Turkey Day Leftovers - The Rest of the Week 12 Picks

What a great Thanksgiving. Not only did I feast on an outstanding dinner, but the dessert was extra sweet since those bastards from Dallas lost (I'm thankful for Ron Dayne and Jason Elam). And, by winning both games yesterday, I have already matched last week's win total of 2. Sad, I know, but there's only one way to go once you've hit rock bottom. One of the best parts about Thanksgiving is eating a cold turkey sandwich made from the leftovers from the night before. Along the same lines, these are the games left on the Week 12 slate.

The Match-up: St. Louis (-4.0) @ Houston
The Skinny: Houston has played statistically the toughest schedule in the league this year. Yeah, that's what their problem is.
Straight up: St. Louis
Against the Spread: St. Louis

The Match-up: New England (+3.0) @ Kansas City
The Skinny: The Pats may have to sign me to play corner if they lose one more player.
Straight up: Kansas City
Against the Spread: Kansas City

The Match-up: Cleveland (+4.5) @ Minnesota
The Skinny: Nice rally by the Vikings. Probably too little too late with the Bears surging as they are, but still they've showed a lot of character (yes, this is the same team that took a sex cruise on their bye week, so maybe character isn't the right word).
Straight up: Minnesota
Against the Spread: Minnesota

The Match-up: Carolina (-4.0) @ Buffalo
The Skinny: Warm-weathered Carolina favored in Buffalo tells me a lot.
Straight up: Carolina
Against the Spread: Carolina

The Match-up: Chicago (+3.0) @ Tampa Bay
The Skinny: Sure, I'll take the Bears defense plus some points against young Chris Simms.
Straight up: Chicago
Against the Spread: Chicago

The Match-up: Baltimore (+9.0) @ Cincinnati
The Skinny: Memo to Chad Johnson - look at what happened with T.O. and re-think that hold out you're planning during the off-season.
Straight up: Cincinnati
Against the Spread: Cincinnati

The Match-up: San Diego (-3.0) @ Washington
The Skinny: Both teams are in playoff contention, and a win Sunday would go a long way.
Straight up: San Diego
aging the Spread: San Diego

The Match-up: San Francisco (+7.5) @ Tennessee
The Skinny: It's all about draft positioning between these two fallen powers.
Straight up: Tennessee
Against the Spread: San Francisco

The Match-up: Miami (+7.0) @ Oakland
The Skinny: That's right, I'm wagering on Sage Rosenfels on the road in November. As the saying goes, do as I say, not as I do.
Straight up: Oakland
Against the Spread: Miami

The Match-up: Jacksonville (-3.0) @ Arizona
The Skinny: Nice showing by Kurt Warner last week, but Jacksonville's defense will provide a litmus test as to whether or not Warner is officially back.
Straight up: Jacksonville
Against the Spread: Jacksonville

The Match-up: Green Bay (+4.5) @ Philadelphia
The Skinny: You heard it here first - the Eagles will win out, finish 10-6 and sneak into the playoffs.
Straight up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia

The Match-up: New York Giants (+4.5) @ Seattle
The Skinny: Did you know that the Seahawks have the best record in the NFC? The Seahawks? Unbelievable.
Straight up: Seattle
Against the Spread: Seattle

The Match-up: New Orleans (-1.5) @ New York Jets
The Skinny: At least the Jets play a little defense.
Straight up: New York Jets
Against the Spread: New York Jets

The Match-up: Pittsburgh (+7.5) @ Indianapolis
The Skinny: I wanted to take Pittsburgh, I really did. But in Indy, I just couldn't pull the trigger.
Straight up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Indianapolis

The Thanksgiving Day Deuce

Thanksgiving is hands down my favorite holiday of the year. Why? Because I get to sit around, watch football, eat until I feel the need to undo the button on my pants, and fall asleep in the recliner. My wife would tell you that's no different from how I spend every weekend. Touche.

Anyway, my Thanksgiving ritual is basically as follows:

1) Wake up and eat an enormous breakfast of eggs, bacon, and cinnamon buns.
2) Camp out in front of the TV to watch part of the Thanksgiving Day Parade (only because it is hosted by charter "List of Five" member Kelly Ripa.
3) Watch football (root for whomever is playing against Dallas).
4) Gorge myself on turkey, mashed potatoes, stuffing, corn, bread, and gravy.
5) Watch more football as the Triptophan kicks in and gently nod off.
6) Wake up just in time for dessert.

Time to add a new feature to the ritual - share with you, my loyal readers, the Turkey Day picks (the remaining games for the weekend will follow in a later post). Enjoy, and Happy Thanksgiving to you and yours.

The Match-up: Atlanta (-3.0) @ Detroit
The Skinny: I don't think either team should be making plans to return to Ford Field in February, but I do like Ron Mexico to shine on a national stage, a la Randy Moss against the Cowgirls a few years back.
Straight up: Atlanta
Against the Spread: Atlanta

The Match-up: Denver (-2.0) @ Dallas
The Skinny: The Broncos are playing some good football right now. And what would Thanksgiving be if I didn't go against the Cowboys?
Straight up: Denver
Against the Spread: Denver

The Week 11 Picks

It's a true road game this weekend, as the picks are coming to you live from the former home front in the Philly 'burbs. I'm also working on a dial up connection, so the picks will be brief in nature (so as not to get cut off by an incoming call). I won't even bombard you with any T.O. commentary - at least not for another week or so.

FYI - I will keep track of how many times I am disconnected through the proceedings, starting with the time it just happened [one].

The Match-up: Oakland (+6.0) @ Washington
The Skinny: The Skins are the latest team to fall victim of a coach growing stones at the end of the game when Jon Gruden went for two and the win at the gun last week. Oakland fell victim to Dick Vermeil's last-second touchdown call the week before. The two meet this week, and somebody will leave FedEx Field pissed off again.
Straight up: Washington
Against the Spread: Washington

The Match-up: Miami (+2.5) @ Cleveland
The Skinny: Don't think I've picked the Browns yet this year, and I see no reason to start now. Straight up: Miami
Against the Spread: Miami

The Match-up: Pittsburgh (off) @ Baltimore
The Skinny: Tommy Maddox vs. Kyle Boller isn't exactly good theatre.
Straight up: Pittsburgh
Against the Spread: Pittsburgh

The Match-up: Detroit (+8.0) @ Dallas
The Skinny: Dallas sucks, have I mentioned that before? Just making sure I cover all my bases.
Straight up: Detroit
Against the Spread: Detroit

The Match-up: Jacksonville (-4.0) @ Tennessee
The Skinny: Other than Indianapolis at home, the Jags have a virtual cake walk to the post-season.
Straight up: Jacksonville
Against the Spread: Jacksonville

[two]

The Match-up: Arizona (+9.5) @ St. Louis
The Skinny: The Rams are starting to regain their health and round back into form.
Straight up: St. Louis
Against the Spread: St. Louis

The Match-up: New Orleans (+9.5) @ New England
The Skinny: Notice no one is talking about the Pats three-peating any more.
Straight up: New England
Against the Spread: New England

The Match-up: Philadelphia (+7.0) @ New York Giants
The Skinny: Mike McMahon to Billy McMullen for the game-winning touchdown in the fourth quarter. Hey, it could happen.
Straight up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia

The Match-up: Tampa Bay (+6.0) @ Atlanta
The Skinny: Chris Simms may have come of age last week against Washington. Down by seven twice late, he rallied the troops to the aforementioned last-second two point conversion victory. But in Atlanta is a tough go, even though the Bucs have given Ron Mexico fits in the past.
Straight up: Atlanta
Against the Spread: Atlanta

The Match-up: Carolina (-3.0) @ Chicago
The Skinny: At 7-2, the best team in the NFC right now resides in Charlotte.
Straight up: Carolina
Against the Spread: Carolina

[three]

The Match-up: Seattle (-12.5) @ San Francisco
The Skinny: Shaun Alexander is a stud - five straight years of 15+ touchdowns? Unheard of.
Straight up: Seattle
Against the Spread: Seattle

The Match-up: New York Jets (+13.0) @ Denver
The Skinny: 13 points is just too many to give the Jets, even on the road.
Straight up: Denver
Against the Spread: New York Jets

The Match-up: Buffalo (+11.0) @ San Diego
The Skinny: Bills fans should not get too excited about the showing of J.P. Losman last week. I mean, it's not like he's Jim Kelly or anything.
Straight up: San Diego
Against the Spread: San Diego

[four - this is getting ridiculous]

The Match-up: Indianapolis (-6.0) @ Cincinatti
The Skinny: In the game of the week, I like the Colts to get to 10-0, but not without a fight from the Bengals.
Straight up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Cincinnati

[five - what the chicken?]

The Match-up: Kansas City (-7.0) @ Houston
The Skinny: The Chiefs should not miss a beat without Priest Holmes, as long as Larry Johnson keeps running the way he has.
Straight up: Kansas City
Against the Spread: Kansas City

The Match-up: Minnesota (+4.5) @ Green Bay
The Skinny: Brett Favre, Lambeau Field, Monday night. Need I say more?
Straight up: Green Bay
Against the Spread: Green Bay

The Week 10 Picks

I’m a little disappointed about the whole Terrell Owens situation. My loyal readers (both of you) know I’ve been a supporter of Owens as recently as two weeks ago in this space, but this entire ordeal has really showed me the guy’s true colors. The sad thing is, this all started last December when Owens broke his leg and Donovan McNabb said in a press conference that he still thought the Eagles could win without him. T.O. took that as a personal slight, and the relationship deteriorated from there.

A couple of points that should be made:

a) What exactly was Owens expecting McNabb to say? “T.O. is hurt, so we might as well shut it down for the season.”
b) Owens claims he came back to play in the Super Bowl for the team, but its apparent that he did it for himself, as evidenced by the fact that he used that as a negotiating ploy to try and get more money.
c) T.O. claims he’s not being selfish, but everything he pulled was done with the intent of milking more money out of the Eagles. He personifies selfishness.

All of these actions virtually guarantee that Owens will never get the big money he so covets, from the Eagles or any other team. Not only is he selfish, he’s also ignorant, misguided, and not very bright. Oh, and his agent is a weasel (next question, next question, next question…what a spineless coward). Owens is the ultimate ‘Me’ player in the ultimate team sport.

But the guy can ball.

In his year and a half as an Eagle, Owens averaged almost 100 yards and a touchdown per game. So while the popular line is that the Eagles will be better off without him, I guess I’m torn. In the clubhouse, yes, they’re probably better off. But on the field, it will be tough to account for an extra seven points per game. Especially when a 4-4 record is bringing up the rear in the suddenly-stacked NFC East, and there are teams like Carolina, Atlanta, Tampa Bay and Chicago that the Eagles would have to leap frog to make the playoffs.

It could be a long, cold winter in Philly.

The Match-up: Kansas City (+2.5) @ Buffalo
The Skinny: Props to Kansas City head coach Dick Vermeil for his decision to go for the touchdown from the one yard line while down three with five seconds to go and no timeouts in last week’s game against Oakland. Don’t get me wrong, I’m pissed because I had KC -4.5 and was hoping for OT. The football Gods will get me back this week.
Straight up: Buffalo
Against the Spread: Buffalo

The Match-up: San Francisco (+13.0) @ Chicago
The Skinny: Even if Thomas Jones sits out with bruised ribs, I like the Bears to win. But Frisco plays with some tenacity, and I like that.
Straight up: Chicago
Against the Spread: San Francisco

The Match-up: Baltimore (+6.5) @ Jacksonville
The Skinny: Kyle Boller is back under center for the Ravens, but unless he had a transplant and became Johnny Unitas, it won’t make a difference in Jacksonville.
Straight up: Jacksonville
Against the Spread: Jacksonville

The Match-up: Arizona (+4.0) @ Detroit
The Skinny: Two quarterback controversies, four marginal quarterbacks, one crappy game.
Straight up: Detroit
Against the Spread: Detroit

The Match-up: Houston (+18.0) @ Indianapolis
The Skinny: Classic trap game for the NFL’s only remaining unbeaten team. The Colts finally got that gorilla off their back on Monday, and I could see them sleepwalking through the first half on Sunday. That could keep Houston in cover range.
Straight up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Houston

The Match-up: New England (-3.0) @ Miami
The Skinny: While last year’s NFC champion Eagles are 4-4 and struggling to make the playoffs, the equally 4-4 Patriots are still in first place in their division. So much for the AFC being the dominant conference.
Straight up: New England
Against the Spread: New England

The Match-up: Minnesota (+9.5) @ New York Giants
The Skinny: Anybody know the pre-season odds on the Giants to win the NFC? Not nearly as good as Minnesota’s, I’m sure. A gimpy quarterback, a drugged-up running back, and a sex cruise can do that to a team.
Straight up: New York Giants
Against the Spread: New York Giants

The Match-up: New York Jets (+9.0) @ Carolina
The Skinny: During their recent five-game winning streak, the Panthers have resembled the contender everyone predicted them to be. And, their cheerleaders know how to party.
Straight up: Carolina
Against the Spread: New York Jets

The Match-up: Denver (-3.0) @ Oakland
The Skinny: Still waiting for Jake Plummer to turn into, well, Jake Plummer. I mean, everybody else on my fantasy team has thrown it in the tank, why not “The Snake?”
Straight up: Denver
Against the Spread: Denver

The Match-up: St. Louis (+7.0) @ Seattle
The Skinny: This one’s for the division, so you can bet it will be close. Isaac Bruce and Torry Holt are both expected back for the Rams, thus I feel they’re going to be in the ball game. But Shaun Alexander and the ‘Hawks are money at home.
Straight up: Seattle
Against the Spread: St. Louis

The Match-up: Green Bay (+9.0) @ Atlanta
The Skinny: Anybody remember which team drafted Brett Favre out of Southern Miss in 1991? The answer is my pick in this game.
Straight up: Atlanta
Against the Spread: Atlanta

The Match-up: Washington (-1.5) @ Tampa Bay
The Skinny: If anyone but Mark Brunell wins the NFL’s comeback player of the year award, I’m calling for a formal investigation.
Straight up: Washington
Against the Spread: Washington

The Match-up: Cleveland (+8.0) @ Pittsburgh
The Skinny: Ben Roethlisberger is still on the shelf for the Steelers, but Willie Parker will play. The combination of Parker and Duce Staley should be enough to get it done at home for the ‘burgh.
Straight up: Pittsburgh
Against the Spread: Pittsburgh

The Match-up: Dallas (+3.0) @ Philadelphia
The Skinny: Next question.
Straight up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia

Making the Turn - The Week 9 Picks

It’s that time of the year. This week marks the halfway point of the season, and there’s no time like the present to re-visit some of my pre-season predictions and see how they’re looking now. To recap:

Division Winner Then Now
AFC East New England New England
AFC North Baltimore (oops) Pittsburgh
AFC South Indianapolis Indianapolis
AFC West San Diego Denver
Wild Cards Buffalo, Pittsburgh Jacksonville, San Diego

NFC East Philadelphia Philadelphia
NFC North Minnesota (my bad) Chicago
NFC South Carolina Carolina
NFC West St. Louis St. Louis
Wild Cards Atlanta, Dallas Atlanta, New York Giants

Super Bowl Philadelphia over Indianapolis (I’ll stand by that)

Other than the aforementioned, my biggest pre-season busts were my offensive rookie of the year (Did I say J.J. Arrington? I meant Heath Miller. No, seriously, I did.) and my sleeper team (which I almost nailed with the Bears before I got cold feet and switched to Buffalo). The lesson here? Trust your instincts.

As for the individual scorecard, records of 75-41 (.647) straight up and 59-54-3 (.522) against the spread are comparable to last year’s marks. But we strive for constant improvement around here, so its time to buckle down.

Here’s to a strong second half!

The Match-up: Cincinnati (-3.0) @ Baltimore
The Skinny: I figured one of these teams would be in the hunt in the AFC and the other would be a middle-of-the-road club. So I guess I was right…and wrong.
Straight up: Cincinnati
Against the Spread: Cincinnati

The Match-up: Atlanta (-2.5) @ Miami
The Skinny: Miami is one of those teams that gives me fits. Just when I think I’ve got them figured out, they burn me.
Straight up: Atlanta
Against the Spread: Atlanta

The Match-up: Detroit (0.0) @ Minnesota
The Skinny: Now that Daunte Culpepper’s season is over, the Vikings season is about to go down like a sinking ship, no pun intended. Alright, maybe it was intended.
Straight up: Detroit
Against the Spread: Detroit

The Match-up: San Diego (-6.5) @ New York Jets
The Skinny: The Jets tend to play pretty well at home, but the Chargers may be the best 4-4 team in the history of the league.
Straight up: San Diego
Against the Spread: New York Jets

The Match-up: Carolina (-1.5) @ Tampa Bay
The Skinny: The battle for first place in the NFC South takes place when the Panthers visit the Bucs, with Tampa listed as the underdog. Call it the “Chris Simms Factor.”
Straight up: Carolina
Against the Spread: Carolina

The Match-up: Tennessee (+3.0) @ Cleveland
The Skinny: Earlier I mentioned something about trusting your instincts. Well, for some reason I have a feeling the Titans will pull a mild upset in the dog pound.
Straight up: Tennessee
Against the Spread: Tennessee

The Match-up: Houston (+13.5) @ Jacksonville
The Skinny: Jacksonville doesn’t score enough to justify the high spread. It is almost time for the Texans to start thinking about whether they will take Matt Leinart or Reggie Bush with the #1 pick next April.
Straight up: Jacksonville
Against the Spread: Houston

The Match-up: Oakland (+4.5) @ Kansas City
The Skinny: KC owns Oakland at Arrowhead.
Straight up: Kansas City
Against the Spread: Kansas City

The Match-up: Chicago (-3.0) @ New Orleans
The Skinny: Last week’s OT thriller just about clinched the NFC North for the 4-3 Bears. I wish I was kidding, but I’m not.
Straight up: Chicago
Against the Spread: Chicago

The Match-up: Seattle (-4.0) @ Arizona
The Skinny: Seattle is typically not a good road team. Arizona is just not a good team.
Straight up: Seattle
Against the Spread: Seattle

The Match-up: New York Giants (-11.0) @ San Francisco
The Skinny: Each week, the Giants are looking more and more like a legitimate contender in the NFC. As for San Francisco, Cody Pickett will start at QB this week. What, were Steve Bono and Jim Druckenmiller unavailable?
Straight up: New York Giants
Against the Spread: New York Giants

The Match-up: Pittsburgh (-3.5) @ Green Bay
The Skinny: How bad are the Packers? Not only are they an underdog at Lambeau (which happens roughly once every 5 years), but they’re an underdog against a team led by Charlie Batch.
Straight up: Pittsburgh
Against the Spread: Pittsburgh

The Match-up: Philadelphia (+3.0) @ Washington
The Skinny: The next three weeks will determine a lot about the hierarchy in the NFC East – Philly visits Washington, hosts Dallas (they suck, by the way), and travels to The Meadowlands to take on the Giants. If the birds are going to win the division, they’ll need to take at least two of the next three, perhaps without T.O. Difficult, but not impossible.
Straight up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia

The Match-up: Indianapolis (-3.0) @ New England
The Skinny: Do the Colts FINALLY have New England’s number? They’ve been in this spot before (i.e., favored in Foxboro) and flopped. Will this one be any different? In a word, yes.
Straight up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Indianapolis

The Week 8 Picks

I’ve got to get something off my chest.

I was watching last week’s Eagles-Chargers game on CBS, a broadcast featuring the color commentary of Dan Dierdorf. After scoring a touchdown, Eagles WR Terrell Owens caught a touchdown, draped a towel over his arm, held the football up like a cocktail waitress carrying a tray of drinks and paraded around the end zone. By all accounts, it was not the best TD celebration of his career. So after San Diego’s Keenan McCardell caught a touchdown, he did the exact same thing, in essence mocking T.O. Dierdorf said that Owens got what was coming to him, or something like that.

Which got me thinking…

Remember last year when the Eagles hosted the Ravens on Halloween? T.O. scored a touchdown and did Ray Lewis’ dance, and all the announcers could talk about was how Owens was mocking Lewis, disrespecting him as a man. If memory serves me correctly, CBS’ color commentator for that game was…Dan Dierdorf!

So, what is the difference between what T.O. did a year ago and what McCardell did last week?

For that matter, other national media members talked about Owens mocking Lewis, but then didn’t say a thing the following week when Pittsburgh’s Hines Ward did T.O.’s wing flap (not once, but twice) after scoring touchdowns against the Eagles, nor did anyone think it was disrespectful when multiple members of the Patriots (specifically Mike Vrabel and Rodney Harrison) did the same in the Super Bowl.

The message? Guys like T.O. get a bad rap no matter what they do. Makes it understandable when Owens does some of the things he does. The Media will not change their perception of Owens, so he’s basically giving them a collective middle finger.

And I don’t have a problem with that.

I do have a problem with my 4-9-1 record in Week 7 (overall 53-46-3), and will attempt to correct that this week. Straight up, we’re putting up numbers (9-5 last week, 67-35 overall), and the beat goes on.

The Match-up: Washington (+2.5) @ New York Giants
The Skinny: Nice last-second win for the Giants over Denver a week ago. The rival Washington Redskins provide the first NFC East test for the Giants.
Straight up: New York Giants
Against the Spread: New York Giants

The Match-up: Green Bay (+9.0) @ Cincinnati
The Skinny: Talk about going from bad to worse. The Packers are 1-5, and now Ahman Green is out for the season with a ruptured thigh tendon. Two words, Packers fans – Reggie Bush.
Straight up: Cincinnati
Against the Spread: Cincinnati

The Match-up: Arizona (+9.0) @ Dallas
The Skinny: Josh McCown and Larry Fitzgerald pull off the upset of the year.
Straight up: Arizona
Against the Spread: Arizona

The Match-up: Minnesota (+7.5) @ Carolina
The Skinny: As long as Jake Delhomme is fully recovered from the Lindros he sustained two weeks ago, I love the Panthers.
Straight up: Carolina
Against the Spread: Carolina

The Match-up: Cleveland (+2.0) @ Houston
The Skinny: The Texans are favored? Could they finally score their elusive first win of the season?
Straight up: Houston
Against the Spread: Houston

The Match-up: Chicago (+3.0) @ Detroit
The Skinny: The winner between these two 3-3 clubs will finish 7-9, win the NFC North and make the playoffs while two teams in the NFC East will be over .500 and on the outside looking in. Even the San Diego Padres think that’s outrageous.
Straight up: Detroit
Against the Spread: Detroit

The Match-up: Oakland (-1.0) @ Tennessee
The Skinny: Randy Moss played last week and scored a touchdown. Not bad for a guy that was doubtful with bruised ribs, eh?
Straight up: Oakland
Against the Spread: Oakland

The Match-up: Jacksonville (-3.0) @ St. Louis
The Skinny: I know he won last week, but I’m still not betting on Jamie Martin. Between the Jaguars stout defense and the depleted Rams secondary, I’ll take the Jags.
Straight up: Jacksonville
Against the Spread: Jacksonville

The Match-up: Kansas City (+6.0) @ San Diego
The Skinny: How quickly can the Chargers rebound from last week’s heartbreaker? I’d say by the 4th quarter. I can see San Diego coming from behind to win a close game late.
Straight up: San Diego
Against the Spread: Kansas City

The Match-up: Miami (+2.5) @ New Orleans
The Skinny: It’s about time for some breaks to go in favor of the Saints. A couple of weeks ago, they were flagged for holding on a missed field goal, giving Atlanta another shot (which they, of course, made). Then there was last week’s fumble that wasn’t but was returned for a touchdown. The breaks always seem to even themselves out.
Straight up: New Orleans
Against the Spread: New Orleans

The Match-up: Tampa Bay (-11.0) @ San Francisco
The Skinny: I’m probably the only guy in the business that changed his pick when he saw Ken Dorsey was going to start for the Niners on Sunday. Dorsey may be able to keep San Francisco close.
Straight up: Tampa Bay
Against the Spread: San Francisco

The Match-up: Philadelphia (+3.5) @ Denver
The Skinny: The Eagles defense will need to replicate their run-stopping effort against the Broncos this week and put the game in the hands of Jake Plummer, who eventually will remember that he is Jake Plummer and start chucking interceptions again.
Straight up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia

The Match-up: Buffalo (+9.0) @ New England
The Skinny: I guess you really shouldn’t feel sorry for the two-time defending World Champions, but the Patriots have lost their air of invincibility. Not saying they’ll lose to Buffalo, especially at home, but the Bills could give them a scare.
Straight up: New England
Against the Spread: Buffalo

The Match-up: Baltimore (+10.0) @ Pittsburgh
The Skinny: Speaking of underachieving, I give you the Baltimore Ravens. How do you beat that defense? Run right at them. What is the Steelers’ offensive strength? Running the football. Uh-oh.
Straight up: Pittsburgh
Against the Spread: Pittsburgh

The Week 7 Picks

“Clutch.”

To some, it’s a car part. To the sports fan, it’s a word used to describe a play that occurs at a key time in the game, one that often changes momentum and has a direct impact on the final score. “Clutch” can also describe the player who makes such a play. On Saturday, October 15th, 2005, the term “clutch” was personified by a freshman kicker at the University of Massachusetts named Armando Cuko.

In Saturday’s game against James Madison (ranked fourth nationally in Division I-AA), Cuko kicked a 41 yard field goal with eight seconds to go lifting the Minutemen to a 10-7 win on homecoming weekend. Now, making that kick for a freshman is pressure enough. What makes Cuko’s kick so special is that the game was being played in a virtual monsoon, on a sloppy field where the mud was ankle deep in spots. Most kickers wouldn’t be able to get their footing, let alone drill the kick the way Cuko did.

Hell, even Kirk Gibson thinks Armando Cuko is clutch.

Speaking of clutch, this guy scored his best week of the season, posting 11-3 marks both straight up and against the spread. Now, I’m not saying I’m clutch like Armando Cuko (because quite frankly no one is), but I am superstitious. That said, this week’s picks will be brief in nature as last week’s were, in hopes of replicating the results.

But before I share the picks, big props to the boys who made last weekend’s road trip such a blast:

W “Laying on the Hood of the Trans Am” Jackson

The Archbishop Desmond “Dez” Jackson (Go home and go to sleep, I ain’t tryin’ to holla at you, I’m tryin’ to holla at some bitches)

My brother, Otis “I peed in the alley” Miller

And yours truly, Jake “Sideline boy at Tiki Bob’s” Miller

And to the Penn State fan from the hood, take your head out of the oven (at least long enough to read the picks). Acknowledgement is the first step.

If you have to ask, you’re probably better off not knowing…

The Match-up: Kansas City (+1.5) @ Miami
The Skinny: This game was moved to Friday due to the impending threat of Hurricane Wilma. The Dolphins may wish the game was cancelled altogether.
Straight up: Kansas City
Against the Spread: Kansas City

The Match-up: New Orleans (+3.0) @ St. Louis
The Skinny: The Saints expect to have Joe Horn back in the lineup, while the Rams will be without Marc Bulger for at least three weeks. I’m not saying Jamie Martin is Tommy Maddox, but he’s also not a guy I’d wager on.
Straight up: New Orleans
Against the Spread: New Orleans

The Match-up: Green Bay (-2.0) @ Minnesota
The Skinny: Rare is Brett Favre favored in a dome. How bad must the Vikings be?
Straight up: Green Bay
Against the Spread: Green Bay

The Match-up: San Diego (+4.0) @ Philadelphia
The Skinny: The Eagles could use a big win to silence their critics following their embarrassing loss in Dallas prior to the bye. A win over AFC power San Diego would suffice.
Straight up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia

The Match-up: San Francisco (+12.5) @ Washington
The Skinny: The trade of Tim Rattay to Tampa ensures that the 49ers will go with Alex Smith for the remainder of the season. My condolences, Niners fans.
Straight up: Washington
Against the Spread: San Francisco

The Match-up: Pittsburgh (+1.0) @ Cincinnati
The Skinny: Only because I’m not sure how healthy Ben Roethlisberger is.
Straight up: Cincinnati
Against the Spread: Cincinnati

The Match-up: Indianapolis (-16.0) @ Houston
The Skinny: The league’s last undefeated team rolls into Houston, where their fast, aggressive defense should give the Texans’ O-line fits. Perhaps David Carr could save himself some punishment by simply laying down in the pocket.
Straight up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Houston

The Match-up: Detroit (+3.0) @ Cleveland
The Skinny: Since Steve Mariucci has yet to name his starting QB, this is a tough game to pick. My guess is Joey Harrington gets one more week (Translation – take the Browns).
Straight up: Cleveland
Against the Spread: Cleveland

The Match-up: Dallas (+3.0) @ Seattle
The Skinny: Dallas sucks.
Straight up: Seattle
Against the Spread: Seattle

The Match-up: Buffalo (+3.0) @ Oakland
The Skinny: The Raiders may be without Randy Moss, which may or may not be a good thing.
Straight up: Buffalo
Against the Spread: Buffalo

The Match-up: Denver (+2.0) @ New York Giants
The Skinny: Denver has won five straight and sits atop the AFC West. And yet, they’re a road dog against the Giants. Do the math.
Straight up: New York Giants
Against the Spread: New York Giants

The Match-up: Tennessee (+3.5) @ Arizona
The Skinny: If only Dennis Green would have gone with Josh McCown all season. He did this same crap last year (you undoubtedly remember the one and only start of the John Navarre era). Hey Denny, let the kid play!
Straight up: Arizona
Against the Spread: Arizona

The Match-up: Baltimore (+1.0) @ Chicago
The Skinny: Thomas Jones sure looked healthy last week for a guy who was listed as “Doubtful” when I picked them to lose to the Vikings. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on the Bears PR staff.
Straight up: Chicago
Against the Spread: Chicago

The Match-up: New York Jets (+7.0) @ Atlanta
The Skinny: Vinny Testaverde is merely keeping the seat warm for Philip Rivers, who may make his way to New York prior to Tuesday’s trade deadline.
Straight up: Atlanta
Against the Spread: Atlanta

The Week 6 Picks

Before we get to this week’s picks, I have to comment on last week’s Eagles-Cowboys game, and in the interest of censoring myself, I shall replace all of the inappropriate terminology with the word “chicken:”

What the chicken kind of chicken game was that? How do the Eagles go down to chicken Dallas and lose to those chicken chickens? Drew chicken Bledsoe throws for three chicken TD’s? Terry chicken Glenn burns us twice (even though she’s pretty chicken fast)? Chicken. Chicken chicken. That chicken stadium is such a hole. The hole with a chicken hole in the chicken roof. And its filled with chickens. And if I have to see Jerry chicken Jones and that stupid chicken commercial, I’m going to strangle his chicken chicken so hard his chicken plastic surgery will fall of his chicken face. Chicken chicken chicken. Chicken chicken chicken chicken chicken. Mother chickens.

As for the double-digit winning streak? It’s over, thanks to last week’s 8-6 mark (chicken). A push in the Jacksonville/Cincinnati game (thanks to a late move in the line) kept me over .500 on the books for the week.

Apologies for the brevity of these picks, but it’s a road game for The Kid this weekend. Here they are.

The Match-up: Jacksonville (+3.0) @ Pittsburgh
The Skinny: Exhale, Steelers fans – Ben Roethlisberger didn’t tear anything in his knee when it was hyper-extended on Monday night. As for this game, it was a tough call without knowing the status of Roethlisberger’s knee. I mean, if Ben can’t go, the Steelers are left with Charlie Batch at QB, and that’s not good for anyone involved.
Straight up: Jacksonville
Against the Spread: Jacksonville

The Match-up: Minnesota (+3.0) @ Chicago
The Skinny: I know the Vikings have struggled this season and have their problems playing outdoors, but are they really dogs against the Bears without Thomas Jones?
Straight up: Minnesota
Against the Spread: Minnesota

The Match-up: Miami (+5.5) @ Tampa Bay
The Skinny: Watch for Ricky Williams to make his return to action. But the real story is college teammates Ronnie Brown and Carnell Williams facing each other for the first time.
Straight up: Tampa Bay
Against the Spread: Tampa Bay

The Match-up: New York Giants (+3.5) @ Dallas
The Skinny: Chicken Dallas chicken sucks. Chickens.
Straight up: New York Giants
Against the Spread: New York Giants

The Match-up: Cleveland (+5.5) @ Baltimore
The Skinny: You know, some games just don’t inspire anyone. Trent Dilfer vs. Anthony Wright…something tells me this one won’t be airing on ESPN Classic anytime soon.
Straight up: Baltimore
Against the Spread: Baltimore

The Match-up: Carolina (+1.0) @ Detroit
The Skinny: Seriously, the Lions are favored? What’s wrong with this picture?
Straight up: Carolina
Against the Spread: Carolina

The Match-up: Cincinnati (-3.0) @ Tennessee
The Skinny: Still drinking the Bengals Kool Aid despite last week’s loss in Jacksonville.
Straight up: Cincinnati
Against the Spread: Cincinnati

The Match-up: Washington (+6.0) @ Kansas City
The Skinny: Toughest game of the weekend to pick. How will the Chiefs respond off the bye (and off a big collapse at home against the Eagles)? Will the Redskins defense contain Priest Holmes and the potent Kansas City offense? Stay tuned.
Straight up: Kansas City
Against the Spread: Kansas City

The Match-up: Atlanta (-5.5) @ New Orleans
The Skinny: Ron Mexico likely returns for the Dirty Birds, and Deuce McAllister is now done for the year after tearing his ACL last week. Not a good situation for the Saints.
Straight up: Atlanta
Against the Spread: Atlanta

The Match-up: New York Jets (+3.0) @ Buffalo
The Skinny: Kelly Holcomb gets another start at QB for the Bills, and he’ll face a stern challenge from the Jets defense. Memo to Holcomb – get the ball to Lee Evans.
Straight up: Buffalo
Against the Spread: Buffalo

The Match-up: New England (+3.0) @ Denver
The Skinny: The Denver Broncos have played very well of late, especially running the ball and on defense. What’s more, Jake Plummer has gone three straight games without an interception (all three Denver wins). That just means he’s overdue.
Straight up: New England
Against the Spread: New England

The Match-up: San Diego (-2.0) @ Oakland
The Skinny: Big bounce back week for the Bolts after falling to the Steelers at home on Monday. They’ll have a short week to get ready for the Raiders.
Straight up: San Diego
Against the Spread: San Diego

The Match-up: Houston (+9.5) @ Seattle
The Skinny: Even though Matt Hasselbeck has virtually no one to throw to, he still can hand it off to Shaun Alexander, and that alone should be enough to knock off Houston.
Straight up: Seattle
Against the Spread: Seattle

The Match-up: St. Louis (+13.5) @ Indianapolis
The Skinny: St. Louis is great on turf, just not Indianapolis’ turf. The Colts offense still isn’t untracked, and they’re still undefeated. Scary.
Straight up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Indianapolis

The Week 5 Picks

Can you believe that Sunday marks Week 5 already? Its unreal how fast this season is going by. I guess we’re coming up on mid-season, and as coincidence would have it, The Kid is starting to round into mid-season form. Last week’s 10-4 record was my third consecutive 10+ win week, bringing the season record to 39-21 (only percentage points behind ESPN’s top guy, Sean Salisbury, sitting at 39-20). My 9-5 record against the spread was not only my best week of the year, but also got me back above .500 for the season. It’s usually around this time that I hang a 4-10, 3-11 week up there. You’ve been warned.

The Match-up: Baltimore (+1.5) @ Detroit
The Skinny: I know it seems like I rank on Joey Harrington every week, and I usually do. But I thought he showed some signs of life in almost leading the Lions to a road upset in Tampa a week ago. It’s a shame Harrington doesn’t play like that all the time. If he did, Lions fans wouldn’t be counting down the days until Jeff Garcia returns from his broken leg.
Straight up: Baltimore
Against the Spread: Baltimore

The Match-up: New Orleans (+3.0) @ Green Bay
The Skinny: The good news for the Green Bay Packers? Even at 0-4, they are not mathematically eliminated from the playoffs. That’s not to say I’d feel good about their chances, especially with that defense. But if the Packers are going to win 6-7 games this year (which might actually win the NFC North), they’ll need to start soon.
Straight up: Green Bay
Against the Spread: Green Bay

The Match-up: Seattle (+3.0) @ St. Louis
The Skinny: All kidding aside, the Seattle/St. Louis games of late have been good ones, and they always seem to have some impact on the division standings. Of course, with Arizona and San Francisco in the division, the Rams and Seahawks should be first and second (in some order). St. Louis draws first blood in this year’s round robin.
Straight up: St. Louis
Against the Spread: St. Louis

The Match-up: Tampa Bay (-3.5) @ New York Jets
The Skinny: Every now and again, you get a feeling in your gut about a particular game, even if common sense should tell you to feel otherwise. One of the major keys to Tampa’s early-season success has been the running of Carnell “Cadillac” Williams, but it’s highly unlikely that he’ll be able to go on Sunday. The Jets turn the reigns over to 86-year old Vinny Testaverde, a former Buccaneer, and normally that would scare me. But something is telling me that Vinny and the Jets will get it done.
Straight up: New York Jets
Against the Spread: New York Jets

The Match-up: New England (+3.0) @ Atlanta
The Skinny: Remember something I mentioned a couple of weeks back – the Patriots haven’t lost back-to-back games since Weeks 15 and 16 of the 2002 season. That is ridiculous. Against a one-dimensional Falcons offense (especially with Ron Mexico dinged), I like the Patriots to avoid their second consecutive loss.
Straight up: New England
Against the Spread: New England

The Match-up: Miami (+2.5) @ Buffalo
The Skinny: The Bills will turn to Kelly Holcomb in an attempt to jump-start their slumbering offense. Now, that’s not exactly Jim Sorgi subbing for Peyton Manning, but it probably isn’t the solution to Buffalo’s offensive problems either. The reality for the Bills is that they’ll only go as far as the legs of Willis McGahee will take them.
Straight up: Buffalo
Against the Spread: Buffalo

The Match-up: Chicago (+3.0) @ Cleveland
The Skinny: I was only half-kidding last week when I said the Bears would actually gain ground in their division while on bye last week, but that’s exactly what they did. The first place Bears return to action in Cleveland this week.
Straight up: Chicago
Against the Spread: Chicago

The Match-up: Tennessee (+3.0) @ Houston
The Skinny: In a word? Yawn. I guess somebody has to win, right? I actually liked the way Houston hung around with the mighty Bengals last week. I expect them to ride the legs of Domanick Davis to a ‘W’ this week.
Straight up: Houston
Against the Spread: Houston

The Match-up: Indianapolis (-14.0) @ San Francisco
The Skinny: Normally, a 14-point line would be cause for concern, until you realize it’s the potentially Super Bowl bound Colts taking on the 49ers. Can you imagine what the spread would be if the game was in Indianapolis? Alex Smith will make his first NFL start on Sunday, and if the Niners O-line doesn’t block Dwight Freeney, it may be Smith’s last start as well.
Straight up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Indianapolis

The Match-up: Washington (+7.0) @ Denver
The Skinny: Props to both the Redskins and Broncos on big wins last week. The ‘Skins gave up a late score, but eventually beat Seattle in OT to stay undefeated. Denver stepped into the low altitude and defensively frustrated the Jaguars. When two good defenses go head to head, you can bet the game will be tight. Clinton Portis returns to his old haunts, but it’s Denver who will get the last laugh in a tight one at Mile High.
Straight up: Denver
Against the Spread: Washington

The Match-up: Carolina (-3.0) @ Arizona
The Skinny: Anybody else get the feeling the Panthers were going to come from ahead to lose that game Monday against the Packers? They’ll have to play four full quarters to beat a Cardinals team that looks much, much better with Josh McCown under center in place of Kurt Warner.
Straight up: Carolina
Against the Spread: Carolina

The Match-up: Philadelphia (-3.5) @ Dallas
The Skinny: It’s like Christmas in October for me, as the Eagles head to that piece of crap stadium with the hole in the roof looking to win their fourth straight heading into the bye. Last year, the Birds hung 49 on Dallas on a Monday night (the infamous T.O./Nicolette Sheridan towel game). This year, the only towel involved should be the one Dallas throws in after the Eagles start running them off the field.
Straight up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia

The Match-up: Cincinnati (+2.5) @ Jacksonville
The Skinny: The 4-0 Bengals (that still sounds funny, even though I’m drunk on the Cincinnati Bengals Kool Aid) take their show to Jacksonville, where the Jags will be looking to rebound from last week’s embarrassing loss to Denver. I’m a little skeptical of the line (4-0 Cincinnati a road dog?), thus I’m taking Jacksonville. Maybe the buzz is starting to wear off.
Straight up: Jacksonville
Against the Spread: Jacksonville

The Match-up: Pittsburgh (+3.0) @ San Diego
The Skinny: Courtesy of big wins over the New York Giants and New England Patriots (scoring a combined 86 points in the two victories), the Chargers have evened their record at 2-2 and now face their third straight playoff-caliber team, the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Steelers will still have a bad taste in their mouths, as Monday will be their first game action since being upset by the Pats. That said, the Chargers offense is hot. Maybe too hot for even Pittsburgh’s defense to contain.
Straight up: San Diego
Against the Spread: San Diego

The Week 4 Picks

Ever been to Vegas? In case you haven’t, it’s a pretty cool place. There are big, tall resort hotels and casinos covered in bright lights, and they’re always building more of them. It truly is an oasis in the middle of the desert. And how can they afford to keep doing this? Because of suckers like me, that’s how. As proven in the past, anyone can pick winners (and I nailed 10 of them last week, bringing my season’s record to 29-17). But those guys that set the lines do so for a reason – to make money. That’s why more often than not a 10-4 straight-up record is accompanied by a 5-9 mark against the spread.

Bye weeks this week for Chicago, Cleveland, Miami and Pittsburgh. No bye week for this guy. That said, here are the Week 4 picks.

The Match-up: Detroit (+6.5) @ Tampa Bay
The Skinny: The scorecard so far on Joey Harrington's "make or break" year? Break. After squeaking by the Packers in Week 1, the Lions looked like, well, the Lions against Chicago the week before the bye. A road trip to red-hot Tampa is imminent.
Straight up: Tampa Bay
Against the Spread: Tampa Bay

The Match-up: Seattle (+2.0) @ Washington
The Skinny: The bye week may have come at a bad time for Washington. Will the Redskins be able to rediscover the momentum they gained during the last 3:46 of the Dallas game on Monday night of Week 2? They’ll have a good chance against a Seattle team that has been abysmal on the road. But I think the ‘Skins are more of the team we saw for the first 56:14 of the Dallas game as opposed to the guys who completed the miracle comeback.
Straight up: Seattle
Against the Spread: Seattle

The Match-up: Houston (+9.5) @ Cincinnati
The Skinny: What in the name of Jack Thompson, “The Throwin’ Samoan,” is going on with the Bengals? I’m not sure if they’re as good as they look or if they’re playing against inferior teams, but the Bengals look great so far. I hope there’s still room on the Bengals bandwagon, because I’m about to climb aboard.
Straight up: Cincinnati
Against the Spread: Cincinnati

The Match-up: Denver (+4.0) @ Jacksonville
The Skinny: Jacksonville may possess the modern-day version of the ‘No Name’ defense. Their not loaded with superstars, but they play an aggressive style predicated on pressuring the quarterback and forcing turnovers. Against a guy prone to the interception like Jake Plummer, the Jags are always a solid play.
Straight up: Jacksonville
Against the Spread: Jacksonville

The Match-up: Indianapolis (-7.0) @ Tennessee
The Skinny: Seriously, Peyton Manning is still playing for the Colts, right? If you would have told me that Manning would have two TD tosses through three games, I would have guessed the Colts would be 0-3 or 1-2. But they’re 3-0 and have allowed a total of 16 points on the season. If you do that, I could be your quarterback and you’d be 3-0.
Straight up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Indianapolis

The Match-up: San Diego (+5.5) @ New England
The Skinny: There's been much said about the Patriots' ability to lose a player to injury or free agency and simply plug in an able body and continue on without missing a beat. But the loss of Rodney Harrison will be extremely hard to cope with, especially against a good running team like San Diego.
Straight up: New England
Against the Spread: San Diego

The Match-up: Buffalo (pick) @ New Orleans
The Skinny: You might as well call the Saints Willie Nelson, because they’re on the road again. This is their third game in less than three weeks. Two of the three were home games but all three will take place in three different stadiums. Figure that out. Much like the Week 1 win over Carolina where emotion carried the Saints, such will be the case in San Antonio on Sunday (especially against a Buffalo defense suddenly minus Takeo Spikes).
Straight up: New Orleans
Against the Spread: New Orleans

The Match-up: St. Louis (+3.0) @ New York Giants
The Skinny: Someone forgot to tell the Giants that they had to play two halves in San Diego last Sunday. After hanging around with the Bolts through the first 30 minutes, the Giants got bum rushed in the second and ended up losing by 22. At lease Eli survived the rabid San Diego crowd.
Straight up: New York Giants
Against the Spread: New York Giants

The Match-up: New York Jets (+7.0) @ Baltimore
The Skinny: Imagine the gambler’s delight upon reading the following sentence as it scrolled along ESPN’s Bottom line: ‘Jets QB Brooks Bollinger expected to start Sunday at Baltimore.’ Brooks, meet Ray Lewis.
Straight up: Baltimore
Against the Spread: Baltimore

The Match-up: Minnesota (+6.0) @ Atlanta
The Skinny: Sad to say that courtesy of last week's win, the 1-2 Vikings are now tied with the Chicago Bears for 2nd place in the NFC North (trailing 1-1 Detroit by mere percentage points). Luckily, if the Vikings fall to 1-3 in Atlanta on Sunday, they're probably still going to be in 2nd place. Can you sense the sarcasm?
Straight up: Atlanta
Against the Spread: Atlanta

The Match-up: Philadelphia (+2.0) @ Kansas City
The Skinny: To be perfectly honest, the line on this game scares me a little bit. It’s not often that the Eagles are underdogs, but they are this week. So does that mean I'm going to break one of my golden rules? Never.
Straight up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia

The Match-up: Dallas (+3.0) @ Oakland
The Skinny: As referenced above, I will never break one of my golden rules, therefore I'm taking the 0-3 (but much better than their record indicates) Raiders to finally break into the win column.
Straight up: Oakland
Against the Spread: Oakland

The Match-up: San Francisco (+2.5) @ Arizona
The Skinny: What a Sunday night barn-burner: 1-2 San Francisco at 0-3 Arizona. I'm sure national TV audiences will be clamoring for this one. Remember everyone saying Arizona was going to win the West? I think some guy pointed out at the beginning of the year that they weren't going to be that good…
Straight up: San Francisco
Against the Spread: San Francisco

The Match-up: Green Bay (+7.5) @ Carolina
The Skinny: An old adage applies here, and its one I’ve committed to memory because I’ve been burned by it in the past – Never bet against Brett Favre on a Monday night.
Straight up: Carolina
Against the Spread: Green Bay

The Week 3 Picks

Ah, Week 3, where wide-spread speculation about a team based merely on off-season acquisitions and potential is replaced by actual analysis of real game action. That said, here are a few quick hit observations from the first two weeks of NFL 2005:

-- A 2-0 start does not immediately grant a team “contender” status: Yes, the Bengals and Redskins have looked impressive out of the gates. No, they won’t be facing each other in Detroit on February 5th, 2006.
-- Conversely, an 0-2 record does not signify impending doom. The 2003 Philadelphia Eagles started 0-2 and still went on to win their division and reach the NFC championship game. Keep the faith, Chargers fan!
-- Has there been a more disappointing team thus far than the Minnesota Vikings? Maybe they’re not the most improved team in the league.
-- Speaking of Minnesota, Daunte Culpepper has as many TD passes this year as I do.
-- Another superstar QB whose numbers are down, Peyton Manning has only thrown two TD’s in two games. Captain Math tells us he’s on pace to finsh with 16 scoring tosses this year. I’m willing to bet my “Expert” status that he’ll end up with more than that this year.
-- Can I get a mulligan on my Offensive Rookie of the Year prediction? Through two games, Tampa Bay’s Carnell “Cadillac” Williams sure looks like the real deal.

Anyway, on to the business at hand. Last week’s records: 11-5 straight up (19-13 cumulative), 8-7-1 against the spread (16-15-1). We’re starting to feel it just in time for the first bye week of the year. So as Baltimore, Detroit, Houston and Washington sit at home, we roll on…

The Match-up: Carolina (-3.0) @ Miami
The Skinny: You can call this the Cyndi Lauper Bowl, because it features two teams that have seen both sides of the spectrum thus far. Carolina lost at home to New Orleans in Week 1, then upset the defending champion Patriots a week ago. Miami shocked everybody by stomping Denver in Nick Saban's debut, then only managed seven points in a loss to the Jets last week. So which team will show their true colors in Week 3? Get it, Cyndi Lauper, "True Colors?" Come on, people. Mix in some VH1.
Straight up: Carolina
Against the Spread: Carolina

The Match-up: New Orleans (+4.0) @ Minnesota
The Skinny: America's new team, the Saints, plays its third straight road game (don't let last week's "home" date with the Giants fool you). Say what you want about their resiliency, but the Saints have got to be tired of all this traveling. The Vikings are down, and now key players like Michael Bennett and Nate Burleson are starting to get dinged up. This is exactly the kind of game that the Vikings will win. It'll be close, but I like the Vikes to get off the schneid.
Straight up: Minnesota
Against the Spread: New Orleans

The Match-up: Jacksonville (+2.5) @ New York Jets
The Skinny: Byron Leftwich is a tough s.o.b. I was impressed by his ability to take shot after devastating shot and keep getting up and playing. Reminded me of that game back at Marshall when a couple of his linemen literally had to carry him to the line of scrimmage because he basically couldn't walk. How do you bet against a guy like that?
Straight up: Jacksonville
Against the Spread: Jacksonville

The Match-up: Oakland (+8.0) @ Philadelphia
The Skinny: Come Sunday afternoon, the Raiders could be the best 0-3 team in the league. Talk about a tough schedule out of the gate - at New England, vs. Kansas City, now at Philadelphia. I mean, that's three bona fide contenders in three weeks. My guess is that Darth Raider won't be sending Paul Tagliabue a Christmas card this year.
Straight up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia

The Match-up: Atlanta (off) @ Buffalo
The Skinny: Literally, a coin toss game. Ron Mexico is questionable with a hamstring injury, which might actually help Atlanta (seeing as Buffalo's run defense is very good and Mexico's back up, Matt Schaub, is a better passer). I think Mexico will play, but the Bills will steal a win.
Straight up: Buffalo
Against the Spread: Buffalo

The Match-up: Cincinnati (-3.0) @ Chicago
The Skinny: The match-up everyone will talk about is the explosive offense of theBengals facing the stout Bears defense. But they'll probably cancel each other out. Plain and simple, this game will be decided by the ability of the Bears to run the ball with Thomas Jones, control the clock, and keep Carson Palmer and the Cincinnati offense standing on the sidelines.
Straight up: Chicago
Against the Spread: Chicago

The Match-up: Tampa Bay (-3.5) @ Green Bay
The Skinny: I was only half-kidding when I said last week's Cleveland/Green Bay game was a battle for the first pick in next year's draft. But looking at the other teams in the league, is there a team in more trouble than the Packers? I'm guessing this isn't what Brett Favre had in mind when he signed on for this year.
Straight up: Tampa Bay
Against the Spread: Tampa Bay

The Match-up: Cleveland (+13.5) @ Indianapolis
The Skinny: If the Colts scored 55 points in this game, would you be surprised? Me neither. I'm very impressed with Indy's defense to this point in time. They sure look like a complete team, maybe the best in the AFC (sorry Pittsburgh and New England).
Straight up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Indianapolis

The Match-up: Tennessee (+6.5) @ St. Louis
The Skinny: Remember when these two teams played one of the best Super Bowls in recent memory? That was a great game. This one, most likely, will not be. St. Louis has historically been a great team at home on that turf.
Straight up: St. Louis
Against the Spread: St. Louis

The Match-up: Dallas (-6.5) @ San Francisco
The Skinny: Wasn't it fun watching the Cowboys fall asleep at the wheel last week and cough up a 13-point lead in the last 3:46 against Washington? To all you Dallas fans out there, that was Mark Brunell throwing the ball over your secondary's head. Just wanted to remind you of that.
Straight up: San Francisco
Against the Spread: San Francisco

The Match-up: Arizona (+6.5) @ Seattle
The Skinny: Always looking for new and exciting ways to lose football games, the Cardinals may have outdone themselves last week. With no time outs remaining, the Cards marched into field goal range, then Kurt Warner was sacked. Rather than spiking the ball and stopping the clock with about 20 seconds to go and perhaps kicking the tying field goal, Warner tried to call a play. The clock ran down to 7 seconds, and the Cards were flagged for a false start. The penalty carried a ten-second run-off, thus the game ended with Arizona on the short end of the score. Only the Cardinals.
Straight up: Seattle
Against the Spread: Seattle

The Match-up: New England (+3.0) @ Pittsburgh
The Skinny: I really wanted to take the Steelers, because I think they are a solid, solid football team. But then I started looking at the numbers and realized that even with last week's loss to Carolina, the Patriots are 35-5 over their last 40 games (including playoffs). Anyone recall the last time the Pats lost consecutive games? Exactly.
Straight up: New England
Against the Spread: New England

The Match-up: New York Giants (+5.5) @ San Diego
The Skinny: Eli Manning's first game in San Diego comes this Sunday, about 13 months later than Chargers fans thought when they drafted his first overall in 2004. The Giants have opened some eyes in the NFC, but it's the 0-2 Chargers who are in desperate need of a win. I do like San Diego to win at home, but I also like Eli and the Giants to keep it close throughout.
Straight up: San Diego
Against the Spread: New York Giants

The Match-up: Kansas City (+3.0) @ Denver
The Skinny: I'm having a hard time figuring the Broncos out this year. This week, I'll solicit a little help from the Vegas odds-makers. Denver, a team that was embarrassed in Miami in Week 1 and barely squeaked by San Diego a week ago is favored over 2-0 Kansas City? There has to be a reason for that.
Straight up: Denver
Against the Spread: Denver

The Week 2 Picks

Week 1 was full of surprises, to say the least. Who could have figured that Miami would stomp Denver like that? I mean, did they bring Dan Marino, Mark Duper, Mark Clayton and Mercury Morris out of retirement or something? ESPN Magazine picked the Vikings to win the Super Bowl this year, yet they get embarrassed at home by Tampa Bay? St. Louis and Carolina also fell in Week 1, meaning all three players in my suicide pool have already, well, died.

In the immortal words of former Packers coach Vince Lombardi: "What the hell's going on out here?"

When the dust all settled, all I had to show for it was an 8-8 record both ways. Not great, but with all those land mines out there, not all that bad either. Here's hoping Week 2 is much more predictable.

The Match-up: New England (-3.0) @ Carolina
The Skinny: There's always one game a week that you can go back and forth on. I really like Carolina this year, but the Patriots are consistently among the league's elite. The game is in Charlotte, but the Panthers are already down a man, with DT Kris Jenkins out for the season. Even if Carolina was 100% healthy, I'd still probably take the Pats.
Straight Up: New England
Against the Spread: New England

The Match-up: Pittsburgh (-6.0) @ Houston
The Skinny: I know Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger is questionable with a bum knee, and the prospect of Tommy Maddox starting does scare me a little bit. Not enough to make me bet against Pittsburgh and that defense, but still its not a slam dunk. So is Pittsburgh RB Willie Parker the next Jerome Bettis, or the next Amos Zereoue? To be determined, I guess.
Straight up: Pittsburgh
Against the Spread: Pittsburgh

The Match-up: Baltimore (-3.5) @ Tennessee
The Skinny: Kyle Boller's injury may end up being a blessing in disguise. Anthony Wright will start at QB for Baltimore this week, and the Ravens offense seemed to flow a little bit better with Wright and the helm. Tennessee got thumped by a Steelers team that was without Jerome Bettis and Duce Staley last week, with Willie Parker running for 160 yards and Ben Roethlisberger scoring a perfect QB rating. The Titans' reward? A fired up Ravens defense that can ill-afford to fall to 0-2. I love Baltimore this week.
Straight Up: Baltimore
Against the Spread: Baltimore

The Match-up: Jacksonville (+9.0) @ Indianapolis
The Skinny: Interesting divisional match-up with the underrated Jaguars defense forced to contend with a Colts offense that hung 24 on Baltimore last week. The game could be decided by the ability of the Jags' offense to move the ball against a very good Indy D. The game will be close, but the Colts will pull away late.
Straight Up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Indianapolis

The Match-up: San Francisco (off) @ Philadelphia
The Skinny: No need to push the panic button in Philly. Yes, they lost on Monday, but they escaped without major injury (Donovan McNabb will start this week despite the bruised sternum). And even without Jeremiah Trotter and with David "Automatic" Akers missing two field goals, the Eagles were driving at the end with a chance to win the game. The Eagles are at home against San Francisco and Oakland in the next two weeks, so they'll be 2-1 on Sept. 19th.
Straight Up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia

The Match-up: Detroit (-1.5) @ Chicago
The Skinny: I told you at the beginning of this thing that I would only pick an upset where I felt it was warranted. Well, it's time. Yes, Detroit won at home last week (albeit against Green Bay, who looked absolutely awful), and the Bears lost a tight one at Washington. But I like Chicago to win at home this week.
Straight Up: Chicago
Against the Spread: Chicago

The Match-up: Minnesota (+3.0) @ Cincinnati
The Skinny: No way the Vikings go to 0-2, right? No way Daunte Culpepper has another game like that, right? If it sounds like I'm trying to convince myself, you may be right. I've got it in my head that the Vikings are the better team here, so I'm going with Minnesota.
Straight Up: Minnesota
Against the Spread: Minnesota

The Match-up: Buffalo (+2.5) @ Tampa Bay
The Skinny: The Bucs pulled off one of the Week 1 shockers, knocking off the Vikings in the Homerdome. Brian Griese continues to play well, and Carnell "Cadillac" Williams made an early statement as the rookie of the year. A good early test for Tampa's revamped offense comes on Sunday against the Bills. Tight game, but I'll go with Tampa at home.
Straight Up: Tampa Bay
Against the Spread: Tampa Bay

The Match-up: St. Louis (+1.0) @ Arizona
The Skinny: One of these NFC West powers (no, seriously) will be 0-2 after this week. St. Louis was embarrassed in San Francisco, falling behind 28-9 before rallying to only lose by three. Arizona, on the other hand, flew across the country and gave up 42 to the Giants. St. Louis has been dreadful on the road lately, but I can't bring myself to take the Cards.
Straight Up: St. Louis
Against the Spread: St. Louis

The Match-up: Atlanta (+1.0) @ Seattle
The Skinny: This line should tell me something, but I'm having a hard time getting it. The Falcons are 1-0 having just survived their Monday night battle with the Eagles, and the Seahawks lost in Jacksonville. But Seattle is favored by a point? All signs tell me to pick the 'Hawks, but I just can't bring myself to do it.
Straight Up: Atlanta
Against the Spread: Atlanta

The Match-up: Cleveland (+6.5) @ Green Bay
The Skinny: Sad to say, but this may be the battle for the top pick in the 2006 draft. Let's start with the Packers, who not only lost a game last week but lost their best WR Javon Walker for the season as well. As for the Browns, they also fell last week, and were never really in the game with Cincinnati. I won't believe the Packers really are this bad unless they do something like, I don't know, lose at home to Cleveland. No way that happens, right?
Straight Up: Green Bay
Against the Spread: Green Bay

The Match-up: Miami (+6.0) @ New York Jets
The Skinny: Dan Marino, uh, I mean Gus Frerotte led the Fish to a 34-10 stomping of the Broncos in Week 1, and now they take the air show on the road to New York, where Chad Fumble-ton and the Jets await. The Jets played hot potato with the football in Kansas City a week ago, coughing it up 6 times. They'll be better this week (because they can't really be worse), but Miami's defense keeps them in it. This could be a field goal battle, thus six points is about 4 too many for me to take the Jets.
Straight Up: New York Jets
Against the Spread: Miami

The Match-up: San Diego (+3.0) @ Denver
The Skinny: Another battle between 0-1 division foes. The Chargers hope to get a boost from the return of Antonio Gates (think he would have helped their goal line offense against Dallas last week?), and they still have LaDanian Tomlinson to hand the ball to. Denver needs a better game from Jake Plummer, who personally turned the ball over three times in the second half against Miami. This time, the line does tell me something. Denver must be favored for a reason. I like the Broncos the get into the win column as the '04 AFC West champs fall to 0-2.
Straight Up: Denver
Against the Spread: Denver

The Match-up: Kansas City (-1.5) @ Oakland
The Skinny: How many points will it take to win this game? 35? 38? 42? Who knows? The bottom line is that both of these offenses can move the ball up and down the field. The defense that can step up and make plays will determine who wins this game. Personally, I like the Chiefs for two reasons. One, they have the better defense. Two, the Raiders haven't played in a week and a half, so they may be rusty. Kansas City is the pick.
Straight Up: Kansas City
Against the Spread: Kansas City

The Match-up: New York Giants (-3.0) @ New Orleans
The Skinny: Monday Night Football, Part I kicks off at 7:30 Monday night, with the 1-0 Saints hosting the 1-0 Giants. Except that the game will be played in New York. New Orleans pulled off a big upset last week, winning in Carolina. The Giants scored two TD's on kick returns in their win over Arizona. No doubt special teams will be a focus this week. I got burned by New Orleans last week, so I hope they don't burn me again, because I'm taking the Giants on the road (sort of) over New Orleans.
Straight Up: New York Giants
Against the Spread: New York Giants

The Match-up: Washington (+6.0) @ Dallas
The Skinny: Monday Night Football, Part II goes off at 9:00, with the Cowboys hosting the Redskins. Dallas will induct Troy Aikman, Emmitt Smith, and Michael Irvin in their ring of honor prior to kick off, and here's hoping that's the highlight of the evening for Cowboys fans. Mark Brunell will start for Washington, and their defense will put pressure Drew Bledsoe. Surprise, surprise, I'm taking the 'Skins in an upset.
Straight Up: Washington
Against the Spread: Washington

The Week 1 Picks

One game into the season, and The Kid is still undefeated. Maybe I should resign now...nah. The Patriots outlasted Oakland on Thursday, and did so by 10 points, thus a win and a cover, and we're off and running. I'll try to keep the momentum going with the rest of the Week 1 picks.

The Match-up: Houston (+4.5) @ Buffalo
The Skinny: The Buffalo Bills have the good fortune of giving new quarterback J.P. Losman his first NFL start at home against the Houston Texans. This game features two of the game's most exciting young running backs, Houston's Domanick Davis and Buffalo's Willis McGahee. The difference in this one should be the Bills defense, which looks to pick up right where they left off at the end of the 2004 campaign. I like the Bills to open the J.P. Losman era with a win over Houston.
Straight Up: Buffalo
Against the Spread: Buffalo

The Match-up: Chicago (+6.0) @ Washington
The Skinny: The Redskins host the Bears in a game that features two teams with a similar profile - good defense, a lot to prove on offense. Both offenses should revolve around the running game, which leaves Washington and Clinton Portis an advantage. But the defenses should keep the game tight. The 'Skins will win it, but it will be closer than you'd think.
Straight Up: Washington
Against the Spread: Chicago

The Match-up: Cincinnati (-3.5) @ Cleveland
The Skinny: The first installment of the 2005 version of the "Battle of Ohio" goes down on Sunday. The Browns, who have not been able to rebuild since being reinvented a few years ago, but they may be on the right track by hiring defensive-minded Romeo Crennel as their head coach. The Bengals did something similar a few years ago with Marvin Lewis, and they've been respectable. Cleveland may get there, too, but they're not there yet.
Straight Up: Cincinnati
Against the Spread: Cincinnati

The Match-up: New Orleans (+7.0) @ Carolina
The Skinny: Will the New Orleans Saints, in the wake of the damage caused to their area by Hurricane Katrina, become the feel-good story of the 2005 season? Maybe, but not against a team as strong as the Carolina Panthers.
Straight Up: Carolina
Against the Spread: Carolina

The Match-up: Seattle (+3.0) @ Jacksonville
The Skinny: Jacksonville's new vertical passing game debuts at home against what looks to be an accomodating defense. Byron Leftwich should have all day to find his targets downfield, and when he can't, he'll be able to dump the ball of to Fred Taylor. The priority for Jacksonville's defense is a simple one - contain Shaun Alexander. Easier said than done, but if they can do that, they can win this game.
Straight Up: Jacksonville
Against the Spread: Jacksonville

The Match-up: New York Jets (+3.0) @ Kansas City
The Skinny: Some people are talking about the Jets as a dark horse pick to unseat the Patriots atop the AFC East, yet they're an underdog? Granted, they're on the road and Arrowhead Stadium is a tough place to play, but still. Personally, I don't see the Jets being a threat to New England. They should, however, beat Kansas City.
Straight Up: New York Jets
Against the Spread: New York Jets

The Match-up: Denver (-5.0) @ Miami
The Skinny: How dire is the quarterback situation in Miami? Well, Gus Frerotte is the starter, if that gives you any indication. On top of that, his back up is Sage Rosenfels. It could be another long year for the Fish. Jake Plummer and the Broncos will start the season off on the right foot.
Straight Up: Denver
Against the Spread: Denver

The Match-up: Tampa Bay (+6.0) @ Minnesota
The Skinny: Former division rivals hook up in the Metrodome on Sunday, and the Vikings have certainly garnered some attention from the national media, some picking them to go all the way. I do think Minnesota will be one of the best in the NFC. The Bucs, on the other hand, will not. "Culpepper to Burleson" is the new phrase that pays, and the Vikes open with a big win.
Straight Up: Minnesota
Against the Spread: Minnesota

The Match-up: Tennessee (+7.0) @ Pittsburgh
The Skinny: The Steelers finished 15-1 last season, but stumbled at the end, losing at home to the eventual-champion Patriots in the AFC title game. This season, Pittsburgh will be on a mission to finish the job, and that starts in Week 1 with former AFC power Tennessee. Injuries to Duce Staley and Jerome Bettis might be a factor against a New England or Indy, but shouldn't be against the Titans.
Straight Up: Pittsburgh
Against the Spread: Pittsburgh

The Match-up: St. Louis (-5.5) @ San Francisco
The Skinny: It's a new era in San Francisco, with new coach Mike Nolan and top draft pick Alex Smith set to debut on Sunday. The problem is, neither one of them will be on the field. St. Louis comes to town and looks strong behind QB Marc Bulger, WR's Isaac Bruce and Torry Holt, and RB Steven Jackson (who I think will have a big game). The Rams will win in a blowout.
Straight Up: St. Louis
Against the Spread: St. Louis

The Match-up: Green Bay (+3.0) @ Detroit
The Skinny: The first test for the new and improved Lions comes at home against the old and inferior Packers. The game plan to beat Detroit (as I see it, anyway) is to gang up on the run, shut down Kevin Jones, and make Joey Harrington beat you with his arm. Problem for Green Bay is they don't have the defense to execute the plan. Besides, Brett Favre seems to struggle in domes. All that said, I like the Lions to keep the Ford Field roof closed and knock off the Pack.
Straight Up: Detroit
Against the Spread: Detroit

The Match-up: Arizona (+2.5) @ New York Giants
The Skinny: Another line I don't really understand. I thought everybody was in love with the Cardinals, that they were going to win the West, and that Kurt Warner was resurrected and would lead Arizona to prominence. So how are they a dog at the mediocre-at-best Giants? I like New York in this one.
Straight Up: New York Giants
Against the Spread: New York Giants

The Match-up: Dallas (+4.5) @ San Diego
The Skinny: Pop quiz for all the new readers - how will Ant pick in this one? a) Dallas to win on the road; b) The Chargers to win by a field goal, so take the Cowboys and the points; c) San Diego, simply because they're playing Dallas. The correct answer, of course, is 'c.' If you guessed another answer, you've got problems.
Straight Up: San Diego
Against the Spread: San Diego

The Match-up: Indianapolis (-3.0) @ Baltimore
The Skinny: Perhaps the most intriguing match up of the weekend is a preview of my predicted AFC Championship game this year, with the Ravens hosting the Colts. This will be the best game of the weekend, in my estimation. and even though Indianapolis is my pick to win the AFC, something in my gut tells me that Baltimore will flat out win this game. Don't ask me why.
Straight Up: Baltimore
Against the Spread: Baltimore

The Match-up: Philadelphia (-1.5) @ Atlanta
The Skinny: In a rematch of the NFC Title game, the Eagles head to Atlanta to take on Ron Mexico and the Falcons. The good news for the Eagles is that apparently T.O. and Donovan McNabb have reconciled and have their sites set on the common goal of winning the Super Bowl. The bad news is that RB Brian Westbrook is the newest disgruntled Eagle, having broken off long-term contract talks. As always amidst the turmoil, the question is can they put the off-the-field b.s. aside and just win football games. Yes they can, and yes they will, starting with a Monday night victory over Atlanta.
Straight Up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia