The Week 4 Picks

There are an abnormal number of road favorites this week, and as I am heading on the road myself, the picks will be brief in nature.

Sunday, September 30, 2007

The Match-up: Green Bay (-1.5) @ Minnesota
The Skinny: The Packers have one nine straight games dating back to 2006, and are 3-0 against three playoff teams of a year ago. Impressive. Brett Favre in a dome? Not impressive.
Straight Up: Minnesota
Against the Spread: Minnesota

The Match-up: Houston (-3.0) @ Atlanta
The Skinny: Matt Schaub torches the Falcons in his homecoming effort.
Straight Up: Houston
Against the Spread: Houston

The Match-up: New York Jets (-3.5) @ Buffalo
The Skinny: The Jets run defense hasn’t been good, but they’re facing a rookie starting quarterback, so they’ll key on Marshawn Lynch.
Straight Up: New York Jets
Against the Spread: New York Jets

The Match-up: Baltimore (-4.5) @ Cleveland
The Skinny: Speaking of poor run defenses, the Browns are allowing 176 yards per game on the ground. Hello, Willis McGahee!
Straight Up: Baltimore
Against the Spread: Baltimore

The Match-up: St. Louis (+12.5) @ Dallas
The Skinny: If you don’t know the name Brian Leonard, you will by Sunday at 4:15.
Straight Up: St. Louis
Against the Spread: St. Louis

The Match-up: Chicago (-2.5) @ Detroit
The Skinny: Brian Griese gets the start for Chicago in place of the ineffective "Wrecks" Grossman.
Straight Up: Chicago
Against the Spread: Chicago

The Match-up: Oakland (+4.0) @ Miami
The Skinny: Can you call this a homecoming for Daunte Culpepper? He did only play five games for Miami, and not well at that.
Straight Up: Oakland
Against the Spread: Oakland

The Match-up: Seattle (-2.0) @ San Francisco
The Skinny: The road has not been kind to the Seahawks in the past.
Straight Up: Seattle
Against the Spread: Seattle

The Match-up: Tampa Bay (Off) @ Carolina
The Skinny: Carolina may start David Carr at quarterback with Jake Del-overrated on the shelf.
Straight Up: Tampa Bay
Against the Spread: Tampa Bay

The Match-up: Pittsburgh (-6.0) @ Arizona
The Skinny: Fortunately for the Northeast Box Company, Kurt Warner came in last week and started throwing the ball to Anquan Boldin.
Straight Up: Pittsburgh
Against the Spread: Pittsburgh

The Match-up: Kansas City (+11.5) @ San Diego
The Skinny: The Saints think the Chargers are struggling.
Straight Up: San Diego
Against the Spread: Kansas City

The Match-up: Denver (+9.5) @ Indianapolis
The Skinny: I knew Denver was bad, yet couldn’t talk myself into a Jaguars upset last week. No such convincing needed this week.
Straight Up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Indianapolis

The Match-up: Philadelphia (-3.0) @ New York Giants
The Skinny: Justice for me would have been Donovan McNabb entering his post-game press conference last week and, without saying a word, holding up a sign with his stats (21/26, 381 Yards, 4 TD, 0 INT, perfect QB rating) and a middle finger for all of his critics.
Straight Up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia

Monday, October 1, 2007

The Match-up: New England (-7.0) @ Cincinnati
The Skinny: this is the kind of game where the Bengals will explode and scare the crap out of Bill Beli-cheat.
Straight Up: New England
Against the Spread: Cincinnati

Bye: Jacksonville, New Orleans, Tennessee, Washington
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Week 2: 9-7 straight up; 5-8-3 against the spread
Season: 30-18; 18-24-6

The Week 3 Picks

Please forgive me if I seem a little irritable.

You see, as my sports teams go, I go. And right now, nothing seems to be working for me. Yes, the Fightin’ Phils are making a push for their first playoff appearance since 1993. Sure, Flyers training camp is open and they looked poised to return to contender status after a one year blip off the NHL’s radar.

I shouldn’t be focused on the Phillies and Flyers at this time of year, but that’s what happens when my college football team scores like A.C. Green, and when I watch my pro football team stumble out of the gate like a three-legged horse. I’m about as angry as O.J. busting commando-style into a hotel room looking for some stolen memorabilia. And now I’ll be dropping F-bombs like Samuel L. Jackson and Denis Leary, so if foul language offends you, feel free to skip ahead to the picks…

Let’s start with Notre Dame and their offensive ineptitude. I know they’re rebuilding (sorry, Charlie, that’s the word), but this is ridiculous. The Michigan game was a fucking embarrassment. It’s like there wasn’t even an offensive line on the field. Two of the first five snaps went over Jimmy Clausen’s head. They can’t run block (as evidenced by their 120th-ranked rushing offense, worst in the NCAA), nor can they pass block (Irish quarterbacks have been sacked 23 times in three games, also an NCAA worst). On one play, the Wolverines rushed only their four down linemen AND ALL FOUR TACKLED CLAUSEN AT THE SAME TIME!!! What the fuck is that about? How does that even happen? You’d think the five O-linemen might at least get a piece of somebody. The defense may be the strength of the team, and they are on the field for 45 fucking minutes a game because the offense can’t sustain drives. Charlie Weis says they’re going back to the drawing board and starting over, but in the immortal words of S. Phil Hunter, "you can’t make chicken salad out of chicken shit." Take a look at the schedule and see who’s on the horizon – Michigan State (who always gives us fits), Purdue (ditto), UCLA, Boston Fucking College (that’s their official name, by the way), and USC. To be honest, I’m not sure I feel good about Stanford and the service academies, either. Can we beat Duke? Are we really looking at 1-11? I think I need a barf bag.

Remember last year when Donovan McNabb tore his ACL and the Eagles rallied around Brian Westbrook and a renewed commitment to the running game? Well, neither do they. Why the hell are they still throwing the ball 75 percent of the time when you’ve got Westbrook averaging better than five yards per carry? Is Marty Mornhinweg still calling the plays, or is he locked in an equipment trunk somewhere? Reggie Brown and Kevin Curtis are dropping the ball like it’s a fucking hand grenade without a pin. The only guy that catches the ball consistently is Hank Baskett, and he’s basically been relegated to special teams because Andy Reid’s got a boner for Jason Avant. During Monday night’s debacle against Washington, I actually - you may want to sit for this – wished they could get T.O. back. Is it really a coincidence that the one time they made it to the Super Bowl they actually had a legitimate number one receiver?

Look, there’s not a bigger McNabb fan on the planet than me. I’ve been his biggest supporter during his entire tenure in Philly, and he’s been unfairly criticized a lot. Never has a superstar quarterback been asked to do so much with so little. But he shouldn’t be the focal point of the offense, especially if he’s only operating at 80% efficiency right now as he recovers from his ACL surgery. They’ve got to do a better job of running the ball, committing to it 25-30 times a game between Westbrook, Correll Buckhalter, and even Tony Hunt if the other two are spent.

And if McNabb is accurate in his assessment that they need to close the deal sooner than later (and I agree, by the way), they’d better do something about the play-calling and the pu-pu platter of receivers before they have to blow the whole thing up and start over.

Serenity now…serenity now.

Sunday, September 23, 2007

The Match-up: Indianapolis (-6.0) @ Houston
The Skinny: At full strength, I think the Texans could give the Colts a game. No, seriously. But they’ll be without the most under-the-radar WR in the league, Andre Johnson, who’s got a bum knee.
Straight Up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Indianapolis

The Match-up: Buffalo (+16.5) @ New England
The Skinny: I’m not sure if Sunday’s game told me more about the Patriots or the Chargers. Either way, I’m convinced that the Pats are the best team in the league right now. I guess Randy Moss feels like playing this year.
Straight Up: New England
Against the Spread: Buffalo

The Match-up: Miami (+3.0) @ New York Jets
The Skinny: My buddy Keith calls this the "Squish the Fish" game. But Dolphins aren’t fish, they’re mammals. Either way, I think they’ll get squished.
Straight Up: New York Jets
Against the Spread: New York Jets

The Match-up: Detroit (+6.0) @ Philadelphia
The Skinny: Yes, the Eagles are 0-2. They were also 0-2 in 2003, then won 12 of their next 13 and finished the year as the top seed in the NFC. So while I may be concerned, I’m not pushing the panic button…yet.
Straight Up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia

The Match-up: San Francisco (+9.0) @ Pittsburgh
The Skinny: Yes, the Steelers have looked great this season, albeit against inferior opponents Cleveland and Buffalo. It’s not like the 49ers are the ’72 Dolphins, but they should provide a better assessment as to how good the Steelers really are.
Straight Up: Pittsburgh
Against the Spread: Pittsburgh

The Match-up: St. Louis (+3.5) @ Tampa Bay
The Skinny: While neither has offense has lit the world on fire so far, at least the Rams have the potential to explode. Sooner or later, Steven Jackson is going to bust out. Not sure the same can be said of "Cadillac" Williams.
Straight Up: St. Louis
Against the Spread: St. Louis

The Match-up: San Diego (-5.0) @ Green Bay
The Skinny: Dating back to last season, the Packers are on an eight game winning streak. But the Chargers need a rebound after Sunday’s abysmal performance in Foxboro.
Straight Up: San Diego
Against the Spread: Green Bay

The Match-up: Arizona (+8.0) @ Baltimore
The Skinny: New Cardinals head coach should be plenty familiar with the Ravens having spent some time with their division-rival Steelers. This game could come down to the field goal kickers, and Neil Rackers and Matt Stover can both boot them.
Straight Up: Baltimore
Against the Spread: Arizona

The Match-up: Minnesota (+3.0) @ Kansas City
The Skinny: The Vikings are making me look pretty smart for tabbing them as my sleeper team for this year.
Straight Up: Minnesota
Against the Spread: Minnesota

The Match-up: Cleveland (+3.0) @ Oakland
The Skinny: Wait, those were really the Cleveland Browns racking up 51 points last week? They may not score 51 points over the next four weeks.
Straight Up: Oakland
Against the Spread: Oakland

The Match-up: Cincinnati (+3.5) @ Seattle
The Skinny: Maybe the Bengals defense isn’t new and improved. I’m sure a lot of people picked them up on waivers for their fantasy teams and got burned.
Straight Up: Seattle
Against the Spread: Seattle

The Match-up: Jacksonville (+3.0) @ Denver
The Skinny: The Broncos have to be the most unimpressive 2-0 team in the league. They needed a last second field goal to beat Buffalo, and overtime to knock off Oakland. At home against a Jacksonville team that can’t seem to find its offense, they’re probably looking at another squeaker.
Straight Up: Denver
Against the Spread: Denver

The Match-up: Carolina (-3.5) @ Atlanta
The Skinny: I figure if I keep picking them to win, maybe they’ll lose (since they’ve already screwed me twice this season).
Straight Up: Carolina
Against the Spread: Carolina

The Match-up: New York Giants (+3.5) @ Washington
The Skinny: I thought the MNF guys made a good point the other night – all of Washington’s starters in the secondary are former first-round picks. So glad the Eagles decided to chuck it 46 times against them. Serenity now…serenity now.
Straight Up: Washington
Against the Spread: Washington

The Match-up: Dallas (+3.0) @ Chicago
The Skinny: If I’m Lovie Smith, I’m getting Devin Hester on the field in every possible situation. I say he breaks one against the stinkin’ Cowboys.
Straight Up: Chicago
Against the Spread: Chicago

Monday, September 24, 2007

The Match-up: Tennessee (+4.0) @ New Orleans
The Skinny: So were the Saints an anomaly last year, or are they truly better than they’ve been this year? They were outstanding in front of their home crowd in 2006. I’m banking on them feeding off that again.
Straight Up: New Orleans
Against the Spread: New Orleans
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Week 2: 9-7 straight up; 6-9-1 against the spread
Season: 21-11; 13-16-3

The Week 2 Picks

If you’re not cheating, you’re not trying.

I’m not sure who originally penned that phrase, but growing up playing sports, I heard it uttered countless times. I guess the implication was that athletes bend the rules in order to gain a competitive edge.

Here’s another one I heard a lot - It’s only cheating if you get caught.

Well, this week, the Patriots got caught. A team representative was nabbed for videotaping the Jets coaching staff in an effort to determine defensive calls and things of that nature. Obviously, it worked (the Pats rolled, 38-14). What’s worse, New England coach Bill Belichick is apparently a repeat offender, having been accused of these types of tactics before. It’s not like Roger Goodell came down hard. Belichick was assessed a $500,000 fine, the team another $250,000, and the Patriots will forfeit one of their two 2008 first-round picks. Personally, I think a suspension would have been in order, especially with some of the other, stiffer punishments doled out by the commish.

With all this in mind, I wonder about the legitimacy of the Patriots’ 24-21 win over the Eagles in Super Bowl XXXIX. As stated in this article, the evidence is damning. New England amassed only 45 yards in the first quarter, and 268 for the remaining three. The Eagles would blitz, and the Pats would run a little screen pass to that side.

Hmmmm…

So am I just crazy? Or am I a conspiracy theorist? Or am I a bitter Eagles fan who now feels like we deserved a better fate in that game?

Yes, yes, and yes.

And, if they were to somehow, some way award the Eagles a victory in that game, would I celebrate it three years later?

You bet your asterisk I would.

Sunday, September 16, 2007

The Match-up: Houston (+6.5) @ Carolina
The Skinny: So the good Jake Del-overrated showed up last week for the Panthers. Will he show up again?
Straight Up: Carolina
Against the Spread: Carolina

The Match-up: Atlanta (+10.0) @ Jacksonville
The Skinny: Neither of these teams impressed last week, with the Jaguars losing at home to Tennessee and the Falcons falling to Houston. If their opener is any indication, the Falcons should be able to run the ball at will, which will at the very least keep it close.
Straight Up: Jacksonville
Against the Spread: Atlanta

The Match-up: Indianapolis (-7.0) @ Tennessee
The Skinny: It seems like forever ago that the Colts opened their Super Bowl defense with a 31- point dismantling of the Saints. I bet Vince Young sees it every time he closes his eyes.
Straight Up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Indianapolis

The Match-up: San Francisco (+3.0) @ St. Louis
The Skinny: While San Francisco didn’t look great in winning last week, St. Louis looked awful in losing. Just a hunch here, but both teams are likely better than they showed a week ago.
Straight Up: San Francisco
Against the Spread: San Francisco

The Match-up: Green Bay (Pick) @ New York Giants
The Skinny: Now starting at quarterback for your New York Giants – the Pillsbury Throwboy!!!
Straight Up: Green Bay
Against the Spread: Green Bay

The Match-up: Buffalo (+9.5) @ Pittsburgh
The Skinny: A gimpy Travis Henry racked up 139 yards against Buffalo in Buffalo last week. Willie Parker should be chomping at the bit right now.
Straight Up: Pittsburgh
Against the Spread: Pittsburgh

The Match-up: Cincinnati (-6.5) @ Cleveland
The Skinny: Memo to Browns brain trust – I know you think you’re trying to protect your investment by keeping Brady Quinn on the sideline in a baseball cap. You’re going to have to start him sooner or later. Why not now?
Straight Up: Cincinnati
Against the Spread: Cincinnati

The Match-up: New Orleans (-3.5) @ Tampa Bay
The Skinny: Even in their hey day, the Buccaneers defense was susceptible to the run. Enter Deuce McAllister.
Straight Up: New Orleans
Against the Spread: New Orleans

The Match-up: Minnesota (+3.0) @ Detroit
The Skinny: With a win on Sunday, the Lions could be 2-0 for the first time since the Barry Sanders administration. But the Vikings are my sleeper for a reason. Their defense was sensational last week, and Adrian Peterson is as good as advertised.
Straight Up: Minnesota
Against the Spread: Minnesota

The Match-up: Dallas (-3.5) @ Miami
The Skinny: At least the Cowboys will be challenged by Miami’s defense.
Straight Up: Miami
Against the Spread: Miami

The Match-up: Seattle (-3.0) @ Arizona
The Skinny: Good omen for the Seahawks – they are 30-6 when Shaun Alexander runs for over 100 yards. Even if he has to carry the ball 30 times to get there.
Straight Up: Seattle
Against the Spread: Seattle

The Match-up: New York Jets (+10.0) @ Baltimore
The Skinny: I’m not sure why this line is so high. I’d venture to argue that the drop off from Steve McNair to Kyle Boller is greater than Chad Pennington to Kellen Clemens. I almost want to take the Jets to win outright.
Straight Up: Baltimore
Against the Spread: New York Jets

The Match-up: Kansas City (+12.0) @ Chicago
The Skinny: If the Bears defense can replicate their effort of a week ago, when they put the clamps on San Diego’s potent offense, Kansas City has pretty much no shot.
Straight Up: Chicago
Against the Spread: Chicago

The Match-up: Oakland (+10.0) @ Denver
The Skinny: Weird win for the Broncos last week. They outgained Buffalo 470-184, yet needed a Jason Elam field goal at the gun to beat the Bills. Not sure if I’m encouraged or discouraged by that kind of performance.
Straight Up: Denver
Against the Spread: Denver

The Match-up: San Diego (+3.5) @ New England
The Skinny: So, will “Videogate” be a distraction to the Patriots? Or, will they be able to beat San Diego without taped assistance? Until proven otherwise, I still don’t feel comfortable going against New England at home.
Straight Up: New England
Against the Spread: New England

Monday, September 17, 2007

The Match-up: Washington (+6.5) @ Philadelphia
The Skinny: Last week’s game illustrates just how important special teams are. If the Eagles could fair catch a punt, they’d be 1-0 right now. Welcome home, Reno Mahe!
Straight Up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Week 1: 12-4 straight up; 7-7-2 against the spread
Season: 12-4; 7-7-2

The Week 1 Picks

Sunday, September 9, 2007

The Match-up: Denver (-3.0) @ Buffalo
The Skinny: Buffalo’s run defense surrendered an average of 141 yards a game last year. And what to the Broncos do best?
Straight Up: Denver
Against the Spread: Denver

The Match-up: Miami (+3.0) @ Washington
The Skinny: Redskins QB Jason Campbell barely played in the pre-season due to a knee injury and RB Clinton Portis didn’t suit up at all. Yet Washington is still favored in this game. That should tell you all you need to know about the Dolphins.
Straight Up: Washington
Against the Spread: Washington

The Match-up: Pittsburgh (-4.5) @ Cleveland
The Skinny: I know the Browns are sitting Brady Quinn because they play some tough defenses, including the Steelers, early in the year. But why not throw the kid in the pool and see if he can swim? I’m hoping for a big week from Steelers RB Willie Parker, first round draft choice of the Northeast Box Company.
Straight Up: Pittsburgh
Against the Spread: Pittsburgh

The Match-up: Tennessee (+6.5) @ Jacksonville
The Skinny: Even though David Garrard edged out Byron Leftwich for the QB job in Jacksonville, I wouldn’t look for much of an aerial attack from the Jaguars. With runners like Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew, why throw it at all?
Straight Up: Jacksonville
Against the Spread: Jacksonville

The Match-up: Kansas City (+3.0) @ Houston
The Skinny: I know Damon Huard was 5-1 as a starter for the Chiefs last year, but the Kansas City offense is still one-dimensional, and that one dimension missed most of training camp due to a contract hold out. I can’t see the Chiefs stumping Matt Schaub and the Texans.
Straight Up: Houston
Against the Spread: Houston

The Match-up: Philadelphia (-3.0) @ Green Bay
The Skinny: Including the post-season, Eagles head coach Andy Reid is 5-1 lifetime against his former employer. Make that 6-1.
Straight Up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia

The Match-up: Carolina (+1.0) @ St. Louis
The Skinny: Panthers QB Jake Del-overrated went undrafted in my 12 team, 14 player Fantasy Football league. Just thought it was worth mentioning.
Straight Up: St. Louis
Against the Spread: St. Louis

The Match-up: Atlanta (+3.0) @ Minnesota
The Skinny: Let’s see, one team is my sleeper for 2007, and the other will start Joey Harrington in place of the con-Vick-ted felon they had a season ago. Minnesota’s defense is very underrated, and should impact this game one way or another.
Straight Up: Minnesota
Against the Spread: Minnesota

The Match-up: New England (-6.5) @ New York Jets
The Skinny: This is a scary game for the Pats on many fronts. Richard Seymour and Rodney Harrison are out. Asante Samuel and Randy Moss haven’t played in a while. And, Eric Mangini is extremely motivated to face his former boss, the uber-genius Bill Belichick. I don’t know if the Jets will win, but they’ll keep it interesting.
Straight Up: New England
Against the Spread: New York Jets

The Match-up: Tampa Bay (+6.0) @ Seattle
The Skinny: It seems that nobody is talking about in the Seahawks as an NFC contender, but they could change all that on Sunday.
Straight Up: Seattle
Against the Spread: Seattle

The Match-up: Detroit (+1.5) @ Oakland
The Skinny: Honestly, I never thought I’d be talking about a match-up between the "high-powered Detroit offense" and "mauling Oakland defense." In truth, it could be the Raiders offense (or lack thereof) that decides this game.
Straight Up: Detroit
Against the Spread: Detroit

The Match-up: Chicago (+6.0) @ San Diego
The Skinny: Let’s hope this potential Super Bowl preview is more entertaining than the one witnessed last night.
Straight Up: San Diego
Against the Spread: San Diego

The Match-up: New York Giants (+5.5) @ Dallas
The Skinny: Dallas WR Terry Glenn will miss the game with a bad knee, but I’m sure she’ll be fine in the long-term. Eli Manning always starts the season relatively well.
Straight Up: New York Giants
Against the Spread: New York Giants

Monday, September 10, 2007

The Match-up: Baltimore (+2.5) @ Cincinnati
The Skinny: The line tells me a lot here. The Ravens are widely viewed as one of the top five teams in the AFC, yet they’re an underdog in Cincinnati. Ocho Cinco and Ray Lewis have already been trash-talking.
Straight Up: Cincinnati
Against the Spread: Cincinnati

The Match-up: Arizona (+3.0) @ San Francisco
The Skinny: Showcase game for two of the league’s up-and-coming QB’s, Arizona’s Matt Leinart and San Francisco’s Alex Smith.
Straight Up: San Francisco
Against the Spread: San Francisco

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Week 1: 1-0 Straight up; 0-1 Against the Spread
Season: 1-0; 0-1

Bombshells in New England and the Opening Night Pick

There's been a lot of news lately coming out of New England, and none of it has to do with anyone Tom Brady impregnated. For starters, DE Richard Seymour was placed on the Physically Unable to Perform (PUP) list, meaning he'll miss the first six weeks of the season. To make matters worse, S Rodney Harrison will be shelved for the first four after admitting to using performance-enhancing drugs. But the biggest shocker of all...the Patriots released WR Reche Caldwell! Needless to say, he was surprised...

For the love of God, someone please sign Reche Caldwell so I can keep using that picture!

********************************************************************

The NFL season officially starts tomorrow, with what should be an outstanding contest between the team that just climbed the mountain, and one of the leading contenders to knock them back down.

The Match-up: New Orleans (+6.0) @ Indianapolis
The Skinny: It's sort of a homecoming for both all-pro quarterbacks. Peyton Manning originally hails from New Orleans, and Drew Brees played his college ball at Purdue, about an hour away from Indianapolis. As for the game itself, here's an interesting trend: In each of the last three seasons, the defending Super Bowl champion has opened the season at home on Thursday...and won. Advantage, Indianapolis. The Saints, however, are 7-2 against the spread in their last nine road games. Advantage, Saints.
Straight up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: New Orleans

Up next - the rest of the Week 1 picks.

2007-08 Season Preview

The NFL season kicks off in less than a week, and so it’s time for the annual season preview. To be honest, I had grander plans for this correspondence, but I really wasn’t satisfied with the quality of the piece. Maybe I’m burned out and couldn’t commit the time necessary to get my points across, or maybe I’m just tired of the constant Michael con-Vick-t coverage. Either way, the preview is a down and dirty look at the upcoming campaign, including division standings, conference champions, MVP, rookie and coach of the year, and of course, your Super Bowl XLII champions (and if you’re surprised that I’ve tabbed the Philadelphia Eagles to hoist the Lombardi Trophy in Arizona next February, well then you’re obviously new to this).

Without further ado, the 2007-08 Season Preview (* indicates playoff team).

American Football Conference

East
1. New England Patriots* – The Pats are loaded from top to bottom. Tom Brady’s got a cache of weapons, and Bill Belichick knows how to deploy them all. As long as Randy Moss isn’t divisive, New England will be hard to stop.
2. New York Jets – Thanks to a tougher schedule (and due credit to Eric Mangini’s rookie campaign), the Jets won’t sneak up on anyone this season.
3. Miami Dolphins – They’re adjusting to new coach and a new quarterback, but they return the same old defense. Maybe too old, but that’s to be determined.
4. Buffalo Bills – Marv Levy couldn’t keep any of their free agents, and subsequently the Bills have slipped. Personally, I think rookie RB Marshawn Lynch will flop.

North
1. Pittsburgh Steelers* – Under Omar Epps, the Steelers will be more balanced on offense, yet still menacing on defense. I think Pittsburgh is the team to beat in this division.
2. Baltimore Ravens* – The addition of RB Willis McGahee should be mutually beneficial. Baltimore’s defense led the league in turnover margin a year ago.
3. Cincinnati Bengals – Sadly, they still don’t have the defense to compliment their explosive offense. Ocho Cinco has promised to put on a show this year. I’ll be watching.
4. Cleveland Browns – The future is bright, but the present is cloudy. QB Brady Quinn should be starting by Week 4 (if not sooner).

South
1. Indianapolis Colts* – Yes, they lost a lot on defense, but they’re still the class of the division. Like Phil Mickelson after busting out and winning a major, Peyton Manning seems poised for multiple championships.
2. Jacksonville Jaguars – The Jags are a dangerous team, but not a deadly one. Seems like they should have done more by now, doesn’t it?
Note: Just as I was getting ready to publish, the news broke that the Jaguars would start David Garrard at QB and cut ties with Byron Leftwich. I don’t think that changes my order of finish in the division, but where Leftwich lands might. I better get this out before I have to re-write the whole thing.
3. Tennessee Titans – It’s a crying shame they didn’t do much to help Vince Young in the off-season. Looks like VY will have to carry them again.
4. Houston Texans – Houston is an offensive lineman or two away from climbing out of the cellar. So far, it looks like the Texans got the better of the Matt Schaub trade.

West
1. San Diego Chargers* – Widely regarded as the most talented on the field, the Chargers are breaking in a new coach and new coordinators. Will the new regime be able to do what the old one couldn’t? They’d better, or they won’t be able to justify canning 14-2 Marty Schottenheimer.
2. Denver Broncos* – A perennial playoff contender, the Broncos added RB Travis Henry, who is good when healthy, but that’s been the problem. Their defense is good enough to get them to the playoffs.
3. Kansas City Chiefs – Sorry, LJ, but history hasn’t been kind to 400+ carry running backs the year after. Plus, the Chiefs have unresolved issues at QB.
4. Oakland Raiders – Commitment to Rebuilding.

National Football Conference

East
1. Philadelphia Eagles* – QB Donovan McNabb is back, and with the emergence of RB Brian Westbrook as an every down back (told you), the offense is finally well-balanced. The defense should be better despite waiving vocal leader Jeremiah Trotter. The Birds still rule the roost in the NFC East.
2. New York Giants – It’s been an interesting off-season for the Giants. Tiki Barber retired, Mike Strahan may do the same, and Eli Manning hasn’t fulfilled his promise yet. Tom Coughlin looks like a lame duck.
3. Washington Redskins – They may finally have their QB in Jason Campbell, and they’re deep at running back with Clinton Portis and Ladell Betts. But their defense stinks, and even Tom Coughlin thinks Joe Gibbs is a lame duck.
4. Dallas Cowboys – They suck.

North
1. Chicago Bears* – If only their QB could hold on to the football.
2. Minnesota Vikings – The Vikes are my sleeper team, as first noted last December. They’re heaping a lot on QB Tavaris Jackson, who coach Brad Childress says reminds him of a young Donovan McNabb. That’s some high praise.
3. Detroit Lions – Lions QB Jon Kitna says they have the talent to win 10 games this season. I say, maybe they do, but no they won’t.
4. Green Bay Packers – Seriously, Brett. Feel free to ride off into that sunset any year now.

South
1. New Orleans Saints* – Like most, I was surprised by the Saints a year ago. Like many, I don’t think they were a flash in the pan. The Saints probably run the best offense in the NFL, and the rest of their division is down.
2. Carolina Panthers – The Panthers are easily the most enigmatic team in the NFL. They could be great, or they could tank. It will kind of depend on the play of QB Jake Del-overrated (or they guy who should be starting, David Carr).
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Is Jon Gruden on the hot seat in Tampa? If he is, I don’t know that a four-quarterback rotation is going to do anything to save him. Will the real Cadillac Williams please stand up?
4. Atlanta Falcons – They’ll be better off without a con-Vick-ted felon at quarterback. And they weren’t even that good last year.

West
1. St. Louis Rams* – In what may be the most balanced division in football, the Rams seemingly have it all on offense. And just enough on defense.
2. Seattle Seahawks* – This has been Seattle’s division to lose for the last three or four years. This year, I think they finally will.
3. San Francisco 49ers* – San Francisco is certainly on the way up – good young QB, stud RB, free agents galore on defense. But they’re about a year away from being a factor, especially in this division.
4. Arizona Cardinals – The Cardinals are everyone’s darling, the majority expecting them to make the playoffs. While I think they’ll be better, I’m not sure they’ll be in the running for the ultimate home game.

AFC Championship: New England over Indianapolis – Like a year ago, the Patriots and Colts are probably the two best teams in the AFC. Unlike a year ago (but as they’ve done so often in the past), the Pats will advance.

NFC Championship: Philadelphia over New Orleans – Another playoff rematch from 2007 with a different result. McNabb said it was time for the Eagles to "seal the deal." Winning the NFC is a step towards that deal.

Super Bowl XLII: Philadelphia over New England – At the risk of going Chris Berman (whose career evidently jumped the shark about three years ago), New England and Philly meet for the championship. The Eagles will exact some overdue revenge for Super Bowl XXXIV, and the city will claim its first title since 1983. That is, unless the Fightin’ Phils sneak into the playoffs and shock the world. More on this in a minute…

NFL MVP: Donovan McNabb, Philadelphia – McNabb was on an MVP-pace before shredding his knee last season. As he goes, so go the Birds, and that is the textbook definition of an MVP.

Coach of the Year: Bill Belichick, New England – As mentioned before, holding this team of talented players together will be harder than it seems, especially when one of those players hasn’t gotten along with anyone, anywhere in his career.

Rookie of the Year: Adrian Peterson, Minnesota – This kid is the real deal. I thought he should have won the Heisman Trophy his freshman year at Oklahoma. Injuries pushed him out of the spotlight a little bit, but he’s probably the most NFL-ready back to enter the league in recent memory.

********************************************************************

Coming soon - "Ant’s Expert NFL Picks." The picks are basically the meat and potatoes of this site. This will be year six of this little experiment that proves I am as qualified as an "Expert" as any of the talking heads you see on TV, or any of the writers you read. My lifetime record currently stands at 814-465-1 (.636) straight up and 649-613-18 (.514) against the spread.

And, as always, we will follow two general principles when making the picks:

1. I will ALWAYS pick the Eagles to win and cover, regardless of opponent or location.
2. I will NEVER pick Dallas to win or cover, regardless of opponent or location.

All other games will be picked objectively, without the same gimmicks you get from other sites. For instance, I don’t pick an "Upset of the Week." As I’ve said before, I won’t be forced to pick an upset just to meet some criteria. By the same token, I won’t name a "Lock of the Week." I think all of my picks are locks. Otherwise, I wouldn’t pick them. The same general disclaimer still applies – the picks are for entertainment purposes only. If you choose to bet money, your car, your house, or your kid, I won’t be held responsible for your losses. I will, however, accept kickbacks if you prosper.

********************************************************************

A quick baseball take before I go. The Phillies have used 18 pitchers this year and have had 29 players at one point or another on the disabled list, yet after completing a four-game sweep of the Mets, they sit only two games out of the NL East lead. Centerfielder Aaron Rowand, a member of the world champion Chicago White Sox in 2005, was asked if he got the same kind of feeling from this club as he did in 2005. He said he did, and quite frankly I do, too. This team reminds me of the ’93 club that just refused to give up, on a game or a season, regardless of the situation. Manager Charlie Manuel, who has taken his fair share of criticism, deserves a lot of the credit for holding this team together, and they never stopped believing.

What an October it could be in Philadelphia.

Offseason News

With all do deference to Pearl Jam, yes I’m still alive. Just because I’ve been down and out doesn’t mean there hasn’t been anything happening around the NFL.

And while there are many items I’ll touch on (including a dog-fighting ring with Mike Vick playing the role of Don King, Roger Goodell’s own brand of NFL justice, and Ocho Cinco vs. Mr. Ed), I’d be remiss if I didn’t open with the Eagles, and Donovan McNabb’s surprising return to the huddle at this week’s mini camp.

McNabb surprised many by taking part in non-contact drills yesterday and running plays with the first team offense a mere seven months after having surgery to repair a torn ACL. McNabb had been tracking towards a return by the opening of training camp on July 27th, but got a clean bill of health from the Eagles team doctors and participated in most of the practice. By all accounts, he looked as sharp as ever:

"He's where we'd hoped he would be. He's worked very hard to get to this spot . . . I thought he did a nice job. He looked strong." – Eagles head coach Andy Reid

"He was good; everything went smoothly, from my point of view…brought a little bit of normalcy back to practice. You're used to having Don back there every play, and just having him back kind of sets you on your way [preparing for the season] . . . He seems like the same Don to me" – Eagles wide receiver Reggie Brown

"I thought he looked great, he looked awesome. He definitely had some kick in his step. The ball was coming out pretty good." – Eagles quarterback Kevin Kolb

"Just having him out there is a great feeling. Our leader, that's our captain - he's back." – Eagles wide receiver Hank Baskett

You can’t overemphasize the impact McNabb’s presence has on the offense specifically and on the football team as a whole. The players said as much - he’s the man, he’s the leader, it’s his team. With any luck, McNabb will stay healthy, have a successful training camp, and regain his pro bowl form while leading the Eagles to the playoffs and beyond.

********************************************************************

In other news…

Falcons quarterback Michael Vick has been under scrutiny for his alleged involvement in a dog-fighting ring that was being run out of a house that was his property but not his residence in Virginia. Vick, of course, has denied all knowledge and involvement, despite the fact that anonymous sources place Ron Mexico at fights as early as 2001, when he was still an employee of Virginia Tech (I say "an employee" because he is rumored to have been throwing down twenty large at a dog fight, which is pretty good scratch for a college sophomore). Anyway, now that the Feds are involved, Mexico could be indicted, arrested, or incarcerated. He’s likely the next target in commissioner Roger Goodell’s crosshairs. A suspension of any length would usher in the Joey Harrington era in Atlanta. Yikes.

********************************************************************

Speaking of suspensions, Chicago Bears Man of the Year candidate Tank Johnson will miss the first eight games of the year, as Goodell suspended Johnson in the wake of his serving nearly two months in prison on weapons charges. In case you’re counting, Goodell’s body count now reads as follows:

Adam "Pac Man" Jones (TEN) – 16 games for being interviewed by police ten times, most recently for inciting a brawl at a Las Vegas strip club when he "made it rain" to the tune of $81K.

Chris Henry (CIN) – 8 games for being arrested four times in the last fourteen months. This is actually Henry’s second suspension, as he sat for two games last season.

Tank Johnson (CHI) – 8 games as described above.

********************************************************************

Patriots cornerback Asante Samuel, tagged as the team’s franchise player, has vowed to sit out until Week 10, as the Patriots have not signed him to a long-term deal. Samuel led the league in interceptions last season and established himself as a top-flight corner. Samuel was tendered a one-year $7.79 million deal, which he hasn’t signed. The Patriots have dealt with this type of stuff before and have proven to be unrelenting. Perhaps Samuel can ring up Deion Branch in Seattle to see what he has to say about this type of negotiating ploy.

********************************************************************

The Dolphins and Chiefs finally negotiated a trade sending Trent Green to Miami, meaning one-time NFL MVP candidate Daunte Culpepper is on his way out of South Beach. The Dolphins will attempt to trade or simply release Culpepper, leaving him free to sign anywhere. Some possible destinations being mentioned include Baltimore (which kind of makes sense) and Jacksonville (which makes less sense). Here are four teams not being mentioned where I think Culpepper could fit:

Minnesota – a quick peek at the Vikings depth chart makes this a no-brainer. I know Vikings brass likes Tavaris Jackson, but he’s young and unproven. Culpepper had a lot of success in the NFC North. Besides, I think I can beat out Brooks Bollinger and Tyler Thigpen for the back-up job in Minnesota.

Oakland – they just drafted JaMarcus Russell, who looks like Daunte Culpepper Jr., and the guy who will be keeping the seat warm for him (Andrew Walter) is on the shelf with a knee injury. Rather than risk Russell’s future by throwing him out there opening week, the Raiders could use Culpepper as that stopgap until Russell is ready.

Dallas – This is less about Culpepper and more about Tony Romo. After a hot start, teams got the book on him and he came back to Earth with a thud. Now that Drew Bledsoe has retired, Romo’s primary back up is 62-year old Brad Johnson. And, Culpepper has plenty of experience dealing with an egotistical, prima donna wide receiver who is all about himself.

One more thought on Culpepper. Why wouldn’t the Dolphins keep him as something of an insurance policy for Green? Green is 37 and coming off a disappointing year highlighted by a major concussion. How reliable is he? Are the Dolphins really better off with Cleo Lemon and John Beck lined up behind Green? That should tell you how far Culpepper has fallen.

********************************************************************

Bengals wide receiver Chad "Ocho Cinco" Johnson recently raced a horse named "Restore the Roar" for charity. Ocho Cinco won the raise, even talking trash to "The Roar" afterwards. Forget about the fact that the horse ran 200 meters while Ocho Cinco only ran 100. What if Johnson would have injured himself? Robert Edwards playing beach football at the Pro Bowl thinks this was a bad idea.

Nevertheless, Ocho said he wants to take on the best at other sports, for charity of course. He says he wants to spar with Floyd Mayweather, play one-on-one against Kobe Bryant or LeBron James, and race Jeff Gordon for a few laps. Somewhere a FOX television executive is salivating.

********************************************************************

And now, barring any major developments, I’ll be taking my annual summer hiatus, returning somewhere in August with the 2007-08 Season Preview. In the meantime, I’ll be busy with the family, my hobbies (golf and hockey), and my guilty pleasures (sudoku, XBox, and fantasy baseball). Talk to you during training camp.

2007 Draft Wrap Up

Allow me to preface this by saying I have questioned the Eagles’ collective thinking in terms of the draft before, and it’s largely been proven that Andy Reid is more often right than wrong. So take this with a grain of salt.

After the Eagles traded for Takeo Spikes and filled a glaring need at linebacker, the buzzword regarding their 2007 draft strategy was “depth.” The implication was that the Eagles, in pre-draft form, were capable of winning the division and maybe making a run at the NFC championship. Much of the speculation was that the Eagles needed to address a few positions, primarily in the secondary, along the D-Line, and maybe even at receiver, running back, and tight end.

So naturally, they traded out of the first round (with Dallas, no less) and in the second round they selected…

…University of Houston QB Kevin Kolb.

Now, other than the fact that they traded with the Cowboys, I don’t have a problem with the Eagles moving out of round one. They most likely did so because the players they were targeting at #26 - safeties Michael Griffin, Reggie Nelson, and Brandon Meriweather - were all off the board. I also don’t necessarily have a problem with them drafting a quarterback. I do, however, disagree with this quarterback. Especially in this spot. I mean, he’s Kevin Kolb.

Kevin Kolb?!?

Look, there’s not a bigger Eagles fan on the planet than me, so I hope Kolb turns out to be sensational. At the same time, I’m a huge Donovan McNabb fan. Has there ever been a superstar athlete who has to endure more strife and criticism than McNabb? He has been a target for the national and local media. He has had his leadership qualities questioned by his teammates (well, by one unnamed prima-donna wide receiver, anyway). He has been repeatedly booed by the fans. And through it all, he has maintained his poise, composure, and positive demeanor.

So here’s yet another controversy he has to deal with. My belief is that “5” will do what he always does – smile, laugh, and just play ball. The bottom line is, this guy is still an elite quarterback in this league. After all he’s been through, the Eagles owe him the opportunity to rehabilitate his injured knee and help return the team to prominence.

I may be one of the select few who believe he can do just that. It seems to me that drafting Kolb is the warning shot fired across McNabb’s bough. Hopefully it also isn’t the straw that breaks the camel’s back.

****************************************

So what happened to “depth?” Well, the Eagles took a defensive lineman in the second round (DE Victor Abiamiri out of Notre Dame), a running back in the third (Penn State’s Tony Hunt), a safety in the fifth (Clemson’s C.J. Gaddis), and a corner in the sixth (Rashad Barksdale from Albany). Can any of the aforementioned contribute this year? I’m not sure. My guess is Hunt can be that big back the Eagles have needed for quite some time. And if Gaddis can tackle at all, he could supplant Sean Considine, who was last seen hugging the air where Reggie Bush once stood in the playoffs.

But when you’re talking about getting contributions from guys taken in the fifth and sixth rounds, you’re really reaching. The rare exceptions aside (Tom Brady, sixth round draft pick), the players selected on the second day of the draft are more concerned with making the roster than they are with cracking the starting line up.

The early-round guys, however, should in theory compete for playing time right away. That’s why the timing of the Kolb pick is so curious. Never mind the fact that McNabb is an all-pro. Didn’t the Eagles just sign A.J. Feeley to a three-year deal? Didn’t they add veteran Kelly Holcomb in the Spikes deal? So with three veterans under contract (and Koy Detmer waiting in the wings in case David Akers needs a holder), where does Kolb fit in? Does he at all?

One thought that was floated during the draft (I believe it originated with ESPN’s Michael Smith, who I’m a big fan of by the way) was that maybe Kolb will be the Eagles version of Matt Schaub. Schaub never really challenged Ron Mexico for the starting job in Atlanta but was coveted enough on the open market that the Falcons unloaded him for a package of draft picks, including a couple of second rounders. The problem is, Kolb has two leap frog at least two guys on the depth chart to even get where Schaub was. I don’t see this situation playing out very well.

****************************************

I’ve never been a big fan of grading a team’s draft class the day after the draft. After all, none of the draftees have played a down in the NFL. In truth, you can’t truly assess a group of draft picks until they’ve been in the league for a couple of years. However, I can say that there were a few teams that I thought had strong drafts this year:

Minnesota Vikings – The Vikings added stud RB Adrian Peterson in the first round, WR Sidney Rice in the second, and CB Marcus McCauley in the third. Peterson was head and shoulders above every other running back in the draft and has offensive rookie of the year potential. McCauley looked like a first rounder after his junior year at Fresno and had a little of a down year as a senior, which is why he fell. Rice may be the gem of the class for Minnesota. The first time I watched him play as a freshman at South Carolina, I thought he was going to be special. And while the Vikings didn’t draft a quarterback, they did take one in the second round in 2006, and they heartily believe in Tavaris Jackson. Minnesota has the look of a 2007 sleeper. You heard it here first.

Carolina Panthers – On the heels of a disappointing 2006, the Panthers did well to grab LB John Beason in round one, WR Dwayne Jarrett and C Ryan Kalil from USC in round two. Kalil can and likely will start immediately. Beason will get a look at middle linebacker in place of Dan Morgan, who can’t seem to stay healthy. And Jarrett reminds some of a young Keyshawn Johnson. In fact, he already took Johnson’s spot. This is a team that really wasn’t that far away a year ago. They could absolutely contend in the NFC South behind new starting quarterback David Carr (again, remember where you heard that).

Oakland Raiders – Not only did they land a potential franchise QB in JaMarcus Russell first overall, but then they got an above-average tight end in Arizona State’s Zach Miller and might have gotten the steal of the draft with RB Michael Bush from Louisville. Bush broke his leg in the Cardinals’ season-opener a year ago, but before his injury he was getting some Heisman run. He’s a big, strong kid who, when healthy, can be a productive if not dominant back in this league. Oakland may not be good right away, but they have certainly put the pieces in place for a Raider resurgence in the near future. That future will not include Randy Moss, as he was dealt to the Patriots on draft Sunday. More on Moss in a minute.

Cleveland Browns – After locking up a bookend left tackle Joe Thomas, the Browns traded back into the first round to take hometown boy Brady Quinn. They also took a flier on Eric Wright, a CB out of UNLV who began his college career at Southern Cal but ran afoul of the law. His character is a question mark, especially in Roger Goddell’s suspend first, ask questions later NFL. Wright, like Marcus McCauley, is a guy that has first-round talent and could prove to be a steal in the third round.

There were also some teams (besides the Eagles) whose drafts were sub-par. The Texans didn’t do anything to address their biggest area of need, the offensive line. Tennessee reached for a RB, Chris Henry from Arizona, who had 900 or so rushing yards in his entire college career. And the Giants could have done something about their O-line, but didn’t.

Of course, time will tell if these drafts look as good (or bad) on the field as they do on paper.

****************************************

Here’s something that flew under the radar a little bit. During an interview with ESPN guys on Sunday at the draft, Eagles coach Andy Reid made a comment to guest draft commentator Keyshawn Johnson about coming to “play and score some touchdowns for him.” Johnson immediately responded playfully, “That’s tampering!” Reid quickly backed off, but now that Johnson is a free agent, you’ve got to wonder if Reid may take a look at him. Maybe Big Red knew something the rest of us didn’t.

I’m not sure I’d like that move from the Eagles perspective. I’m fine with the receiving corps as it is. I like Reggie Brown and Kevin Curtis, and I really think Hank Baskett will make major contributions this year. I’m not sure where Johnson would fit in. He’s also been a problem child in Tampa and Dallas. This isn’t like when the Eagles got TOFU and that vaulted them from NFC playoff team to Super Bowl contender. Johnson is on the downside of his career, and he’s probably not worth the headache he would likely be.

****************************************

The biggest NFL story that occurred during the draft really had nothing to do with the draft itself. The New England Patriots shipped a fourth round pick to Oakland in exchange for Randy Moss. The move opened a lot of eyes in Patriots nation...



Moss immediately restructured his contract (as did golden boy Tom Brady to make it all fit under the salary cap) and preached to be on his best behavior. If that actually happens, this trade can only be classified as highway robbery. Think about the Patriots now as opposed to last year. They have upgraded to Moss and Donte Stallworth at WR in place of Reche Caldwell and Jabar Gaffney. Defensive menace Adalius Thomas is in the mix at LB. And though Corey Dillon retired, that just means more touches for Laurence Maroney. This is a team that was in the AFC Championship game a year ago. Right now, you’ve got to say it’s the Patriots, then everybody else.

04/20 Quick Hits

A couple of quick hitters as I ponder who the Phillies will hire as their next manager…

My mock draft was picked up by a Washington Redskins fan site, which I’ve linked this site to. I also linked to a D.C. sports blog, which is pretty good reading. Washington, like Philly. is a great sports town. Gilbert Arenas may the most entertaining player in the NBA (not the best, mind you – I’m a Kobe guy). The Capitals have a dynamic duo of Alexander Ovechkin and Alexander Semin. The Nationals are opening a new park next year. But despite the fact that they have all four major sports, Washington, like Philly, lives and dies by its football team. And, they hate the Cowboys almost as much as we do.

Another thing going for D.C.? They’ve got a great radio station in DC 101. Anytime I’m cruising up or down I-95, I pick up DC 101 as early as possible and listen to it until it turns to static. Well, unless it’s mid-day and the Jim Rome show is on. I am a clone, after all.

This week’s admission from potential top-ten picks WR Calvin Johnson, DE Gaines Adams, and DT Amobi Okoye that they have used marijuana is getting a lot of run, like it’s a cause for concern. You mean college kids experiment with pot? I am both shocked and dismayed. What’s next, are you going to tell me that these guys have had beer to? Look, I’m guessing the question that was posed to these guys was more “have you ever smoked” as opposed to “are you a habitual smoker,” and their owning up to it now is certainly better than one of them failing a drug test. Something tells me Johnson, Adams, and Okoye will still go early on the 28th.

The irony of this story breaking around April 20th is not lost on me. I’m not sure why they call this the “Stoner’s Holiday.” If anybody is sitting at home all baked up today and want to clue me in, please do so (nfl_ant@hotmail.com).

In a quasi-related story, former Dolphins running back and current Toronto Argonaut Ricky Williams wants back in the NFL, and rumors are he may land in St. Louis to back up Steven Jackson. After being relegated to the CFL, I don’t think Ricky would have a problem being a back up in the NFL. Plus, you can never have enough good backs. Seems like a win-win to me.

Here’s a thought on Dom Imus that might surprise you – I don’t think he should have been fired. Look, I’m a Stern guy from way back (not so much anymore since he’s on satellite now). For years, I defended his right to say whatever the hell he wanted (as guaranteed in the first amendment to the Constitution). I don’t like religious watchdog groups telling you what you can and can’t hear. Much as Imus has the right so free speech, listeners have the right to change the channel, or turn the radio off altogether. Is Imus a bigot? Perhaps. Should the Rutgers women be offended? Absolutely. Does his firing have an affect on me? Depends on what the local sports radio station puts on in his place. I guess if advertisers were starting to pull out and cost CBS a bunch of money, that’s a whole different animal. But I’d sound very hypocritical if I say he should have been fired.

Happy trails, Corey Dillon.

Ant's Second Annual Mock Draft

Before I get to the Mock Draft, a quick comment about Roger Goddell and the league’s new conduct policy. As he’s hinted at before, Goddell instituted a new code of conduct for his players whereby they will finally be held accountable for all of their legal transgressions and other questionable behavior. Under the new policy, he suspended Bengals WR Chris Henry for eight games in 2007, and banned Titans CB Adam “Pac Man” Jones for the entire year. Both have had multiple run-ins with the law. The suspensions opened many eyes around the league...



While I don’t have a problem with the policy on the surface, and I don’t necessarily disagree with the suspensions handed down, it is a little curious that the actions of the suspended players occurred before the policy was in effect. Does this mean Ray Lewis will get four games for (allegedly) stabbing people at the Super Bowl a few years back? It seems a little odd that the policy is retro active.

One other thing – Goddell said that he will not always wait for the legal system and due process to run their course before suspending a player. As we learned from the recently dismissed Duke Lacrosse case, rushing to judgment without letting the legal process work can complicate matters. Goddell may want to check in with former Durham district attorney Mike Nifong about that one.

And now, the mock draft. I started this thing a few weeks back, then paused while waiting to see of the Redskins were going to trade for Lance Briggs. Since that deal fell through, I picked up where I left off. As a general disclaimer, this is my opinion of who should go where based on the drafting team’s needs and the drafting player’s reputation. Unlike some of the other mock drafts you’ll find, this will be the only iteration I publish. I also don't predict trades, as some posts do (how, I'm not sure, but whatever).

With that said, I'm in kind of a hurry to publish this, as the Dolphins impending trade or release of Daunte Culpepper could throw an enormous monkey wrench in my system. How? Assuming the Dolphins cut him, Oakland may take a flyer on him to reunite him with Randy Moss, then Oakland would be clear to take Calvin Johnson first. Jon Gruden really wants Johnson and has been trying to negotiate a trade with Detroit to move up to the number two spot, presuming that the Raiders take Russell. If Johnson goes first, Tampa could try to trade down. See how messy this could get? That's why I'm publishing now.

1. Oakland Raiders: JaMarcus Russell, QB, LSU – For all their posturing about taking Calvin Johnson and drafting another quarterback later (Trent Walters out of Stanford? Are you serious?), Russell is too good to pass up, especially if they have any intention of salvaging Randy Moss’ career.

2. Detroit Lions: Calvin Johnson, WR, Georgia Tech – It would seem a little comical and totally illogical for the Lions to take another wide receiver in the first round, having used three of their last four top picks on receivers (two of whom have been total busts). But Johnson is as legit as they come. If Matt Millen passes on Johnson, he’ll regret it.

3. Cleveland Browns: Adrian Peterson, RB, Oklahoma – The trade of Reuben Droughns to the Giants makes this pick almost a slam dunk. So does Peterson’s potential. He’s a strong inside runner who also has the ability to bust it outside. Injuries may be a concern, but not enough for him to fall past the Browns.

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Joe Thomas, OT, Wisconsin – With Jon Gruden’s dream of landing Calvin Johnson vaporized, the Buccaneers need to look at rebuilding their lines. While there are many defensive linemen worthy of consideration here, Thomas projects as a can’t-miss tackle who should start immediately and be tasked with guarding Jeff Garcia’s blind side.

5. Arizona Cardinals: Gaines Adams, DT, Clemson – Speaking of dashed dreams, the Cardinals have to be hoping the Thomas falls to them in the five spot, as he would tremendously help their anemic running game. But I think he’ll be gone, and five may be a little high for Levi Brown, so the Cards should look D-line. Adams is a pure speed rush end with tremendous upside.

6. Washington Redskins: Alan Branch; DT; Michigan – Washington’s defense took a few steps backwards last year, mainly because they couldn’t put any kind of pressure on the quarterback. They are in a great position to draft, because they’ll have their pick of the D-line litter here. My gut tells me they’ll go with Branch, who has the size to play tackle and the agility to play the end.

7. Minnesota Vikings: Brady Quinn, QB, Notre Dame – Maybe the most NFL-ready quarterback to enter the draft in quite some time, the Vikings have to jump at the opportunity to take Quinn. They missed out on David Carr and only have two quarterbacks on their depth chart – Tavaris Jackson and Brooks Bollinger. Quinn would be #1 by April 29th.

8. Atlanta Falcons: LaRon Landry, S, LSU – The Falcons need help along both lines, so Jamaal Anderson and Levi Brown are possibilities here. Landry, however, was a four-year starter at LSU, is excellent in run support and has above average ball skills for a safety. Plus, he’s a hard-hitter in the Roy Williams-Sean Taylor mold. In short, Landry is a complete football player who should contribute right away.

9. Miami Dolphins: Jamaal Anderson, DE, Arkansas – If Gaines Adams is the #1 defensive end on the board, Anderson might be 1-A. Miami could use a franchise-type quarterback, but with JaMarcus Russell and Brady Quinn gone, the Dolphins could add a guy to learn from (and eventually supplant) reigning defensive player of the year Jason Taylor.

10. Houston Texans: Levi Brown, OT, Penn State – I have previously mentioned how the Texans have neglected the offensive line for so long that they had to do something about it now. Brown weighs about 325 pounds and is a very good run-blocker who can play either right or left tackle. He’s an upgrade at either spot and hearing his name should make Ahman Green and Matt Schaub very happy.

11. San Francisco 49ers: Dwayne Jarrett, WR, USC – The 49ers look like they’re going to be a serious player in the NFC West, having signed free agent CB Nate Clements and S Michael Lewis. Maybe the only thing lacking is bona fide #1 wide receiver. Jarrett fits the bill for them as a guy with outstanding size and hands who makes highlight-reel catches.

12. Buffalo Bills: Patrick Willis, LB, Mississippi – Assuming Marv Levy is awake and realizes that the draft is happening, the Bills have to look at their defense, which has been ravaged by free agency and trades. Willis is the premiere inside linebacker in this draft, and should be favored here over a cornerback like Leon Hall.

13. St. Louis Rams: Amobi Okoye, DE, Louisville – Having addressed offensive issues via free agency by signing WR Drew Bennett and TE Randy McMichael, the Rams can focus their draft energy on defense. Though only 19, Okoye has NFL size (6’ 2”, 300 lbs), yet is a good athlete. Plus, he is of high moral character. In other words, he’s the anti- Leonard Little.

14. Carolina Panthers: Greg Olsen, TE, Miami – My Panthers sources tell me that if Willis is still available here, they’d take him in an instant, ask him to start right away, and force Dan Morgan into early retirement. Since he’ll be gone, they’ll look to add another weapon for new starting quarterback David Carr (remember where you heard that when it happens). The tight end crop in this draft is thin, with Olsen as the highest-rated. While he’s not much for run blocking, Olsen is a very good receiver.

15. Pittsburgh Steelers: Anthony Spencer, DE/LB, Purdue – Spencer may be a bit of a stretch here, as he’s not an ideal defensive end in a 3-4 scheme. But he’s got the speed and versatility to play outside linebacker and rush the quarterback or cover a tight end. Spencer could take the place of the departed Joey Porter in Pittsburgh (that is, if he starts talking a bunch of smack and punching opposing offensive linemen at blackjack tables).

16. Green Bay Packers: Marshawn Lynch, RB, California – While we still don’t know if Aaron Rodgers is the quarterback of the future in Green Bay, we do know that Noah Herron is likely not the running back of the future. Lynch is 215 lbs and is a tough, between-the-tackles runner who is also a better receiver out of the backfield than he gets credit for.

17. Jacksonville Jaguars: Reggie Nelson, S, Florida – Nelson may not possess ideal size but he’s got great speed and range, and can return punts, as he did at Florida. He rarely gets caught out of position, and can recover quickly when he does. Plus, he’s a ball hawk, accounting for seven turnovers for the Gators a year ago. Nelson has defensive rookie of the year written all over him.

18. Cincinnati Bengals: Ted Ginn, Jr., WR, Ohio State – Even though the Bengals will only be without Chris Henry for half of the season, a receiver wouldn’t be a bad choice. Ginn is a burner whose stock may have slipped a little due to a foot injury suffered in the BCS Championship game. Ginn’s ability to contribute as a kick and punt returner makes him an immediate impact guy, much like Chicago’s Devin Hester last year.

19. Tennessee Titans: Leon Hall, CB, Michigan – Speaking of replacing suspend players, the Titans should grab the best available corner on the board at this time to ease the loss of Adam “Pac Man” Jones. Hall certainly fits the bill. He’s got good size and instincts against the run and the pass.

20. New York Giants: Adam Carriker, DE, Nebraska – The Giants appear to be replete with defensive ends, but both Michael Strahan and Osi Umienyora are better-suited to rushing the quarterback. Carriker is a tall, run-stuffing end who can play situationally and maybe develop his pass rush skills.

21. Denver Broncos: Jarvis Moss, DE, Florida – The Broncos trade for Dre Bly fills the void created by the death of Darrent Williams. A linebacker is a possibility here with Al Wilson now kicked to the curb. But the Denver D-line needs rebuilding. Having watched Moss play a few times last year, he reminded me a little of another tall, lanky, freakish defensive end out of Florida – Jevon Kearse.

22. Dallas Cowboys: Darrelle Revis, CB, Pittsburgh – Somewhere in this draft, Dallas has to take a quarterback to back up Butterfingers Romo, but it won’t be until a later round. Instead, they’ll go secondary in the first round. Revis had a great workout, which helped his status tremendously. He’s got excellent speed and could be an effective return man while he learns the pro game.

23. Kansas City Chiefs: Dwayne Bowe, WR, LSU – It warrants mentioning that Kansas City’s starting receivers are Eddie Kennison and Samie Parker. To say they need help at the position goes without saying. Bowe has outstanding size and speed, and he’s got the kind of leaping ability to make him an immediate red-zone threat. He’s the kind of compliment to Larry Johnson and Tony Gonzalez that the Chiefs have needed for some time.

24. New England Patriots: Lawrence Timmons, LB, Florida State – When he first declared for the draft, Timmons projected as the number one linebacker and a potential top-ten overall pick. But his workout was less than stellar, and his stock has dropped. He’s a big hitter who can go sideline-to-sideline, but he’s not overwhelmingly big. He’d be a good outside backer in a 3-4 scheme, which the Patriots run.

25. New York Jets: Jon Beason, LB, Miami – The Jets could use a corner or a linebacker, so Aaron Ross and Chris Houston are also possibilities. I think Beason goes here though. As is the case with most guys from “The U,” Beason has good instincts, recognizes the play and reacts quickly. Plus, he’s a sure tackler on defense and in kick coverage.

26. Philadelphia Eagles: Michael Griffin, S, Texas – Prior to acquiring Takeo Spikes, I could have seen the Eagles looking at Timmons, Beason, or Paul Posluszny. But the run defense is in need of an upgrade, and Griffin is a tackling machine who is fantastic against the run. Griffin would challenge Sean Considine for a starting spot this year, and after he learns the league could eventually replace Brian Dawkins (currently irreplaceable).

27. New Orleans Saints: Aaron Ross, CB, Texas – After last year’s resurgence, the Saints will be looking to take the next step, and the secondary is a glaring area of need, especially cornerback. I think the Saints will go with Ross over Chris Houston. Ross is taller, stronger, and also has the versatility to play safety.

28. New England Patriots: Chris Houston, CB, Arkansas – In the event that current franchise player Asante Samuel is shown the door next year (a la Adam Vinatieri), the Pats should begin thinking about his replacement. Houston isn’t the tallest corner out there, but what he lacks in size he makes up for in speed (4.32 40-yard dash) and cover skills.

29. Baltimore Ravens: Paul Posluszny, LB, Penn State – It’s always defense first with the Ravens, and with Adalius Thomas gone for New England, that trend should continue. Posluszny has experience in both the 4-3 and 3-4 defensive schemes, and should be able to adapt to whichever system the Ravens choose to run. He’s the all-time leading tackler at a school renowned for it’s linebackers, which should tell you what kind of player he is.

30. San Diego Chargers: Robert Meachem, WR, Tennessee – Adding another weapon around the still-developing Philip Rivers would be beneficial. No doubt the offensive-minded Norv Turner would agree. Meachem’s speed is his biggest asset, and he’d fit in well in an offense with guys like LaDanian Tomlinson and Antonio Gates commanding a lot of attention.

31. Chicago Bears: Charles Johnson, DE, Georgia – It’s still entirely possible that the Bears will either trade outside linebacker Lance Briggs before the draft and need to come up with a replacement for him. But as it stands right now, Briggs is a Bear. Chicago might be better suited strengthening the defensive line so that they are prepared to replace Tank Johnson the next time he runs afoul of the law (which shouldn’t be very long).

32. Indianapolis Colts: Justin Harrell, DT, Tennessee – The Super Bowl champions have suffered significant losses on the defensive side of the ball, with one-time starters DT Monte Reagor, CB Nick Harper, LB Cato June, and S Mike Doss all gone. Harrell is a run-stuffing tackle who should bolster a lackluster Colts run defense.

TKO

“I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Eagles try to make a deal in which they package one of their linemen for some help at linebacker.” – Ant, March 23, 2007

The Eagles took advantage of Bernie Lomax, or whoever is calling the shots in the Bills front office, acquiring pro-bowl linebacker Takeo Spikes and back-up quarterback Kelly Holcomb from Buffalo in exchange for defensive tackle Darwin Walker and a conditional late-round draft pick in 2008.

In case you couldn’t tell, I think this is an outstanding deal for the Birds. Spikes is an immediate upgrade at the strong side linebacker spot that has been occupied by Dhani Jones for the last two years. Now, with Jeremiah Trotter in the middle flanked by Spikes and Omar Gaither (who played so well on the weak side last year), the LB corps looks like a strength instead of a glaring area of concern.

Position by position, here’s how the Eagles depth chart should look in 2007:

DE - Jevon Kearse (Trent Cole)
DT - Mike Patterson (Monte Reagor)
DT - Brodrick Bunkley (Sam Rayburn)
DE - Darren Howard (Juqua Thomas)
LB - Omar Gaither (Matt McCoy)
LB - Jeremiah Trotter
LB - Takeo Spikes (Dhani Jones/Chris Gocong)
CB - Sheldon Brown (William James)
S - Brian Dawkins
S - Sean Considine (Quentin Mikell)
CB - Lito Sheppard (Joselio Hanson)

Bottom line is, that’s not a bad looking defense on paper. It allows the Eagles to draft for depth in the secondary and at linebacker instead of needing an impact guy right off the bat. It also means they could look at the offensive side of the ball if the right guy was available.

Holcomb, meanwhile, is a smart quarterback with sub-par arm strength who will be content to hold the clipboard as the third-string guy. In other words, he’s Koy Detmer. He, too, gives the Eagles much-needed depth at quarterback, and extra insurance in the event that “5” is not 100% when the season starts. This is an excellent, purposeful deal executed by the Eagles brain trust.

As for the Bills, I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, who knows what the hell they are doing. Spikes follows Willis McGahee, Nate Clements, and London Fletcher-Baker out of Buffalo on what appears to be a one way street.

Stump the Schaub

This is why I don’t do a mock draft in January.

The big NFL news of the week was the Houston Texans acquisition of Atlanta Falcons backup quarterback Matt Schaub for a couple of second-round draft picks, one in 2007 and one in 2008. The teams also agreed to swap first round picks this year, with Atlanta moving up to #8 and Houston back to #10. Following the trade, the Texans inked Schaub to a six-year, $48 million contract and said they would attempt to trade incumbent starter and former first overall pick David Carr.

If I’m a Falcons fan, I’m doing back flips over this deal. Schaub was scheduled to be an unrestricted free agent at the end of 2007, and as Atlanta has about a billion dollars tied up in Ron Mexico, Schaub would have bolted to become a starter someplace else. Plus, look at his numbers. It’s not like he’s Joe Montana or anything. Now the Falcons have three of the top 44 picks in this year’s draft, which is considered to be a deep one by many accounts. Atlanta needs help along both lines, and could stay in the eight hole and hope for either Clemson’s Gaines Adams or Arkansas’ Jamaal Anderson. On the flip side, one rumor has them trying to trade up and steal hometown hero Calvin Johnson out of Georgia Tech. If they can pull that off, there may be a bronze statue of Arthur Blank outside of the Georgia Dome by opening day.

As for the Texans, the move signals an admission of failure. Prior to the ’06 draft, then-GM Charley Casserly tried to convince anyone who would listen that they didn’t need Vince Young or Reggie Bush because they already had Carr and Domanick Davis, and that Mario Williams was the next Reggie White…

Oops.

So far this off-season, the Texans have thrown big free agent dollars at Packers cast-off Ahman Green and made the Schaub deal. Problem is, they still haven’t addressed their biggest problem – the offensive line. I don’t care who your quarterback and running back are. If your line can’t run block or pass block, your skill players don’t stand a chance. If Houston drafts anything but O-linemen in April, their fans should engage in mass mutiny. It’s hard to believe Casserly is still unemployed.

Carr, meanwhile, will land on his feet (or on his back) somewhere. Miami, Minnesota, and Oakland are all possibilities, with the Vikings maybe being the most desirable. The Raiders will likely take JaMarcus Russell with the first pick, and Miami has shown interest in Kansas City’s Trent Green. Minnesota’s line is not bad, and Carr would only have to beat out Tavaris Jackson and Brooks Bollinger to win the starting job (which he might actually be able to do from his back).

Most of the feedback I’ve gotten on the blog this week has been positive, especially the use of the Reche Caldwell picture. I aim to please, so here you go.

New York native and Bills fan Jen in Cary, NC pointed out that in my previous post, I made mention
of the Bills and their inane trade of Willis McGahee with intentions of discussing in more detail, but never came back around to it. My bad. Here it is in a nutshell.

Is Marv Levy asleep at the wheel like Tony LaRussa?

The Bills were 7-9 last season and in the AFC wild card picture late into the year, which is impressive considering the depth of the AFC. So they follow that up by trading McGahee (arguably their most important offensive player) and letting pro-bowl corner Nate Clements (easily their best defensive player) walk as a free agent? How does that make sense? Do they really have that much faith in J.P. Losman? I’m curious to see what the Bills do in the draft.

The Eagles were active again this week, adding defensive tackle Monte Reagor to hopefully provide an inside pass-rushing presence. The move leaves Philly with a multitude of D-tackles, including former first-round picks Mike Patterson and Brodrick Bunkley. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Eagles try to make a deal in which they package one of their linemen for some help at linebacker. Denver is actively shopping middle backer Al Wilson, but the middle is the one spot where the Birds are strong. I don’t see Jeremiah Trotter shifting to the strong side, nor do I see Wilson changing positions.

Still, a deal of some sort could be in the works. And now that Andy Reid is back to work, he’ll be involved. It’s good to have "Big Red" back in the nest, and with any luck his family situation is stabilized and he can focus on keeping the Eagles atop the NFC East.

So, I had intentions of laying low until the mock draft, but the Schaub trade warranted a comment or two, since it had an impact on my projections. It’s in the works. Stay tuned.

The Abyss that is the NFL Off-season

What an off-season it has been so far. Since the Colts knocked off the Bears in Super Bowl XLI, we've seen big-name coaches resign, no-name coaches get hired, players get arrested for a variety of charges, and a team other than the Redskins signing every free agent in sight. Here's a quick recap.

Coaching Changes

The coaching carousel appears to have finally stopped. When it did, future Hall-of-Famers Bill Parcells and Bill Cowher were standing off to the side, while NFL re-treads Wade Phillips and Norv Turner were back on. In all, there were seven coaching changes to speak of.

Arizona: Out - Dennis Green; In - Ken Whisenhunt
Atlanta: Out - Jim Mora, Jr.; In - Bobby Petrino
Dallas: Out - Parcells; In - Phillips
Miami: Out - Nick Saban; In - Cam Cameron
Oakland: Out - Art Shell; In - Lane Kiffin
Pittsburgh: Out - Cowher; In - Omar Epps (actually, it's Mike Tomlin, but have you seen him?)
San Diego: Out - Marty Schottenheimer; In - Turner

Player Movement

Believe it or not, there have been a couple of legitimate trades so far this off-season. The Bills, for reasons unbeknowst to anyone, traded Willis McGahee to Baltimore for a gaggle of draft picks (more on Buffalo in a minute). Denver, looking for a corner to replace the deceased Darrent Williams, acquired Dre' Bly from Detroit for Tatum Bell and George Foster. Bly may be on the move again, as he has said repeatedly that he wants to play in Washington. The Bucs made the strangest trade, sending a draft pick to the Broncos for Jake Plummer within hours of signing free agent Jeff Garcia. Plummer immediately announced his retirement after the trade.

New England Owner Bob Kraft, doing his best Dan Snyder impersonation, has signed anyone and everyone he has desired. He grabbed LB Adalius Thomas from Baltimore, WR's Wes Welker from Miami, Kelley Washington from Cincinnati, and Donte' Stallworth from Philadelphia, and RB Sammy Morris from the Dolphins. Current Patriots receiver Reche Caldwell was extremely surprised by the spending spree...Other big dollars were bestowed upon OT Leonard Davis (seven years, $49 million from Dallas) and Joey Porter ($20 million guaranteed from Miami), among others.

Until yesterday (the Eagles signed WR Kevin Curtis to a multi-year deal), it was a pretty quiet free agency period for the Eagles. They did re-sign a couple of essential players (DT Juqua Thomas, S Quentin Mikell, QB A.J. Feeley), but most of the news in Philly was about the guys who left, including S Micahel Lewis, CB Rod Hood, Stallworth, and especially Garcia.

Before you chastise the Eagles for letting Garcia walk, don't forget that the initial groundswell in Philadelphia was for A.J. Feeley to step in for Donovan McNabb, and that is was more Brian Westbrook and not as much Garcia that was the catalyst for their late-season playoff push. I'm not saying Garcia was invaluable, but he wants to be a starter and wanted starter money, and the Eagles were not in a financial or depth position to make that happen. Personally, I'm still of the opinion that if the Eagles have to open 2007 with Feeley under center, they'll be just fine. That is, as long as #36 is behind him.

The Combine and Ensuing Draft

By all accounts, this year's draft class is loaded. It features two franchise-type quarterbacks (JaMarcus Russell, LSU and Brady Quinn, Notre Dame), a can't-miss running back (Adrian Peterson, Oklahoma), game-breaking wide receivers (Calvin Johnson, Gerogia Tech; Dwayne Jarrett, USC; Dwayne Bowe, LSU; Sidney Rice, South Carolina), a stud tackle (Joe Thomas, Wisconsin) and multiple pass-rushing defensive ends (Gaines Adams, Clemson). I have not finished my mock draft, but will do so prior to the Annual Selection Meeting.

Yours Truly

So how have I been keeping myself busy during this long, mild winter? Other than the essentials (being a husband and father, collecting a paycheck, playing hockey and golf), I've added a few new hobbies. My brother and sister-in-law to-be turned me on to Sudoku puzzles, which are more addicting than a Starbucks Venti Vanilla Latte. I picked up a book, started with the "Easy" puzzles, and am currently solving the "Very Hard" puzzles with regularity. I also found out that USA Today posts their puzzles daily to be completed on-line, which was great until Big Brother turned on the office's web site filter. Damn you, corporate watchdogs.

Anyway, I have rediscovered things like on-line poker and working out. I also jumped in a fantasy baseball league, which is free and will force me to pay attention to a May game between the Devil Rays and Royals. I'm actually pretty jacked up about the Phillies this year and think they are, as Jimmy Rollins has implied, the team to beat in the NL East. Screw the Mets. That's right, I said it!

In case you haven't noticed, I also re-designed this blog, mostly from a cosmetic perspective. What do you think? Direct any and all feedback to nfl_ant@hotmail.com.

Basically, I've just counting the days until football season starts again. The next milestone, in my mind, is the draft. I'll admit, I'm an NFL draft junkie and will actually sit and watch both days. But until then, I'll just keep on keeping on.

Before I get out of here, I have a bone to pick with the Worldwide Leader in Sports. I know there are many, like this guy, who can't get enough NFL. But there's got to be a better way for ESPN to keep football on the public's radar than doing predictions for next season before free agency, the draft, and training camps which always seem to feature injuries. Shouldn't you at least wait to see who is on a team before casting aspersions about their 2007 success or failure? Just my opinion.

Until the mock draft...