The Week 14 Picks

Thursday, December 6, 2007

The Match-up: Chicago (+3.0) @ Washington
The Skinny: Joe Gibbs, Hall-of-Famer or no, shouldn’t get a pass for last week’s catastrophe. No truth to the rumor that he hired Chris Webber as his quality control coach for the remainder of the season. As for the Redskins players, emotion will have to carry them through this short week during which they buried their fallen teammate.
Straight Up: Washington
Against the Spread: Washington

Sunday, December 9, 2007

The Match-up: Miami (+7.0) @ Buffalo
The Skinny: So much for the bounces and the law of averages eventually turning in Miami’s favor. It’s starting to look like an 0-16 finish is not only a possibility, but a certainty.
Straight Up: Buffalo
Against the Spread: Buffalo

The Match-up: St. Louis (Off) @ Cincinnati
The Skinny: Now that they’re healthy, the Rams have won three of their last four. Now that they’re all but eliminated in the AFC, the Bengals should implode.
Straight Up: St. Louis
Against the Spread: St. Louis

The Match-up: Carolina (+10.5) @ Jacksonville
The Skinny: Congratulations to the Carolina Panthers for notching their first home victory in 2007. Granted it came against Trent Dilfer and the 49ers, but still, it’s a building block.
Straight Up: Jacksonville
Against the Spread: Jacksonville

The Match-up: Dallas (-10.5) @ Detroit
The Skinny: Remember when the Lions were 6-2 and everybody thought they’d coast into the playoffs? Now at 6-6, the S.S. Lion has taken on water and there’s no pump in sight.
Straight Up: Detroit
Against the Spread: Detroit

The Match-up: Tampa Bay (Off) @ Houston
The Skinny: Here’s why I hate picking these games early. By Sunday, Matt Schaub might be ready to go. If he’s not, Sage Rosenfels will get the nod. Thanks, NFL Network.
Straight Up: Tampa Bay
Against the Spread: Tampa Bay

The Match-up: Oakland (+10.5) @ Green Bay
The Skinny: If there’s a silver lining in Green Bay, it’s that maybe there is a future after Brett Favre. Aaron Rodgers played well in relief against Dallas and had the Packers in position to win if not for that bogus pass interference penalty called by an official 35 yards away from the play and not the two guys standing right there. Talk about the fix being in…
Straight Up: Green Bay
Against the Spread: Oakland

The Match-up: San Diego (Pick) @ Tennessee
The Skinny: Albert Haynesworth for MVP? The Titans DT missed the previous three games, which Tennessee lost. Haynesworth returns, and the Titans defeat Houston and keep their AFC wild card chances alive. Sounds pretty valuable to me.
Straight Up: San Diego
Against the Spread: San Diego

The Match-up: New York Giants (+3.0) @ Philadelphia
The Skinny: Two weeks ago, the Eagles were giving the Patriots everything they could handle in Foxboro and everyone was back in their corner. Last week, A.J. Feeley did his best Eli Manning impression, tossing four picks and forcing everyone off the Eagles bandwagon. Donovan McNabb should return this week, but it may be too little too late.
Straight Up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia

The Match-up: Minnesota (-9.0) @ San Francisco
The Skinny: The one question mark regarding the Vikings and their playoff chances was the play of QB Tavaris Jackson. Well, over the last three games (all Viking wins), Jackson has completed 76 percent of his passes (45/58) for 504 yards, thrown for three scores, and has an average QB rating of 109.8. If he keeps this up, that question mark will become an exclamation point.
Straight Up: Minnesota
Against the Spread: San Francisco

The Match-up: Arizona (+7.0) @ Seattle
The Skinny: All the talk in the NFC is about Dallas and Green Bay. Meanwhile, the Seahawks are 8-4, playing well defensively, and starting to get healthy on offense. Matt Hasselbeck is having an outstanding season. Seattle may just wind up in the NFC Championship game.
Straight Up: Seattle
Against the Spread: Seattle

The Match-up: Kansas City (+6.5) @ Denver
The Skinny: While on record as not being a huge believer in the 2007 Broncos, I’ll take my chances at home with Jay Cutler and Travis Henry against Tyler Thigpen on the road. In case you didn’t know (and why would you?), Thigpen is the third-string QB in Kansas City and will probably start this week. Tyler Thigpen? Seriously?
Straight Up: Denver
Against the Spread: Denver

The Match-up: Pittsburgh (+10.5) @ New England
The Skinny: If the last two weeks are any indication, the Patriots will get the Steelers’ best shot, be trailing in the fourth quarter, get the benefit of a few calls, take the lead on a disputed touchdown by Jabar Gaffney, and escape with a win. Either that or the Steelers will absolutely crush them. Hoping for the latter, expecting the former.
Straight Up: New England
Against the Spread: Pittsburgh

The Match-up: Cleveland (-3.0) @ New York Jets
The Skinny: Yes, Kellen Winslow was forced out and his touchdown should have counted. No, it shouldn’t have even come down to that.
Straight Up: Cleveland
Against the Spread: Cleveland

The Match-up: Indianapolis (-9.0) @ Baltimore
The Skinny: As A.J. Feeley and the Eagles could tell you, it’s hard to play with the same intensity a week after expending everything to try and knock off New England. Monday’s loss will still be fresh in the minds of the Ravens, and the Colts will take advantage.
Straight Up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Indianapolis

Monday, December 10, 2007

The Match-up: New Orleans (-4.0) @ Atlanta
The Skinny: NFL coaches are smart (even Wade Phillips). They even outsmart themselves sometimes. How else can you explain Sean Payton calling a reverse toss sweep with the Saints nursing a three-point lead with about three minutes to go? Of course, the play was botched, Tampa recovered, and the Buccaneers scored the game-winning touchdown. That play and loss may have cost the Saints a shot at the division.
Straight Up: New Orleans
Against the Spread: New Orleans
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Week 13: 7-9 straight up; 6-10 against the spread
Season: 110-82 (.573); 86-95-11 (.475)