The Week 10 Picks

Welcome to the stretch drive.

As it stands right now. the Colts are chasing the ’72 Dolphins (again), they’ve already beaten the Broncos and Patriots, supposedly the class of the AFC, and they are getting healthy on defense. Meanwhile, in the NFC, there are ten teams (Chicago, New York, New Orleans, Seattle, Atlanta, Philadelphia, Carolina, Dallas, Minnesota, and St. Louis) with a legitimate shot at the six post-season spots. There are no more bye weeks, literally and figuratively. One off week could mean the difference between playing in January and drafting in the teens come April.

Without further ado, on to the games…

Sunday, November 12th, 2006

The Match-up: Cleveland (Off) @ Atlanta
The Skinny: Before the game was taken off the board due to injuries to Charlie Frye, Willie McGinest, and General Winslow, Atlanta was favored by eight. As a pick, it’s a no brainer, whether or not the aforementioned injured Browns play.
Straight Up: Atlanta
Against the Spread: Atlanta

The Match-up: Washington (+7.0) @ Philadelphia
The Skinny: I can’t emphasize how important this game is to both teams. After opening 4-1 and sitting atop everybody’s list, the Eagles have stumbled and are 4-4. Washington kept their hopes alive by beating Dallas last week. A win on Sunday could set the tone for the rest of the season.
Straight Up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia

The Match-up: San Diego (-1.0) @ Cincinnati
The Skinny: The Bengals are in disarray right now. Carson Palmer may not be 100% recovered from his knee injury, Rudi Johnson wants more carries, and Ocho Cinco only has two touchdowns on the year. Sitting two games behind Baltimore, another Cincinnati loss could be the final nail in the coffin.
Straight Up: San Diego
Against the Spread: San Diego

The Match-up: San Francisco (+6.0) @ Detroit
The Skinny: If there’s one team that gives me fits, it’s the Santa Clara 49ers. Just when I think I’ve got them figured out (they’ll give the Bears a fight, so take them plus the sixteen and a half), they burn me (no way they beat Minnesota). That being said, proceed with caution on this one.
Straight Up: Detroit
Against the Spread: Detroit

The Match-up: Baltimore (-7.0) @ Tennessee
The Skinny: Steve McNair returns to Tennessee to face Vince Young, who is perhaps the next Steve McNair. Young has been impressive, and the Ravens may be without Ray Lewis and Ed Reed. This one will be closer than it should be.
Straight Up: Baltimore
Against the Spread: Tennessee

The Match-up: Buffalo (+12.0) @ Indianapolis
The Skinny: Classic donut game for the Colts, coming off an emotional win in Foxboro and a trip to The Toilet to take on the Cowgirls next week. But the Bills are without Willis McGahee, and his absence will be too much to overcome.
Straight Up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Indianapolis

The Match-up: Houston (+10.5) @ Jacksonville
The Skinny: It would seem as though David Carr got the message sent by Gary Kubiak when he was benched a couple of weeks ago. The Texans had a lead late in the Meadowlands against the Giants, but couldn’t finish. Jacksonville is due for an offensive clunker, but David Garrard is 6-1 as a starter, so he gets the job done more often than not.
Straight Up: Jacksonville
Against the Spread: Houston

The Match-up: Kansas City (-1.0) @ Miami
The Skinny: Miami won their Super Bowl last week by beating Chicago. This week, they’ll have no answer for LJ and whichever quarterback wins the Herm Edwards sweepstakes.
Straight Up: Kansas City
Against the Spread: Kansas City

The Match-up: Green Bay (+5.5) @ Minnesota
The Skinny: Minnesota’s offense has amassed ten points in their last two games. Scoring seven in a loss to New England? Acceptable. Scoring three in a loss in San Francisco? Not so much.
Straight Up: Minnesota
Against the Spread: Minnesota

The Match-up: New York Jets (+10.5) @ New England
The Skinny: At 4-4, the Jets will have a look at the playoffs. They gave the Pats a battle in Week 2, and New England is dinged, especially in the secondary with Rodney Harrison on the shelf for a couple of weeks. The Jets may fall to 4-5, but they’ll go down swinging.
Straight Up: New England
Against the Spread: New York Jets

The Match-up: Denver (-9.0) @ Oakland
The Skinny: The good news for the Raiders is that this game is not being played on a Monday. After all, Oakland has scored as many points on Monday night this year as I have, and Raider quarterbacks have been sacked 18 times in those two contests. So they may get on the scoreboard against Denver, but don’t expect much more than that.
Straight Up: Denver
Against the Spread: Denver

The Match-up: Dallas (-7.0) @ Arizona
The Skinny: Classic TOFU last week – says undiagnosed narcolepsy causes him to fall asleep in team meetings, scores a touchdown, then celebrates by laying down in the end zone and using the football as a pillow. Oh, and he dropped what would have been another touchdown that would have sealed the game and Washington ended up winning. But TOFU isn’t upset. After all, he’s got 25 million reasons to be happy.
Straight Up: Arizona
Against the Spread: Arizona

The Match-up: New Orleans (+4.5) @ Pittsburgh
The Skinny: When the overwhelming suspicions that a team has mailed it in are confirmed by a player on the team saying that the team has mailed it in, that’s not a good sign. Who thought the Steelers, the defending Super Bowl champs, would be playing the role of a spoiler on the second Sunday in November?
Straight Up: Pittsburgh
Against the Spread: New Orleans

The Match-up: St. Louis (+3.5) @ Seattle
The Skinny: How much longer can the Seahawks hold it together without Hasselbeck and Alexander? A win over the Rams could in essence lock up the division, then the ‘Hawks can focus on getting healthy for the playoffs.
Straight Up: Seattle
Against the Spread: Seattle

The Match-up: Chicago (Pick) @ New York Giants
The Skinny: What a dilemma. The key to beating the Bears is to get in Rex Grossman’s kitchen, yet the Giants will be without their top two defensive ends (Michael Strahan and Osi Umienyora). The Bears are not without their own injury concerns, as stud linebacker Brian Urlacher may be out. Tough call, but I think Tiki Barber takes over the game and will be the best player on the field.
Straight Up: New York Giants
Against the Spread: New York Giants

Monday, November 13th, 2006

The Match-up: Tampa Bay (+9.5) @ Carolina
The Skinny: The once-hallowed Tampa Bay defense now has problems stopping the run and the pass. Steve Smith always seems to have a little something extra for the Bucs, and Monday night should be no different.
Straight Up: Carolina
Against the Spread: Carolina

The Week 9 Picks

It’s Week 9 in the NFL. Eight weeks in, eight weeks after this one, meaning it’s basically halftime. And halftime is a time to review the game plan you came in with, see what’s working and what’s not, and make adjustments to have a strong second half. Sounds like a plan to me. Let’s review the pre-season picks and see how we’re shaping up at the turn.

As division winners go, looks like Baltimore, Indianapolis, Denver, and Chicago were solid (if not easy) predictions. Projected playoff teams New England, Philadelphia, New York Giants, Carolina, and Atlanta are all in contention for the post-season. As a lot of people did, I completely whiffed on the strength of the Miami Dolphins (a huge disappointment) and the weakness of the New Orleans Saints (a pleasant surprise). I wouldn’t throw dirt on San Diego, Jacksonville, or St. Louis just yet. Feel free to stick a fork in Houston, Washington, and Arizona, because they’re done.

I said Eagles and Colts in the Super Bowl, so I’ll stand by that. For now. I may want to revise that pick after the Colts visit New England on Sunday.

My sleeper team, the Cleveland Browns, have yet to come out of hibernation. After firing their offensive coordinator, they re-committed to the run with Reuben Droughns. Just as I start to come around, Corporal "Evil Kellen-evil" Winslow opens his mouth and proclaims himself the best tight end in the league (more on this clown later). The jury is still out on the Browns.

If I could get a mulligan on the individual award winners based on the first eight weeks of the year, here’s how they would look:
MVP: Peyton Manning, Indianapolis – Obviously.

Coach of the Year: Bill Belichick, New England – Maybe this isn’t the year the Patriots come back to the pack. It warrants mentioning that their receivers are Troy Brown, Reche Caldwell, Doug Gabriel, and rookie Chad Jackson.

Offensive Player of the Year: LaDanian Tomlinson, San Diego – He’s putting up sick, sick rushing and receiving numbers and scoring at will. No doubt in my mind he’s the best all-around running back in the league.

Defensive Player of the Year: Julius Peppers, Carolina – His outstanding play, coupled with the steroid suspension of San Diego’s Shawne Merriman make Peppers the odds on favorite here.

Offensive Rookie of the Year: Laurence Maroney, New England – I still like the way my pick (Joseph Addai) and everyone else’s (Reggie Bush) have played, but Maroney’s impact has been awesome.

Defensive Rookie of the Year: Mark Anderson, Chicago – What, you’ve never heard of him? I hadn’t either, until I noticed he’s already recorded 7 ½ sacks this season for the Bears, on pace to break the NFL’s rookie record of 14 ½ set by Jevon Kearse in 1999.

Lastly, a personal assessment. As the picks go, I’d give myself a C+. There was the high of the near perfect 13-1 straight up and 11-1-2 against the spread Week 5, and the mediocre three-week span that has followed (19-21; 19-20-1). Overall, the record shows 70-44 winners and 59-49-6 by the numbers. Yes, it’s halftime, and I plan to make the adjustments and have a strong second half.

And away we go.

Sunday, November 5th, 2006

The Match-up: Houston (+13.0) @ New York Giants
The Skinny: The Giants have had a relatively tough schedule thus far. They were due for a cupcake sooner or later. Enter the Houston Texans. You know you’ve hit rock bottom when you get benched in favor of Sage Rosenfels.
Straight Up: New York Giants
Against the Spread: New York Giants

The Match-up: New Orleans (–1.0) @ Tampa Bay
The Skinny: If not for a Reggie Bush punt return TD, the Bucs might have beaten the Saints in New Orleans a couple of weeks ago. I don’t see Tampa punting it to Bush if they’re protecting a lead this time.
Straight Up: Tampa Bay
Against the Spread: Tampa Bay

The Match-up: Green Bay (+3.0) @ Buffalo
The Skinny: While it may look like Brett Favre is playing good football, it should be noted that his good games of late have come against teams like Miami and Arizona. A tougher test awaits in Buffalo.
Straight Up: Buffalo
Against the Spread: Buffalo

The Match-up: Dallas (–3.0) @ Washington
The Skinny: See what happens when you start a better quarterback? The head coach is happy, the receivers are happy. I’m telling you, no good can come of this. Please, Tuna. Please get Drew Bled-slow back under center.
Straight Up: Washington
Against the Spread: Washington

The Match-up: Miami (+13.5) @ Chicago
The Skinny: I made a mistake last week of taking a clearly inferior team (San Francisco) plus a butt-load of points thinking that the Bears wouldn’t score enough points. But with that defense forcing turnovers and giving the offense a short field, I won’t make that mistake again.
Straight Up: Chicago
Against the Spread: Chicago

The Match-up: Tennessee (+9.5) @ Jacksonville
The Skinny: This looks like a classic struggle game for the Jaguars. After having their mental fortitude questioned after their 27-7 loss in Houston, the Jags manned up and smacked the Eagles in the mouth. I could see them playing down to the competition on Sunday.
Straight Up: Jacksonville
Against the Spread: Tennessee

The Match-up: Atlanta (–5.5) @ Detroit
The Skinny: Who is that guy wearing Ron Mexico’s jersey and playing quarterback in Atlanta? Seven TD passes and no picks in the last two games for R-Mex, and maybe the light finally did go on with this guy.
Straight Up: Atlanta
Against the Spread: Atlanta

The Match-up: Cincinnati (+3.0) @ Baltimore
The Skinny: Chad Johnson (sorry, I mean "Ocho Cinco") makes his living by calling out guys on the other team. But Ray Lewis? Are you crazy? Didn’t he knife a guy one time? Choose your battles wisely, Ocho.
Straight Up: Baltimore
Against the Spread: Baltimore

The Match-up: Kansas City (+2.0) @ St. Louis
The Skinny: It remains to be seen whether or not Herm Edwards will go with Trent Green at quarterback or stick with Damon Huard. Either way, I’m not sure it matters.
Straight Up: St. Louis
Against the Spread: St. Louis

The Match-up: Minnesota (–5.0) @ San Francisco
The Skinny: After being blasted at home on Monday, the Vikings need to come out strong on Sunday and reclaim the momentum they had built prior to the Patriots beat-down.
Straight Up: Minnesota
Against the Spread: Minnesota

The Match-up: Denver (+3.0) @ Pittsburgh
The Skinny: Pittsburgh should only be favored if the odds makers have advanced knowledge that Ben Roethlisberger will be lifted for Charlie Batch. Bill Cowher seems reluctant to make that move, so I’ll take Denver and the points.
Straight Up: Denver
Against the Spread: Denver

The Match-up: Cleveland (+12.5) @ San Diego
The Skinny: Corporal Winslow likened this game to a heavyweight battle between the best tight end in the league (himself) and the guy right behind him (Antonio Gates). Winslow also smacked Tony Gonzalez on the way out the door. For the record, let’s do a career tale of the tape amongst these three:

Gates – 52 GP, 226 Rec, 2,828 Yds, 29 TD
Gonzalez – 150 GP, 681 Rec, 8,251 Yds, 57 TD
Winslow – 9 GP, 45 Rec, 443 Yds, 3 TD

So Gates has more touchdowns this year that Winslow has in his career, and Gonzalez has more receptions that Winslow has yards. If there is a title fight, it’s between Gates and Gonzalez. Winslow is merely a tomato can sparring partner on the undercard.
Straight Up: San Diego
Against the Spread: Cleveland

The Match-up: Indianapolis (+3.0) @ New England
The Skinny: Look at the marquis names involved in this game – Manning, Brady, Belichick. This could be the game of the year. And wouldn’t it be some sort of poetic justice if this game came down to a Colts field goal attempt with the game on the line? I’m going with my gut (and Adam Vinatieri) in this one.
Straight Up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Indianapolis

Monday, November 6th, 2006

The Match-up: Oakland (+7.0) @ Seattle
The Skinny: I’m sure the Raiders were very disappointed to see the performance of Seattle back up quarterback Seneca Wallace in Kansas City last week. Wallace put up respectable numbers in a tough environment at Arrowhead. He’ll look even better at home.
Straight Up: Seattle
Against the Spread: Seattle

Bye Week: Arizona, Carolina, New York Jets, Philadelphia

The Week 8 Picks

For the football fan and the fantasy junkie (both of which, I am), you can’t beat NFL.com’s live scoreboard. It updates automatically with every play and live statistics. Sometimes, the web tells me what play is about to happen in the game I’m watching. Yes, I love NFL.com.

Well, at least I did until last weekend.

Imagine my jubilation at seeing this on my screen with :33 to go in the Eagles/Buccaneers game:

"TOUCHDOWN! D. McNabb to B. Westbrook for 52 Yards."

Sweet! Not only did the Eagles rally from 17 down to take the lead, but Westbrook is my fantasy go-to guy. All is well in Ant-Land.

And then, after a kickoff return, a few plays, and a couple of Bucs timeouts, the following note flashes up:

"M. Bryant 62-Yard Field Goal is GOOD!"

Wait, what did that say? No way. There’s no way. NO EFFIN’ WAY! YOU"VE GOT TO BE EFFIN’ KIDDING ME!!! GET THE EFF OUTTA HERE!!!

Sure enough, the final score read Tampa Bay 23, Philadelphia 21.

I hate NFL.com.

I also hate Ronde Barber, and I’d personally like to thank NBC for showing a replay of that little bastard’s TD return in the 2002 NFC Championship game, which almost landed me on a therapist’s couch.

I hate NBC (except, of course, for the Notre Dame broadcasts).

I also turned down a Ron Mexico-Hines Ward for Tom Brady-Reggie Williams trade, thinking Pittsburgh at Atlanta was not a strong match-up for Mex or Ward. Plus, Jacksonville was in Houston, so I was counting on big things from Williams. What happens? Mexico throws it all over the lot, chucks 4 touchdowns, and Ward goes for 180 yards and three TD’s in a 41-38 shootout. Meanwhile, Williams had zero catches, one end around for 8 yards and a grand total of 0.8 fantasy points.

I hate fantasy football, so much so that I pulled a Bob Clarke and temporarily resigned due to lost interest, handing control of "Bonzi’s Pecans" to an interim GM, who hopefully will have better luck than I have had.

Since I’m on a roll, I hate the Dallas Cowboys. I mean, I love that they are in disarray, but I wish they’d stick with that statue of Drew Bled-slow at quarterback, since TOFU favors Tony Romo. I really hate TOFU.

And I really like the Carolina Panthers this week.

Week 7 featured a statistical anomaly, as my record against the spread (7-5-1) was actually better than my straight up score (5-8). Further proof that nothing really went right last week. 100 games into the 2006-07 season, the records are about where you’d expect them to be (63-37 straight up, 53-41-6 by the books). 156 picks to go, starting now.

Sunday, October 29th, 2006

The Match-up: Jacksonville (+7.0) @ Philadelphia
The Skinny: There are no moral victories in the NFL. Nobody is going to hand the 4-3 Eagles a playoff spot because their three losses are by a combined 11 points and all three came on the last play of the game. They’re going to have to earn their way in, starting right now.
Straight Up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia

The Match-up: Atlanta (+3.5) @ Cincinnati
The Skinny: Chad Johnson wants to be known as "Ocho Cinco," and he guaranteed two TD’s against DeAngelo Hall this week. You know what? I believe him. No way Mexico throws it around like he did last week.
Straight Up: Cincinnati
Against the Spread: Cincinnati

The Match-up: Arizona (+4.5) @ Green Bay
The Skinny: I knew I would second-guess myself after sticking with Arizona in Oakland last week. That choke-job against the Bears is still with them.
Straight Up: Green Bay
Against the Spread: Green Bay

The Match-up: Houston (+3.0) @ Tennessee
The Skinny: Houston-native Vince Young shows his home-town team what they could have had. Well, that or the Texans actually show up like they did against the Jags last week.
Straight Up: Tennessee
Against the Spread: Tennessee

The Match-up: Seattle (+6.0) @ Kansas City
The Skinny: It takes a lot for me to actually bet on Damon Huard. The combination of Seneca Wallace and Maurice Morris leading Seattle’s offense does the trick.
Straight Up: Kansas City
Against the Spread: Kansas City

The Match-up: Baltimore (+2.0) @ New Orleans
The Skinny: On the recommendation of my new interim GM, I traded for Joe Horn this week. By default, I have to pick the Saints (which I was going to do anyway).
Straight Up: New Orleans
Against the Spread: New Orleans

The Match-up: Tampa Bay (+9.0) @ New York Giants
The Skinny: After their 1-2 start, the Giants have rallied to three straight wins, making me look smart, since I called it. I’m riding this wave until the Giants play the Eagles again. And Tiki, please take Ronde with you when you ride off into the sunset in January.
Straight Up: New York Giants
Against the Spread: New York Giants

The Match-up: San Francisco (+16.0) @ Chicago
The Skinny: I’m not ready to crown the Bears yet, but at 6-0, they are what we thought they were – a pretty good football team. They will feel the loss of Mike Brown, however.
Straight Up: Chicago
Against the Spread: San Francisco

The Match-up: St. Louis (+10.0) @ San Diego
The Skinny: Why are people so up in arms about the fact that Shawne Merriman will play until his suspension appeal is heard? Do the words "innocent until proven guilty" mean anything? The Merriman situation could pose a slight distraction this week, so I’d look for Bulger and the Rams to hang around.
Straight Up: San Diego
Against the Spread: St. Louis

The Match-up: New York Jets (+2.0) @ Cleveland
The Skinny: OK, I know I picked the Browns as my sleeper this year, but the Jets have played pretty well of late. I’m not sure how Cleveland is favored, but they are. Not by me, though.
Straight Up: New York Jets
Against the Spread: New York Jets

The Match-up: Indianapolis (+3.0) @ Denver
The Skinny: Remember the last time the Colts were an underdog? Me neither. Perhaps the better question is, which quarterback is more reliable in a big game? Neither. That said, I like Denver's defense and the home field advantage of Mile High.
Straight Up: Denver
Against the Spread: Denver

The Match-up: Pittsburgh (-9.0) @ Oakland
The Skinny: Why is Bill Cowher in such a rush to get Ben Roethlisberger back on the field this week against the Raiders? Big Ben picked up his second Lindros since June, and he has struggled in returning from previous injuries. Charlie Batch is 3-0 as a starter in Pittsburgh, and should get the call.
Straight Up: Pittsburgh
Against the Spread: Oakland

The Match-up: Dallas (+5.5) @ Carolina
The Skinny: Tony Romo, meet Julius Peppers. TOFU, meet Carolina’s Steve Smith, the best receiver in the NFL. What kind of odds do you think I can get on Bill Parcells being the first coach to quit or be fired at the end of this season?
Straight Up: Carolina
Against the Spread: Carolina

Monday, October 30th, 2006

The Match-up: New England (-2.0) @ Minnesota
The Skinny: Impressive as the Vikings looked in Seattle last week, it’s still Belichick and Brady on Monday night, and the Patriots continue to fly below the radar.
Straight Up: New England
Against the Spread: New England

Bye Week: Buffalo, Detroit, Miami, Washington

The Week 7 Picks

My motto to describe last week: "Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell."

In other words, don’t ask me why the Eagles couldn’t get off the field on third down in the fourth quarter. Don’t ask me what got into TOFU and his three touchdowns. Don’t ask me why I can’t catch a break with my Fantasy Football team.

And for the love of God, don’t ask me what happened to the Cardinals on Monday night. I’ve watched a lot of football in my life, and I can’t recall a game where the winning team’s quarterback turned the football over six times and had a QB rating of 10.7. No way the Bears should have won that game. The best by-product of that game was Dennis Green’s press conference, which may have been the best outburst since Jim Mora’s "Playoffs?" rant.

But you can ask me why Rams coach Scott Linehan is crying about the NFL’s ten-second run-off rule on penalties. In case you missed it, the Seahawks got flagged for what Linehan thought was a false start with four seconds to go in the game with the Rams up 28-27. Turns out the Seahawks were called for an illegal formation, which does not include the run-off. Seattle’s Kris Brown nails a 54-yard field goal and the ‘Hawks win 30-28. Linehan said that the NFL needs to change the rule. Why? BECAUSE HE LOST! If the shoe was on the other foot, you think Linehan would be complaining about that rule?

If I sound a little bitter about last week, you’re right. I won’t tell you it’s because the Birds lost, the Cowgirls won, and I went 7-6 and 6-7. Just don’t ask me about it.

Sunday, October 22nd, 2006

The Match-up: San Diego (-5.0) @ Kansas City
The Skinny: So much for that improved Kansas City defense. When last we saw them, the Chiefs were busy giving up 45 points to the struggling Steelers. You know who’s not struggling? The Chargers, who just got through routing the Niners behind LaDanian Tomlinson. Did I mention Kansas City’s defense is allowing 129 yards per game on the ground?
Straight Up: San Diego
Against the Spread: San Diego

The Match-up: Green Bay (+5.0) @ Miami
The Skinny: Brett Favre vs. Joey Harrington? Advantage Favre. Miami’s defense vs. Green Bay’s defense? Advantage Miami. Two wins combined for these teams? Advantage nobody.
Straight Up: Miami
Against the Spread: Green Bay

The Match-up: Detroit (+3.5) @ New York Jets
The Skinny: The Jets held off a furious rally from the Dolphins last week (no, seriously) and improved to 3-3. Probably no such rally coming from the Lions.
Straight Up: New York Jets
Against the Spread: New York Jets

The Match-up: Pittsburgh (-2.5) @ Atlanta
The Skinny: The Steelers got back on track a week ago, and the Falcons took one on the chin at the hands of the New York Giants. The Steelers run defense should be able to contain Ron Mexico, meaning he’ll have to throw the ball for the Falcons to have a chance.
Straight Up: Pittsburgh
Against the Spread: Pittsburgh

The Match-up: Philadelphia (-5.0) @ Tampa Bay
The Skinny: The Eagles need a big rebound, especially on defense, after failing to show up in last week’s fourth quarter. The 1-4 Bucs and Bruce Gradkowski should oblige.
Straight Up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia

The Match-up: New England (-5.5) @ Buffalo
The Skinny: Funny how nobody is talking about the Patriots when discussing the league’s elite. They’re certainly a quiet 4-1. Make that 5-1.
Straight Up: New England
Against the Spread: New England

The Match-up: Jacksonville (-9.5) @ Houston
The Skinny: While I do like the Jaguars to win, I’m not so sure the Texans won’t give them a game. From a greed perspective, I’m hoping for big things from Maurice Jones-Drew, Reggie Williams, and Josh Scobey.
Straight Up: Jacksonville
Against the Spread: Houston

The Match-up: Carolina (+3.0) @ Cincinnati
The Skinny: There’s a reason the odds makers are smarter than me. Carolina has won four straight since Steve Smith returned to the line up, and the Bengals don’t have a corner that can stay on the field with him. I know the game is in Cincinnati, but I don’t think Paul Brown Stadium is that big an advantage.
Straight Up: Carolina
Against the Spread: Carolina

The Match-up: Denver (-4.5) @ Cleveland
The Skinny: The only team in the league with fewer points scored than the Broncos? Oakland. And while the Broncos don’t give up a whole lot, they also don’t seem to blow teams out. Even teams like Cleveland.
Straight Up: Denver
Against the Spread: Cleveland

The Match-up: Arizona (-3.0) @ Oakland
The Skinny: I almost, almost, almost took the Raiders to win their first game of the year. That’s how devastating I think the Cardinals choke job could be. I just couldn’t bring myself to pick the Raiders. But don’t be surprised…
Straight Up: Arizona
Against the Spread: Arizona

The Match-up: Minnesota (+6.5) @ Seattle
The Skinny: Last week’s win in St. Louis is proof that the Seahawks can win without Shaun Alexander. They’ll have to do it again this week, as Alexander is still out.
Straight Up: Seattle
Against the Spread: Seattle

The Match-up: Washington (+9.0) @ Indianapolis
The Skinny: Let’s see. The Colts can’t stop the run, and that’s what Clinton Portis and Washington do best. Looks like Peyton Manning will need some more fourth quarter heroics to keep the Colts undefeated.
Straight Up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Washington

Monday, October 23rd, 2006

The Match-up: New York Giants (+3.5) @ Dallas
The Skinny: From the self-promotion department, I told you a week ago the Giants were better than their record. Another tough test for the G-Men in the Toilet.
Straight Up: New York Giants
Against the Spread: New York Giants

Bye Week: Baltimore, Chicago, Kansas City, New Orleans, San Francisco, St. Louis

The Week 6 Picks

Those rumblings you hear coming from Irving, Texas? That’s TOFU about to reach his boiling point. Still steaming after last week’s embarrassing return to Philadelphia (hee hee), TOFU has done everything short of undermining Bill Parcells’ authority and calling Drew Bledsoe gay. This week’s tirade included calling for the ball more (even though 13 of Bledsoe’s pass attempts were directed at TOFU, only three went for receptions) and wondering why he was signed if he was going to be a decoy (then why don’t you go away, you piece of crap?). Can’t see why nobody likes this guy. In fact, TOFU is so hated that I had people coming up to me in the office and at a local shopping establishment as I proudly donned my Donovan McNabb jersey telling me how much they loved seeing him stomping around on the sideline like a third grader in time out. To be honest, it warms my heart.

Now, I don’t want this column to be all about TOFU, but I did want to make one more point - so far this season, the following wide receivers have more touchdowns than TOFU (and to further illustrate my point, I am purposely omitting household names like Torry Holt and Randy Moss, who would also qualify):

Reggie Williams, JAX (4)
Greg Jennings, GB (3)
Marques Colston, NO (3)
Jerricho Cotchery, NYJ (3)
Daniel Wilcox, BAL (2)
Rashied Davis, CHI (2)
John Gilmore, CHI (2)
Mike Furrey, DET (2)
Owen Daniels, HOU (2)
Bryan Fletcher, IND (2)
Chris Baker, NYJ (2)
Malcom Floyd, SD (2)
Arnaz Battle, SF (2)

And, for the record, there are four Eagles with more TD grabs than "The O.D.:"

Reggie Brown (3)
Greg Lewis (2)
Donte’ Stallworth (2)
Brian Westbrook (2)

Yes, last week was almost perfect, and not just the Eagles-Cowboys result. This guy almost recorded an unblemished week, posting marks of 13-1 straight up (losing only the Kansas City-Arizona game) and 10-1-2 against the spread. After such a great week, I’m hoping I’m not set up for a let down, and yes, I’m drawing a parallel to the Eagles. Read on, boys and girls.

Sunday, October 15th 2006

The Match-up: Cincinnati (-5.5) @ Tampa Bay
The Skinny: All jokes aside, Tampa’s Bruce Gradkowski actually looked alright last week, and the Bucs almost pulled off the upset in New Orleans. Cincinnati’s run defense, or the lack thereof, should allow Cadillac Williams and Tampa to hang around. But the Bengals have the weapons to exploit the Tampa D.
Straight Up: Cincinnati
Against the Spread: Tampa Bay

The Match-up: New York Giants (+3.0) @ Atlanta
The Skinny: The philosophy on how to beat Atlanta holds true - keep Ron Mexico in the pocket and make him beat you with his arm. The Giants have the linemen to do that. And, the G-Men are 2-2 with losses to undefeated Indianapolis and 3-1 Seattle and a win over 4-1 Philly. In other words, they’re better than you think.
Straight Up: New York Giants
Against the Spread: New York Giants

The Match-up: Tennessee (+10.5) @ Washington
The Skinny: When the Titans schedule came out, no doubt they circled last week’s game with division-rival Indianapolis. That was their Super Bowl. On the heels of that heartbreaking loss, the Redskins will blow them out.
Straight Up: Washington
Against the Spread: Washington

The Match-up: Houston (+13.0) @ Dallas
The Skinny: Would you believe that David Carr is the NFL’s top rated passer? Me neither.
Straight Up: Houston
Against the Spread: Houston

The Match-up: Carolina (+3.0) @ Baltimore
The Skinny: This game should give some indication as to whether or not the Panthers have turned the corner, and whether or not the Ravens have fallen off. My guess? Yes, and no.
Straight Up: Baltimore
Against the Spread: Baltimore

The Match-up: Buffalo (-1.0) @ Detroit
The Skinny: Based on Buffalo’s performance a week ago in Chicago, I almost took the Lions. But then I realized...they’re the Lions.
Straight Up: Buffalo
Against the Spread: Buffalo

The Match-up: Seattle (-3.0) @ St. Louis
The Skinny: People might be writing off the Seahawks with Shaun Alexander on the shelf. But they’ve still got Matt Hasselbeck, a bevy of talented receivers, and an above average defense. Loosely translated, Seattle should get by St. Louis.
Straight Up: Seattle
Against the Spread: Seattle

The Match-up: Philadelphia (-3.0) @ New Orleans
The Skinny: Tall order for the Eagles in the Big Easy this week. In Andy Reid’s tenure, the Eagles are 11-4 against the Cowboys and 8-6 the following week. And the atmosphere for Saints home games is outstanding. Still, the Eagles will make a big statement on Sunday.
Straight Up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia

The Match-up: Miami (+2.5) @ New York Jets
The Skinny: They call this the "Squish the Fish" game in New York, and I think that’s exactly what’s going to happen.
Straight Up: New York Jets
Against the Spread: New York Jets

The Match-up: Kansas City (+7.0) @ Pittsburgh
The Skinny: Bizarre sequence for Kansas City - lose your starting quarterback, rally around Damon Huard (can’t believe I just wrote that), get fat on the NFC West (wins over San Francisco 41-0 and Arizona 23-20), seven point underdog to 1-3 Pittsburgh at Heinz Field. Sounds about right.
Straight Up: Pittsburgh
Against the Spread: Pittsburgh

The Match-up: San Diego (-10.0) @ San Francisco
The Skinny: Turns out this Philip Rivers kid isn’t too bad. Good things seem to happen when Marty Schottenheimer lets him throw the ball.
Straight Up: San Diego
Against the Spread: San Diego

The Match-up: Oakland (+15.0) @ Denver
The Skinny: I’ve got a funny feeling about this game. Not a feeling like the Raiders will steal a win or anything, but I could see them keeping it close, too close for Denver’s liking.
Straight Up: Denver
Against the Spread: Oakland

Monday, October 16th 2006

The Match-up: Chicago (-10.5) @ Arizona
The Skinny: Another week, another cupcake for the Bears. You want an impressive stat? In four of their five games, the Bears have outscored their opposition by 117 points (137-20), an average margin of victory of better than 29 points per game. Wow.
Straight Up: Chicago
Against the Spread: Chicago

Bye Week: Cleveland, Green Bay, Indianapolis, Jacksonville, Minnesota, New England

Eagles 38, TOFU 0

Could it really have gone any other way? Terrell Owens marches back into The Linc for the first time as a Cowboy, and marches out with his tail tucked between his legs. Here are some TOFU-related thoughts I had will soaking in the most satisfying regular-season win in recent memory.
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First and foremost, I would be remiss if I didn't say...Ha Ha Ha!
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Before the game, TOFU was huddled with his teammates and said something to the effect of, "it's not me against them, it's us against them." Nice sentiment, which only makes his post-game comment even more appropriate - at least for TOFU:

"You watched the game. Who's pulling the trigger? I'm just out there doing my job. I'm not trying to point fingers at anybody, but you guys know just as well as I know. We win as a team, we lose as a team."

Talk out of both sides of your mouth much? It's like he started to go TOFU, but Psrcells zapped him through a shock collar and he went to the "all about the team" comment. Hysterical. This guy is only about one team, and that's team TOFU.
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For the record, this game wasn't about TOFU vs. Donovan McNabb, or TOFU vs. the Eagles, or even the Cowboys vs. the Eagles. It was basically TOFU vs. the city of Philadelphia, and you had to love Philly's odds in that mismatch.
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During training camp, when TOFU wasn't riding the bike due to his "tweaked hamstring," he said he lifted weights in reps of 10 and 8, or 10/8, the date the Cowboys played in Philly? Well, now on October 10th, I have TOFU's new workour regimen, and it calls for reps of 7-4-3-2-0-0. 7 for the seven sacks of TOFU's new quarterback, Drew Bledsoe, 4 for the number of Cowboys turnovers in said game, 3 for the number of balls hauled in by TOFU, 2 for the number of balls dropped by TOFU, 0 for the number of touchdowns scored by TOFU, and 0 for the impact he had on this game.
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Here's what the label on TOFU's latest refill of pain pills reads:

Clinic: Dallas OB/GYN
Patient: Owens, T.
Doctor: Jones, J.
Prescription: Yousuckitol, 500 mg
Dosage: Take as many pills as you can cram in your pie hole for pain caused by 14 point beat-down in Philadelphia; Increase dosage as necessary upon realization that Drew Blewsoe is your quarterback.
Side Effects: May include disappearing during big games against former team and dropped passes (in other words, you'll appear exactly as you did on Sunday).
Warnings: Feel free to mix with as many supplements as possible. No, seriously, take a few more.
In case of "Accidental Overdose:" Allow skeezer publicist to refrain from calling 911, let nature take its course.
Refill Date: December 26, 2006
Number of Refills: As many as required
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I'm sure TOFU isn't really upset about losing the game. After all, he's got 25 million reasons to be happy, right Kim? Whatever keeps you from going back to your old job of swinging on the brass pole.
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Finally, some TOFU Haiku for you...

How 'bout that, TOFU.
McNabb to Brown and Baskett.
Ha Ha Ha, You suck.

The Week 5 Picks

Let’s see…there’s playoff baseball on TV (not featuring the Phillies, unfortunately), and as I write I’m watching the Flyers-Penguins opening night game on the NHL Center Ice package on my digital cable (3-0 Pens right now, and the Flyers are making Mark Andre Fleury look like the second coming of Patrick Roy). That means it must be October.

So why does it feel like Christmas?

Oh yeah, maybe it’s because TOFU comes back to Philly for the first time as a stinkin’ Cowboy, and you’d better believe Eagles fans will be ready. In fact, it started Monday night against Green Bay, as witnessed by a couple of signs seen in the stands:

"T.O., Get Well Soon, So We Can Hurt You."

"Get a Refill. You’re Going to Need Those Pills Soon."

"Next, Time, Make Sure to Get Your Whole Head in Front of the Shotgun." (OK, I made that one up).

There were even unconfirmed rumors of an "O.D." chant.

I can only imagine what’s coming this week, especially with a 4:15 start, meaning an extra three hours of tailgate time, which translates to loosely 180,000 additional beers to be imbibed.

Memo to TOFU – put your helmet on before you get off the bus, and leave it on until you’re on a plane back to Dallas. You’ve been warned.

One more TOFU point - Speaking to the press this week, Donovan McNabb sad he text messaged TOFU after his failed suicide (oops, my bad, I mean accidental overdose) to wish him well and offered an ear if he needed to talk. TOFU defiantly claims he didn’t receive the message. Who do you believe, a guy who has been nothing but class since he entered the league, or the guy who has been a cancer everywhere he’s been? Me too.

By the way, if you get a chance, check out Michael Smith’s article on espn.com about McNabb. It’s an outstanding piece written by a very good journalist that not a lot of people give credit to.

Last Week’s records: 8-6 straight up (38-22 overall), 7-6-1 against the spread (29-28-3).

Sunday, October 8th, 2006

The Match-up: Miami (+9.5) @ New England
The Skinny: So, are the Patriots officially back, or were the Bengals simply overrated. Speaking of overrated, the Daunte Culpepper and the Dolphins will be in Foxboro this week.
Straight Up: New England
Against the Spread: New England

The Match-up: Tampa Bay (+6.5) @ New Orleans
The Skinny: It’s the start of the Bruce Gradkowski era in Tampa, which means the Saints will see a healthy does of Cadillac Williams. I think the Bucs will be able to keep it close, but nobody beats the Saints in New Orleans.
Straight Up: New Orleans
Against the Spread: Tampa Bay

The Match-up: Washington (+4.5) @ New York Giants
The Skinny: The Giants have looked rather ordinary through their first three games, albeit against quality opponents Indianapolis, Philly, and Seattle. In reality, the G-Men are lucky they're not 0-3 right now. Even at 1-2, my gut tells me the Giants at home are the play over the resurgent Redskins.
Straight Up: New York Giants
Against the Spread: New York Giants

The Match-up: Buffalo (+10.0) @ Chicago
The Skinny: The line for this game opened at 11 points and dropped to ten by Wednesday, meaning a lot of people were ramping up on the Bills and the points. Sounds like a pretty good plan to me.
Straight Up: Chicago
Against the Spread: Buffalo

The Match-up: St. Louis (-3.0) @ Green Bay
The Skinny: Who had a worse week then Ahmed Carroll? Reggie Brown and Greg Lewis abused the Packers’ former first round pick on Monday, then he got cut by Green Bay on Tuesday. Ouch.
Straight Up: St. Louis
Against the Spread: St. Louis

The Match-up: Cleveland (+8.0) @ Carolina
The Skinny: The Panthers are back in the thick of the NFC, evening their record at 2-2 with last week’s squeaker over the Saints. Another tight game for Carolina at home. This just in – Steve Smith is pretty good.
Straight Up: Carolina
Against the Spread: Cleveland

The Match-up: Tennessee (+18.0) @ Indianapolis
The Skinny: I thought this was a misprint at first. Eighteen points? That’s crazy. Basically it means Indy is a very good team, and Tennessee basically sucks. Still, I can’t justify leaving that many points on the board.
Straight Up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Tennessee

The Match-up: Detroit (+6.5) @ Minnesota
The Skinny: Congratulations to the Lions for finally scoring in double-digits. Too bad their defense got pasted for 41 points by the Rams.
Straight Up: Minnesota
Against the Spread: Minnesota

The Match-up: Kansas City (-3.5) @ Arizona
The Skinny: I can’t believe Kansas City is as good as they looked last week. I also can’t believe it took Dennis Green this long to hand the car keys to Matt Leinart, who’s got "superstar" written all over him.
Straight Up: Arizona
Against the Spread: Arizona

The Match-up: Oakland (+3.5) @ San Francisco
The Skinny: While this might be a pretty good baseball game, it’s shaping up to be an awful, awful football game.
Straight Up: San Francisco
Against the Spread: San Francisco

The Match-up: New York Jets (+7.0) @ Jacksonville
The Skinny: Remember a couple of weeks ago when some people were labeling Jacksonville as the favorite to emerge from the AFC? Since then, they’re 0-2 and they just allowed Mark Brunell to hang 36 points on them. I still don’t think they’re as bad as they looked in Washington.
Straight Up: Jacksonville
Against the Spread: Jacksonville

The Match-up: Dallas (+2.0) @ Philadelphia
The Skinny: Bottom line – if the Eagles beat Dallas, I don’t care how many yards TOFU gains. But if they hold his sorry ass to 2 catches for 26 yards but the Eagles lose? Nobody’s happy. With any luck, TOFU will go across the middle and Dawk will literally take his head off. Then the Birds will finish off the rest of those sorry bastards.
Straight Up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia

The Match-up: Pittsburgh (+3.5) @ San Diego
The Skinny: The term "Marty-ball" has been thrown around a lot this week, and if you’re not familiar with the concept, it’s basically when a coach calls plays not with the intent to win, but rather trying to avoid the loss. Invariably, the scheme backfires. No more "Marty-ball" from the Chargers, who should have beaten Baltimore.
Straight Up: San Diego
Against the Spread: San Diego

Monday, October 9th, 2006

The Match-up: Baltimore (Off) @ Denver
The Skinny: To be honest, I’m not sure why this game is off the board. I know I picked Baltimore to be pretty good this year, and their 4-0 record has me looking pretty smart. But they’ve needed last-second heroics in consecutive weeks, and you can’t bank on Steve McNair to keep making plays the way he has.
Straight Up: Denver
Against the Spread: Denver

Bye Week: Atlanta, Cincinnati, Houston, Seattle

The Week 4 Picks

Random thoughts as a pre-cursor to the Week 4 Picks…

I don’t want to pay a whole lot of attention to the TOFU alleged drug overdose-suicide attempt, but I have made a few observations:

1. We all knew TOFU had issues, but maybe they’re deeper than anyone imagined.

2. TOFU’s publicist, Kim Etheredge, who called 911 and reportedly had to pry two more pills out of TOFU’s mouth, said TOFU has "25 million reasons" to stay alive. This sums up TOFU in a nutshell – never mind living for his family, his friends, his teammates and the chance to win a Super Bowl. Nope, it’s all about the money with this guy, proving again that TOFU is all about TOFU. Besides, what does TOFU’s paycheck have anything to do with this? Like rich people can’t have mental issues.
Etheredge, by the way, is pretty shady. Not Drew Weasel-haus shady, but close. My instinct was that she was lying through her teeth at the press conference. Next question.

3. Where does the league stand on this issue? The guy either has severe psychological issues or has a drug problem, yet the league has done nothing to intervene? Strange.

4. Is TOFU to fragile to play next weekend in Philly? Can you hear the pill bottles rattling in the hands of 60,000 Philly fans? It’s going to be fun.

Excellent effort in New Orleans on Monday, from the U2-Green Day performance, to the atmosphere in the crowd, to the game itself. How could I not pick the Saints to win that game?

Ed Hochuli is diesel. Are NFL Officials subject to the same drug testing as the players? Somebody make that guy pee in a cup.

I don’t really know if there is such a thing as the "Madden Curse," but Shaun Alexander broke his foot, the latest in a run of bad luck for the video game cover boys. Any chance we can petition Madden to put the 2006-07 Dallas Cowboys team photo on his next game?

Of all the highly touted rookie quarterbacks (Matt Leinart, Vince Young, Jay Cutler), who had Bruce Gradkowski as the first to get a start in ’06? Not sure what made me mention him by name last week.

The Week 3 Records: 9-5 straight up (30-16 for the season), 6-6-2 against the spread (deuces wild on the year, 22-22-2).

One more thing – I’m writing with a heavy heart, as today would have been my father’s 67th birthday. I miss you, Pop. Thanks for keeping an eye on me.

Sunday, October 1, 2006

The Match-up: Arizona (+7.0) @ Atlanta
The Skinny: Denny Green said Matt Leinart would start this week, then reversed fields and decided to stick with the Turnover Factory, Kurt Warner. With the Factory under center, I like the Falcons.
Straight Up: Atlanta
Against the Spread: Atlanta

The Match-up: New Orleans (+7.5) @ Carolina
The Skinny: It will be damn near impossible for the Saints to get up for this game the way they did on Monday. But I’ve learned my lesson – I’m not going against them until they give me a reason to.
Straight Up: Carolina
Against the Spread: New Orleans

The Match-up: Minnesota (+1.0) @ Buffalo
The Skinny: If this game were being played in December and the dome-team Vikings were heading to Buffalo, I’d expect them to be underdogs. But I don’t like this line one bit. Something’s not right.
Straight Up: Buffalo
Against the Spread: Buffalo

The Match-up: San Diego (-2.5) @ Baltimore
The Skinny: Probably not much offense in this one, with the resurgent Ravens defense facing a quarterback making only his third NFL start, and the nasty, aggressive Chargers D lining up against a guy that is clearly on the downside of his NFL career.
Straight Up: San Diego
Against the Spread: San Diego

The Match-up: Miami (-3.5) @ Houston
The Skinny: So Gary Kubiak is disappointed with the play first overall pick Mario Williams? Is this really a surprise to anyone? Outside of the Texans brain trust, did anyone think Williams would be the impact player than, say, Reggie Bush has been?
Straight Up: Miami
Against the Spread: Miami

The Match-up: Dallas (-9.5) @ Tennessee
The Skinny: You can tell that Bill Parcells is starting to get annoyed with TOFU and all his baggage. So much so that he had to take time this week and talk about TOFU instead of preparing for the Titans. Prediction – Vince Young plays because he’s more elusive and can pose problems for the Dallas defense, and the Titans pull off the colossal upset.
Straight Up: Tennessee
Against the Spread: Tennessee

The Match-up: San Francisco (+7.0) @ Kansas City
The Skinny: Damon Huard is still starting for the Chiefs, right? Good enough for me.
Straight Up: San Francisco
Against the Spread: San Francisco

The Match-up: Indianapolis (-9.0) @ New York Jets
The Skinny: For all the hype the Bengals have gotten for getting out of the gates at 3-0, the equally-undefeated Colts are kind of hovering under the radar now. After we were inundated with home movies of Peyton Manning before and during Week 1, we’ve almost forgotten about him. Unless of course you count the commercials for Sprint, DirecTV, Gatorade...
Straight Up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: New York Jets

The Match-up: Detroit (+5.5) @ St. Louis
The Skinny: Now that I think about it, Lions WR Roy Williams was right. It’s sick to think how close the Lions are to scoring 40 points. They’ve scored 37…in three games. Like I said, sick.
Straight Up: St. Louis
Against the Spread: St. Louis

The Match-up: Jacksonville (-3.0) @ Washington
The Skinny: Even in defeat last week, I think the Jaguars established themselves as a legitimate power in the AFC. Jacksonville may have uncovered a weapon in Maurice Jones-Drew, who amassed better than 100 yards and a touchdown and would seem to be a perfect compliment to Fred Taylor.
Straight Up: Jacksonville
Against the Spread: Jacksonville

The Match-up: New England (+6.0) @ Cincinnati
The Skinny: So Patriots fan, how does it feel to know that your owner let go of proven commodities like Deion Branch, Adam Vinatieri, and Willie McGinest, but remains $13 million under the cap? At least you’ve got three rings to fall back on.
Straight Up: Cincinnati
Against the Spread: Cincinnati

The Match-up: Cleveland (-3.0) @ Oakland
The Skinny: The Raiders have managed six points this season, or three per game. Since they’re a three-point dog, that means the Browns only have to score seven to cover. They should be able to do that.
Straight Up: Cleveland
Against the Spread: Cleveland

The Match-up: Seattle (+3.0) @ Chicago
The Skinny: The classic match-up in this one will be between Seattle’s dynamic offense (potentially with Shaun Alexander) against the stout Chicago D. But the game within the game in Chicago this week will be the ability of the Bears offense to move the ball against the underrated Seahawks defense.
Straight Up: Chicago
Against the Spread: Chicago

Monday, October 2nd, 2006

The Match-up: Green Bay (+11.0) @ Philadelphia
The Skinny: There is a chance that the Phillies will host a one-game playoff at Citizen’s Bank Park prior to the Eagles game at The Linc. Hopefully much good sports Karma for the city of Philly.
Straight Up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia

The Week 3 Picks

What, no Week 2 wrap up, you say? Fine, here it is in a nutshell - it sucked.

After the high of Week 1 featuring 12 winners (10 against the spread), a fantasy football win, and hitting the trifecta - Notre Dame wins, Eagles win, Cowboys lose - Week 2 was filled with nothing but lows.

The Week 2 records? 9-7 straight up, 6-10 against the spread.

"Bonzi’s Pecans" fell to Peyton Manning and the "Tarheels"

Notre Dame? Embarrassed by Michigan. The Eagles? Choked away a sure win against the Giants. Dallas? Man-handled the Redskins.

Call it the crap-fecta.

Anyway, what’s done is done. And Week 3 is a chance to bounce back, for the Irish, the Birds, and The Kid.

Sunday, September 24, 2006

The Match-up: Chicago (-3.0) @ Minnesota
The Skinny: Scary thought # 1 - Rex Grossman gives the Bears a legitimate offense, the kind that can move the ball and score points. Couple that with a defense that doesn’t surrender a whole lot, and you’re looking at the NFC’s best team (after two weeks).
Straight Up: Chicago
Against the Spread: Chicago

The Match-up: Cincinnati (+1.5) @ Pittsburgh
The Skinny: Carson Palmer says he hates the Steelers even more than he hates UCLA. I thought he wasn’t bitter about that hit in last year’s playoffs. Anyway, Palmer may hate the Steelers even more after Sunday. And thanks, NFL, for abolishing the excessive celebrations. Now instead of laughing at Chad Johnson’s creative end zone antics, I’m watching him do the chicken dance like some schmuck at a wedding in a fire house.
Straight Up: Pittsburgh
Against the Spread: Pittsburgh

The Match-up: New York Jets (+5.5) @ Buffalo
The Skinny: After falling behind 24-0 to New England, Chad Pennington, Laveranues Coles and the Jets showed much heart, rallying to cut the score to 24-17. They did lose the game, but if the Jets play the way they did in that second half against the Pats, they might just be alright.
Straight Up: New York Jets
Against the Spread: New York Jets

The Match-up: Carolina (-3.0) @ Tampa Bay
The Skinny: Scary thought # 2 - one of these two teams that was predicted to contend for a Super Bowl will be 0-3 after Sunday. And 0-3 is a lot worse than 0-2. By the way, Tampa’s back up quarterback is Bruce Gradkowski, if you need him.
Straight Up: Carolina
Against the Spread: Carolina

The Match-up: Green Bay (+7.0) @ Detroit
The Skinny: The struggling Lions inquired about the status of disgruntled Oakland wide receiver Jerry Porter. What, was Koren "DUI" Robinson off the market? Oh yeah, he signed with the Packers. Two pretty bad football teams on display in this one.
Straight Up: Detroit
Against the Spread: Green Bay

The Match-up: Washington (-4.0) @ Houston
The Skinny: You could argue that no offense suffers more from the absence of one player than Washington and Clinton Portis. The good news for the ‘Skins is that Portis is expected to play. The better news? So are the Texans.
Straight Up: Washington
Against the Spread: Washington

The Match-up: Jacksonville (+7.0) @ Indianapolis
The Skinny: Are the Jags for real? They’ve beaten Dallas and Pittsburgh, two quality opponents, behind a defense that looks as good as ever. But this week in Indianapolis will be the real litmus test. Me? I’m drinking the teal and black Kool-Aid (in small doses).
Straight Up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Jacksonville

The Match-up: Tennessee (+11.0) @ Miami
The Skinny: The Dolphins have to be the most disappointing 0-2 team thus far. Losing to Pittsburgh at Heinz Field is acceptable. Losing at home to Buffalo is not. A setback to 0-2 Tennessee could land Daunte Culpepper in Nick Saban’s dog house.
Straight Up: Miami
Against the Spread: Tennessee

The Match-up: Baltimore (-6.5) @ Cleveland
The Skinny: Please don’t confuse the message with the messenger. If a prominent member of the Browns (oxymoron) came out and said "we’ve got nothing to lose, so let’s open it up on offense," it would carry some weight. When it’s Private Kellen Winslow II, it falls on deaf ears.
Straight Up: Baltimore
Against the Spread: Baltimore

The Match-up: St. Louis (+4.5) @ Arizona
The Skinny: I’ve got a funny feeling that this game could turn into a shootout. Think about the weapons on offense - Bulger, Jackson, Holt, Bruce, Warner, James, Fitzgerald, Boldin. Now think about the big names on defense. There’s...um, you’ve got...um...well, anyway. You get the idea.
Straight Up: Arizona
Against the Spread: Arizona

The Match-up: Philadelphia (-6.0) @ San Francisco
The Skinny: Alright, I’m always quick to defend Andy Reid when people criticize. But I can’t do it after last week’s gag job. You’ve got an all-pro quarterback and one of the most versatile running backs in the league and you go run-run-pass-punt for the last 18 minutes of the game? Teams that have a killer instinct don’t give up 17-point leads in the second half. The Eagles better develop that mentality, and fast.
Straight Up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia

The Match-up: New York Giants (+3.5) @ Seattle
The Skinny: The talk around Giants Nation is that Sunday’s comeback represented the coming of age of Eli Manning. We’ll see how he plays in Seattle on Sunday. Alexander vs. Tiki is always an intriguing match-up.
Straight Up: Seattle
Against the Spread: Seattle

The Match-up: Denver (+7.0) @ New England
The Skinny: I can only assume that Tom Brady’s slow start has been partially due to the fact that he’s been looking ahead to this game - a chance for redemption after the Broncos handed Brady his first ever playoff loss in January. Well, that and the fact that he’s got nobody to throw to anymore.
Straight Up: New England
Against the Spread: New England

Monday, September 25, 2006

The Match-up: Atlanta (-3.5) @ New Orleans
The Skinny: The Saints are back home in New Orleans, and 46-year old Morten Andersen will be kicking for the Falcons. Just like old times in the Big Easy. If Ron Mexico keeps playing like this, I might have to stop calling him Ron Mexico.
Straight Up: Atlanta
Against the Spread: Atlanta

Bye Week: Dallas, Kansas City, Oakland, San Diego

The Week 2 Picks

Welcome to Week 2, a week that features multiple intriguing division match-ups and five games with double-digit point spreads. In terms of picking winners, double-digit lines make things pretty easy. But how many points are too many to leave on the board? Always tough to call. And yes, I’m hedging...

Sunday, September 17, 2006

The Match-up: Oakland (+12.0) @ Baltimore
The Skinny: Either the Chargers defense is one of the best in the NFL, or the Raiders or just that bad. Actually, it’s probably a little of both. Or a lot of both. No relief in site for Oakland, as the Raiders head to Baltimore. The Ravens are coming off their own dominant defensive effort in Tampa in which they made Chris Simms look like, well, Aaron Brooks.
Straight Up: Baltimore
Against the Spread: Baltimore

The Match-up: New Orleans (-2.0) @ Green Bay
The Skinny: It seems to be a regular occurrence now, but there used to be a time when it would be headline news if the Packers were a home dog, especially against a team like New Orleans. I’m not ready to stick the fork in Brett Favre just yet. But check with me again on Monday.
Straight Up: Green Bay
Against the Spread: Green Bay

The Match-up: Houston (+13.5) @ Indianapolis
The Skinny: The Texans traded for Green Bay RB Samkon Gado this week, meaning their running back depth chart now reads Wali Lundy, Ron Dayne, Samkon Gado. I don’t know, do you think that Reggie Bush guy might have helped out any? Even Sam Bowie thinks the Texans botched the 2006 draft.
Straight Up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Indianapolis

The Match-up: Buffalo (+6.5) @ Miami
The Skinny: Miami should be well rested coming off an 11-day layoff, and they had chance to beat the Steelers in the season-opener. Buffalo, on the other hand, came from ahead to lose on a safety in New England a week ago. I’m guessing they won’t stay that close to the Dolphins.
Straight Up: Miami
Against the Spread: Miami

The Match-up: Carolina (-1.5) @ Minnesota
The Skinny: So, even without Steve Smith, the 0-1 Panthers who were dismantled by Atlanta at home last week are favored in Minnesota, fresh off their road win Monday in Washington? That tells me a lot.
Straight Up: Carolina
Against the Spread: Carolina

The Match-up: Tampa Bay (+5.5) @ Atlanta
The Skinny: If you thought Ray Lewis made life difficult for Chris Simms, wait until you see what John Abraham does. I know it was only one game, but I can’t think of a free agent defensive player that had as much of an impact as Abraham did last week in Carolina.
Straight Up: Atlanta
Against the Spread: Atlanta

The Match-up: New York Giants (+3.0) @ Philadelphia
The Skinny: The Giants and Eagles were both impressive a week ago - the Eagles in victory, the Giants in defeat. Either way, we learned a lot about both teams. We’ll learn a lot more after the NFC East opener at the Linc.
Straight Up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia

The Match-up: Detroit (+8.5) @ Chicago
The Skinny: Lions WR Roy Williams was running his gums this week, saying that there’s not a defense that can stop the Lions’ offense. Actually, I can think of a couple. At the top of the list are the Chicago Bears. Across the field this week are the Chicago Bears. Williams said film study revealed that the Lions were close to scoring 40 points against Seattle. They finished with six. I do expect better a better offensive effort from Detroit, but not enough to upset the Bears (as predicted by Williams).
Straight Up: Chicago
Against the Spread: Detroit

The Match-up: Cleveland (+10.0) @ Cincinnati
The Skinny: The Bengals offense was very ho-hum against the Chiefs last week, but that could change if T.J. Who’s-your-momma returns to the line up and gives Carson Palmer another target. Chad Johnson has been surprisingly quiet coming into a game against a secondary to which he once sent cases of Pepto Bismol. Makes me think he’s planning something big.
Straight Up: Cincinnati
Against the Spread: Cleveland

The Match-up: St. Louis (-3.0) @ San Francisco
The Skinny: Even though he only threw one touchdown pass against the Cardinals, Niners QB Alex Smith already matched his TD total from 2005. The new Rams game plan appears to be predicated on running the ball and playing good defense. Coincidentally, Mike Martz is no longer their coach.
Straight Up: St. Louis
Against the Spread: St. Louis

The Match-up: Arizona (+7.0) @ Seattle
The Skinny: There are some who feel Arizona can challenge Seattle in the NFC West. An upset of the Seahawks in Seattle this week would go a long way towards building their case. While I like Arizona’s receivers, I’m not crazy about their offensive line. I could see the underrated Seahawks defense taking over this game.
Straight Up: Seattle
Against the Spread: Seattle

The Match-up: Kansas City (+10.5) @ Denver
The Skinny: If Trent Green didn’t think he was Batman, I would take Kansas City and the points in Denver. As it turns out, Damon Huard will get the start for the Chiefs. I said Damon Huard. Suddenly Jake Plummer isn’t looking so bad, is he?
Straight Up: Denver
Against the Spread: Denver

The Match-up: New England (-6.0) @ New York Jets
The Skinny: Perhaps having some closure to the Deion Branch debacle will help the Patriots focus on the guys that are actually on the field. Tom Brady and company get untracked this week against the Jets.
Straight Up: New England
Against the Spread: New England

The Match-up: Tennessee (+11.5) @ San Diego
The Skinny: The new version of the ‘85 Bears host a Tennessee team featuring Kerry Collins at QB. It warrants mentioning that Collins was dismissed by the Raiders in favor of Aaron Brooks, who San Diego had their way with on Monday. Could be another big game for Shawne Merriman and company.
Straight Up: San Diego
Against the Spread: San Diego

The Match-up: Washington (+6.0) @ Dallas
The Skinny: Instead of spending Monday night bumping elbows with Tom Cruise, Daniel Snyder should have been on the phone trying to address his quarterback deficiency. Mark Brunell and the Redskin offense converted on only four of 13 third down chances, and that cost them the game against the Vikings. The Scientologist can’t help you there, Danny, but I hear Jeff George is available.
Straight Up: Washington
Against the Spread: Washington

Monday, September 18, 2006

The Match-up: Pittsburgh (-1.5) @ Jacksonville
The Skinny: Not sure why so many people are saying Jacksonville "upset" Dallas last week. The Jags (who were 12-4 last year by the way) were favored to win the game. Needless to say, I was not surprised that they delivered. Dethroning the World Champions who may or may not have Ben Roethlisberger back under center? That would qualify as an upset.
Straight Up: Pittsburgh
Against the Spread: Pittsburgh

Week 1 Wrap Up

Week 1 is in the books, and this guy hit the Weekend Trifecta – Notre Dame won on Saturday (throttling Penn State 41-17), the Eagles won on Sunday (24-10 over the Reggie Bush-less Houston Texans), and the stinkin’ Cowboys lost in Jacksonville (hee hee).

Ah, but the good fortune was only beginning. It turns out that the San Diego Chargers nine-sack shutout of the Oakland Raiders not only propelled "Bonzi’s Pecans" to a Week 1 win over "Action Jackson," but also resulted in the high point total for the Week, and an extra few bucks in this guy’s pocket.

And, showing no signs of rust from the long off-season, The Kid opens 2006 with a 12-4 straight-up record and a 10-6 mark against the spread. As for the lifetime record, I was able to recover the file. The tale of the tape is as follows:

Straight Up
2002 157-98-1 (.616)
2003 159-97-0 (.621)
2004 170-86-0 (.664)
2005 171-85-0 (.668)

Against the Spread
2002 129-127-0 (.504)
2003 120-136-0 (.469)
2004 137-119-0 (.535)
134-111-11 (.547)

The 12-4 and 10-6 Week 1 records represent my best opening week since I’ve been doing this. Usually it takes a couple of weeks to know who’s for real and who’s not, so the fact that Week 1 was so strong is hopefully a sign of good things to come. Stay tuned.

Here are some random thoughts from Week 1…

Most Impressive Teams
Baltimore Ravens: The new-look Ravens, with a new quarterback and the same old defense, went to Tampa and hung a 27-0 beat down on the Bucs. After only one week, Steve McNair sure looks like the missing link. Ray Lewis is back at 100% health, and maybe its because he missed 10 games last year, but you almost forget how dominant he can be.

Atlanta Falcons: The Falcons opened with a very impressive win in Carolina, behind the running of Warrick Dunn and the play making of Ron Mexico. Atlanta’s defense completely shut down Carolina’s short-handed offense (more on this in a minute).

Least Impressive Teams
Carolina Panthers: I know they were without Steve Smith, but Carolina’s vaunted defense was gashed for 253 yards on the ground, and they lost two players (LT Travelle Wharton and LB Dan Morgan) to injury. I don’t think it’s time for everybody’s Super Bowl pick to push the panic button, but the Panthers’ weakness may have been exposed.

Seattle Seahawks: How’s that Super Bowl runner-up curse working for you? I know they won, but maybe they miss LG Steve Hutchinson more than they let on. Shaun Alexander garnered 51 yards and a fumble, and the rest of the Seahawk offense could only accumulate nine points against the Detroit Lions? They’re not the ’85 Bears. Seattle did trade for disgruntled Patriot Deion Branch, so we’ll see how that works out.

Denver Broncos: Jake Plummer looked like a different quarterback all of last season, tossing only seven picks and becoming a much better game-manager. Jake Plummer of Sunday looked like Jake Plummer circa 2003, turning the ball over three times in Denver’s loss to St. Louis.

Offensive Player of the Week
Frank Gore, San Francisco 49ers – Gore amassed 170 total yards and 2 TD’s on 22 touches. He was very impressive in a losing effort.

Defensive Player of the Week
(tie) John Abraham, Atlanta Falcons; Shawne Merriman, San Diego Chargers – Abraham was all over the field in Carolina, recording 5 tackles, a sack, a pass break-up, and 2 forced fumbles. Merriman was equally unblockable, notching 6 tackles and 3 sacks in Monday night’s shutout of the Raiders.

Quick Hitters
Nice debut for Reggie Bush in New Orleans, eh?

Attention Fantasy Footballers – pick up Jay Cutler – now.

High marks for the new Monday Night Football crew. I’ve been a Pardon the Interruption fan for a while, so I’m a big Tony Kornheiser guy. And a lot of people seem to be down on Joe Theismann, but he’s a Domer, meaning he’s alright by me.

Speaking of MNF, I can’t look at Suzy Kolber without thinking of an inebriated Joe Namath falling all over her. One of the funniest things I’ve ever seen.

What’s up with the sissy throwing of the red challenge flags? Nick Saban and Bill Parcells both threw in their flags late and did so in passive fashion. Hard to say if it cost either, but you’d better believe if Bill Cowher wants to challenge a play, he’d hit the referee with the flag before he’s let it go unseen.

The Week 1 Picks

Sunday, September 10th

The Match-up: Baltimore (+3.0) @ Tampa Bay
The Skinny: Nothing like starting off the year with a flip-flop game. My gut tells me that Tampa is good, but not great and that the Ravens are exponentially better with Steve McNair at quarterback.
Straight Up: Baltimore
Against the Spread: Baltimore

The Match-up: New Orleans (+3.0) @ Cleveland
The Skinny: You think I’m going against my sleeper this early? I am interested to see how many carries Reggie Bush gets, but I like the Browns to start off on a good note in the pound.
Straight Up: Cleveland
Against the Spread: Cleveland

The Match-up: Atlanta (+5.0) @ Carolina
The Skinny: Atlanta’s DeAngelo Hall might catch a break after calling out Panthers WR Steve Smith this week, because if Smith is on the field, he’ll beat Hall like a rented mule.
Straight Up: Carolina
Against the Spread: Atlanta

The Match-up: Seattle (-6.0) @ Detroit
The Skinny: The Seahawks open their NFC title defense in Motown looking to break the dreaded Super Bowl loser curse. If it’s going to unravel for Seattle, it probably won’t be this week.
Straight Up: Seattle
Against the Spread: Seattle

The Match-up: Philadelphia (-4.5) @ Houston
The Skinny: You’ve got to love a match up between an outstanding Philadelphia defensive line and a Houston offensive front that surrendered a league high 68 sacks a year ago. Well, unless you’re David Carr.
Straight Up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia

The Match-up: New York Jets (+3.0) @ Tennessee
The Skinny: Kerry Collins will likely start for the Titans after joining the club on August 28th. And the Titans drafted Vince Young 3rd overall in the April draft. Nice knowing you, Billy Volek!
Straight Up: Tennessee
Against the Spread: Tennessee

The Match-up: Cincinnati (+2.5) @ Kansas City
The Skinny: This line should tell me something. Cincinnati, one of my picks for the AFC Championship game, is an underdog in Kansas City? I don’t see it. Arrowhead is a tough place to play, but I’m on board with the Bengals this year. This could be the first game where I second-guess myself.
Straight Up: Cincinnati
Against the Spread: Cincinnati

The Match-up: Denver (-3.5) @ St. Louis
The Skinny: To prepare Jake Plummer for this season, Denver coach Mike Shanahan pumped in noise of the Broncos faithful vociferously calling for rookie Jay Cutler. Get used to it, Jake.
Straight Up: Denver
Against the Spread: Denver

The Match-up: Buffalo (+9.0) @ New England
The Skinny: If Deion Branch had any sense, he’d get his butt to Foxboro ASAP. He’s not going to find in a better situation than the one he’s got in New England. The Patriots will roll, even without Branch.
Straight Up: New England
Against the Spread: New England

The Match-up: Dallas (+2.5) @ Jacksonville
The Skinny: Memo to Jaguars defense – please take it easy on TOFU and his "strained hamstring." I don’t want that scrub to have any excuse to miss the October 8th game in Philly.
Straight Up: Jacksonville
Against the Spread: Jacksonville

The Match-up: Chicago (-3.5) @ Green Bay
The Skinny: Sunday marks what could be the beginning of the Brett Favre farewell tour. The same could be said for Chicago’s Rex Grossman. It’s possible that neither will be starting by the end of the year. Or by the end of this game.
Straight Up: Chicago
Against the Spread: Chicago

The Match-up: San Francisco (+7.5) @ Arizona
The Skinny: The last time the Cardinals were favored by seven and a half? 1986. Alright, I made that up. But it sounds believable, doesn’t it?
Straight Up: Arizona
Against the Spread: Arizona

The Match-up: Indianapolis (-3.5) @ New York Giants
The Skinny: Though it’s being billed as Manning Bowl I, this game is really all about defense, and which of these two talented units can make more plays. I’m going with the Colts, because I think Eli is more turnover-prone than Peyton.
Straight Up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Indianapolis

Monday, September 11, 2006

The Match-up: Minnesota (+4.5) @ Washington
The Skinny: The Redskins may be without Clinton Portis, putting them at a huge disadvantage. Even if Portis plays, Minnesota’s defense could take over this game by shutting him down and putting the game in Mark Brunell’s hands. It wouldn’t surprise me if the Vikings stole one in D.C.
Straight Up: Minnesota
Against the Spread: Minnesota

The Match-up: San Diego (-3.0) @ Oakland
The Skinny: So, the Raiders were so unhappy with their quarterbacks that they signed Jeff George off the scrap heap only to cut him, leaving them in a worse situation with Aaron Brooks back at the top of the depth chart. I wonder if Brady Quinn has started to plan his John Elway escape strategy yet.
Straight Up: San Diego
Against the Spread: San Diego

A Sleeper, Caveats, and a Pick...the 2006 Season Starts Tonight!

One final order of business before we get into the 2006-07 season. My sleeper team for this year is...the Cleveland Browns! Now, when some people think of a sleeper, they think of a team that comes out of nowhere to win a championship. I view a sleeper as a team that nobody is talking about that will be better than people think, and will be a tough out if they’re on the schedule. I had a few teams in mind, but they don’t fit my true definition, therefore I’m going with one of the two teams I named in Week 15 last season (the other team was Miami, and nobody is sleeping on them). Cleveland has good young players on offense (QB Charlie Frye, WR Braylon Edwards, and TE Kellen Winslow II), a decent defense (bolstered by the veteran leadership of ex-Pat Willie McGinest) and a head coach that possesses a winning attitude and pedigree. The Browns are headed in the right direction.

And now, the 2006 picks. If you’re new to this, you need to no a few general rules I live by in terms of picking games, such as:
1. I always take the Eagles, straight up and against the spread, regardless of opponent, location, or line.
2. I NEVER take the Cowboys, straight up and against the spread, regardless of opponent, location, or line.
3. I am not sanctioned by the NFL, which means I can tell you if I think a team sucks without repercussions.
4. Some "experts" have a ‘Lock of the Week’ and/or an ‘Upset of the Week,’ which is simply a gimmick. I do not imply such tactics. If I don’t see an upset happening in a particular week, I won’t call for one. And I think all of my picks are locks, or else I wouldn’t pick them.
5. Last and perhaps most importantly, the picks are provided for your entertainment only. If you use them to gamble and win some money, I don’t accept kickbacks. Conversely, if you lose your lunch money for listening to my dumb ass, that’s on you. I will not be held responsible.

This is the beginning of my fifth year of picking every NFL game, which started as me reading a column by a guy named Pete O’Brien in USA Today about six years ago. Some of the guy’s picks were so out of line that I jotted down my own picks and compared to his on Monday. Needless to say, I hit most of my picks. I actually compiled my record over the last four seasons. Unfortunately, computer problems preclude me from accessing the file right now, but I will pass it along when I can. One thing I do remember is that my win totals have increased in each of the four years. And last I checked, Pete O’Brien is no longer employed by USA Today. Score one for The Kid...

The Match-up: Miami (Pick) @ Pittsburgh
The Skinny: I’ve gone back and forth on this one. After Ben Roethlisberger’s appendectomy shelved him for the opener, I started leaning towards the Fins. But in Pittsburgh, where they will hang a Super Bowl banner and honor the recently retired Jerome Bettis, the atmosphere should be sensational. While I like the look of the Dolphins this year, I think the Steelers will ride the emotion of Heinz Field and the defense (and The Bus) to a close win over Miami.
Straight Up: Pittsburgh
Against the Spread: Pittsburgh

For the Record, the 2006 Predictions

Divisional Standings ("*" indicates playoff team)

AFC East
1. Miami Dolphins*
2. New England Patriots*
3. New York Jets
4. Buffalo Bills

AFC North
1. Baltimore Ravens*
2. Cincinnati Bengals*
3. Pittsburgh Steelers
4. Cleveland Browns

AFC South
1. Indianapolis Colts*
2. Jacksonville Jaguars
3. Houston Texans
4. Tennessee Titans

AFC West
1. Denver Broncos*
2. San Diego Chargers
3. Kansas City Chiefs
4. Oakland Raiders

NFC East
1. Philadelphia Eagles*
2. New York Giants*
3. Washington Redskins
4. Dallas Cowboys

NFC North
1. Chicago Bears*
2. Minnesota Vikings
3. Detroit Lions
4. Green Bay Packers

NFC South
1. Carolina Panthers*
2. Atlanta Falcons*
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
4. New Orleans Saints

NFC West
1. Seattle Seahwaks*
2. Arizona Cardinals
3. St. Louis Rams
4. San Francisco 49ers

AFC Championship: Indianapolis over Cincinnati
NFC Championship: Philadelphia over Carolina
Super Bowl XLI: Philadelphia over Indianapolis

Individual Awards

Most Valuable Player: Carson Palmer, Cincinnati - There will be plenty of worthy candidates, but I’m going with Palmer. You can’t emphasize his importance enough, not just for his physical ability but maybe more valuable is the emotional lift he brings to his team. I firmly believe that Palmer will lead the Bengals back to the playoffs, and Cincinnati can make a run at the AFC Championship.
Honorable Mention: Donovan McNabb, Philadelphia; Peyton Manning, Indianapolis

Offensive Player of the Year: Larry Johnson, Kansas City - I’m going on the assumption that last year’s second half was no fluke. True, he’ll miss Al Saunders’ system and left tackle Willie Roaf, but Herm Edwards is a run-first guy, and he’ll put the ball in Johnson’s hands on first, second, and third down. A 2,000-yard season is not out of the question, even if the post-season is.
Honorable Mention: Shaun Alexander, Seattle; Tiki Barber, New York Giants

Defensive Player of the Year: Shawne Merriman, San Diego - Last year’s defensive rookie of the year is a freak, and covers the field like nobody the league has seen in a while. Merriman can blitz off the edge in San Diego’s 3-4, can chase down running backs, and he can even play coverage. Merriman is the best of the new breed of defensive player in the NFL.
Honorable Mention: Brian Urlacher, Chicago; Jeremiah Trotter, Philadelphia

Offensive Rookie of the Year: Joseph Addai, Indianapolis - Bet you thought I was going to take the easy way out with Reggie Bush, huh? Addai will be starting for the Colts by the end of the year, and with the threat of Peyton Manning and the aerial attack, he’ll find plenty of running space for a team that could (should?) win the AFC.
Honorable Mention: Reggie Bush, New Orleans; DeAngelo Williams, Carolina

Defensive Rookie of the Year: Brodrick Bunkley, Philadelphia - On a defense replete with pro bowl talent, Bunkley ascended to opening week starter despite missing the first 29 practices of training camp. You don’t do that if you’re not incredibly talented. Bunkley’s impact will be felt almost as quickly.
Honroable Mention: Kamerion Wimbley, Cleveland; Mario Williams, Houston

Coach of the Year: Andy Reid, Philadelphia - After all the Eagles had to endure last year, with the injuries and the sophomoric behavior of a particular piece of crap receiver, the Eagles will return to their rightful place among the NFC’s elite. Credit Reid for resurrecting the locker room that was split a year ago, and for his unwavering belief in his team’s leaders (McNabb, Dawkins, and Trotter) to handle the rest.
Honorable Mention: Marvin Lewis, Cincinnati; Brian Billick, Baltimore

Comeback Player of the Year: Daunte Culpepper, Miami - Not only has Culpepper made it all the way back from a knee injury that almost ended his career, but he’s landed on his feet with a new team and in perhaps the best possible situation with outstanding players around him.
Honorable Mention: Carson Palmer, Cincinnati; Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh