The Week 4 Picks

Ever been to Vegas? In case you haven’t, it’s a pretty cool place. There are big, tall resort hotels and casinos covered in bright lights, and they’re always building more of them. It truly is an oasis in the middle of the desert. And how can they afford to keep doing this? Because of suckers like me, that’s how. As proven in the past, anyone can pick winners (and I nailed 10 of them last week, bringing my season’s record to 29-17). But those guys that set the lines do so for a reason – to make money. That’s why more often than not a 10-4 straight-up record is accompanied by a 5-9 mark against the spread.

Bye weeks this week for Chicago, Cleveland, Miami and Pittsburgh. No bye week for this guy. That said, here are the Week 4 picks.

The Match-up: Detroit (+6.5) @ Tampa Bay
The Skinny: The scorecard so far on Joey Harrington's "make or break" year? Break. After squeaking by the Packers in Week 1, the Lions looked like, well, the Lions against Chicago the week before the bye. A road trip to red-hot Tampa is imminent.
Straight up: Tampa Bay
Against the Spread: Tampa Bay

The Match-up: Seattle (+2.0) @ Washington
The Skinny: The bye week may have come at a bad time for Washington. Will the Redskins be able to rediscover the momentum they gained during the last 3:46 of the Dallas game on Monday night of Week 2? They’ll have a good chance against a Seattle team that has been abysmal on the road. But I think the ‘Skins are more of the team we saw for the first 56:14 of the Dallas game as opposed to the guys who completed the miracle comeback.
Straight up: Seattle
Against the Spread: Seattle

The Match-up: Houston (+9.5) @ Cincinnati
The Skinny: What in the name of Jack Thompson, “The Throwin’ Samoan,” is going on with the Bengals? I’m not sure if they’re as good as they look or if they’re playing against inferior teams, but the Bengals look great so far. I hope there’s still room on the Bengals bandwagon, because I’m about to climb aboard.
Straight up: Cincinnati
Against the Spread: Cincinnati

The Match-up: Denver (+4.0) @ Jacksonville
The Skinny: Jacksonville may possess the modern-day version of the ‘No Name’ defense. Their not loaded with superstars, but they play an aggressive style predicated on pressuring the quarterback and forcing turnovers. Against a guy prone to the interception like Jake Plummer, the Jags are always a solid play.
Straight up: Jacksonville
Against the Spread: Jacksonville

The Match-up: Indianapolis (-7.0) @ Tennessee
The Skinny: Seriously, Peyton Manning is still playing for the Colts, right? If you would have told me that Manning would have two TD tosses through three games, I would have guessed the Colts would be 0-3 or 1-2. But they’re 3-0 and have allowed a total of 16 points on the season. If you do that, I could be your quarterback and you’d be 3-0.
Straight up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Indianapolis

The Match-up: San Diego (+5.5) @ New England
The Skinny: There's been much said about the Patriots' ability to lose a player to injury or free agency and simply plug in an able body and continue on without missing a beat. But the loss of Rodney Harrison will be extremely hard to cope with, especially against a good running team like San Diego.
Straight up: New England
Against the Spread: San Diego

The Match-up: Buffalo (pick) @ New Orleans
The Skinny: You might as well call the Saints Willie Nelson, because they’re on the road again. This is their third game in less than three weeks. Two of the three were home games but all three will take place in three different stadiums. Figure that out. Much like the Week 1 win over Carolina where emotion carried the Saints, such will be the case in San Antonio on Sunday (especially against a Buffalo defense suddenly minus Takeo Spikes).
Straight up: New Orleans
Against the Spread: New Orleans

The Match-up: St. Louis (+3.0) @ New York Giants
The Skinny: Someone forgot to tell the Giants that they had to play two halves in San Diego last Sunday. After hanging around with the Bolts through the first 30 minutes, the Giants got bum rushed in the second and ended up losing by 22. At lease Eli survived the rabid San Diego crowd.
Straight up: New York Giants
Against the Spread: New York Giants

The Match-up: New York Jets (+7.0) @ Baltimore
The Skinny: Imagine the gambler’s delight upon reading the following sentence as it scrolled along ESPN’s Bottom line: ‘Jets QB Brooks Bollinger expected to start Sunday at Baltimore.’ Brooks, meet Ray Lewis.
Straight up: Baltimore
Against the Spread: Baltimore

The Match-up: Minnesota (+6.0) @ Atlanta
The Skinny: Sad to say that courtesy of last week's win, the 1-2 Vikings are now tied with the Chicago Bears for 2nd place in the NFC North (trailing 1-1 Detroit by mere percentage points). Luckily, if the Vikings fall to 1-3 in Atlanta on Sunday, they're probably still going to be in 2nd place. Can you sense the sarcasm?
Straight up: Atlanta
Against the Spread: Atlanta

The Match-up: Philadelphia (+2.0) @ Kansas City
The Skinny: To be perfectly honest, the line on this game scares me a little bit. It’s not often that the Eagles are underdogs, but they are this week. So does that mean I'm going to break one of my golden rules? Never.
Straight up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia

The Match-up: Dallas (+3.0) @ Oakland
The Skinny: As referenced above, I will never break one of my golden rules, therefore I'm taking the 0-3 (but much better than their record indicates) Raiders to finally break into the win column.
Straight up: Oakland
Against the Spread: Oakland

The Match-up: San Francisco (+2.5) @ Arizona
The Skinny: What a Sunday night barn-burner: 1-2 San Francisco at 0-3 Arizona. I'm sure national TV audiences will be clamoring for this one. Remember everyone saying Arizona was going to win the West? I think some guy pointed out at the beginning of the year that they weren't going to be that good…
Straight up: San Francisco
Against the Spread: San Francisco

The Match-up: Green Bay (+7.5) @ Carolina
The Skinny: An old adage applies here, and its one I’ve committed to memory because I’ve been burned by it in the past – Never bet against Brett Favre on a Monday night.
Straight up: Carolina
Against the Spread: Green Bay

The Week 3 Picks

Ah, Week 3, where wide-spread speculation about a team based merely on off-season acquisitions and potential is replaced by actual analysis of real game action. That said, here are a few quick hit observations from the first two weeks of NFL 2005:

-- A 2-0 start does not immediately grant a team “contender” status: Yes, the Bengals and Redskins have looked impressive out of the gates. No, they won’t be facing each other in Detroit on February 5th, 2006.
-- Conversely, an 0-2 record does not signify impending doom. The 2003 Philadelphia Eagles started 0-2 and still went on to win their division and reach the NFC championship game. Keep the faith, Chargers fan!
-- Has there been a more disappointing team thus far than the Minnesota Vikings? Maybe they’re not the most improved team in the league.
-- Speaking of Minnesota, Daunte Culpepper has as many TD passes this year as I do.
-- Another superstar QB whose numbers are down, Peyton Manning has only thrown two TD’s in two games. Captain Math tells us he’s on pace to finsh with 16 scoring tosses this year. I’m willing to bet my “Expert” status that he’ll end up with more than that this year.
-- Can I get a mulligan on my Offensive Rookie of the Year prediction? Through two games, Tampa Bay’s Carnell “Cadillac” Williams sure looks like the real deal.

Anyway, on to the business at hand. Last week’s records: 11-5 straight up (19-13 cumulative), 8-7-1 against the spread (16-15-1). We’re starting to feel it just in time for the first bye week of the year. So as Baltimore, Detroit, Houston and Washington sit at home, we roll on…

The Match-up: Carolina (-3.0) @ Miami
The Skinny: You can call this the Cyndi Lauper Bowl, because it features two teams that have seen both sides of the spectrum thus far. Carolina lost at home to New Orleans in Week 1, then upset the defending champion Patriots a week ago. Miami shocked everybody by stomping Denver in Nick Saban's debut, then only managed seven points in a loss to the Jets last week. So which team will show their true colors in Week 3? Get it, Cyndi Lauper, "True Colors?" Come on, people. Mix in some VH1.
Straight up: Carolina
Against the Spread: Carolina

The Match-up: New Orleans (+4.0) @ Minnesota
The Skinny: America's new team, the Saints, plays its third straight road game (don't let last week's "home" date with the Giants fool you). Say what you want about their resiliency, but the Saints have got to be tired of all this traveling. The Vikings are down, and now key players like Michael Bennett and Nate Burleson are starting to get dinged up. This is exactly the kind of game that the Vikings will win. It'll be close, but I like the Vikes to get off the schneid.
Straight up: Minnesota
Against the Spread: New Orleans

The Match-up: Jacksonville (+2.5) @ New York Jets
The Skinny: Byron Leftwich is a tough s.o.b. I was impressed by his ability to take shot after devastating shot and keep getting up and playing. Reminded me of that game back at Marshall when a couple of his linemen literally had to carry him to the line of scrimmage because he basically couldn't walk. How do you bet against a guy like that?
Straight up: Jacksonville
Against the Spread: Jacksonville

The Match-up: Oakland (+8.0) @ Philadelphia
The Skinny: Come Sunday afternoon, the Raiders could be the best 0-3 team in the league. Talk about a tough schedule out of the gate - at New England, vs. Kansas City, now at Philadelphia. I mean, that's three bona fide contenders in three weeks. My guess is that Darth Raider won't be sending Paul Tagliabue a Christmas card this year.
Straight up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia

The Match-up: Atlanta (off) @ Buffalo
The Skinny: Literally, a coin toss game. Ron Mexico is questionable with a hamstring injury, which might actually help Atlanta (seeing as Buffalo's run defense is very good and Mexico's back up, Matt Schaub, is a better passer). I think Mexico will play, but the Bills will steal a win.
Straight up: Buffalo
Against the Spread: Buffalo

The Match-up: Cincinnati (-3.0) @ Chicago
The Skinny: The match-up everyone will talk about is the explosive offense of theBengals facing the stout Bears defense. But they'll probably cancel each other out. Plain and simple, this game will be decided by the ability of the Bears to run the ball with Thomas Jones, control the clock, and keep Carson Palmer and the Cincinnati offense standing on the sidelines.
Straight up: Chicago
Against the Spread: Chicago

The Match-up: Tampa Bay (-3.5) @ Green Bay
The Skinny: I was only half-kidding when I said last week's Cleveland/Green Bay game was a battle for the first pick in next year's draft. But looking at the other teams in the league, is there a team in more trouble than the Packers? I'm guessing this isn't what Brett Favre had in mind when he signed on for this year.
Straight up: Tampa Bay
Against the Spread: Tampa Bay

The Match-up: Cleveland (+13.5) @ Indianapolis
The Skinny: If the Colts scored 55 points in this game, would you be surprised? Me neither. I'm very impressed with Indy's defense to this point in time. They sure look like a complete team, maybe the best in the AFC (sorry Pittsburgh and New England).
Straight up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Indianapolis

The Match-up: Tennessee (+6.5) @ St. Louis
The Skinny: Remember when these two teams played one of the best Super Bowls in recent memory? That was a great game. This one, most likely, will not be. St. Louis has historically been a great team at home on that turf.
Straight up: St. Louis
Against the Spread: St. Louis

The Match-up: Dallas (-6.5) @ San Francisco
The Skinny: Wasn't it fun watching the Cowboys fall asleep at the wheel last week and cough up a 13-point lead in the last 3:46 against Washington? To all you Dallas fans out there, that was Mark Brunell throwing the ball over your secondary's head. Just wanted to remind you of that.
Straight up: San Francisco
Against the Spread: San Francisco

The Match-up: Arizona (+6.5) @ Seattle
The Skinny: Always looking for new and exciting ways to lose football games, the Cardinals may have outdone themselves last week. With no time outs remaining, the Cards marched into field goal range, then Kurt Warner was sacked. Rather than spiking the ball and stopping the clock with about 20 seconds to go and perhaps kicking the tying field goal, Warner tried to call a play. The clock ran down to 7 seconds, and the Cards were flagged for a false start. The penalty carried a ten-second run-off, thus the game ended with Arizona on the short end of the score. Only the Cardinals.
Straight up: Seattle
Against the Spread: Seattle

The Match-up: New England (+3.0) @ Pittsburgh
The Skinny: I really wanted to take the Steelers, because I think they are a solid, solid football team. But then I started looking at the numbers and realized that even with last week's loss to Carolina, the Patriots are 35-5 over their last 40 games (including playoffs). Anyone recall the last time the Pats lost consecutive games? Exactly.
Straight up: New England
Against the Spread: New England

The Match-up: New York Giants (+5.5) @ San Diego
The Skinny: Eli Manning's first game in San Diego comes this Sunday, about 13 months later than Chargers fans thought when they drafted his first overall in 2004. The Giants have opened some eyes in the NFC, but it's the 0-2 Chargers who are in desperate need of a win. I do like San Diego to win at home, but I also like Eli and the Giants to keep it close throughout.
Straight up: San Diego
Against the Spread: New York Giants

The Match-up: Kansas City (+3.0) @ Denver
The Skinny: I'm having a hard time figuring the Broncos out this year. This week, I'll solicit a little help from the Vegas odds-makers. Denver, a team that was embarrassed in Miami in Week 1 and barely squeaked by San Diego a week ago is favored over 2-0 Kansas City? There has to be a reason for that.
Straight up: Denver
Against the Spread: Denver

The Week 2 Picks

Week 1 was full of surprises, to say the least. Who could have figured that Miami would stomp Denver like that? I mean, did they bring Dan Marino, Mark Duper, Mark Clayton and Mercury Morris out of retirement or something? ESPN Magazine picked the Vikings to win the Super Bowl this year, yet they get embarrassed at home by Tampa Bay? St. Louis and Carolina also fell in Week 1, meaning all three players in my suicide pool have already, well, died.

In the immortal words of former Packers coach Vince Lombardi: "What the hell's going on out here?"

When the dust all settled, all I had to show for it was an 8-8 record both ways. Not great, but with all those land mines out there, not all that bad either. Here's hoping Week 2 is much more predictable.

The Match-up: New England (-3.0) @ Carolina
The Skinny: There's always one game a week that you can go back and forth on. I really like Carolina this year, but the Patriots are consistently among the league's elite. The game is in Charlotte, but the Panthers are already down a man, with DT Kris Jenkins out for the season. Even if Carolina was 100% healthy, I'd still probably take the Pats.
Straight Up: New England
Against the Spread: New England

The Match-up: Pittsburgh (-6.0) @ Houston
The Skinny: I know Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger is questionable with a bum knee, and the prospect of Tommy Maddox starting does scare me a little bit. Not enough to make me bet against Pittsburgh and that defense, but still its not a slam dunk. So is Pittsburgh RB Willie Parker the next Jerome Bettis, or the next Amos Zereoue? To be determined, I guess.
Straight up: Pittsburgh
Against the Spread: Pittsburgh

The Match-up: Baltimore (-3.5) @ Tennessee
The Skinny: Kyle Boller's injury may end up being a blessing in disguise. Anthony Wright will start at QB for Baltimore this week, and the Ravens offense seemed to flow a little bit better with Wright and the helm. Tennessee got thumped by a Steelers team that was without Jerome Bettis and Duce Staley last week, with Willie Parker running for 160 yards and Ben Roethlisberger scoring a perfect QB rating. The Titans' reward? A fired up Ravens defense that can ill-afford to fall to 0-2. I love Baltimore this week.
Straight Up: Baltimore
Against the Spread: Baltimore

The Match-up: Jacksonville (+9.0) @ Indianapolis
The Skinny: Interesting divisional match-up with the underrated Jaguars defense forced to contend with a Colts offense that hung 24 on Baltimore last week. The game could be decided by the ability of the Jags' offense to move the ball against a very good Indy D. The game will be close, but the Colts will pull away late.
Straight Up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Indianapolis

The Match-up: San Francisco (off) @ Philadelphia
The Skinny: No need to push the panic button in Philly. Yes, they lost on Monday, but they escaped without major injury (Donovan McNabb will start this week despite the bruised sternum). And even without Jeremiah Trotter and with David "Automatic" Akers missing two field goals, the Eagles were driving at the end with a chance to win the game. The Eagles are at home against San Francisco and Oakland in the next two weeks, so they'll be 2-1 on Sept. 19th.
Straight Up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia

The Match-up: Detroit (-1.5) @ Chicago
The Skinny: I told you at the beginning of this thing that I would only pick an upset where I felt it was warranted. Well, it's time. Yes, Detroit won at home last week (albeit against Green Bay, who looked absolutely awful), and the Bears lost a tight one at Washington. But I like Chicago to win at home this week.
Straight Up: Chicago
Against the Spread: Chicago

The Match-up: Minnesota (+3.0) @ Cincinnati
The Skinny: No way the Vikings go to 0-2, right? No way Daunte Culpepper has another game like that, right? If it sounds like I'm trying to convince myself, you may be right. I've got it in my head that the Vikings are the better team here, so I'm going with Minnesota.
Straight Up: Minnesota
Against the Spread: Minnesota

The Match-up: Buffalo (+2.5) @ Tampa Bay
The Skinny: The Bucs pulled off one of the Week 1 shockers, knocking off the Vikings in the Homerdome. Brian Griese continues to play well, and Carnell "Cadillac" Williams made an early statement as the rookie of the year. A good early test for Tampa's revamped offense comes on Sunday against the Bills. Tight game, but I'll go with Tampa at home.
Straight Up: Tampa Bay
Against the Spread: Tampa Bay

The Match-up: St. Louis (+1.0) @ Arizona
The Skinny: One of these NFC West powers (no, seriously) will be 0-2 after this week. St. Louis was embarrassed in San Francisco, falling behind 28-9 before rallying to only lose by three. Arizona, on the other hand, flew across the country and gave up 42 to the Giants. St. Louis has been dreadful on the road lately, but I can't bring myself to take the Cards.
Straight Up: St. Louis
Against the Spread: St. Louis

The Match-up: Atlanta (+1.0) @ Seattle
The Skinny: This line should tell me something, but I'm having a hard time getting it. The Falcons are 1-0 having just survived their Monday night battle with the Eagles, and the Seahawks lost in Jacksonville. But Seattle is favored by a point? All signs tell me to pick the 'Hawks, but I just can't bring myself to do it.
Straight Up: Atlanta
Against the Spread: Atlanta

The Match-up: Cleveland (+6.5) @ Green Bay
The Skinny: Sad to say, but this may be the battle for the top pick in the 2006 draft. Let's start with the Packers, who not only lost a game last week but lost their best WR Javon Walker for the season as well. As for the Browns, they also fell last week, and were never really in the game with Cincinnati. I won't believe the Packers really are this bad unless they do something like, I don't know, lose at home to Cleveland. No way that happens, right?
Straight Up: Green Bay
Against the Spread: Green Bay

The Match-up: Miami (+6.0) @ New York Jets
The Skinny: Dan Marino, uh, I mean Gus Frerotte led the Fish to a 34-10 stomping of the Broncos in Week 1, and now they take the air show on the road to New York, where Chad Fumble-ton and the Jets await. The Jets played hot potato with the football in Kansas City a week ago, coughing it up 6 times. They'll be better this week (because they can't really be worse), but Miami's defense keeps them in it. This could be a field goal battle, thus six points is about 4 too many for me to take the Jets.
Straight Up: New York Jets
Against the Spread: Miami

The Match-up: San Diego (+3.0) @ Denver
The Skinny: Another battle between 0-1 division foes. The Chargers hope to get a boost from the return of Antonio Gates (think he would have helped their goal line offense against Dallas last week?), and they still have LaDanian Tomlinson to hand the ball to. Denver needs a better game from Jake Plummer, who personally turned the ball over three times in the second half against Miami. This time, the line does tell me something. Denver must be favored for a reason. I like the Broncos the get into the win column as the '04 AFC West champs fall to 0-2.
Straight Up: Denver
Against the Spread: Denver

The Match-up: Kansas City (-1.5) @ Oakland
The Skinny: How many points will it take to win this game? 35? 38? 42? Who knows? The bottom line is that both of these offenses can move the ball up and down the field. The defense that can step up and make plays will determine who wins this game. Personally, I like the Chiefs for two reasons. One, they have the better defense. Two, the Raiders haven't played in a week and a half, so they may be rusty. Kansas City is the pick.
Straight Up: Kansas City
Against the Spread: Kansas City

The Match-up: New York Giants (-3.0) @ New Orleans
The Skinny: Monday Night Football, Part I kicks off at 7:30 Monday night, with the 1-0 Saints hosting the 1-0 Giants. Except that the game will be played in New York. New Orleans pulled off a big upset last week, winning in Carolina. The Giants scored two TD's on kick returns in their win over Arizona. No doubt special teams will be a focus this week. I got burned by New Orleans last week, so I hope they don't burn me again, because I'm taking the Giants on the road (sort of) over New Orleans.
Straight Up: New York Giants
Against the Spread: New York Giants

The Match-up: Washington (+6.0) @ Dallas
The Skinny: Monday Night Football, Part II goes off at 9:00, with the Cowboys hosting the Redskins. Dallas will induct Troy Aikman, Emmitt Smith, and Michael Irvin in their ring of honor prior to kick off, and here's hoping that's the highlight of the evening for Cowboys fans. Mark Brunell will start for Washington, and their defense will put pressure Drew Bledsoe. Surprise, surprise, I'm taking the 'Skins in an upset.
Straight Up: Washington
Against the Spread: Washington

The Week 1 Picks

One game into the season, and The Kid is still undefeated. Maybe I should resign now...nah. The Patriots outlasted Oakland on Thursday, and did so by 10 points, thus a win and a cover, and we're off and running. I'll try to keep the momentum going with the rest of the Week 1 picks.

The Match-up: Houston (+4.5) @ Buffalo
The Skinny: The Buffalo Bills have the good fortune of giving new quarterback J.P. Losman his first NFL start at home against the Houston Texans. This game features two of the game's most exciting young running backs, Houston's Domanick Davis and Buffalo's Willis McGahee. The difference in this one should be the Bills defense, which looks to pick up right where they left off at the end of the 2004 campaign. I like the Bills to open the J.P. Losman era with a win over Houston.
Straight Up: Buffalo
Against the Spread: Buffalo

The Match-up: Chicago (+6.0) @ Washington
The Skinny: The Redskins host the Bears in a game that features two teams with a similar profile - good defense, a lot to prove on offense. Both offenses should revolve around the running game, which leaves Washington and Clinton Portis an advantage. But the defenses should keep the game tight. The 'Skins will win it, but it will be closer than you'd think.
Straight Up: Washington
Against the Spread: Chicago

The Match-up: Cincinnati (-3.5) @ Cleveland
The Skinny: The first installment of the 2005 version of the "Battle of Ohio" goes down on Sunday. The Browns, who have not been able to rebuild since being reinvented a few years ago, but they may be on the right track by hiring defensive-minded Romeo Crennel as their head coach. The Bengals did something similar a few years ago with Marvin Lewis, and they've been respectable. Cleveland may get there, too, but they're not there yet.
Straight Up: Cincinnati
Against the Spread: Cincinnati

The Match-up: New Orleans (+7.0) @ Carolina
The Skinny: Will the New Orleans Saints, in the wake of the damage caused to their area by Hurricane Katrina, become the feel-good story of the 2005 season? Maybe, but not against a team as strong as the Carolina Panthers.
Straight Up: Carolina
Against the Spread: Carolina

The Match-up: Seattle (+3.0) @ Jacksonville
The Skinny: Jacksonville's new vertical passing game debuts at home against what looks to be an accomodating defense. Byron Leftwich should have all day to find his targets downfield, and when he can't, he'll be able to dump the ball of to Fred Taylor. The priority for Jacksonville's defense is a simple one - contain Shaun Alexander. Easier said than done, but if they can do that, they can win this game.
Straight Up: Jacksonville
Against the Spread: Jacksonville

The Match-up: New York Jets (+3.0) @ Kansas City
The Skinny: Some people are talking about the Jets as a dark horse pick to unseat the Patriots atop the AFC East, yet they're an underdog? Granted, they're on the road and Arrowhead Stadium is a tough place to play, but still. Personally, I don't see the Jets being a threat to New England. They should, however, beat Kansas City.
Straight Up: New York Jets
Against the Spread: New York Jets

The Match-up: Denver (-5.0) @ Miami
The Skinny: How dire is the quarterback situation in Miami? Well, Gus Frerotte is the starter, if that gives you any indication. On top of that, his back up is Sage Rosenfels. It could be another long year for the Fish. Jake Plummer and the Broncos will start the season off on the right foot.
Straight Up: Denver
Against the Spread: Denver

The Match-up: Tampa Bay (+6.0) @ Minnesota
The Skinny: Former division rivals hook up in the Metrodome on Sunday, and the Vikings have certainly garnered some attention from the national media, some picking them to go all the way. I do think Minnesota will be one of the best in the NFC. The Bucs, on the other hand, will not. "Culpepper to Burleson" is the new phrase that pays, and the Vikes open with a big win.
Straight Up: Minnesota
Against the Spread: Minnesota

The Match-up: Tennessee (+7.0) @ Pittsburgh
The Skinny: The Steelers finished 15-1 last season, but stumbled at the end, losing at home to the eventual-champion Patriots in the AFC title game. This season, Pittsburgh will be on a mission to finish the job, and that starts in Week 1 with former AFC power Tennessee. Injuries to Duce Staley and Jerome Bettis might be a factor against a New England or Indy, but shouldn't be against the Titans.
Straight Up: Pittsburgh
Against the Spread: Pittsburgh

The Match-up: St. Louis (-5.5) @ San Francisco
The Skinny: It's a new era in San Francisco, with new coach Mike Nolan and top draft pick Alex Smith set to debut on Sunday. The problem is, neither one of them will be on the field. St. Louis comes to town and looks strong behind QB Marc Bulger, WR's Isaac Bruce and Torry Holt, and RB Steven Jackson (who I think will have a big game). The Rams will win in a blowout.
Straight Up: St. Louis
Against the Spread: St. Louis

The Match-up: Green Bay (+3.0) @ Detroit
The Skinny: The first test for the new and improved Lions comes at home against the old and inferior Packers. The game plan to beat Detroit (as I see it, anyway) is to gang up on the run, shut down Kevin Jones, and make Joey Harrington beat you with his arm. Problem for Green Bay is they don't have the defense to execute the plan. Besides, Brett Favre seems to struggle in domes. All that said, I like the Lions to keep the Ford Field roof closed and knock off the Pack.
Straight Up: Detroit
Against the Spread: Detroit

The Match-up: Arizona (+2.5) @ New York Giants
The Skinny: Another line I don't really understand. I thought everybody was in love with the Cardinals, that they were going to win the West, and that Kurt Warner was resurrected and would lead Arizona to prominence. So how are they a dog at the mediocre-at-best Giants? I like New York in this one.
Straight Up: New York Giants
Against the Spread: New York Giants

The Match-up: Dallas (+4.5) @ San Diego
The Skinny: Pop quiz for all the new readers - how will Ant pick in this one? a) Dallas to win on the road; b) The Chargers to win by a field goal, so take the Cowboys and the points; c) San Diego, simply because they're playing Dallas. The correct answer, of course, is 'c.' If you guessed another answer, you've got problems.
Straight Up: San Diego
Against the Spread: San Diego

The Match-up: Indianapolis (-3.0) @ Baltimore
The Skinny: Perhaps the most intriguing match up of the weekend is a preview of my predicted AFC Championship game this year, with the Ravens hosting the Colts. This will be the best game of the weekend, in my estimation. and even though Indianapolis is my pick to win the AFC, something in my gut tells me that Baltimore will flat out win this game. Don't ask me why.
Straight Up: Baltimore
Against the Spread: Baltimore

The Match-up: Philadelphia (-1.5) @ Atlanta
The Skinny: In a rematch of the NFC Title game, the Eagles head to Atlanta to take on Ron Mexico and the Falcons. The good news for the Eagles is that apparently T.O. and Donovan McNabb have reconciled and have their sites set on the common goal of winning the Super Bowl. The bad news is that RB Brian Westbrook is the newest disgruntled Eagle, having broken off long-term contract talks. As always amidst the turmoil, the question is can they put the off-the-field b.s. aside and just win football games. Yes they can, and yes they will, starting with a Monday night victory over Atlanta.
Straight Up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia

Sept. 8th - Oakland @ New England

Before I get to the game, I feel the need to review a few caveats that I live by when it comes to making the picks.

For starters, I am not sanctioned by the NFL, which means I need not be impartial. In other words, I will pick the Eagles straight up and against the spread every week regardless of opponent. Conversely, I will never, EVER pick Dallas. Ever. Under no circumstances. It's a formula that has worked for me in the past. Just trust me.

Speaking of trusting me, the picks are intended for entertainment purposes only. If you choose to use this information as a basis to feed your gambling habit, don't come crying to me when you lose. I may be an "Expert," but I'm not perfect.

Finally, I don't employ gimmicks like some of the writers at other publications do. Some of these dopes pick a "Lock of the Week," or an "Upset Special." Personally, I think all of my picks are locks (or else I wouldn't pick them). And some weeks, there may be an upset I like, while others there may not. I'm not going to pick an upset just to satisfy a weekly quota.

All that said, the 2005-06 season is less than 48 hours from commencement, kicking off with...

The Match-up: Oakland (+7.5) @ New England
The Skinny: The NFL's newest tradition is having the defending Super Bowl champions open at home on the Thursday of opening weekend. And so it's the Patriots (again) hosting the rebuilt offense of the Oakland Raiders. Oakland's biggest moves in the off-season were on the offensive side of the ball, trading for enigmatic WR Randy Moss and signing RB Lamont Jordan as a free agent. Their defense, however, is still suspect. New England will attempt to carry on minus offensive coordinator Charlie Weis (now the head coach at Notre Dame) and defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel (manning the sidelines in Cleveland). They also lost LB Tedy Bruschi, who suffered a stroke and will not play this year. Not to go all Stephen A. Smith on you, but they still have Tom Brady, and quite frankly...ah, let's not go there. The key to this game will be the ability of the Patriots defense to neutralize Oakland's big play ability. Bill Belichick is one of the best game-plan coaches in the NFL, and he has had success in shutting down high-scoring offenses (i.e., the Indianapolis Colts). Corey Dillon will run for about 120 yards and 2 TD's and the Patriots will open their title defense with a win over the Raiders.
Straight Up: New England
Against the Spread: New England

Carve 'em in Stone - The Predictions

Division Winners
AFC East: New England
AFC North: Baltimore
AFC South: Indianapolis
AFC West: San Diego
Wild Cards: Buffalo, Pittsburgh

NFC East: Philadelphia
NFC North: Minnesota
NFC South: Carolina
NFC West: St. Louis
Wild Cards: Atlanta, Dallas

AFC Championship
Indianapolis over Baltimore - This is finally the year that the Colts get over the hump. Their offense is still as explosive as ever, and they've done enough to improve their defense via the draft and free agency (including recently added DT Corey Simon) to make them the most complete team in the conference. Peyton Manning finally sheds the "can't win the big game" label, and Indianapolis wins the AFC.

NFC Championship
Philadelphia over Carolina - The Eagles have been one of the most consistent teams in the entire league. Despite all of the off-the-field drama that plagues this team in the off-season, they are still the best team in the NFC. Barring an injury to one of the big three (McNabb, T.O., or Westbrook), the Eagles will return to the Super Bowl.

Super Bowl XL
Philadelphia over Indianapolis (If you're surprised, you're obviously new to this) - Playing the role of the Patriots, the Eagles defense manages to frustrate Manning enough, applying pressure and forcing him to throw two costly interceptions. McNabb hits Owens for a 46 yard TD to seal the deal for Philly. Afterwards, Owens and McNabb hug, then McNabb accepts the super Bowl MVP trophy before barfing up a lung. Meanwhile, Owens strips down to a camouflage tank top and does sit-ups on the Ford Field podium.

Individual Awards
Most Valuable Player: Donovan McNabb, Philadelphia Eagles - I struggled with this one for a long time. The easy pick would have been Peyton Manning, but I don't know if he'll have numbers like he did a year ago (which voters might view as a down year). Instead, I'll go with the guy who I want to win the award, and '5' is my guy. (Honorable Mention - Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts; LaDanian Tomlinson, San Diego Chargers)

Coach of the Year: Andy Reid, Philadelphia Eagles - Reid's reward for managing to keep the Eagles on track throughout the whole circus atmosphere surrounding his team garners him his second coach of the year award. (Honorable Mention - Jon Fox, Carolina Panthers; Jim Mora, Jr., Atlanta Falcons; Mike Mularkey, Buffalo Bills)

Offensive Player of the Year: LaDanian Tomlinson, San Diego Chargers - Tomlinson said before the season that his goal for the 2005 season was 2,200 rushing yards. I'm not saying he'll get there, but he is the man. (Honorable Mention: Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts; Terrell Owens, Philadelphia Eagles)

Defensive Player of the Year: Julius Peppers, Carolina Panthers - Peppers has won the award before, but looks stronger and yet somehow faster this season. He can rush the passer, stop the run, or cover a tight end or a back out of the backfield. (Honorable Mention: Ray Lewis, Baltimore Ravens; Ed Reed, Baltimore Ravens; Takeo Spikes, Buffalo Bills)

Offensive Rookie of the Year: J.J. Arrington, Arizona Cardinals - He wasn't the first running back selected in the draft (he wasn't second or third, either). But he may be the best of the bunch, and he'll start right away in Dennis Green's three wide receiver offense, which means Arrington should make the biggest splash. (Honorable Mention: Mike Williams, Detroit Lions; Carnell Williams, Tampa Bay Buccaneers)

Defensive Rookie of the Year: Derrick Johnson, Kansas City Chiefs - Like Arrington, Johnson will start immediately. He's a fast, sideline-to-sideline LB who has perfected a tackling technique designed to force fumbles. He'll make a name for himself quickly. (Honorable Mention - Thomas Davis, Carolina Panthers; Antrel Rolle, Arizona Cardinals)

Sleeper Team: Buffalo Bills - Prior to Rex Grossman's injury, I had the Chicago Bears in this spot. And I know J.P. Losman isn't exactly seasoned, but I give the Bills the nod because of the talent around Losman. McGahee, Moulds and Evans comprise a solid supporting staff, thus I think the Bills will surprise a few people and make the playoffs this year.

2005-06 NFC Preview

NFC East
Dallas Cowboys - Dallas followed up their surprising 10-6 record and run to the 2003 postseason with an equally surprising crash down to Earth, finishing 6-10 a year ago. Jerry Jones is giving Bill Parcells the power to play his system with his players. Accordingly, Parcells immediately switched the defense to the 3-4 scheme, and drafted for defensive speed. He also added QB Drew Bledsoe who is only slightly more mobile than the departed Vinny Testaverde (only Houston's David Carr has been sacked more often in the last two years than Bledsoe). There's only one real pass-catching threat, TE Jason Witten. Like most Parcells-teams, the focus on offense is on the running game, led by the promising RB Julius Jones. But this team will only go as far as the revamped defense will take them. And as much as it pains me to say this, the Cowboys will most likely find their way back into the playoffs this season.
Fantasy Focus - It's hard for me to speculate, since one of my rules for fantasy football is not to take anyone from the Cowboys (if you know me, you understand). For those of you impartial gamers, take Jones and Witten. Dallas' defense is also a safe play. If you draft Bledsoe, be sure to draft his concrete sneakers as well.

New York Giants - Year two of the Eli Manning Era in New York has not gotten off to a smooth start, as Manning injured his elbow in the second pre-season game, had an MRI (results negative) and hasn't played since. Whether or not he can go in the opener remains to be seen. The Giants did add some parts in the off-season, notably WR Plaxico Burress and LB Antonio Pierce. They also expect a healthy TE Jeremy Shockey to contribute as he did in his rookie campaign. RB Tiki Barber had the best season of his career in 2004, and he's primed for another big year. On defense, DE Osi Umenyiora will pick up where Michael Strahan leaves off, and Pierce is a tackling machine. But the Giants still have holes, notably along the offensive line and in the secondary. All told, the Giants may be better, but they still won't crack the playoff field for at least another year.
Fantasy Focus - Manning should only be taken in case if emergency. If his elbow is damaged, either Tim Hasselbeck or Jesse Palmer will start. That said, the Giants receivers are gambles. The best bet may be Shockey, who could serve as Manning's security blanket. Barber is versatile and should be among the top fantasy backs in the game.

Philadelphia Eagles - After finally breaking through the NFC Championship barrier and reaching the Super Bowl for the first time in 24 years, the Eagles seek to avoid the jinx of prior Super Bowl also-rans that took severe steps backwards following their loss in the big game. The birds had their share of unrest in the nest this off-season. To recap: DE Jerome McDougle was car-jacked and shot in Miami and will not be ready when the season opens; RB Correll Buckhalter and WR Todd Pinkston were lost for the season due to training camp injuries; RB Brian Westbrook held out of camp and is seeking a long-term deal (on par with those signed by New Orleans' Deuce McAllister and Houston's Domanick Davis); DT Corey Simon rebuked his "Franchise" tag, failed to sign his tender and was given his outright release. Oh, and the quarterback and his top wide receiver don't speak to one another (as you might have heard). Despite all the nonsense that has gone on, this is still the best team in the NFC when they line up on Sunday. McNabb and Owens don't need to talk to play like professionals (witness the first half of the Cincinnati game in week 3 of the pre-season, where McNabb threw for 256 yards and 3 TD's in the first half with 131 of those yards and a score courtesy of T.O.). The defense may be even better this year, featuring "The Freak," DE Jevon Kearse, stud MLB Jeremiah Trotter, and the best secondary in the NFL. If the Eagles can avoid letting off-field distractions disrupt their chemistry on the field, the Eagles can win the NFC again and reach their second consecutive Super Bowl.
Fantasy Focus - Finally having a deep threat on the outside led to McNabb having a career year (31 TD's, only 8 INT's). Expect big numbers from McNabb and Owens this year. Westbrook is not a between-the-tackles runner, but may be the Eagles' most dangerous weapon and is a threat to break a long TD every time he touches the ball. Don't sleep on WR Greg Lewis, elevated to #2 by Pinkston's injury. Lewis has great speed and hands. TE L.J. Smith is one of McNabb's primary red-zone targets. K David Akers is automatic.

Washington Redskins - I thought Joe Gibbs returning to the Redskins sideline was supposed to be the piece of the puzzle that returned the 'Skins to prominence. Maybe not. Gibbs went out and got RB Clinton Portis to be his featured back, which was a good move. But he also juggled QB's, then had to deal with injuries along the O-Line. Needless to say, the offense did not fare well. It's a shame, because their defense was among the league's best. For this year, the Redskins acquired smaller, faster WR's in Santana Moss and David Patten. The line is healthy, and they still have Portis and a great defense. They also still have the same lingering question at QB. They did draft Auburn's Jason campbell in the first round, but Gibbs is going to go with Patrick Ramsey. If he can't get the job done, neither will the Redskins.
Fantasy Focus - Portis should benefit from a healthy line, but unless he has a great season, he'll continue to be tagged as a guy that was the product of Denver's system. Other than Portis, cansider H-back/TE Chris Cooley, who always seems to be a factor around the goal line. Washington's defense is a great pick.

NFC North
Chicago Bears - For the second straight season, the Bears will have to deal with an injury to starting QB Rex Grossman. Grossman broke his ankle in the pre-season, a year after blowing his knee. This year, instead of starting guys like Jonathan Quinn, Chad Hutchinson, and Craig Krenzel (who combined for 8 TD's and 12 INT's), rookie Kyle Orton will be under center. The Bears drafted RB Cedric Benson 4th overall and signed free-agent WR Muhsin Muhammad, but it will really all come down to Orton and the defense (which is actually pretty good). If Orton can take care of the football and minimize his mistakes (loosely translated, hand the ball to RB Thomas Jones), the Bears could open some eyes. But I wouldn't bet the farm on it.
Fantasy Focus - Slim pickings off the Bears roster in terms of fantasy players. Jones had decent numbers last year, and thanks to Benson's holdout will be the man again this year. Muhammad was in a contract year last year and likely will not duplicate his '04 numbers. I'd only take Orton if guys like J.P. Losman and Eli Manning were off the board.

Detroit Lions - The Lions became the first team in NFL history to draft a wide receiver in the top 10 of three consecutive drafts. If Charles Rogers can stay healthy, if Roy Williams plays an entire season the way he played the first half of 2004, and if Mike Williams can shake off the rust of not having played a meaningful game in well over a year, the Lions can trot three good young pass catchers out there. Think this is a make-or-break year for Joey Harrington? Hell, Kyle Boller thinks its now or never for Harrington, who also has a yound stud in the backfield in RB Kevin Jones. Jeff Garcia's broken leg complicates matters in case Harrington struggles, but a lot of people think this young offense can carry Detroit to the playoffs. I do not happen to be one of those people, but that's just me.
Fantasy Focus - Of the WR's, Roy Williams may be the safest pick. Rogers has had two major injuries in two years, and Mike Williams (who will be sensational someday), is coming off the long layoff. Jones had a great second half and was an injury away from being the Rookie of the Year last year (as some guy predicted he would be). Harrington could have huge numbers, or he could flame out like a bottle rocket. Proceed with caution. K Jason Hanson, entering his 14th year with the Lions, is still among the game's best.

Green Bay Packers - Stop me if you've heard this before - Green Bay's offense featuring big names like QB Brett Favre, RB Ahman Green, and WR Javon Walker is very, very good, but their defense is their downfall. It's been the same old story for the last few years in Green Bay, and again they didn't do anything to improve the D. They let S Darren Sharper, aging but still an emotional leader, go to division-rival Minnesota via free agency. Their starting corners are Joey Thomas (who?) and Al "P.I." Harris, and their going with a rookie (Nick Collins) at safety. They also lost starting guards Marco Rivera and Mike Wahle and will play behind a rebuilt O-Line. In a division with the Bears and Lions, the Packers were usually a guarantee to finish first or second in the North. This year, their defense could land them in the cellar.
Fantasy Focus - Ahman Green did not have a typical Ahman Green season in 2004, and looks to boucne back. Favre, on the other hand, had a great year (4,088 yds, 30 TD's). Can he do it again? Walker is playing for a big contract next year, which should mean big numbers again. If you even contemplate taking the Packers defense, you'd better borrow Onterrio Smith's Whizzinator so you pass your next random drug test.

Minnesota Vikings - Minnesota is a chic pick to win the NFC this year, and I cetainly understand why. They did unload talented WR Randy Moss, but that may be addition by subtraction. They drafted a speed burner (Troy Williamson) as his replacement, and still have emerging young star Nate Burleson on the outside. If not for Peyton Manning having the year he did, Daunte Culpepper would have been the MVP last year (again, as predicted by some guy). Michael Bennett his finally healthy, as are Culpepper-favorites TE's Jim Kleinsasser and Jermaine Wiggins. Unlike their division-rivals from Green Bay, the Vikes addressed their defensive holes by adding run-stuffing DT Pat Williams, LB's Sam Cowart and Napolean Harris, shut-down CB Fred Smoot and S Darren Sharper. They also drafted DE Erasmus James, who has the Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila potential. The Vikings are a good pick to de-throne the Eagles in the NFC this year.
Fantasy Focus - Culpepper's numbers (4,717 yards, 39 TD's) were outstanding, and he didn't have a healthy Moss for the whole season (which would explain why the Vikings felt he was expendable). Last year's leading rusher, RB Onterrio Smith, was suspended for the year, meaning Bennett will have to carry the load. Minnesota's defense is much improved and would be a solid play week in and week out.

NFC South
Atlanta Falcons - Jim Mora Jr. coached the Falcons all the way to the NFC Championship game last year, and as such expectations are for this team to take the next step this year. QB Michael Vick (to be referred to hereafter as "Ron Mexico") may not be the best QB in the league, but he is the best athlete. Mexico's running ability, plus that of RB's Warrick Dunn and T.J. Duckett, give the Falcons a great ground game. Their defense was good in 2004 and looks better in 2005 thanks to the addition of LB Ed Hartwell, formerly of the Ravens. The air attack was Atlanta's downfall in the championship game, and Mexico will have to be a better thrower if the Falcons are going to advance to the Super Bowl.
Fantasy Focus - Lots to choose from at this fantasy buffet - Mexico accounted for 3,215 yards (902 rushing) and 17 total TD's in '04, Dunn ran for over 1,000 yards for the third time in his career (and added close to 300 yards receiving), and Duckett averaged 4.9 yards per carry and pounded 8 TD's. The best Falcons fantasy picks may be TE Alge Crumpler (774 yards, 6 TD's) and the improved defense.

Carolina Panthers - The 2005 Panthers win this year's "Dennis Rodman, Charles Barkley" award. Why? Because they're going to rebound from last year's injury-plagued 7-9 campaign in a big way. What befell the 2004 Panthers may have only made them more resilient for the 2005 season. Jake Delhomme proved he is no flash in the pan, as he carried this team at times last year when RB's Stephen Davis and DeShaun Foster were lost to injury. Also lost was top WR Steve Smith, who broke his leg in the '04 season opener. The Panthers' stellar defensive line had to deal an injury to DT Kris Jenkins. Lost in Carolina's 7-9 record is the fact that they started 1-7. Captain Math tells us that they finished 6-2 and were still in the playoff hunt right up to the end. There is reason for optimism this year despite the loss of WR Muhsin Muhammad. Davis, Foster, Smith and Jenkins are all back. The Panthers drafted LB/S hybrid Thomas Davis out of Georgia, who could be the defensive rookie of the year. And, they added WR Rod Gardner, a tall receiver to complement the speed of Smith and the youngster Keary Colbert, who saw a fair amount of playing time as a rookie. Carolina is one of the best teams in the entire league.
Fantasy Focus - Delhomme's 2004 numbers (3,889 yds, 29 TD's) were a by-product of the fact that Davis and Foster were both out. The offense should have better balance in 2005, thus Delhomme's numbers figure to decline. Foster is a home-run threat, but he's often injured. Davis is the horse, but is he 100%? Smith looks as fast as ever, but Gardner and Colbert are good red-zone targets. Don't forget about old faithful, K Jon Kasay. Carolina's defense is among the best in the NFC.

New Orleans Saints - The Saints are an enigma, personified by their QB Aaron Brooks. The rap on both is very similar - lots of talent, underachieved to this point in time, need to live up to potential. Brooks was an anonymous member of the famed QB Class of 1999 (featuring Tim Couch, Donovan McNabb, Akili Smith, Daunte Culpepper, and Cade McNown). Brooks has started 69 straight games for the Saints, threw for over 3,800 yards and 21 TD's in 2004, and he's clutch (did you know Brooks engineered five 4th quarter or overtime game-winning drives in 2004? Me neither). There's a lot talent around Brooks (RB Deuce McAllister, WR's Joe Horn and Donte' Stallworth), yet New Orleans has only made it to the post-season once during his tenure. They've drafted heavily for defense over the last few years, but they'll need results on the field or the talent on offense will again go to waist. As if they didn't have enough to deal with, the Saints will play their home games in San Antonio, Baton Rouge or Birmingham, after the Superdome was damaged during Hurricane Katrina.
Fantasy Focus - In his four full seasons as a starter, Brooks has never thrown for less than 3,500 yds and 21 TD's. Bank on those kind of stats again. McAllister had a down year in '04 but signed a big deal in the off-season. Horn established career-highs in yards and TD's last season, so there's likely only one way to go from there. New Orleans' defense is better, but still average overall.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers - The once-mighty Bucs have crashed hard after winning Super Bowl XXXVII, going a combined 12-20 in the two seasons since. While there is still some talent on defense (namely DE Simeon Rice, LB Derrick Brooks, and CB Ronde Barber), Jon Gruden's offense has undergone some major changes, and Chucky will rely on a young corps to carry them. Veteran Brian Griese will start at QB, but that may be short-lived as Chris Simms appears poised to unseat him. Rookie RB Carnell "Cadillac" Williams is atop the depth chart at running back. And, second year man WR Michael Clayton looks to build on his promising rookie campaign. Other than the aforementioned, the Bucs offense is old. Joey Galloway, Ike Hilliard, Mike Alstott. I've seen younger faces on cash. The Bucs will have a tough go of things in the top-heavy NFC South, and will extend their playoff drought to three years and running.
Fantasy Focus - As noted earlier when speaking of Williams' college teammate Ronnie Brown, rookie RB's are always a gamble, so tread lightly with "Cadillac." Ditto Brian Griese, who is a drunken stupor and a hilly driveway away from backing up Simms. The new defensive line (featuring Minnesota cast-off Chris Hovan and a healthy Anthony McFarland) is solid, but they don't have that aura of invincibility they used to.

NFC West
Arizona Cardinals - Everybody seems to think that the Arizona Cardinals will win the NFC West this season. Granted, they will be better, but I think Cardinals myopians think they signed Kurt Warner 1999-2001 and not Kurt Warner 2002-2004. Wanrer is surrounded by young talent in rookie RB J.J. Arrington and stud WR's Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald. In addition, the defense is better than you think featuring guys like DE Bert Berry (14.5 sacks in 2004), LB Karlos Dansby (60 tackles, 5 sacks), and rookie CB Antrel Rolle. But the reality is that Warner has thrown 10 TD's over the last three seasons. And I don't care how good your defense is, if your quarterback averages 3 TD's per season, you're going to lose more than you win.
Fantasy Focus - Arrington will start as a rookie, and may be the focus on offense if and when Warner struggles. Boldin and Fitzgerald have the ability to take over a game. As stated, the Cards' defense will be better than average, and will rack up some fantasy stats.

St. Louis Rams - Now, the team that should be touted as the favorite in the West (at least in my estimation), is the St. Louis Rams. Warner's successor in St. Louis, Marc Bulger, has had decent numbers and led the Rams to the playoffs in each of the last two seasons. And with guys like Marshall Faulk, Steven Jackson, Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce behind him, its easy to see why. The Rams, even in their glory years, were an offensive-minded team that tried to out-score their opponents, and it worked for a stretch. But the Rams defense is suspect, and if they can't get pressure on the quarterback via DT Jimmy Kennedy and DE Leonard "DUI" Little, their secondary can (and most liekly will) be exposed as the team's weak spot. For some reason, I still think the Rams should win the West.
Fantasy Focus - Jackson will start at RB this year, and he looked great in the pre-season. Everybody talks about T.O., Randy Moss, and Marvin Harrison being the best WR in the NFL. While one of them may be the best, "Big Game" Holt is easily the the most consistent (5 straight 1,300+ yard seasons). Bulger's interception total dropped from 22 in 2003 to 14 in 2004, and if he continues to improve in that regard, he'll be a top-10 fantasy QB. The defense will give up too many points than a fantsy owner would like. K Jeff Wilkins is among the most accurate in the league.

San Francisco 49ers - The rebuilding continues for the 49ers, with many new faces in key places. New Head Coach Mike Nolan brings a Super Bowl ring from his days on the Ravens coaching staff. The Niners drafted Utah's Alex Smith first overall in the April draft, and they expect him to play a lot this year. Also new is the 3-4 defensive scheme, which should open up the field for talented DE/LB Julian Peterson to become a big playmaker. But despite the changes, San Francisco is still a long, long way from home in terms of returning to the promience of 49ers teams of old.
Fantasy Focus - At present, Tim Rattay is listed as the starting quarterback, but don't expect him to play the full season. RB Kevan Barlow and TE Eric Johnson are probably the two biggest contributors on offense, although WR Arnaz Battle has blazing speed and could factor into scoring on punt and kick returns as well as on offense. As mentioned, aside from Peterson, the defense lacks impact players.

Seattle Seahawks - I wonder why not many people were giving the Seahawks a chance to defend their division title. After all, RB Shaun Alexander is back (for this season, anyway), and he's one of the best in the business. QB Matt Hasselbeck has established himself after a couple of solid years, and his top target, WR Darrell Jackson returns as well. Maybe it has something to do with the defense, which is very young at LB and in the secondary. Maybe its because their other starting WR, Koren Robinson, was suspended for the year and subsequently checked himself into rehab. I can't put a finger on it, but I don't get a good vibe coming out of Seattle this year either. They may prove me completely wrong, but then I won't be the only one.
Fantasy Focus - Alexander is a flat-out, top-shelf fantasy back (he's rushed for 60 TD's over the last 4 seasons), and this may be his best year ever, as he's playing for a long-term deal next year. Whether that will be in Seattle or someplace else remains to be seen. Hasselbeck should get the chance to throw a lot, since the 'Hawks look to be playing a lot of catch up. Jackson had a bad case of the dropsies a year ago, but is still a perenial 1,000 yard receiver.

2005-06 AFC Preview

This is the first of a three-part 2005-06 season preview. Below are team capsules for the 16 AFC teams (including a fantasy focus section). Part two will be the NFC preview, and part three will be predictions of division, conference, and Super Bowl winners as well as individual award winners. It all leads into the not exactly world famous "Expert" NFL picks, starting with the Raiders and Patriots on September 8th.

AFC East
Buffalo Bills - One of the more surprising teams in the AFC last season, the Bills look to make their mark by contending for the playoffs this year behind QB J.P. Losman. The Bills cut ties with last year's starter, Drew Bledsoe, handing the reigns to Losman, the former first round pick out of Tulane. There are weapons around him on offense, including RB Willis McGahee and WR's Eric Moulds and Lee Evans. Buffalo's defense will miss run-stuffing DT Pat Williams, but should still be among one of the league's top units. In fact, their biggest nemesis may be their schedule, as Buffalo faces potentially dangerous opponents Atlanta, Kansas City, Carolina, and Denver at home and Oakland and San Diego on the road. Plus, division foes New England and the New York Jets will provide stern tests for the young Bills. If Buffalo is going to be in the playoffs, they're going to have to earn it.
Fantasy Focus - McGahee is poised for a breakout year, but teams will key on him until Losman proves he can beat them with his arm. Moulds is getting on in years, but Evans is a speed burner who knows how to find the end zone. Buffalo's defense and special teams should score well again.

Miami Dolphins - Lots of changes to talk about with last year's AFC East doormat. Nick Saban is in as head coach, and he's named Gus Frerotte his starting QB. The Dolphins drafted RB Ronnie Brown second overall, and the running game could get a boost from a an old familiar face, Ricky Williams, who will miss the first four weeks of the season due to a drug suspension (shocking, isn't it?). What will the rest of the offense bring to the table? Their receivers aren't all bad, with Chris Chambers and a finally healthy David Boston. And, TE Randy McMichael may be Frerotte's go-to guy if he can stop beating his wife and stay on the field. Defensive mainstays Jason Taylor and Zach Thomas are back, but could wear down if forced to play 35-40 minutes a game. The Fish will be better than last year (which isn't really saying much), but they're still not playoff material.
Fantasy Focus - It's hard to put a lot of credence into rookie RB's so I'd avoid Brown like the plague. Chambers and McMichael may be decent, but do you trust Gus Frerotte to get them the ball? Me neither. If you draft their defense, you may be trading them or waiving them by week 8. That leaves, ummm...Olindo Mare?

New England Patriots - For the first time in recent memory, there are a lot of unanswered questions surrounding the two-time defending world champions. How will the Pats fare without offensive coordinator Charlie Weis and defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel? Who will pick up the slack for Tedy Bruschi and Ty Law? Has the rest of the AFC started to catch up? All of these issues need to be addressed if the Patriots are going to become the first three-peat Super Bowl champions. The good news for New England is that they still have Bill Belichick, QB Tom Brady, RB Corey Dillon, and WR Deion Branch. And, if there's a team in the league that can roll with the punches, interchange players and move on without missing a beat, it's New England. There's a reason no team has ever won three consecutive Super Bowls, so I don't see them winning it all this year. But they're still top dog until someone knocks them off.
Fantasy Focus - The Patriots are one of the best teams in the league, so accordingly their individual players are not stellar fantasy picks. Dillon had a sensational year in 2004, but the way Brady spreads the ball around, none of New England's receivers is a "go-to" guy. Their defense is money, as is K Adam Vinatieri. TE Daniel Graham caught a bunch of TD's last year, but his touches will be down if Ben Watson emerges as more of a red-zone threat.

New York Jets - The Jets were one of my two sleeper teams last year, and they made me look smart (which isn't an easy thing to do) by going to the playoffs and actually winning a wild card game in San Diego before choking one away in Pittsburgh. Needless to say, K Doug Brien is gone. In fact, the Jets drafted Mike Nugent out of THE Ohio State University in the 2nd round, the highest a kicker has been drafted since the Raiders picked Sebastian "GHB" Janikowski in the 1st round of the 2000 draft. QB Chad Pennington appears fully recovered from off-season shoulder surgery, and he'll be happy to find his old buddy Laveranues Coles back in green and white. RB Curtis Martin was the oldest rushing champion in league history, edging Seattle's Shaun Alexander by one yard. But the Jets suffered a huge loss on defense when DT Jason Ferguson jumped ship. DE John Abraham's hold out also complicates matters. The Jets probably took a small step backwards, and that may cost them a shot at the post-season.
Fantasy Focus - Martin is consistent, but he caught lightning in a bottle last year. No way he has that good a year again this year. Still, he's a solid pick, as are Pennington, Coles, and WR Justin McCairens. Looking for a good late-round receiver? Watch out for Jericho Cotchery, who has looked outstanding in the pre-season and could have an impact this year. I wouldn't touch the Jets defense with a ten-foot pole.

AFC North
Baltimore Ravens - I love what the Ravens did this off-season. They added CB Samari Rolle to an already-stout defense which, oh by the way, still features the reigning defensive player of the year (S Ed Reed) and one of the best LB's in the league in Ray Lewis. Then, they addressed their lack of a passing game on offense by signing free agent WR Derrick Mason and drafting rookie Mark Clayton out of Oklahoma in the first round. Jamal Lewis' ankle injury (and legal problems) are in the past, and if Kyle Boller can finally make the leap, Baltimore will factor heavily in the AFC playoff picture, and may be the last team standing when the dust settles.
Fantasy Focus - A healthy Jamal Lewis would benefit from Kyle Boller making plays, which he has no excuses not to anymore. Mason is a terrific receiver, and Clayton will see the field a lot as a rook. And if there's a better defense in the league than the Ravens, I haven't seen it.

Cincinnati Bengals - After consecutive 8-8 campaigns, many are expecting this to be the year the Bengals break through and return to the playoffs. And why not? They've got a good young QB in Carson Palmer, an underrated RB Rudi Johnson, and an above-average receiving corps featuring Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh (gesundheit). But if the Bengals are going to succeed, their defense is going to have to step it up a notch, led by LB Brian Simmons. Cincinnati will benefit from two games against Cleveland, but the rest of their division schedule is tough. The rest of the schedule is light, save for home dates with Minnesota and Indianapolis. Looks like another ho-hum 8-8 year for the Bengals. Will that be acceptable?
Fantasy Focus - When drafting Bengals for your fantasy squad, remember this - Johnson & Johnson. No, not baby powder, shampoo, and Tylenol. I mean Rudi and Chad. Both are studs as evidenced by their 2004 numbers (Rudi: 1,454 yards, 12 TD's; Chad: 1,274 yards, 9 TD's). Other than that, Houshmandzadeh and K Shayne Graham are your best bets.

Cleveland Browns - Those guys in the dawg pund may want to trade in their rubber dog masks for brown paper bags, because the Browns look dreadful this year. At least on paper. Former Super Bowl champion (no kidding) Trent Difler is atop the depth chart at QB, and their starting wideouts are Andre Davis and Dennis Northcutt. Yikes. The Browns' best options all play the same position, and RB's Lee Suggs, Reuben Droughns, and William Green can't all be on the field at the same time, unless you count special teams. The Browns will also be without TE "Evil Kellen-evil" Winslow, who pulled a Jeff Kent and crashed his motorcycle and is gone for the year. The Browns are switching to a 3-4 defense, but will it matter? Should be a long first season for new head coach Romeo Crennel.
Fantasy Focus - There are no real slam dunks on this team. The RB's will all share touches, so it's tough to pick the #1 guy there. Go ahead and draft Dilfer. I dare you.

Pittsburgh Steelers - Stop me if you've heard this before, but the Steelers are loaded. I know they're a little banged up at RB right now, but expect a healthy Duce Staley and/or Jerome Bettis to give the offense some balance. QB Ben Roethlisberger was 13-0 as a starter in the regular season, though he struggled towards the end and played poorly in the AFC title game. Can he avoid the mythical sophomore jinx? WR Hines Ward put his contract squabbles to bed and came into camp, and should have another big season. And in case you haven't noticed, Pittsburgh's defense is pretty good. OK, that's a lie. Theyr'e very, very good. They will be challenged by the Ravens, but the AFC North is still Pittsburgh's division to win.
Fantasy Focus - Take Pittsburgh's defense - early. As for the rest of the Steelers, they're solid but not spectacular (with the exception of Ward). This is a defense-first football team who likely won't put up Madden-like numbers on offense. Bettis will start early, but when Staley is back, he should be the man. If you draft one, plan on him being a part-time starter. Another fantasy sleeper may be rookie TE Heath Miller, who has great hands and will be one of Big Ben's best red-zone optiions.

AFC South
Houston Texans - The Texans enter their third year of existence, and the young franchise has young talent at the skill positions in QB David Carr, RB Domanick Davis, and WR Andre Johnson. They plucked TE Mark Bruener off the Steelers' roster, and added Victor Riley to the O-Line. Houston's most significant addition was on the defensive side of the ball - CB Philip Buchanon, who will partner with 2nd year man Dunta Robinson as a formidable duo. And in a divison with Indianapolis and Jacksonville, you can never have too many good corners. The rest of the defense is above average, but again, with high-powered offenses in their own division, there will be some games that have the potential to get out of hand. No doubt the young Texans are on the rise, but they've still got a little ways to go.
Fantasy Focus - All of Houston's skill position players are good fantasy picks because they all put up numbers. Carr and Johnson are solid, but the best of the bunch by far is Davis, who may be one of the top 5 fantasy RB's in the league (14 total TD's in 2004). K Kris Brown is another good pick. Let the buyer beware the Texans defense. There are planty of better options around the league.

Indianapolis Colts - Let's see, when you think of the Indianapolis Colts, you immediately think of, I don't know, defense and special teams? Well if you're a Colts fan, that's all you should be thinking about. Because their offense has been among the NFL's best the last couple of years, and they still haven't cashed one in to a Super Bowl appearance. The Colts have made a conscious effort to bolster their defense in recent years, adding hard-hitting S Bob Sanders in the '05 draft to go with a decent crop of linebackers and budding superstar DE Dwight Freeney. For all his accolades, Peyton Manning just can't seem to beat the Patriots. They might as well have "Gators" written on their helmets. Many people think the Colts are the team to beat in the AFC and the NFL this year. I'm not saying I disagree, even though there are enough reasons to doubt them.
Fantasy Focus - Take your pick of these weapons: Manning, RB Edgerrin James (2,031 total yards and 9 TD's a year ago), WR's Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne, and Brandon Stokely (all of which had 10+ TD's last year). And just for good measure, TE Dallas Clark added 5 TD's. K Mike Vanderjagt racked up a ton of extra points and is still among the most accurate FG kickers. Indy's defense is a good pick because they record a lot of sacks and turnovers, which equal fantasy points.

Jacksonville Jaguars - My other sleeper team from '04, the Jaguars, were thisclose to making the playoffs, alas they fell just short. This year, the Jags offense is going to more of a vertical passing game, which suits QB Byron Leftwich nicely. He played in a similar system at Marshall and thrived, and he's got great pass-catchers in Jimmy Smith, Reggie Williams, and converted QB Matt Jones, who is an absolute freak of nature. And I think we can take the "injury-prone" label off of RB Fred Taylor now, as he hasn't sustained a serious injury in a couple of years (and yes, I just jinxed him). Jacksonville's fast, aggresive defense was one of the biggest surprises a year ago, and should be just as good if not better. It's a shame that Jacksonville plays in the loaded AFC, becauase they could go 10-6 and still miss the playoffs.
Fantasy Focus - Let the buyer beware Fred Taylor, not because of injuries but because his TD total from last year (2) indicates that Jacksonville will go to a big back (LaBrandon Toefield) in goal-line situations, and throw it around with height at the WR position. Leftwich is a decent pick, but he may throw a bunch of INT's thanks to the new vertical passing game. The Jags' defense was among the league leaders in points allowed, and they are capable of making the big sack or turnover.

Tennessee Titans - Still trying to dig out from the salary cap hell they created, the Titans welcome back former league MVP QB Steve McNair (remember him?), and have also added Buffalo cast-off RB Travis Henry. The problem for the Titans will be on the defensive side of the ball, especially since they lost CB Samari Rolle to free agency, then wasted a first round pick Adam "Pac Man" Jones, who was a holdout and is currently the 6th corner on Tennessee's depth chart (a little sidebar on Jones - ESPN draft guru Mel Kiper Jr. had him as the top CB in the draft last year, ahead of guys like Antrel Rolle, Carlos Rogers, and Marlon Jackson. Huh? Rolle may start in Arizona this year, and Rogers and Jackson will not only play but contribute, while Jones is SIXTH on the Titans depth chart? I should have Mel Kiper's job. But I digress). Anyway, I wouldn't expect a whole lot from the Titans this year.
Fantasy Focus - Well, McNair was great once when he had guys like Eddie George, Derrick Mason, and Frank Wycheck around him. Whether or not he can regain his former MVP form remains to be seen. Henry will share carries with last year's starter, Chris Brown. Drew Bennett is a decent receiver who had an outstanding second half lst year, but again, he's a bit of a gamble.

AFC West
Denver Broncos - If I was a fan of the Denver Broncos, my motto for the 2005-06 season would be "Avoid the Colts at all Costs." The Colts have ejected the Broncos from the last two post-seasons by a combined score of 90-34. The Broncos are back with the usual suspects, namely QB Jake Plummer, RB's Mike Anderson and Tatum Bell, and WR's Rod Smith and Ashley Lelie. They did lose Reuben Droughns, who was the latest in a line of many Bronco running backs to benefit from their offensive system, but they can offset that loss because of depth (and the fact that the next 1,000 rusher is probably a sixth round pick away, and it's not Maurice Clarett). Denver's biggest changes are on the defensive side of the ball, where Mike Shanahan must have been sipping Brown kool-aid, because he added former Cleveland D-Limeman Courtney Brown and Ebenezer Ekuban. Why? I'm not entirely sure. The Broncos are consistent if nothing else, and would be a good dark-horse candidate to win the AFC West.
Fantasy Focus - If not for all of the interceptions, Plummer would be one of the best fantasy players in the league. As it is, he still puts up decent enough numbers. It's hard to say whether Anderson or Bell is atop the running back depth chart, though it appears as though Anderson has the edge. Still a risky fantasy play. As is Rod Smith, who is around 65 years old. Lelie is a great deep threat. You may want to stay clear of Jerry Rice (yes, that Jerry Rice).

Kansas City Chiefs - Some guy (OK, it was me) thought the Chiefs could win the AFC last year with a dynamic offense making up for the lack of a dominating defense. That's my bad. But Kansas City did address a few defensive deficiencies by adding CB Patrick Surtain from the Dolphins and drafting LB Derrick Johnson out of Texas in the 1st round. But their bread and butter is still on the offensive side of the ball. And with Priest Holmes in the backfield, why wouldn't it be? Holmes missed the second half of the '04 season, but still had 14 TD's. Would a healthy Holmes have made a difference? Only if he could play defense. The bottom line is the Chiefs will be better, but they still will not contend for the AFC crown.
Fantasy Focus - Despite injury concerns, Holmes is still worthy of #1 pick status. His back up, Larry Johnson, will also get some carries. QB Trent Green and TE Tony Gonzalez are among the best fantasy players at their respective positions. I know they'll be better, but I still wouldn't hang my hat on Kansas City's defense.

Oakland Raiders -This year's "Chuck D, Flava Flav, Public Enemy" award goes to the Oakland Raiders. Why? Because I don't believe the hype. I know they added WR Randy Moss via trade, and they made a big splash by signing free agent RB Lamont Jordan as their workhorse. That can only help QB Kerry Collins, who has a strong arm but isn't deadly accurate. Moss can go up and get the ball, which will make Collins look better (as will a healthy Jerry Porter). But have you seen the Raiders defense? Oakland should score a ton of points, but if they can't stop anyone, they're simply the 2004 Chiefs, and we saw how they fared.
Fantasy Focus - These guys are a fantasy owner's dream. Moss is an absolute stud, and Collins will put up points. Jordan has never been a #1 back, so he's a bit of a gamble. He's got the size and speed to be among the game's elite. He could also fall flat on his face. Time will tell. Porter should see single-coverage early with Moss across the field.

San Diego Chargers - The surprise winner of the AFC West in 2004, the Chargers look to be primed for another strong season. And with San Diego, it all starts with RB LaDanian Tomlinson, who is perhaps the best RB in the NFL right now. Tomlinson set a personal goal of 2,200 rushing yards (not just in the two games against the Raiders, but for the season). QB Drew Brees, thought to be on the way out when the Chargers acquired Philip Rivers at #4 overall a year ago, was the comeback player of the year and earned himself another year under center in San Diego. The Chargers defense is good, but not great. It wouldn't surprise me if the Chargers made it to the post season. It would be a shock, however, if Marty Schottenheimer actually won a playoff game. Safe to say the only way Marty is in Detroit on Feb. 5, 2006 is if he buys a ticket from Mike Tice.
Fantasy Focus - If Tomlinson isn't #1 on your draft board, you may want to seek a refund on your entry fee. Brees is a little risky, as he could revert to 2003 Drew Brees. TE Antonio Gates caught 13 TD's last year, but held out and will miss at least the season-opener against Dallas. The Chargers defense won't wow you, but they won't kill you either.

The solution to the T.O. Debacle

Drew Rosenhaus, the agent for Philadelphia Eagles pro-bowl wide receiver Terrell Owens (among others), is seeking a new contract for his client, saying that he "out-performed" the terms of the 7 year, $49 million contract he signed a year ago.

By all accounts, Owens had a fantastic season - 77 receptions, 1,200 yards, 14 touchdowns, plus another 9 grabs for 122 yards in the Super Bowl (following the early return from a gruesome ankle injury).

But is it possible to "out-perform" a contract?

The Eagles acquired Owens to be the number one receiving option for quarterback Donovan McNabb. They traded for him in hopes that he would be the final piece of the puzzle that would land the Eagles in the Super Bowl. He was exactly what they wanted and needed him to be. In other words, he merely performed the duties for which he was compensated, which is the purpose of a contract.

So now with the Eagles 60 days away from opening defense of their NFC crown, they are faced with the prospect of doing so without Owens. When the Eagles veterans report to Lehigh University in Bethlehem, PA on August 1st, chances are Owens will not be one among them.

While the Eagles are still a very good team without Owens, they are an infinitely better team with him. His presence is essential to the Eagles finally reaching the peak of the NFL mountain. But the Eagles have vowed that they will not rework his deal, and Owens has threatened to holdout or retire, thus the sides are seemingly at am impasse.

The solution is an easy one, at least as far as I can see...pay the man.

Now, I don't think the Eagles should tear up Owens' current contract at start over. But the fact is his contract is heavily back-loaded, and nothing after this year is guaranteed. Owens is scheduled to earn a substantial roster bonus in July 2006 and could be fearful that the team will cut him without recourse. Perhaps the injury last year has Owens questioning his own immortality and he's looking for assurance for his future.

Or maybe this is all Drew Rosenhaus' doing.

Rosenhaus is the guy who thinks its unfair that the Eagles could cut Owens at any time, but that he can't hold his client out for more money as he sees fit. Rosenhaus is a worm who is neglecting one fundamental point in his argument. It's the NFL player's union that agreed to a collective bargaining agreement with the league that authorized contracts without guaranteed money. Rosenhaus should be petitioning the union, not holding his clients out and screwing their respective teams.

Either way, if the Eagles were to simply guarantee Owens' contract for one more year (including the roster bonus), then everyone wins. Owens gets what he wants (job security, one more big pay day, and the chance to win a ring), the Eagles get what they need (their number one receiver back on the field and motivated to win it all), and the fans get what they love (the best team in the NFC back in tact).

And in a perfect world, Owens would fire Drew Rosenhaus, and he would get nothing. Which is what he deserves.