sunday, October 21, 2007

The Match-up: Tennessee (-1.5) @ Houston
The Skinny: The overwhelming story line remains the fact that Houston passed on native son Vince Young and he burned them twice last season. I know he’s dinged up, but you just know VY will play and likely be the difference maker – again.
Straight Up: Tennessee
Against the Spread: Tennessee

The Match-up: Tampa Bay (+2.0) @ Detroit
The Skinny: The Bucs have been one of the more pleasant surprises this season, yet they’re a dog on the road in Detroit. Tampa QB Jeff Garcia had a cup of coffee with the Lions a few years back and didn’t exactly light it up.
Straight Up: Detroit
Against the Spread: Detroit

The Match-up: New England (-16.5) @ Miami
The Skinny: Every week the Patriots are a double-digit favorite and every week I take the underdog and the points. A few problems with that strategy: 1) The Dolphins suck; 2) The Patriots are playing with a severe chip on their shoulder; 3) There’s no way New England is looking ahead to their potential AFC Championship game with the Colts next week.
Straight Up: New England
Against the Spread: New England

The Match-up: Atlanta (+9.0) @ New Orleans
The Skinny: Fresh off their Monday night loss to the Giants, the Falcons will elevate QB Byron Leftwich to the top of the depth chart. Whether or not he can elevate the Falcons remains to be seen.
Straight Up: New Orleans
Against the Spread: Atlanta

The Match-up: San Francisco (+9.0) @ New York Giants
The Skinny: Memo to 49ers cornerbacks – you may want to actually cover Plaxico Burress. He’ll be the guy behind you on his way to the end zone.
Straight Up: New York Giants
Against the Spread: New York Giants

The Match-up: Baltimore (-3.0) @ Buffalo
The Skinny: When last we saw the Bills, they were scaring the crap out of the Cowboys two Mondays ago. The problem is, that was their Super Bowl. No way they get up like that this week, especially against former Bill Willis McGahee who will likely run a little harder on Sunday.
Straight Up: Baltimore
Against the Spread: Baltimore

The Match-up: Arizona (+8.5) @ Washington
The Skinny: Kurt Warner will likely play (at least part-time) despite torn ligaments in his non-throwing elbow. The Cards will also have WR Anquan Boldin back from a hip injury.
Straight Up: Washington
Against the Spread: Arizona

The Match-up: Kansas City (+2.5) @ Oakland
The Skinny: The Chiefs were comfortable enough with the progress of Priest Holmes that they traded back-up RB Michael Bennett to Tampa. If they have to use Holmes, it’s probably bad news for Kansas City.
Straight Up: Oakland
Against the Spread: Oakland

The Match-up: New York Jets (+6.5) @ Cincinnati
The Skinny: Has there been a more disappointing team then the Bengals this season? Their defense is so bad that I even think the Jets can put up some points. Maybe not enough to win, but they’ll hang around.
Straight Up: Cincinnati
Against the Spread: New York Jets

The Match-up: Chicago (+5.5) @ Philadelphia
The Skinny: Last time I attended an Eagles game (December 2004), Donovan McNabb threw for over 300 yards and 5 TD’s…in the first half. Brian Westbrook scored three times and the Birds crushed the Packers. Guess where I’ll be on Sunday?
Straight Up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia

The Match-up: St. Louis (+8.5) @ Seattle
The Skinny: I think the Seahawks learned a lesson about taking a winless team lightly once the Saints marched in and did them in their own backyard. I don’t think Mike Holmgren will let that happen again.
Straight Up: Seattle
Against the Spread: Seattle

The Match-up: Minnesota (+9.5) @ Dallas
The Skinny: I believe some guy gave you Adrian Peterson as the rookie of the year for 2007. How’s he doing so far? He’s only leading the league in rushing and just hung 224 yards on the Bears last week. Hope TOFU has his popcorn ready for the "AD" show. "AD," by the way, stands for "All Day."
Straight Up: Minnesota
Against the Spread: Minnesota

The Match-up: Pittsburgh (-3.5) @ Denver
The Skinny: Flying under the radar thanks to all the attention being paid to New England and Indianapolis, the Steelers are having a great season and are looking at another win this week in Denver, who will be without WR Javon Walker indefinitely with a knee injury.
Straight Up: Pittsburgh
Against the Spread: Pittsburgh

Monday, October 22, 2007

The Match-up: Indianapolis (-3.0) @ Jacksonville
The Skinny: This is easily the most entertaining game of the weekend (except for the Eagles game, of course). The Jaguars always give the Colts fits, and now the Maurice Jones-Drew has awoken from his early-season slumber, I’d expect another tight one.
Straight Up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Indianapolis

Bye: Carolina, Cleveland, Green Bay, San Diego
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Week 5: 7-6 straight up; 4-7-2 against the spread
Season: 51-38; 34-47-8 (this is why I don’t gamble)

The Week 6 Picks

Sunday, October 14, 2007

The Match-up: Tennessee (+3.0) @ Tampa Bay
The Skinny: Bucs coach Jon Gruden is looking for a running back, even mentioning CB Ronde Barber’s twin brother by name. No such issues for Tennessee, whose QB is a better running back than anyone on Tampa’s active roster.
Straight Up: Tennessee
Against the Spread: Tennessee

The Match-up: Minnesota (+5.0) @ Chicago
The Skinny: The Bears absolutely had to have last week’s win over Green Bay to stay within shouting distance in the NFC North. Lucky for them, the Packers obliged.
Straight Up: Chicago
Against the Spread: Chicago

The Match-up: Houston (+6.5) @ Jacksonville
The Skinny: Don’t look now, but the Jaguars are 3-1, playing good defense, and their running game is starting to round into form. It’s a shame they don’t play in the NFC or they may have clinched a playoff berth by now.
Straight Up: Jacksonville
Against the Spread: Houston

The Match-up: Miami (+4.5) @ Cleveland
The Skinny: Enough with the Joey Porter vs. Kellen Winslow trash talk. Can we just let the two of them beat each other into submission so we don’t have to watch them play this week?
Straight Up: Cleveland
Against the Spread: Cleveland

The Match-up: St. Louis (+9.5) @ Baltimore
The Skinny: The Ravens squeaked by a San Francisco team quarterbacked by Trent Dilfer. This week they get a Rams team with Gus Frerotte under center. Seems we’ve been down this road before…
Straight Up: Baltimore
Against the Spread: St. Louis

The Match-up: Washington (+3.0) @ Green Bay
The Skinny: Here’s the story of the Packers running game. It stinks. The end. Not being able to run the ball against a very good Redskins defense means Green Bay will follow its 8-game winning streak with a two-game slide.
Straight Up: Washington
Against the Spread: Washington

The Match-up: Cincinnati (-3.0) @ Kansas City
The Skinny: How bad is the AFC West? The Chiefs are 2-3 and have scored 63 points this season. That’s good enough for second place in the division, a half game behind the surging Oakland Raiders. I only wish I was kidding.
Straight Up: Cincinnati
Against the Spread: Cincinnati

The Match-up: Philadelphia (-3.0) @ New York Jets
The Skinny: I know it seems like the sky is falling in Philly. But starting this week, the Eagles go to New York to take on the 1-4 Jets, then host the 2-3 Bears (with this guy in attendance), then get the Vikings in Minnesota. Loosely translated – the Birds sould be 4-3 heading into their Monday nighter with Dallas, a.k.a. the worst 5-0 team in history.
Straight Up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia

The Match-up: Carolina (+4.0) @ Arizona
The Skinny: Good back up QB situation? Arizona’s Matt Leinart goes down for the season with a broken collarbone and is replaced by a two-time NFL MVP and Super Bowl champion. Bad back up QB situation? Carolina’s Jake Del-overrated is done for the year with an elbow injury, meaning the Panthers will start either David Carr and his ailing back or 62-year old Vinny Testaverde, who was signed this week.
Straight Up: Arizona
Against the Spread: Arizona

The Match-up: Oakland (+9.5) @ San Diego
The Skinny: Sorry, but a 41-3 beat down of the Broncos does not mean the Chargers are back. Denver isn’t even as good as their 2-3 record. San Diego may win again and start to put a streak together, but the Raiders will make them earn it.
Straight Up: San Diego
Against the Spread: Oakland

The Match-up: New England (-5.5) @ Dallas
The Skinny: Dallas may be unbeaten, but they’re highly overrated. They beat the Giants despite surrendering 35 points, then struggled with winless Miami (trailing in the second half), beat the Bears (not that good), knocked off the winless Rams, then needed smoke and mirrors to overtake the 1-4 Buffalo Bills. Dallas’ opponents are a combined 6-19. New England is going to beat them by at least 20.
Straight Up: New England
Against the Spread: New England

The Match-up: New Orleans (+6.5) @ Seattle
The Skinny: Break out the paper bags, Saints fans, "The Ain’ts" are back!
Straight Up: Seattle
Against the Spread: Seattle

Monday, October 15, 2007

The Match-up: New York Giants (-3.5) @ Atlanta
The Skinny: Not sure if it matters whether or not the Falcons start Joey Harrington or Byron Leftwich at quarterback. Either way, they could learn a lesson from the Eagles and try to block Osi Umenyiora.
Straight Up: New York Giants
Against the Spread: New York Giants

Bye: Buffalo, Denver, Detroit, Indianapolis, Pittsburgh, San Francisco
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Week 5: 9-5 straight up; 7-7 against the spread
Season: 44-32; 30-40-6

The Week 5 Picks

"The Eagles need to pull out the yellow and blue jerseys again." – Christopher Benson, on the heels of the Eagles’ embarrassing 16-3 loss to the Giants in Week 4.

What’s worse, the fact that the Eagles have scored twice as many points in their one win where they busted out the Team Sweden throwbacks than they have in their three losses combined, or the fact that Andy Reid still seems oblivious to the notion that you can win football games without chucking it 45 times a game?

I’m fearful that the Eagles system that has been so successful over the last nine years is starting to break down. Donovan McNabb could get away with mediocre receivers in the past because he was elusive, explosive, and a threat to run. Now that he’s had three major lower-body injuries in the last five years, he’s not as mobile as he used to be. The receivers they have can’t get any kind of separation from the defender, meaning opposing corners can play press man-to-man coverage and blitz the hell out of McNabb, who has basically two seconds to throw the ball before he gets sacked.

Here are three simple things they could do to help Donovan McNabb:
1. Bring in an elite wide receiver or two that can stretch the field – I know they used to have one who will remain nameless, but he was a piece of crap, so he had to go. Someone of his caliber who can get off a jam at the line of scrimmage and get downfield would be a tremendous asset.
2. Play a second tight end in lieu of a fullback – Against a two tight end set, opposing defenses probably wouldn’t play nickel, meaning they could sneak Brian Westbrook out of the backfield against a safety or linebacker, which is a favorable match-up no matter who’s trying to defend him.
3. Run the football more – Westbrook can do it, Correll Buckhalter can do it, I’d bet even Tony Hunt could do it if given the chance. But the bottom line is they need to be more balanced on offense. I thought Reid would have learned this lesson last November, but evidently not.

Look, it’s still waaaaaaaaaaaaaaay to early to press the panic button. The fact is, other than Dallas and Green Bay, nobody’s running away in the NFC. I know Seattle is 3-1 (and I think they may have already clinched the West) and Tampa Bay is off to a nice start, but they aren’t considered elite teams yet. Chicago and New Orleans are both in the tank, and everybody’s sleepers San Francisco and Arizona have quarterback issues. The Birds have played without pro-bowlers Brian Dawkins, Lito Sheppard, William "Tra" Thomas, tight end L.J. Smith, and their MVP, Westbrook. If the Eagles can get healthy over the bye week and string together a few wins, they’ll be right back in the playoff picture.

It’s also too early to press the panic button on my picks. Last week, nine underdogs not only covered but won outright. So it’s not just me struggling through these games. If Vegas can’t get it right, who can? I am, however, reverting to simply picking by gut feel. Starting right now.

Sunday, October 7, 2007

The Match-up: Atlanta (+8.5) @ Tennessee
The Skinny: OK, Vince Young, I’m sold. Young has carried the Titans to a 2-1 record, including 2-0 on the road and a narrow two-point home loss to the defending champion Colts. I know Joey Harrington has played well in his last two games, but even a broken clock is right twice a day.
Straight Up: Tennessee
Against the Spread: Tennessee

The Match-up: Miami (+5.5) @ Houston
The Skinny: Despite his team’s struggles, Miami’s Ronnie Brown is putting up monster numbers this season, averaging better than five yards a carry. Too bad he can’t play quarterback.
Straight Up: Houston
Against the Spread: Houston

The Match-up: Jacksonville (-2.0) @ Kansas City
The Skinny: Kansas City WR Dwayne Bowe looks like the early front-runner for offensive rookie of the year. Coincidentally, the Chiefs have won two straight after opening 0-2. And, the Chiefs are typically tough to beat at Arrowhead Stadium. So why am I picking Jacksonville? Because despite all the things in Kansas City’s favor, they’re still an underdog. There’s got to be a reason why, right?
Straight Up: Jacksonville
Against the Spread: Jacksonville

The Match-up: Arizona (-3.5) @ St. Louis
The Skinny: If you’re Ken Whisenhunt, how can you not start Kurt Warner in St. Louis this week? As for the Rams, Gus Frerotte handing off to Brian Leonard…is this Week 5 or the pre-season?
Straight Up: Arizona
Against the Spread: Arizona

The Match-up: Cleveland (+16.5) @ New England
The Skinny: Looking for a chink in the Patriots’ armor? How about this – after scoring 38 point in each of their first three games this season, they only managed 34 against Cincinnati on Monday. They’re slipping.
Straight Up: New England
Against the Spread: Cleveland

The Match-up: Carolina (+3.0) @ New Orleans
The Skinny: So much for that vaunted Saints offense. New Orleans has only managed to score 38 points this season. Hell, that’s one week’s total for the Patriots. Or a half for the Eagles. If the Saints don’t get it going this week (without Deuce McAllister, who is out for the year with a torn ACL), you can go ahead and throw dirt on them.
Straight Up: New Orleans
Against the Spread: New Orleans

The Match-up: New York Jets (+3.5) @ New York Giants
The Skinny: After surrendering 97 points in their first ten quarters of the season, the Giants defense has given up only three in six quarters since. My guess is that they won’t notch 12 sacks against Chad Pennington and the Jets, but the Giants defense could make the difference in The Jersey Bowl.
Straight Up: New York Giants
Against the Spread: New York Giants

The Match-up: Seattle (+5.5) @ Pittsburgh
The Skinny: No revenge for the Seahawks in this Super Bowl rematch. Seattle’s pass defense has been torched this year, and Steelers WR Santonio Holmes is averaging move than 20 yards per catch.
Straight Up: Pittsburgh
Against the Spread: Pittsburgh

The Match-up: Detroit (+3.5) @ Washington
The Skinny: Typically, one-dimensional teams are easier to defend. And despite their high-powered passing offense, the Lions simply cannot run the football. Washington’s secondary is very good, and they’ll have their hands full with Roy Williams. But the Redskins are a good running, ball control team and should be able to keep Jon Kitna and company on the sidelines for large chunks of time.
Straight Up: Washington
Against the Spread: Washington

The Match-up: Tampa Bay (+10.0) @ Indianapolis
The Skinny: The bad news for the Bucs? RB Carnell "Cadillac" Williams was placed on injured reserve with a torn patella tendon. The good news? Michael Pittman and Earnest Graham appear capable of carrying the load. The bad news? The Bucs head to Indianapolis this week. The good news? Anyone?
Straight Up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Indianapolis

The Match-up: San Diego (+1.5) @ Denver
The Skinny: So what’s wrong with the Chargers? Was it all Marty Schottenheimer? Not exactly. Remember, the Chargers lost their offensive and defensive coordinators to head coaching vacancies, then GM A.J. Smith fired Schottenheimer. Young QB Philip Rivers is now in his third offensive system in four seasons (no wonder he’s struggling), and his troubles are magnified by the fact that defenses are ganging up on LT and challenging Rivers to beat them. So far, he hasn’t.
Straight Up: Denver
Against the Spread: Denver

The Match-up: Baltimore (-3.5) @ San Francisco
The Skinny: Subplots abound in this one, with former Super Bowl champion QB Trent Dilfer facing his old Ravens club, the same club with which 49ers head coach Mike Nolan cut his NFL teeth. Baltimore’s defense hasn’t look as menacing as in seasons past, and this could be Frank Gore’s official coming out party for the 2007 season.
Straight Up: San Francisco
Against the Spread: San Francisco

The Match-up: Chicago (+3.0) @ Green Bay
The Skinny: Maybe it wasn’t all "Train Wrecks" Grossman’s fault. The Bears finally made a QB switch last week, and Brian Griese threw three picks in a Chicago loss. QB isn’t the issue with the Bears. The lack of a running game is. Letting Thomas Jones walk in the off-season was a horrible decision that is now coming home to roost.
Straight Up: Green Bay
Against the Spread: Green Bay

Monday, October 8, 2007

The Match-up: Dallas (-10.0) @ Buffalo
The Skinny: Nobody circles the wagons like the Buffalo Bills!
Straight Up: Buffalo
Against the Spread: Buffalo

Bye: Cincinnati, Minnesota, Oakland, Philadelphia
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Week 4: 5-9 straight up; 5-9 against the spread
Season: 35-27; 23-33-6

The Week 4 Picks

There are an abnormal number of road favorites this week, and as I am heading on the road myself, the picks will be brief in nature.

Sunday, September 30, 2007

The Match-up: Green Bay (-1.5) @ Minnesota
The Skinny: The Packers have one nine straight games dating back to 2006, and are 3-0 against three playoff teams of a year ago. Impressive. Brett Favre in a dome? Not impressive.
Straight Up: Minnesota
Against the Spread: Minnesota

The Match-up: Houston (-3.0) @ Atlanta
The Skinny: Matt Schaub torches the Falcons in his homecoming effort.
Straight Up: Houston
Against the Spread: Houston

The Match-up: New York Jets (-3.5) @ Buffalo
The Skinny: The Jets run defense hasn’t been good, but they’re facing a rookie starting quarterback, so they’ll key on Marshawn Lynch.
Straight Up: New York Jets
Against the Spread: New York Jets

The Match-up: Baltimore (-4.5) @ Cleveland
The Skinny: Speaking of poor run defenses, the Browns are allowing 176 yards per game on the ground. Hello, Willis McGahee!
Straight Up: Baltimore
Against the Spread: Baltimore

The Match-up: St. Louis (+12.5) @ Dallas
The Skinny: If you don’t know the name Brian Leonard, you will by Sunday at 4:15.
Straight Up: St. Louis
Against the Spread: St. Louis

The Match-up: Chicago (-2.5) @ Detroit
The Skinny: Brian Griese gets the start for Chicago in place of the ineffective "Wrecks" Grossman.
Straight Up: Chicago
Against the Spread: Chicago

The Match-up: Oakland (+4.0) @ Miami
The Skinny: Can you call this a homecoming for Daunte Culpepper? He did only play five games for Miami, and not well at that.
Straight Up: Oakland
Against the Spread: Oakland

The Match-up: Seattle (-2.0) @ San Francisco
The Skinny: The road has not been kind to the Seahawks in the past.
Straight Up: Seattle
Against the Spread: Seattle

The Match-up: Tampa Bay (Off) @ Carolina
The Skinny: Carolina may start David Carr at quarterback with Jake Del-overrated on the shelf.
Straight Up: Tampa Bay
Against the Spread: Tampa Bay

The Match-up: Pittsburgh (-6.0) @ Arizona
The Skinny: Fortunately for the Northeast Box Company, Kurt Warner came in last week and started throwing the ball to Anquan Boldin.
Straight Up: Pittsburgh
Against the Spread: Pittsburgh

The Match-up: Kansas City (+11.5) @ San Diego
The Skinny: The Saints think the Chargers are struggling.
Straight Up: San Diego
Against the Spread: Kansas City

The Match-up: Denver (+9.5) @ Indianapolis
The Skinny: I knew Denver was bad, yet couldn’t talk myself into a Jaguars upset last week. No such convincing needed this week.
Straight Up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Indianapolis

The Match-up: Philadelphia (-3.0) @ New York Giants
The Skinny: Justice for me would have been Donovan McNabb entering his post-game press conference last week and, without saying a word, holding up a sign with his stats (21/26, 381 Yards, 4 TD, 0 INT, perfect QB rating) and a middle finger for all of his critics.
Straight Up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia

Monday, October 1, 2007

The Match-up: New England (-7.0) @ Cincinnati
The Skinny: this is the kind of game where the Bengals will explode and scare the crap out of Bill Beli-cheat.
Straight Up: New England
Against the Spread: Cincinnati

Bye: Jacksonville, New Orleans, Tennessee, Washington
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Week 2: 9-7 straight up; 5-8-3 against the spread
Season: 30-18; 18-24-6

The Week 3 Picks

Please forgive me if I seem a little irritable.

You see, as my sports teams go, I go. And right now, nothing seems to be working for me. Yes, the Fightin’ Phils are making a push for their first playoff appearance since 1993. Sure, Flyers training camp is open and they looked poised to return to contender status after a one year blip off the NHL’s radar.

I shouldn’t be focused on the Phillies and Flyers at this time of year, but that’s what happens when my college football team scores like A.C. Green, and when I watch my pro football team stumble out of the gate like a three-legged horse. I’m about as angry as O.J. busting commando-style into a hotel room looking for some stolen memorabilia. And now I’ll be dropping F-bombs like Samuel L. Jackson and Denis Leary, so if foul language offends you, feel free to skip ahead to the picks…

Let’s start with Notre Dame and their offensive ineptitude. I know they’re rebuilding (sorry, Charlie, that’s the word), but this is ridiculous. The Michigan game was a fucking embarrassment. It’s like there wasn’t even an offensive line on the field. Two of the first five snaps went over Jimmy Clausen’s head. They can’t run block (as evidenced by their 120th-ranked rushing offense, worst in the NCAA), nor can they pass block (Irish quarterbacks have been sacked 23 times in three games, also an NCAA worst). On one play, the Wolverines rushed only their four down linemen AND ALL FOUR TACKLED CLAUSEN AT THE SAME TIME!!! What the fuck is that about? How does that even happen? You’d think the five O-linemen might at least get a piece of somebody. The defense may be the strength of the team, and they are on the field for 45 fucking minutes a game because the offense can’t sustain drives. Charlie Weis says they’re going back to the drawing board and starting over, but in the immortal words of S. Phil Hunter, "you can’t make chicken salad out of chicken shit." Take a look at the schedule and see who’s on the horizon – Michigan State (who always gives us fits), Purdue (ditto), UCLA, Boston Fucking College (that’s their official name, by the way), and USC. To be honest, I’m not sure I feel good about Stanford and the service academies, either. Can we beat Duke? Are we really looking at 1-11? I think I need a barf bag.

Remember last year when Donovan McNabb tore his ACL and the Eagles rallied around Brian Westbrook and a renewed commitment to the running game? Well, neither do they. Why the hell are they still throwing the ball 75 percent of the time when you’ve got Westbrook averaging better than five yards per carry? Is Marty Mornhinweg still calling the plays, or is he locked in an equipment trunk somewhere? Reggie Brown and Kevin Curtis are dropping the ball like it’s a fucking hand grenade without a pin. The only guy that catches the ball consistently is Hank Baskett, and he’s basically been relegated to special teams because Andy Reid’s got a boner for Jason Avant. During Monday night’s debacle against Washington, I actually - you may want to sit for this – wished they could get T.O. back. Is it really a coincidence that the one time they made it to the Super Bowl they actually had a legitimate number one receiver?

Look, there’s not a bigger McNabb fan on the planet than me. I’ve been his biggest supporter during his entire tenure in Philly, and he’s been unfairly criticized a lot. Never has a superstar quarterback been asked to do so much with so little. But he shouldn’t be the focal point of the offense, especially if he’s only operating at 80% efficiency right now as he recovers from his ACL surgery. They’ve got to do a better job of running the ball, committing to it 25-30 times a game between Westbrook, Correll Buckhalter, and even Tony Hunt if the other two are spent.

And if McNabb is accurate in his assessment that they need to close the deal sooner than later (and I agree, by the way), they’d better do something about the play-calling and the pu-pu platter of receivers before they have to blow the whole thing up and start over.

Serenity now…serenity now.

Sunday, September 23, 2007

The Match-up: Indianapolis (-6.0) @ Houston
The Skinny: At full strength, I think the Texans could give the Colts a game. No, seriously. But they’ll be without the most under-the-radar WR in the league, Andre Johnson, who’s got a bum knee.
Straight Up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Indianapolis

The Match-up: Buffalo (+16.5) @ New England
The Skinny: I’m not sure if Sunday’s game told me more about the Patriots or the Chargers. Either way, I’m convinced that the Pats are the best team in the league right now. I guess Randy Moss feels like playing this year.
Straight Up: New England
Against the Spread: Buffalo

The Match-up: Miami (+3.0) @ New York Jets
The Skinny: My buddy Keith calls this the "Squish the Fish" game. But Dolphins aren’t fish, they’re mammals. Either way, I think they’ll get squished.
Straight Up: New York Jets
Against the Spread: New York Jets

The Match-up: Detroit (+6.0) @ Philadelphia
The Skinny: Yes, the Eagles are 0-2. They were also 0-2 in 2003, then won 12 of their next 13 and finished the year as the top seed in the NFC. So while I may be concerned, I’m not pushing the panic button…yet.
Straight Up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia

The Match-up: San Francisco (+9.0) @ Pittsburgh
The Skinny: Yes, the Steelers have looked great this season, albeit against inferior opponents Cleveland and Buffalo. It’s not like the 49ers are the ’72 Dolphins, but they should provide a better assessment as to how good the Steelers really are.
Straight Up: Pittsburgh
Against the Spread: Pittsburgh

The Match-up: St. Louis (+3.5) @ Tampa Bay
The Skinny: While neither has offense has lit the world on fire so far, at least the Rams have the potential to explode. Sooner or later, Steven Jackson is going to bust out. Not sure the same can be said of "Cadillac" Williams.
Straight Up: St. Louis
Against the Spread: St. Louis

The Match-up: San Diego (-5.0) @ Green Bay
The Skinny: Dating back to last season, the Packers are on an eight game winning streak. But the Chargers need a rebound after Sunday’s abysmal performance in Foxboro.
Straight Up: San Diego
Against the Spread: Green Bay

The Match-up: Arizona (+8.0) @ Baltimore
The Skinny: New Cardinals head coach should be plenty familiar with the Ravens having spent some time with their division-rival Steelers. This game could come down to the field goal kickers, and Neil Rackers and Matt Stover can both boot them.
Straight Up: Baltimore
Against the Spread: Arizona

The Match-up: Minnesota (+3.0) @ Kansas City
The Skinny: The Vikings are making me look pretty smart for tabbing them as my sleeper team for this year.
Straight Up: Minnesota
Against the Spread: Minnesota

The Match-up: Cleveland (+3.0) @ Oakland
The Skinny: Wait, those were really the Cleveland Browns racking up 51 points last week? They may not score 51 points over the next four weeks.
Straight Up: Oakland
Against the Spread: Oakland

The Match-up: Cincinnati (+3.5) @ Seattle
The Skinny: Maybe the Bengals defense isn’t new and improved. I’m sure a lot of people picked them up on waivers for their fantasy teams and got burned.
Straight Up: Seattle
Against the Spread: Seattle

The Match-up: Jacksonville (+3.0) @ Denver
The Skinny: The Broncos have to be the most unimpressive 2-0 team in the league. They needed a last second field goal to beat Buffalo, and overtime to knock off Oakland. At home against a Jacksonville team that can’t seem to find its offense, they’re probably looking at another squeaker.
Straight Up: Denver
Against the Spread: Denver

The Match-up: Carolina (-3.5) @ Atlanta
The Skinny: I figure if I keep picking them to win, maybe they’ll lose (since they’ve already screwed me twice this season).
Straight Up: Carolina
Against the Spread: Carolina

The Match-up: New York Giants (+3.5) @ Washington
The Skinny: I thought the MNF guys made a good point the other night – all of Washington’s starters in the secondary are former first-round picks. So glad the Eagles decided to chuck it 46 times against them. Serenity now…serenity now.
Straight Up: Washington
Against the Spread: Washington

The Match-up: Dallas (+3.0) @ Chicago
The Skinny: If I’m Lovie Smith, I’m getting Devin Hester on the field in every possible situation. I say he breaks one against the stinkin’ Cowboys.
Straight Up: Chicago
Against the Spread: Chicago

Monday, September 24, 2007

The Match-up: Tennessee (+4.0) @ New Orleans
The Skinny: So were the Saints an anomaly last year, or are they truly better than they’ve been this year? They were outstanding in front of their home crowd in 2006. I’m banking on them feeding off that again.
Straight Up: New Orleans
Against the Spread: New Orleans
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Week 2: 9-7 straight up; 6-9-1 against the spread
Season: 21-11; 13-16-3

The Week 2 Picks

If you’re not cheating, you’re not trying.

I’m not sure who originally penned that phrase, but growing up playing sports, I heard it uttered countless times. I guess the implication was that athletes bend the rules in order to gain a competitive edge.

Here’s another one I heard a lot - It’s only cheating if you get caught.

Well, this week, the Patriots got caught. A team representative was nabbed for videotaping the Jets coaching staff in an effort to determine defensive calls and things of that nature. Obviously, it worked (the Pats rolled, 38-14). What’s worse, New England coach Bill Belichick is apparently a repeat offender, having been accused of these types of tactics before. It’s not like Roger Goodell came down hard. Belichick was assessed a $500,000 fine, the team another $250,000, and the Patriots will forfeit one of their two 2008 first-round picks. Personally, I think a suspension would have been in order, especially with some of the other, stiffer punishments doled out by the commish.

With all this in mind, I wonder about the legitimacy of the Patriots’ 24-21 win over the Eagles in Super Bowl XXXIX. As stated in this article, the evidence is damning. New England amassed only 45 yards in the first quarter, and 268 for the remaining three. The Eagles would blitz, and the Pats would run a little screen pass to that side.

Hmmmm…

So am I just crazy? Or am I a conspiracy theorist? Or am I a bitter Eagles fan who now feels like we deserved a better fate in that game?

Yes, yes, and yes.

And, if they were to somehow, some way award the Eagles a victory in that game, would I celebrate it three years later?

You bet your asterisk I would.

Sunday, September 16, 2007

The Match-up: Houston (+6.5) @ Carolina
The Skinny: So the good Jake Del-overrated showed up last week for the Panthers. Will he show up again?
Straight Up: Carolina
Against the Spread: Carolina

The Match-up: Atlanta (+10.0) @ Jacksonville
The Skinny: Neither of these teams impressed last week, with the Jaguars losing at home to Tennessee and the Falcons falling to Houston. If their opener is any indication, the Falcons should be able to run the ball at will, which will at the very least keep it close.
Straight Up: Jacksonville
Against the Spread: Atlanta

The Match-up: Indianapolis (-7.0) @ Tennessee
The Skinny: It seems like forever ago that the Colts opened their Super Bowl defense with a 31- point dismantling of the Saints. I bet Vince Young sees it every time he closes his eyes.
Straight Up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Indianapolis

The Match-up: San Francisco (+3.0) @ St. Louis
The Skinny: While San Francisco didn’t look great in winning last week, St. Louis looked awful in losing. Just a hunch here, but both teams are likely better than they showed a week ago.
Straight Up: San Francisco
Against the Spread: San Francisco

The Match-up: Green Bay (Pick) @ New York Giants
The Skinny: Now starting at quarterback for your New York Giants – the Pillsbury Throwboy!!!
Straight Up: Green Bay
Against the Spread: Green Bay

The Match-up: Buffalo (+9.5) @ Pittsburgh
The Skinny: A gimpy Travis Henry racked up 139 yards against Buffalo in Buffalo last week. Willie Parker should be chomping at the bit right now.
Straight Up: Pittsburgh
Against the Spread: Pittsburgh

The Match-up: Cincinnati (-6.5) @ Cleveland
The Skinny: Memo to Browns brain trust – I know you think you’re trying to protect your investment by keeping Brady Quinn on the sideline in a baseball cap. You’re going to have to start him sooner or later. Why not now?
Straight Up: Cincinnati
Against the Spread: Cincinnati

The Match-up: New Orleans (-3.5) @ Tampa Bay
The Skinny: Even in their hey day, the Buccaneers defense was susceptible to the run. Enter Deuce McAllister.
Straight Up: New Orleans
Against the Spread: New Orleans

The Match-up: Minnesota (+3.0) @ Detroit
The Skinny: With a win on Sunday, the Lions could be 2-0 for the first time since the Barry Sanders administration. But the Vikings are my sleeper for a reason. Their defense was sensational last week, and Adrian Peterson is as good as advertised.
Straight Up: Minnesota
Against the Spread: Minnesota

The Match-up: Dallas (-3.5) @ Miami
The Skinny: At least the Cowboys will be challenged by Miami’s defense.
Straight Up: Miami
Against the Spread: Miami

The Match-up: Seattle (-3.0) @ Arizona
The Skinny: Good omen for the Seahawks – they are 30-6 when Shaun Alexander runs for over 100 yards. Even if he has to carry the ball 30 times to get there.
Straight Up: Seattle
Against the Spread: Seattle

The Match-up: New York Jets (+10.0) @ Baltimore
The Skinny: I’m not sure why this line is so high. I’d venture to argue that the drop off from Steve McNair to Kyle Boller is greater than Chad Pennington to Kellen Clemens. I almost want to take the Jets to win outright.
Straight Up: Baltimore
Against the Spread: New York Jets

The Match-up: Kansas City (+12.0) @ Chicago
The Skinny: If the Bears defense can replicate their effort of a week ago, when they put the clamps on San Diego’s potent offense, Kansas City has pretty much no shot.
Straight Up: Chicago
Against the Spread: Chicago

The Match-up: Oakland (+10.0) @ Denver
The Skinny: Weird win for the Broncos last week. They outgained Buffalo 470-184, yet needed a Jason Elam field goal at the gun to beat the Bills. Not sure if I’m encouraged or discouraged by that kind of performance.
Straight Up: Denver
Against the Spread: Denver

The Match-up: San Diego (+3.5) @ New England
The Skinny: So, will “Videogate” be a distraction to the Patriots? Or, will they be able to beat San Diego without taped assistance? Until proven otherwise, I still don’t feel comfortable going against New England at home.
Straight Up: New England
Against the Spread: New England

Monday, September 17, 2007

The Match-up: Washington (+6.5) @ Philadelphia
The Skinny: Last week’s game illustrates just how important special teams are. If the Eagles could fair catch a punt, they’d be 1-0 right now. Welcome home, Reno Mahe!
Straight Up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia
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Week 1: 12-4 straight up; 7-7-2 against the spread
Season: 12-4; 7-7-2

The Week 1 Picks

Sunday, September 9, 2007

The Match-up: Denver (-3.0) @ Buffalo
The Skinny: Buffalo’s run defense surrendered an average of 141 yards a game last year. And what to the Broncos do best?
Straight Up: Denver
Against the Spread: Denver

The Match-up: Miami (+3.0) @ Washington
The Skinny: Redskins QB Jason Campbell barely played in the pre-season due to a knee injury and RB Clinton Portis didn’t suit up at all. Yet Washington is still favored in this game. That should tell you all you need to know about the Dolphins.
Straight Up: Washington
Against the Spread: Washington

The Match-up: Pittsburgh (-4.5) @ Cleveland
The Skinny: I know the Browns are sitting Brady Quinn because they play some tough defenses, including the Steelers, early in the year. But why not throw the kid in the pool and see if he can swim? I’m hoping for a big week from Steelers RB Willie Parker, first round draft choice of the Northeast Box Company.
Straight Up: Pittsburgh
Against the Spread: Pittsburgh

The Match-up: Tennessee (+6.5) @ Jacksonville
The Skinny: Even though David Garrard edged out Byron Leftwich for the QB job in Jacksonville, I wouldn’t look for much of an aerial attack from the Jaguars. With runners like Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew, why throw it at all?
Straight Up: Jacksonville
Against the Spread: Jacksonville

The Match-up: Kansas City (+3.0) @ Houston
The Skinny: I know Damon Huard was 5-1 as a starter for the Chiefs last year, but the Kansas City offense is still one-dimensional, and that one dimension missed most of training camp due to a contract hold out. I can’t see the Chiefs stumping Matt Schaub and the Texans.
Straight Up: Houston
Against the Spread: Houston

The Match-up: Philadelphia (-3.0) @ Green Bay
The Skinny: Including the post-season, Eagles head coach Andy Reid is 5-1 lifetime against his former employer. Make that 6-1.
Straight Up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia

The Match-up: Carolina (+1.0) @ St. Louis
The Skinny: Panthers QB Jake Del-overrated went undrafted in my 12 team, 14 player Fantasy Football league. Just thought it was worth mentioning.
Straight Up: St. Louis
Against the Spread: St. Louis

The Match-up: Atlanta (+3.0) @ Minnesota
The Skinny: Let’s see, one team is my sleeper for 2007, and the other will start Joey Harrington in place of the con-Vick-ted felon they had a season ago. Minnesota’s defense is very underrated, and should impact this game one way or another.
Straight Up: Minnesota
Against the Spread: Minnesota

The Match-up: New England (-6.5) @ New York Jets
The Skinny: This is a scary game for the Pats on many fronts. Richard Seymour and Rodney Harrison are out. Asante Samuel and Randy Moss haven’t played in a while. And, Eric Mangini is extremely motivated to face his former boss, the uber-genius Bill Belichick. I don’t know if the Jets will win, but they’ll keep it interesting.
Straight Up: New England
Against the Spread: New York Jets

The Match-up: Tampa Bay (+6.0) @ Seattle
The Skinny: It seems that nobody is talking about in the Seahawks as an NFC contender, but they could change all that on Sunday.
Straight Up: Seattle
Against the Spread: Seattle

The Match-up: Detroit (+1.5) @ Oakland
The Skinny: Honestly, I never thought I’d be talking about a match-up between the "high-powered Detroit offense" and "mauling Oakland defense." In truth, it could be the Raiders offense (or lack thereof) that decides this game.
Straight Up: Detroit
Against the Spread: Detroit

The Match-up: Chicago (+6.0) @ San Diego
The Skinny: Let’s hope this potential Super Bowl preview is more entertaining than the one witnessed last night.
Straight Up: San Diego
Against the Spread: San Diego

The Match-up: New York Giants (+5.5) @ Dallas
The Skinny: Dallas WR Terry Glenn will miss the game with a bad knee, but I’m sure she’ll be fine in the long-term. Eli Manning always starts the season relatively well.
Straight Up: New York Giants
Against the Spread: New York Giants

Monday, September 10, 2007

The Match-up: Baltimore (+2.5) @ Cincinnati
The Skinny: The line tells me a lot here. The Ravens are widely viewed as one of the top five teams in the AFC, yet they’re an underdog in Cincinnati. Ocho Cinco and Ray Lewis have already been trash-talking.
Straight Up: Cincinnati
Against the Spread: Cincinnati

The Match-up: Arizona (+3.0) @ San Francisco
The Skinny: Showcase game for two of the league’s up-and-coming QB’s, Arizona’s Matt Leinart and San Francisco’s Alex Smith.
Straight Up: San Francisco
Against the Spread: San Francisco

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Week 1: 1-0 Straight up; 0-1 Against the Spread
Season: 1-0; 0-1

Bombshells in New England and the Opening Night Pick

There's been a lot of news lately coming out of New England, and none of it has to do with anyone Tom Brady impregnated. For starters, DE Richard Seymour was placed on the Physically Unable to Perform (PUP) list, meaning he'll miss the first six weeks of the season. To make matters worse, S Rodney Harrison will be shelved for the first four after admitting to using performance-enhancing drugs. But the biggest shocker of all...the Patriots released WR Reche Caldwell! Needless to say, he was surprised...

For the love of God, someone please sign Reche Caldwell so I can keep using that picture!

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The NFL season officially starts tomorrow, with what should be an outstanding contest between the team that just climbed the mountain, and one of the leading contenders to knock them back down.

The Match-up: New Orleans (+6.0) @ Indianapolis
The Skinny: It's sort of a homecoming for both all-pro quarterbacks. Peyton Manning originally hails from New Orleans, and Drew Brees played his college ball at Purdue, about an hour away from Indianapolis. As for the game itself, here's an interesting trend: In each of the last three seasons, the defending Super Bowl champion has opened the season at home on Thursday...and won. Advantage, Indianapolis. The Saints, however, are 7-2 against the spread in their last nine road games. Advantage, Saints.
Straight up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: New Orleans

Up next - the rest of the Week 1 picks.

2007-08 Season Preview

The NFL season kicks off in less than a week, and so it’s time for the annual season preview. To be honest, I had grander plans for this correspondence, but I really wasn’t satisfied with the quality of the piece. Maybe I’m burned out and couldn’t commit the time necessary to get my points across, or maybe I’m just tired of the constant Michael con-Vick-t coverage. Either way, the preview is a down and dirty look at the upcoming campaign, including division standings, conference champions, MVP, rookie and coach of the year, and of course, your Super Bowl XLII champions (and if you’re surprised that I’ve tabbed the Philadelphia Eagles to hoist the Lombardi Trophy in Arizona next February, well then you’re obviously new to this).

Without further ado, the 2007-08 Season Preview (* indicates playoff team).

American Football Conference

East
1. New England Patriots* – The Pats are loaded from top to bottom. Tom Brady’s got a cache of weapons, and Bill Belichick knows how to deploy them all. As long as Randy Moss isn’t divisive, New England will be hard to stop.
2. New York Jets – Thanks to a tougher schedule (and due credit to Eric Mangini’s rookie campaign), the Jets won’t sneak up on anyone this season.
3. Miami Dolphins – They’re adjusting to new coach and a new quarterback, but they return the same old defense. Maybe too old, but that’s to be determined.
4. Buffalo Bills – Marv Levy couldn’t keep any of their free agents, and subsequently the Bills have slipped. Personally, I think rookie RB Marshawn Lynch will flop.

North
1. Pittsburgh Steelers* – Under Omar Epps, the Steelers will be more balanced on offense, yet still menacing on defense. I think Pittsburgh is the team to beat in this division.
2. Baltimore Ravens* – The addition of RB Willis McGahee should be mutually beneficial. Baltimore’s defense led the league in turnover margin a year ago.
3. Cincinnati Bengals – Sadly, they still don’t have the defense to compliment their explosive offense. Ocho Cinco has promised to put on a show this year. I’ll be watching.
4. Cleveland Browns – The future is bright, but the present is cloudy. QB Brady Quinn should be starting by Week 4 (if not sooner).

South
1. Indianapolis Colts* – Yes, they lost a lot on defense, but they’re still the class of the division. Like Phil Mickelson after busting out and winning a major, Peyton Manning seems poised for multiple championships.
2. Jacksonville Jaguars – The Jags are a dangerous team, but not a deadly one. Seems like they should have done more by now, doesn’t it?
Note: Just as I was getting ready to publish, the news broke that the Jaguars would start David Garrard at QB and cut ties with Byron Leftwich. I don’t think that changes my order of finish in the division, but where Leftwich lands might. I better get this out before I have to re-write the whole thing.
3. Tennessee Titans – It’s a crying shame they didn’t do much to help Vince Young in the off-season. Looks like VY will have to carry them again.
4. Houston Texans – Houston is an offensive lineman or two away from climbing out of the cellar. So far, it looks like the Texans got the better of the Matt Schaub trade.

West
1. San Diego Chargers* – Widely regarded as the most talented on the field, the Chargers are breaking in a new coach and new coordinators. Will the new regime be able to do what the old one couldn’t? They’d better, or they won’t be able to justify canning 14-2 Marty Schottenheimer.
2. Denver Broncos* – A perennial playoff contender, the Broncos added RB Travis Henry, who is good when healthy, but that’s been the problem. Their defense is good enough to get them to the playoffs.
3. Kansas City Chiefs – Sorry, LJ, but history hasn’t been kind to 400+ carry running backs the year after. Plus, the Chiefs have unresolved issues at QB.
4. Oakland Raiders – Commitment to Rebuilding.

National Football Conference

East
1. Philadelphia Eagles* – QB Donovan McNabb is back, and with the emergence of RB Brian Westbrook as an every down back (told you), the offense is finally well-balanced. The defense should be better despite waiving vocal leader Jeremiah Trotter. The Birds still rule the roost in the NFC East.
2. New York Giants – It’s been an interesting off-season for the Giants. Tiki Barber retired, Mike Strahan may do the same, and Eli Manning hasn’t fulfilled his promise yet. Tom Coughlin looks like a lame duck.
3. Washington Redskins – They may finally have their QB in Jason Campbell, and they’re deep at running back with Clinton Portis and Ladell Betts. But their defense stinks, and even Tom Coughlin thinks Joe Gibbs is a lame duck.
4. Dallas Cowboys – They suck.

North
1. Chicago Bears* – If only their QB could hold on to the football.
2. Minnesota Vikings – The Vikes are my sleeper team, as first noted last December. They’re heaping a lot on QB Tavaris Jackson, who coach Brad Childress says reminds him of a young Donovan McNabb. That’s some high praise.
3. Detroit Lions – Lions QB Jon Kitna says they have the talent to win 10 games this season. I say, maybe they do, but no they won’t.
4. Green Bay Packers – Seriously, Brett. Feel free to ride off into that sunset any year now.

South
1. New Orleans Saints* – Like most, I was surprised by the Saints a year ago. Like many, I don’t think they were a flash in the pan. The Saints probably run the best offense in the NFL, and the rest of their division is down.
2. Carolina Panthers – The Panthers are easily the most enigmatic team in the NFL. They could be great, or they could tank. It will kind of depend on the play of QB Jake Del-overrated (or they guy who should be starting, David Carr).
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Is Jon Gruden on the hot seat in Tampa? If he is, I don’t know that a four-quarterback rotation is going to do anything to save him. Will the real Cadillac Williams please stand up?
4. Atlanta Falcons – They’ll be better off without a con-Vick-ted felon at quarterback. And they weren’t even that good last year.

West
1. St. Louis Rams* – In what may be the most balanced division in football, the Rams seemingly have it all on offense. And just enough on defense.
2. Seattle Seahawks* – This has been Seattle’s division to lose for the last three or four years. This year, I think they finally will.
3. San Francisco 49ers* – San Francisco is certainly on the way up – good young QB, stud RB, free agents galore on defense. But they’re about a year away from being a factor, especially in this division.
4. Arizona Cardinals – The Cardinals are everyone’s darling, the majority expecting them to make the playoffs. While I think they’ll be better, I’m not sure they’ll be in the running for the ultimate home game.

AFC Championship: New England over Indianapolis – Like a year ago, the Patriots and Colts are probably the two best teams in the AFC. Unlike a year ago (but as they’ve done so often in the past), the Pats will advance.

NFC Championship: Philadelphia over New Orleans – Another playoff rematch from 2007 with a different result. McNabb said it was time for the Eagles to "seal the deal." Winning the NFC is a step towards that deal.

Super Bowl XLII: Philadelphia over New England – At the risk of going Chris Berman (whose career evidently jumped the shark about three years ago), New England and Philly meet for the championship. The Eagles will exact some overdue revenge for Super Bowl XXXIV, and the city will claim its first title since 1983. That is, unless the Fightin’ Phils sneak into the playoffs and shock the world. More on this in a minute…

NFL MVP: Donovan McNabb, Philadelphia – McNabb was on an MVP-pace before shredding his knee last season. As he goes, so go the Birds, and that is the textbook definition of an MVP.

Coach of the Year: Bill Belichick, New England – As mentioned before, holding this team of talented players together will be harder than it seems, especially when one of those players hasn’t gotten along with anyone, anywhere in his career.

Rookie of the Year: Adrian Peterson, Minnesota – This kid is the real deal. I thought he should have won the Heisman Trophy his freshman year at Oklahoma. Injuries pushed him out of the spotlight a little bit, but he’s probably the most NFL-ready back to enter the league in recent memory.

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Coming soon - "Ant’s Expert NFL Picks." The picks are basically the meat and potatoes of this site. This will be year six of this little experiment that proves I am as qualified as an "Expert" as any of the talking heads you see on TV, or any of the writers you read. My lifetime record currently stands at 814-465-1 (.636) straight up and 649-613-18 (.514) against the spread.

And, as always, we will follow two general principles when making the picks:

1. I will ALWAYS pick the Eagles to win and cover, regardless of opponent or location.
2. I will NEVER pick Dallas to win or cover, regardless of opponent or location.

All other games will be picked objectively, without the same gimmicks you get from other sites. For instance, I don’t pick an "Upset of the Week." As I’ve said before, I won’t be forced to pick an upset just to meet some criteria. By the same token, I won’t name a "Lock of the Week." I think all of my picks are locks. Otherwise, I wouldn’t pick them. The same general disclaimer still applies – the picks are for entertainment purposes only. If you choose to bet money, your car, your house, or your kid, I won’t be held responsible for your losses. I will, however, accept kickbacks if you prosper.

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A quick baseball take before I go. The Phillies have used 18 pitchers this year and have had 29 players at one point or another on the disabled list, yet after completing a four-game sweep of the Mets, they sit only two games out of the NL East lead. Centerfielder Aaron Rowand, a member of the world champion Chicago White Sox in 2005, was asked if he got the same kind of feeling from this club as he did in 2005. He said he did, and quite frankly I do, too. This team reminds me of the ’93 club that just refused to give up, on a game or a season, regardless of the situation. Manager Charlie Manuel, who has taken his fair share of criticism, deserves a lot of the credit for holding this team together, and they never stopped believing.

What an October it could be in Philadelphia.

Offseason News

With all do deference to Pearl Jam, yes I’m still alive. Just because I’ve been down and out doesn’t mean there hasn’t been anything happening around the NFL.

And while there are many items I’ll touch on (including a dog-fighting ring with Mike Vick playing the role of Don King, Roger Goodell’s own brand of NFL justice, and Ocho Cinco vs. Mr. Ed), I’d be remiss if I didn’t open with the Eagles, and Donovan McNabb’s surprising return to the huddle at this week’s mini camp.

McNabb surprised many by taking part in non-contact drills yesterday and running plays with the first team offense a mere seven months after having surgery to repair a torn ACL. McNabb had been tracking towards a return by the opening of training camp on July 27th, but got a clean bill of health from the Eagles team doctors and participated in most of the practice. By all accounts, he looked as sharp as ever:

"He's where we'd hoped he would be. He's worked very hard to get to this spot . . . I thought he did a nice job. He looked strong." – Eagles head coach Andy Reid

"He was good; everything went smoothly, from my point of view…brought a little bit of normalcy back to practice. You're used to having Don back there every play, and just having him back kind of sets you on your way [preparing for the season] . . . He seems like the same Don to me" – Eagles wide receiver Reggie Brown

"I thought he looked great, he looked awesome. He definitely had some kick in his step. The ball was coming out pretty good." – Eagles quarterback Kevin Kolb

"Just having him out there is a great feeling. Our leader, that's our captain - he's back." – Eagles wide receiver Hank Baskett

You can’t overemphasize the impact McNabb’s presence has on the offense specifically and on the football team as a whole. The players said as much - he’s the man, he’s the leader, it’s his team. With any luck, McNabb will stay healthy, have a successful training camp, and regain his pro bowl form while leading the Eagles to the playoffs and beyond.

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In other news…

Falcons quarterback Michael Vick has been under scrutiny for his alleged involvement in a dog-fighting ring that was being run out of a house that was his property but not his residence in Virginia. Vick, of course, has denied all knowledge and involvement, despite the fact that anonymous sources place Ron Mexico at fights as early as 2001, when he was still an employee of Virginia Tech (I say "an employee" because he is rumored to have been throwing down twenty large at a dog fight, which is pretty good scratch for a college sophomore). Anyway, now that the Feds are involved, Mexico could be indicted, arrested, or incarcerated. He’s likely the next target in commissioner Roger Goodell’s crosshairs. A suspension of any length would usher in the Joey Harrington era in Atlanta. Yikes.

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Speaking of suspensions, Chicago Bears Man of the Year candidate Tank Johnson will miss the first eight games of the year, as Goodell suspended Johnson in the wake of his serving nearly two months in prison on weapons charges. In case you’re counting, Goodell’s body count now reads as follows:

Adam "Pac Man" Jones (TEN) – 16 games for being interviewed by police ten times, most recently for inciting a brawl at a Las Vegas strip club when he "made it rain" to the tune of $81K.

Chris Henry (CIN) – 8 games for being arrested four times in the last fourteen months. This is actually Henry’s second suspension, as he sat for two games last season.

Tank Johnson (CHI) – 8 games as described above.

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Patriots cornerback Asante Samuel, tagged as the team’s franchise player, has vowed to sit out until Week 10, as the Patriots have not signed him to a long-term deal. Samuel led the league in interceptions last season and established himself as a top-flight corner. Samuel was tendered a one-year $7.79 million deal, which he hasn’t signed. The Patriots have dealt with this type of stuff before and have proven to be unrelenting. Perhaps Samuel can ring up Deion Branch in Seattle to see what he has to say about this type of negotiating ploy.

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The Dolphins and Chiefs finally negotiated a trade sending Trent Green to Miami, meaning one-time NFL MVP candidate Daunte Culpepper is on his way out of South Beach. The Dolphins will attempt to trade or simply release Culpepper, leaving him free to sign anywhere. Some possible destinations being mentioned include Baltimore (which kind of makes sense) and Jacksonville (which makes less sense). Here are four teams not being mentioned where I think Culpepper could fit:

Minnesota – a quick peek at the Vikings depth chart makes this a no-brainer. I know Vikings brass likes Tavaris Jackson, but he’s young and unproven. Culpepper had a lot of success in the NFC North. Besides, I think I can beat out Brooks Bollinger and Tyler Thigpen for the back-up job in Minnesota.

Oakland – they just drafted JaMarcus Russell, who looks like Daunte Culpepper Jr., and the guy who will be keeping the seat warm for him (Andrew Walter) is on the shelf with a knee injury. Rather than risk Russell’s future by throwing him out there opening week, the Raiders could use Culpepper as that stopgap until Russell is ready.

Dallas – This is less about Culpepper and more about Tony Romo. After a hot start, teams got the book on him and he came back to Earth with a thud. Now that Drew Bledsoe has retired, Romo’s primary back up is 62-year old Brad Johnson. And, Culpepper has plenty of experience dealing with an egotistical, prima donna wide receiver who is all about himself.

One more thought on Culpepper. Why wouldn’t the Dolphins keep him as something of an insurance policy for Green? Green is 37 and coming off a disappointing year highlighted by a major concussion. How reliable is he? Are the Dolphins really better off with Cleo Lemon and John Beck lined up behind Green? That should tell you how far Culpepper has fallen.

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Bengals wide receiver Chad "Ocho Cinco" Johnson recently raced a horse named "Restore the Roar" for charity. Ocho Cinco won the raise, even talking trash to "The Roar" afterwards. Forget about the fact that the horse ran 200 meters while Ocho Cinco only ran 100. What if Johnson would have injured himself? Robert Edwards playing beach football at the Pro Bowl thinks this was a bad idea.

Nevertheless, Ocho said he wants to take on the best at other sports, for charity of course. He says he wants to spar with Floyd Mayweather, play one-on-one against Kobe Bryant or LeBron James, and race Jeff Gordon for a few laps. Somewhere a FOX television executive is salivating.

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And now, barring any major developments, I’ll be taking my annual summer hiatus, returning somewhere in August with the 2007-08 Season Preview. In the meantime, I’ll be busy with the family, my hobbies (golf and hockey), and my guilty pleasures (sudoku, XBox, and fantasy baseball). Talk to you during training camp.

2007 Draft Wrap Up

Allow me to preface this by saying I have questioned the Eagles’ collective thinking in terms of the draft before, and it’s largely been proven that Andy Reid is more often right than wrong. So take this with a grain of salt.

After the Eagles traded for Takeo Spikes and filled a glaring need at linebacker, the buzzword regarding their 2007 draft strategy was “depth.” The implication was that the Eagles, in pre-draft form, were capable of winning the division and maybe making a run at the NFC championship. Much of the speculation was that the Eagles needed to address a few positions, primarily in the secondary, along the D-Line, and maybe even at receiver, running back, and tight end.

So naturally, they traded out of the first round (with Dallas, no less) and in the second round they selected…

…University of Houston QB Kevin Kolb.

Now, other than the fact that they traded with the Cowboys, I don’t have a problem with the Eagles moving out of round one. They most likely did so because the players they were targeting at #26 - safeties Michael Griffin, Reggie Nelson, and Brandon Meriweather - were all off the board. I also don’t necessarily have a problem with them drafting a quarterback. I do, however, disagree with this quarterback. Especially in this spot. I mean, he’s Kevin Kolb.

Kevin Kolb?!?

Look, there’s not a bigger Eagles fan on the planet than me, so I hope Kolb turns out to be sensational. At the same time, I’m a huge Donovan McNabb fan. Has there ever been a superstar athlete who has to endure more strife and criticism than McNabb? He has been a target for the national and local media. He has had his leadership qualities questioned by his teammates (well, by one unnamed prima-donna wide receiver, anyway). He has been repeatedly booed by the fans. And through it all, he has maintained his poise, composure, and positive demeanor.

So here’s yet another controversy he has to deal with. My belief is that “5” will do what he always does – smile, laugh, and just play ball. The bottom line is, this guy is still an elite quarterback in this league. After all he’s been through, the Eagles owe him the opportunity to rehabilitate his injured knee and help return the team to prominence.

I may be one of the select few who believe he can do just that. It seems to me that drafting Kolb is the warning shot fired across McNabb’s bough. Hopefully it also isn’t the straw that breaks the camel’s back.

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So what happened to “depth?” Well, the Eagles took a defensive lineman in the second round (DE Victor Abiamiri out of Notre Dame), a running back in the third (Penn State’s Tony Hunt), a safety in the fifth (Clemson’s C.J. Gaddis), and a corner in the sixth (Rashad Barksdale from Albany). Can any of the aforementioned contribute this year? I’m not sure. My guess is Hunt can be that big back the Eagles have needed for quite some time. And if Gaddis can tackle at all, he could supplant Sean Considine, who was last seen hugging the air where Reggie Bush once stood in the playoffs.

But when you’re talking about getting contributions from guys taken in the fifth and sixth rounds, you’re really reaching. The rare exceptions aside (Tom Brady, sixth round draft pick), the players selected on the second day of the draft are more concerned with making the roster than they are with cracking the starting line up.

The early-round guys, however, should in theory compete for playing time right away. That’s why the timing of the Kolb pick is so curious. Never mind the fact that McNabb is an all-pro. Didn’t the Eagles just sign A.J. Feeley to a three-year deal? Didn’t they add veteran Kelly Holcomb in the Spikes deal? So with three veterans under contract (and Koy Detmer waiting in the wings in case David Akers needs a holder), where does Kolb fit in? Does he at all?

One thought that was floated during the draft (I believe it originated with ESPN’s Michael Smith, who I’m a big fan of by the way) was that maybe Kolb will be the Eagles version of Matt Schaub. Schaub never really challenged Ron Mexico for the starting job in Atlanta but was coveted enough on the open market that the Falcons unloaded him for a package of draft picks, including a couple of second rounders. The problem is, Kolb has two leap frog at least two guys on the depth chart to even get where Schaub was. I don’t see this situation playing out very well.

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I’ve never been a big fan of grading a team’s draft class the day after the draft. After all, none of the draftees have played a down in the NFL. In truth, you can’t truly assess a group of draft picks until they’ve been in the league for a couple of years. However, I can say that there were a few teams that I thought had strong drafts this year:

Minnesota Vikings – The Vikings added stud RB Adrian Peterson in the first round, WR Sidney Rice in the second, and CB Marcus McCauley in the third. Peterson was head and shoulders above every other running back in the draft and has offensive rookie of the year potential. McCauley looked like a first rounder after his junior year at Fresno and had a little of a down year as a senior, which is why he fell. Rice may be the gem of the class for Minnesota. The first time I watched him play as a freshman at South Carolina, I thought he was going to be special. And while the Vikings didn’t draft a quarterback, they did take one in the second round in 2006, and they heartily believe in Tavaris Jackson. Minnesota has the look of a 2007 sleeper. You heard it here first.

Carolina Panthers – On the heels of a disappointing 2006, the Panthers did well to grab LB John Beason in round one, WR Dwayne Jarrett and C Ryan Kalil from USC in round two. Kalil can and likely will start immediately. Beason will get a look at middle linebacker in place of Dan Morgan, who can’t seem to stay healthy. And Jarrett reminds some of a young Keyshawn Johnson. In fact, he already took Johnson’s spot. This is a team that really wasn’t that far away a year ago. They could absolutely contend in the NFC South behind new starting quarterback David Carr (again, remember where you heard that).

Oakland Raiders – Not only did they land a potential franchise QB in JaMarcus Russell first overall, but then they got an above-average tight end in Arizona State’s Zach Miller and might have gotten the steal of the draft with RB Michael Bush from Louisville. Bush broke his leg in the Cardinals’ season-opener a year ago, but before his injury he was getting some Heisman run. He’s a big, strong kid who, when healthy, can be a productive if not dominant back in this league. Oakland may not be good right away, but they have certainly put the pieces in place for a Raider resurgence in the near future. That future will not include Randy Moss, as he was dealt to the Patriots on draft Sunday. More on Moss in a minute.

Cleveland Browns – After locking up a bookend left tackle Joe Thomas, the Browns traded back into the first round to take hometown boy Brady Quinn. They also took a flier on Eric Wright, a CB out of UNLV who began his college career at Southern Cal but ran afoul of the law. His character is a question mark, especially in Roger Goddell’s suspend first, ask questions later NFL. Wright, like Marcus McCauley, is a guy that has first-round talent and could prove to be a steal in the third round.

There were also some teams (besides the Eagles) whose drafts were sub-par. The Texans didn’t do anything to address their biggest area of need, the offensive line. Tennessee reached for a RB, Chris Henry from Arizona, who had 900 or so rushing yards in his entire college career. And the Giants could have done something about their O-line, but didn’t.

Of course, time will tell if these drafts look as good (or bad) on the field as they do on paper.

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Here’s something that flew under the radar a little bit. During an interview with ESPN guys on Sunday at the draft, Eagles coach Andy Reid made a comment to guest draft commentator Keyshawn Johnson about coming to “play and score some touchdowns for him.” Johnson immediately responded playfully, “That’s tampering!” Reid quickly backed off, but now that Johnson is a free agent, you’ve got to wonder if Reid may take a look at him. Maybe Big Red knew something the rest of us didn’t.

I’m not sure I’d like that move from the Eagles perspective. I’m fine with the receiving corps as it is. I like Reggie Brown and Kevin Curtis, and I really think Hank Baskett will make major contributions this year. I’m not sure where Johnson would fit in. He’s also been a problem child in Tampa and Dallas. This isn’t like when the Eagles got TOFU and that vaulted them from NFC playoff team to Super Bowl contender. Johnson is on the downside of his career, and he’s probably not worth the headache he would likely be.

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The biggest NFL story that occurred during the draft really had nothing to do with the draft itself. The New England Patriots shipped a fourth round pick to Oakland in exchange for Randy Moss. The move opened a lot of eyes in Patriots nation...



Moss immediately restructured his contract (as did golden boy Tom Brady to make it all fit under the salary cap) and preached to be on his best behavior. If that actually happens, this trade can only be classified as highway robbery. Think about the Patriots now as opposed to last year. They have upgraded to Moss and Donte Stallworth at WR in place of Reche Caldwell and Jabar Gaffney. Defensive menace Adalius Thomas is in the mix at LB. And though Corey Dillon retired, that just means more touches for Laurence Maroney. This is a team that was in the AFC Championship game a year ago. Right now, you’ve got to say it’s the Patriots, then everybody else.

04/20 Quick Hits

A couple of quick hitters as I ponder who the Phillies will hire as their next manager…

My mock draft was picked up by a Washington Redskins fan site, which I’ve linked this site to. I also linked to a D.C. sports blog, which is pretty good reading. Washington, like Philly. is a great sports town. Gilbert Arenas may the most entertaining player in the NBA (not the best, mind you – I’m a Kobe guy). The Capitals have a dynamic duo of Alexander Ovechkin and Alexander Semin. The Nationals are opening a new park next year. But despite the fact that they have all four major sports, Washington, like Philly, lives and dies by its football team. And, they hate the Cowboys almost as much as we do.

Another thing going for D.C.? They’ve got a great radio station in DC 101. Anytime I’m cruising up or down I-95, I pick up DC 101 as early as possible and listen to it until it turns to static. Well, unless it’s mid-day and the Jim Rome show is on. I am a clone, after all.

This week’s admission from potential top-ten picks WR Calvin Johnson, DE Gaines Adams, and DT Amobi Okoye that they have used marijuana is getting a lot of run, like it’s a cause for concern. You mean college kids experiment with pot? I am both shocked and dismayed. What’s next, are you going to tell me that these guys have had beer to? Look, I’m guessing the question that was posed to these guys was more “have you ever smoked” as opposed to “are you a habitual smoker,” and their owning up to it now is certainly better than one of them failing a drug test. Something tells me Johnson, Adams, and Okoye will still go early on the 28th.

The irony of this story breaking around April 20th is not lost on me. I’m not sure why they call this the “Stoner’s Holiday.” If anybody is sitting at home all baked up today and want to clue me in, please do so (nfl_ant@hotmail.com).

In a quasi-related story, former Dolphins running back and current Toronto Argonaut Ricky Williams wants back in the NFL, and rumors are he may land in St. Louis to back up Steven Jackson. After being relegated to the CFL, I don’t think Ricky would have a problem being a back up in the NFL. Plus, you can never have enough good backs. Seems like a win-win to me.

Here’s a thought on Dom Imus that might surprise you – I don’t think he should have been fired. Look, I’m a Stern guy from way back (not so much anymore since he’s on satellite now). For years, I defended his right to say whatever the hell he wanted (as guaranteed in the first amendment to the Constitution). I don’t like religious watchdog groups telling you what you can and can’t hear. Much as Imus has the right so free speech, listeners have the right to change the channel, or turn the radio off altogether. Is Imus a bigot? Perhaps. Should the Rutgers women be offended? Absolutely. Does his firing have an affect on me? Depends on what the local sports radio station puts on in his place. I guess if advertisers were starting to pull out and cost CBS a bunch of money, that’s a whole different animal. But I’d sound very hypocritical if I say he should have been fired.

Happy trails, Corey Dillon.