Yes, the NFL is still in the midst of its long, painful off-season, but that doesn’t mean things haven’t been happening. In fact, as sabbaticals go, this one has witnessed some major happenings in the league, including:
a) A new collective bargaining agreement – Other sports have set themselves back with player strikes and/or owner’s lockouts during labor strife. The NFL launched a pre-emptive effort to avoid such a catastrophe (and fall Sundays with no football would constitute a catastrophe).
b) The resignation of Paul Tagliabue – With the labor situation settled, the commissioner opted to walk away, leaving the game in good shape for the foreseeable future.
c) Player movement – Some big names have relocated, some via trade and some seeking greener pastures via free agency. Daunte Culpepper was dealt to the Dolphins (when he’ll play is still in question as he continues to rehabilitate his shredded knee), Drew Brees signed with the Saints, ending the illustrious Aaron Brooks era in New Orleans. Brooks will attempt replace Kerry Collins as the Raiders starter. The Redskins and Browns have been very active in free agency, with the ‘Skins inking receivers Antwaan Randle El (PIT) and Brandon Lloyd (SF), safety Adam Archuletta (STL), tight end Christian Fauria (NE) and linebacker Andre Carter (SF). Cleveland has added center LeCharles Bentley (NO), receiver Joe Jurevicius (SEA), and linebacker Willie McGinest (NE). The Colts let enigmatic kicker Mike Vanderjagt sign with the Cowboys, and upgraded by bringing in Adam Vinatieri, whom the Patriots chose not to re-sign (for reasons unbeknownst to anyone, really).
d) T.O. signs with the Cowboys – In theory, I could have lumped this in with the previous category, but it really deserves special consideration. Could there be a more perfect union than this? Now when God looks down on the toilet that is Texas Stadium, he’ll see a giant piece of crap in the middle of it. With any luck, T.O. will do what T.O. does and the Cowboys will suffer merely from his presence. With even more luck, he’ll go across the middle against the Eagles and Brian Dawkins will just absolutely crush him.
e) New coaches – This wasn’t the normal off-season in terms of coaching changes. Usually, teams will recycle the same old crummy coaches that have been dismissed by another team. Sure, a couple of guys have previous head coaching experience. Herman Edwards left the Jets for Kansas City, and the Raiders re-hired Art Shell (where has he been?). But this year, there are a handful of first-time NFL coaches, including Brad Childress (Vikings), Gary Kubiak (Texans), Rod Marinelli (Lions), Mike McCarthy (Packers), and Sean Payton (Saints).
f) No more touchdown celebrations – I, for one, have yet to make up my mind on this one. I love the guys who score a touchdown, act like they’ve been there before and just hand the ball to the referee (a la Barry Sanders). But the guys who choreograph their celebrations, use props, jump in the crowd and things like that are entertaining, too. They say that these types of actions show up the other team, and maybe they do. But if you’re a corner who just got burned by Chad Johnson or Steve Smith, you shouldn’t be offended by them dancing and carrying on. You should be pissed at yourself for letting them score. Next time, keep your man out of the end zone so they have nothing to celebrate. Just my opinion.
g) The scouting combine – Basically, the combine is five days loaded with tests of speed, strength, and intelligence that can either help or hurt your stock in terms of the draft. The most notable development from the combine had to be Texas quarterback Vince Young scoring a 6 (out of 50) on the Wonderlick test. He actually claims to have scored a 16, which sounds more like it (since he could probably score a 6 by simply spelling ‘Vince Young’ correctly). Personally, I think the Wonderlick scores are irrelevant. Why? Take for example two quarterbacks whose names you know with distinctly different NFL careers. One scored a 29, the other a 16. The guy with the 16? Dan Marino. The 29? Ryan Leaf. I rest my case.
All of the aforementioned off-season activity is merely an appetizer, leading to the main course and one of my favorite occurrences of the spring – the NFL draft. I am one of the junkies who will actually sit and watch the draft. I love the draft for many reasons, but maybe the most of which is watching Mel Kiper Jr. scramble to re-write his big board of top prospects as they all get picked out of order. Every time I watch Mel Kiper, two thoughts invariably creep into my mind: a) other than your local meteorologist, is anyone wrong more often than Mel Kiper?, and b) how in the world did he get his job, and why can’t I get a gig like that?
Inspired by Kiper, I have decided to publish my first ever Mock Draft this year, simply because, much like I like to see how I stack up to the other “experts” when it comes to picking games, I’d love to see how I do versus ESPN’s draft guru. Without further ado, I present to you Ant’s First Ever Mock Draft.
1. Houston Texans: Reggie Bush, RB (USC) – The Texans opting to pay David Carr an $8 million roster bonus was a pretty good indication that they’re going to take Bush, who appears to be a can’t-miss prospect. He’s quick, explosive, and versatile, maybe more dangerous as a receiver out of the backfield than he is as a runner. Houston could trade the pick and shore up the offensive line, but they’ll have to be overwhelmed with a trade offer to move down, and I don’t see that happening.
2. New Orleans Saints: Mario Williams, DE (NC State) – Even though he’s probably not a long-term solution, the Brees signing means one of two things for the Saints. They’ll either trade down, or take Williams, who has been compared favorably to Carolina’s Julius Peppers.
3. Tennessee Titans: Matt Leinart, QB (USC) – Quarterback is an obvious choice for Tennessee, and with all three top quarterbacks still available, the Titans will most likely take Leinart. Not only does he project well at the next level, but he could be reunited with Norm Chow, Tennessee’s offensive coordinator who coached him at USC.
4. New York Jets: D’Brickashaw Ferguson, OT (Virginia) – The Jets have many options, including trading up or staying put and selecting a quarterback. My guess is that they’ll take Ferguson to anchor the left side of the line and protect Chad Pennington’s blind side.
5. Green Bay Packers: A.J. Hawk, LB (Ohio State) – This should be something of a no-brainer, however the Packers have had holes on the defense for years that have not been addressed in the draft. Hawk, however, is too good to pass up. He’s got the speed to go sideline to sideline and the toughness to stuff the run.
6. San Francisco 49ers: Haloti Ngata, DT (Oregon) – 49ers head coach Mike Nolan was a defensive coach with the Ravens, so he witnessed first-hand how a good defense can carry you to a championship. I look at Nolan to re-build San Francisco’s defense from the line back, and Oregon’s Ngata is a beast in the middle.
7. Oakland Raiders: Vince Young, QB (Texas) – Young may not be NFL-ready yet, but he’s got tremendous upside. Think Ron Mexico, only bigger, quicker, and with a stronger arm. But don’t expect Young to come in and start right away. He’ll have some mechanics in his throwing motion to work out, but once he does that, look out. Just as a joke, he should wear # 6.
8.Buffalo Bills: Michael Huff, S (Texas) – The Bills will be thrilled to find Huff still on the board at #8, even if Ngata is the guy they really want. Huff is one the high-risers in the draft because of his versatility. He’s big, fast, and a great tackler, which means he’ll be a cornerback-safety hybrid along the lines of Dallas’ Roy Williams.
9. Detroit Lions: Jimmy Williams, CB (Virginia Tech) – Even Matt Millen wouldn’t be stupid enough to take an offensive player this year, would he? Plain and simple. The Lions need defense, specifically in the secondary. Huff may be the most versatile player, but Williams is clearly the best cover corner, and he can return kicks and punts, making him a great pick for Detroit.
10. Arizona Cardinals: Jay Cutler, QB (Vanderbilt) – Arizona could go any number of ways here. They could look at a tight end like Maryland’s Vernon Davis or help along the offensive line in USC’s Winston Justice. But Dennis Green likes quarterbacks, and he’ll love Jay Cutler. The Vanderbilt prospect has a strong, accurate arm and will be groomed as Kurt Warner’s successor.
11. St. Louis Rams: Vernon Davis, TE (Maryland) – Thanks to guys like Tony Gonzalez and Antonio Gates, the tight end position matters again, and Davis is the best tight end in the draft. The Rams have always thought offense first, and tight end is the biggest offensive need for St. Louis. If Davis is still available, the Rams will scoop him up.
12. Cleveland Browns: Tamba Hali, DE (Penn State) – If you’ve read this post regularly, you know that I’ve already tabbed the Browns as my sleeper team for next year. I see the Browns addressing a need either at linebacker or on the D-line. Hopefully for them, Hali will work out better than the last first brown defensive lineman they drafted from Penn State (Courtney Brown, 2000).
13. Baltimore Ravens: Broderick Bunkley, DT (Florida State) – Bunkley is another of the fast risers, and while not as big as Ngata, he might be a better fit for a team like Baltimore. In fact, some people have him rated higher. The Ravens would love to add a talent like Bunkley to an already stout defense.
14. Philadelphia Eagles: Chad Jackson, WR (Florida) – The good news? T.O. is gone. The bad news? The Eagles have done nothing to address the tremendous void they now have at wide receiver. Unless a Javon Walker trade is in the offing, look for the Eagles to go with Jackson, the best wide receiver in the draft. Though only 6’1”, he’s got a great vertical leap and blazing speed, and will pair with Reggie Brown as the Eagles’ receiving tandem for the next 7-8 years.
15. Denver Broncos: Santonio Holmes, WR (Ohio State) – Denver has two first round picks, so a trade up is a distinct possibility. Or, since they lost out on the T.O. sweepstakes, the Broncos could stand pat and draft a receiver. I can’t predict trades, so I have to assume that they’ll stay put and that Jackson will be gone. All that being said, they will take Holmes.
16. Miami Dolphins: Winston Justice, OT (USC) – Justice figures to be the second bookend tackle to be taken in this draft, and it wouldn’t surprise me if someone moved up to get him. Again, I don’t have the crystal ball in terms of trades, so we’ll leave Justice here as Daunte Culpepper’s new best friend.
17. Minnesota Vikings: DeAngelo Williams, RB (Memphis) – Take a look at the Vikings’ depth chart at running back and you’ll see Mewelde Moore, Chester Taylor, and Ciatrick Fason. Yikes. Minnesota should definitely be thinking running back, and Williams rates as #2 behind Bush. The question remains, will they need to make a move up to get him? Either way, Williams is their man.
18. Dallas Cowboys: Ernie Sims, LB (Florida State) – Prior to the T.O. signing, Dallas had to be thinking wide receiver. With that position all settled (for now), Bill Parcells can continue to re-build his 3-4 defense. Dallas cut La’roi Glover, so a defensive tackle is a possibility, as is a safety to pair with Roy Williams. But I think they’ll go linebacker with Sims, whose idol is former Seminole great Derrick Brooks.
19. San Diego Chargers: Tye Hill, CB (Clemson) – The Philip Rivers era begins this year for the Chargers, and he’ll be OK with LaDanian Tomlinson behind him and Antonio Gates at the end of the line. But there are holes at receiver, on the O-line, and in the secondary. With Jackson, Holmes, and Justice off the board, I feel the Chargers will look at a cornerback. Ergo, Tye Hill.
20. Kansas City Chiefs: Donte Whitner, S (Ohio State) – Whitner is on a lot of teams’ wish list, so there is a chance that he won’t be available for the Chiefs. But if he’s there, they’ll grab him in about three seconds.
21. New England Patriots: Chad Greenway, LB (Iowa) – Assuming they don’t draft a kicker to replace Adam Vinatieri (and let’s face it, only Armando Cuko is that clutch, and he’s not NFL-eligible yet), the Patriots will look at the defensive side of the ball, maybe to find the next Willie McGinest. Greenway might not be McGinest, but he is the kind of versatile linebacker that Bill Belichick loves.
22. Denver Broncos: Laurence Maroney, RB (Minnesota) – With their second pick of the first round, would it surprise anyone if the Broncos took a running back? Denver loves running backs. Mike Shanahan loves running backs. Their line and their system churn out 1,000-yard backs like they’re coming off an assembly line. I was thinking about USC’s LenDale White here, but he’s tacked on a few pounds and has slipped. Besides, he’s being referred to as this year’s Maurice Clarett, a colossal bust drafted a year ago by…the Denver Broncos. They won’t make the same mistake twice.
23. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Sinorice Moss, WR (Miami) – The Bucs struck gold last year with Carnell “Cadillac” Williams, and they’re hoping to uncover another weapon on that offense. Like his brother Santana, Moss is a threat to score every time he touches the ball, and Tampa would love to have him as Chris Simms’ go-to guy.
24. Cincinnati Bengals: Marcedes Lewis, TE (UCLA) – You’ll have to forgive the Bengals, as they’re not used to drafting this late in the first round. Cincinnati is pretty set on offense except at tight end, and Lewis is a big target with great hands. Besides, all the Pac-10 guys go to Cincinnati – Carson Palmer (USC), Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh (Oregon State). Lewis will be the next left coaster in Marvin Lewis’ stable.
25. New York Giants: Bobby Carpenter, LB (Ohio State) – The surprise winner of the NFC East last season has needs across the defense, but specifically at linebacker. Carpenter was hurt at the end of the season, even missing the Fiesta Bowl. But he’s healthy now, had a great scouting combine, and would probably start from day one with big blue.
26. Chicago Bears: Leonard Pope, TE (Georgia) – On the strength of their defense, the Bears won the NFC North a year ago, and could have done more if they had some pass catchers on offense. Tight End is an obvious need, and after all the other dominos fall, Pope will march into Soldier Field.
27. Carolina Panthers: LenDale White, RB (USC) – Torn hamstring or not, White has fallen from a potential top-ten pick to a second-rounder in some people’s estimation. Not mine, however. White broke records at USC, a school famous for running backs (and alleged double-murderers). White will replace Stephen Davis as the big back in Carolina’s offense, and could carry the load if (or more appropriately when) DeShaun Foster gets hurt.
28. Jacksonville Jaguars: Antonio Cromartie, CB (Florida State) – The fact that Cromartie didn’t play a down last year but still projects as a first round draft pick is a testament to his talent and athletic ability. Jacksonville could use him in the secondary and as a return man on special teams.
29. New York Jets: Mathias Kiwanuka, DE (Boston College) – If the Jets keep this pick (they may need to package it to move up from the #4 spot), they have to find a replacement for John Abraham, who went to Atlanta. Kiwanuka is a pass rush specialist who could eventually fill the void left by Abraham’s departure.
30. Indianapolis Colts: Jonathan Joseph, CB (South Carolina) – The Colts could be hoping that LenDale White falls this far and snatch him to replace Edgerrin James. Or, they could make a move up to try and grab a back. If they stay put, its likely they will draft defense, at which time Joseph, while not of ideal size, would be the best talent available.
31. Seattle Seahawks: Kamerion Wimbley, DE (Florida State) – Seattle re-signed Shaun Alexander and has Matt Hasselbeck locked up for a couple more years, but lost all-pro Steve Hutchinson in free agency. But this late in the first round, the top tackles will be long gone, so defensive end is the way to go. Wimbley is a late bloomer, whose stock has risen dramatically of late.
32. Pittsburgh Steelers: Nick Mangold, C (Ohio State) – The Super Bowl champs finish out the first round with a prototypical Steeler. Mangold was a starter for three years at Ohio State and is big (6’3”, 300 lbs), tough and durable. He’ll be the second coming of Mike Webster in the ‘burgh.
So, there you have it. And no, I will not be publishing Mock Draft Version 2.0 or anything beyond that like some of these guys do. Instead, I’ll watch the draft as always, and probably write up a little something on the draft’s winners and losers (which is almost impossible to do, since it takes a couple of years before a draft class can really be evaluated). Then will come preparations for another important day – the Fantasy Football draft. I’m also planning further additions to the site, including a mailbag where you can fire questions, comments, and other snide remarks. In the interim, enjoy the off-season.
Friday, April 14, 2006
Off-season Tidbits & Ant's First Ever Mock Draft
Wednesday, January 25, 2006
How to Fix the Eagles
The Eagles are running a feature on their website (www.philadelphiaeagles.com) called "You Be The GM," whereby Eagles fans can e-mail what they would do to return the Birds to prominence. Since I honestly feel sometimes that I missed my true calling and should be running a sports franchise, I took the time to lay out my restructuring plan. Here is a transcript, and should the website respond or print my plan, I'll be sure to inform you...
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Despite missing the playoffs for the first time since 1999 (and contrary to the opinion of some media outlets), I don't think the window of opportunity for the Eagles to win a Super Bowl has passed. I personally think the Eagles can add a few players at key positions and re-emerge as the NFC's elite team. If I was calling the shots, here's what I would do:
1) Address the wide receiver position via free agency - While the biggest name currently available is Reggie Wayne, I'm not sold on him being a #1. Remember when Atlanta overpaid for Peerless Price? Same kind of situation. Assuming Buffalo cuts Eric Moulds, I'd bring him in. He doesn't possess the size or speed of a Terrell Owens, but he's a solid NFL receiver. Prior to Reggie Brown, the Eagles haven't had much luck drafting receivers, and this draft is not exactly stacked with talent at the position anyway.
2) Do not overpay for John Abraham or Julian Peterson - Both are good NFL players who would likely be upgrades at their respective positions. Both, however, would also come with pretty high price tags. If only one of the two is in the mix, it should probably be Peterson. The Eagles need the most help at outside linebacker, and Peterson would be a good coverage guy to stay with the good tight ends (Witten, Shockey, Cooley) in the NFC East.
3) Draft for Defense and Depth - The Eagles top two positions of need are on the defensive side of the ball - outside linebacker and defensive tackle. The best players at those positions (Ohio State's A.J. Hawk and Oregon's Haloti Ngata) will likely not be available to the Eagles at #14. The name thrown around in most of the mock drafts is OLB Chad Greenway out of Iowa. I like Greenway, but if they were to sign Peterson I'd be alright with them trading down and taking a tackle like Miami's Orien Harris late in the first round. Outside of the first round, depth should be addressed at the following positions:
a. Defensive End - Trent Cole and Jevon Kearse are good as starters, but what's behind them? Can you count on Jerome McDougle and/or N.D. Kalu?
b. Offensive Line - Jon Runyan will likely be gone, so they either need to draft a tackle or two or Shawn Andrews needs to move from guard to tackle and they draft a couple of guards.
c. Tight End - L.J. Smith is a good pass-catching tight end, but they could use more of a run-blocking guy.
d. Running Back - The Eagles need a big, bruising back for short yardage and goal line situations.
4) Bring in a competent back-up quarterback - As we all witnessed this past season, neither Mike McMahon nor Koy Detmer is capable of being a productive starter for an extended period of time. There has to be someone available that, should the worst case scenario occur again and the Eagles are forced to play without Donovan McNabb, can come in and manage the offense effectively.
These moves should not only address their most glaring issues, but would still leave them some salary cap flexibility for future needs or emergency situations that might arise. The bottom line is that the Eagles are still in decent shape to make a run at the Super Bowl.
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Despite missing the playoffs for the first time since 1999 (and contrary to the opinion of some media outlets), I don't think the window of opportunity for the Eagles to win a Super Bowl has passed. I personally think the Eagles can add a few players at key positions and re-emerge as the NFC's elite team. If I was calling the shots, here's what I would do:
1) Address the wide receiver position via free agency - While the biggest name currently available is Reggie Wayne, I'm not sold on him being a #1. Remember when Atlanta overpaid for Peerless Price? Same kind of situation. Assuming Buffalo cuts Eric Moulds, I'd bring him in. He doesn't possess the size or speed of a Terrell Owens, but he's a solid NFL receiver. Prior to Reggie Brown, the Eagles haven't had much luck drafting receivers, and this draft is not exactly stacked with talent at the position anyway.
2) Do not overpay for John Abraham or Julian Peterson - Both are good NFL players who would likely be upgrades at their respective positions. Both, however, would also come with pretty high price tags. If only one of the two is in the mix, it should probably be Peterson. The Eagles need the most help at outside linebacker, and Peterson would be a good coverage guy to stay with the good tight ends (Witten, Shockey, Cooley) in the NFC East.
3) Draft for Defense and Depth - The Eagles top two positions of need are on the defensive side of the ball - outside linebacker and defensive tackle. The best players at those positions (Ohio State's A.J. Hawk and Oregon's Haloti Ngata) will likely not be available to the Eagles at #14. The name thrown around in most of the mock drafts is OLB Chad Greenway out of Iowa. I like Greenway, but if they were to sign Peterson I'd be alright with them trading down and taking a tackle like Miami's Orien Harris late in the first round. Outside of the first round, depth should be addressed at the following positions:
a. Defensive End - Trent Cole and Jevon Kearse are good as starters, but what's behind them? Can you count on Jerome McDougle and/or N.D. Kalu?
b. Offensive Line - Jon Runyan will likely be gone, so they either need to draft a tackle or two or Shawn Andrews needs to move from guard to tackle and they draft a couple of guards.
c. Tight End - L.J. Smith is a good pass-catching tight end, but they could use more of a run-blocking guy.
d. Running Back - The Eagles need a big, bruising back for short yardage and goal line situations.
4) Bring in a competent back-up quarterback - As we all witnessed this past season, neither Mike McMahon nor Koy Detmer is capable of being a productive starter for an extended period of time. There has to be someone available that, should the worst case scenario occur again and the Eagles are forced to play without Donovan McNabb, can come in and manage the offense effectively.
These moves should not only address their most glaring issues, but would still leave them some salary cap flexibility for future needs or emergency situations that might arise. The bottom line is that the Eagles are still in decent shape to make a run at the Super Bowl.
Thursday, January 05, 2006
The Season Preview Review
“Let’s take a look back. They always say in life ‘don’t look back’. F--- that!” – Dave Chappelle
Yes, it’s the first annual “Season Preview Review,” and what an interesting season it was. There were surprises and major disappointments, of which we’ll speak of a little later. But in the interest of full disclosure, I want to let you know how I stacked up this year.
By my own estimation, I had an average year, posting records of 171-85 (.668) straight up and 134-111-11 (.547) against the spread. Both of those marks are up slightly from the 2004-05 campaign. As for the pre-season predictions, not so good. I only named four of the twelve playoff teams and completely whiffed on my rookies of the year (which Tampa’s Carnell Williams and San Diego’s Shawne Merriman absolutely deserved). A few award winners have yet to be named, so I offer you my thoughts…
Most Valuable Player: Tiki Barber, New York Giants – There are plenty of worthy candidates (Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Carson Palmer, Shaun Alexander), but Barber gets my vote. Three times he ran for over 200 yards (all Giants wins), led the NFL in yards from scrimmage, and gave the Giants offense the balance that carried them to an 11-5 record and an NFC East crown.
Offensive Player of the Year: Shaun Alexander, Seattle Seahawks – Let’s see, he won the rushing title that eluded him by a yard last season, and broke the single-season touchdown record, finding the end zone 28 times for the 13-3 Seahawks.
Defensive Player of the Year: Brian Urlacher, Chicago Bears – The numbers are impressive – 122 tackles, six sacks – but far from the best in the league. So why did I go with Urlacher? Because he’s the unquestioned leader of a defense that literally carried the Bears to the #2 seed, despite an offense that outscored only Detroit, New Orleans, and San Francisco in the NFC.
Coach of the Year: Tony Dungy, Indianapolis Colts – Do I really need to explain? The Colts went 14-2, and proved that they can win under any circumstances. That’s the trademark of a good coach. For the record, I think Bill Belichick deserves some mention here as well. The Patriots surprised nobody by winning the AFC East, but the Pats had to deal with the loss of their offensive and defensive coordinators and a rash of major injuries. They were able to hold it together, and now the Pats look like that team that no one wants to see in the post-season.
Speaking of coaches, it was a bad week for guys named Mike. Mike Martz? Fired by the St. Louis Rams. Mike Tice? Dismissed as Vikings head coach. Mike Sherman? Out as coach of the Packers (which could in turn lead to the retirement of Brett Favre, who said if Sherman was fired, he’d quit). No word on whether or not Buffalo’s Mike Mularkey or Denver’s Mike Shanahan have put their houses on the market. Other coaching vacancies reside in Oakland (Norv Turner), New Orleans (Jim Haslett), and Kansas City (Dick Vermeil).
Coaches weren’t the only disappointment this year, as some players and teams underachieved. Among them:
Terrell Owens – Undoubtedly the most physically talented wide receiver in the league, Owens ruined two things this year – the Eagles’ season, and his own reputation. Aligning himself with that slimy roach weasel Drew Rosenhaus was his first mistake. Undermining Donovan McNabb, Andy Reid, and the Eagles front office was his second. Owens was suspended twice by the Eagles, once in training camp and for the last six games of the season. Owens will be released during the off-season, but there’s not a team in the league that will pay Owens the type of big, guaranteed dollars he attempted to extort from the Eagles.
Philadelphia Eagles – I can’t blame this season’s failings solely on T.O. True, he was the primary factor, but some player personnel decisions have to be questioned. Guys like Corey Simon and Derrick Burgess were allowed to walk, both of whom would have helped this defense. When Donovan McNabb went down for the season, Reid was forced to choose between Mike McMahon and Koy Detmer, third-string quarterbacks both. He went with McMahon, and the rest is history. With almost $13 million in cap space, I’ve got to believe they could have done more.
Atlanta Falcons – Last year’s NFC runner-up finished 8-8 and out of the playoffs, and can’t blame their misfortunes on injuries. Maybe they overachieved last year, but they still didn’t do much to address their biggest problem – no receivers for Ron Mexico to throw to. Hell, the Eagles think Atlanta needs some held at receiver.
Minnesota Vikings – Picked by some (including yours truly) to win the NFC North and others (ESPN Magazine) to win the Super Bowl, the Vikes started slow, went on the notorious “Sex Cruise,” lost QB Daunte Culpepper to a major knee injury, then rallied themselves into contention only to collapse at the end of the year, all of which cost Mike Tice his job.
Baltimore Ravens – The knock on the Ravens was that they had no offense. So they picked up WR Derrick Mason in free agency. Jamal Lewis finished his stint in the cooler, and Kyle Boller was supposed to make “The Leap” this season. Needless to say, they fell flat on offense, and with Ray Lewis and Ed Reed missing significant time due to injury, the Ravens’ season went up in smoke.
San Diego Chargers – How can a team this loaded be on the outside looking in at the playoffs? Inconsistency, that’s how.
One more piece of business before we move onto my (revised) playoff predictions. Every season, I pick a sleeper team, not necessarily a team that will contend for the Super Bowl, but a team that will be better than expected, maybe sneak into the playoffs and scare a few people. Two years ago, I went with the Seattle Seahawks (they made the playoffs the next season, the infamous Matt Hasselbeck “we want the ball, and we’re going to score” loss to in Green Bay). Last season? The Jacksonville Jaguars (who fell just short of the post-season). This year, I jumped off the Bears bandwagon after Rex Grossman’s injury and went with the Buffalo Bills. My bad. Anyway, I’m already looking at two potential sleepers for the 2006-07 season.
Miami Dolphins – The Fish went 9-7 in Nick Saban’s first season, including a six-game winning streak to end the season. Ronnie Brown had a good rookie year (1,139 rushing + receiving yards, 5 total TD’s), Chris Chambers may be the most underrated receiver in the league, and their defense is still above average, led by guys like Jason Taylor, Zach Thomas, and Sam Madison. They may be a consistent quarterback away from challenging the Patriots in the AFC East.
Cleveland Browns – Speaking of young talent, the Browns might have found their quarterback of the future in Charlie Frye. Prior to his injury, Braylon Edwards showed flashes of brilliance. And, “Evil” Kellen-evil” Winslow could be a productive tight end. Romeo Crennel will no doubt address the defense, and former Patriots personnel guy Scott Pioli, who came with Crennel, is a great talent evaluator. On top of all that, the Browns should have a cream-puff schedule since they finished 6-10.
Finally, we’ve come to the 2005-06 playoffs, and with the Eagles out and Dallas out, I don’t have a vested interest one way or the other. So here’s how I think it shakes out:
AFC – New England over Jacksonville and Pittsburgh over Cincinnati in the wild card games, meaning the Steelers will head to Indianapolis and New England will play in Denver in the second round. Would it surprise anyone if the Colts and Patriots met for the AFC Title? Me neither. I’ll go ahead and take the Patriots. I know Indy got New England during the regular season, but that Patriots team was down, and until Tom Brady loses in the playoffs, how can you go against him? The Patriots will come out of the AFC.
NFC – Who the hell knows? The NFC is so unpredictable, you’d be better off flipping a coin. In fact, that’s exactly what I’m going to do. With “Heads” representing the home team and “Tails” the visitors, here’s how the NFC playoffs go. Wild cards – Carolina (tails) over New York Giants, Washington (tails) over Tampa Bay; Second Round – Seattle (heads) over Washington, Carolina (tails) over Chicago; NFC Championship – Seattle (heads) over Carolina. Seattle wins the NFC.
Super Bowl – Again, Tom Brady is undefeated in the playoffs. The Patriots (surprise, surprise) take Super Bowl XL. New England 27, Seattle 24.
Yes, it’s the first annual “Season Preview Review,” and what an interesting season it was. There were surprises and major disappointments, of which we’ll speak of a little later. But in the interest of full disclosure, I want to let you know how I stacked up this year.
By my own estimation, I had an average year, posting records of 171-85 (.668) straight up and 134-111-11 (.547) against the spread. Both of those marks are up slightly from the 2004-05 campaign. As for the pre-season predictions, not so good. I only named four of the twelve playoff teams and completely whiffed on my rookies of the year (which Tampa’s Carnell Williams and San Diego’s Shawne Merriman absolutely deserved). A few award winners have yet to be named, so I offer you my thoughts…
Most Valuable Player: Tiki Barber, New York Giants – There are plenty of worthy candidates (Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Carson Palmer, Shaun Alexander), but Barber gets my vote. Three times he ran for over 200 yards (all Giants wins), led the NFL in yards from scrimmage, and gave the Giants offense the balance that carried them to an 11-5 record and an NFC East crown.
Offensive Player of the Year: Shaun Alexander, Seattle Seahawks – Let’s see, he won the rushing title that eluded him by a yard last season, and broke the single-season touchdown record, finding the end zone 28 times for the 13-3 Seahawks.
Defensive Player of the Year: Brian Urlacher, Chicago Bears – The numbers are impressive – 122 tackles, six sacks – but far from the best in the league. So why did I go with Urlacher? Because he’s the unquestioned leader of a defense that literally carried the Bears to the #2 seed, despite an offense that outscored only Detroit, New Orleans, and San Francisco in the NFC.
Coach of the Year: Tony Dungy, Indianapolis Colts – Do I really need to explain? The Colts went 14-2, and proved that they can win under any circumstances. That’s the trademark of a good coach. For the record, I think Bill Belichick deserves some mention here as well. The Patriots surprised nobody by winning the AFC East, but the Pats had to deal with the loss of their offensive and defensive coordinators and a rash of major injuries. They were able to hold it together, and now the Pats look like that team that no one wants to see in the post-season.
Speaking of coaches, it was a bad week for guys named Mike. Mike Martz? Fired by the St. Louis Rams. Mike Tice? Dismissed as Vikings head coach. Mike Sherman? Out as coach of the Packers (which could in turn lead to the retirement of Brett Favre, who said if Sherman was fired, he’d quit). No word on whether or not Buffalo’s Mike Mularkey or Denver’s Mike Shanahan have put their houses on the market. Other coaching vacancies reside in Oakland (Norv Turner), New Orleans (Jim Haslett), and Kansas City (Dick Vermeil).
Coaches weren’t the only disappointment this year, as some players and teams underachieved. Among them:
Terrell Owens – Undoubtedly the most physically talented wide receiver in the league, Owens ruined two things this year – the Eagles’ season, and his own reputation. Aligning himself with that slimy roach weasel Drew Rosenhaus was his first mistake. Undermining Donovan McNabb, Andy Reid, and the Eagles front office was his second. Owens was suspended twice by the Eagles, once in training camp and for the last six games of the season. Owens will be released during the off-season, but there’s not a team in the league that will pay Owens the type of big, guaranteed dollars he attempted to extort from the Eagles.
Philadelphia Eagles – I can’t blame this season’s failings solely on T.O. True, he was the primary factor, but some player personnel decisions have to be questioned. Guys like Corey Simon and Derrick Burgess were allowed to walk, both of whom would have helped this defense. When Donovan McNabb went down for the season, Reid was forced to choose between Mike McMahon and Koy Detmer, third-string quarterbacks both. He went with McMahon, and the rest is history. With almost $13 million in cap space, I’ve got to believe they could have done more.
Atlanta Falcons – Last year’s NFC runner-up finished 8-8 and out of the playoffs, and can’t blame their misfortunes on injuries. Maybe they overachieved last year, but they still didn’t do much to address their biggest problem – no receivers for Ron Mexico to throw to. Hell, the Eagles think Atlanta needs some held at receiver.
Minnesota Vikings – Picked by some (including yours truly) to win the NFC North and others (ESPN Magazine) to win the Super Bowl, the Vikes started slow, went on the notorious “Sex Cruise,” lost QB Daunte Culpepper to a major knee injury, then rallied themselves into contention only to collapse at the end of the year, all of which cost Mike Tice his job.
Baltimore Ravens – The knock on the Ravens was that they had no offense. So they picked up WR Derrick Mason in free agency. Jamal Lewis finished his stint in the cooler, and Kyle Boller was supposed to make “The Leap” this season. Needless to say, they fell flat on offense, and with Ray Lewis and Ed Reed missing significant time due to injury, the Ravens’ season went up in smoke.
San Diego Chargers – How can a team this loaded be on the outside looking in at the playoffs? Inconsistency, that’s how.
One more piece of business before we move onto my (revised) playoff predictions. Every season, I pick a sleeper team, not necessarily a team that will contend for the Super Bowl, but a team that will be better than expected, maybe sneak into the playoffs and scare a few people. Two years ago, I went with the Seattle Seahawks (they made the playoffs the next season, the infamous Matt Hasselbeck “we want the ball, and we’re going to score” loss to in Green Bay). Last season? The Jacksonville Jaguars (who fell just short of the post-season). This year, I jumped off the Bears bandwagon after Rex Grossman’s injury and went with the Buffalo Bills. My bad. Anyway, I’m already looking at two potential sleepers for the 2006-07 season.
Miami Dolphins – The Fish went 9-7 in Nick Saban’s first season, including a six-game winning streak to end the season. Ronnie Brown had a good rookie year (1,139 rushing + receiving yards, 5 total TD’s), Chris Chambers may be the most underrated receiver in the league, and their defense is still above average, led by guys like Jason Taylor, Zach Thomas, and Sam Madison. They may be a consistent quarterback away from challenging the Patriots in the AFC East.
Cleveland Browns – Speaking of young talent, the Browns might have found their quarterback of the future in Charlie Frye. Prior to his injury, Braylon Edwards showed flashes of brilliance. And, “Evil” Kellen-evil” Winslow could be a productive tight end. Romeo Crennel will no doubt address the defense, and former Patriots personnel guy Scott Pioli, who came with Crennel, is a great talent evaluator. On top of all that, the Browns should have a cream-puff schedule since they finished 6-10.
Finally, we’ve come to the 2005-06 playoffs, and with the Eagles out and Dallas out, I don’t have a vested interest one way or the other. So here’s how I think it shakes out:
AFC – New England over Jacksonville and Pittsburgh over Cincinnati in the wild card games, meaning the Steelers will head to Indianapolis and New England will play in Denver in the second round. Would it surprise anyone if the Colts and Patriots met for the AFC Title? Me neither. I’ll go ahead and take the Patriots. I know Indy got New England during the regular season, but that Patriots team was down, and until Tom Brady loses in the playoffs, how can you go against him? The Patriots will come out of the AFC.
NFC – Who the hell knows? The NFC is so unpredictable, you’d be better off flipping a coin. In fact, that’s exactly what I’m going to do. With “Heads” representing the home team and “Tails” the visitors, here’s how the NFC playoffs go. Wild cards – Carolina (tails) over New York Giants, Washington (tails) over Tampa Bay; Second Round – Seattle (heads) over Washington, Carolina (tails) over Chicago; NFC Championship – Seattle (heads) over Carolina. Seattle wins the NFC.
Super Bowl – Again, Tom Brady is undefeated in the playoffs. The Patriots (surprise, surprise) take Super Bowl XL. New England 27, Seattle 24.
Friday, December 30, 2005
The Week 17 Picks
And so we’ve reached the end of the regular season, and this weekend’s games are peppered with playoff implications, resting starters, and of course, the Reggie Bush Bowl between Houston and San Francisco (which could actually play out more like a lottery, as up to five teams could be tied for the worst record in the league). This is always one of the toughest weeks to pick, just for the record. Also, look for the first annual “Season Preview Review”coming next week. Read on, and Happy New Year to you!
The Match-up: Denver (+10.5) @ San Diego
The Skinny: The Broncos are locked into the #2 spot in the AFC, thus many of their regulars will be on the sidelines in baseball caps. San Diego, loaded as they are, should be playing for more than pride against a division rival.
Straight up: San Diego
Against the Spread: San Diego
The Match-up: New York Giants (-9.0) @ Oakland
The Skinny: Typically, I steer clear of Eli Manning on the road. However, this is a must-win for the Giants to lock up the NFC East, and Oakland shouldn’t be much of a spoiler.
Straight up: New York Giants
Against the Spread: New York Giants
The Match-up: Cincinnati (+7.5) @ Kansas City
The Skinny: Not much intrigue here other than Larry Johnson looking for his 9th straight 100-yard game. I know the Chiefs are technically still alive for the playoffs, but that’s only if Pittsburgh loses to Detroit (and that’s not going to happen).
Straight up: Kansas City
Against the Spread: Kansas City
The Match-up: Miami (+5.5) @ New England
The Skinny: The Pats still have an outside chance at the #3 seed, which would mean a home game in Foxboro and avoiding the Colts in the second round.
Straight up: New England
Against the Spread: New England
The Match-up: Buffalo (-1.5) @ New York Jets
The Skinny: The Jets are one of the teams with an outside chance at the #1 pick. I had an inclination to take them this week, but then I’ve remembered past hunches about this team and getting burned. So, I’m reluctantly taking the Bills.
Straight up: Buffalo
Against the Spread: Buffalo
The Match-up: Carolina (-4.0) @ Atlanta
The Skinny: The Panthers need a win to clinch a playoff berth, so they’ll pull out all the stops. One problem – they have lost seven straight in Atlanta and are 1-9 all time in the Georgia Dome. Atlanta may not spoil the Panthers’ season, but they’ll give them a game.
Straight up: Carolina
Against the Spread: Atlanta
The Match-up: Detroit (+13.5) @ Pittsburgh
The Skinny: See “Cincinnati (+7.5) @ Kansas City”
Straight up: Pittsburgh
Against the Spread: Pittsburgh
The Match-up: Baltimore (-3.0) @ Cleveland
The Skinny: The Browns look to bounce back from last week’s 41-0 embarrassment at the hands of the Steelers. Baltimore, meanwhile, has players and coaches fighting for jobs next season.
Straight up: Baltimore
Against the Spread: Baltimore
The Match-up: New Orleans (+13.5) @ Tampa Bay
The Skinny: The Bucs control their own destiny in terms of winning the NFC South.
Straight up: Tampa Bay
Against the Spread: Tampa Bay
The Match-up: Seattle (+4.5) @ Green Bay
The Skinny: Shaun Alexander has a chance to break the single-season touchdown record, so he’ll start. Chances are he’ll score early to clinch the record, then join the other Seattle starters on the bench.
Straight up: Green Bay
Against the Spread: Green Bay
The Match-up: Arizona (+6.5) @ Indianapolis
The Skinny: Welcome back, Coach Dungy.
Straight up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Indianapolis
The Match-up: Houston (-1.0) @ San Francisco
The Skinny: If the Texans end up with the #1 pick, guys like Domanick Davis and Johnathan Wells could end up on the trading block (Note to Texans front office – grab some offensive linemen).
Straight up: San Francisco
Against the Spread: San Francisco
The Match-up: Tennessee (+3.5) @ Jacksonville
The Skinny: Jacksonville is the #5 seed, win lose or draw, and they’re 3-1 behind David Garrard, with that one loss at the hands of the mighty Colts. So why all the talk about Byron Leftwich suiting up this week?
Straight up: Jacksonville
Against the Spread: Jacksonville
The Match-up: Chicago (+4.0) @ Minnesota
The Skinny: Normally, I would advise that the Bears sit Rex Grossman. But he’s been out for so long, and developing chemistry with the offense wouldn’t be a bad thing. Plus, if the worst happens and Grossman gets hurt (again), Kyle Orton waits in the wings, and he did a solid job as a starter in Grossman’s absence.
Straight up: Chicago
Against the Spread: Chicago
The Match-up: Washington (-7.5) @ Philadelphia
The Skinny: For the Redskins, it’s simple – win and they’re in. The Eagles would love nothing more than to spoil Washington’s hopes.
Straight up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia
The Match-up: St. Louis (+12.5) @ Dallas
The Skinny: There actually will be a perfect record in the NFL this season…16 times the Dallas Cowboys took the field, and 16 times I’ve picked against them. No playoffs for the Cowgirls, and another retirement for Bill Parcells. Good riddance, Tuna.
Straight up: St. Louis
Against the Spread: St. Louis
The Match-up: Denver (+10.5) @ San Diego
The Skinny: The Broncos are locked into the #2 spot in the AFC, thus many of their regulars will be on the sidelines in baseball caps. San Diego, loaded as they are, should be playing for more than pride against a division rival.
Straight up: San Diego
Against the Spread: San Diego
The Match-up: New York Giants (-9.0) @ Oakland
The Skinny: Typically, I steer clear of Eli Manning on the road. However, this is a must-win for the Giants to lock up the NFC East, and Oakland shouldn’t be much of a spoiler.
Straight up: New York Giants
Against the Spread: New York Giants
The Match-up: Cincinnati (+7.5) @ Kansas City
The Skinny: Not much intrigue here other than Larry Johnson looking for his 9th straight 100-yard game. I know the Chiefs are technically still alive for the playoffs, but that’s only if Pittsburgh loses to Detroit (and that’s not going to happen).
Straight up: Kansas City
Against the Spread: Kansas City
The Match-up: Miami (+5.5) @ New England
The Skinny: The Pats still have an outside chance at the #3 seed, which would mean a home game in Foxboro and avoiding the Colts in the second round.
Straight up: New England
Against the Spread: New England
The Match-up: Buffalo (-1.5) @ New York Jets
The Skinny: The Jets are one of the teams with an outside chance at the #1 pick. I had an inclination to take them this week, but then I’ve remembered past hunches about this team and getting burned. So, I’m reluctantly taking the Bills.
Straight up: Buffalo
Against the Spread: Buffalo
The Match-up: Carolina (-4.0) @ Atlanta
The Skinny: The Panthers need a win to clinch a playoff berth, so they’ll pull out all the stops. One problem – they have lost seven straight in Atlanta and are 1-9 all time in the Georgia Dome. Atlanta may not spoil the Panthers’ season, but they’ll give them a game.
Straight up: Carolina
Against the Spread: Atlanta
The Match-up: Detroit (+13.5) @ Pittsburgh
The Skinny: See “Cincinnati (+7.5) @ Kansas City”
Straight up: Pittsburgh
Against the Spread: Pittsburgh
The Match-up: Baltimore (-3.0) @ Cleveland
The Skinny: The Browns look to bounce back from last week’s 41-0 embarrassment at the hands of the Steelers. Baltimore, meanwhile, has players and coaches fighting for jobs next season.
Straight up: Baltimore
Against the Spread: Baltimore
The Match-up: New Orleans (+13.5) @ Tampa Bay
The Skinny: The Bucs control their own destiny in terms of winning the NFC South.
Straight up: Tampa Bay
Against the Spread: Tampa Bay
The Match-up: Seattle (+4.5) @ Green Bay
The Skinny: Shaun Alexander has a chance to break the single-season touchdown record, so he’ll start. Chances are he’ll score early to clinch the record, then join the other Seattle starters on the bench.
Straight up: Green Bay
Against the Spread: Green Bay
The Match-up: Arizona (+6.5) @ Indianapolis
The Skinny: Welcome back, Coach Dungy.
Straight up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Indianapolis
The Match-up: Houston (-1.0) @ San Francisco
The Skinny: If the Texans end up with the #1 pick, guys like Domanick Davis and Johnathan Wells could end up on the trading block (Note to Texans front office – grab some offensive linemen).
Straight up: San Francisco
Against the Spread: San Francisco
The Match-up: Tennessee (+3.5) @ Jacksonville
The Skinny: Jacksonville is the #5 seed, win lose or draw, and they’re 3-1 behind David Garrard, with that one loss at the hands of the mighty Colts. So why all the talk about Byron Leftwich suiting up this week?
Straight up: Jacksonville
Against the Spread: Jacksonville
The Match-up: Chicago (+4.0) @ Minnesota
The Skinny: Normally, I would advise that the Bears sit Rex Grossman. But he’s been out for so long, and developing chemistry with the offense wouldn’t be a bad thing. Plus, if the worst happens and Grossman gets hurt (again), Kyle Orton waits in the wings, and he did a solid job as a starter in Grossman’s absence.
Straight up: Chicago
Against the Spread: Chicago
The Match-up: Washington (-7.5) @ Philadelphia
The Skinny: For the Redskins, it’s simple – win and they’re in. The Eagles would love nothing more than to spoil Washington’s hopes.
Straight up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia
The Match-up: St. Louis (+12.5) @ Dallas
The Skinny: There actually will be a perfect record in the NFL this season…16 times the Dallas Cowboys took the field, and 16 times I’ve picked against them. No playoffs for the Cowgirls, and another retirement for Bill Parcells. Good riddance, Tuna.
Straight up: St. Louis
Against the Spread: St. Louis
Friday, December 23, 2005
The Week 16 Picks
Before we get started, I want to personally express my condolences to Colts head coach Tony Dungy on the death of his son, James, who apparently committed suicide this week at the age of 18. As a father, I couldn’t imagine losing one of my children, especially around the holidays. So whether you celebrate Christmas, Hanukkah, or Kwanzaa, say a prayer for Coach Dungy and his family.
I wish you all a safe and happy holiday season
The Match-up: Tennessee (+5.5) @ Miami
The Skinny: Sounds more like a Peach Bowl than a meaningless Week 16 NFL match-up (and, quite frankly, a more intriguing one).
Straight up: Miami
Against the Spread: Miami
The Match-up: Detroit (+3.0) @ New Orleans
The Skinny: Both teams are just a mess. The Lions are back to Joey Harrington, who actually showed signs of life in relief of Jeff Garcia a week ago. New Orleans started Todd Bouman last week, and he showed up Aaron Brooks…by tossing 4 picks! Brutal.
Straight up: New Orleans
Against the Spread: New Orleans
The Match-up: Atlanta (+3.0) @ Tampa Bay
The Skinny: Ron Mexico faces his nemesis on Saturday, as the Bucs always seem to make Mexico one-dimensional (and not the good dimension, either).
Straight up: Tampa Bay
Against the Spread: Tampa Bay
The Match-up: Buffalo (+14.0) @ Cincinnati
The Skinny: Chad Johnson is at it again. He stated this week that he had a Christmas-themed TD celebration planned that would incorporate a reindeer. Fun stuff.
Straight up: Cincinnati
Against the Spread: Buffalo
The Match-up: New York Giants (+3.0) @ Washington
The Skinny: Loyal readers should know what’s coming here. Eli Manning on the road against a VERY good defense? It’s almost like stealing.
Straight up: Washington
Against the Spread: Washington
The Match-up: Cleveland (+7.0) @ Pittsburgh
The Skinny: Desperation tells me that the Steelers will come to play on Saturday. They’re still alive, and can’t afford a let-down against their bitter rival. Speaking of, I gave you Miami as a potential sleeper for next year, but how about the Browns in that same vain?
Straight up: Pittsburgh
Against the Spread: Pittsburgh
The Match-up: Dallas (+5.0) @ Carolina
The Skinny: Nice effort by the Cowgirls last week. Another loss this week in Carolina should pretty much seal their fate.
Straight up: Carolina
Against the Spread: Carolina
The Match-up: Jacksonville (-6.0) @ Houston
The Skinny: The Texans actually hurt themselves with a win last week, dropping them into a tie with San Francisco for the worst record in the Reggie Bush sweepstakes.
Straight up: Houston
Against the Spread: Houston
The Match-up: San Diego (Pick) @ Kansas City
The Skinny: Good match-up between the top-ranked Chargers run defense and the 100-yards per game streak of pro-bowler Larry Johnson. It may be hard for San Diego to get all the way up for this one (which explains the line a little bit), but I’ll take a chance on them..
Straight up: San Diego
Against the Spread: San Diego
The Match-up: San Francisco (+9.0) @ St. Louis
The Skinny: Did you know that 49ers quarterback Alex Smith, the number one overall pick of a year ago, was a high school teammate of Reggie Bush? They may be together again very, very soon.
Straight up: St. Louis
Against the Spread: St. Louis
The Match-up: Philadelphia (+1.0) @ Arizona
The Skinny: If only you could combine these two offenses and put Boldin and Fitzgerald on the Eagles…
Straight up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia
The Match-up: Indianapolis (+10.0) @ Seattle
The Skinny: Suddenly, this game seems meaningless. True, it could be a Super Bowl preview. However, questions arise. Now that the perfect season has come and gone, how much will the Colts starters play? And, will the team be able to focus with Tony Dungy dealing with the personal tragedy that befell him this week? I almost feel disrespectful making a pick in this game.
Straight up: Seattle
Against the Spread: Seattle
The Match-up: Oakland (+13.0) @ Denver
The Skinny: Even if Raiders RB LaMont Jordan was healthy, I still would have taken Denver.
Straight up: Denver
Against the Spread: Denver
The Match-up: Chicago (-7.0) @ Green Bay
The Skinny: Is this the end for Brett Favre? If so, it’s a shame to see him go out like this. Just in case, congratulations on a hall of fame career, Brett.
Straight up: Chicago
Against the Spread: Chicago
The Match-up: Minnesota (+2.5) @ Baltimore
The Skinny: Okay, as a guy who thought the Ravens were going to be a contender this year, I have to ask - where has this offense been all year?
Straight up: Baltimore
Against the Spread: Baltimore
The Match-up: New England (-5.5) @ New York Jets
The Skinny: It’s the finale for Monday Night Football on ABC, and they’ll focus more on the history of the program as opposed to the actual game. The Patriots are starting to look like, well, the Patriots, and they’re the team no one wants to play in the playoffs. The more things change, the more they stay the same.
Straight up: New England
Against the Spread: New England
I wish you all a safe and happy holiday season
The Match-up: Tennessee (+5.5) @ Miami
The Skinny: Sounds more like a Peach Bowl than a meaningless Week 16 NFL match-up (and, quite frankly, a more intriguing one).
Straight up: Miami
Against the Spread: Miami
The Match-up: Detroit (+3.0) @ New Orleans
The Skinny: Both teams are just a mess. The Lions are back to Joey Harrington, who actually showed signs of life in relief of Jeff Garcia a week ago. New Orleans started Todd Bouman last week, and he showed up Aaron Brooks…by tossing 4 picks! Brutal.
Straight up: New Orleans
Against the Spread: New Orleans
The Match-up: Atlanta (+3.0) @ Tampa Bay
The Skinny: Ron Mexico faces his nemesis on Saturday, as the Bucs always seem to make Mexico one-dimensional (and not the good dimension, either).
Straight up: Tampa Bay
Against the Spread: Tampa Bay
The Match-up: Buffalo (+14.0) @ Cincinnati
The Skinny: Chad Johnson is at it again. He stated this week that he had a Christmas-themed TD celebration planned that would incorporate a reindeer. Fun stuff.
Straight up: Cincinnati
Against the Spread: Buffalo
The Match-up: New York Giants (+3.0) @ Washington
The Skinny: Loyal readers should know what’s coming here. Eli Manning on the road against a VERY good defense? It’s almost like stealing.
Straight up: Washington
Against the Spread: Washington
The Match-up: Cleveland (+7.0) @ Pittsburgh
The Skinny: Desperation tells me that the Steelers will come to play on Saturday. They’re still alive, and can’t afford a let-down against their bitter rival. Speaking of, I gave you Miami as a potential sleeper for next year, but how about the Browns in that same vain?
Straight up: Pittsburgh
Against the Spread: Pittsburgh
The Match-up: Dallas (+5.0) @ Carolina
The Skinny: Nice effort by the Cowgirls last week. Another loss this week in Carolina should pretty much seal their fate.
Straight up: Carolina
Against the Spread: Carolina
The Match-up: Jacksonville (-6.0) @ Houston
The Skinny: The Texans actually hurt themselves with a win last week, dropping them into a tie with San Francisco for the worst record in the Reggie Bush sweepstakes.
Straight up: Houston
Against the Spread: Houston
The Match-up: San Diego (Pick) @ Kansas City
The Skinny: Good match-up between the top-ranked Chargers run defense and the 100-yards per game streak of pro-bowler Larry Johnson. It may be hard for San Diego to get all the way up for this one (which explains the line a little bit), but I’ll take a chance on them..
Straight up: San Diego
Against the Spread: San Diego
The Match-up: San Francisco (+9.0) @ St. Louis
The Skinny: Did you know that 49ers quarterback Alex Smith, the number one overall pick of a year ago, was a high school teammate of Reggie Bush? They may be together again very, very soon.
Straight up: St. Louis
Against the Spread: St. Louis
The Match-up: Philadelphia (+1.0) @ Arizona
The Skinny: If only you could combine these two offenses and put Boldin and Fitzgerald on the Eagles…
Straight up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia
The Match-up: Indianapolis (+10.0) @ Seattle
The Skinny: Suddenly, this game seems meaningless. True, it could be a Super Bowl preview. However, questions arise. Now that the perfect season has come and gone, how much will the Colts starters play? And, will the team be able to focus with Tony Dungy dealing with the personal tragedy that befell him this week? I almost feel disrespectful making a pick in this game.
Straight up: Seattle
Against the Spread: Seattle
The Match-up: Oakland (+13.0) @ Denver
The Skinny: Even if Raiders RB LaMont Jordan was healthy, I still would have taken Denver.
Straight up: Denver
Against the Spread: Denver
The Match-up: Chicago (-7.0) @ Green Bay
The Skinny: Is this the end for Brett Favre? If so, it’s a shame to see him go out like this. Just in case, congratulations on a hall of fame career, Brett.
Straight up: Chicago
Against the Spread: Chicago
The Match-up: Minnesota (+2.5) @ Baltimore
The Skinny: Okay, as a guy who thought the Ravens were going to be a contender this year, I have to ask - where has this offense been all year?
Straight up: Baltimore
Against the Spread: Baltimore
The Match-up: New England (-5.5) @ New York Jets
The Skinny: It’s the finale for Monday Night Football on ABC, and they’ll focus more on the history of the program as opposed to the actual game. The Patriots are starting to look like, well, the Patriots, and they’re the team no one wants to play in the playoffs. The more things change, the more they stay the same.
Straight up: New England
Against the Spread: New England
Friday, December 16, 2005
And Down the Stretch they Come - The Week 15 Picks
News flash – I’m not black.
Maybe that’s why I can’t understand the comments made by J. Whyatt “Jerry” Mondesire, the head of the Philadelphia chapter of the NAACP, in which he criticized Eagles QB Donovan McNabb for not running the ball more, adding that McNabb’s failing to scramble “not only amounts to a breach of faith but also belittles the real struggles of black athletes who've had to overcome real racial stereotypcasting in addition to downright segregation.”
Um, Jerry, what the hell are you talking about?
Perhaps, in the grand scheme of things, McNabb running less this season had something to do with the bruised sternum, sports hernia, and groin injuries he was playing through. Maybe it’s not about race, but rather it’s about wins and losses. McNabb didn’t run as much last year, but the Eagles were 13-3 and a Super Bowl team. Coincidentally, there were no complaints from the NAACP about him selling out. If the Eagles were 8-5 and in the playoff hunt as opposed to 5-8 and eliminated from playoff contention, would we even know who Jerry Mondesire is?
Look, I don’t know ‘5’ personally, but I can pretty much guarantee you that when he dropped back in the pocket and saw a lane to run through, his thought process did not involve retarding the progress of black athletes across the globe. Think of it this way – did Steve Young set white people back because he was a scrambling quarterback and not the typical pocket passer? Of course not.
In case you were unaware, the last three letters of the acronym “NAACP” stand for “Advancement of Colored People.” I’m not sure how Mondesire’s comments do anything to foster the advancement of black athletes. Don’t get me wrong, he’s as entitled to his opinion as I am to mine, but it would seem to me that using the forum he did might lead someone to believe that his opinion is that of the NAACP and not that of a bitter Eagles fan.
Speaking of which, how about a little slack for the Eagles? This is a team that went to four straight NFC Championship games and a Super Bowl in the last four seasons. They have a down year, and now all of a sudden they need a new coach, a GM, a new quarterback, and new ownership. Come on, people. The reality of the situation is that the Eagles have had a lot to deal with this year (including significant injuries and a clubhouse cancer that, thankfully, was eradicated), and they slipped a little. But they don’t need to blow the whole thing up and start over. There is still a nucleus of talent with this team (McNabb, Brian Westbrook, Jevon Kearse, Jeremiah Trotter, Brian Dawkins, Sheldon Brown, Lito Sheppard, Michael Lewis, David Akers) and there are some young players in place who look like legitimate NFL players (Trent Cole, Reggie Brown, Ryan Moats, Shawn Andrews). Believe me, the Eagles will be back.
Alright, that’s enough soap box for this week. I like that the NFL starts playing on Saturdays now that college football is into the Bowl season. It gives the marginal basketball fans (like myself) something to watch on a Saturday afternoon. It’s one reason why the NFL is so popular. Another reason? Parity. That said, there are a few games that are tough to call this week, as detailed below in the Week 15 picks. Here they are.
The Match-up: Tampa Bay (+4.5) @ New England
The Skinny: If Brady was healthy, I’d probably take the Pats because of Tampa’s history in cold weather. But the Bucs impressed me by going into Carolina and dominating last week against one of the best defenses in the league.
Straight up: New England
Against the Spread: Tampa Bay
The Match-up: Kansas City (+3.0) @ New York Giants
The Skinny: The G-Men got all they could handle from the Eagles practice squad last week, and they won’t sleep on a team like K.C. Eli Manning is a much better QB at home, and since this game is in the swamps of Jersey, I like big blue.
Straight up: New York Giants
Against the Spread: New York Giants
The Match-up: Denver (-8.5) @ Buffalo
The Skinny: If only the Bills had a QB that could take advantage of the injured Broncos secondary…
Straight up: Denver
Against the Spread: Denver
The Match-up: San Francisco (+15.5) @ Jacksonville
The Skinny: Jacksonville’s last three games of the season are against Frisco, Houston, and Tennessee. In other words, there’s no need for Byron Leftwich to hurry back from his broken ankle.
Straight up: Jacksonville
Against the Spread: San Francisco
The Match-up: Arizona (-1.5) @ Houston
The Skinny: Anybody else think the Texans are tanking it to get Reggie Bush? Me too.
Straight up: Houston
Against the Spread: Houston
The Match-up: Seattle (-7.0) @ Tennessee
The Skinny: The Seahawks have had their problems on the road, but shouldn’t on Sunday.
Straight up: Seattle
Against the Spread: Seattle
The Match-up: San Diego (+7.5) @ Indianapolis
The Skinny: The Chargers need this game, and there’s no telling how long Tony Dungy will play his starters. I don’t know if San Diego will win this game, but they’ll play like it’s the post-season.
Straight up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: San Diego
The Match-up: Philadelphia (+3.5) @ St. Louis
The Skinny: I guess Ryan Fitzpatrick is not the next Kurt Warner.
Straight up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia
The Match-up: New York Jets (+8.5) @ Miami
The Skinny: The Dolphins are an early contender for a 2006 sleeper team.
Straight up: Miami
Against the Spread: Miami
The Match-up: Pittsburgh (-3.0) @ Minnesota
The Skinny: The Vikings’ winning streak has to come to an end sometime.
Straight up: Pittsburgh
Against the Spread: Pittsburgh
The Match-up: Carolina (-9.0) @ New Orleans
The Skinny: The Saints shocked the Panthers in the season opener. Don’t think that the Panthers forgot that.
Straight up: Carolina
Against the Spread: Carolina
The Match-up: Cincinnati (-8.0) @ Detroit
The Skinny: Early congratulations to the Bengals for ending their 15-year playoff drought. Here’s hoping they don’t make any more music videos.
Straight up: Cincinnati
Against the Spread: Cincinnati
The Match-up: Cleveland (+3.0) @ Oakland
The Skinny: First coach to get fired in the off-season? My money is on Norv Turner. I wonder if the Browns would have been better suited playing Charlie Frye all season.
Straight up: Oakland
Against the Spread: Oakland
The Match-up: Dallas (+3.0) @ Washington
The Skinny: Since the Eagles have been eliminated from the playoffs, I’ve adopted the “ABC” philosophy – Anybody But the Cowboys.
Straight up: Washington
Against the Spread: Washington
The Match-up: Atlanta (+3.0) @ Chicago
The Skinny: Dome teams in Chicago in December usually don’t fare well.
Straight up: Chicago
Against the Spread: Chicago
The Match-up: Green Bay (+3.5) @ Baltimore
The Skinny: As bad as the Packers are, it’s Monday Night Football and its Brett Favre. I just can’t bring myself to take the Ravens.
Straight up: Green Bay
Against the Spread: Green Bay
Maybe that’s why I can’t understand the comments made by J. Whyatt “Jerry” Mondesire, the head of the Philadelphia chapter of the NAACP, in which he criticized Eagles QB Donovan McNabb for not running the ball more, adding that McNabb’s failing to scramble “not only amounts to a breach of faith but also belittles the real struggles of black athletes who've had to overcome real racial stereotypcasting in addition to downright segregation.”
Um, Jerry, what the hell are you talking about?
Perhaps, in the grand scheme of things, McNabb running less this season had something to do with the bruised sternum, sports hernia, and groin injuries he was playing through. Maybe it’s not about race, but rather it’s about wins and losses. McNabb didn’t run as much last year, but the Eagles were 13-3 and a Super Bowl team. Coincidentally, there were no complaints from the NAACP about him selling out. If the Eagles were 8-5 and in the playoff hunt as opposed to 5-8 and eliminated from playoff contention, would we even know who Jerry Mondesire is?
Look, I don’t know ‘5’ personally, but I can pretty much guarantee you that when he dropped back in the pocket and saw a lane to run through, his thought process did not involve retarding the progress of black athletes across the globe. Think of it this way – did Steve Young set white people back because he was a scrambling quarterback and not the typical pocket passer? Of course not.
In case you were unaware, the last three letters of the acronym “NAACP” stand for “Advancement of Colored People.” I’m not sure how Mondesire’s comments do anything to foster the advancement of black athletes. Don’t get me wrong, he’s as entitled to his opinion as I am to mine, but it would seem to me that using the forum he did might lead someone to believe that his opinion is that of the NAACP and not that of a bitter Eagles fan.
Speaking of which, how about a little slack for the Eagles? This is a team that went to four straight NFC Championship games and a Super Bowl in the last four seasons. They have a down year, and now all of a sudden they need a new coach, a GM, a new quarterback, and new ownership. Come on, people. The reality of the situation is that the Eagles have had a lot to deal with this year (including significant injuries and a clubhouse cancer that, thankfully, was eradicated), and they slipped a little. But they don’t need to blow the whole thing up and start over. There is still a nucleus of talent with this team (McNabb, Brian Westbrook, Jevon Kearse, Jeremiah Trotter, Brian Dawkins, Sheldon Brown, Lito Sheppard, Michael Lewis, David Akers) and there are some young players in place who look like legitimate NFL players (Trent Cole, Reggie Brown, Ryan Moats, Shawn Andrews). Believe me, the Eagles will be back.
Alright, that’s enough soap box for this week. I like that the NFL starts playing on Saturdays now that college football is into the Bowl season. It gives the marginal basketball fans (like myself) something to watch on a Saturday afternoon. It’s one reason why the NFL is so popular. Another reason? Parity. That said, there are a few games that are tough to call this week, as detailed below in the Week 15 picks. Here they are.
The Match-up: Tampa Bay (+4.5) @ New England
The Skinny: If Brady was healthy, I’d probably take the Pats because of Tampa’s history in cold weather. But the Bucs impressed me by going into Carolina and dominating last week against one of the best defenses in the league.
Straight up: New England
Against the Spread: Tampa Bay
The Match-up: Kansas City (+3.0) @ New York Giants
The Skinny: The G-Men got all they could handle from the Eagles practice squad last week, and they won’t sleep on a team like K.C. Eli Manning is a much better QB at home, and since this game is in the swamps of Jersey, I like big blue.
Straight up: New York Giants
Against the Spread: New York Giants
The Match-up: Denver (-8.5) @ Buffalo
The Skinny: If only the Bills had a QB that could take advantage of the injured Broncos secondary…
Straight up: Denver
Against the Spread: Denver
The Match-up: San Francisco (+15.5) @ Jacksonville
The Skinny: Jacksonville’s last three games of the season are against Frisco, Houston, and Tennessee. In other words, there’s no need for Byron Leftwich to hurry back from his broken ankle.
Straight up: Jacksonville
Against the Spread: San Francisco
The Match-up: Arizona (-1.5) @ Houston
The Skinny: Anybody else think the Texans are tanking it to get Reggie Bush? Me too.
Straight up: Houston
Against the Spread: Houston
The Match-up: Seattle (-7.0) @ Tennessee
The Skinny: The Seahawks have had their problems on the road, but shouldn’t on Sunday.
Straight up: Seattle
Against the Spread: Seattle
The Match-up: San Diego (+7.5) @ Indianapolis
The Skinny: The Chargers need this game, and there’s no telling how long Tony Dungy will play his starters. I don’t know if San Diego will win this game, but they’ll play like it’s the post-season.
Straight up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: San Diego
The Match-up: Philadelphia (+3.5) @ St. Louis
The Skinny: I guess Ryan Fitzpatrick is not the next Kurt Warner.
Straight up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia
The Match-up: New York Jets (+8.5) @ Miami
The Skinny: The Dolphins are an early contender for a 2006 sleeper team.
Straight up: Miami
Against the Spread: Miami
The Match-up: Pittsburgh (-3.0) @ Minnesota
The Skinny: The Vikings’ winning streak has to come to an end sometime.
Straight up: Pittsburgh
Against the Spread: Pittsburgh
The Match-up: Carolina (-9.0) @ New Orleans
The Skinny: The Saints shocked the Panthers in the season opener. Don’t think that the Panthers forgot that.
Straight up: Carolina
Against the Spread: Carolina
The Match-up: Cincinnati (-8.0) @ Detroit
The Skinny: Early congratulations to the Bengals for ending their 15-year playoff drought. Here’s hoping they don’t make any more music videos.
Straight up: Cincinnati
Against the Spread: Cincinnati
The Match-up: Cleveland (+3.0) @ Oakland
The Skinny: First coach to get fired in the off-season? My money is on Norv Turner. I wonder if the Browns would have been better suited playing Charlie Frye all season.
Straight up: Oakland
Against the Spread: Oakland
The Match-up: Dallas (+3.0) @ Washington
The Skinny: Since the Eagles have been eliminated from the playoffs, I’ve adopted the “ABC” philosophy – Anybody But the Cowboys.
Straight up: Washington
Against the Spread: Washington
The Match-up: Atlanta (+3.0) @ Chicago
The Skinny: Dome teams in Chicago in December usually don’t fare well.
Straight up: Chicago
Against the Spread: Chicago
The Match-up: Green Bay (+3.5) @ Baltimore
The Skinny: As bad as the Packers are, it’s Monday Night Football and its Brett Favre. I just can’t bring myself to take the Ravens.
Straight up: Green Bay
Against the Spread: Green Bay
Friday, December 09, 2005
The Week 14 Picks
Embarrassing…
Frustrating…
Pathetic…
Unfortunate…
I know what you’re thinking - the Eagles on Monday night against Seattle. Well, yes, but I was actually referring to my Fantasy Football team. Last year, I won the championship. This year, I’m in 10th place in a ten team league. I’ve just been snake-bitten this year, as you’ll see from the following summary:
Ø For starters, I drew 9th in the draft order. My strategy was going to be to take the best RB on the board at 9, then take Donovan McNabb at 12 (except that ‘5’ went 3rd overall, hence a monkey wrench was thrown into the system).
Ø I traded Domanick Davis for Tiki Barber, only to then package Barber in a deal for Rudi Johnson, who I then traded with Reggie Wayne for Curtis Martin, Donte' Stallworth, and Duce Staley. I recently dealt Martin for convicted felon Jamal Lewis.
Ø I acquired Ahman Green for Corey Dillon. Green played about a half of football for me before rupturing a thigh tendon and being shelved for the season.
Ø I picked up Eric Moulds from Buffalo, who was just suspended by the team after failing to catch a pass last week for the first time in 121 games.
Ø I decided against trading Byron Leftwich for Drew Brees a week before Leftwich broke his ankle.
Ø Had I not made any trades, I could have fielded a team last week of Jake Plummer (11.84 points), Ben Roethlisberger (21.64), Corey Dillon (14.40), Thomas Jones (9.30), Reggie Wayne (11.00), T.J. Houshmandzadeh (21.50), Lee Evans (29.70), Randy McMichael (4.10), John Kasay (6.00), and the Jacksonville defense (6.00) for a grand total of 135.48 points. Instead, my team featuring guys like Jeff Garcia, Curtis Martin, Moulds, and Stallworth netted me a whopping 59.88 points.
Anyway, now that I have totally given up on my Fantasy team for the year, I can focus on my NFL Picks league, which I’m still winning (barely). Here are the Week 14 picks.
The Match-up: New England (-3.5) @ Buffalo
The Skinny: The Patriots can clinch the AFC East with a win and a Miami loss, both of which should happen.
Straight up: New England
Against the Spread: New England
The Match-up: Chicago (+6.0) @ Pittsburgh
The Skinny: Both defenses are virtually impenetrable, especially to offenses guided by Kyle Orton and (potentially) Tommy Maddox. This has the feel of a 13-10 game, doesn’t it?
Straight up: Pittsburgh
Against the Spread: Chicago
The Match-up: Cleveland (+12.5) @ Cincinnati
The Skinny: Outspoken Cincinnati WR Chad Johnson said the Bengals could score 40 this week. You know what? I believe him.
Straight up: Cincinnati
Against the Spread: Cincinnati
The Match-up: Tampa Bay (+5.5) @ Carolina
The Skinny: The NFC South may be the best division in football, and its two top dogs face off this week in Charlotte. This could be the game of the week.
Straight up: Carolina
Against the Spread: Carolina
The Match-up: Indianapolis (-8.0) @ Jacksonville
The Skinny: The Colts have a few high hurdles to get over en route to 16-0, the first of which is in Jacksonville this week.
Straight up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Jacksonville
The Match-up: Houston (+7.0) @ Tennessee
The Skinny: After another come-from-ahead loss last week, it’s only a matter of time until the Texans break through and actually finish a game.
Straight up: Houston
Against the Spread: Houston
The Match-up: St. Louis (+7.0) @ Minnesota
The Skinny: The resurgent Vikings could close to within a game of division-leading Chicago with a win over the Rams and a Bears loss in Pittsburgh.
Straight up: Minnesota
Against the Spread: Minnesota
The Match-up: Oakland (-3.0) @ New York Jets
The Skinny: LaMont Jordan returns to the Meadowlands, and will have to be the focal point of Oakland’s offense (with Kerry Collins benched in favor of Marques Tuiasosopo).
Straight up: Oakland
Against the Spread: Oakland
The Match-up: San Francisco (+16.0) @ Seattle
The Skinny: Shaun Alexander for NFL MVP? He’s as good a choice as anybody.
Straight up: Seattle
Against the Spread: Seattle
The Match-up: New York Giants (-9.0) @ Philadelphia
The Skinny: When is a QB Controversy not a QB Controversy? When the options are Mike McMahon and Koy Detmer.
Straight up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia
The Match-up: Washington (-4.0) @ Arizona
The Skinny: The Redskins got back on the winning track last week in St. Louis. Another road test awaits Washington this week in Arizona.
Straight up: Washington
Against the Spread: Washington
The Match-up: Miami (+13.5) @ San Diego
The Skinny: The Chargers are legit, and may be the second best team in the AFC (sorry, Bengals fans).
Straight up: San Diego
Against the Spread: Miami
The Match-up: Kansas City (+3.0) @ Dallas
The Skinny: Let me think about it…I’ll take K.C.
Straight up: Kansas City
Against the Spread: Kansas City
The Match-up: Baltimore (+14.0) @ Denver
The Skinny: After another loss in their house of horrors, Arrowhead Stadium, the Broncos return to the friendly confines of Mile High to take on the depleted Ravens.
Straight up: Denver
Against the Spread: Denver
The Match-up: Detroit (+6.0) @ Green Bay
The Skinny: It’s an epic running back battle between Artose Pinner and Samkon Gado. Save the uniforms in case Canton comes calling some day.
Straight up: Green Bay
Against the Spread: Green Bay
The Match-up: New Orleans (+10.5) @ Atlanta
The Skinny: I just traded for Aaron Brooks and Joe Horn, so look for three picks from Brooks, a season-ending injury to Horn, and a big Falcons victory.
Straight up: Atlanta
Against the Spread: Atlanta
Friday, December 02, 2005
The Week 13 Picks
As Charles Barkley or Dennis Rodman would tell you, rebounding is the key to success. That concept was employed last week, as The Kid bounced back from a dismal 7-9 and 2-14 Week 11 by nailing 14 winners in Week 12 and putting up a 12-3-1 record against the spread. Think Armando Cuko, but on a much smaller scale.
One quick note before we move onto the picks. Those of you who know me had to know I would hit on the Michael Irvin story that broke this week. Irvin, one of my all-time “favorites,” was arrested for an outstanding speeding ticket in Plano, TX and a search of his vehicle turned up drug paraphernalia (which, of course, he claimed was not his). This, of course, was not Irvin’s first run in with the law. Some years back, he pleaded no contest to drug charges when he was found in a hotel room with hookers and dinner plates full of cocaine. Since then, Irvin has stayed relatively clean (loosely translated, he hasn’t been caught doing anything wrong) and appeared to have turned his life around. I guess not. The lesson? A leopard doesn’t change its spots. Maybe I shouldn’t take such pleasure in a guy being busted for drugs, but when that guy is Michael Irvin, somehow I find it justifiable. Maybe that’s just me. But then, I’m the guy who started the standing ovation when Irvin broke his neck on the Veterans Stadium turf, so I guess we’ve all got issues.
Anyway, here are the Week 13 picks.
The Match-up: Tampa Bay (-3.5) @ New Orleans
The Skinny: The Saints always seem to give the Bucs fits, but that’s due in large part to Deuce McAllister, who is on the shelf. Tampa needs this one to keep their playoff hopes alive.
Straight up: Tampa Bay
Against the Spread: Tampa Bay
The Match-up: Dallas (+3.0) @ New York Giants
The Skinny: The winner takes control of the NFC East – for now.
Straight up: New York Giants
Against the Spread: New York Giants
The Match-up: Green Bay (+7.0) @ Chicago
The Skinny: This season can’t end fast enough for the Packers.
Straight up: Chicago
Against the Spread: Chicago
The Match-up: Cincinnati (+3.5) @ Pittsburgh
The Skinny: Tough one to call, because Big Ben is nicked up (again) and will give it a try with a bruised thumb. If he struggles, so will the Steelers. But I’ll take a shot on them.
Straight up: Pittsburgh
Against the Spread: Pittsburgh
The Match-up: Jacksonville (-3.0) @ Cleveland
The Skinny: David Garrard is in at QB for the Jags, which should not hurt Jacksonville’s playoff run, at least not this week against the Browns.
Straight up: Jacksonville
Against the Spread: Jacksonville
The Match-up: Minnesota (-3.0) @ Detroit
The Skinny: Minnesota has been on a pretty good run lately, and Detroit is in turmoil after Steve Mariucci got axed this week. So why do I like the Lions in an upset?
Straight up: Detroit
Against the Spread: Detroit
The Match-up: Tennessee (+16.0) @ Indianapolis
The Skinny: When you’re 11-0 and chasing history, every week is a challenge, only at various degrees. Monday night against the Steelers was a tough one. This week against Tennessee? Not so much.
Straight up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Indianapolis
The Match-up: Atlanta (+3.0) @ Carolina
The Skinny: Interesting stat of the week #1 – Ron Mexico is 5-0 lifetime against the Carolina Panthers. Good enough for me.
Straight up: Atlanta
Against the Spread: Atlanta
The Match-up: Houston (+8.0) @ Baltimore
The Skinny: Before blowing a 21 point lead in the second half last week, the Texans looked pretty good. If they play like that for 60 minutes, they’ll beat Baltimore. They should, at the very least, give them a game.
Straight up: Baltimore
Against the Spread: Houston
The Match-up: Buffalo (+4.0) @ Miami
The Skinny: Very impressed by the Dolphins last week, hanging 33 on the Raiders in a big road win. Will the Fish keep it going against the Bills?
Straight up: Miami
Against the Spread: Miami
The Match-up: Arizona (-3.0) @ San Francisco
The Skinny: The QB carousel in San Fran is back to rookie Alex Smith. Right, because that worked well the first time around.
Straight up: Arizona
Against the Spread: Arizona
The Match-up: Washington (-3.0) @ St. Louis
The Skinny: Remember when the Redskins were 5-2 and talking about the playoffs? Now they’re 5-6 and fighting to stay out of the NFC East cellar. That’s why they say “NFL” stands for “Not For Long.”
Straight up: St. Louis
Against the Spread: St. Louis
The Match-up: New York Jets (+10.0) @ New England
The Skinny: You know, I don’t think the Jets are a very good football team. It only took me twelve weeks to figure that out.
Straight up: New England
Against the Spread: New England
The Match-up: Denver (-1.0) @ Kansas City
The Skinny: Interesting stat of the week #2 – Denver is 1-3 in their last 4 games at Arrowhead, and the Broncos are 1-13 all time in 14 December games in Kansas City. Again, good enough for me.
Straight up: Kansas City
Against the Spread: Kansas City
The Match-up: Oakland (+11.5) @ San Diego
The Skinny: LaDanian Tomlinson always torches Oakland.
Straight up: San Diego
Against the Spread: San Diego
The Match-up: Seattle (-4.0) @ Philadelphia
The Skinny: High emotions in Philly on Monday as the Eagles pay tribute to the late, great Reggie White. How can you bet against the Eagles when they’ve got #92 in their corner?
Straight up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia
One quick note before we move onto the picks. Those of you who know me had to know I would hit on the Michael Irvin story that broke this week. Irvin, one of my all-time “favorites,” was arrested for an outstanding speeding ticket in Plano, TX and a search of his vehicle turned up drug paraphernalia (which, of course, he claimed was not his). This, of course, was not Irvin’s first run in with the law. Some years back, he pleaded no contest to drug charges when he was found in a hotel room with hookers and dinner plates full of cocaine. Since then, Irvin has stayed relatively clean (loosely translated, he hasn’t been caught doing anything wrong) and appeared to have turned his life around. I guess not. The lesson? A leopard doesn’t change its spots. Maybe I shouldn’t take such pleasure in a guy being busted for drugs, but when that guy is Michael Irvin, somehow I find it justifiable. Maybe that’s just me. But then, I’m the guy who started the standing ovation when Irvin broke his neck on the Veterans Stadium turf, so I guess we’ve all got issues.
Anyway, here are the Week 13 picks.
The Match-up: Tampa Bay (-3.5) @ New Orleans
The Skinny: The Saints always seem to give the Bucs fits, but that’s due in large part to Deuce McAllister, who is on the shelf. Tampa needs this one to keep their playoff hopes alive.
Straight up: Tampa Bay
Against the Spread: Tampa Bay
The Match-up: Dallas (+3.0) @ New York Giants
The Skinny: The winner takes control of the NFC East – for now.
Straight up: New York Giants
Against the Spread: New York Giants
The Match-up: Green Bay (+7.0) @ Chicago
The Skinny: This season can’t end fast enough for the Packers.
Straight up: Chicago
Against the Spread: Chicago
The Match-up: Cincinnati (+3.5) @ Pittsburgh
The Skinny: Tough one to call, because Big Ben is nicked up (again) and will give it a try with a bruised thumb. If he struggles, so will the Steelers. But I’ll take a shot on them.
Straight up: Pittsburgh
Against the Spread: Pittsburgh
The Match-up: Jacksonville (-3.0) @ Cleveland
The Skinny: David Garrard is in at QB for the Jags, which should not hurt Jacksonville’s playoff run, at least not this week against the Browns.
Straight up: Jacksonville
Against the Spread: Jacksonville
The Match-up: Minnesota (-3.0) @ Detroit
The Skinny: Minnesota has been on a pretty good run lately, and Detroit is in turmoil after Steve Mariucci got axed this week. So why do I like the Lions in an upset?
Straight up: Detroit
Against the Spread: Detroit
The Match-up: Tennessee (+16.0) @ Indianapolis
The Skinny: When you’re 11-0 and chasing history, every week is a challenge, only at various degrees. Monday night against the Steelers was a tough one. This week against Tennessee? Not so much.
Straight up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Indianapolis
The Match-up: Atlanta (+3.0) @ Carolina
The Skinny: Interesting stat of the week #1 – Ron Mexico is 5-0 lifetime against the Carolina Panthers. Good enough for me.
Straight up: Atlanta
Against the Spread: Atlanta
The Match-up: Houston (+8.0) @ Baltimore
The Skinny: Before blowing a 21 point lead in the second half last week, the Texans looked pretty good. If they play like that for 60 minutes, they’ll beat Baltimore. They should, at the very least, give them a game.
Straight up: Baltimore
Against the Spread: Houston
The Match-up: Buffalo (+4.0) @ Miami
The Skinny: Very impressed by the Dolphins last week, hanging 33 on the Raiders in a big road win. Will the Fish keep it going against the Bills?
Straight up: Miami
Against the Spread: Miami
The Match-up: Arizona (-3.0) @ San Francisco
The Skinny: The QB carousel in San Fran is back to rookie Alex Smith. Right, because that worked well the first time around.
Straight up: Arizona
Against the Spread: Arizona
The Match-up: Washington (-3.0) @ St. Louis
The Skinny: Remember when the Redskins were 5-2 and talking about the playoffs? Now they’re 5-6 and fighting to stay out of the NFC East cellar. That’s why they say “NFL” stands for “Not For Long.”
Straight up: St. Louis
Against the Spread: St. Louis
The Match-up: New York Jets (+10.0) @ New England
The Skinny: You know, I don’t think the Jets are a very good football team. It only took me twelve weeks to figure that out.
Straight up: New England
Against the Spread: New England
The Match-up: Denver (-1.0) @ Kansas City
The Skinny: Interesting stat of the week #2 – Denver is 1-3 in their last 4 games at Arrowhead, and the Broncos are 1-13 all time in 14 December games in Kansas City. Again, good enough for me.
Straight up: Kansas City
Against the Spread: Kansas City
The Match-up: Oakland (+11.5) @ San Diego
The Skinny: LaDanian Tomlinson always torches Oakland.
Straight up: San Diego
Against the Spread: San Diego
The Match-up: Seattle (-4.0) @ Philadelphia
The Skinny: High emotions in Philly on Monday as the Eagles pay tribute to the late, great Reggie White. How can you bet against the Eagles when they’ve got #92 in their corner?
Straight up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia
Friday, November 25, 2005
Turkey Day Leftovers - The Rest of the Week 12 Picks
What a great Thanksgiving. Not only did I feast on an outstanding dinner, but the dessert was extra sweet since those bastards from Dallas lost (I'm thankful for Ron Dayne and Jason Elam). And, by winning both games yesterday, I have already matched last week's win total of 2. Sad, I know, but there's only one way to go once you've hit rock bottom. One of the best parts about Thanksgiving is eating a cold turkey sandwich made from the leftovers from the night before. Along the same lines, these are the games left on the Week 12 slate.
The Match-up: St. Louis (-4.0) @ Houston
The Skinny: Houston has played statistically the toughest schedule in the league this year. Yeah, that's what their problem is.
Straight up: St. Louis
Against the Spread: St. Louis
The Match-up: New England (+3.0) @ Kansas City
The Skinny: The Pats may have to sign me to play corner if they lose one more player.
Straight up: Kansas City
Against the Spread: Kansas City
The Match-up: Cleveland (+4.5) @ Minnesota
The Skinny: Nice rally by the Vikings. Probably too little too late with the Bears surging as they are, but still they've showed a lot of character (yes, this is the same team that took a sex cruise on their bye week, so maybe character isn't the right word).
Straight up: Minnesota
Against the Spread: Minnesota
The Match-up: Carolina (-4.0) @ Buffalo
The Skinny: Warm-weathered Carolina favored in Buffalo tells me a lot.
Straight up: Carolina
Against the Spread: Carolina
The Match-up: Chicago (+3.0) @ Tampa Bay
The Skinny: Sure, I'll take the Bears defense plus some points against young Chris Simms.
Straight up: Chicago
Against the Spread: Chicago
The Match-up: Baltimore (+9.0) @ Cincinnati
The Skinny: Memo to Chad Johnson - look at what happened with T.O. and re-think that hold out you're planning during the off-season.
Straight up: Cincinnati
Against the Spread: Cincinnati
The Match-up: San Diego (-3.0) @ Washington
The Skinny: Both teams are in playoff contention, and a win Sunday would go a long way.
Straight up: San Diego
aging the Spread: San Diego
The Match-up: San Francisco (+7.5) @ Tennessee
The Skinny: It's all about draft positioning between these two fallen powers.
Straight up: Tennessee
Against the Spread: San Francisco
The Match-up: Miami (+7.0) @ Oakland
The Skinny: That's right, I'm wagering on Sage Rosenfels on the road in November. As the saying goes, do as I say, not as I do.
Straight up: Oakland
Against the Spread: Miami
The Match-up: Jacksonville (-3.0) @ Arizona
The Skinny: Nice showing by Kurt Warner last week, but Jacksonville's defense will provide a litmus test as to whether or not Warner is officially back.
Straight up: Jacksonville
Against the Spread: Jacksonville
The Match-up: Green Bay (+4.5) @ Philadelphia
The Skinny: You heard it here first - the Eagles will win out, finish 10-6 and sneak into the playoffs.
Straight up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia
The Match-up: New York Giants (+4.5) @ Seattle
The Skinny: Did you know that the Seahawks have the best record in the NFC? The Seahawks? Unbelievable.
Straight up: Seattle
Against the Spread: Seattle
The Match-up: New Orleans (-1.5) @ New York Jets
The Skinny: At least the Jets play a little defense.
Straight up: New York Jets
Against the Spread: New York Jets
The Match-up: Pittsburgh (+7.5) @ Indianapolis
The Skinny: I wanted to take Pittsburgh, I really did. But in Indy, I just couldn't pull the trigger.
Straight up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Indianapolis
The Match-up: St. Louis (-4.0) @ Houston
The Skinny: Houston has played statistically the toughest schedule in the league this year. Yeah, that's what their problem is.
Straight up: St. Louis
Against the Spread: St. Louis
The Match-up: New England (+3.0) @ Kansas City
The Skinny: The Pats may have to sign me to play corner if they lose one more player.
Straight up: Kansas City
Against the Spread: Kansas City
The Match-up: Cleveland (+4.5) @ Minnesota
The Skinny: Nice rally by the Vikings. Probably too little too late with the Bears surging as they are, but still they've showed a lot of character (yes, this is the same team that took a sex cruise on their bye week, so maybe character isn't the right word).
Straight up: Minnesota
Against the Spread: Minnesota
The Match-up: Carolina (-4.0) @ Buffalo
The Skinny: Warm-weathered Carolina favored in Buffalo tells me a lot.
Straight up: Carolina
Against the Spread: Carolina
The Match-up: Chicago (+3.0) @ Tampa Bay
The Skinny: Sure, I'll take the Bears defense plus some points against young Chris Simms.
Straight up: Chicago
Against the Spread: Chicago
The Match-up: Baltimore (+9.0) @ Cincinnati
The Skinny: Memo to Chad Johnson - look at what happened with T.O. and re-think that hold out you're planning during the off-season.
Straight up: Cincinnati
Against the Spread: Cincinnati
The Match-up: San Diego (-3.0) @ Washington
The Skinny: Both teams are in playoff contention, and a win Sunday would go a long way.
Straight up: San Diego
aging the Spread: San Diego
The Match-up: San Francisco (+7.5) @ Tennessee
The Skinny: It's all about draft positioning between these two fallen powers.
Straight up: Tennessee
Against the Spread: San Francisco
The Match-up: Miami (+7.0) @ Oakland
The Skinny: That's right, I'm wagering on Sage Rosenfels on the road in November. As the saying goes, do as I say, not as I do.
Straight up: Oakland
Against the Spread: Miami
The Match-up: Jacksonville (-3.0) @ Arizona
The Skinny: Nice showing by Kurt Warner last week, but Jacksonville's defense will provide a litmus test as to whether or not Warner is officially back.
Straight up: Jacksonville
Against the Spread: Jacksonville
The Match-up: Green Bay (+4.5) @ Philadelphia
The Skinny: You heard it here first - the Eagles will win out, finish 10-6 and sneak into the playoffs.
Straight up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia
The Match-up: New York Giants (+4.5) @ Seattle
The Skinny: Did you know that the Seahawks have the best record in the NFC? The Seahawks? Unbelievable.
Straight up: Seattle
Against the Spread: Seattle
The Match-up: New Orleans (-1.5) @ New York Jets
The Skinny: At least the Jets play a little defense.
Straight up: New York Jets
Against the Spread: New York Jets
The Match-up: Pittsburgh (+7.5) @ Indianapolis
The Skinny: I wanted to take Pittsburgh, I really did. But in Indy, I just couldn't pull the trigger.
Straight up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Indianapolis
Wednesday, November 23, 2005
The Thanksgiving Day Deuce
Thanksgiving is hands down my favorite holiday of the year. Why? Because I get to sit around, watch football, eat until I feel the need to undo the button on my pants, and fall asleep in the recliner. My wife would tell you that's no different from how I spend every weekend. Touche.
Anyway, my Thanksgiving ritual is basically as follows:
1) Wake up and eat an enormous breakfast of eggs, bacon, and cinnamon buns.
2) Camp out in front of the TV to watch part of the Thanksgiving Day Parade (only because it is hosted by charter "List of Five" member Kelly Ripa.
3) Watch football (root for whomever is playing against Dallas).
4) Gorge myself on turkey, mashed potatoes, stuffing, corn, bread, and gravy.
5) Watch more football as the Triptophan kicks in and gently nod off.
6) Wake up just in time for dessert.
Time to add a new feature to the ritual - share with you, my loyal readers, the Turkey Day picks (the remaining games for the weekend will follow in a later post). Enjoy, and Happy Thanksgiving to you and yours.
The Match-up: Atlanta (-3.0) @ Detroit
The Skinny: I don't think either team should be making plans to return to Ford Field in February, but I do like Ron Mexico to shine on a national stage, a la Randy Moss against the Cowgirls a few years back.
Straight up: Atlanta
Against the Spread: Atlanta
The Match-up: Denver (-2.0) @ Dallas
The Skinny: The Broncos are playing some good football right now. And what would Thanksgiving be if I didn't go against the Cowboys?
Straight up: Denver
Against the Spread: Denver
Anyway, my Thanksgiving ritual is basically as follows:
1) Wake up and eat an enormous breakfast of eggs, bacon, and cinnamon buns.
2) Camp out in front of the TV to watch part of the Thanksgiving Day Parade (only because it is hosted by charter "List of Five" member Kelly Ripa.
3) Watch football (root for whomever is playing against Dallas).
4) Gorge myself on turkey, mashed potatoes, stuffing, corn, bread, and gravy.
5) Watch more football as the Triptophan kicks in and gently nod off.
6) Wake up just in time for dessert.
Time to add a new feature to the ritual - share with you, my loyal readers, the Turkey Day picks (the remaining games for the weekend will follow in a later post). Enjoy, and Happy Thanksgiving to you and yours.
The Match-up: Atlanta (-3.0) @ Detroit
The Skinny: I don't think either team should be making plans to return to Ford Field in February, but I do like Ron Mexico to shine on a national stage, a la Randy Moss against the Cowgirls a few years back.
Straight up: Atlanta
Against the Spread: Atlanta
The Match-up: Denver (-2.0) @ Dallas
The Skinny: The Broncos are playing some good football right now. And what would Thanksgiving be if I didn't go against the Cowboys?
Straight up: Denver
Against the Spread: Denver
Friday, November 18, 2005
The Week 11 Picks
It's a true road game this weekend, as the picks are coming to you live from the former home front in the Philly 'burbs. I'm also working on a dial up connection, so the picks will be brief in nature (so as not to get cut off by an incoming call). I won't even bombard you with any T.O. commentary - at least not for another week or so.
FYI - I will keep track of how many times I am disconnected through the proceedings, starting with the time it just happened [one].
The Match-up: Oakland (+6.0) @ Washington
The Skinny: The Skins are the latest team to fall victim of a coach growing stones at the end of the game when Jon Gruden went for two and the win at the gun last week. Oakland fell victim to Dick Vermeil's last-second touchdown call the week before. The two meet this week, and somebody will leave FedEx Field pissed off again.
Straight up: Washington
Against the Spread: Washington
The Match-up: Miami (+2.5) @ Cleveland
The Skinny: Don't think I've picked the Browns yet this year, and I see no reason to start now. Straight up: Miami
Against the Spread: Miami
The Match-up: Pittsburgh (off) @ Baltimore
The Skinny: Tommy Maddox vs. Kyle Boller isn't exactly good theatre.
Straight up: Pittsburgh
Against the Spread: Pittsburgh
The Match-up: Detroit (+8.0) @ Dallas
The Skinny: Dallas sucks, have I mentioned that before? Just making sure I cover all my bases.
Straight up: Detroit
Against the Spread: Detroit
The Match-up: Jacksonville (-4.0) @ Tennessee
The Skinny: Other than Indianapolis at home, the Jags have a virtual cake walk to the post-season.
Straight up: Jacksonville
Against the Spread: Jacksonville
[two]
The Match-up: Arizona (+9.5) @ St. Louis
The Skinny: The Rams are starting to regain their health and round back into form.
Straight up: St. Louis
Against the Spread: St. Louis
The Match-up: New Orleans (+9.5) @ New England
The Skinny: Notice no one is talking about the Pats three-peating any more.
Straight up: New England
Against the Spread: New England
The Match-up: Philadelphia (+7.0) @ New York Giants
The Skinny: Mike McMahon to Billy McMullen for the game-winning touchdown in the fourth quarter. Hey, it could happen.
Straight up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia
The Match-up: Tampa Bay (+6.0) @ Atlanta
The Skinny: Chris Simms may have come of age last week against Washington. Down by seven twice late, he rallied the troops to the aforementioned last-second two point conversion victory. But in Atlanta is a tough go, even though the Bucs have given Ron Mexico fits in the past.
Straight up: Atlanta
Against the Spread: Atlanta
The Match-up: Carolina (-3.0) @ Chicago
The Skinny: At 7-2, the best team in the NFC right now resides in Charlotte.
Straight up: Carolina
Against the Spread: Carolina
[three]
The Match-up: Seattle (-12.5) @ San Francisco
The Skinny: Shaun Alexander is a stud - five straight years of 15+ touchdowns? Unheard of.
Straight up: Seattle
Against the Spread: Seattle
The Match-up: New York Jets (+13.0) @ Denver
The Skinny: 13 points is just too many to give the Jets, even on the road.
Straight up: Denver
Against the Spread: New York Jets
The Match-up: Buffalo (+11.0) @ San Diego
The Skinny: Bills fans should not get too excited about the showing of J.P. Losman last week. I mean, it's not like he's Jim Kelly or anything.
Straight up: San Diego
Against the Spread: San Diego
[four - this is getting ridiculous]
The Match-up: Indianapolis (-6.0) @ Cincinatti
The Skinny: In the game of the week, I like the Colts to get to 10-0, but not without a fight from the Bengals.
Straight up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Cincinnati
[five - what the chicken?]
The Match-up: Kansas City (-7.0) @ Houston
The Skinny: The Chiefs should not miss a beat without Priest Holmes, as long as Larry Johnson keeps running the way he has.
Straight up: Kansas City
Against the Spread: Kansas City
The Match-up: Minnesota (+4.5) @ Green Bay
The Skinny: Brett Favre, Lambeau Field, Monday night. Need I say more?
Straight up: Green Bay
Against the Spread: Green Bay
FYI - I will keep track of how many times I am disconnected through the proceedings, starting with the time it just happened [one].
The Match-up: Oakland (+6.0) @ Washington
The Skinny: The Skins are the latest team to fall victim of a coach growing stones at the end of the game when Jon Gruden went for two and the win at the gun last week. Oakland fell victim to Dick Vermeil's last-second touchdown call the week before. The two meet this week, and somebody will leave FedEx Field pissed off again.
Straight up: Washington
Against the Spread: Washington
The Match-up: Miami (+2.5) @ Cleveland
The Skinny: Don't think I've picked the Browns yet this year, and I see no reason to start now. Straight up: Miami
Against the Spread: Miami
The Match-up: Pittsburgh (off) @ Baltimore
The Skinny: Tommy Maddox vs. Kyle Boller isn't exactly good theatre.
Straight up: Pittsburgh
Against the Spread: Pittsburgh
The Match-up: Detroit (+8.0) @ Dallas
The Skinny: Dallas sucks, have I mentioned that before? Just making sure I cover all my bases.
Straight up: Detroit
Against the Spread: Detroit
The Match-up: Jacksonville (-4.0) @ Tennessee
The Skinny: Other than Indianapolis at home, the Jags have a virtual cake walk to the post-season.
Straight up: Jacksonville
Against the Spread: Jacksonville
[two]
The Match-up: Arizona (+9.5) @ St. Louis
The Skinny: The Rams are starting to regain their health and round back into form.
Straight up: St. Louis
Against the Spread: St. Louis
The Match-up: New Orleans (+9.5) @ New England
The Skinny: Notice no one is talking about the Pats three-peating any more.
Straight up: New England
Against the Spread: New England
The Match-up: Philadelphia (+7.0) @ New York Giants
The Skinny: Mike McMahon to Billy McMullen for the game-winning touchdown in the fourth quarter. Hey, it could happen.
Straight up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia
The Match-up: Tampa Bay (+6.0) @ Atlanta
The Skinny: Chris Simms may have come of age last week against Washington. Down by seven twice late, he rallied the troops to the aforementioned last-second two point conversion victory. But in Atlanta is a tough go, even though the Bucs have given Ron Mexico fits in the past.
Straight up: Atlanta
Against the Spread: Atlanta
The Match-up: Carolina (-3.0) @ Chicago
The Skinny: At 7-2, the best team in the NFC right now resides in Charlotte.
Straight up: Carolina
Against the Spread: Carolina
[three]
The Match-up: Seattle (-12.5) @ San Francisco
The Skinny: Shaun Alexander is a stud - five straight years of 15+ touchdowns? Unheard of.
Straight up: Seattle
Against the Spread: Seattle
The Match-up: New York Jets (+13.0) @ Denver
The Skinny: 13 points is just too many to give the Jets, even on the road.
Straight up: Denver
Against the Spread: New York Jets
The Match-up: Buffalo (+11.0) @ San Diego
The Skinny: Bills fans should not get too excited about the showing of J.P. Losman last week. I mean, it's not like he's Jim Kelly or anything.
Straight up: San Diego
Against the Spread: San Diego
[four - this is getting ridiculous]
The Match-up: Indianapolis (-6.0) @ Cincinatti
The Skinny: In the game of the week, I like the Colts to get to 10-0, but not without a fight from the Bengals.
Straight up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Cincinnati
[five - what the chicken?]
The Match-up: Kansas City (-7.0) @ Houston
The Skinny: The Chiefs should not miss a beat without Priest Holmes, as long as Larry Johnson keeps running the way he has.
Straight up: Kansas City
Against the Spread: Kansas City
The Match-up: Minnesota (+4.5) @ Green Bay
The Skinny: Brett Favre, Lambeau Field, Monday night. Need I say more?
Straight up: Green Bay
Against the Spread: Green Bay
Friday, November 11, 2005
The Week 10 Picks
I’m a little disappointed about the whole Terrell Owens situation. My loyal readers (both of you) know I’ve been a supporter of Owens as recently as two weeks ago in this space, but this entire ordeal has really showed me the guy’s true colors. The sad thing is, this all started last December when Owens broke his leg and Donovan McNabb said in a press conference that he still thought the Eagles could win without him. T.O. took that as a personal slight, and the relationship deteriorated from there.
A couple of points that should be made:
a) What exactly was Owens expecting McNabb to say? “T.O. is hurt, so we might as well shut it down for the season.”
b) Owens claims he came back to play in the Super Bowl for the team, but its apparent that he did it for himself, as evidenced by the fact that he used that as a negotiating ploy to try and get more money.
c) T.O. claims he’s not being selfish, but everything he pulled was done with the intent of milking more money out of the Eagles. He personifies selfishness.
All of these actions virtually guarantee that Owens will never get the big money he so covets, from the Eagles or any other team. Not only is he selfish, he’s also ignorant, misguided, and not very bright. Oh, and his agent is a weasel (next question, next question, next question…what a spineless coward). Owens is the ultimate ‘Me’ player in the ultimate team sport.
But the guy can ball.
In his year and a half as an Eagle, Owens averaged almost 100 yards and a touchdown per game. So while the popular line is that the Eagles will be better off without him, I guess I’m torn. In the clubhouse, yes, they’re probably better off. But on the field, it will be tough to account for an extra seven points per game. Especially when a 4-4 record is bringing up the rear in the suddenly-stacked NFC East, and there are teams like Carolina, Atlanta, Tampa Bay and Chicago that the Eagles would have to leap frog to make the playoffs.
It could be a long, cold winter in Philly.
The Match-up: Kansas City (+2.5) @ Buffalo
The Skinny: Props to Kansas City head coach Dick Vermeil for his decision to go for the touchdown from the one yard line while down three with five seconds to go and no timeouts in last week’s game against Oakland. Don’t get me wrong, I’m pissed because I had KC -4.5 and was hoping for OT. The football Gods will get me back this week.
Straight up: Buffalo
Against the Spread: Buffalo
The Match-up: San Francisco (+13.0) @ Chicago
The Skinny: Even if Thomas Jones sits out with bruised ribs, I like the Bears to win. But Frisco plays with some tenacity, and I like that.
Straight up: Chicago
Against the Spread: San Francisco
The Match-up: Baltimore (+6.5) @ Jacksonville
The Skinny: Kyle Boller is back under center for the Ravens, but unless he had a transplant and became Johnny Unitas, it won’t make a difference in Jacksonville.
Straight up: Jacksonville
Against the Spread: Jacksonville
The Match-up: Arizona (+4.0) @ Detroit
The Skinny: Two quarterback controversies, four marginal quarterbacks, one crappy game.
Straight up: Detroit
Against the Spread: Detroit
The Match-up: Houston (+18.0) @ Indianapolis
The Skinny: Classic trap game for the NFL’s only remaining unbeaten team. The Colts finally got that gorilla off their back on Monday, and I could see them sleepwalking through the first half on Sunday. That could keep Houston in cover range.
Straight up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Houston
The Match-up: New England (-3.0) @ Miami
The Skinny: While last year’s NFC champion Eagles are 4-4 and struggling to make the playoffs, the equally 4-4 Patriots are still in first place in their division. So much for the AFC being the dominant conference.
Straight up: New England
Against the Spread: New England
The Match-up: Minnesota (+9.5) @ New York Giants
The Skinny: Anybody know the pre-season odds on the Giants to win the NFC? Not nearly as good as Minnesota’s, I’m sure. A gimpy quarterback, a drugged-up running back, and a sex cruise can do that to a team.
Straight up: New York Giants
Against the Spread: New York Giants
The Match-up: New York Jets (+9.0) @ Carolina
The Skinny: During their recent five-game winning streak, the Panthers have resembled the contender everyone predicted them to be. And, their cheerleaders know how to party.
Straight up: Carolina
Against the Spread: New York Jets
The Match-up: Denver (-3.0) @ Oakland
The Skinny: Still waiting for Jake Plummer to turn into, well, Jake Plummer. I mean, everybody else on my fantasy team has thrown it in the tank, why not “The Snake?”
Straight up: Denver
Against the Spread: Denver
The Match-up: St. Louis (+7.0) @ Seattle
The Skinny: This one’s for the division, so you can bet it will be close. Isaac Bruce and Torry Holt are both expected back for the Rams, thus I feel they’re going to be in the ball game. But Shaun Alexander and the ‘Hawks are money at home.
Straight up: Seattle
Against the Spread: St. Louis
The Match-up: Green Bay (+9.0) @ Atlanta
The Skinny: Anybody remember which team drafted Brett Favre out of Southern Miss in 1991? The answer is my pick in this game.
Straight up: Atlanta
Against the Spread: Atlanta
The Match-up: Washington (-1.5) @ Tampa Bay
The Skinny: If anyone but Mark Brunell wins the NFL’s comeback player of the year award, I’m calling for a formal investigation.
Straight up: Washington
Against the Spread: Washington
The Match-up: Cleveland (+8.0) @ Pittsburgh
The Skinny: Ben Roethlisberger is still on the shelf for the Steelers, but Willie Parker will play. The combination of Parker and Duce Staley should be enough to get it done at home for the ‘burgh.
Straight up: Pittsburgh
Against the Spread: Pittsburgh
The Match-up: Dallas (+3.0) @ Philadelphia
The Skinny: Next question.
Straight up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia
A couple of points that should be made:
a) What exactly was Owens expecting McNabb to say? “T.O. is hurt, so we might as well shut it down for the season.”
b) Owens claims he came back to play in the Super Bowl for the team, but its apparent that he did it for himself, as evidenced by the fact that he used that as a negotiating ploy to try and get more money.
c) T.O. claims he’s not being selfish, but everything he pulled was done with the intent of milking more money out of the Eagles. He personifies selfishness.
All of these actions virtually guarantee that Owens will never get the big money he so covets, from the Eagles or any other team. Not only is he selfish, he’s also ignorant, misguided, and not very bright. Oh, and his agent is a weasel (next question, next question, next question…what a spineless coward). Owens is the ultimate ‘Me’ player in the ultimate team sport.
But the guy can ball.
In his year and a half as an Eagle, Owens averaged almost 100 yards and a touchdown per game. So while the popular line is that the Eagles will be better off without him, I guess I’m torn. In the clubhouse, yes, they’re probably better off. But on the field, it will be tough to account for an extra seven points per game. Especially when a 4-4 record is bringing up the rear in the suddenly-stacked NFC East, and there are teams like Carolina, Atlanta, Tampa Bay and Chicago that the Eagles would have to leap frog to make the playoffs.
It could be a long, cold winter in Philly.
The Match-up: Kansas City (+2.5) @ Buffalo
The Skinny: Props to Kansas City head coach Dick Vermeil for his decision to go for the touchdown from the one yard line while down three with five seconds to go and no timeouts in last week’s game against Oakland. Don’t get me wrong, I’m pissed because I had KC -4.5 and was hoping for OT. The football Gods will get me back this week.
Straight up: Buffalo
Against the Spread: Buffalo
The Match-up: San Francisco (+13.0) @ Chicago
The Skinny: Even if Thomas Jones sits out with bruised ribs, I like the Bears to win. But Frisco plays with some tenacity, and I like that.
Straight up: Chicago
Against the Spread: San Francisco
The Match-up: Baltimore (+6.5) @ Jacksonville
The Skinny: Kyle Boller is back under center for the Ravens, but unless he had a transplant and became Johnny Unitas, it won’t make a difference in Jacksonville.
Straight up: Jacksonville
Against the Spread: Jacksonville
The Match-up: Arizona (+4.0) @ Detroit
The Skinny: Two quarterback controversies, four marginal quarterbacks, one crappy game.
Straight up: Detroit
Against the Spread: Detroit
The Match-up: Houston (+18.0) @ Indianapolis
The Skinny: Classic trap game for the NFL’s only remaining unbeaten team. The Colts finally got that gorilla off their back on Monday, and I could see them sleepwalking through the first half on Sunday. That could keep Houston in cover range.
Straight up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Houston
The Match-up: New England (-3.0) @ Miami
The Skinny: While last year’s NFC champion Eagles are 4-4 and struggling to make the playoffs, the equally 4-4 Patriots are still in first place in their division. So much for the AFC being the dominant conference.
Straight up: New England
Against the Spread: New England
The Match-up: Minnesota (+9.5) @ New York Giants
The Skinny: Anybody know the pre-season odds on the Giants to win the NFC? Not nearly as good as Minnesota’s, I’m sure. A gimpy quarterback, a drugged-up running back, and a sex cruise can do that to a team.
Straight up: New York Giants
Against the Spread: New York Giants
The Match-up: New York Jets (+9.0) @ Carolina
The Skinny: During their recent five-game winning streak, the Panthers have resembled the contender everyone predicted them to be. And, their cheerleaders know how to party.
Straight up: Carolina
Against the Spread: New York Jets
The Match-up: Denver (-3.0) @ Oakland
The Skinny: Still waiting for Jake Plummer to turn into, well, Jake Plummer. I mean, everybody else on my fantasy team has thrown it in the tank, why not “The Snake?”
Straight up: Denver
Against the Spread: Denver
The Match-up: St. Louis (+7.0) @ Seattle
The Skinny: This one’s for the division, so you can bet it will be close. Isaac Bruce and Torry Holt are both expected back for the Rams, thus I feel they’re going to be in the ball game. But Shaun Alexander and the ‘Hawks are money at home.
Straight up: Seattle
Against the Spread: St. Louis
The Match-up: Green Bay (+9.0) @ Atlanta
The Skinny: Anybody remember which team drafted Brett Favre out of Southern Miss in 1991? The answer is my pick in this game.
Straight up: Atlanta
Against the Spread: Atlanta
The Match-up: Washington (-1.5) @ Tampa Bay
The Skinny: If anyone but Mark Brunell wins the NFL’s comeback player of the year award, I’m calling for a formal investigation.
Straight up: Washington
Against the Spread: Washington
The Match-up: Cleveland (+8.0) @ Pittsburgh
The Skinny: Ben Roethlisberger is still on the shelf for the Steelers, but Willie Parker will play. The combination of Parker and Duce Staley should be enough to get it done at home for the ‘burgh.
Straight up: Pittsburgh
Against the Spread: Pittsburgh
The Match-up: Dallas (+3.0) @ Philadelphia
The Skinny: Next question.
Straight up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia
Thursday, November 03, 2005
Making the Turn - The Week 9 Picks
It’s that time of the year. This week marks the halfway point of the season, and there’s no time like the present to re-visit some of my pre-season predictions and see how they’re looking now. To recap:
Division Winner Then Now
AFC East New England New England
AFC North Baltimore (oops) Pittsburgh
AFC South Indianapolis Indianapolis
AFC West San Diego Denver
Wild Cards Buffalo, Pittsburgh Jacksonville, San Diego
NFC East Philadelphia Philadelphia
NFC North Minnesota (my bad) Chicago
NFC South Carolina Carolina
NFC West St. Louis St. Louis
Wild Cards Atlanta, Dallas Atlanta, New York Giants
Super Bowl Philadelphia over Indianapolis (I’ll stand by that)
Other than the aforementioned, my biggest pre-season busts were my offensive rookie of the year (Did I say J.J. Arrington? I meant Heath Miller. No, seriously, I did.) and my sleeper team (which I almost nailed with the Bears before I got cold feet and switched to Buffalo). The lesson here? Trust your instincts.
As for the individual scorecard, records of 75-41 (.647) straight up and 59-54-3 (.522) against the spread are comparable to last year’s marks. But we strive for constant improvement around here, so its time to buckle down.
Here’s to a strong second half!
The Match-up: Cincinnati (-3.0) @ Baltimore
The Skinny: I figured one of these teams would be in the hunt in the AFC and the other would be a middle-of-the-road club. So I guess I was right…and wrong.
Straight up: Cincinnati
Against the Spread: Cincinnati
The Match-up: Atlanta (-2.5) @ Miami
The Skinny: Miami is one of those teams that gives me fits. Just when I think I’ve got them figured out, they burn me.
Straight up: Atlanta
Against the Spread: Atlanta
The Match-up: Detroit (0.0) @ Minnesota
The Skinny: Now that Daunte Culpepper’s season is over, the Vikings season is about to go down like a sinking ship, no pun intended. Alright, maybe it was intended.
Straight up: Detroit
Against the Spread: Detroit
The Match-up: San Diego (-6.5) @ New York Jets
The Skinny: The Jets tend to play pretty well at home, but the Chargers may be the best 4-4 team in the history of the league.
Straight up: San Diego
Against the Spread: New York Jets
The Match-up: Carolina (-1.5) @ Tampa Bay
The Skinny: The battle for first place in the NFC South takes place when the Panthers visit the Bucs, with Tampa listed as the underdog. Call it the “Chris Simms Factor.”
Straight up: Carolina
Against the Spread: Carolina
The Match-up: Tennessee (+3.0) @ Cleveland
The Skinny: Earlier I mentioned something about trusting your instincts. Well, for some reason I have a feeling the Titans will pull a mild upset in the dog pound.
Straight up: Tennessee
Against the Spread: Tennessee
The Match-up: Houston (+13.5) @ Jacksonville
The Skinny: Jacksonville doesn’t score enough to justify the high spread. It is almost time for the Texans to start thinking about whether they will take Matt Leinart or Reggie Bush with the #1 pick next April.
Straight up: Jacksonville
Against the Spread: Houston
The Match-up: Oakland (+4.5) @ Kansas City
The Skinny: KC owns Oakland at Arrowhead.
Straight up: Kansas City
Against the Spread: Kansas City
The Match-up: Chicago (-3.0) @ New Orleans
The Skinny: Last week’s OT thriller just about clinched the NFC North for the 4-3 Bears. I wish I was kidding, but I’m not.
Straight up: Chicago
Against the Spread: Chicago
The Match-up: Seattle (-4.0) @ Arizona
The Skinny: Seattle is typically not a good road team. Arizona is just not a good team.
Straight up: Seattle
Against the Spread: Seattle
The Match-up: New York Giants (-11.0) @ San Francisco
The Skinny: Each week, the Giants are looking more and more like a legitimate contender in the NFC. As for San Francisco, Cody Pickett will start at QB this week. What, were Steve Bono and Jim Druckenmiller unavailable?
Straight up: New York Giants
Against the Spread: New York Giants
The Match-up: Pittsburgh (-3.5) @ Green Bay
The Skinny: How bad are the Packers? Not only are they an underdog at Lambeau (which happens roughly once every 5 years), but they’re an underdog against a team led by Charlie Batch.
Straight up: Pittsburgh
Against the Spread: Pittsburgh
The Match-up: Philadelphia (+3.0) @ Washington
The Skinny: The next three weeks will determine a lot about the hierarchy in the NFC East – Philly visits Washington, hosts Dallas (they suck, by the way), and travels to The Meadowlands to take on the Giants. If the birds are going to win the division, they’ll need to take at least two of the next three, perhaps without T.O. Difficult, but not impossible.
Straight up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia
The Match-up: Indianapolis (-3.0) @ New England
The Skinny: Do the Colts FINALLY have New England’s number? They’ve been in this spot before (i.e., favored in Foxboro) and flopped. Will this one be any different? In a word, yes.
Straight up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Indianapolis
Division Winner Then Now
AFC East New England New England
AFC North Baltimore (oops) Pittsburgh
AFC South Indianapolis Indianapolis
AFC West San Diego Denver
Wild Cards Buffalo, Pittsburgh Jacksonville, San Diego
NFC East Philadelphia Philadelphia
NFC North Minnesota (my bad) Chicago
NFC South Carolina Carolina
NFC West St. Louis St. Louis
Wild Cards Atlanta, Dallas Atlanta, New York Giants
Super Bowl Philadelphia over Indianapolis (I’ll stand by that)
Other than the aforementioned, my biggest pre-season busts were my offensive rookie of the year (Did I say J.J. Arrington? I meant Heath Miller. No, seriously, I did.) and my sleeper team (which I almost nailed with the Bears before I got cold feet and switched to Buffalo). The lesson here? Trust your instincts.
As for the individual scorecard, records of 75-41 (.647) straight up and 59-54-3 (.522) against the spread are comparable to last year’s marks. But we strive for constant improvement around here, so its time to buckle down.
Here’s to a strong second half!
The Match-up: Cincinnati (-3.0) @ Baltimore
The Skinny: I figured one of these teams would be in the hunt in the AFC and the other would be a middle-of-the-road club. So I guess I was right…and wrong.
Straight up: Cincinnati
Against the Spread: Cincinnati
The Match-up: Atlanta (-2.5) @ Miami
The Skinny: Miami is one of those teams that gives me fits. Just when I think I’ve got them figured out, they burn me.
Straight up: Atlanta
Against the Spread: Atlanta
The Match-up: Detroit (0.0) @ Minnesota
The Skinny: Now that Daunte Culpepper’s season is over, the Vikings season is about to go down like a sinking ship, no pun intended. Alright, maybe it was intended.
Straight up: Detroit
Against the Spread: Detroit
The Match-up: San Diego (-6.5) @ New York Jets
The Skinny: The Jets tend to play pretty well at home, but the Chargers may be the best 4-4 team in the history of the league.
Straight up: San Diego
Against the Spread: New York Jets
The Match-up: Carolina (-1.5) @ Tampa Bay
The Skinny: The battle for first place in the NFC South takes place when the Panthers visit the Bucs, with Tampa listed as the underdog. Call it the “Chris Simms Factor.”
Straight up: Carolina
Against the Spread: Carolina
The Match-up: Tennessee (+3.0) @ Cleveland
The Skinny: Earlier I mentioned something about trusting your instincts. Well, for some reason I have a feeling the Titans will pull a mild upset in the dog pound.
Straight up: Tennessee
Against the Spread: Tennessee
The Match-up: Houston (+13.5) @ Jacksonville
The Skinny: Jacksonville doesn’t score enough to justify the high spread. It is almost time for the Texans to start thinking about whether they will take Matt Leinart or Reggie Bush with the #1 pick next April.
Straight up: Jacksonville
Against the Spread: Houston
The Match-up: Oakland (+4.5) @ Kansas City
The Skinny: KC owns Oakland at Arrowhead.
Straight up: Kansas City
Against the Spread: Kansas City
The Match-up: Chicago (-3.0) @ New Orleans
The Skinny: Last week’s OT thriller just about clinched the NFC North for the 4-3 Bears. I wish I was kidding, but I’m not.
Straight up: Chicago
Against the Spread: Chicago
The Match-up: Seattle (-4.0) @ Arizona
The Skinny: Seattle is typically not a good road team. Arizona is just not a good team.
Straight up: Seattle
Against the Spread: Seattle
The Match-up: New York Giants (-11.0) @ San Francisco
The Skinny: Each week, the Giants are looking more and more like a legitimate contender in the NFC. As for San Francisco, Cody Pickett will start at QB this week. What, were Steve Bono and Jim Druckenmiller unavailable?
Straight up: New York Giants
Against the Spread: New York Giants
The Match-up: Pittsburgh (-3.5) @ Green Bay
The Skinny: How bad are the Packers? Not only are they an underdog at Lambeau (which happens roughly once every 5 years), but they’re an underdog against a team led by Charlie Batch.
Straight up: Pittsburgh
Against the Spread: Pittsburgh
The Match-up: Philadelphia (+3.0) @ Washington
The Skinny: The next three weeks will determine a lot about the hierarchy in the NFC East – Philly visits Washington, hosts Dallas (they suck, by the way), and travels to The Meadowlands to take on the Giants. If the birds are going to win the division, they’ll need to take at least two of the next three, perhaps without T.O. Difficult, but not impossible.
Straight up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia
The Match-up: Indianapolis (-3.0) @ New England
The Skinny: Do the Colts FINALLY have New England’s number? They’ve been in this spot before (i.e., favored in Foxboro) and flopped. Will this one be any different? In a word, yes.
Straight up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Indianapolis
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