NFC East
Dallas Cowboys: They suck.
Fantasy Extra: I never comment on Cowboys players from a fantasy perspective, since they are never even under consideration. I told a couple of other Eagles fans in my league that if any of them drafted TOFU, I would kick them in the balls. We do have a Dallas fan in the league, and he of course drafted TOFU. I hope he enjoys his five weeks of TOFU, because his season ends October 8th when he goes across the middle and Brian Dawkins freakin’ obliterates him. That is, if TOFU doesn’t jake it and come up with another "strained hamstring."
New York Giants: The G-Men climbed to the top of the NFC East last season in Eli Manning’s first year as the full-time starter, largely because of his supporting cast. Since he re-committed himself to taking care of the football, Tiki Barber has been among the most valuable running backs in the league. Plaxico Burress came over from the Steelers after the 2004 year and put up 1,200+ yards as a perfect compliment to tight end Jeremy Shockey in the passing game. The Giants defense, featuring new linebacker LaVar Arrington, is strong, especially up front. Both Michael Strahan and Osi Umenyiora can get after the quarterback, which masks a suspect secondary. This should be the year Eli makes the leap, and the Giants are thinking more than playoffs this time around.
Fantasy Extra: Manning won’t put up the same numbers as big brother Peyton, but he should make fewer mistakes. The Giants love big back Brandon Jacobs in short yardage and goal line situations.
Philadelphia Eagles: The post-Super Bowl curse got the Eagles last year, and they sunk like a stone in the ocean. Sure, it had a lot to do with TOFU, but injuries to key players like Donovan McNabb and Brian Westbrook derailed the offense, and the cupboard behind them was bare. This year, things certainly look different. The Eagles are stronger along the offensive line (they average 6’5", 331 lbs), the receiving corps is deeper than most people want to give them credit for, and McNabb and Westbrook are healthy and ready to lead this team back to prominence. The defense appears re-focused and looks like the defense that carried the Birds to four straight NFC championship games. As favorable as the early schedule appears, the late schedule looks equally brutal. I love that the Eagles are flying under the radar. They are going to shock the world.
Fantasy Extra: The acquisition of Donte’ Stallworth might be just what the doctor ordered for McNabb. Westbrook is a threat to score every time he touches the ball. Keep an eye on WR Reggie Brown. David "Automatic" Akers should rack up the points.
Washington Redskins: Boy, have the Redskins had a tough pre-season. First, star running back Clinton Portis separated his shoulder in the first pre-season game (making a tackle following a Mark Brunell interception). Then, the ‘Skins got blasted 41-0 in New England. All this after Daniel Snyder bought everyone he wanted in the off-season (including Tom Cruise). The offense has struggled without Portis, and Gregg Williams’ defense has been shredded. The Redskins did go out and get T.J. Duckett, but he’s not a featured back. Washington was in the playoffs last year, but they don’t look like a playoff team right now. Are they really as bad as they seem, or did they just have a bad exhibition season? Time will tell.
Fantasy Extra: If Portis is healthy, he should benefit immensely from new offensive coordinator Al Saunders’ scheme as Larry Johnson did a year ago.
NFC North
Chicago Bears: How far can a defense carry a team? Well, in the NFC North, all the way to a division title and a first-round bye. Unfortunately for the Bears, the end of the line was that bye week. It’s not that the offense doesn’t have talent (both Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson are capable running backs). Quarterback Rex Grossman can’t seem to stay healthy, which prompted the signing of Brian Griese, who might unseat Grossman as the starter even if he’s not injured. The combination of Griese, Jones/Benson, and wide receiver Muhsin Muhammad should provide at least a little bit of offense. And with their defense and the lack of competition within the division, a little might be enough.
Fantasy Extra: All eleven starters from last year’s top ranked defense, including reigning defensive player of the year (LB Brian Urlacher), are back. Go ahead and take a chance on Griese.
Detroit Lions: There are those who believe that the Lions can legitimately challenge the Bears for the North division title. I do not happen to be among this group. I do think they have improved on offense with the addition of Jon Kitna (hey, they used to have Joey Harrington). But I’m not sure they’ve totally recovered from blowing three straight first round draft choices on receivers. One, Charles Rogers, was released yesterday, and the other, Mike Williams, is buried on the depth chart. I like Kevin Jones running the ball, and Roy Williams makes highlight-reel catches. Defensively, the Lions are solid, but not spectacular. They may be the second best team in the North, but that’s like being the second most talented Baldwin brother.
Fantasy Extra: Jones and Williams should put up decent numbers, and Kitna isn’t the worst option as a back-up QB. Kicker Jason Hanson remains reliable, especially with eight home games indoors.
Green Bay Packers: I’m the first guy to say that a player like Brett Favre should be able to walk away from the game on his own terms. But I’m shocked that he didn’t walk after last year. The 4-12 Packers certainly appear to have bottomed out, led by Favre and his 29 picks. At some point in time, they’re going to have to figure out if Aaron Rodgers can be a starter in this league or if they’re going to have to tank the year to try and get Brady Quinn. Ahman Green is over the hill, and Donald Driver is the only receiver who Favre seems to trust. The defense picked up some names (like corner Charles Woodson and linebacker A.J. Hawk, their number one draft choice), but the team is about two years overdue for re-building.
Fantasy Extra: For all of the interceptions, Favre still throws for a lot of yards and TD’s, probably because the Packers are often playing from behind. Wait, that didn’t really sound good. Let’s just move on…
Minnesota Vikings: To say that the 2005 Minnesota Vikings had off-field issues would be a colossal understatement. Mike Tice got busted for Super Bowl ticket scalping and was dismissed as head coach. There was also the infamous ‘Sex Cruise,’ which earned a couple of players a date in court. This year hasn’t started much better, with receiver Koren Robinson being released after his DUI and safety Dwight Smith’s public fornication arrest. Other than that, it’s a new era in Minnesota, with a new head coach (Brad Childress), an old quarterback (Brad Johnson), and a revamped defense that will be better than people expect, especially up front. It might not be enough to challenge Chicago, but Minnesota should be looking down at Detroit and Green Bay.
Fantasy Extra: The Vikings really like RB Chester Taylor, imported from Baltimore, for his versatility. The defense suffered a blow when LB Chad Greenway was lost for the year, but they’re still not a bad play with cupcakes like San Fran, Buffalo, the Jets and Green Bay on the schedule.
NFC South
Atlanta Falcons: Speaking to an Atlanta Falcons insider, I’ve got a pretty good feeling about this team. Their defense, which was their obvious weakness a year ago, is much improved with the acquisition of defensive end John Abraham and signing of run-stuffing tackle Grady Jackson and safety Lawyer Milloy. They also added another receiver in Ashley Lelie, who might actually be an asset to Ron Mexico for his ability to stretch the field. T.J. Duckett is gone, and the new back up to Warrick Dunn is a rookie with the look of a sensational back in Jerrious Norwood. About the only thing that isn’t in Atlanta’s favor is the schedule. The South is tough, plus the Falcons play the NFC East and NFC North, meaning games with the Giants, Eagles, Redskins, Ravens, Bengals, and Steelers. Tough sledding, indeed.
Fantasy Extra: Mexico’s favorite target is TE Alge Crumpler, and with the deep threats at wideout, Crumpler could put up big numbers. So could Dunn, who won’t be removed on the goal line anymore.
Carolina Panthers: There’s a reason that everyone is picking Carolina to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. They’re talented, they’re deep, they’re well-coached, and after last year’s loss in the NFC championship game, they’re hungry. The added players like receiver Keyshawn Johnson, linebacker Na’il Diggs, and rookie running back DeAngelo Williams who should all fill in gaps. The defense might be the best in the league, with playmakers like Julius Peppers, Kris Jenkins, Dan Morgan, Mike Minter and Chris Gamble. And I haven’t mentioned Steve Smith yet. Smith was constantly double-teamed last year and still managed to amass 1,500+ yards and 12 touchdowns. He’s scary good. If Jake Delhomme avoids major injury, the Panthers are as good as choice as any to end up in Miami.
Fantasy Extra: DeAngelo Williams is a fantasy sleeper. He was the NCAA’s all-purpose yardage leader, and not only will he return kicks but he’s the back-up to injury-prone RB DeShaun Foster.
New Orleans Saints: The good news for the Saints? Houston passed on Reggie Bush, so New Orleans drafted him number two. They get Deuce McAllister back from injury and sign free agent quarterback Drew Brees. They’ll actually play their home games in New Orleans after the Superdome re-opens after being damaged during Hurricane Katrina. The bad news? The Saints have a new head coach, a porous defense that can’t compete in the loaded NFC South, and they dealt receiver Donte’ Stallworth after his breakout year last year. Bush will bring some excitement, but the bottom line is the Saints are still light years behind the rest of the division (and most of the conference for that matter).
Fantasy Extra: Brees is coming off a major shoulder injury, and without Stallworth, his only option is the aging Joe Horn. McAllister will start at RB, but Bush will see a lot of reps.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Quick, who won the NFC South last year? You guessed it. The Bucs rode quarterback Chris Simms and rookie of the year running back Carnell "Cadillac" Williams to the division crown. Simms, now the unquestioned starter with Brian Griese jettisoned to Chicago, is poised for another big year. Jon Gruden is hoping that new receiver David Boston finds the same fountain of youth that Joey Galloway discovered last year. The rest of the offense is relatively unchanged. Another constant is the defense, with Super Bowl holdovers Simeon Rice, Derrick Brooks, and Ronde Barber. What is new are the expectations. Nobody was picking the Bucs last year and they kind of flew under the radar. How will they deal with the tables turned?
Fantasy Extra: Tampa had the top-ranked statistical defense last year, so look for them to maybe take a small step backwards. A sophomore slump for Cadillac? Hardly.
NFC West
Arizona Cardinals: There’s a lot of ‘New’ with the Arizona Cardinals. There’s a new franchise running back (Edgerrin James), a beautiful new stadium with a retractable roof and a natural grass field that gets rolled in on game days, and an all-new feeling of optimism within the organization. Why? In addition to the aforementioned, did you know that Kurt Warner led the league in 300-yard games last year? Or that the Cards own a pair of 1,000-yard receivers? Or that their defense was ranked eighth in the league last year? Eighth! Oh, and they drafted this Matt Leinart kid, who I hear was pretty good in college. Yes, there are a lot of people picking the Cards to not only make the playoffs, but maybe even challenge the defending NFC champion Seahawks for the division. Arizona hosting a playoff game that isn’t a Super Bowl. That certainly would be ‘New.’
Fantasy Extra: I was down on James at the beginning of training camp, but I’ve started to come around, and not just because I drafted him. In two games each against San Francisco and St. Louis, James should be good for 500 yards and 4-5 TD’s. Take a good hard look at Leinart. You know Warner is.
San Francisco 49ers: 2006 will be better for the 49ers. Why? Because, quite frankly, it can’t get worse than last year. Well, maybe it could. Mike Nolan enters his second year as head coach, and he continues to unload pieces of the old regime. Gone are linebackers Julian Peterson and Andre Carter, cornerback Mike Rumph, and running back Kevan Barlow. In are one-time pro-bowl guard Larry Allen and rookie freak tight end Vernon Davis. By all accounts, Smith has had a decent camp, but it will take a lot for the former number one overall pick to will this team. The defense is depleted, and the offense won’t be able to score enough to compensate for their deficiencies.
Fantasy Extra: The lone bright spot for the Niners could be RB Frank Gore, whose impressive rookie campaign made Barlow expendable.
Seattle Seahawks: I’ve been waiting for a team to buck the trend of Super Bowl losers failing to make the playoffs the following year. I think the wait is over. Seattle is still one of the most talented teams in the entire league, returning all-pros at quarterback (Matt Hasselbeck) and running back (league MVP Shaun Alexander). They’ve added versatile linebacker Julian Peterson to an already-strong defense. And, in case you haven’t noticed, the NFC West is relatively weak. Like the Eagles of two years ago, it would seemingly take a lot to keep Seattle from repeating as NFC champions. Lucky for them, TOFU can’t tear them apart.
Fantasy Extra: Alexander is still the top fantasy performer as far as I’m concerned. Hasselbeck has a great receiving corps with Nate Burleson coming over from the Vikings to pair with Darrell Jackson and Bobby Engram.
St. Louis Rams: Now that the tent has folded on "The Greatest Show on Turf," the Rams have committed to running the ball more, which makes sense since quarterback Marc Bulger seems to be hurt quite a bit. Running back Steven Jackson will be the focal point of the offense, though you could argue that St. Louis would still be better suited to attack through the air with receivers like Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce. Offense was never the question with the Rams, and they’ve changed coaches from the offensive-minded Mike Martz to the equally offensive-minded Scott Linehan, formerly with the Vikings. Again, defense is a major area of concern for St. Louis, and they won’t score 500 points like the Warner-Faulk-Holt Rams of old. Loosely translated, they’ll be on the outside looking in at the playoffs.
Fantasy Extra: Holt has been a model of consistency in terms of production, eclipsing 80 catches and 1,300 yards for the last six seasons. I’m not saying to dodge Bulger, but grab a capable back up just to be safe.
Monday, September 04, 2006
Friday, September 01, 2006
2006 AFC Preview
The pre-season is just about over, and thus begins my team-by-team capsule of all 32 teams. We'll start with the AFC, follow that up with the NFC, then lead into the weekly picks with the annual predictions column including division, wild card, and conference winners, MVP, and my exclusive 2006-07 Super Bowl champion (here's a hint - they wear midnight green and silver and hail from Philadelphia).
Before we get started, just wanted to pass along a quick update on "Bonzi's Pecans." The draft yielded fantasy standouts Tom Brady, Edge James, B-West, Plaxico, and the Colts defense. It also produced a pretty thin crop of wide receivers and a guy who is already out for the year (Jacksonville's Greg Jones, who at the time had a sprained MCL and would be available for the season opener). BP opens with a battle against Trent Green, LaDanian Tomlinson and the rest of "Action Jackson" in Week 1.
Here is your 2006-07 AFC Preview.
AFC East
Buffalo Bills: A few short years ago, Buffalo looked like a team on the rise. They had Drew Bledsoe, Travis Henry, Eric Moulds, and Peerless Price on offense and an above-average defense. Now, they’re basically starting over – again. The Bills recycled 118 year-old Marv Levy as GM and brought in Lions cast-off Dick Jauron as head coach. J.P. Losman won the starting quarterback job, which doesn’t sound that difficult. Willis McGahee looks to rebound from a disappointing 2005 season. Linebacker Takeo Spikes anchors the D, and he’s among the best in the game. But there’s not much help around him, and the schedule features trips to Chicago, Indianapolis, and Baltimore in addition to two games each with Miami and New England. Looks like the re-building of the Bills is still a work in progress.
Fantasy Extra: Other than McGahee, Buffalo’s top fantasy option is WR Lee Evans, who has scored 16 touchdowns in his two NFL seasons.
Miami Dolphins: In Week 15 of last season, I tabbed the Dolphins a potential sleeper in 2006, saying that Miami was a consistent quarterback away from challenging the Patriots in the East. Enter Daunte Culpepper, apparently fully recovered from a devastating knee injury suffered last October. Not since Randy Moss has Culpepper had a receiver like Chris Chambers, who is poised to have a sensational season. Second year man Ronnie Brown has all the makings of a pro-bowl running back. Did I mention that their defense is pretty good, too? Jason Taylor and Zack Thomas headline the stoppers. Super Bowl XLI is in Miami this year. Will the Fins get to play in the ultimate home game in February? Stay tuned…
Fantasy Extra: Take your pick – Culpepper, Brown, Chambers, and TE Randy McMichael, and Miami’s defense are all solid fantasy options.
New England Patriots: The Patriots had aspirations of a third consecutive championship last year, but something happened on the path to a three-peat. New England looks primed again, but they are (at present, anyway) missing a key player in wide receiver Deion Branch. Branch is looking to get paid like an elite receiver. Problem is, he’s never had a 1,000-yard season and never grabbed more than five touchdowns. He’s Tom Brady’s go-to guy, and he needs to get back with the team. Other than that, it looks like business as usual for Bill Belichick’s crew. The Patriots’ strength is on the defensive side of the ball with Richard Seymour and Tedy Bruschi. Until Miami runs them down, the Patriots are the team to beat in the East.
Fantasy Extra: Don’t sleep on rookie RB Laurence Maroney, who I think will supplant Corey Dillon as a starter by Week 8.
New York Jets: This was looking like a lean year for Gang Green even before Curtis Martin landed on the Physically Unable to Perform list. They’ve got a new head coach in Eric Mangini (a.k.a. Bill Belichick Lite), who named Chad Pennington as his starter at quarterback. The Jets will go with youngsters D’Brickashaw Ferguson and Nick Mangold on the O-line. To fill the void left by Martin’s injury, the Jets pried Kevan Barlow out of San Francisco. Rumor around the way is that they are in the Deion Branch discussion. While that would be a nice add, it won’t make them a playoff contended. The Jets suffered a major loss on defense when John Abraham was traded to Atlanta, and adding Kimo von Oelhoffen from the Steelers isn’t exactly the help that tackling-machine linebacker Jonathan Vilma could use.
Fantasy Extra: I personally wouldn’t trust Pennington, Barlow, or WR Laveranues Coles, would you?
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens: It appears as though the Kyle Boller experiment has ended in Baltimore, as the Ravens upgraded the quarterback position, reuniting Steve McNair with last year’s big acquisition, receiver Derrick Mason. They also added Mike Anderson from Denver and bolstered the defensive line with end Trevor Pryce and tackle Haloti Ngata. Oh, and they still have Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, Terrell Suggs, and Samari Rolle. Yeah, I like the Ravens chances this year. So should coach Brian Billick, because if the Ravens come up short of the post-season, Billick could be standing on the government cheese line in the spring.
Fantasy Extra: Remember how much McNair connected with TE Frank Wycheck when he was with Tennessee? Imagine the potential for Todd Heap. I’m predicting numbers for him this season.
Cincinnati Bengals: Suddenly the hunted instead of the hunter, the Bengals look to defend their division title of a season ago. Carson Palmer appears to be ready to go, and there is no doubt that he is the key to Cincinnati’s success (or failure). He’s got a dynamic receiver duo in Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh, and a franchise-type running back in Rudi Johnson. But the Bengals defense finished the 2005 season ranked 28th, which only emphasizes the importance of Palmer. As he goes, so go the Bengals (as witnessed in the playoffs last year). The rest of the North is better than they were a year ago, and the out-of-division schedule is loaded as well (at Tampa, Indy and Denver, home against New England, Carolina, Atlanta, and San Diego). If the Bengals are going to repeat, they’re going to have to earn it.
Fantasy Extra: Excessive celebration rule or not, WR Chad Johnson is sensational. But the guy to watch is Houshmandzadeh, who should see single-coverage with 85 on the other side of the field. Palmer led the league in touchdown passes a year ago. Rudi Johnson is a straight-up stud.
Cleveland Browns: When I called the Browns a potential sleeper for this year, I was looking at the potential of young guys like Charlie Frye and Braylon Edwards, plus the probable return of Corporal “Evil Kellen-evil” Winslow. They helped their case with the veteran leadership of Willie McGinest, receiver Joe Jurevicius, and prized free agent center LeCharles Bentley. Then Bentley pulled up lame in mini-camp. Regardless, the Browns are pointed in the right direction. But the ascent out of the North basement will be a slow one.
Fantasy Extra: Frye showed flashes at the end of the year, but you never know with first-time starting quarterbacks. Prior to his injury, Edwards looked like a game-breaker.
Pittsburgh Steelers: What’s not to like about a defending Super Bowl champion that as almost everybody coming back? That doesn’t mean there are no questions surrounding the Steelers. For starters, who replaces Jerome Bettis as the hammer on the goal line? Can Willie Parker replicate his success of a year ago? How serious is Hines Ward’s hamstring injury? Will the Bill Cowher Retirement Watch become a distraction? None of these issues take away from the fact that Pittsburgh is among the NFL’s elite. I’d be shocked if the Steelers didn’t make another deep run into the playoffs this year.
Fantasy Extra: If Parker can avoid wearing down as he did last year, he’s a legitimate number one fantasy back, especially since, minus The Bus, he should get more chances to punch the ball into the end zone.
AFC South
Houston Texans: The Texans took a BIG risk by passing on Reggie Bush in favor of defensive end Mario Williams. Whether or not that gamble pays off remains to be seen. Houston was active in the off-season, adding receiver Eric Moulds and tight end Jeb Putzier to run new coach Gary Kubiak’s offense. But an offensive line that continually allows quarterback David Carr little or no time to throw the ball is the Achilles Heel. Most of their off-season adds were on the defensive side of the ball, but Kubiak is in the midst of a scheme change, moving to the 4-3. The uncertain status on running back Domanick Davis further complicates matters. I don’t see the Texans making a serious run at the post-season. At least, not yet.
Fantasy Extra: If Davis can’t go, either Verrand Morency or Wali Lundy will start at RB. WR Andre Johnson should benefit from Moulds’ presence. That is, if Carr can stay upright.
Indianapolis Colts: For years the experts have wondered if the Colts could finally break through and win a championship. The more things change, the more they stay the same. Indianapolis lost one of its all-pro triplets, with Edgerrin James bolting for Arizona. But the Colts remain deep and talented on offense and will play running back by committee with Dominic Rhodes and rookie Joseph Addai. The defense, long a question mark, is good enough to carry this team far. It seems the only disconnect is between Peyton Manning’s ears. He got a rep in college as a guy who couldn’t win the big one. That rep has followed him to the pros, and until he’s the last man standing, that rep will persist. So, is this the year?
Fantasy Extra: Manning and WR Marvin Harrison are both consistent fantasy performers. The RB situation is up in the air. Indy’s defense is a potential fantasy powerhouse.
Jacksonville Jaguars: One of the most underrated defenses resides in Jacksonville, where head coach Jack Del Rio has put together a fast, aggressive, nasty unit. Del Rio was the architect of the Carolina Panthers defense, and this team has a similar feel. It all starts up front with tackles Marcus Stroud and John Henderson. The Jags defense needs to be good, because their offense is average. There’s a mini-quarterback controversy brewing, as some feel David Garrard should be under center instead of Byron Leftwich. Whoever starts will have a compliment of receivers trying to replace the retired Jimmy Smith. There is some big play potential there with Matt Jones and Reggie Williams. Jacksonville has been close to being very special. They simply need a couple of breaks to take it to the next level.
Fantasy Extra: Fred Taylor has been healthy for a few years now. Does that mean he’s due for a hamstring or groin pull? Ernest Wilford led the team in touchdown catches with 7 last season.
Tennessee Titans: Quite a conundrum in Nashville. The Titans have three quarterbacks and no starter, a bunch of running backs who want out of town or can’t stop spitting on teammates, and a first-round draft pick from a year ago at corner who can’t stay out of the back of police cars. They ran Steve McNair out of town, and there’s pressure for Jeff Fisher to throw Vince Young into a starting role. Young is probably not ready, hence the Kerry Collins signing. Chris Brown was thought to be on the block, but he’s still the starting running back. Adam “Pac Man” Jones has to be labeled a bust to this point in time. The Titans are a mess.
Fantasy Extra: Um, who is their kicker now?
AFC West
Denver Broncos: It was all set up for the Broncos last year. The AFC title game was in their barn. The sixth seeded Steelers were the opponent. And that was the moment Jake Plummer reverted back to his old ways. No wonder Denver tabbed Vanderbilt’s Jay Cutler as their quarterback of the future. Mike Shanahan must believe everything he hears about himself and how good his running system is, thus undrafted rookie Mike Bell starts behind the Snake. Denver won the Javon Walker sweepstakes, and their defense remains largely in tact. Denver’s got high hopes of hosting another AFC championship game, only this time they’re hoping for a better outcome.
Fantasy Extra: Having never played an NFL down, Mike Bell is a question mark. Tatum Bell is not out of the picture yet, either. No word on whether or not the Broncos are interested in signing Raja Bell, Jorge Bell, or Taco Bell.
Kansas City Chiefs: Expectations are high in K.C., not just for the team but for running back Larry Johnson as well. I’ve got to admit, when Johnson came out, I figured him to be the next great Penn State running back bust (Blair Thomas, Ki-Jana Carter, Curtis Enis). But he’s lived up to the hype. New coach Herm Edwards loves to run the football, which would seem to be a perfect fit for Johnson. The line may not be as strong as a year ago without left tackle Willie Roaf, but LJ will still get his. Trent Green is kind of a forgotten man in Kansas City, but he may be the key to the Chiefs playoff chances. The other key factor is the defense, where former head coach and defensive coordinator Gunther Cunningham returns. Bottom Line? LJ is electric, but he alone can’t carry this team into the post-season.
Fantasy Extra: Don’t let anybody fool you into taking Reggie Bush ahead of LJ. Remmember Tony Gonzalez? He’s still there, and will be Green’s go-to guy in the air again.
Oakland Raiders: You thought the Titans had quarterback issues? I did a double-take when I read the bottom line that said Oakland had signed Jeff George. Seriously? Isn’t he, like, 50? I mean, nobody thought Aaron Brooks was the answer. But they’ve got Andrew Walter, who Randy Moss seems to like. Why not go with him? LaMont Jordan will be facing nine and ten-man fronts. Oakland’s defense is a disaster. Warren Sapp is on the downside of his career, and Derrick Burgess likely won’t lead the league in sacks again. I hope Brady Quinn looks good in black, because the Raiders have the inside track on the first pick next April.
Fantasy Extra: If Walter plays, I like Moss. If not, avoid this team like the plague.
San Diego Chargers: The Chargers turn over a new leaf (sorry, poor choice of words) as the Philip Rivers era gets underway. Lucky for Rivers, he’s got perhaps the best all-around running back in LaDanian Tomlinson behind him. He’s also got a top tight end in Antonio Gates. Another break for Rivers? The Chargers open with Oakland and Tennessee before their bye in Week 3, meaning he should be able to ease into his new job. San Diego returns defensive rookie of the year Shawne Merriman as the playmaker in a 3-4 that was tops against the run in 2005. The Chargers are thinking playoffs, and I might be, too.
Fantasy Extra: If you don’t like Tomlinson’s game, you’ve got issues. I really like Rivers as a second QB. Watch for him to build a rapport with WR Eric Parker, who could be a gem.
Before we get started, just wanted to pass along a quick update on "Bonzi's Pecans." The draft yielded fantasy standouts Tom Brady, Edge James, B-West, Plaxico, and the Colts defense. It also produced a pretty thin crop of wide receivers and a guy who is already out for the year (Jacksonville's Greg Jones, who at the time had a sprained MCL and would be available for the season opener). BP opens with a battle against Trent Green, LaDanian Tomlinson and the rest of "Action Jackson" in Week 1.
Here is your 2006-07 AFC Preview.
AFC East
Buffalo Bills: A few short years ago, Buffalo looked like a team on the rise. They had Drew Bledsoe, Travis Henry, Eric Moulds, and Peerless Price on offense and an above-average defense. Now, they’re basically starting over – again. The Bills recycled 118 year-old Marv Levy as GM and brought in Lions cast-off Dick Jauron as head coach. J.P. Losman won the starting quarterback job, which doesn’t sound that difficult. Willis McGahee looks to rebound from a disappointing 2005 season. Linebacker Takeo Spikes anchors the D, and he’s among the best in the game. But there’s not much help around him, and the schedule features trips to Chicago, Indianapolis, and Baltimore in addition to two games each with Miami and New England. Looks like the re-building of the Bills is still a work in progress.
Fantasy Extra: Other than McGahee, Buffalo’s top fantasy option is WR Lee Evans, who has scored 16 touchdowns in his two NFL seasons.
Miami Dolphins: In Week 15 of last season, I tabbed the Dolphins a potential sleeper in 2006, saying that Miami was a consistent quarterback away from challenging the Patriots in the East. Enter Daunte Culpepper, apparently fully recovered from a devastating knee injury suffered last October. Not since Randy Moss has Culpepper had a receiver like Chris Chambers, who is poised to have a sensational season. Second year man Ronnie Brown has all the makings of a pro-bowl running back. Did I mention that their defense is pretty good, too? Jason Taylor and Zack Thomas headline the stoppers. Super Bowl XLI is in Miami this year. Will the Fins get to play in the ultimate home game in February? Stay tuned…
Fantasy Extra: Take your pick – Culpepper, Brown, Chambers, and TE Randy McMichael, and Miami’s defense are all solid fantasy options.
New England Patriots: The Patriots had aspirations of a third consecutive championship last year, but something happened on the path to a three-peat. New England looks primed again, but they are (at present, anyway) missing a key player in wide receiver Deion Branch. Branch is looking to get paid like an elite receiver. Problem is, he’s never had a 1,000-yard season and never grabbed more than five touchdowns. He’s Tom Brady’s go-to guy, and he needs to get back with the team. Other than that, it looks like business as usual for Bill Belichick’s crew. The Patriots’ strength is on the defensive side of the ball with Richard Seymour and Tedy Bruschi. Until Miami runs them down, the Patriots are the team to beat in the East.
Fantasy Extra: Don’t sleep on rookie RB Laurence Maroney, who I think will supplant Corey Dillon as a starter by Week 8.
New York Jets: This was looking like a lean year for Gang Green even before Curtis Martin landed on the Physically Unable to Perform list. They’ve got a new head coach in Eric Mangini (a.k.a. Bill Belichick Lite), who named Chad Pennington as his starter at quarterback. The Jets will go with youngsters D’Brickashaw Ferguson and Nick Mangold on the O-line. To fill the void left by Martin’s injury, the Jets pried Kevan Barlow out of San Francisco. Rumor around the way is that they are in the Deion Branch discussion. While that would be a nice add, it won’t make them a playoff contended. The Jets suffered a major loss on defense when John Abraham was traded to Atlanta, and adding Kimo von Oelhoffen from the Steelers isn’t exactly the help that tackling-machine linebacker Jonathan Vilma could use.
Fantasy Extra: I personally wouldn’t trust Pennington, Barlow, or WR Laveranues Coles, would you?
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens: It appears as though the Kyle Boller experiment has ended in Baltimore, as the Ravens upgraded the quarterback position, reuniting Steve McNair with last year’s big acquisition, receiver Derrick Mason. They also added Mike Anderson from Denver and bolstered the defensive line with end Trevor Pryce and tackle Haloti Ngata. Oh, and they still have Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, Terrell Suggs, and Samari Rolle. Yeah, I like the Ravens chances this year. So should coach Brian Billick, because if the Ravens come up short of the post-season, Billick could be standing on the government cheese line in the spring.
Fantasy Extra: Remember how much McNair connected with TE Frank Wycheck when he was with Tennessee? Imagine the potential for Todd Heap. I’m predicting numbers for him this season.
Cincinnati Bengals: Suddenly the hunted instead of the hunter, the Bengals look to defend their division title of a season ago. Carson Palmer appears to be ready to go, and there is no doubt that he is the key to Cincinnati’s success (or failure). He’s got a dynamic receiver duo in Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh, and a franchise-type running back in Rudi Johnson. But the Bengals defense finished the 2005 season ranked 28th, which only emphasizes the importance of Palmer. As he goes, so go the Bengals (as witnessed in the playoffs last year). The rest of the North is better than they were a year ago, and the out-of-division schedule is loaded as well (at Tampa, Indy and Denver, home against New England, Carolina, Atlanta, and San Diego). If the Bengals are going to repeat, they’re going to have to earn it.
Fantasy Extra: Excessive celebration rule or not, WR Chad Johnson is sensational. But the guy to watch is Houshmandzadeh, who should see single-coverage with 85 on the other side of the field. Palmer led the league in touchdown passes a year ago. Rudi Johnson is a straight-up stud.
Cleveland Browns: When I called the Browns a potential sleeper for this year, I was looking at the potential of young guys like Charlie Frye and Braylon Edwards, plus the probable return of Corporal “Evil Kellen-evil” Winslow. They helped their case with the veteran leadership of Willie McGinest, receiver Joe Jurevicius, and prized free agent center LeCharles Bentley. Then Bentley pulled up lame in mini-camp. Regardless, the Browns are pointed in the right direction. But the ascent out of the North basement will be a slow one.
Fantasy Extra: Frye showed flashes at the end of the year, but you never know with first-time starting quarterbacks. Prior to his injury, Edwards looked like a game-breaker.
Pittsburgh Steelers: What’s not to like about a defending Super Bowl champion that as almost everybody coming back? That doesn’t mean there are no questions surrounding the Steelers. For starters, who replaces Jerome Bettis as the hammer on the goal line? Can Willie Parker replicate his success of a year ago? How serious is Hines Ward’s hamstring injury? Will the Bill Cowher Retirement Watch become a distraction? None of these issues take away from the fact that Pittsburgh is among the NFL’s elite. I’d be shocked if the Steelers didn’t make another deep run into the playoffs this year.
Fantasy Extra: If Parker can avoid wearing down as he did last year, he’s a legitimate number one fantasy back, especially since, minus The Bus, he should get more chances to punch the ball into the end zone.
AFC South
Houston Texans: The Texans took a BIG risk by passing on Reggie Bush in favor of defensive end Mario Williams. Whether or not that gamble pays off remains to be seen. Houston was active in the off-season, adding receiver Eric Moulds and tight end Jeb Putzier to run new coach Gary Kubiak’s offense. But an offensive line that continually allows quarterback David Carr little or no time to throw the ball is the Achilles Heel. Most of their off-season adds were on the defensive side of the ball, but Kubiak is in the midst of a scheme change, moving to the 4-3. The uncertain status on running back Domanick Davis further complicates matters. I don’t see the Texans making a serious run at the post-season. At least, not yet.
Fantasy Extra: If Davis can’t go, either Verrand Morency or Wali Lundy will start at RB. WR Andre Johnson should benefit from Moulds’ presence. That is, if Carr can stay upright.
Indianapolis Colts: For years the experts have wondered if the Colts could finally break through and win a championship. The more things change, the more they stay the same. Indianapolis lost one of its all-pro triplets, with Edgerrin James bolting for Arizona. But the Colts remain deep and talented on offense and will play running back by committee with Dominic Rhodes and rookie Joseph Addai. The defense, long a question mark, is good enough to carry this team far. It seems the only disconnect is between Peyton Manning’s ears. He got a rep in college as a guy who couldn’t win the big one. That rep has followed him to the pros, and until he’s the last man standing, that rep will persist. So, is this the year?
Fantasy Extra: Manning and WR Marvin Harrison are both consistent fantasy performers. The RB situation is up in the air. Indy’s defense is a potential fantasy powerhouse.
Jacksonville Jaguars: One of the most underrated defenses resides in Jacksonville, where head coach Jack Del Rio has put together a fast, aggressive, nasty unit. Del Rio was the architect of the Carolina Panthers defense, and this team has a similar feel. It all starts up front with tackles Marcus Stroud and John Henderson. The Jags defense needs to be good, because their offense is average. There’s a mini-quarterback controversy brewing, as some feel David Garrard should be under center instead of Byron Leftwich. Whoever starts will have a compliment of receivers trying to replace the retired Jimmy Smith. There is some big play potential there with Matt Jones and Reggie Williams. Jacksonville has been close to being very special. They simply need a couple of breaks to take it to the next level.
Fantasy Extra: Fred Taylor has been healthy for a few years now. Does that mean he’s due for a hamstring or groin pull? Ernest Wilford led the team in touchdown catches with 7 last season.
Tennessee Titans: Quite a conundrum in Nashville. The Titans have three quarterbacks and no starter, a bunch of running backs who want out of town or can’t stop spitting on teammates, and a first-round draft pick from a year ago at corner who can’t stay out of the back of police cars. They ran Steve McNair out of town, and there’s pressure for Jeff Fisher to throw Vince Young into a starting role. Young is probably not ready, hence the Kerry Collins signing. Chris Brown was thought to be on the block, but he’s still the starting running back. Adam “Pac Man” Jones has to be labeled a bust to this point in time. The Titans are a mess.
Fantasy Extra: Um, who is their kicker now?
AFC West
Denver Broncos: It was all set up for the Broncos last year. The AFC title game was in their barn. The sixth seeded Steelers were the opponent. And that was the moment Jake Plummer reverted back to his old ways. No wonder Denver tabbed Vanderbilt’s Jay Cutler as their quarterback of the future. Mike Shanahan must believe everything he hears about himself and how good his running system is, thus undrafted rookie Mike Bell starts behind the Snake. Denver won the Javon Walker sweepstakes, and their defense remains largely in tact. Denver’s got high hopes of hosting another AFC championship game, only this time they’re hoping for a better outcome.
Fantasy Extra: Having never played an NFL down, Mike Bell is a question mark. Tatum Bell is not out of the picture yet, either. No word on whether or not the Broncos are interested in signing Raja Bell, Jorge Bell, or Taco Bell.
Kansas City Chiefs: Expectations are high in K.C., not just for the team but for running back Larry Johnson as well. I’ve got to admit, when Johnson came out, I figured him to be the next great Penn State running back bust (Blair Thomas, Ki-Jana Carter, Curtis Enis). But he’s lived up to the hype. New coach Herm Edwards loves to run the football, which would seem to be a perfect fit for Johnson. The line may not be as strong as a year ago without left tackle Willie Roaf, but LJ will still get his. Trent Green is kind of a forgotten man in Kansas City, but he may be the key to the Chiefs playoff chances. The other key factor is the defense, where former head coach and defensive coordinator Gunther Cunningham returns. Bottom Line? LJ is electric, but he alone can’t carry this team into the post-season.
Fantasy Extra: Don’t let anybody fool you into taking Reggie Bush ahead of LJ. Remmember Tony Gonzalez? He’s still there, and will be Green’s go-to guy in the air again.
Oakland Raiders: You thought the Titans had quarterback issues? I did a double-take when I read the bottom line that said Oakland had signed Jeff George. Seriously? Isn’t he, like, 50? I mean, nobody thought Aaron Brooks was the answer. But they’ve got Andrew Walter, who Randy Moss seems to like. Why not go with him? LaMont Jordan will be facing nine and ten-man fronts. Oakland’s defense is a disaster. Warren Sapp is on the downside of his career, and Derrick Burgess likely won’t lead the league in sacks again. I hope Brady Quinn looks good in black, because the Raiders have the inside track on the first pick next April.
Fantasy Extra: If Walter plays, I like Moss. If not, avoid this team like the plague.
San Diego Chargers: The Chargers turn over a new leaf (sorry, poor choice of words) as the Philip Rivers era gets underway. Lucky for Rivers, he’s got perhaps the best all-around running back in LaDanian Tomlinson behind him. He’s also got a top tight end in Antonio Gates. Another break for Rivers? The Chargers open with Oakland and Tennessee before their bye in Week 3, meaning he should be able to ease into his new job. San Diego returns defensive rookie of the year Shawne Merriman as the playmaker in a 3-4 that was tops against the run in 2005. The Chargers are thinking playoffs, and I might be, too.
Fantasy Extra: If you don’t like Tomlinson’s game, you’ve got issues. I really like Rivers as a second QB. Watch for him to build a rapport with WR Eric Parker, who could be a gem.
Friday, August 18, 2006
"Super" Eagles?
Clearly, some people just can’t win with the media.
Feel free to add Donovan McNabb to the list.
McNabb indicated in a press conference earlier this week that he thinks his team is of Super Bowl caliber, and that they can turn last year’s 6-10 record into 13-3 or even 14-2 this year.
The pundits overwhelmingly disagree with McNabb’s assessment of the Eagles. The national media has lambasted McNabb for the perceived absurdity of his comments. Around the Horn’s Woody Paige called it “idiocy.”
The detractors, and there are many, are quick to point out that the Eagles play in the best division in the NFL, that NFC East foes Dallas, New York, and Washington are all superior, that their out of division schedule is brutal down the stretch this season, and that the Eagles lack game-breaking talent at wide receiver and running back.
While all of these arguments are subject to debate (and debate them I will), what shouldn’t be questioned is the fact that McNabb is the leader of the Eagles. His comments reflect a belief in himself, his teammates, and his coaches. It’s the kind of statement that a leader should be commended for making.
But the hypocrites in the media, who have questioned McNabb’s leadership abilities on numerous occasions in the past, obviously can’t see the forest through the trees.
Let’s say Tom Brady came out and said he thought the Patriots were a Super Bowl team despite the fact that the AFC is loaded, Corey Dillon is old, Deion Branch is holding out, and Adam Vinatieri is a Colt. Would the media blast him for his “idiocy?” Of course not. He’s Tom Brady. He’s just trying to rally the troops.
On the flip side, what if McNabb was asked about his team’s chances and responded with something milk-toast like “we’ve got some question marks at a few positions right now, and we play in a tough division, so hopefully we can go 8-8.” What kind of response would that illicit from the guys in his locker room? How would the fans react? The media would absolutely devour him…
Because some people just can’t win with the media.
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They say everyone is entitled to his opinion, and I don’t disagree. However, when that opinion is based on untruths, I feel the need to argue. That said, here are some reasons I’ve heard people say the Eagles have no chance this season, and my rebuttal (and if you think I giggled when I typed ‘rebuttal,’ you know me all too well):
The NFC East is stacked – No real debate there, except that the Cowboys, Giants, and Redskins all have questions of their own. It sounds as though the Giants have grown tired of Drill Sergeant Coughlin, and Eli Manning is still a work in progress. Washington’s Clinton Portis injured his shoulder in a pre-season game and they aren’t sure when he’ll be 100%. The ‘Skins are a totally different team with a healthy Portis as opposed to without. As for the Cowboys, Parcells and TOFU already appear to be at odds (and year one of TOFU is supposed to be the good year). As I see it, the division is wide open.
The Eagles don’t have a number one wide receiver – Right, but they have a group of guys that can make plays. Reggie Brown set franchise rookie records for receiving yards and touchdowns last season. Hank Baskett, the anti-TOFU, will likely start and has been nothing short of sensational so far in camp and the pre-season. Jabar Gaffney is coming around. Tight end L.J. Smith has Pro Bowl written all over him. Other than 2004, the Eagles offense has been predicated on creating mismatches and spreading the ball around. This group, including running back Brian Westbrook, allows them to do that. Speaking of…
Brian Westbrook can’t stay healthy – No, he hasn’t played a full season yet. That’s not to say he can’t. In the twelve games he played last year, he amassed better than 100 yards rushing + receiving per game and scored seven touchdowns. I’ll take that kind of production.
You need #1 talent at the skill positions to win a Super Bowl – Obviously, the more talent you have, the better. But you win in the NFL by dominating the line of scrimmage, and the Eagles are vastly improved along both lines. The O-Line is massive, and the D-Line is so deep at end and tackle. Pressure the quarterback and protect your own, which the Eagles should be able to do.
The late-season schedule is brutal – It certainly appears that way on paper right now. But things can change. Right now, nobody can really be sure how good these teams are. I also think the fact that the Eagles play an easier early-season schedule (featuring Houston, San Francisco, Green Bay, and New Orleans) will help them build momentum heading into games with Indianapolis, Carolina, and Jacksonville.
So, maybe McNabb has a point. He believes. I Believe. And most importantly, the guys in the locker room (a locker room that was, by all accounts, divided a season ago) believe. If you believe, tell me why at nfl_ant@hotmail.com.
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We’re a little over a week away from the Fantasy Football draft, and I’ve been in full preparation mode. I envisioned doing a top five by position prior to said draft, but these things take time. Plus, I don’t want to tip off any of the vultures in my league. I select eighth this year (in a twelve-team league), which means I’ll pick three times in the first 32. I’m predicting big things this year for Bonzi’s Pecans.
I guess I should probably explain the name – “Bonzi.” Was the nickname of the head nurse (hee hee) at a previous employer (her real name was Dea Wells). Therefore, Bonzi’s Pecans translates to…
Dea’s nuts.
Feel free to add Donovan McNabb to the list.
McNabb indicated in a press conference earlier this week that he thinks his team is of Super Bowl caliber, and that they can turn last year’s 6-10 record into 13-3 or even 14-2 this year.
The pundits overwhelmingly disagree with McNabb’s assessment of the Eagles. The national media has lambasted McNabb for the perceived absurdity of his comments. Around the Horn’s Woody Paige called it “idiocy.”
The detractors, and there are many, are quick to point out that the Eagles play in the best division in the NFL, that NFC East foes Dallas, New York, and Washington are all superior, that their out of division schedule is brutal down the stretch this season, and that the Eagles lack game-breaking talent at wide receiver and running back.
While all of these arguments are subject to debate (and debate them I will), what shouldn’t be questioned is the fact that McNabb is the leader of the Eagles. His comments reflect a belief in himself, his teammates, and his coaches. It’s the kind of statement that a leader should be commended for making.
But the hypocrites in the media, who have questioned McNabb’s leadership abilities on numerous occasions in the past, obviously can’t see the forest through the trees.
Let’s say Tom Brady came out and said he thought the Patriots were a Super Bowl team despite the fact that the AFC is loaded, Corey Dillon is old, Deion Branch is holding out, and Adam Vinatieri is a Colt. Would the media blast him for his “idiocy?” Of course not. He’s Tom Brady. He’s just trying to rally the troops.
On the flip side, what if McNabb was asked about his team’s chances and responded with something milk-toast like “we’ve got some question marks at a few positions right now, and we play in a tough division, so hopefully we can go 8-8.” What kind of response would that illicit from the guys in his locker room? How would the fans react? The media would absolutely devour him…
Because some people just can’t win with the media.
----------------------------------------------------------------
They say everyone is entitled to his opinion, and I don’t disagree. However, when that opinion is based on untruths, I feel the need to argue. That said, here are some reasons I’ve heard people say the Eagles have no chance this season, and my rebuttal (and if you think I giggled when I typed ‘rebuttal,’ you know me all too well):
The NFC East is stacked – No real debate there, except that the Cowboys, Giants, and Redskins all have questions of their own. It sounds as though the Giants have grown tired of Drill Sergeant Coughlin, and Eli Manning is still a work in progress. Washington’s Clinton Portis injured his shoulder in a pre-season game and they aren’t sure when he’ll be 100%. The ‘Skins are a totally different team with a healthy Portis as opposed to without. As for the Cowboys, Parcells and TOFU already appear to be at odds (and year one of TOFU is supposed to be the good year). As I see it, the division is wide open.
The Eagles don’t have a number one wide receiver – Right, but they have a group of guys that can make plays. Reggie Brown set franchise rookie records for receiving yards and touchdowns last season. Hank Baskett, the anti-TOFU, will likely start and has been nothing short of sensational so far in camp and the pre-season. Jabar Gaffney is coming around. Tight end L.J. Smith has Pro Bowl written all over him. Other than 2004, the Eagles offense has been predicated on creating mismatches and spreading the ball around. This group, including running back Brian Westbrook, allows them to do that. Speaking of…
Brian Westbrook can’t stay healthy – No, he hasn’t played a full season yet. That’s not to say he can’t. In the twelve games he played last year, he amassed better than 100 yards rushing + receiving per game and scored seven touchdowns. I’ll take that kind of production.
You need #1 talent at the skill positions to win a Super Bowl – Obviously, the more talent you have, the better. But you win in the NFL by dominating the line of scrimmage, and the Eagles are vastly improved along both lines. The O-Line is massive, and the D-Line is so deep at end and tackle. Pressure the quarterback and protect your own, which the Eagles should be able to do.
The late-season schedule is brutal – It certainly appears that way on paper right now. But things can change. Right now, nobody can really be sure how good these teams are. I also think the fact that the Eagles play an easier early-season schedule (featuring Houston, San Francisco, Green Bay, and New Orleans) will help them build momentum heading into games with Indianapolis, Carolina, and Jacksonville.
So, maybe McNabb has a point. He believes. I Believe. And most importantly, the guys in the locker room (a locker room that was, by all accounts, divided a season ago) believe. If you believe, tell me why at nfl_ant@hotmail.com.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
We’re a little over a week away from the Fantasy Football draft, and I’ve been in full preparation mode. I envisioned doing a top five by position prior to said draft, but these things take time. Plus, I don’t want to tip off any of the vultures in my league. I select eighth this year (in a twelve-team league), which means I’ll pick three times in the first 32. I’m predicting big things this year for Bonzi’s Pecans.
I guess I should probably explain the name – “Bonzi.” Was the nickname of the head nurse (hee hee) at a previous employer (her real name was Dea Wells). Therefore, Bonzi’s Pecans translates to…
Dea’s nuts.
Saturday, May 27, 2006
Mail Call!
You asked for it, so here it is. It's your chance to sound off. Your questions/comments/snide remarks can now be directed to my mailbag at nfl_ant@hotmail.com. Disagree with one of my "Expert" picks (very likely)? Want to commend me on an upset I predicted that nobody else had the stones to pick (not as likely)? Need another opinion on a fantasy football trade? Either way, now you can hit me up and maybe find yourself in a future post. I envision mixing in a few e-mails each week, or maybe publishing an entire post of your e-mails (a la ESPN's Bill Simmons). Now it's your web site, too!
As for the off-season, it's been pretty slow, especially since I haven't had Flyers playoff hockey to occupy my time. At least the Fightin' Phils have played some good ball. But the bottom line is, it's Memorial Day weekend, which means that summer is officially here. Training camps and exhibition games will be here soon, and it's never too early to start looking ahead to the upcoming seasons, both real and fantasy.
Speaking of which, every summer I go on a trip or two which invariably become fantasy football planning sessions. Two years ago, I spent a long weekend on the outer banks of North Carolina and gambled my troubles away in Vegas for four days. In fact, I named my team "Try My Nuts," as an homage to a restaurant we saw at the beach. As luck would have it, I won the championship (and some $$$) that season. Last year, a business trip landed me in Fort Lauderdale, followed by a snake-bitten season and a last-place finish for "No Soup For You." No soup for me, apparently.
This year's planning began a couple of weekends ago in Ocean Isle Beach, North Carolina and will continue in July on Long Beach Island, New Jersey. I've already started compiling the Big Board, and once our league commissioner establishes the rules (including expansion, a pared-down roster, and a new head-to-head format), I'll start to strategize about the draft. However, I have yet to settle on a team name...
See where I'm going with this?
You got it. To usher in the new mail address, I'm soliciting suggestions for my team name this year. Shoot me an e-mail at nfl_ant@hotmail.com with your name, city, and your idea. I'll select my favorite, and that will be the name for this season.
A couple of things you should know: 1) our league was formerly known as the CTC, short for 'Camel Toe Coalition,' so you're not going to shock anyone with obscenity or vulgarity; 2) this isn't a crappy reality TV program, so the names will not be open to a vote. I am judge and jury; 3) this isn't like a stadium-naming deal, where you pay me to advertise for you. It's free, so enter as many times as you'd like; 4) on the flip side, there is no prize coming to you if your suggestion wins.
There you go. For this season, I've upped my standards. So up yours!
As for the off-season, it's been pretty slow, especially since I haven't had Flyers playoff hockey to occupy my time. At least the Fightin' Phils have played some good ball. But the bottom line is, it's Memorial Day weekend, which means that summer is officially here. Training camps and exhibition games will be here soon, and it's never too early to start looking ahead to the upcoming seasons, both real and fantasy.
Speaking of which, every summer I go on a trip or two which invariably become fantasy football planning sessions. Two years ago, I spent a long weekend on the outer banks of North Carolina and gambled my troubles away in Vegas for four days. In fact, I named my team "Try My Nuts," as an homage to a restaurant we saw at the beach. As luck would have it, I won the championship (and some $$$) that season. Last year, a business trip landed me in Fort Lauderdale, followed by a snake-bitten season and a last-place finish for "No Soup For You." No soup for me, apparently.
This year's planning began a couple of weekends ago in Ocean Isle Beach, North Carolina and will continue in July on Long Beach Island, New Jersey. I've already started compiling the Big Board, and once our league commissioner establishes the rules (including expansion, a pared-down roster, and a new head-to-head format), I'll start to strategize about the draft. However, I have yet to settle on a team name...
See where I'm going with this?
You got it. To usher in the new mail address, I'm soliciting suggestions for my team name this year. Shoot me an e-mail at nfl_ant@hotmail.com with your name, city, and your idea. I'll select my favorite, and that will be the name for this season.
A couple of things you should know: 1) our league was formerly known as the CTC, short for 'Camel Toe Coalition,' so you're not going to shock anyone with obscenity or vulgarity; 2) this isn't a crappy reality TV program, so the names will not be open to a vote. I am judge and jury; 3) this isn't like a stadium-naming deal, where you pay me to advertise for you. It's free, so enter as many times as you'd like; 4) on the flip side, there is no prize coming to you if your suggestion wins.
There you go. For this season, I've upped my standards. So up yours!
Friday, April 14, 2006
Off-season Tidbits & Ant's First Ever Mock Draft
Yes, the NFL is still in the midst of its long, painful off-season, but that doesn’t mean things haven’t been happening. In fact, as sabbaticals go, this one has witnessed some major happenings in the league, including:
a) A new collective bargaining agreement – Other sports have set themselves back with player strikes and/or owner’s lockouts during labor strife. The NFL launched a pre-emptive effort to avoid such a catastrophe (and fall Sundays with no football would constitute a catastrophe).
b) The resignation of Paul Tagliabue – With the labor situation settled, the commissioner opted to walk away, leaving the game in good shape for the foreseeable future.
c) Player movement – Some big names have relocated, some via trade and some seeking greener pastures via free agency. Daunte Culpepper was dealt to the Dolphins (when he’ll play is still in question as he continues to rehabilitate his shredded knee), Drew Brees signed with the Saints, ending the illustrious Aaron Brooks era in New Orleans. Brooks will attempt replace Kerry Collins as the Raiders starter. The Redskins and Browns have been very active in free agency, with the ‘Skins inking receivers Antwaan Randle El (PIT) and Brandon Lloyd (SF), safety Adam Archuletta (STL), tight end Christian Fauria (NE) and linebacker Andre Carter (SF). Cleveland has added center LeCharles Bentley (NO), receiver Joe Jurevicius (SEA), and linebacker Willie McGinest (NE). The Colts let enigmatic kicker Mike Vanderjagt sign with the Cowboys, and upgraded by bringing in Adam Vinatieri, whom the Patriots chose not to re-sign (for reasons unbeknownst to anyone, really).
d) T.O. signs with the Cowboys – In theory, I could have lumped this in with the previous category, but it really deserves special consideration. Could there be a more perfect union than this? Now when God looks down on the toilet that is Texas Stadium, he’ll see a giant piece of crap in the middle of it. With any luck, T.O. will do what T.O. does and the Cowboys will suffer merely from his presence. With even more luck, he’ll go across the middle against the Eagles and Brian Dawkins will just absolutely crush him.
e) New coaches – This wasn’t the normal off-season in terms of coaching changes. Usually, teams will recycle the same old crummy coaches that have been dismissed by another team. Sure, a couple of guys have previous head coaching experience. Herman Edwards left the Jets for Kansas City, and the Raiders re-hired Art Shell (where has he been?). But this year, there are a handful of first-time NFL coaches, including Brad Childress (Vikings), Gary Kubiak (Texans), Rod Marinelli (Lions), Mike McCarthy (Packers), and Sean Payton (Saints).
f) No more touchdown celebrations – I, for one, have yet to make up my mind on this one. I love the guys who score a touchdown, act like they’ve been there before and just hand the ball to the referee (a la Barry Sanders). But the guys who choreograph their celebrations, use props, jump in the crowd and things like that are entertaining, too. They say that these types of actions show up the other team, and maybe they do. But if you’re a corner who just got burned by Chad Johnson or Steve Smith, you shouldn’t be offended by them dancing and carrying on. You should be pissed at yourself for letting them score. Next time, keep your man out of the end zone so they have nothing to celebrate. Just my opinion.
g) The scouting combine – Basically, the combine is five days loaded with tests of speed, strength, and intelligence that can either help or hurt your stock in terms of the draft. The most notable development from the combine had to be Texas quarterback Vince Young scoring a 6 (out of 50) on the Wonderlick test. He actually claims to have scored a 16, which sounds more like it (since he could probably score a 6 by simply spelling ‘Vince Young’ correctly). Personally, I think the Wonderlick scores are irrelevant. Why? Take for example two quarterbacks whose names you know with distinctly different NFL careers. One scored a 29, the other a 16. The guy with the 16? Dan Marino. The 29? Ryan Leaf. I rest my case.
All of the aforementioned off-season activity is merely an appetizer, leading to the main course and one of my favorite occurrences of the spring – the NFL draft. I am one of the junkies who will actually sit and watch the draft. I love the draft for many reasons, but maybe the most of which is watching Mel Kiper Jr. scramble to re-write his big board of top prospects as they all get picked out of order. Every time I watch Mel Kiper, two thoughts invariably creep into my mind: a) other than your local meteorologist, is anyone wrong more often than Mel Kiper?, and b) how in the world did he get his job, and why can’t I get a gig like that?
Inspired by Kiper, I have decided to publish my first ever Mock Draft this year, simply because, much like I like to see how I stack up to the other “experts” when it comes to picking games, I’d love to see how I do versus ESPN’s draft guru. Without further ado, I present to you Ant’s First Ever Mock Draft.
1. Houston Texans: Reggie Bush, RB (USC) – The Texans opting to pay David Carr an $8 million roster bonus was a pretty good indication that they’re going to take Bush, who appears to be a can’t-miss prospect. He’s quick, explosive, and versatile, maybe more dangerous as a receiver out of the backfield than he is as a runner. Houston could trade the pick and shore up the offensive line, but they’ll have to be overwhelmed with a trade offer to move down, and I don’t see that happening.
2. New Orleans Saints: Mario Williams, DE (NC State) – Even though he’s probably not a long-term solution, the Brees signing means one of two things for the Saints. They’ll either trade down, or take Williams, who has been compared favorably to Carolina’s Julius Peppers.
3. Tennessee Titans: Matt Leinart, QB (USC) – Quarterback is an obvious choice for Tennessee, and with all three top quarterbacks still available, the Titans will most likely take Leinart. Not only does he project well at the next level, but he could be reunited with Norm Chow, Tennessee’s offensive coordinator who coached him at USC.
4. New York Jets: D’Brickashaw Ferguson, OT (Virginia) – The Jets have many options, including trading up or staying put and selecting a quarterback. My guess is that they’ll take Ferguson to anchor the left side of the line and protect Chad Pennington’s blind side.
5. Green Bay Packers: A.J. Hawk, LB (Ohio State) – This should be something of a no-brainer, however the Packers have had holes on the defense for years that have not been addressed in the draft. Hawk, however, is too good to pass up. He’s got the speed to go sideline to sideline and the toughness to stuff the run.
6. San Francisco 49ers: Haloti Ngata, DT (Oregon) – 49ers head coach Mike Nolan was a defensive coach with the Ravens, so he witnessed first-hand how a good defense can carry you to a championship. I look at Nolan to re-build San Francisco’s defense from the line back, and Oregon’s Ngata is a beast in the middle.
7. Oakland Raiders: Vince Young, QB (Texas) – Young may not be NFL-ready yet, but he’s got tremendous upside. Think Ron Mexico, only bigger, quicker, and with a stronger arm. But don’t expect Young to come in and start right away. He’ll have some mechanics in his throwing motion to work out, but once he does that, look out. Just as a joke, he should wear # 6.
8.Buffalo Bills: Michael Huff, S (Texas) – The Bills will be thrilled to find Huff still on the board at #8, even if Ngata is the guy they really want. Huff is one the high-risers in the draft because of his versatility. He’s big, fast, and a great tackler, which means he’ll be a cornerback-safety hybrid along the lines of Dallas’ Roy Williams.
9. Detroit Lions: Jimmy Williams, CB (Virginia Tech) – Even Matt Millen wouldn’t be stupid enough to take an offensive player this year, would he? Plain and simple. The Lions need defense, specifically in the secondary. Huff may be the most versatile player, but Williams is clearly the best cover corner, and he can return kicks and punts, making him a great pick for Detroit.
10. Arizona Cardinals: Jay Cutler, QB (Vanderbilt) – Arizona could go any number of ways here. They could look at a tight end like Maryland’s Vernon Davis or help along the offensive line in USC’s Winston Justice. But Dennis Green likes quarterbacks, and he’ll love Jay Cutler. The Vanderbilt prospect has a strong, accurate arm and will be groomed as Kurt Warner’s successor.
11. St. Louis Rams: Vernon Davis, TE (Maryland) – Thanks to guys like Tony Gonzalez and Antonio Gates, the tight end position matters again, and Davis is the best tight end in the draft. The Rams have always thought offense first, and tight end is the biggest offensive need for St. Louis. If Davis is still available, the Rams will scoop him up.
12. Cleveland Browns: Tamba Hali, DE (Penn State) – If you’ve read this post regularly, you know that I’ve already tabbed the Browns as my sleeper team for next year. I see the Browns addressing a need either at linebacker or on the D-line. Hopefully for them, Hali will work out better than the last first brown defensive lineman they drafted from Penn State (Courtney Brown, 2000).
13. Baltimore Ravens: Broderick Bunkley, DT (Florida State) – Bunkley is another of the fast risers, and while not as big as Ngata, he might be a better fit for a team like Baltimore. In fact, some people have him rated higher. The Ravens would love to add a talent like Bunkley to an already stout defense.
14. Philadelphia Eagles: Chad Jackson, WR (Florida) – The good news? T.O. is gone. The bad news? The Eagles have done nothing to address the tremendous void they now have at wide receiver. Unless a Javon Walker trade is in the offing, look for the Eagles to go with Jackson, the best wide receiver in the draft. Though only 6’1”, he’s got a great vertical leap and blazing speed, and will pair with Reggie Brown as the Eagles’ receiving tandem for the next 7-8 years.
15. Denver Broncos: Santonio Holmes, WR (Ohio State) – Denver has two first round picks, so a trade up is a distinct possibility. Or, since they lost out on the T.O. sweepstakes, the Broncos could stand pat and draft a receiver. I can’t predict trades, so I have to assume that they’ll stay put and that Jackson will be gone. All that being said, they will take Holmes.
16. Miami Dolphins: Winston Justice, OT (USC) – Justice figures to be the second bookend tackle to be taken in this draft, and it wouldn’t surprise me if someone moved up to get him. Again, I don’t have the crystal ball in terms of trades, so we’ll leave Justice here as Daunte Culpepper’s new best friend.
17. Minnesota Vikings: DeAngelo Williams, RB (Memphis) – Take a look at the Vikings’ depth chart at running back and you’ll see Mewelde Moore, Chester Taylor, and Ciatrick Fason. Yikes. Minnesota should definitely be thinking running back, and Williams rates as #2 behind Bush. The question remains, will they need to make a move up to get him? Either way, Williams is their man.
18. Dallas Cowboys: Ernie Sims, LB (Florida State) – Prior to the T.O. signing, Dallas had to be thinking wide receiver. With that position all settled (for now), Bill Parcells can continue to re-build his 3-4 defense. Dallas cut La’roi Glover, so a defensive tackle is a possibility, as is a safety to pair with Roy Williams. But I think they’ll go linebacker with Sims, whose idol is former Seminole great Derrick Brooks.
19. San Diego Chargers: Tye Hill, CB (Clemson) – The Philip Rivers era begins this year for the Chargers, and he’ll be OK with LaDanian Tomlinson behind him and Antonio Gates at the end of the line. But there are holes at receiver, on the O-line, and in the secondary. With Jackson, Holmes, and Justice off the board, I feel the Chargers will look at a cornerback. Ergo, Tye Hill.
20. Kansas City Chiefs: Donte Whitner, S (Ohio State) – Whitner is on a lot of teams’ wish list, so there is a chance that he won’t be available for the Chiefs. But if he’s there, they’ll grab him in about three seconds.
21. New England Patriots: Chad Greenway, LB (Iowa) – Assuming they don’t draft a kicker to replace Adam Vinatieri (and let’s face it, only Armando Cuko is that clutch, and he’s not NFL-eligible yet), the Patriots will look at the defensive side of the ball, maybe to find the next Willie McGinest. Greenway might not be McGinest, but he is the kind of versatile linebacker that Bill Belichick loves.
22. Denver Broncos: Laurence Maroney, RB (Minnesota) – With their second pick of the first round, would it surprise anyone if the Broncos took a running back? Denver loves running backs. Mike Shanahan loves running backs. Their line and their system churn out 1,000-yard backs like they’re coming off an assembly line. I was thinking about USC’s LenDale White here, but he’s tacked on a few pounds and has slipped. Besides, he’s being referred to as this year’s Maurice Clarett, a colossal bust drafted a year ago by…the Denver Broncos. They won’t make the same mistake twice.
23. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Sinorice Moss, WR (Miami) – The Bucs struck gold last year with Carnell “Cadillac” Williams, and they’re hoping to uncover another weapon on that offense. Like his brother Santana, Moss is a threat to score every time he touches the ball, and Tampa would love to have him as Chris Simms’ go-to guy.
24. Cincinnati Bengals: Marcedes Lewis, TE (UCLA) – You’ll have to forgive the Bengals, as they’re not used to drafting this late in the first round. Cincinnati is pretty set on offense except at tight end, and Lewis is a big target with great hands. Besides, all the Pac-10 guys go to Cincinnati – Carson Palmer (USC), Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh (Oregon State). Lewis will be the next left coaster in Marvin Lewis’ stable.
25. New York Giants: Bobby Carpenter, LB (Ohio State) – The surprise winner of the NFC East last season has needs across the defense, but specifically at linebacker. Carpenter was hurt at the end of the season, even missing the Fiesta Bowl. But he’s healthy now, had a great scouting combine, and would probably start from day one with big blue.
26. Chicago Bears: Leonard Pope, TE (Georgia) – On the strength of their defense, the Bears won the NFC North a year ago, and could have done more if they had some pass catchers on offense. Tight End is an obvious need, and after all the other dominos fall, Pope will march into Soldier Field.
27. Carolina Panthers: LenDale White, RB (USC) – Torn hamstring or not, White has fallen from a potential top-ten pick to a second-rounder in some people’s estimation. Not mine, however. White broke records at USC, a school famous for running backs (and alleged double-murderers). White will replace Stephen Davis as the big back in Carolina’s offense, and could carry the load if (or more appropriately when) DeShaun Foster gets hurt.
28. Jacksonville Jaguars: Antonio Cromartie, CB (Florida State) – The fact that Cromartie didn’t play a down last year but still projects as a first round draft pick is a testament to his talent and athletic ability. Jacksonville could use him in the secondary and as a return man on special teams.
29. New York Jets: Mathias Kiwanuka, DE (Boston College) – If the Jets keep this pick (they may need to package it to move up from the #4 spot), they have to find a replacement for John Abraham, who went to Atlanta. Kiwanuka is a pass rush specialist who could eventually fill the void left by Abraham’s departure.
30. Indianapolis Colts: Jonathan Joseph, CB (South Carolina) – The Colts could be hoping that LenDale White falls this far and snatch him to replace Edgerrin James. Or, they could make a move up to try and grab a back. If they stay put, its likely they will draft defense, at which time Joseph, while not of ideal size, would be the best talent available.
31. Seattle Seahawks: Kamerion Wimbley, DE (Florida State) – Seattle re-signed Shaun Alexander and has Matt Hasselbeck locked up for a couple more years, but lost all-pro Steve Hutchinson in free agency. But this late in the first round, the top tackles will be long gone, so defensive end is the way to go. Wimbley is a late bloomer, whose stock has risen dramatically of late.
32. Pittsburgh Steelers: Nick Mangold, C (Ohio State) – The Super Bowl champs finish out the first round with a prototypical Steeler. Mangold was a starter for three years at Ohio State and is big (6’3”, 300 lbs), tough and durable. He’ll be the second coming of Mike Webster in the ‘burgh.
So, there you have it. And no, I will not be publishing Mock Draft Version 2.0 or anything beyond that like some of these guys do. Instead, I’ll watch the draft as always, and probably write up a little something on the draft’s winners and losers (which is almost impossible to do, since it takes a couple of years before a draft class can really be evaluated). Then will come preparations for another important day – the Fantasy Football draft. I’m also planning further additions to the site, including a mailbag where you can fire questions, comments, and other snide remarks. In the interim, enjoy the off-season.
Wednesday, January 25, 2006
How to Fix the Eagles
The Eagles are running a feature on their website (www.philadelphiaeagles.com) called "You Be The GM," whereby Eagles fans can e-mail what they would do to return the Birds to prominence. Since I honestly feel sometimes that I missed my true calling and should be running a sports franchise, I took the time to lay out my restructuring plan. Here is a transcript, and should the website respond or print my plan, I'll be sure to inform you...
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Despite missing the playoffs for the first time since 1999 (and contrary to the opinion of some media outlets), I don't think the window of opportunity for the Eagles to win a Super Bowl has passed. I personally think the Eagles can add a few players at key positions and re-emerge as the NFC's elite team. If I was calling the shots, here's what I would do:
1) Address the wide receiver position via free agency - While the biggest name currently available is Reggie Wayne, I'm not sold on him being a #1. Remember when Atlanta overpaid for Peerless Price? Same kind of situation. Assuming Buffalo cuts Eric Moulds, I'd bring him in. He doesn't possess the size or speed of a Terrell Owens, but he's a solid NFL receiver. Prior to Reggie Brown, the Eagles haven't had much luck drafting receivers, and this draft is not exactly stacked with talent at the position anyway.
2) Do not overpay for John Abraham or Julian Peterson - Both are good NFL players who would likely be upgrades at their respective positions. Both, however, would also come with pretty high price tags. If only one of the two is in the mix, it should probably be Peterson. The Eagles need the most help at outside linebacker, and Peterson would be a good coverage guy to stay with the good tight ends (Witten, Shockey, Cooley) in the NFC East.
3) Draft for Defense and Depth - The Eagles top two positions of need are on the defensive side of the ball - outside linebacker and defensive tackle. The best players at those positions (Ohio State's A.J. Hawk and Oregon's Haloti Ngata) will likely not be available to the Eagles at #14. The name thrown around in most of the mock drafts is OLB Chad Greenway out of Iowa. I like Greenway, but if they were to sign Peterson I'd be alright with them trading down and taking a tackle like Miami's Orien Harris late in the first round. Outside of the first round, depth should be addressed at the following positions:
a. Defensive End - Trent Cole and Jevon Kearse are good as starters, but what's behind them? Can you count on Jerome McDougle and/or N.D. Kalu?
b. Offensive Line - Jon Runyan will likely be gone, so they either need to draft a tackle or two or Shawn Andrews needs to move from guard to tackle and they draft a couple of guards.
c. Tight End - L.J. Smith is a good pass-catching tight end, but they could use more of a run-blocking guy.
d. Running Back - The Eagles need a big, bruising back for short yardage and goal line situations.
4) Bring in a competent back-up quarterback - As we all witnessed this past season, neither Mike McMahon nor Koy Detmer is capable of being a productive starter for an extended period of time. There has to be someone available that, should the worst case scenario occur again and the Eagles are forced to play without Donovan McNabb, can come in and manage the offense effectively.
These moves should not only address their most glaring issues, but would still leave them some salary cap flexibility for future needs or emergency situations that might arise. The bottom line is that the Eagles are still in decent shape to make a run at the Super Bowl.
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Despite missing the playoffs for the first time since 1999 (and contrary to the opinion of some media outlets), I don't think the window of opportunity for the Eagles to win a Super Bowl has passed. I personally think the Eagles can add a few players at key positions and re-emerge as the NFC's elite team. If I was calling the shots, here's what I would do:
1) Address the wide receiver position via free agency - While the biggest name currently available is Reggie Wayne, I'm not sold on him being a #1. Remember when Atlanta overpaid for Peerless Price? Same kind of situation. Assuming Buffalo cuts Eric Moulds, I'd bring him in. He doesn't possess the size or speed of a Terrell Owens, but he's a solid NFL receiver. Prior to Reggie Brown, the Eagles haven't had much luck drafting receivers, and this draft is not exactly stacked with talent at the position anyway.
2) Do not overpay for John Abraham or Julian Peterson - Both are good NFL players who would likely be upgrades at their respective positions. Both, however, would also come with pretty high price tags. If only one of the two is in the mix, it should probably be Peterson. The Eagles need the most help at outside linebacker, and Peterson would be a good coverage guy to stay with the good tight ends (Witten, Shockey, Cooley) in the NFC East.
3) Draft for Defense and Depth - The Eagles top two positions of need are on the defensive side of the ball - outside linebacker and defensive tackle. The best players at those positions (Ohio State's A.J. Hawk and Oregon's Haloti Ngata) will likely not be available to the Eagles at #14. The name thrown around in most of the mock drafts is OLB Chad Greenway out of Iowa. I like Greenway, but if they were to sign Peterson I'd be alright with them trading down and taking a tackle like Miami's Orien Harris late in the first round. Outside of the first round, depth should be addressed at the following positions:
a. Defensive End - Trent Cole and Jevon Kearse are good as starters, but what's behind them? Can you count on Jerome McDougle and/or N.D. Kalu?
b. Offensive Line - Jon Runyan will likely be gone, so they either need to draft a tackle or two or Shawn Andrews needs to move from guard to tackle and they draft a couple of guards.
c. Tight End - L.J. Smith is a good pass-catching tight end, but they could use more of a run-blocking guy.
d. Running Back - The Eagles need a big, bruising back for short yardage and goal line situations.
4) Bring in a competent back-up quarterback - As we all witnessed this past season, neither Mike McMahon nor Koy Detmer is capable of being a productive starter for an extended period of time. There has to be someone available that, should the worst case scenario occur again and the Eagles are forced to play without Donovan McNabb, can come in and manage the offense effectively.
These moves should not only address their most glaring issues, but would still leave them some salary cap flexibility for future needs or emergency situations that might arise. The bottom line is that the Eagles are still in decent shape to make a run at the Super Bowl.
Thursday, January 05, 2006
The Season Preview Review
“Let’s take a look back. They always say in life ‘don’t look back’. F--- that!” – Dave Chappelle
Yes, it’s the first annual “Season Preview Review,” and what an interesting season it was. There were surprises and major disappointments, of which we’ll speak of a little later. But in the interest of full disclosure, I want to let you know how I stacked up this year.
By my own estimation, I had an average year, posting records of 171-85 (.668) straight up and 134-111-11 (.547) against the spread. Both of those marks are up slightly from the 2004-05 campaign. As for the pre-season predictions, not so good. I only named four of the twelve playoff teams and completely whiffed on my rookies of the year (which Tampa’s Carnell Williams and San Diego’s Shawne Merriman absolutely deserved). A few award winners have yet to be named, so I offer you my thoughts…
Most Valuable Player: Tiki Barber, New York Giants – There are plenty of worthy candidates (Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Carson Palmer, Shaun Alexander), but Barber gets my vote. Three times he ran for over 200 yards (all Giants wins), led the NFL in yards from scrimmage, and gave the Giants offense the balance that carried them to an 11-5 record and an NFC East crown.
Offensive Player of the Year: Shaun Alexander, Seattle Seahawks – Let’s see, he won the rushing title that eluded him by a yard last season, and broke the single-season touchdown record, finding the end zone 28 times for the 13-3 Seahawks.
Defensive Player of the Year: Brian Urlacher, Chicago Bears – The numbers are impressive – 122 tackles, six sacks – but far from the best in the league. So why did I go with Urlacher? Because he’s the unquestioned leader of a defense that literally carried the Bears to the #2 seed, despite an offense that outscored only Detroit, New Orleans, and San Francisco in the NFC.
Coach of the Year: Tony Dungy, Indianapolis Colts – Do I really need to explain? The Colts went 14-2, and proved that they can win under any circumstances. That’s the trademark of a good coach. For the record, I think Bill Belichick deserves some mention here as well. The Patriots surprised nobody by winning the AFC East, but the Pats had to deal with the loss of their offensive and defensive coordinators and a rash of major injuries. They were able to hold it together, and now the Pats look like that team that no one wants to see in the post-season.
Speaking of coaches, it was a bad week for guys named Mike. Mike Martz? Fired by the St. Louis Rams. Mike Tice? Dismissed as Vikings head coach. Mike Sherman? Out as coach of the Packers (which could in turn lead to the retirement of Brett Favre, who said if Sherman was fired, he’d quit). No word on whether or not Buffalo’s Mike Mularkey or Denver’s Mike Shanahan have put their houses on the market. Other coaching vacancies reside in Oakland (Norv Turner), New Orleans (Jim Haslett), and Kansas City (Dick Vermeil).
Coaches weren’t the only disappointment this year, as some players and teams underachieved. Among them:
Terrell Owens – Undoubtedly the most physically talented wide receiver in the league, Owens ruined two things this year – the Eagles’ season, and his own reputation. Aligning himself with that slimy roach weasel Drew Rosenhaus was his first mistake. Undermining Donovan McNabb, Andy Reid, and the Eagles front office was his second. Owens was suspended twice by the Eagles, once in training camp and for the last six games of the season. Owens will be released during the off-season, but there’s not a team in the league that will pay Owens the type of big, guaranteed dollars he attempted to extort from the Eagles.
Philadelphia Eagles – I can’t blame this season’s failings solely on T.O. True, he was the primary factor, but some player personnel decisions have to be questioned. Guys like Corey Simon and Derrick Burgess were allowed to walk, both of whom would have helped this defense. When Donovan McNabb went down for the season, Reid was forced to choose between Mike McMahon and Koy Detmer, third-string quarterbacks both. He went with McMahon, and the rest is history. With almost $13 million in cap space, I’ve got to believe they could have done more.
Atlanta Falcons – Last year’s NFC runner-up finished 8-8 and out of the playoffs, and can’t blame their misfortunes on injuries. Maybe they overachieved last year, but they still didn’t do much to address their biggest problem – no receivers for Ron Mexico to throw to. Hell, the Eagles think Atlanta needs some held at receiver.
Minnesota Vikings – Picked by some (including yours truly) to win the NFC North and others (ESPN Magazine) to win the Super Bowl, the Vikes started slow, went on the notorious “Sex Cruise,” lost QB Daunte Culpepper to a major knee injury, then rallied themselves into contention only to collapse at the end of the year, all of which cost Mike Tice his job.
Baltimore Ravens – The knock on the Ravens was that they had no offense. So they picked up WR Derrick Mason in free agency. Jamal Lewis finished his stint in the cooler, and Kyle Boller was supposed to make “The Leap” this season. Needless to say, they fell flat on offense, and with Ray Lewis and Ed Reed missing significant time due to injury, the Ravens’ season went up in smoke.
San Diego Chargers – How can a team this loaded be on the outside looking in at the playoffs? Inconsistency, that’s how.
One more piece of business before we move onto my (revised) playoff predictions. Every season, I pick a sleeper team, not necessarily a team that will contend for the Super Bowl, but a team that will be better than expected, maybe sneak into the playoffs and scare a few people. Two years ago, I went with the Seattle Seahawks (they made the playoffs the next season, the infamous Matt Hasselbeck “we want the ball, and we’re going to score” loss to in Green Bay). Last season? The Jacksonville Jaguars (who fell just short of the post-season). This year, I jumped off the Bears bandwagon after Rex Grossman’s injury and went with the Buffalo Bills. My bad. Anyway, I’m already looking at two potential sleepers for the 2006-07 season.
Miami Dolphins – The Fish went 9-7 in Nick Saban’s first season, including a six-game winning streak to end the season. Ronnie Brown had a good rookie year (1,139 rushing + receiving yards, 5 total TD’s), Chris Chambers may be the most underrated receiver in the league, and their defense is still above average, led by guys like Jason Taylor, Zach Thomas, and Sam Madison. They may be a consistent quarterback away from challenging the Patriots in the AFC East.
Cleveland Browns – Speaking of young talent, the Browns might have found their quarterback of the future in Charlie Frye. Prior to his injury, Braylon Edwards showed flashes of brilliance. And, “Evil” Kellen-evil” Winslow could be a productive tight end. Romeo Crennel will no doubt address the defense, and former Patriots personnel guy Scott Pioli, who came with Crennel, is a great talent evaluator. On top of all that, the Browns should have a cream-puff schedule since they finished 6-10.
Finally, we’ve come to the 2005-06 playoffs, and with the Eagles out and Dallas out, I don’t have a vested interest one way or the other. So here’s how I think it shakes out:
AFC – New England over Jacksonville and Pittsburgh over Cincinnati in the wild card games, meaning the Steelers will head to Indianapolis and New England will play in Denver in the second round. Would it surprise anyone if the Colts and Patriots met for the AFC Title? Me neither. I’ll go ahead and take the Patriots. I know Indy got New England during the regular season, but that Patriots team was down, and until Tom Brady loses in the playoffs, how can you go against him? The Patriots will come out of the AFC.
NFC – Who the hell knows? The NFC is so unpredictable, you’d be better off flipping a coin. In fact, that’s exactly what I’m going to do. With “Heads” representing the home team and “Tails” the visitors, here’s how the NFC playoffs go. Wild cards – Carolina (tails) over New York Giants, Washington (tails) over Tampa Bay; Second Round – Seattle (heads) over Washington, Carolina (tails) over Chicago; NFC Championship – Seattle (heads) over Carolina. Seattle wins the NFC.
Super Bowl – Again, Tom Brady is undefeated in the playoffs. The Patriots (surprise, surprise) take Super Bowl XL. New England 27, Seattle 24.
Yes, it’s the first annual “Season Preview Review,” and what an interesting season it was. There were surprises and major disappointments, of which we’ll speak of a little later. But in the interest of full disclosure, I want to let you know how I stacked up this year.
By my own estimation, I had an average year, posting records of 171-85 (.668) straight up and 134-111-11 (.547) against the spread. Both of those marks are up slightly from the 2004-05 campaign. As for the pre-season predictions, not so good. I only named four of the twelve playoff teams and completely whiffed on my rookies of the year (which Tampa’s Carnell Williams and San Diego’s Shawne Merriman absolutely deserved). A few award winners have yet to be named, so I offer you my thoughts…
Most Valuable Player: Tiki Barber, New York Giants – There are plenty of worthy candidates (Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Carson Palmer, Shaun Alexander), but Barber gets my vote. Three times he ran for over 200 yards (all Giants wins), led the NFL in yards from scrimmage, and gave the Giants offense the balance that carried them to an 11-5 record and an NFC East crown.
Offensive Player of the Year: Shaun Alexander, Seattle Seahawks – Let’s see, he won the rushing title that eluded him by a yard last season, and broke the single-season touchdown record, finding the end zone 28 times for the 13-3 Seahawks.
Defensive Player of the Year: Brian Urlacher, Chicago Bears – The numbers are impressive – 122 tackles, six sacks – but far from the best in the league. So why did I go with Urlacher? Because he’s the unquestioned leader of a defense that literally carried the Bears to the #2 seed, despite an offense that outscored only Detroit, New Orleans, and San Francisco in the NFC.
Coach of the Year: Tony Dungy, Indianapolis Colts – Do I really need to explain? The Colts went 14-2, and proved that they can win under any circumstances. That’s the trademark of a good coach. For the record, I think Bill Belichick deserves some mention here as well. The Patriots surprised nobody by winning the AFC East, but the Pats had to deal with the loss of their offensive and defensive coordinators and a rash of major injuries. They were able to hold it together, and now the Pats look like that team that no one wants to see in the post-season.
Speaking of coaches, it was a bad week for guys named Mike. Mike Martz? Fired by the St. Louis Rams. Mike Tice? Dismissed as Vikings head coach. Mike Sherman? Out as coach of the Packers (which could in turn lead to the retirement of Brett Favre, who said if Sherman was fired, he’d quit). No word on whether or not Buffalo’s Mike Mularkey or Denver’s Mike Shanahan have put their houses on the market. Other coaching vacancies reside in Oakland (Norv Turner), New Orleans (Jim Haslett), and Kansas City (Dick Vermeil).
Coaches weren’t the only disappointment this year, as some players and teams underachieved. Among them:
Terrell Owens – Undoubtedly the most physically talented wide receiver in the league, Owens ruined two things this year – the Eagles’ season, and his own reputation. Aligning himself with that slimy roach weasel Drew Rosenhaus was his first mistake. Undermining Donovan McNabb, Andy Reid, and the Eagles front office was his second. Owens was suspended twice by the Eagles, once in training camp and for the last six games of the season. Owens will be released during the off-season, but there’s not a team in the league that will pay Owens the type of big, guaranteed dollars he attempted to extort from the Eagles.
Philadelphia Eagles – I can’t blame this season’s failings solely on T.O. True, he was the primary factor, but some player personnel decisions have to be questioned. Guys like Corey Simon and Derrick Burgess were allowed to walk, both of whom would have helped this defense. When Donovan McNabb went down for the season, Reid was forced to choose between Mike McMahon and Koy Detmer, third-string quarterbacks both. He went with McMahon, and the rest is history. With almost $13 million in cap space, I’ve got to believe they could have done more.
Atlanta Falcons – Last year’s NFC runner-up finished 8-8 and out of the playoffs, and can’t blame their misfortunes on injuries. Maybe they overachieved last year, but they still didn’t do much to address their biggest problem – no receivers for Ron Mexico to throw to. Hell, the Eagles think Atlanta needs some held at receiver.
Minnesota Vikings – Picked by some (including yours truly) to win the NFC North and others (ESPN Magazine) to win the Super Bowl, the Vikes started slow, went on the notorious “Sex Cruise,” lost QB Daunte Culpepper to a major knee injury, then rallied themselves into contention only to collapse at the end of the year, all of which cost Mike Tice his job.
Baltimore Ravens – The knock on the Ravens was that they had no offense. So they picked up WR Derrick Mason in free agency. Jamal Lewis finished his stint in the cooler, and Kyle Boller was supposed to make “The Leap” this season. Needless to say, they fell flat on offense, and with Ray Lewis and Ed Reed missing significant time due to injury, the Ravens’ season went up in smoke.
San Diego Chargers – How can a team this loaded be on the outside looking in at the playoffs? Inconsistency, that’s how.
One more piece of business before we move onto my (revised) playoff predictions. Every season, I pick a sleeper team, not necessarily a team that will contend for the Super Bowl, but a team that will be better than expected, maybe sneak into the playoffs and scare a few people. Two years ago, I went with the Seattle Seahawks (they made the playoffs the next season, the infamous Matt Hasselbeck “we want the ball, and we’re going to score” loss to in Green Bay). Last season? The Jacksonville Jaguars (who fell just short of the post-season). This year, I jumped off the Bears bandwagon after Rex Grossman’s injury and went with the Buffalo Bills. My bad. Anyway, I’m already looking at two potential sleepers for the 2006-07 season.
Miami Dolphins – The Fish went 9-7 in Nick Saban’s first season, including a six-game winning streak to end the season. Ronnie Brown had a good rookie year (1,139 rushing + receiving yards, 5 total TD’s), Chris Chambers may be the most underrated receiver in the league, and their defense is still above average, led by guys like Jason Taylor, Zach Thomas, and Sam Madison. They may be a consistent quarterback away from challenging the Patriots in the AFC East.
Cleveland Browns – Speaking of young talent, the Browns might have found their quarterback of the future in Charlie Frye. Prior to his injury, Braylon Edwards showed flashes of brilliance. And, “Evil” Kellen-evil” Winslow could be a productive tight end. Romeo Crennel will no doubt address the defense, and former Patriots personnel guy Scott Pioli, who came with Crennel, is a great talent evaluator. On top of all that, the Browns should have a cream-puff schedule since they finished 6-10.
Finally, we’ve come to the 2005-06 playoffs, and with the Eagles out and Dallas out, I don’t have a vested interest one way or the other. So here’s how I think it shakes out:
AFC – New England over Jacksonville and Pittsburgh over Cincinnati in the wild card games, meaning the Steelers will head to Indianapolis and New England will play in Denver in the second round. Would it surprise anyone if the Colts and Patriots met for the AFC Title? Me neither. I’ll go ahead and take the Patriots. I know Indy got New England during the regular season, but that Patriots team was down, and until Tom Brady loses in the playoffs, how can you go against him? The Patriots will come out of the AFC.
NFC – Who the hell knows? The NFC is so unpredictable, you’d be better off flipping a coin. In fact, that’s exactly what I’m going to do. With “Heads” representing the home team and “Tails” the visitors, here’s how the NFC playoffs go. Wild cards – Carolina (tails) over New York Giants, Washington (tails) over Tampa Bay; Second Round – Seattle (heads) over Washington, Carolina (tails) over Chicago; NFC Championship – Seattle (heads) over Carolina. Seattle wins the NFC.
Super Bowl – Again, Tom Brady is undefeated in the playoffs. The Patriots (surprise, surprise) take Super Bowl XL. New England 27, Seattle 24.
Friday, December 30, 2005
The Week 17 Picks
And so we’ve reached the end of the regular season, and this weekend’s games are peppered with playoff implications, resting starters, and of course, the Reggie Bush Bowl between Houston and San Francisco (which could actually play out more like a lottery, as up to five teams could be tied for the worst record in the league). This is always one of the toughest weeks to pick, just for the record. Also, look for the first annual “Season Preview Review”coming next week. Read on, and Happy New Year to you!
The Match-up: Denver (+10.5) @ San Diego
The Skinny: The Broncos are locked into the #2 spot in the AFC, thus many of their regulars will be on the sidelines in baseball caps. San Diego, loaded as they are, should be playing for more than pride against a division rival.
Straight up: San Diego
Against the Spread: San Diego
The Match-up: New York Giants (-9.0) @ Oakland
The Skinny: Typically, I steer clear of Eli Manning on the road. However, this is a must-win for the Giants to lock up the NFC East, and Oakland shouldn’t be much of a spoiler.
Straight up: New York Giants
Against the Spread: New York Giants
The Match-up: Cincinnati (+7.5) @ Kansas City
The Skinny: Not much intrigue here other than Larry Johnson looking for his 9th straight 100-yard game. I know the Chiefs are technically still alive for the playoffs, but that’s only if Pittsburgh loses to Detroit (and that’s not going to happen).
Straight up: Kansas City
Against the Spread: Kansas City
The Match-up: Miami (+5.5) @ New England
The Skinny: The Pats still have an outside chance at the #3 seed, which would mean a home game in Foxboro and avoiding the Colts in the second round.
Straight up: New England
Against the Spread: New England
The Match-up: Buffalo (-1.5) @ New York Jets
The Skinny: The Jets are one of the teams with an outside chance at the #1 pick. I had an inclination to take them this week, but then I’ve remembered past hunches about this team and getting burned. So, I’m reluctantly taking the Bills.
Straight up: Buffalo
Against the Spread: Buffalo
The Match-up: Carolina (-4.0) @ Atlanta
The Skinny: The Panthers need a win to clinch a playoff berth, so they’ll pull out all the stops. One problem – they have lost seven straight in Atlanta and are 1-9 all time in the Georgia Dome. Atlanta may not spoil the Panthers’ season, but they’ll give them a game.
Straight up: Carolina
Against the Spread: Atlanta
The Match-up: Detroit (+13.5) @ Pittsburgh
The Skinny: See “Cincinnati (+7.5) @ Kansas City”
Straight up: Pittsburgh
Against the Spread: Pittsburgh
The Match-up: Baltimore (-3.0) @ Cleveland
The Skinny: The Browns look to bounce back from last week’s 41-0 embarrassment at the hands of the Steelers. Baltimore, meanwhile, has players and coaches fighting for jobs next season.
Straight up: Baltimore
Against the Spread: Baltimore
The Match-up: New Orleans (+13.5) @ Tampa Bay
The Skinny: The Bucs control their own destiny in terms of winning the NFC South.
Straight up: Tampa Bay
Against the Spread: Tampa Bay
The Match-up: Seattle (+4.5) @ Green Bay
The Skinny: Shaun Alexander has a chance to break the single-season touchdown record, so he’ll start. Chances are he’ll score early to clinch the record, then join the other Seattle starters on the bench.
Straight up: Green Bay
Against the Spread: Green Bay
The Match-up: Arizona (+6.5) @ Indianapolis
The Skinny: Welcome back, Coach Dungy.
Straight up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Indianapolis
The Match-up: Houston (-1.0) @ San Francisco
The Skinny: If the Texans end up with the #1 pick, guys like Domanick Davis and Johnathan Wells could end up on the trading block (Note to Texans front office – grab some offensive linemen).
Straight up: San Francisco
Against the Spread: San Francisco
The Match-up: Tennessee (+3.5) @ Jacksonville
The Skinny: Jacksonville is the #5 seed, win lose or draw, and they’re 3-1 behind David Garrard, with that one loss at the hands of the mighty Colts. So why all the talk about Byron Leftwich suiting up this week?
Straight up: Jacksonville
Against the Spread: Jacksonville
The Match-up: Chicago (+4.0) @ Minnesota
The Skinny: Normally, I would advise that the Bears sit Rex Grossman. But he’s been out for so long, and developing chemistry with the offense wouldn’t be a bad thing. Plus, if the worst happens and Grossman gets hurt (again), Kyle Orton waits in the wings, and he did a solid job as a starter in Grossman’s absence.
Straight up: Chicago
Against the Spread: Chicago
The Match-up: Washington (-7.5) @ Philadelphia
The Skinny: For the Redskins, it’s simple – win and they’re in. The Eagles would love nothing more than to spoil Washington’s hopes.
Straight up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia
The Match-up: St. Louis (+12.5) @ Dallas
The Skinny: There actually will be a perfect record in the NFL this season…16 times the Dallas Cowboys took the field, and 16 times I’ve picked against them. No playoffs for the Cowgirls, and another retirement for Bill Parcells. Good riddance, Tuna.
Straight up: St. Louis
Against the Spread: St. Louis
The Match-up: Denver (+10.5) @ San Diego
The Skinny: The Broncos are locked into the #2 spot in the AFC, thus many of their regulars will be on the sidelines in baseball caps. San Diego, loaded as they are, should be playing for more than pride against a division rival.
Straight up: San Diego
Against the Spread: San Diego
The Match-up: New York Giants (-9.0) @ Oakland
The Skinny: Typically, I steer clear of Eli Manning on the road. However, this is a must-win for the Giants to lock up the NFC East, and Oakland shouldn’t be much of a spoiler.
Straight up: New York Giants
Against the Spread: New York Giants
The Match-up: Cincinnati (+7.5) @ Kansas City
The Skinny: Not much intrigue here other than Larry Johnson looking for his 9th straight 100-yard game. I know the Chiefs are technically still alive for the playoffs, but that’s only if Pittsburgh loses to Detroit (and that’s not going to happen).
Straight up: Kansas City
Against the Spread: Kansas City
The Match-up: Miami (+5.5) @ New England
The Skinny: The Pats still have an outside chance at the #3 seed, which would mean a home game in Foxboro and avoiding the Colts in the second round.
Straight up: New England
Against the Spread: New England
The Match-up: Buffalo (-1.5) @ New York Jets
The Skinny: The Jets are one of the teams with an outside chance at the #1 pick. I had an inclination to take them this week, but then I’ve remembered past hunches about this team and getting burned. So, I’m reluctantly taking the Bills.
Straight up: Buffalo
Against the Spread: Buffalo
The Match-up: Carolina (-4.0) @ Atlanta
The Skinny: The Panthers need a win to clinch a playoff berth, so they’ll pull out all the stops. One problem – they have lost seven straight in Atlanta and are 1-9 all time in the Georgia Dome. Atlanta may not spoil the Panthers’ season, but they’ll give them a game.
Straight up: Carolina
Against the Spread: Atlanta
The Match-up: Detroit (+13.5) @ Pittsburgh
The Skinny: See “Cincinnati (+7.5) @ Kansas City”
Straight up: Pittsburgh
Against the Spread: Pittsburgh
The Match-up: Baltimore (-3.0) @ Cleveland
The Skinny: The Browns look to bounce back from last week’s 41-0 embarrassment at the hands of the Steelers. Baltimore, meanwhile, has players and coaches fighting for jobs next season.
Straight up: Baltimore
Against the Spread: Baltimore
The Match-up: New Orleans (+13.5) @ Tampa Bay
The Skinny: The Bucs control their own destiny in terms of winning the NFC South.
Straight up: Tampa Bay
Against the Spread: Tampa Bay
The Match-up: Seattle (+4.5) @ Green Bay
The Skinny: Shaun Alexander has a chance to break the single-season touchdown record, so he’ll start. Chances are he’ll score early to clinch the record, then join the other Seattle starters on the bench.
Straight up: Green Bay
Against the Spread: Green Bay
The Match-up: Arizona (+6.5) @ Indianapolis
The Skinny: Welcome back, Coach Dungy.
Straight up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Indianapolis
The Match-up: Houston (-1.0) @ San Francisco
The Skinny: If the Texans end up with the #1 pick, guys like Domanick Davis and Johnathan Wells could end up on the trading block (Note to Texans front office – grab some offensive linemen).
Straight up: San Francisco
Against the Spread: San Francisco
The Match-up: Tennessee (+3.5) @ Jacksonville
The Skinny: Jacksonville is the #5 seed, win lose or draw, and they’re 3-1 behind David Garrard, with that one loss at the hands of the mighty Colts. So why all the talk about Byron Leftwich suiting up this week?
Straight up: Jacksonville
Against the Spread: Jacksonville
The Match-up: Chicago (+4.0) @ Minnesota
The Skinny: Normally, I would advise that the Bears sit Rex Grossman. But he’s been out for so long, and developing chemistry with the offense wouldn’t be a bad thing. Plus, if the worst happens and Grossman gets hurt (again), Kyle Orton waits in the wings, and he did a solid job as a starter in Grossman’s absence.
Straight up: Chicago
Against the Spread: Chicago
The Match-up: Washington (-7.5) @ Philadelphia
The Skinny: For the Redskins, it’s simple – win and they’re in. The Eagles would love nothing more than to spoil Washington’s hopes.
Straight up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia
The Match-up: St. Louis (+12.5) @ Dallas
The Skinny: There actually will be a perfect record in the NFL this season…16 times the Dallas Cowboys took the field, and 16 times I’ve picked against them. No playoffs for the Cowgirls, and another retirement for Bill Parcells. Good riddance, Tuna.
Straight up: St. Louis
Against the Spread: St. Louis
Friday, December 23, 2005
The Week 16 Picks
Before we get started, I want to personally express my condolences to Colts head coach Tony Dungy on the death of his son, James, who apparently committed suicide this week at the age of 18. As a father, I couldn’t imagine losing one of my children, especially around the holidays. So whether you celebrate Christmas, Hanukkah, or Kwanzaa, say a prayer for Coach Dungy and his family.
I wish you all a safe and happy holiday season
The Match-up: Tennessee (+5.5) @ Miami
The Skinny: Sounds more like a Peach Bowl than a meaningless Week 16 NFL match-up (and, quite frankly, a more intriguing one).
Straight up: Miami
Against the Spread: Miami
The Match-up: Detroit (+3.0) @ New Orleans
The Skinny: Both teams are just a mess. The Lions are back to Joey Harrington, who actually showed signs of life in relief of Jeff Garcia a week ago. New Orleans started Todd Bouman last week, and he showed up Aaron Brooks…by tossing 4 picks! Brutal.
Straight up: New Orleans
Against the Spread: New Orleans
The Match-up: Atlanta (+3.0) @ Tampa Bay
The Skinny: Ron Mexico faces his nemesis on Saturday, as the Bucs always seem to make Mexico one-dimensional (and not the good dimension, either).
Straight up: Tampa Bay
Against the Spread: Tampa Bay
The Match-up: Buffalo (+14.0) @ Cincinnati
The Skinny: Chad Johnson is at it again. He stated this week that he had a Christmas-themed TD celebration planned that would incorporate a reindeer. Fun stuff.
Straight up: Cincinnati
Against the Spread: Buffalo
The Match-up: New York Giants (+3.0) @ Washington
The Skinny: Loyal readers should know what’s coming here. Eli Manning on the road against a VERY good defense? It’s almost like stealing.
Straight up: Washington
Against the Spread: Washington
The Match-up: Cleveland (+7.0) @ Pittsburgh
The Skinny: Desperation tells me that the Steelers will come to play on Saturday. They’re still alive, and can’t afford a let-down against their bitter rival. Speaking of, I gave you Miami as a potential sleeper for next year, but how about the Browns in that same vain?
Straight up: Pittsburgh
Against the Spread: Pittsburgh
The Match-up: Dallas (+5.0) @ Carolina
The Skinny: Nice effort by the Cowgirls last week. Another loss this week in Carolina should pretty much seal their fate.
Straight up: Carolina
Against the Spread: Carolina
The Match-up: Jacksonville (-6.0) @ Houston
The Skinny: The Texans actually hurt themselves with a win last week, dropping them into a tie with San Francisco for the worst record in the Reggie Bush sweepstakes.
Straight up: Houston
Against the Spread: Houston
The Match-up: San Diego (Pick) @ Kansas City
The Skinny: Good match-up between the top-ranked Chargers run defense and the 100-yards per game streak of pro-bowler Larry Johnson. It may be hard for San Diego to get all the way up for this one (which explains the line a little bit), but I’ll take a chance on them..
Straight up: San Diego
Against the Spread: San Diego
The Match-up: San Francisco (+9.0) @ St. Louis
The Skinny: Did you know that 49ers quarterback Alex Smith, the number one overall pick of a year ago, was a high school teammate of Reggie Bush? They may be together again very, very soon.
Straight up: St. Louis
Against the Spread: St. Louis
The Match-up: Philadelphia (+1.0) @ Arizona
The Skinny: If only you could combine these two offenses and put Boldin and Fitzgerald on the Eagles…
Straight up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia
The Match-up: Indianapolis (+10.0) @ Seattle
The Skinny: Suddenly, this game seems meaningless. True, it could be a Super Bowl preview. However, questions arise. Now that the perfect season has come and gone, how much will the Colts starters play? And, will the team be able to focus with Tony Dungy dealing with the personal tragedy that befell him this week? I almost feel disrespectful making a pick in this game.
Straight up: Seattle
Against the Spread: Seattle
The Match-up: Oakland (+13.0) @ Denver
The Skinny: Even if Raiders RB LaMont Jordan was healthy, I still would have taken Denver.
Straight up: Denver
Against the Spread: Denver
The Match-up: Chicago (-7.0) @ Green Bay
The Skinny: Is this the end for Brett Favre? If so, it’s a shame to see him go out like this. Just in case, congratulations on a hall of fame career, Brett.
Straight up: Chicago
Against the Spread: Chicago
The Match-up: Minnesota (+2.5) @ Baltimore
The Skinny: Okay, as a guy who thought the Ravens were going to be a contender this year, I have to ask - where has this offense been all year?
Straight up: Baltimore
Against the Spread: Baltimore
The Match-up: New England (-5.5) @ New York Jets
The Skinny: It’s the finale for Monday Night Football on ABC, and they’ll focus more on the history of the program as opposed to the actual game. The Patriots are starting to look like, well, the Patriots, and they’re the team no one wants to play in the playoffs. The more things change, the more they stay the same.
Straight up: New England
Against the Spread: New England
I wish you all a safe and happy holiday season
The Match-up: Tennessee (+5.5) @ Miami
The Skinny: Sounds more like a Peach Bowl than a meaningless Week 16 NFL match-up (and, quite frankly, a more intriguing one).
Straight up: Miami
Against the Spread: Miami
The Match-up: Detroit (+3.0) @ New Orleans
The Skinny: Both teams are just a mess. The Lions are back to Joey Harrington, who actually showed signs of life in relief of Jeff Garcia a week ago. New Orleans started Todd Bouman last week, and he showed up Aaron Brooks…by tossing 4 picks! Brutal.
Straight up: New Orleans
Against the Spread: New Orleans
The Match-up: Atlanta (+3.0) @ Tampa Bay
The Skinny: Ron Mexico faces his nemesis on Saturday, as the Bucs always seem to make Mexico one-dimensional (and not the good dimension, either).
Straight up: Tampa Bay
Against the Spread: Tampa Bay
The Match-up: Buffalo (+14.0) @ Cincinnati
The Skinny: Chad Johnson is at it again. He stated this week that he had a Christmas-themed TD celebration planned that would incorporate a reindeer. Fun stuff.
Straight up: Cincinnati
Against the Spread: Buffalo
The Match-up: New York Giants (+3.0) @ Washington
The Skinny: Loyal readers should know what’s coming here. Eli Manning on the road against a VERY good defense? It’s almost like stealing.
Straight up: Washington
Against the Spread: Washington
The Match-up: Cleveland (+7.0) @ Pittsburgh
The Skinny: Desperation tells me that the Steelers will come to play on Saturday. They’re still alive, and can’t afford a let-down against their bitter rival. Speaking of, I gave you Miami as a potential sleeper for next year, but how about the Browns in that same vain?
Straight up: Pittsburgh
Against the Spread: Pittsburgh
The Match-up: Dallas (+5.0) @ Carolina
The Skinny: Nice effort by the Cowgirls last week. Another loss this week in Carolina should pretty much seal their fate.
Straight up: Carolina
Against the Spread: Carolina
The Match-up: Jacksonville (-6.0) @ Houston
The Skinny: The Texans actually hurt themselves with a win last week, dropping them into a tie with San Francisco for the worst record in the Reggie Bush sweepstakes.
Straight up: Houston
Against the Spread: Houston
The Match-up: San Diego (Pick) @ Kansas City
The Skinny: Good match-up between the top-ranked Chargers run defense and the 100-yards per game streak of pro-bowler Larry Johnson. It may be hard for San Diego to get all the way up for this one (which explains the line a little bit), but I’ll take a chance on them..
Straight up: San Diego
Against the Spread: San Diego
The Match-up: San Francisco (+9.0) @ St. Louis
The Skinny: Did you know that 49ers quarterback Alex Smith, the number one overall pick of a year ago, was a high school teammate of Reggie Bush? They may be together again very, very soon.
Straight up: St. Louis
Against the Spread: St. Louis
The Match-up: Philadelphia (+1.0) @ Arizona
The Skinny: If only you could combine these two offenses and put Boldin and Fitzgerald on the Eagles…
Straight up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia
The Match-up: Indianapolis (+10.0) @ Seattle
The Skinny: Suddenly, this game seems meaningless. True, it could be a Super Bowl preview. However, questions arise. Now that the perfect season has come and gone, how much will the Colts starters play? And, will the team be able to focus with Tony Dungy dealing with the personal tragedy that befell him this week? I almost feel disrespectful making a pick in this game.
Straight up: Seattle
Against the Spread: Seattle
The Match-up: Oakland (+13.0) @ Denver
The Skinny: Even if Raiders RB LaMont Jordan was healthy, I still would have taken Denver.
Straight up: Denver
Against the Spread: Denver
The Match-up: Chicago (-7.0) @ Green Bay
The Skinny: Is this the end for Brett Favre? If so, it’s a shame to see him go out like this. Just in case, congratulations on a hall of fame career, Brett.
Straight up: Chicago
Against the Spread: Chicago
The Match-up: Minnesota (+2.5) @ Baltimore
The Skinny: Okay, as a guy who thought the Ravens were going to be a contender this year, I have to ask - where has this offense been all year?
Straight up: Baltimore
Against the Spread: Baltimore
The Match-up: New England (-5.5) @ New York Jets
The Skinny: It’s the finale for Monday Night Football on ABC, and they’ll focus more on the history of the program as opposed to the actual game. The Patriots are starting to look like, well, the Patriots, and they’re the team no one wants to play in the playoffs. The more things change, the more they stay the same.
Straight up: New England
Against the Spread: New England
Friday, December 16, 2005
And Down the Stretch they Come - The Week 15 Picks
News flash – I’m not black.
Maybe that’s why I can’t understand the comments made by J. Whyatt “Jerry” Mondesire, the head of the Philadelphia chapter of the NAACP, in which he criticized Eagles QB Donovan McNabb for not running the ball more, adding that McNabb’s failing to scramble “not only amounts to a breach of faith but also belittles the real struggles of black athletes who've had to overcome real racial stereotypcasting in addition to downright segregation.”
Um, Jerry, what the hell are you talking about?
Perhaps, in the grand scheme of things, McNabb running less this season had something to do with the bruised sternum, sports hernia, and groin injuries he was playing through. Maybe it’s not about race, but rather it’s about wins and losses. McNabb didn’t run as much last year, but the Eagles were 13-3 and a Super Bowl team. Coincidentally, there were no complaints from the NAACP about him selling out. If the Eagles were 8-5 and in the playoff hunt as opposed to 5-8 and eliminated from playoff contention, would we even know who Jerry Mondesire is?
Look, I don’t know ‘5’ personally, but I can pretty much guarantee you that when he dropped back in the pocket and saw a lane to run through, his thought process did not involve retarding the progress of black athletes across the globe. Think of it this way – did Steve Young set white people back because he was a scrambling quarterback and not the typical pocket passer? Of course not.
In case you were unaware, the last three letters of the acronym “NAACP” stand for “Advancement of Colored People.” I’m not sure how Mondesire’s comments do anything to foster the advancement of black athletes. Don’t get me wrong, he’s as entitled to his opinion as I am to mine, but it would seem to me that using the forum he did might lead someone to believe that his opinion is that of the NAACP and not that of a bitter Eagles fan.
Speaking of which, how about a little slack for the Eagles? This is a team that went to four straight NFC Championship games and a Super Bowl in the last four seasons. They have a down year, and now all of a sudden they need a new coach, a GM, a new quarterback, and new ownership. Come on, people. The reality of the situation is that the Eagles have had a lot to deal with this year (including significant injuries and a clubhouse cancer that, thankfully, was eradicated), and they slipped a little. But they don’t need to blow the whole thing up and start over. There is still a nucleus of talent with this team (McNabb, Brian Westbrook, Jevon Kearse, Jeremiah Trotter, Brian Dawkins, Sheldon Brown, Lito Sheppard, Michael Lewis, David Akers) and there are some young players in place who look like legitimate NFL players (Trent Cole, Reggie Brown, Ryan Moats, Shawn Andrews). Believe me, the Eagles will be back.
Alright, that’s enough soap box for this week. I like that the NFL starts playing on Saturdays now that college football is into the Bowl season. It gives the marginal basketball fans (like myself) something to watch on a Saturday afternoon. It’s one reason why the NFL is so popular. Another reason? Parity. That said, there are a few games that are tough to call this week, as detailed below in the Week 15 picks. Here they are.
The Match-up: Tampa Bay (+4.5) @ New England
The Skinny: If Brady was healthy, I’d probably take the Pats because of Tampa’s history in cold weather. But the Bucs impressed me by going into Carolina and dominating last week against one of the best defenses in the league.
Straight up: New England
Against the Spread: Tampa Bay
The Match-up: Kansas City (+3.0) @ New York Giants
The Skinny: The G-Men got all they could handle from the Eagles practice squad last week, and they won’t sleep on a team like K.C. Eli Manning is a much better QB at home, and since this game is in the swamps of Jersey, I like big blue.
Straight up: New York Giants
Against the Spread: New York Giants
The Match-up: Denver (-8.5) @ Buffalo
The Skinny: If only the Bills had a QB that could take advantage of the injured Broncos secondary…
Straight up: Denver
Against the Spread: Denver
The Match-up: San Francisco (+15.5) @ Jacksonville
The Skinny: Jacksonville’s last three games of the season are against Frisco, Houston, and Tennessee. In other words, there’s no need for Byron Leftwich to hurry back from his broken ankle.
Straight up: Jacksonville
Against the Spread: San Francisco
The Match-up: Arizona (-1.5) @ Houston
The Skinny: Anybody else think the Texans are tanking it to get Reggie Bush? Me too.
Straight up: Houston
Against the Spread: Houston
The Match-up: Seattle (-7.0) @ Tennessee
The Skinny: The Seahawks have had their problems on the road, but shouldn’t on Sunday.
Straight up: Seattle
Against the Spread: Seattle
The Match-up: San Diego (+7.5) @ Indianapolis
The Skinny: The Chargers need this game, and there’s no telling how long Tony Dungy will play his starters. I don’t know if San Diego will win this game, but they’ll play like it’s the post-season.
Straight up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: San Diego
The Match-up: Philadelphia (+3.5) @ St. Louis
The Skinny: I guess Ryan Fitzpatrick is not the next Kurt Warner.
Straight up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia
The Match-up: New York Jets (+8.5) @ Miami
The Skinny: The Dolphins are an early contender for a 2006 sleeper team.
Straight up: Miami
Against the Spread: Miami
The Match-up: Pittsburgh (-3.0) @ Minnesota
The Skinny: The Vikings’ winning streak has to come to an end sometime.
Straight up: Pittsburgh
Against the Spread: Pittsburgh
The Match-up: Carolina (-9.0) @ New Orleans
The Skinny: The Saints shocked the Panthers in the season opener. Don’t think that the Panthers forgot that.
Straight up: Carolina
Against the Spread: Carolina
The Match-up: Cincinnati (-8.0) @ Detroit
The Skinny: Early congratulations to the Bengals for ending their 15-year playoff drought. Here’s hoping they don’t make any more music videos.
Straight up: Cincinnati
Against the Spread: Cincinnati
The Match-up: Cleveland (+3.0) @ Oakland
The Skinny: First coach to get fired in the off-season? My money is on Norv Turner. I wonder if the Browns would have been better suited playing Charlie Frye all season.
Straight up: Oakland
Against the Spread: Oakland
The Match-up: Dallas (+3.0) @ Washington
The Skinny: Since the Eagles have been eliminated from the playoffs, I’ve adopted the “ABC” philosophy – Anybody But the Cowboys.
Straight up: Washington
Against the Spread: Washington
The Match-up: Atlanta (+3.0) @ Chicago
The Skinny: Dome teams in Chicago in December usually don’t fare well.
Straight up: Chicago
Against the Spread: Chicago
The Match-up: Green Bay (+3.5) @ Baltimore
The Skinny: As bad as the Packers are, it’s Monday Night Football and its Brett Favre. I just can’t bring myself to take the Ravens.
Straight up: Green Bay
Against the Spread: Green Bay
Maybe that’s why I can’t understand the comments made by J. Whyatt “Jerry” Mondesire, the head of the Philadelphia chapter of the NAACP, in which he criticized Eagles QB Donovan McNabb for not running the ball more, adding that McNabb’s failing to scramble “not only amounts to a breach of faith but also belittles the real struggles of black athletes who've had to overcome real racial stereotypcasting in addition to downright segregation.”
Um, Jerry, what the hell are you talking about?
Perhaps, in the grand scheme of things, McNabb running less this season had something to do with the bruised sternum, sports hernia, and groin injuries he was playing through. Maybe it’s not about race, but rather it’s about wins and losses. McNabb didn’t run as much last year, but the Eagles were 13-3 and a Super Bowl team. Coincidentally, there were no complaints from the NAACP about him selling out. If the Eagles were 8-5 and in the playoff hunt as opposed to 5-8 and eliminated from playoff contention, would we even know who Jerry Mondesire is?
Look, I don’t know ‘5’ personally, but I can pretty much guarantee you that when he dropped back in the pocket and saw a lane to run through, his thought process did not involve retarding the progress of black athletes across the globe. Think of it this way – did Steve Young set white people back because he was a scrambling quarterback and not the typical pocket passer? Of course not.
In case you were unaware, the last three letters of the acronym “NAACP” stand for “Advancement of Colored People.” I’m not sure how Mondesire’s comments do anything to foster the advancement of black athletes. Don’t get me wrong, he’s as entitled to his opinion as I am to mine, but it would seem to me that using the forum he did might lead someone to believe that his opinion is that of the NAACP and not that of a bitter Eagles fan.
Speaking of which, how about a little slack for the Eagles? This is a team that went to four straight NFC Championship games and a Super Bowl in the last four seasons. They have a down year, and now all of a sudden they need a new coach, a GM, a new quarterback, and new ownership. Come on, people. The reality of the situation is that the Eagles have had a lot to deal with this year (including significant injuries and a clubhouse cancer that, thankfully, was eradicated), and they slipped a little. But they don’t need to blow the whole thing up and start over. There is still a nucleus of talent with this team (McNabb, Brian Westbrook, Jevon Kearse, Jeremiah Trotter, Brian Dawkins, Sheldon Brown, Lito Sheppard, Michael Lewis, David Akers) and there are some young players in place who look like legitimate NFL players (Trent Cole, Reggie Brown, Ryan Moats, Shawn Andrews). Believe me, the Eagles will be back.
Alright, that’s enough soap box for this week. I like that the NFL starts playing on Saturdays now that college football is into the Bowl season. It gives the marginal basketball fans (like myself) something to watch on a Saturday afternoon. It’s one reason why the NFL is so popular. Another reason? Parity. That said, there are a few games that are tough to call this week, as detailed below in the Week 15 picks. Here they are.
The Match-up: Tampa Bay (+4.5) @ New England
The Skinny: If Brady was healthy, I’d probably take the Pats because of Tampa’s history in cold weather. But the Bucs impressed me by going into Carolina and dominating last week against one of the best defenses in the league.
Straight up: New England
Against the Spread: Tampa Bay
The Match-up: Kansas City (+3.0) @ New York Giants
The Skinny: The G-Men got all they could handle from the Eagles practice squad last week, and they won’t sleep on a team like K.C. Eli Manning is a much better QB at home, and since this game is in the swamps of Jersey, I like big blue.
Straight up: New York Giants
Against the Spread: New York Giants
The Match-up: Denver (-8.5) @ Buffalo
The Skinny: If only the Bills had a QB that could take advantage of the injured Broncos secondary…
Straight up: Denver
Against the Spread: Denver
The Match-up: San Francisco (+15.5) @ Jacksonville
The Skinny: Jacksonville’s last three games of the season are against Frisco, Houston, and Tennessee. In other words, there’s no need for Byron Leftwich to hurry back from his broken ankle.
Straight up: Jacksonville
Against the Spread: San Francisco
The Match-up: Arizona (-1.5) @ Houston
The Skinny: Anybody else think the Texans are tanking it to get Reggie Bush? Me too.
Straight up: Houston
Against the Spread: Houston
The Match-up: Seattle (-7.0) @ Tennessee
The Skinny: The Seahawks have had their problems on the road, but shouldn’t on Sunday.
Straight up: Seattle
Against the Spread: Seattle
The Match-up: San Diego (+7.5) @ Indianapolis
The Skinny: The Chargers need this game, and there’s no telling how long Tony Dungy will play his starters. I don’t know if San Diego will win this game, but they’ll play like it’s the post-season.
Straight up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: San Diego
The Match-up: Philadelphia (+3.5) @ St. Louis
The Skinny: I guess Ryan Fitzpatrick is not the next Kurt Warner.
Straight up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia
The Match-up: New York Jets (+8.5) @ Miami
The Skinny: The Dolphins are an early contender for a 2006 sleeper team.
Straight up: Miami
Against the Spread: Miami
The Match-up: Pittsburgh (-3.0) @ Minnesota
The Skinny: The Vikings’ winning streak has to come to an end sometime.
Straight up: Pittsburgh
Against the Spread: Pittsburgh
The Match-up: Carolina (-9.0) @ New Orleans
The Skinny: The Saints shocked the Panthers in the season opener. Don’t think that the Panthers forgot that.
Straight up: Carolina
Against the Spread: Carolina
The Match-up: Cincinnati (-8.0) @ Detroit
The Skinny: Early congratulations to the Bengals for ending their 15-year playoff drought. Here’s hoping they don’t make any more music videos.
Straight up: Cincinnati
Against the Spread: Cincinnati
The Match-up: Cleveland (+3.0) @ Oakland
The Skinny: First coach to get fired in the off-season? My money is on Norv Turner. I wonder if the Browns would have been better suited playing Charlie Frye all season.
Straight up: Oakland
Against the Spread: Oakland
The Match-up: Dallas (+3.0) @ Washington
The Skinny: Since the Eagles have been eliminated from the playoffs, I’ve adopted the “ABC” philosophy – Anybody But the Cowboys.
Straight up: Washington
Against the Spread: Washington
The Match-up: Atlanta (+3.0) @ Chicago
The Skinny: Dome teams in Chicago in December usually don’t fare well.
Straight up: Chicago
Against the Spread: Chicago
The Match-up: Green Bay (+3.5) @ Baltimore
The Skinny: As bad as the Packers are, it’s Monday Night Football and its Brett Favre. I just can’t bring myself to take the Ravens.
Straight up: Green Bay
Against the Spread: Green Bay
Friday, December 09, 2005
The Week 14 Picks
Embarrassing…
Frustrating…
Pathetic…
Unfortunate…
I know what you’re thinking - the Eagles on Monday night against Seattle. Well, yes, but I was actually referring to my Fantasy Football team. Last year, I won the championship. This year, I’m in 10th place in a ten team league. I’ve just been snake-bitten this year, as you’ll see from the following summary:
Ø For starters, I drew 9th in the draft order. My strategy was going to be to take the best RB on the board at 9, then take Donovan McNabb at 12 (except that ‘5’ went 3rd overall, hence a monkey wrench was thrown into the system).
Ø I traded Domanick Davis for Tiki Barber, only to then package Barber in a deal for Rudi Johnson, who I then traded with Reggie Wayne for Curtis Martin, Donte' Stallworth, and Duce Staley. I recently dealt Martin for convicted felon Jamal Lewis.
Ø I acquired Ahman Green for Corey Dillon. Green played about a half of football for me before rupturing a thigh tendon and being shelved for the season.
Ø I picked up Eric Moulds from Buffalo, who was just suspended by the team after failing to catch a pass last week for the first time in 121 games.
Ø I decided against trading Byron Leftwich for Drew Brees a week before Leftwich broke his ankle.
Ø Had I not made any trades, I could have fielded a team last week of Jake Plummer (11.84 points), Ben Roethlisberger (21.64), Corey Dillon (14.40), Thomas Jones (9.30), Reggie Wayne (11.00), T.J. Houshmandzadeh (21.50), Lee Evans (29.70), Randy McMichael (4.10), John Kasay (6.00), and the Jacksonville defense (6.00) for a grand total of 135.48 points. Instead, my team featuring guys like Jeff Garcia, Curtis Martin, Moulds, and Stallworth netted me a whopping 59.88 points.
Anyway, now that I have totally given up on my Fantasy team for the year, I can focus on my NFL Picks league, which I’m still winning (barely). Here are the Week 14 picks.
The Match-up: New England (-3.5) @ Buffalo
The Skinny: The Patriots can clinch the AFC East with a win and a Miami loss, both of which should happen.
Straight up: New England
Against the Spread: New England
The Match-up: Chicago (+6.0) @ Pittsburgh
The Skinny: Both defenses are virtually impenetrable, especially to offenses guided by Kyle Orton and (potentially) Tommy Maddox. This has the feel of a 13-10 game, doesn’t it?
Straight up: Pittsburgh
Against the Spread: Chicago
The Match-up: Cleveland (+12.5) @ Cincinnati
The Skinny: Outspoken Cincinnati WR Chad Johnson said the Bengals could score 40 this week. You know what? I believe him.
Straight up: Cincinnati
Against the Spread: Cincinnati
The Match-up: Tampa Bay (+5.5) @ Carolina
The Skinny: The NFC South may be the best division in football, and its two top dogs face off this week in Charlotte. This could be the game of the week.
Straight up: Carolina
Against the Spread: Carolina
The Match-up: Indianapolis (-8.0) @ Jacksonville
The Skinny: The Colts have a few high hurdles to get over en route to 16-0, the first of which is in Jacksonville this week.
Straight up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Jacksonville
The Match-up: Houston (+7.0) @ Tennessee
The Skinny: After another come-from-ahead loss last week, it’s only a matter of time until the Texans break through and actually finish a game.
Straight up: Houston
Against the Spread: Houston
The Match-up: St. Louis (+7.0) @ Minnesota
The Skinny: The resurgent Vikings could close to within a game of division-leading Chicago with a win over the Rams and a Bears loss in Pittsburgh.
Straight up: Minnesota
Against the Spread: Minnesota
The Match-up: Oakland (-3.0) @ New York Jets
The Skinny: LaMont Jordan returns to the Meadowlands, and will have to be the focal point of Oakland’s offense (with Kerry Collins benched in favor of Marques Tuiasosopo).
Straight up: Oakland
Against the Spread: Oakland
The Match-up: San Francisco (+16.0) @ Seattle
The Skinny: Shaun Alexander for NFL MVP? He’s as good a choice as anybody.
Straight up: Seattle
Against the Spread: Seattle
The Match-up: New York Giants (-9.0) @ Philadelphia
The Skinny: When is a QB Controversy not a QB Controversy? When the options are Mike McMahon and Koy Detmer.
Straight up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia
The Match-up: Washington (-4.0) @ Arizona
The Skinny: The Redskins got back on the winning track last week in St. Louis. Another road test awaits Washington this week in Arizona.
Straight up: Washington
Against the Spread: Washington
The Match-up: Miami (+13.5) @ San Diego
The Skinny: The Chargers are legit, and may be the second best team in the AFC (sorry, Bengals fans).
Straight up: San Diego
Against the Spread: Miami
The Match-up: Kansas City (+3.0) @ Dallas
The Skinny: Let me think about it…I’ll take K.C.
Straight up: Kansas City
Against the Spread: Kansas City
The Match-up: Baltimore (+14.0) @ Denver
The Skinny: After another loss in their house of horrors, Arrowhead Stadium, the Broncos return to the friendly confines of Mile High to take on the depleted Ravens.
Straight up: Denver
Against the Spread: Denver
The Match-up: Detroit (+6.0) @ Green Bay
The Skinny: It’s an epic running back battle between Artose Pinner and Samkon Gado. Save the uniforms in case Canton comes calling some day.
Straight up: Green Bay
Against the Spread: Green Bay
The Match-up: New Orleans (+10.5) @ Atlanta
The Skinny: I just traded for Aaron Brooks and Joe Horn, so look for three picks from Brooks, a season-ending injury to Horn, and a big Falcons victory.
Straight up: Atlanta
Against the Spread: Atlanta
Friday, December 02, 2005
The Week 13 Picks
As Charles Barkley or Dennis Rodman would tell you, rebounding is the key to success. That concept was employed last week, as The Kid bounced back from a dismal 7-9 and 2-14 Week 11 by nailing 14 winners in Week 12 and putting up a 12-3-1 record against the spread. Think Armando Cuko, but on a much smaller scale.
One quick note before we move onto the picks. Those of you who know me had to know I would hit on the Michael Irvin story that broke this week. Irvin, one of my all-time “favorites,” was arrested for an outstanding speeding ticket in Plano, TX and a search of his vehicle turned up drug paraphernalia (which, of course, he claimed was not his). This, of course, was not Irvin’s first run in with the law. Some years back, he pleaded no contest to drug charges when he was found in a hotel room with hookers and dinner plates full of cocaine. Since then, Irvin has stayed relatively clean (loosely translated, he hasn’t been caught doing anything wrong) and appeared to have turned his life around. I guess not. The lesson? A leopard doesn’t change its spots. Maybe I shouldn’t take such pleasure in a guy being busted for drugs, but when that guy is Michael Irvin, somehow I find it justifiable. Maybe that’s just me. But then, I’m the guy who started the standing ovation when Irvin broke his neck on the Veterans Stadium turf, so I guess we’ve all got issues.
Anyway, here are the Week 13 picks.
The Match-up: Tampa Bay (-3.5) @ New Orleans
The Skinny: The Saints always seem to give the Bucs fits, but that’s due in large part to Deuce McAllister, who is on the shelf. Tampa needs this one to keep their playoff hopes alive.
Straight up: Tampa Bay
Against the Spread: Tampa Bay
The Match-up: Dallas (+3.0) @ New York Giants
The Skinny: The winner takes control of the NFC East – for now.
Straight up: New York Giants
Against the Spread: New York Giants
The Match-up: Green Bay (+7.0) @ Chicago
The Skinny: This season can’t end fast enough for the Packers.
Straight up: Chicago
Against the Spread: Chicago
The Match-up: Cincinnati (+3.5) @ Pittsburgh
The Skinny: Tough one to call, because Big Ben is nicked up (again) and will give it a try with a bruised thumb. If he struggles, so will the Steelers. But I’ll take a shot on them.
Straight up: Pittsburgh
Against the Spread: Pittsburgh
The Match-up: Jacksonville (-3.0) @ Cleveland
The Skinny: David Garrard is in at QB for the Jags, which should not hurt Jacksonville’s playoff run, at least not this week against the Browns.
Straight up: Jacksonville
Against the Spread: Jacksonville
The Match-up: Minnesota (-3.0) @ Detroit
The Skinny: Minnesota has been on a pretty good run lately, and Detroit is in turmoil after Steve Mariucci got axed this week. So why do I like the Lions in an upset?
Straight up: Detroit
Against the Spread: Detroit
The Match-up: Tennessee (+16.0) @ Indianapolis
The Skinny: When you’re 11-0 and chasing history, every week is a challenge, only at various degrees. Monday night against the Steelers was a tough one. This week against Tennessee? Not so much.
Straight up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Indianapolis
The Match-up: Atlanta (+3.0) @ Carolina
The Skinny: Interesting stat of the week #1 – Ron Mexico is 5-0 lifetime against the Carolina Panthers. Good enough for me.
Straight up: Atlanta
Against the Spread: Atlanta
The Match-up: Houston (+8.0) @ Baltimore
The Skinny: Before blowing a 21 point lead in the second half last week, the Texans looked pretty good. If they play like that for 60 minutes, they’ll beat Baltimore. They should, at the very least, give them a game.
Straight up: Baltimore
Against the Spread: Houston
The Match-up: Buffalo (+4.0) @ Miami
The Skinny: Very impressed by the Dolphins last week, hanging 33 on the Raiders in a big road win. Will the Fish keep it going against the Bills?
Straight up: Miami
Against the Spread: Miami
The Match-up: Arizona (-3.0) @ San Francisco
The Skinny: The QB carousel in San Fran is back to rookie Alex Smith. Right, because that worked well the first time around.
Straight up: Arizona
Against the Spread: Arizona
The Match-up: Washington (-3.0) @ St. Louis
The Skinny: Remember when the Redskins were 5-2 and talking about the playoffs? Now they’re 5-6 and fighting to stay out of the NFC East cellar. That’s why they say “NFL” stands for “Not For Long.”
Straight up: St. Louis
Against the Spread: St. Louis
The Match-up: New York Jets (+10.0) @ New England
The Skinny: You know, I don’t think the Jets are a very good football team. It only took me twelve weeks to figure that out.
Straight up: New England
Against the Spread: New England
The Match-up: Denver (-1.0) @ Kansas City
The Skinny: Interesting stat of the week #2 – Denver is 1-3 in their last 4 games at Arrowhead, and the Broncos are 1-13 all time in 14 December games in Kansas City. Again, good enough for me.
Straight up: Kansas City
Against the Spread: Kansas City
The Match-up: Oakland (+11.5) @ San Diego
The Skinny: LaDanian Tomlinson always torches Oakland.
Straight up: San Diego
Against the Spread: San Diego
The Match-up: Seattle (-4.0) @ Philadelphia
The Skinny: High emotions in Philly on Monday as the Eagles pay tribute to the late, great Reggie White. How can you bet against the Eagles when they’ve got #92 in their corner?
Straight up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia
One quick note before we move onto the picks. Those of you who know me had to know I would hit on the Michael Irvin story that broke this week. Irvin, one of my all-time “favorites,” was arrested for an outstanding speeding ticket in Plano, TX and a search of his vehicle turned up drug paraphernalia (which, of course, he claimed was not his). This, of course, was not Irvin’s first run in with the law. Some years back, he pleaded no contest to drug charges when he was found in a hotel room with hookers and dinner plates full of cocaine. Since then, Irvin has stayed relatively clean (loosely translated, he hasn’t been caught doing anything wrong) and appeared to have turned his life around. I guess not. The lesson? A leopard doesn’t change its spots. Maybe I shouldn’t take such pleasure in a guy being busted for drugs, but when that guy is Michael Irvin, somehow I find it justifiable. Maybe that’s just me. But then, I’m the guy who started the standing ovation when Irvin broke his neck on the Veterans Stadium turf, so I guess we’ve all got issues.
Anyway, here are the Week 13 picks.
The Match-up: Tampa Bay (-3.5) @ New Orleans
The Skinny: The Saints always seem to give the Bucs fits, but that’s due in large part to Deuce McAllister, who is on the shelf. Tampa needs this one to keep their playoff hopes alive.
Straight up: Tampa Bay
Against the Spread: Tampa Bay
The Match-up: Dallas (+3.0) @ New York Giants
The Skinny: The winner takes control of the NFC East – for now.
Straight up: New York Giants
Against the Spread: New York Giants
The Match-up: Green Bay (+7.0) @ Chicago
The Skinny: This season can’t end fast enough for the Packers.
Straight up: Chicago
Against the Spread: Chicago
The Match-up: Cincinnati (+3.5) @ Pittsburgh
The Skinny: Tough one to call, because Big Ben is nicked up (again) and will give it a try with a bruised thumb. If he struggles, so will the Steelers. But I’ll take a shot on them.
Straight up: Pittsburgh
Against the Spread: Pittsburgh
The Match-up: Jacksonville (-3.0) @ Cleveland
The Skinny: David Garrard is in at QB for the Jags, which should not hurt Jacksonville’s playoff run, at least not this week against the Browns.
Straight up: Jacksonville
Against the Spread: Jacksonville
The Match-up: Minnesota (-3.0) @ Detroit
The Skinny: Minnesota has been on a pretty good run lately, and Detroit is in turmoil after Steve Mariucci got axed this week. So why do I like the Lions in an upset?
Straight up: Detroit
Against the Spread: Detroit
The Match-up: Tennessee (+16.0) @ Indianapolis
The Skinny: When you’re 11-0 and chasing history, every week is a challenge, only at various degrees. Monday night against the Steelers was a tough one. This week against Tennessee? Not so much.
Straight up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Indianapolis
The Match-up: Atlanta (+3.0) @ Carolina
The Skinny: Interesting stat of the week #1 – Ron Mexico is 5-0 lifetime against the Carolina Panthers. Good enough for me.
Straight up: Atlanta
Against the Spread: Atlanta
The Match-up: Houston (+8.0) @ Baltimore
The Skinny: Before blowing a 21 point lead in the second half last week, the Texans looked pretty good. If they play like that for 60 minutes, they’ll beat Baltimore. They should, at the very least, give them a game.
Straight up: Baltimore
Against the Spread: Houston
The Match-up: Buffalo (+4.0) @ Miami
The Skinny: Very impressed by the Dolphins last week, hanging 33 on the Raiders in a big road win. Will the Fish keep it going against the Bills?
Straight up: Miami
Against the Spread: Miami
The Match-up: Arizona (-3.0) @ San Francisco
The Skinny: The QB carousel in San Fran is back to rookie Alex Smith. Right, because that worked well the first time around.
Straight up: Arizona
Against the Spread: Arizona
The Match-up: Washington (-3.0) @ St. Louis
The Skinny: Remember when the Redskins were 5-2 and talking about the playoffs? Now they’re 5-6 and fighting to stay out of the NFC East cellar. That’s why they say “NFL” stands for “Not For Long.”
Straight up: St. Louis
Against the Spread: St. Louis
The Match-up: New York Jets (+10.0) @ New England
The Skinny: You know, I don’t think the Jets are a very good football team. It only took me twelve weeks to figure that out.
Straight up: New England
Against the Spread: New England
The Match-up: Denver (-1.0) @ Kansas City
The Skinny: Interesting stat of the week #2 – Denver is 1-3 in their last 4 games at Arrowhead, and the Broncos are 1-13 all time in 14 December games in Kansas City. Again, good enough for me.
Straight up: Kansas City
Against the Spread: Kansas City
The Match-up: Oakland (+11.5) @ San Diego
The Skinny: LaDanian Tomlinson always torches Oakland.
Straight up: San Diego
Against the Spread: San Diego
The Match-up: Seattle (-4.0) @ Philadelphia
The Skinny: High emotions in Philly on Monday as the Eagles pay tribute to the late, great Reggie White. How can you bet against the Eagles when they’ve got #92 in their corner?
Straight up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia
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